Kentucky vs. Auburn: NCAAF Week 4 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn
New-Look Auburn Offense
Auburn begins this season with a new offensive coordinator in Chad Morris.
By all accounts, some adjustment is required.
A few new reported features of Auburn’s Morris-led offense will include a greater involvement of tight ends.
Also, passing will become more of a focus.
This focus, however, is puzzling in two respects.
One, Bo Nix is not an accurate passer. He ranked 84th last season in FBS passing efficiency and only managed to complete 57.6 percent of his passes.
Two, Morris has a terrible recent history in terms of his team’s success in both passing and scoring offense.
At Arkansas, for example, he tried out seven different starting quarterbacks in 22 games while leading the 128th-ranked pass attack.
Given Nix’s transparent struggles as a passer, it’s hard to see how Morris has much to build off of.
Auburn Rushing Trend
One thing will remain the same: Auburn will need to run the ball well in order to have a chance at covering the spread.
Dating to last season, the Tigers have lost their last three games ATS when they’ve failed to exceed 130 yards rushing.
Auburn Offensive Line
Auburn’s run-blocking unit must adjust to a new offensive coordinator and also to a new position coach in Jack Bicknell Jr.
Most decisively, the Tiger offensive line loses four starters.
There are a lot of games that one could point to — the Florida/Miami opener last season is one — in order to elucidate the deleterious effects of not having chemistry in the offensive line.
Most especially in the opener, expect lack of coordination, poor communication, and other problems in Auburn’s now unproven offensive line.
Auburn Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
JaTarvious Whitlow, formerly Auburns’ top running back, has transferred out of Auburn.
While there remain plenty of running backs to help take his place, the Tigers’ running game will regress thanks to poorer run-blocking.
In contrast, Kentucky’s run defense promises to improve strongly thanks to its returning ability.
The Wildcats are deep in the interior of their defensive line.
For starters, look for Quinton Bohanna, a 367-pound monster who accrued 18 tackles, three tackles for loss, plus a sack last season. His known strength is stopping the run.
Marquan McCall brings similar numbers, size, and skill set after playing in every game last year.
Also, since Kentucky is so deep at outside linebacker, Josh Paschal is able to return to his natural defensive end position where the Wildcats now boast four returners.
As a freshman defensive end, Paschal accrued 3.5 sacks, while demonstrating the ability to reach opposing quarterbacks that will plague Bo Nix.
With Nix struggling to be effective as a passer — a struggle that promises to continue against a Kentucky pass defense that stacks its nationally second-best (in terms of opposing passing yards) secondary with a former four-star transfer from LSU — Auburn’s offense will struggle with one-dimensionality.
Kentucky’s Pass Attack vs. Auburn Pass Defense
Last year, Auburn tended to field five defensive backs. Four of those were two starting cornerbacks and two safeties who have departed the program.
Perhaps as critically, the Tiger secondary will get less support from a pass rush nearly half of whose sack total came from All-American, SEC Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Brown and fellow defensive lineman Marlon Davidson.
Even with those two studs, Auburn had regressed in its pass rush relative to 2018. So replacing especially Brown is a tall ask and Auburn will need more help beyond that in order to prevent opposing quarterbacks from having all day to throw.
To be fair, Auburn’s secondary will still feature experience. But regression will be inevitable as lower-quality players — the former backups-- are thrust into starting roles.
For Kentucky, one may forget that the Wildcats had a strong quarterback. After Terry Wilson went down, Kentucky’s pass attack became an incompetent, unconventional mess, leaving an image that may misshape people’s perceptions of its capability.
But Wilson is back. In his last full season as starter, which was 2018, he completed 67.6 percent of his pass attempts while remaining efficient against stronger competition.
In 2019, Wilson seemed to have had shed his interception problem before suffering his season-ending injury.
While he shares Nix’s ability to run, he is a more efficient passer.
When he drops back to pass, he’ll have his own legs to rely upon — he ran for over 70 yards in four different games in 2018.
But he benefits, as well, from plenty of returning experience.
It’s easy to discount Wildcat receivers based on their numbers last year. But discounting them requires one to forget just how bad their quarterback situation was.
Josh Ali is Kentucky’s leading receiver after finishing second in receptions and third in yards. After missing last season, Isaiah Epps is back and poses a vertical threat.
Kentucky Rush Attack vs. Auburn Run Defense
Whereas Auburn misses its top talent on the defensive line, Kentucky has, per PFF, three of the nation’s top 30 offensive linemen.
Unlike Auburn, the Wildcats also return their starting running back. Asim Rose ran for 5.5 YPC, which he’ll improve upon thanks to Wilson’s ability to demand the defense’s attention as a passer.
The Verdict
Offensively, Kentucky will have a more natural time being multi-dimensional with the return of able passing to go along with top-level run-blocking in support of the team’s returning starting running back.
Defensively, UK’s secondary will have no problem withstanding the inefficient Nix. In a new-look offense and with a new offensive line, Auburn will struggle to sustain drives.
