Today's Plays Include a (+185) MLB Parlay
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, May 27, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
Who Pitches for Kansas City?
The Royals start Brad Keller tonight.
Keller suffers a 1-4 record, but he can hardly be blamed for this record.
The Royals have produced two runs or fewer in four of his eight starts.
His lack of run support largely explains why he struggles to win games.
A tendency to receive little run support is, by itself, not worth considering because it is contingent on factors that the pitcher has no control over.
It is still meaningful, though, to consider that the "under" is hitting in 57.1 percent of Keller's starts this season because factors that he does have control over influence this trend.
For starters, Keller tends to go deep into outings. He averages over six innings per start.
His endurance means that Kansas City doesn't have to send too many relievers into the game, which is a good thing because the Royals don't have many good relievers.
What Pitches Does Keller Throw?
Keller has an unusual combination of primary pitches.
His favorite pitch is his slider, which he throws 38 percent of the time.
He throws two other pitches with just over 25 percent frequency, his fastball and sinker.
Keller's pitch selection is intelligent because he throws his best stuff most often.
His slider is his best pitch in that it yields a .125 BA and .222 slugging rate.
Crucially, he is comfortable throwing it against both left- and right-handed batters.
Keller's ability to navigate left-handed batters with his slider will help him tonight because the Twins have a few noteworthy left-handed batters.
How Does Minnesota Match Up With Keller?
Keller promises to thrive in Minnesota primarily for three reasons.
One, he has a strong history in the Twins' venue.
In four starts in Target Field, he enjoys a 2.70 ERA.
Two, he matches up well with Twin batters.
They rank 22nd in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Three, Twin batters are, overall, in a rut.
They've scored two runs in each of their last three games.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Since his rough opening start, tonight's Twin starter, Bailey Ober, has been solid.
In each of his last four starts -- he has five starts on the season -- Ober allowed zero earned runs in Boston before allowing one run to the White Sox, one to Detroit, and one in Kansas City.
There are two strong reasons for not worrying about the fact that the Royal lineup will see Ober a second consecutive time.
One, Ober has always performed more strongly when facing the same lineup in a second consecutive game.
Even though he didn't suffer a tough-luck outing like Keller did in his most recent start, which came against Minnesota, in which Keller's ERA masked a strong FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), he could still last longer and allow fewer runs in tonight's rendition.
Two, Ober mixes things up well. He doesn't rely too much on a single pitch. He ably keeps batters off balance with strong changes in pitch selection, location, and velocity.
Ober's ability to mix things up keeps him from becoming predictable or easy to figure out for opposing batters.
What Pitches Does Ober Throw?
Ober throws four pitches with over 12 percent frequency, the curveball, changeup, slider, and fastball.
He matches up well against Royal batters in that they rank 22nd in slugging .358 against his pitches from righties.
Expect little from Carlos Santana, for example, who is 0-for-6 lifetime against Ober.
Trend
A key trend explains why I like the Twins tonight. This trend, in addition to matchup details and consideration of the situation, also reinforces my reasoning for the "under."
The Royals are coming off a road win. After a road win this season, Kansas City is 0-6.
In those six losses, the Royals scored over three runs once.
The one exception came when they scored four runs in a blowout loss in hitters-friendly Coors Field.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins ML at -171 & Under 8 at -125 at +185 odds with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, May 27, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minnesota
Who Pitches for Kansas City?
The Royals start Brad Keller tonight.
Keller suffers a 1-4 record, but he can hardly be blamed for this record.
The Royals have produced two runs or fewer in four of his eight starts.
His lack of run support largely explains why he struggles to win games.
A tendency to receive little run support is, by itself, not worth considering because it is contingent on factors that the pitcher has no control over.
It is still meaningful, though, to consider that the "under" is hitting in 57.1 percent of Keller's starts this season because factors that he does have control over influence this trend.
For starters, Keller tends to go deep into outings. He averages over six innings per start.
His endurance means that Kansas City doesn't have to send too many relievers into the game, which is a good thing because the Royals don't have many good relievers.
What Pitches Does Keller Throw?
Keller has an unusual combination of primary pitches.
His favorite pitch is his slider, which he throws 38 percent of the time.
He throws two other pitches with just over 25 percent frequency, his fastball and sinker.
Keller's pitch selection is intelligent because he throws his best stuff most often.
His slider is his best pitch in that it yields a .125 BA and .222 slugging rate.
Crucially, he is comfortable throwing it against both left- and right-handed batters.
Keller's ability to navigate left-handed batters with his slider will help him tonight because the Twins have a few noteworthy left-handed batters.
How Does Minnesota Match Up With Keller?
Keller promises to thrive in Minnesota primarily for three reasons.
One, he has a strong history in the Twins' venue.
In four starts in Target Field, he enjoys a 2.70 ERA.
Two, he matches up well with Twin batters.
They rank 22nd in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Three, Twin batters are, overall, in a rut.
They've scored two runs in each of their last three games.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Since his rough opening start, tonight's Twin starter, Bailey Ober, has been solid.
In each of his last four starts -- he has five starts on the season -- Ober allowed zero earned runs in Boston before allowing one run to the White Sox, one to Detroit, and one in Kansas City.
There are two strong reasons for not worrying about the fact that the Royal lineup will see Ober a second consecutive time.
One, Ober has always performed more strongly when facing the same lineup in a second consecutive game.
Even though he didn't suffer a tough-luck outing like Keller did in his most recent start, which came against Minnesota, in which Keller's ERA masked a strong FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), he could still last longer and allow fewer runs in tonight's rendition.
Two, Ober mixes things up well. He doesn't rely too much on a single pitch. He ably keeps batters off balance with strong changes in pitch selection, location, and velocity.
Ober's ability to mix things up keeps him from becoming predictable or easy to figure out for opposing batters.
What Pitches Does Ober Throw?
Ober throws four pitches with over 12 percent frequency, the curveball, changeup, slider, and fastball.
He matches up well against Royal batters in that they rank 22nd in slugging .358 against his pitches from righties.
Expect little from Carlos Santana, for example, who is 0-for-6 lifetime against Ober.
Trend
A key trend explains why I like the Twins tonight. This trend, in addition to matchup details and consideration of the situation, also reinforces my reasoning for the "under."
The Royals are coming off a road win. After a road win this season, Kansas City is 0-6.
In those six losses, the Royals scored over three runs once.
The one exception came when they scored four runs in a blowout loss in hitters-friendly Coors Field.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins ML at -171 & Under 8 at -125 at +185 odds with BetOnline
