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Killa/BAR Thursday-Friday Night Phoenix Suns Collaboration

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Alright, CTG Cappers, I present to you one of the most useful tools in capping the NBA. The BAR/BDK collaboration play(s). So far this season we have collab on just one play. It was a big one and an easy one too. The 2nd half play on New Jersey against Seattle back in November when the Nets were down huge at halftime. We took them -4.5 and they easily covered the second half. Last season at Covers we had several of these in the 2nd half of the season and they were quite successful.

We are both different kinds of handicappers but we alos share a few common beliefs together and when these meet on certain games we get a real good feel for them. Killa is one of the premier situational and dog cappers(let alone props) I have ever had the pleasure of meeting in my time on the net. When I find a dog or dogs I like and we are on same page my confidence level rises to unforseen heights on the wager. With that....I will now present the analysis of the next two Phoenix Suns games from myself and Killa. Many points may be repeated but the point is to get as much information out as possible to everyone.

BAR

Thursday night the Suns invade Dallas for a matchup with the Mavericks. Earlier this year Dallas got off the scnied at Phoenix with a 119-112 win. Since that time Phoenix has simply been magnificent. Remember, one philosphy of mine is to play teams in first matchup next year after a previous spring playoff loss. I laid off this first game due to Dallas need for a win. Now, I am presented with a very nice situation with the Suns going into Dallas off multiple revenge. Lets also think about fact that Suns streak is over now. There is no mounting pressure. These guys just play loose.

Other good factors...these I got from Killa..

-Stack is out for this game. Thats a loss of firepower
-Dirk is under the weather.
-Different look now with Amare more at full speed

The play: Phoenix ML +114 2 units

Friday night the Suns return home to play the resurgent NY Knicks. Now, we are hoping for a Suns win to make this play look great. A Suns loss tonight does not take away the Knicks play on Friday in my mind. Too many points.

What I love about New York right now:
-This group has banded together since the melee at MSG. They have recorded OT wins against two good teams in Detroit and Utah. They survived a battle of attrition against the Bobcats. They also beat a surging Chicago team. The Philly loss was to be expected. It was one of the bigger letdown spots of the year and I played it real small and should have capitalized more.
-I watched the DET game twice. This Knick team is playing together and really blending. Steph isn't looking over his shoulder at Nate. Craw knows he will get consistent minutes. The Clippers could learn from the Knicks about feeding a dominant big man early.
-The dirty guys..Lee and Blakman change a game when they get in. Not to sound too old school but they remind me of old DET teams that had Rodman and Salley off bench as total change of paces that could dominate stretches w/o necc scoring points.

Now, the Suns will be on a sandwich game. They head here to Auburn Hills on New Years Eve for a matinee against the Stons. That just happens to be a triple revenge game in itself. I think they will look past NY as well.

Look at recent matches between Knicks and Suns. That right there warrants thoughts on NY.

Key matchup: Eddy Curry against Amare/etc. Curry should be huge the first 7-8 minutes of each half before he gets worn down. Watch this closely.

The Play: New York +12.5 -105 3 units


Killa

<TABLE class=tborder id=post cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_>This seems like a very good situational strategy, starting with the TNT game tonight. Phoenix has had this game circled for quite some time, as this is their chance to jump into the Dallas/Spurs upper echelon. Under normal circumstances, I might lay off this, but I love how it sets up. We have Phoenix's winning streak done with, which is huge. We have Stackhouse out, which is huge, more than most people might think. He kills Phoenix, he lit them up when they played in November. And we have Dirk with a cold, as sort of an added bonus. Not having Stack doesn't matter vs. Seattle and Charlotte, but against Phoenix you need all the depth you can get. What can I say about Phoenix? The team is straight loaded, in every possible way. Anything I say about them, or any players I talk about, would be telling you guys shit you already know. The key is not necessarily the big All-Stars, but the guys like Barbosa and Bell who can kill you if you don't pay attention to them. Phoenix should have that one big run in them of 13-2 or so that will put this game away and send the Dallas fans home disappointed (And then we play Dallas plus the points the next time they play in Phoenix).