Best Bet: Wildcats +8 (-105) with Heritage
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn
New-Look Auburn Offense
Auburn begins this season with a new offensive coordinator in Chad Morris.
By all accounts, some adjustment is required.
A few new reported features of Auburn’s Morris-led offense will include a greater involvement of tight ends.
Also, passing will become more of a focus.
This focus, however, is puzzling in two respects.
One, Bo Nix is not an accurate passer. He ranked 84th last season in FBS passing efficiency and only managed to complete 57.6 percent of his passes.
Two, Morris has a terrible recent history in terms of his team’s success in both passing and scoring offense.
At Arkansas, for example, he tried out seven different starting quarterbacks in 22 games while leading the 128th-ranked pass attack.
Given Nix’s transparent struggles as a passer, it’s hard to see how Morris has much to build off of.
Auburn Rushing Trend
One thing will remain the same: Auburn will need to run the ball well in order to have a chance at covering the spread.
Dating to last season, the Tigers have lost their last three games ATS when they’ve failed to exceed 130 yards rushing.
Auburn Offensive Line
Auburn’s run-blocking unit must adjust to a new offensive coordinator and also to a new position coach in Jack Bicknell Jr.
Most decisively, the Tiger offensive line loses four starters.
There are a lot of games that one could point to — the Florida/Miami opener last season is one — in order to elucidate the deleterious effects of not having chemistry in the offensive line.
Most especially in the opener, expect lack of coordination, poor communication, and other problems in Auburn’s now unproven offensive line.
Auburn Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
JaTarvious Whitlow, formerly Auburns’ top running back, has transferred out of Auburn.
While there remain plenty of running backs to help take his place, the Tigers’ running game will regress thanks to poorer run-blocking.
In contrast, Kentucky’s run defense promises to improve strongly thanks to its returning ability.
The Wildcats are deep in the interior of their defensive line.
For starters, look for Quinton Bohanna, a 367-pound monster who accrued 18 tackles, three tackles for loss, plus a sack last season. His known strength is stopping the run.
Marquan McCall brings similar numbers, size, and skill set after playing in every game last year.
Also, since Kentucky is so deep at outside linebacker, Josh Paschal is able to return to his natural defensive end position where the Wildcats now boast four returners.
As a freshman defensive end, Paschal accrued 3.5 sacks, while demonstrating the ability to reach opposing quarterbacks that will plague Bo Nix.
With Nix struggling to be effective as a passer — a struggle that promises to continue against a Kentucky pass defense that stacks its nationally second-best (in terms of opposing passing yards) secondary with a former four-star transfer from LSU — Auburn’s offense will struggle with one-dimensionality.
Kentucky’s Pass Attack vs. Auburn Pass Defense
Last year, Auburn tended to field five defensive backs. Four of those were two starting cornerbacks and two safeties who have departed the program.
Perhaps as critically, the Tiger secondary will get less support from a pass rush nearly half of whose sack total came from All-American, SEC Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Brown and fellow defensive lineman Marlon Davidson.
Even with those two studs, Auburn had regressed in its pass rush relative to 2018. So replacing especially Brown is a tall ask and Auburn will need more help beyond that in order to prevent opposing quarterbacks from having all day to throw.
To be fair, Auburn’s secondary will still feature experience. But regression will be inevitable as lower-quality players — the former backups-- are thrust into starting roles.
For Kentucky, one may forget that the Wildcats had a strong quarterback. After Terry Wilson went down, Kentucky’s pass attack became an incompetent, unconventional mess, leaving an image that may misshape people’s perceptions of its capability.
But Wilson is back. In his last full season as starter, which was 2018, he completed 67.6 percent of his pass attempts while remaining efficient against stronger competition.
In 2019, Wilson seemed to have had shed his interception problem before suffering his season-ending injury.
While he shares Nix’s ability to run, he is a more efficient passer.
When he drops back to pass, he’ll have his own legs to rely upon — he ran for over 70 yards in four different games in 2018.
But he benefits, as well, from plenty of returning experience.
It’s easy to discount Wildcat receivers based on their numbers last year. But discounting them requires one to forget just how bad their quarterback situation was.
Josh Ali is Kentucky’s leading receiver after finishing second in receptions and third in yards. After missing last season, Isaiah Epps is back and poses a vertical threat.
Kentucky Rush Attack vs. Auburn Run Defense
Whereas Auburn misses its top talent on the defensive line, Kentucky has, per PFF, three of the nation’s top 30 offensive linemen.
Unlike Auburn, the Wildcats also return their starting running back. Asim Rose ran for 5.5 YPC, which he’ll improve upon thanks to Wilson’s ability to demand the defense’s attention as a passer.
The Verdict
Offensively, Kentucky will have a more natural time being multi-dimensional with the return of able passing to go along with top-level run-blocking in support of the team’s returning starting running back.
Defensively, UK’s secondary will have no problem withstanding the inefficient Nix. In a new-look offense and with a new offensive line, Auburn will struggle to sustain drives.
Best Bet: Wildcats +8 (-105) with Heritage
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