Just for Fun: Trying to think how an idiot would think

[Seabass]

Awhile ago, someone posted in website promotions www.thecollegekid.com, where they essentially found some college kid making his first bets and asked him to pick locks, with the idea that he would be so bad that you could fade him and make profit over the long run. Once in awhile, I decide to go for that. I have a friend who is new at gambling, and sometimes I feel like its just 10x easier to tell him which picks he made that were dumb, than it actually is for me to pick the winners myself.

I want to finally track how I do at this. For the record, I have already made my plays...Miami, Denver ML, Tampa Bay, and Oakland. Now, I'm trying to pretend I'm a first time gambler, and figure out what I would have picked. To anyone insulted by this---don't be---like I said, I'm on the same side as the "idiot" of my brain in the Tampa Bay game.

I don't want to kill myself tracking this, so just call all plays one unit at -110.

Kansas City +2.5 over Oakland
Baltimore -3 over Buffalo
New England -16 over Miami
Tampa Bay +2.5 over Detroit
Tennessee -1 over Houston

Therefore, keeping with the fade the idiot rule, the actual picks I would play would be:

Oakland -2.5
Buffalo +3
Miami +16
Detroit -2.5
Houston +1

GL to all-hope your picks all win (well, except the ones I'm on in real life)

 

[sjsjsj]

wouldnt this be the same as fading the public?

 

[Seabass]

wouldnt this be the same as fading the public?

Probably. Fading the public bothers me a bit, though, in the sense that sometimes that public will have sound rationale. I've never thought fading the public would be able to hit at a high enough percentage to make money while giving up juice, but I think that if you can find a way to isolate out the worst sector of the public, you might have a shot.

In other words, the public is actually the portion of the public that actually gambles.

I really want to fade the public that does not gamble, the people who just watch Sportscenter and the nationally televised games...but those are the folks that we don't have data on.

'an_horse'

 

[Seabass]

The idiot had a pretty good day. On the opposite side, I went 0-3. I think its clear who the idiot is, just look at my NFL record.

Anyway...

Oakland -2.5 LOSS
Buffalo +3 WIN
Miami +16 LOSS
Detroit -2.5 WIN
Houston +1 LOSS

2-3, -1.3u YTD

The idiot is pumped with the gain of money, and wants to press. But not at any more than 1 unit per, because ol Seabass cant track him that carefully.

He loves Pittsburgh -3.5 tonight, and he LOOOOOVES Indy -3 tommorrow.

The plays:

DENVER +3.5
JACKSONVILLE +3

 

[SF_capper]

I think you gotta make all MNF games that he likes 2 units

 

[Seabass]

SF_Capper actually makes a decent point, therefore, Jacksonville tonight will count for 2 units.

The fade is currently 3-3, -.3u.

For the record, I am siding with the idiot tonight as I too am on Indy. Whoops. Seriously, I may need to start betting the NFL purely with this strategy...

 

[budhachi]

I ran an ofice pool last year and faded the hell out of the squares! My company said no more....bummer city.

Good luck

 

[Seabass]

I ran an ofice pool last year and faded the hell out of the squares! My company said no more....bummer city.

Good luck

Those are the kind of people you probably want to fade. That seems like an almost ideal sample.

 

[Seabass]

3-4, -2.5 units after the idiot came through on Indianapolis.

This week the idiot isn't crazy about the card.

Of course, he can't keep away.

He likes the Giants, Saints, and Brownies...but he LOVES the Colts.

Therefore, in fading...take...

MIAMI DOLPHINS +10
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers +1
ST. LOUIS RAMS +3
CAROLINA PANTHERS +6.5

 

[BigRaktor]

Damn...I guess I'm your Huckleberry!

I wouldn't be surprised to see the idiot go 3-1 on those...2-2 for sure.

BOL either way :cheers:

 

[Seabass]

Wouldn't be surprised either RAK...GLTU

 

[Seabass]

For what its worth, btw, my actual plays are Washington, Saint Louis, Oakland, and Jacksonville...not the idiot fades, other than STL.

I just have too much trouble not taking INDY -6.5, but I'll be responsible and stay away...

 

[cubsker]

I did an office pool of around 30 people last year for college football. I had people pick ATS the 15 biggest games of each week. Overall, they combined to hit right at 52%.

 

[Seabass]

Thanks for the feedback Cubsker but the issue with that is that since you have 30 people picking, odds are for half the games, they will pick 15 on one side and 15 on the other, which skews it to 50%.

What you really would want to do is identify the games where 80% were on the same side, and take that side...or always track the side that the majority took. Still, that gets back into the idea of fading the public, when I'm trying to really find the worst segment of the public.