Now, with regard to tomorrow. I'm 7-1 betting on or against my team this year. I'm very selective with them, I don't bet them every game like many posters do with their home team (Macwestie? lol). This seems like a great spot though. I made some lines earlier, I put this one at +10, +10.5 max. They throw out +12.5. Total sandwich home game for Phoenix, in between giant road games @ Dallas and @ Detroit. Awful scheduling by the league, but that's the way it goes. Phoenix won't even be close to being psyched for this game, win or lose vs. Dallas. Knicks will grab an early lead and end up losing probably by 6 or 8. Curry should rack up some points down low and if Billups couldn't cover my boy Steph, how the hell will Nash stop him?

Killa's Plays:
(12/28) Phoenix +2 (-107 @ Pinnacle)
(12/29) Knicks +12.5 (-105 @ Pinnacle)

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Phoenix looks bro...hope they are on their game cause i got the Over...
 
totally agree on the Suns ML tonight.

Not a fan of betting dogs to the Suns, so GL to you two with that...I certainly won't consider the Suns chalk tomorrow.

:shake:
 
Killa

I have been a knick fan since 91 im talkin gerald wilkins bo kimble anthony bonner days lol lol Im with ya tommorow my only concern is the 3's we give up with that zone. if phx is hittin them we can lose big similar to the wash game earlier this year
 
Sav-

Understandable concerns. However, 12.5 is just not the right line. This one is all about VALUE in the line, in a great situational spot.
 
Gotta say I liked the Suns play and the Knicks were the first bet that caught my eye as well. 12.5 on a b2b with travel after fighting for the crown of best team in the West? Seems a bit off to me. Knicks will be taken lightly.
 
we have covered our last 3 vs the Suns and won SU last meeting in the garden in OT
 
guess we're all screwed huh? those who backed the suns mostly went for ML. lol. the streak continues. when the suns are dogged by 2.5pts or more, the suns are 0-4SU 3-1ATS.

:hairout:
 
oh and the suns havent won of a b2b with the first being on the road and next at home. only time was earlier in the year and they lost both sides with the second being home vs dallas. 12.5 is just too much im sure it will fall
 
Actually, I got really lucky on this one. I jumped on at halftime to get the Suns at plus-money. One point winner. Thanks for the tip, guys. I needed it after what Alabama did--and what A&M is now doing--to me today.
 
We'll the now the big question is how do the Suns respond?, because now they are thinking about tommorrows game. It would be hard to bet against the Suns for me, but I would not have much more interest in taking away 12 points either.
 
I like the Knicks here as well. The motivation is there for them. The Suns are in a tight scheduling situation and may not play up to their potential. Either way, we all know the Suns do blowout teams by DD regularly, but the Knicks have been winning games lately and have been slightly stepping up their game against tough opponents. Why wouldn't it be worth it to take a shot with them getting a DD spread for a situational game?
GL on the pick and you can bet I'll likely be taking a bite of this pie too.
I'll see you at the ticket window.
 
I like that situational spot for Knicks too but in last 10 games they´ve played just two games on the road and got killed in both.-16(IND) and -18(PHI).And their recently wins at home?Yes nice victories against Detroit,Utah and Chicago,teams that Knicks weren´t even supposed to compete with.Other thing I don´t like is Knicks´three OT games in last 5.I see that as a typical backdoor cover,something Phoenix is used to.GL.
 
i think it was a decent spot for NY IF Phoenix pulled it out last night...now it seems like a spot to just lay off,

Phoenix should try and run on NY though, last night they got out of their game and they lost a tough one to Dallas...they wont make the same mistake twice...Phoenix will get theirs on NY....the only question is how many NY gets...i feel they get enough to push the total OVER soo that looks like the only play IMO
 
We had the right side with Phoenix last night guys... Just a horrible ending to that game and we got screwed

:down:
 
Killa said:
We had the right side with Phoenix last night guys... Just a horrible ending to that game and we got screwed

:down:

killa...phoenix have 6 turnover in the 4q.that killing the suns ml...
 
this is where i have issues...the night before with the miami push, you got screwed in every which way....however in that Dallas/Phoenix game, your mad b/c Phoenix blew a lead late in the game...well they've blown tons of just as substantial leads this season, not to mention that Dallas was covering for the majority of the game. Phoenix came on and covered more than Dallas in the second half but this game was a toss up...when your faced with a matchup like this, i personally feel that you have to cap the game like it'd been a wash for the first 45 minutes and try and figure out who can get the late stops and get the late baskets...this game was a complete toss up IMO....with that said, that's why i feel there was SOME value in taking the points with Phoenix...and there was, you got a push out of it...but b/c they were the team that happened to be leading late does not mean you were moosed or on the right side....with games that are essentially a pk like that, you just have to see who was covering longer and who performed late...in both cases Dallas had a slight edge...no moose, just a push...when you lose contests by 1 it does not always mean you were unlucky...nor when you cover by one does it mean you were lucky
 
nice writeups killa and big al.

