June 2nd mlb discussion

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Right off the jump I’m kinda shocked at the total in the pads/giants game, 7 really? Has anyone watched Webb his last 2 starts? I think he has something wrong mechanically right now, he is missing location and by a lot, he has either been so far off the plate nobody chasing or catching a lot the plate and getting shelled. He is actually striking out more ppl than I can ever recall but his efficiency has totally went out the window. Several pads hitters have had good success vs him and they hung a 5 spot against him earlier this year. Last season he had a few decent starts vs pads but in both of them he scattered 10 hits, that not a recipe for long term success and as I mentioned right now something isn’t right with him, maybe he figures it out but this total he would have to do a compete turn around from his last few which isn’t easy to do. Kolek pitching for pads has been ok but he has had the good fortune of facing several mediocre offenses in his starts. I think his best case is 5+ innings allowing 3 or so runs. Combine the 2 and I just don’t see a world we don’t go well over 7 runs. And w the way Webb has looked I think the price is crazy!!

Pads/giants ov 7
Pads/sf Ff ov 3.5-135
Pads ml +154
Pads tt ov 2.5 -156

I think that team total insane, I don’t even mind laying the -154 here, I’d be shocked if this didn’t get bet up overnight.
 
I’m going Severino outs today. He’s gone 6 in his last three starts and 4 of the last 5. Backing an A’s pitcher in that park is always an adventure, but like the stats here.
 
askias said:
I’m going Severino outs today. He’s gone 6 in his last three starts and 4 of the last 5. Backing an A’s pitcher in that park is always an adventure, but like the stats here.
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Think he just an out or 2 from avg 6 per start on the season so tough to argue with that. 9 of his 12 he has went 6+, only down side is 2 of the 3 he failed to make it were at home, so he damn near been automatic away. That said those starts were against yanks and Mets who both better offenses than the twins I think. He has reasonably good numbers vs most the twins hitters, only 2 have exit velo over 95 mph and both those were in just a few at bats. He has as many k’s as hits allowed vs their lineup. He did get shelled by twins in a start last year where he only went 3 innings but looking at the overall success against the individual hitters on team id say that prob more an anomaly than the norm. What the juice like I havnt looked, long as it not expensive I’d say it a pretty decent play on a pretty short card.
 
These pricks put Ryan at 6.5 k’s, was really hoping for a 5.5 here with the way A’s been swinging and missing a bunch lately. Hard to trust him to get 7 when we can’t trust his nitwit manager to even leave him in the game when he cruising like last game vs Tampa.
 
Holy shit, they posted a 19.5 out total for Webb? Not sure what I’m missing but the guy I’ve seen the last 2 starts there no damn way he pitching 6.2 innings! Maybe behind the scenes they have figured out the problem? This makes no sense to me at all. He only went 5 innings vs pads and that when he was pitching like his normal self. Not sure if I’m being set up here or what but I’m gonna have a lot invested in fading him here cause I don’t buy for a minute he pitches past the 6th

Webb un 19.5 total outs
 
Cannon numbers been way better at home but he has only had 3 home starts, even in those 3 he has only went 6 innings in one of them. In his 2 years in the league he has faced the tigers 4x and hasn’t went past 5 innings in any of the 4. In those 4 games tigers are slugging .563, lefties have a ops just above .800 and tigers have several key bats that hit from the left side. Carpenter and McKinistry both rocking exit velo above 95mph against him. Asking him to go 6 innings feels like a lot here.
 
2daBank said:
Holy shit, they posted a 19.5 out total for Webb? Not sure what I’m missing but the guy I’ve seen the last 2 starts there no damn way he pitching 6.2 innings! Maybe behind the scenes they have figured out the problem? This makes no sense to me at all. He only went 5 innings vs pads and that when he was pitching like his normal self. Not sure if I’m being set up here or what but I’m gonna have a lot invested in fading him here cause I don’t buy for a minute he pitches past the 6th

Webb un 19.5 total outs
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Webb 2.41 FIP with 10 K's and 1 BB in his last start. 1.28 FIP in his start against the Pads. Overall 2.82 ERA with 2.19 FIP.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Webb 2.41 FIP with 10 K's and 1 BB in his last start. 1.28 FIP in his start against the Pads. Overall 2.82 ERA with 2.19 FIP.
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He had a lot of k’s which will always make the analytics like him but I watched both those last 2 and it wasn’t the same guy from earlier in the season. He did get better as the game went on but he looked like he was having the same issues he did vs kc. Not locating his pitches well at all, running counts full and giving in opposed to walking guys. Maybe he worked things out in the second half that tigers start but even after settling down he was going deeper into counts than we accustomed to seeing with him. I guess it just a matter of trusting what I saw over the analytics that I never use as the be all end all since they place way to much emphasis on k’s and penalize pitchers for making good pitches that get quick outs. Prior to these last 2 starts there no question he was pitching about the best I’ve ever seen him cause he was still efficient while also racking up the most k’s his career. I’ll go down swinging saying his last 2 starts were not as good the advanced stuff says, maybe the 2nd half the Detroit game was better but the 1st several innings looked just as bad the kc game where he was missing so far off the plate he was continuously putting himself in hitter counts and paid for it. I never been scared of going against the analytics whenever I see something different, sometimes im right, sometimes not so much and I suppose the last 3 innings last start he might have figured things out. I just don’t think the guy I watched his last few outings has a chance in hell of pitching past the 6th or keeping pads from scoring some runs.
 
