GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
KENTUCKY OAKS
#1 EVER SO CLEVER - Slow development as a 2 year old and in his last showed drastic improvement. Not completely out of it on her best but I don't think I can include except a saver for minor spoils.
#2 LOCKDOWN - Ran a distant 2nd to Miss Sky Warrior in the Gazelle. Lightly raced and showing improvement each race. Slow starter with inside position. With a rail saving trip, if she can avoid traffic, she is a very live longshot!
#3 MOPOTISM - Consistent but not fast enough. Not for me.
#4 PARADISE WOODS - Lightly raced and last race was an eye popping win and figure at Santa Anita. Anything close to that race puts her right there and gives her an excellent chance to win. Likely favorite. It's a long trip from Santa Anita to Louisville and it's a different race course/surface. Throw in the rain and mud and there are even more questions than answers. However, the track today has been favoring horses on the front end so she will be tough. Certainly one of the likely winners but there is much more value elsewhere and not sure she will come close to replicating her last effort. If she does, watch out.
#5 JORDAN'S HENNY - Steady consistent development but not fast enough. Not for me.
#6 VEXATIOUS - Has yet to run out of the money in all 5 career races but this is a major step up in competition. Could catch a small piece near bottom of ticket at best.
#7 FARRELL - Has won at Churchill previously and comes off three consecutive wins in New Orleans including in the Fairgrounds Oaks, which has proven to be an excellent prep for this race in previous years. Has won in the mud. Don't think I see him on the win end, but could clearly hit the ticket.
#8 SAILOR VALENTINE Won the Ashland at Keeneland in her last out at big odds but don't think she is fast enough. Not for me.
#9 WICKED LICK If she beats three horses in here, I'd be surprised. Next!
#10 MISS SKY WARRIOR - Last year as a two year old, she was clearly the best of this crop. Has won 5 of her 6 races and she crushed the field last out in the Gazelle. Along with #4 Paradise Woods, they are the two, who if they run anything close to their last race, the rest are racing for minor spoils. However, these are lightly raced three years old and you can often expect some regression after an eye popping standout performance. Obvious win contender along with #4 but with regression and sprinkle in a wet surface, there is vulnerability.
11 TEQUILITA - 2nd in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and this is her second race off of a bit of a layoff. Could hit bottom of ticket but doesn't seem fast enough to contend for top two honors.
12 DADDY'S LIL DARLING Closed well into a slow pace to finish 2nd in the Ashland to #8. Could sneak into bottom of ticket but not fast enough to contend for big prizes.
13 ABEL TASMAN Not the best of draws from Post 13. Ran a very distant 2nd to Paradise Woods in the Santa Anita Oaks last out, a race where she was heavily bet to favoritism. Tremendous disparity in odds this time out against #4 Paradise Woods. She has a penchant for breaking slowly so her trip will be of paramount importance. She now has switched trainers to legendary Bob Baffert, who doesn't have a runner in this year's Derby so this will be his focus. With a better post, she would definitely have been my top choice. Still like her a lot but will need a little racing luck. Third fastest horse on sheet numbers to this point and could improve today. Definitely using.
14 SALTY Won the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time out. Only 4th career race and has shown improvement each time out. Has gotten caught wide in each race so far and this post could really hurt based upon her style. With a better post, she would have been in the mix for sure. Tough to back with confidence out in Post 14. Good horse but tough to use in top two positions based upon what will likely be a tough trip. Not completely out of the question.
It is clear the two most likely winners are #4 PARADISE WOODS and #10 MISS SKY WARRIOR. If either runs anything close to their last, you can forget the other 12 horses having a chance to win. Also, the track has been favoring horses on the front end today so it does add to the appeal of the top two horses. However, horse racing is also about value and not who is the likeliest to win. #2 LOCKDOWN has huge value if she works out a trip. #13 ABEL TASMAN would have been my top choice had she drawn a better post but still is a must use with some value. #7 FARRELL and #14 SALTY won't surprise me if either hits the ticket (but I won't play on the top end) although #14 SALTY is more compromised because of the post. FARRELL wouldn't be a complete shock here but I am not using on top of ticket.
So for me, it will be mostly combinations of #2 LOCKDOWN, #13 ABEL TASMAN with #4 PARADISE WOODS and #10 MISS SKY WARRIOR. In triples and superfectas, I will sprinkle in Farrell and SALTY for 3rd and 4th and play a few savers with a few others in minor positions.
