Kansas State to Run 'Wild' Over UCLA
Kansas State (7-5) plays UCLA (6-6) on Tuesday, December 26, at 9 ET in the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix, Arizona. The Bruins, currently led by offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, are 2-point underdogs.
The key match-up is Kansas State's rush attack against UCLA's run defense. Kansas State's offense is run-first, ranking 21st in run-play percentage. Alex Barnes is the Wildcats' top running back, leading the team with 5.2 yards per carry.
Skylar Thompson is K-State's third-string quarterback. But the freshman finished the season with a completion % over 70, 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions and 105 rushing yards in his last 2 games combined, including an upset road win at Oklahoma State.
Thanks to their run game, the Wildcats rank 45th in average TOP. K-State's offensive philosophy will force UCLA's defense to confront its weakness against the run. The Bruins rank 5th-to-last in average yards per carry allowed.
Time of possession has critical betting significance against UCLA: in 6 of their 8 non-covers, the opponent won the battle for TOP.
Controlling the clock will allow K-State's run attack to wear down UCLA's already weak run defense. K-State's run game can also keep UCLA's elite quarterback Josh Rosen off the field, less able to establish a rhythm and less able to do his usual damage.
Wide Receiver Byron Pringle complements K-State's grinding mentality with his big-play ability. The speedster leads the team with 705 receiving yards and 25 yards per catch.
UCLA's weak run game, that averages 95th in yards per carry, keeps it one-dimensional on offense. The Bruins rank 4th in pass play percentage.
Facing a pass-first offense will be nothing new for Kansas State's defense because they play in the pass-happy Big 12. Three Big 12 teams, including Kansas State, allow the top-10 highest frequency of pass plays.
The Wildcats' experienced secondary features cornerbacks Duke Shelley and D.J. Reed, who lead the team with combined 20 passes defensed. The secondary receives support from versatile linebackers who likewise defend the pass effectively. Trent Tanking and Jayd Kirby lead K-State linebackers with 4 passes defended each.
Kirby also posses a threat in the opposing backfield, leading the team with 10.5 tackles for loss. Coach Bill Snyder is known for recruiting talented defensive linemen. Defensive tackle Will Geary leads the line with 9 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Defensive end Reggie Walker finished the season strong, with 4 TFL and 2 sacks in his last 3 games.
It's difficult for a pass defense to have pretty statistics in the Big 12. But K-State has easily covered against the two most talented pass-first teams that they have faced, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
The Verdict
K-State can control this game with its grinding rush attack that can help keep Rosen off the field. K-State's battle-tested defense will more effectively stop Rosen than UCLA's bottom-ranked run defense can stop K-State's rush attack.
Injuries are something for bettors to keep track of. Two starting defensive backs and a backup cornerback are listed as 'questionable' for K-State's secondary. Also, UCLA's second-best defensive lineman in terms of tackles for loss is 'questionable' for UCLA's run defense.
The situation speaks for K-State: UCLA is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS away from home this season and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. K-State misses its offensive coordinator, but will maintain its offensive identity under eternal head coach Bill Snyder. UCLA has the coaching disadvantage with Fisch, who has been head coach for 1 game in his career, currently at the helm.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State -2
Kansas State (7-5) plays UCLA (6-6) on Tuesday, December 26, at 9 ET in the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix, Arizona. The Bruins, currently led by offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, are 2-point underdogs.
The key match-up is Kansas State's rush attack against UCLA's run defense. Kansas State's offense is run-first, ranking 21st in run-play percentage. Alex Barnes is the Wildcats' top running back, leading the team with 5.2 yards per carry.
Skylar Thompson is K-State's third-string quarterback. But the freshman finished the season with a completion % over 70, 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions and 105 rushing yards in his last 2 games combined, including an upset road win at Oklahoma State.
Thanks to their run game, the Wildcats rank 45th in average TOP. K-State's offensive philosophy will force UCLA's defense to confront its weakness against the run. The Bruins rank 5th-to-last in average yards per carry allowed.
Time of possession has critical betting significance against UCLA: in 6 of their 8 non-covers, the opponent won the battle for TOP.
Controlling the clock will allow K-State's run attack to wear down UCLA's already weak run defense. K-State's run game can also keep UCLA's elite quarterback Josh Rosen off the field, less able to establish a rhythm and less able to do his usual damage.
Wide Receiver Byron Pringle complements K-State's grinding mentality with his big-play ability. The speedster leads the team with 705 receiving yards and 25 yards per catch.
UCLA's weak run game, that averages 95th in yards per carry, keeps it one-dimensional on offense. The Bruins rank 4th in pass play percentage.
Facing a pass-first offense will be nothing new for Kansas State's defense because they play in the pass-happy Big 12. Three Big 12 teams, including Kansas State, allow the top-10 highest frequency of pass plays.
The Wildcats' experienced secondary features cornerbacks Duke Shelley and D.J. Reed, who lead the team with combined 20 passes defensed. The secondary receives support from versatile linebackers who likewise defend the pass effectively. Trent Tanking and Jayd Kirby lead K-State linebackers with 4 passes defended each.
Kirby also posses a threat in the opposing backfield, leading the team with 10.5 tackles for loss. Coach Bill Snyder is known for recruiting talented defensive linemen. Defensive tackle Will Geary leads the line with 9 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Defensive end Reggie Walker finished the season strong, with 4 TFL and 2 sacks in his last 3 games.
It's difficult for a pass defense to have pretty statistics in the Big 12. But K-State has easily covered against the two most talented pass-first teams that they have faced, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
The Verdict
K-State can control this game with its grinding rush attack that can help keep Rosen off the field. K-State's battle-tested defense will more effectively stop Rosen than UCLA's bottom-ranked run defense can stop K-State's rush attack.
Injuries are something for bettors to keep track of. Two starting defensive backs and a backup cornerback are listed as 'questionable' for K-State's secondary. Also, UCLA's second-best defensive lineman in terms of tackles for loss is 'questionable' for UCLA's run defense.
The situation speaks for K-State: UCLA is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS away from home this season and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. K-State misses its offensive coordinator, but will maintain its offensive identity under eternal head coach Bill Snyder. UCLA has the coaching disadvantage with Fisch, who has been head coach for 1 game in his career, currently at the helm.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State -2