All that said that is probably why they hanging such a strong out total for him. That actually makes me feel better opposed to worrying he had a bullpen session I don’t know about and fixed the things I’ve seen w him lately.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Webb 2.41 FIP with 10 K's and 1 BB in his last start. 1.28 FIP in his start against the Pads. Overall 2.82 ERA with 2.19 FIP.
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He only walked 1 in the kc debacle as well but he missed so badly off the plate early in counts he ended up in hitter counts and catching a lot of plate. None those hits were luck or accidents, the ball was being barreled up consistently.
 
I actually played something of his vs Detroit thinking he would bounce back after the kc outing and the 1st 3 innings looked exactly the same to me.
 
Last thing on Webb, let’s forget these last 2 games and just look at what pads hitters have done vs him.

Machado .371 avg .486 slug in over 30 at bats

Arreaz 8 for 13

Sheets 5 of 10 with a .700 slug

Merril 5 of 7

Wade .400

He has had pretty good success vs tatis and bogarts but that still lot of guys who have hit him well in games well before these last 2 where I feel like something could be wrong.
 
Oh and last 2 years Webb has faced pads 5x only once was he able to pitch past the 6th inning so a 19.5 out total seems incredibly bold
 
Ohtani was held hitless last night. He hasn’t had b2b games without a hit since the beginning of May! Now he gets a dude making his 1st start of the year! Feel like we can play Ohtani ov 2.5 h/r/rbi every game and make money!
 
Cannon un 17.5 outs. Tigers have mashed him which makes sense as he struggles vs left handed hitters. Outside tork tigers best hitters are lefties, in 4 starts vs tigers he has only made it even 5 just one time, I just don’t think he can go 6 innings.
 
We gotta decide if Civale has lost something or getting a late start to the season it just taking him a few starts to get back into his old form? He has gotten slightly better in each of his 3 starts, he has a great history vs the reds. It looks to me like the easing him back and his pitch count has been slightly higher each start. I think this being his 4th start he should be stretched out enough to go longer than he has thus far. His last start he went 5 innings on just 79 pitches vs Red Sox, when you look at how successful he been against reds hitters I think asking him to get 16 outs isn’t unreasonable at all. Nice price on him also.

Civale ov 15.5 outs
 
So the totals have went up in that pads/sf game but they holding firm with that -174 on giants. Unless that is just a fade of pads starter I don’t get it. There is no world where giants should ever be laying this price to pads. I will admit I think when it comes to sides the ones priced around -160 to -180 for some reason I don’t do as well with. Dogs a little better, I’m absolutely awful trying to play favs in this range and always have been. I’d bet money my worst Roi the last 10-15 years would be when I try to play favs in that range!
 
Flaherty ov 6.5 k’s.. I’m never right w this prick but +102 against a lineup of kids I never heard of I think it worth a shot.
 
Full card outside all the plays in pads game from 1st post:

Civale ov 15.5 outs
Cannon un 17.5 outs
Flaherty ov 6.5 k’s
Marquez ov 16.5 outs
Webb un 19.5 outs

Greene ov 1.5 h/r:rbi
Kieth ov 1.5 h/r/rbi
Arreaz ov 1.5 h:r/rbi
Machado ov 1.5 h:r/rbi
Ohtani ov 2.5 h/r/rbi

Lot of plays. Lol.
 
think you will see Ohtani on most my cards going forward, especially against bums, probably judge also. Those 2 are just out of this world right now and they not really getting taxed on the 2.5 number and 2.5 doesn’t scare me in the slightest seeing how a bomb cashes, both guys hit way up in lineup so they have good chances for runs as well as RBI’s.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, last start was more like what we expect from him.

Hopefully he can string a few together like that one.
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I never know wtf to expect. He really only had that one half a season in stl where he was consistently dominant. Outside that he was a crap shoot. Then he leaves and starts looking like the guy we thought he be, this year he back to being pretty inconsistent but this lineup chisox throwing out tonight looks like not only a minor league lineup but maybe double a more than triple a! If Jack can’t dominate these guys I give up on him!
 