sorry that phoenix didnt win SU b.a.r, hopefully that doesnt add incentive today and make them cover today

with yall on this +12, BOL
 
billivy said:
this is where i have issues...the night before with the miami push, you got screwed in every which way....however in that Dallas/Phoenix game, your mad b/c Phoenix blew a lead late in the game...well they've blown tons of just as substantial leads this season, not to mention that Dallas was covering for the majority of the game. Phoenix came on and covered more than Dallas in the second half but this game was a toss up...when your faced with a matchup like this, i personally feel that you have to cap the game like it'd been a wash for the first 45 minutes and try and figure out who can get the late stops and get the late baskets...this game was a complete toss up IMO....with that said, that's why i feel there was SOME value in taking the points with Phoenix...and there was, you got a push out of it...but b/c they were the team that happened to be leading late does not mean you were moosed or on the right side....with games that are essentially a pk like that, you just have to see who was covering longer and who performed late...in both cases Dallas had a slight edge...no moose, just a push...when you lose contests by 1 it does not always mean you were unlucky...nor when you cover by one does it mean you were lucky

I agree, bill. Close doesnt necessarily mean unlucky. Last night I had a total that looked dodgy from very early on scrap in, was I lucky? The opposition was held to exactly the average points the Spurs were conceding in that spot - that wasnt lucky, that was normal. And because they conceded that many, it made for a blowout, which made for Under, if even only just. So in my book, close there didnt mean lucky.
Its abnormal occurrences, in my book, making for pushes or losses that you can point to and say "without that (in some cases, extreme) abnormality, I'd have had a winner, so I was unlucky". Whether PHX turning it over 6 times in any given period is normal, or abnormal, is open to question.
 
Well I'm sure I speak for both of us when I apologize to any tailers. Our collabs usually don't go down like this but this didn't work out. We had the right idea situationally, and I personally stand by this strategy. Had Phoenix not blown that 9-point lead with a few minutes left (via ridiculous turnovers) and walked out of Dallas with a win, then there's no way they win the 1Q by 20 tonight. That's how the NBA works, and part of me knew this might either be a 2-0 or 0-2 proposition. The idea was right, it just didn't work out.

We'll be back. Trust me.

:shake:
 
Anymore Collaboration (s) like that and we are sending the both of you back down to the minors...I mean Covers.....just kidding! NY is a damn tough animal to figure right now. Looks like they can get it done at home with the crowd behind them but the road is a different animal...hopefully they are underavlued after this game....I believe its customary to send refunds to your tailers as well...(lol)

Saturday is another day ...BOL guys
 
Thanks Nut... Yeah, the first quarter was just too much to overcome for my boys tonight... Phoenix was steaming after that loss, which I did not intend on lol
 
Been a tough week all the way around....BAR wasn't fucking around when he said this is trap season...
 
Killa said:
Well I'm sure I speak for both of us when I apologize to any tailers. Our collabs usually don't go down like this but this didn't work out. We had the right idea situationally, and I personally stand by this strategy. Had Phoenix not blown that 9-point lead with a few minutes left (via ridiculous turnovers) and walked out of Dallas with a win, then there's no way they win the 1Q by 20 tonight. That's how the NBA works, and part of me knew this might either be a 2-0 or 0-2 proposition. The idea was right, it just didn't work out.

We'll be back. Trust me.

:shake:

i agree with that, this was either gonna be a 2-0 or an 0-2 proposition...hence i figure there's more value in layin off the phoenix game and waiting...you might lose some value should phoenix had won...but if you got the bet in early enough when the line came back out, i dont think youd lose much...the knicks catching all those points would have been a great bet if phoenix had won...a gamble could have been taking the knicks before the phoenix game...it would have guarenteed the best possible line of course off of a suns win...but propositions that either go 0-2 or 2-0 is kinda just like a double bet on the phonenix game...which im sure you didnt wanna do
 
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