#1 EVER SO CLEVER - Slow development as a 2 year old and in his last showed drastic improvement. Not completely out of it on her best but I don't think I can include except a saver for minor spoils.
#2 LOCKDOWN - Ran a distant 2nd to Miss Sky Warrior in the Gazelle. Lightly raced and showing improvement each race. Slow starter with inside position. With a rail saving trip, if she can avoid traffic, she is a very live longshot!
#3 MOPOTISM - Consistent but not fast enough. Not for me.
#4 PARADISE WOODS - Lightly raced and last race was an eye popping win and figure at Santa Anita. Anything close to that race puts her right there and gives her an excellent chance to win. Likely favorite. It's a long trip from Santa Anita to Louisville and it's a different race course/surface. Throw in the rain and mud and there are even more questions than answers. However, the track today has been favoring horses on the front end so she will be tough. Certainly one of the likely winners but there is much more value elsewhere and not sure she will come close to replicating her last effort. If she does, watch out.
#5 JORDAN'S HENNY - Steady consistent development but not fast enough. Not for me.
#6 VEXATIOUS - Has yet to run out of the money in all 5 career races but this is a major step up in competition. Could catch a small piece near bottom of ticket at best.
#7 FARRELL - Has won at Churchill previously and comes off three consecutive wins in New Orleans including in the Fairgrounds Oaks, which has proven to be an excellent prep for this race in previous years. Has won in the mud. Don't think I see him on the win end, but could clearly hit the ticket.
#8 SAILOR VALENTINE Won the Ashland at Keeneland in her last out at big odds but don't think she is fast enough. Not for me.
#9 WICKED LICK If she beats three horses in here, I'd be surprised. Next!
#10 MISS SKY WARRIOR - Last year as a two year old, she was clearly the best of this crop. Has won 5 of her 6 races and she crushed the field last out in the Gazelle. Along with #4 Paradise Woods, they are the two, who if they run anything close to their last race, the rest are racing for minor spoils. However, these are lightly raced three years old and you can often expect some regression after an eye popping standout performance. Obvious win contender along with #4 but with regression and sprinkle in a wet surface, there is vulnerability.
11 TEQUILITA - 2nd in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and this is her second race off of a bit of a layoff. Could hit bottom of ticket but doesn't seem fast enough to contend for top two honors.
12 DADDY'S LIL DARLING Closed well into a slow pace to finish 2nd in the Ashland to #8. Could sneak into bottom of ticket but not fast enough to contend for big prizes.
13 ABEL TASMAN Not the best of draws from Post 13. Ran a very distant 2nd to Paradise Woods in the Santa Anita Oaks last out, a race where she was heavily bet to favoritism. Tremendous disparity in odds this time out against #4 Paradise Woods. She has a penchant for breaking slowly so her trip will be of paramount importance. She now has switched trainers to legendary Bob Baffert, who doesn't have a runner in this year's Derby so this will be his focus. With a better post, she would definitely have been my top choice. Still like her a lot but will need a little racing luck. Third fastest horse on sheet numbers to this point and could improve today. Definitely using.
14 SALTY Won the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time out. Only 4th career race and has shown improvement each time out. Has gotten caught wide in each race so far and this post could really hurt based upon her style. With a better post, she would have been in the mix for sure. Tough to back with confidence out in Post 14. Good horse but tough to use in top two positions based upon what will likely be a tough trip. Not completely out of the question.
It is clear the two most likely winners are #4 PARADISE WOODS and #10 MISS SKY WARRIOR. If either runs anything close to their last, you can forget the other 12 horses having a chance to win. Also, the track has been favoring horses on the front end today so it does add to the appeal of the top two horses. However, horse racing is also about value and not who is the likeliest to win. #2 LOCKDOWN has huge value if she works out a trip. #13 ABEL TASMAN would have been my top choice had she drawn a better post but still is a must use with some value. #7 FARRELL and #14 SALTY won't surprise me if either hits the ticket (but I won't play on the top end) although #14 SALTY is more compromised because of the post. FARRELL wouldn't be a complete shock here but I am not using on top of ticket.
So for me, it will be mostly combinations of #2 LOCKDOWN, #13 ABEL TASMAN with #4 PARADISE WOODS and #10 MISS SKY WARRIOR. In triples and superfectas, I will sprinkle in Farrell and SALTY for 3rd and 4th and play a few savers with a few others in minor positions.
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