June 10th discussion thread

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Ok you slackers I’m slightly disappointed there wasn’t a thread up already and the level of precipitation the last few days!! It was one thing other years when I talked to myself on here but now I don’t have Theresa to make listen to my bs!

Havnt capped anything yet so just 1st thoughts.

Rays getting plus money again? I know it not a lot but I’m pretty sure they the better team, at worst it a wash but Red Sox are throwing out another pitcher that has a tendency to turn into a gas can at any moment. I’ll have to make sure Giolito hasn’t just dominated rays or something but I’d bet probably not.

Dunno how in the world blow jays are dogs? It crazy this been like the most overvalued team in baseball for 2 years (no exaggeration) but now all a sudden they playing good ball and not being priced that way! I still think cardinals record a little fugazi def don’t think they on the Al east level. Mikolas is probably a poor mans Bassittt, they both capable of QS any time out but i think Mikolas has a slightly tougher job but I feel like the offenses fairly close and overall team ops they within 3 points of each other. I just don’t think cards should be favs over a hot Al east team.

I thought Yankees opened too expensive but somebody or somebodies hit that number. This game a mystery to me cause I have no clue how good this Cameron kid is for kc? All he does is go out every game and pitch 6+ and keeps kc in the game, cards got a 2nd look at him and still couldn’t do shit, that surprised me. Yanks will be a test but at this point it hard not to think he will keep it close even tho you know fried won’t be giving up much. That kinda tho point about the price tho, kc pen is fantastic so if we go into the later innings in a close game the price to high on yanks. That said I’m not sure if this kid legit or not? If he is the Ff under or game under should be in play:

All I can think is over in zona, I like playing Seattle overs when they get away from their home park, Pfaadt been dog shit, no clue what wrong w him but he 26 and apparently has already peaked and falling off? I don’t think he has lost velo or spin I would have to look to make sure but had that been the case i doubt I woulda liked him vs Braves till he got blown up once again. I don’t know much bout Logan evans but making your 1st start at zona can go bad, some guys don’t like pitching there some are fine but until they do it ya really don’t know. I have a hard time justifying snakes laying the juice with the way their starter has looked, w Seattle having the pen I trust more, and maybe the better starter I just don’t know. Over or dog only options.
 
I hate favs but fading Alcatera seems like a good idea, not to mention the glack at pen getting overworked by these guys not lasting. They have pushed this Alcantera start back several days so im curious if that changes anything? His numbers and innings were better last game but it was against the Rockies and they missed a lot of sinkers right down the pipe and a few hanging off speed pitches they pulled foul. Seems crazy to not like favs and the fav I want to play is the pirates! Fish are struggling tho, these mfers got swept by rox!
 
Looks like tigers doing the opener thing, should be a good strategy vs o’s who struggle vs lhp. I’m assuming montero will follow Hunter after an inning or 2 but not sure I like that. Makes it a tough game to bet but tigers as dogs is incredibly tempting even tho o’s seem to be playing a little better they did just lose 2 of 3 to the A’s who had been the coldest team west of the Rockies! Have to look closer but this is obviously tigers or nothing.
 
I’d like to make a case for A’s but they can’t seem to gain any traction. Laa has kicked the shit out of them, 4 game sweep last month now they on 5 in a row va A’s this year and they have taken series of Boston and Seattle recently. Eventually A’s playing these kinda teams at this price will pay but I’m just not sure if it now?
 
I’d like to back gore at this price but nats really havnt been scoring runs for shit lately. I dunno if the 1st 5 under would make more sense?
 
Very limited at bats but both Mikolas and Bassitt been knocked around by these lineups. Def don’t mind over cause the weather heating up today so the ball should carry. That said if both pitchers have the potential to get hit and this high scoring I still rather have jays plus money, I don’t know jays pen all that well but I think it prob better than cards pen.
 
Interesting enough both Giolito and piepot have good numbers vs these lineups but the exit velo’s are pretty high so is there a chance they both get hit hard and this time the ball isn’t right at ppl? Could be yet another Red Sox over? Rays -101 now, I really don’t want to pay any cent of juice on this series, I’d been content to keep takin the small plus on rays. I know it not much a difference but look at last game , either team could have pulled that out so of course if I can get plus money I’ll take it. No plus no play, lol.
 
