Kapalua -- Tourney of Champions

[B.A.R.]

Lets try and get a thread going each week of the tournaments and see what we can get going. We have a solid group here that seems to like capping golf so lets get 2018 started up...

No European Tour this week **


This is obviously a winners only tournament. (Justin Thomas last year)

Factors here...

-Previous performance at venue
-How long of a break from competitive golf
-Fall performance
-How they spent the Holidays (i.e. are they ready to play or just be there this week?)
-Injuries

 

[ProV1Colt]

I'm down. Hell we could do a Fantasy Golf if you want. I play in one on Yahoo Fantasy, played in for years

Think we could get a few?

 

[gps_3]

I'm down. I play in a one and done every year, like to get ideas on that from week to week as well

 

[B.A.R.]

Never played in one myself.

 

[gps_3]

Never played in one myself.

It’s pretty fun, but insanely difficult

 

[gps_3]

My book is offering Hideki -130 vs Rahm. Seems pretty low for a guy who has a couple of top 3 finishes here against a first timer

Also kind of like Leishman +165 vs Koepka, who’s had a wrist injury

 

[Alan Tongue]

Hate this event, prefer to skip it. From memory guys who were active late in the year (Vijay, the Aussies) always did well. Spieth played in Sydney the last few years and has a win here. Thomas played into late Oct and Nov before winning last year. Guys with their "eye in" do well, but who does have it?

You can land a jumbo on these fairways. 10 of last 12 winners finished T4 for putting averages. The last seven defending champs have finished top 7, so Thomas for T5, T10 and H2H's look ok.

But, Sony winners the following week are generally on the back up. Thomas did the double last year, other winners were well beaten at Kapalua, but won the following week.

 

[gps_3]

From what I’ve read, first timers rarely do well at this tournament. Locker in the two matchups from above, will be all I have for this one. Like Alan said, hard to know who’s locked in already

 

[KJ]

Gonna try to spitball here, first thing's first on this course is that most everyone will be in the fairway as Alan said, so the wind on approach (and putts) will be key. The 4 round forecast calls for 17/19/19/20 for wind. There are no calls for rain.

No reason to go nuts here, small stabs on Schaufelle top 10 +150 and top 5 +400, also Rahm top 5 +200

 

[KJ]

Lol Fowler going untucked Hawaiian...great stuff

 

[Coolslaw1]

S. Kim over J Vegas -110 also went J Blixt over B. Koepka, paying back a buck 60 (+160) 2nd round only

 

[B.A.R.]

S. Kim over J Vegas -110 also went J Blixt over B. Koepka, paying back a buck 60 (+160) 2nd round only

good luck

 

[gps_3]

My book is offering Hideki -130 vs Rahm. Seems pretty low for a guy who has a couple of top 3 finishes here against a first timer

Also kind of like Leishman +165 vs Koepka, who’s had a wrist injury

Went 1-1. The Leishman over Koepka was never in doubt. Can't be too mad losing the other. Only 3 players beat Hideki, Rahm just happened to be one of them. Like most, I think Rahm is going to have a monster year. I think Koepka will be on my fade list for now. Was listening to a podcast over the weekend, and they were talking about how Koepka's stokes gained: tee to green were not near where most elite players rank, but it seems the perception of Koepka is that he is elite, or at least near elite. Might be able to take advantage in the coming weeks until the books catch on, or he raises his game. Not going to look to fade him in majors though, since he raises his game as well as anyone those 4 a year

 

[KJ]

Isn't his wrist less than 100%?

 

[gps_3]

Isn't his wrist less than 100%?

Yes, and that was my reason for fading him this past weekend, but the lack of elite tee to green game might have me fading him even if healthy. Obviously depends on matchups, but if he's getting matched up with top 10 type players early on, I think there may be money to be made

 

[Gandolf]

With his win this week

Most consecutive years with a PGA win:

Jack 17
Arnie 17
Billy C 16
Tiger 14
Merry Mex 14
Hagen 12
DJ 11
Slammin' Sammy 11
Lighthorse Harry 11
Diegel 11

That is getting into one heck of a stratosphere for D.J.