2daBank said:
I never know wtf to expect. He really only had that one half a season in stl where he was consistently dominant. Outside that he was a crap shoot. Then he leaves and starts looking like the guy we thought he be, this year he back to being pretty inconsistent but this lineup chisox throwing out tonight looks like not only a minor league lineup but maybe double a more than triple a! If Jack can’t dominate these guys I give up on him!
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He punched out 8 vs cle who not a high k team. Earlier in the year he punched out 9 vs pads who def not a high k team. But then he gets rocked by the god awful rangers lineup, a not very good Houston lineup, a bad Milw lineup!
 
I was close to playing max Meyer k’s but he appears to be a bigger head case than Flaherty. Guy punches out 14 in a game vs reds, then he has 2 games with no k’s which is practically impossible to do this day and age!
 
2daBank said:
I was close to playing max Meyer k’s but he appears to be a bigger head case than Flaherty. Guy punches out 14 in a game vs reds, then he has 2 games with no k’s which is practically impossible to do this day and age!
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To me that's more a recipe for a conclusion on the Reds than one on Meyer
 
If you wanna go off what I think the strongest to weakest

Webb un 19.5 outs
Cannon un 17.5 outs
Civale ov 15.5 outs

Those the 3 pitcher props I feel best about.

On the hitter side not as easy but we call Ohtani tops, Arreaz 2nd, and Kieth 3
 
Last edited:
KJ said:
To me that's more a recipe for a conclusion on the Reds than one on Meyer
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Well 14 is a lot even for them, plus he has had several others where he punched out 8 or 9, 14 might be somewhat a indictment on reds but I can’t recall another starter racking up even double digits on them (it might have happened but not often), this Meyer kid is Def all over the place but he absolutely has the stuff to punch out a lot of hitters. I don’t think he has any idea how to pitch yet or how to use his mix. Before pads blew him up I mentioned he was throwing his slider almost 50% the time, against pads he only threw it 26%. He all over the place with his pitch selection, I get you should Taylor your plan to opponent to a degree but you should also be throwing your strongest pitches the most regardless of opponent imo
 
Watching mlb network they making a good case that Soto showing signs of hitting like he being paid to! Have to start paying attention to him
 
Side wise other than pads I hate to say it but think some value w rox. Ff maybe better? I trust Marquez to give us a consistent performance and as I been saying the Meyer kid for fish could punch out 12 or give up 12 runs, no clue, lol. At that price might be worth a stab. Brewers as small dogs makes some sense but I prefer just rolling with the civale out total. Ff under makes sense to me even if I hate unders in that park. That bout it, you could prob talk me into mets but Blackburn vs lad lineup? I dunno.
 
2daBank said:
Side wise other than pads I hate to say it but think some value w rox. Ff maybe better? I trust Marquez to give us a consistent performance and as I been saying the Meyer kid for fish could punch out 12 or give up 12 runs, no clue, lol. At that price might be worth a stab. Brewers as small dogs makes some sense but I prefer just rolling with the civale out total. Ff under makes sense to me even if I hate unders in that park. That bout it, you could prob talk me into mets but Blackburn vs lad lineup? I dunno.
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Mate, there will never be value with the Rox. Text from ProV last night paints the perfect picture.

Scottie Rox.jpg
 
Agree Rox are dog shit but there’s still value, just gotta track, easy for me because it’s the home team. Value comes at +2.5 or 3 runs, at times these are mildly juiced, been several series where they’ve been profitable going this route, Cubs most recent.

Books know where they stand with Rox but I’d rather look towards those juiced +2-3 runs vs blindly tailing -300 favorites.

Just imo in today’s Bank & KJ show. GL on your plays
 
laopadak said:
Agree Rox are dog shit but there’s still value, just gotta track, easy for me because it’s the home team. Value comes at +2.5 or 3 runs, at times these are mildly juiced, been several series where they’ve been profitable going this route, Cubs most recent.

Books know where they stand with Rox but I’d rather look towards those juiced +2-3 runs vs blindly tailing -300 favorites.

Just imo in today’s Bank & KJ show. GL on your plays
Click to expand...
Definitely far from my show haha
 
We got Civale outs over, cannon got knocked out early so that good. Thought we had a shot w Marquez but like I said that one is @VirginiaCavs fault! Lol. The worst thing going on right now is I literally picked the only 2 tigers hitters that havnt cashed!
 
So glad the 2.5 scared me off carpenter. That prick just had to hit a 2nd home run right there or greene’s single woulda drove a run in and he woulda cashed. As is still need another hit, run or rbi. The good news is lot of time and tigers are teeing off!
 
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