The curious case of Tyler mayle continues tonight. I havnt really looked deep into what he doing this year that has him the best he ever been, is it pitch mix or as some would suggest luck? This a pretty easy cap, if you buy into mahle the under makes a lot of sense cause odds of rangers scoring more than 4-5 runs feels incredibly low even against a kid that been in minors, plenty of big league starts he should be fine vs Texas. Twins have very limited AB’s vs mahle, crazy enough Harrison Bader has teed off on him a few times back from their reds v cards games im sure. Anyways under 9 worth a look I think but I don’t feel real strongly bout this game.
 
I really want to add the under 8.5 in kc to that but yanks have the best ops in the league vs lhp and again I’m not sure how good this Cameron kid is? The fact he hasn’t given up more than a run in any these starts is crazy, especially since he pitching into the 7th all but one. That said it only been 5 starts and none of them been against a top 10 offense vs lhp. This will Def be his toughest test but even if he not as good but still goes 6 and let’s say gives up 3 even 4 I still think it would stay under. Cant expect kc to get much off Fried. Dont think kc pen will give up anything if Cameron gives them 6 innings. 3-4 runs can win this game I think.
 
@B.A.R. Do you know tigers plan after Hurter? Seems like it mostly been montero but he pitched 5 innings just a few days ago so that doesn’t seem likely which a good thing cause while this strategy has been good for some these struggling starters and it at least has got him deeper into games but he has still been getting knocked around by 2nd time thru lineup. Be interesting to see what o’s lineup looks like, they have bunch of guys who haven’t been hitting lhp but they have to play several of them, Not sure if tigers have a long relief type lefty? Or if they plan on using a bunch of guys and switch out every inning or 2?
 
I really like tigers today. Assuming not much change in their lineup from yesterday (rotogrinders agrees) thwy are really good against LHP almost from top to bottom.

I too dont mind their openimg pitcher strategy. Its a good ploy yo limit some of these guys so they dont have to see a guy third time through ( one of my favorite fangraph stats).

I was on balt a couple times over the last few weeks and, while they have a talented lineup (same for blue jays) they are just not producing runs.

Last time i looked at lines det was about a +115 dog. Ill take my chances with them against povich.

Alcantera used to be an auto under bet, similar to pitt games. For whatever reason he is not responding well off of TJ surgery. He should ask perez what he is doing and copy it.

Anyway, he dis have a decent outing last time around and although pitt is on a win streak ( that was strange to type) they still are a weak hitting lineup.

I did a parlay on alcantera of over 4.5 ks and over 1.5 walks. Pays +230.

I feel pretty comfortable with the strikeouts. Pitt should be swinging. My biggest concern is they are not patient enough to get the 2 walks needed to cash. But, im being fairly compensated for those risks based on the matchups i feel.
 
I really like tigers today. Assuming not much change in their lineup from yesterday (rotogrinders agrees) thwy are really good against LHP almost from top to bottom.

I too dont mind their openimg pitcher strategy. Its a good ploy yo limit some of these guys so they dont have to see a guy third time through ( one of my favorite fangraph stats).

I was on balt a couple times over the last few weeks and, while they have a talented lineup (same for blue jays) they are just not producing runs.

Last time i looked at lines det was about a +115 dog. Ill take my chances with them against povich.

Alcantera used to be an auto under bet, similar to pitt games. For whatever reason he is not responding well off of TJ surgery. He should ask perez what he is doing and copy it.

Anyway, he dis have a decent outing last time around and although pitt is on a win streak ( that was strange to type) they still are a weak hitting lineup.

I did a parlay on alcantera of over 4.5 ks and over 1.5 walks. Pays +230.

I feel pretty comfortable with the strikeouts. Pitt should be swinging. My biggest concern is they are not patient enough to get the 2 walks needed to cash. But, im being fairly compensated for those risks based on the matchups i feel.

