Bleeding Kansas Will Experience Boston Massacre on National TV
The Royals host Boston tonight at 7:15 ET on Fox. Boston is primed to replicate last night’s domination over the Royals.
Boston Red Sox (60-29) at Kansas City Royals (25-62)
MLB Pick: Boston RL
Boston’s David Price (9-6, 4.28 ERA) looks fade-worthy after he suffered the worst start of his career. Bettors shouldn’t worry about Price, who just happened to be facing one of the strongest lineups, that of the Yankees, on a night when his stuff wasn’t there for him. The absence of quality in his stuff is evident in the reduction of spin rate that his pitches suffered. Before July 1, Price’s pitches averaged 2082 RPM (rotations per movement). On July 1, that number dropped to 2014. The reduction of spin was most apparent in his sinker, which he consequently could not throw as often as he likes to. It’s his favorite pitch on the season, but against New York he had to cut its average usage in half. On July 1, his sinker experienced 2089 RPM, down 71 RPM from his prior season average. Spin is important for a pitcher because it makes his pitches more deceptive in that batters think they see a hittable pitch, but end up whiffing. So without that quality in his stuff, Price’s pitches were slammed. There is a precedent for the way Price felt in his last start. For example, in a June 2 start Price’s sinker had only one more RPM than it did on July 1. But, in his next start, his sinker’s RPM rebounded to 2167 and he had a much better outing.
All signs point to a rebound effort from Price tonight. The southpaw relies on a variety of pitches—he throws four, the fastball, sinker, cutter and change-up— with over 14% frequency. His favorite pitch is the sinker, which he throws 35% of the time. Despite his last start, opponents are batting under .200 against it. He therefore relies on it most in all scenarios both to left- and right-handed batters. Its spin, nearly identical release points as his fastball, which obscures from batters which pitch is approaching them, and strong vertical and horizontal points allow it to be effective despite its concentrated location in the middle region of the zone.
Two Royals have strong career numbers against Price, but neither of them are reliable. Salvador Perez is batting .208 with only one double in his past seven days, Alcides Escobar is enduring a 2-for-21 slump. The Royals match up poorly against Price, slugging .215 in the past month against Price’s four pitches from lefties. They’ve lost seven in a row and have only five wins since June. In over a third of their games since June, they’ve scored either one or zero runs.
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Brad Keller (2-3, 2.09 ERA) counters for KC. The rookie has allowed one run in his past two outings, but he could be flat after throwing over 100 pitches in consecutive outings.
Keller’s favorite pitch is his 95-mph fastball, which he throws with nearly 50% frequency and utilizes most in all scenarios. He complements it with a sinker and slider. Keller induces ground balls with almost 60% frequency, particularly thanks to the spin and the location of his sinker down and away and of his slider, which he places with nearly 60% frequency in the lowest row of the zone.
Boston matches up well with Keller, ranking six in slugging against the high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastball from righties and first in slugging against his three pitches, even though they are massively underachieving against them based on the metric SLG-xSLG. Watch for Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. They're slugging over .500 in their past seven days.
The bullpen constitutes another advantage for Boston. It ranks first in FIP, while KC’s ranks last. It’s also fresh after Thursday’s rest day and easy win last night. Trust Boston, which is yielding +18.2 units against right-handed starters, to win a fifth straight.
The Royals host Boston tonight at 7:15 ET on Fox. Boston is primed to replicate last night’s domination over the Royals.
Boston Red Sox (60-29) at Kansas City Royals (25-62)
MLB Pick: Boston RL
Boston’s David Price (9-6, 4.28 ERA) looks fade-worthy after he suffered the worst start of his career. Bettors shouldn’t worry about Price, who just happened to be facing one of the strongest lineups, that of the Yankees, on a night when his stuff wasn’t there for him. The absence of quality in his stuff is evident in the reduction of spin rate that his pitches suffered. Before July 1, Price’s pitches averaged 2082 RPM (rotations per movement). On July 1, that number dropped to 2014. The reduction of spin was most apparent in his sinker, which he consequently could not throw as often as he likes to. It’s his favorite pitch on the season, but against New York he had to cut its average usage in half. On July 1, his sinker experienced 2089 RPM, down 71 RPM from his prior season average. Spin is important for a pitcher because it makes his pitches more deceptive in that batters think they see a hittable pitch, but end up whiffing. So without that quality in his stuff, Price’s pitches were slammed. There is a precedent for the way Price felt in his last start. For example, in a June 2 start Price’s sinker had only one more RPM than it did on July 1. But, in his next start, his sinker’s RPM rebounded to 2167 and he had a much better outing.
All signs point to a rebound effort from Price tonight. The southpaw relies on a variety of pitches—he throws four, the fastball, sinker, cutter and change-up— with over 14% frequency. His favorite pitch is the sinker, which he throws 35% of the time. Despite his last start, opponents are batting under .200 against it. He therefore relies on it most in all scenarios both to left- and right-handed batters. Its spin, nearly identical release points as his fastball, which obscures from batters which pitch is approaching them, and strong vertical and horizontal points allow it to be effective despite its concentrated location in the middle region of the zone.
Two Royals have strong career numbers against Price, but neither of them are reliable. Salvador Perez is batting .208 with only one double in his past seven days, Alcides Escobar is enduring a 2-for-21 slump. The Royals match up poorly against Price, slugging .215 in the past month against Price’s four pitches from lefties. They’ve lost seven in a row and have only five wins since June. In over a third of their games since June, they’ve scored either one or zero runs.
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Brad Keller (2-3, 2.09 ERA) counters for KC. The rookie has allowed one run in his past two outings, but he could be flat after throwing over 100 pitches in consecutive outings.
Keller’s favorite pitch is his 95-mph fastball, which he throws with nearly 50% frequency and utilizes most in all scenarios. He complements it with a sinker and slider. Keller induces ground balls with almost 60% frequency, particularly thanks to the spin and the location of his sinker down and away and of his slider, which he places with nearly 60% frequency in the lowest row of the zone.
Boston matches up well with Keller, ranking six in slugging against the high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastball from righties and first in slugging against his three pitches, even though they are massively underachieving against them based on the metric SLG-xSLG. Watch for Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. They're slugging over .500 in their past seven days.
The bullpen constitutes another advantage for Boston. It ranks first in FIP, while KC’s ranks last. It’s also fresh after Thursday’s rest day and easy win last night. Trust Boston, which is yielding +18.2 units against right-handed starters, to win a fifth straight.