Despite the velo/‘stuff Alcatera was never a heavy k pitcher but you also didn’t see any 4.5’s either. Before he got hurt i dunno how many times after fish got him to sign a pretty team friendly deal I asked “why they running this guy into the ground?” Often sending him out for the 7-8-9th when he was already over 100 pitches. Almost gotta wonder if maybe he has some wear and tear in shoulder or other spots than just the TJ cause he has had ample time where he should be looking like himself. The fact they pushed him back a few days I’m not sure if they just think there some fatigue or what? The control hasn’t been good, he either missing the plate or catching too much of it. I really feel like I have to either fade him or sit back and wait, as I mentioned I don’t think the Rockies start was a huge leap forward as much as a terrible offense that missed quite a few mistakes. Obviously the pirates offense not exactly scary but think it has several guys more talented than Rox lineup, It just tough to say wtf going on without inside knowledge.

Im almost for sure gonna be on tigers as well.outside starting montero i can’t think of any other way I wouldn’t wanna bet them as dogs to o’s. I never loved openers just cause it really hard to cap if you don’t know which pitchers coming in and when. That said the openers that teams been doing in place of a struggling starter then going to the starter after a lefty gets out tough lefties on top teams lineups I really like. Actually brings some much needed strategy into the game. I’m glad this won’t be montero cause I just don’t trust him but I’d like to know the plan. Regardless i trust what tigers doing and to get plus money w them tough to pass.
 
Think I gotta play some these unders

Nats/mets Ff u4
Cws/hou u 7.5

Yanks/kc u8.5

this will be interesting and if yanks knock Cameron around it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing but I’m gonna trust he is solid, I think his streak of not allowing more than a run will be over tonight but I don’t think it be awful, think he can go 5+, maybe 6, give up 3 runs and leave the game with his team still having a chance. I don’t think fried will give up much of anything. Last 2 years he has totally shut the royals down in a game both seasons. I think royals lineup is slightly improved from those games but not so much so they gonna be able to do much vs this guy who pitching incredibly well. 3-1 when starters leave after 6/7 innings, maybe the pens allow a run or 2, 4-2 or so doesn’t seem crazy to me.
 
jays +103
Seattle +114

Not sure if I’m done, still considering tigers, trying to decide if I can really lay -140s with pirates, lol. And that really bout it. Maybe some props but I gotta mow my lawn.
 
What do we think of Phillies rookie Abel? He been good in his 2 starts but it is kinda odd all thru the minors including this year he has had a bit a walk problem but in his 2 big league starts no walks. There been a drastic change in his big league starts he has thrown 70% 1st pitch strikes, that a great way not to walk ppl, the concern would be it won’t take long for a team like the cubs to identify that and jumping on him early in counts. His stuff seems more than good enough tho, ov 4.5 k’s is super tempting.
 
Abbott has only given up more than 1 run in 2 starts this year! But he has only went 6+ in 4 of 10 starts, you would like to think he could go 6 vs a not great cle lineup but his efficiency can be a problem, earlier in the year cle couldn’t hit him but ran his pitch count up to 96 after just 5 innings. For some reason a lot these young pitchers on reds struggle w efficiency, is it a coaching thing, just the inability to pump strikes, or are they scared to pitch to contact and waste pitches going for k’s? He is def capable of going 6 here but not sure I trust him to do so. Maybe under 2.5 earned runs makes more sense or the gaurdians Ff Tt under?
 
Kinda surprised they set Cameron outs at 15.5, even tho this be his toughest matchup and expect him to give up more than a run, I also think he will be good enough and pitch into the 6th,
 
@B.A.R. Do you know tigers plan after Hurter? Seems like it mostly been montero but he pitched 5 innings just a few days ago so that doesn’t seem likely which a good thing cause while this strategy has been good for some these struggling starters and it at least has got him deeper into games but he has still been getting knocked around by 2nd time thru lineup. Be interesting to see what o’s lineup looks like, they have bunch of guys who haven’t been hitting lhp but they have to play several of them, Not sure if tigers have a long relief type lefty? Or if they plan on using a bunch of guys and switch out every inning or 2?
I'll check.

Been out of pocket all day.

Back in a bit, hopefully.
 
McCullers ov 16.5 outs… gotta play this. Matter a fact I’m ok instead of paying juice on this moving him up to 17.5 for plus money. Think it been clear for a few starts he rounding back into form. Just don’t think he will struggle much vs cws, he should cruise thru 6.
 
Cws were on my list of potential plays. Lance cashed me a nice dog ticket 2 starts ago i think. Smith just does not match up well with houstons expected lineup. Houston hits better at home and the white sox are still run challenged.

If i had to take some favorites today...pitt and hou would be them. Tor, tb, and milw also have my interest...but the lines are far short where i need them to be.
 
Did a 4 man ov.5 hit round robin in groups of 2.

Pena (hou)
Freeman (col)
Duran (bos)
Wilson (oak)

That and the alcantera plays will be it from me...as wrll as the regular dog plays. There is prob more out there, but this is enough for me today.
 
Cws were on my list of potential plays. Lance cashed me a nice dog ticket 2 starts ago i think. Smith just does not match up well with houstons expected lineup. Houston hits better at home and the white sox are still run challenged.

If i had to take some favorites today...pitt and hou would be them. Tor, tb, and milw also have my interest...but the lines are far short where i need them to be.

Yea for the time being I’m only looking at cws at home where they been surprisingly decent. I don’t trust them away yet plus I think McCullers has really started to round into form, I expect he cashes his out prop fairly easily and pitches at least 6 innings (maybe more) and hold them to 1-2 runs at most.

I liked Tampa also but once I saw -101 I lost interest, Giolito over 2.5 earned runs allowed if I played anything.

Jay’s plus anything I thought was a good deal, these teams close, Bassitt and Mikolas are somewhat similar imo, but I think jays hotter right now and like I said I’m still not sold cards are anything but a .500 team when it all said and done.

I like pirates but if very tough for someone who rarely plays fav ml’s in mlb to go and lay -145 with pirates of all teams! I do think they the right side tho, fade alcontera until he proves otherwise imo.
 
Did a 4 man ov.5 hit round robin in groups of 2.

Pena (hou)
Freeman (col)
Duran (bos)
Wilson (oak)

That and the alcantera plays will be it from me...as wrll as the regular dog plays. There is prob more out there, but this is enough for me today.

I seem to run into that problem a lot if I’m playing sides, totals, and props next thing ya know I have 10-15 plays which way more than I’d prefer.. I did a 4 man RR w these hitters

Jose Ramirez ov 1.5 tb (been playing him a bunch while he on this 35 gm on base streak)

James wood ov .5 tb

Heliot Ramos ov 2.5 h/r/rbi

Raleigh ov 1.5 h/r/rbi


Really wanted to play Chapman but he out of lineup. Just saw Ramos hitting 3rd I was kinda hoping he be leading off cause not a ton behind him to drive him in. Hopefully he handles things himself.
 
The pitchers again I just mixed and matched into handful of 2-3 team parlays.,

McCullers ov 16.5 outs (if you playing straight I’m totally good with bumping him to 17.5 to kill the juice and get a little plus money, I am )

Cameron ov 15.5 outs

Abel ov 4.5 k’s

Gore ov 6.5 k’s

Fried u2.5 earned runs
Abbott u2.5 earned runs
Giolito ov 2.5 earned runs

McCullers outs is easily my favorite of the night, pretty confident he goes 6+ innings.

You just can’t argue w the stats on gore, he fans 7+ damn near every start so If I can get a 6.5 without a bunch of juice I don’t even care bout matchup cause he can punch out anyone.

Fried has given up more than 2 runs 1x all year. Another one that you can almost play blind and even better I think he has proven to be a tough matchup for kc hitters.

Abbott himself doesn’t give up runs real often, normally it would piss me off how early they pull him or how inefficient he can be but in this case Ill be happy the earlier he comes out the game long as ppl not on the bases when he leaves!

Even in Giolito prime he was good for one inning of straight up suck, he might pitch well for most the night be there be that one inning rays hang 2-3 runs at least.
 
As i focus alot on pitching matchups i should dive into more of those out an k props. Bit i need to leave some things alone. I dabble in hitter props and totals. I just try and keep it simple with sides overall.

Thanks @B.A.R. for posting those tigers notes. Helpful and in line with what i had seen.
 
As i focus alot on pitching matchups i should dive into more of those out an k props. Bit i need to leave some things alone. I dabble in hitter props and totals. I just try and keep it simple with sides overall.

Thanks @B.A.R. for posting those tigers notes. Helpful and in line with what i had seen.
No problem.

I'll try and be quicker on Tigers notes daily.
 
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