JULY MLB



JULY: [194-155 +112.18u]
LAST: [6-5-1 -5.86u]

7/26 SAT
  • 5/3.85 ARI -130
  • 5/5.00 PIT u8½ +100
  • 5/3.42 MIA +1½ -146
  • 5/4.37 MIL u8½ -114
  • 6/4.17 STL -144
  • 7/7.00 STL u9 +100
  • 6/2.73 NYM +1½ -220
  • 7/3.78 DET -185
  • 5/5.00 DET u7 +100
  • 7/3.59 HOU -195
  • 6/4.65 G2-KAN -129
  • 4/5.32 LAA +133
  • 4/3.20 LAA +1½ -125
  • 4/3.70 PHI -108
  • 4/5.60 PHI -1½ +140
  • 5/4.17 BAL -1½ -120
  • 5/4.76 BAL u9½ -105
  • 5/4.35 MIN u9½ -115
  • 4/6.68 CHW +167
  • 4/4.00 CHW +1½ +100
  • 5/4.35 CHC o9 -115
  • 6/4.20 BOS -143
  • 5/4.76 BOS u8½ -105
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randoms...

  • STREAKS: NYM 5, TEX 4, SD -4, DET -5
  • DOGS ON ML 55-38 56.8% +28.7% ROI L10 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 63-25 71.6% +18.3% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • SKUBAL(DET) 14-4 +18.4% @HOME w/ 2.885
    • ROCKER(TEX) 5-1 +51.4% @HOME w/ 4.061
    • KIRBY(SEA) 9-4 +22.7% AWAY w/ 3.856
    • SENZATELA(COL) 2-8 -49.2% AWAY w/ 5.030
    • REPIOT(TAM) 4-10 -38.7% AWAY w/ 4.157
    • PETERSON(NYM) 5-11 -42.9% AWAY w/ 3.867
    • CROCHET(BOS) 4-10 -55.9% @HOME w/ 2.070
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • LOPEZ(SAC) 6-2 +71.5% w/4.02 / 1.28 / 4.177
    • CROCHET(BOS) 7-1 +47.2% w/2.16 / 1.03 / 2.070
    • VASQUEZ(SD) 5-2 +47.8% w/3.80 / 1.39 / 5.357
    • KIRBY(SEA) 6-2 +37.7% w/4.50 / 1.15 / 3.856
    • QUINTANA(MIL) 5-2 +42.6% w/3.28 / 1.36 / 4.312
    • BROWN(HOU) 6-2 +32.6% w/2.43 / 0.96 / 3.207
    • ABBOTT(CIN) 5-2 +37.1% w/2.07 / 1.08 / 4.956
    • SKUBAL(DET) 6-1 +20.3% w/2.23 / 0.83 / 2.885
    • HEANEY(PIT) 2-5 -41.2% w/4.41 / 1.24 / 4.311
    • HORTON(CHC) 2-5 -52.2% w/4.27 / 1.44 / 4.486
    • HOLMES(ATL) 2-6 -54.6% w/3.81 / 1.32 / 3.608
    • CIVALE(CHW) 1-7 -72.8% w/5.30 / 1.48 / 4.464
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 38-13 +6.3% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 29-22 +3.9% ROI
    • COL AWAY UNDERS 30-19-2 FOR 16.9% ROI
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CHISOX HAVING THEIR TURN AS TOP BET IN THE BIGS OVER LAST 15 DAYS(WELL ACTUALLY 11 DAYS SANS THE 4 DAY BREAK)
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Off night for the model. Note: I have no listed starters for SF, MIN & CHC although lines were posted. Without listed starter, I use league starter avg -20% for pitcher rating. Therefore, the WAS & CHW leans could go away or become stronger depending on who starts.
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Fish back on top of the hot list

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On the year, MIA far and away the best team to bet on when on the road, even though they have only the 6th best road record.
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Even with the 10th worst record overall, they are still the 3rd best money team all games this year behind Jays and Brewcrew

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JULY: [203-168 +85.76u]
LAST: [9-13-1 -26.42u]

7/27 SUN
  • 6/3.80 ARI +1½ -158
  • 10/10 PIT u7½ +100
  • 4/6.32 MIA +158
  • 3/2.14 MIA +1½ -140
  • 3/3.00 STL u9 +100
  • 3/2.14 NYM -140
  • 6/6.00 SF u8 +100
  • 2.24/2 DET -112
  • 3/2.86 TOR o8½ -105
  • 3/2.86 HOU u8 -105
  • 6/4.76 KAN -126
  • 3/4.38 LAA +149
  • 3/3.12 LAA u8½ +104
  • 4/2.05 BAL -195
  • 3/2.86 BAL -1½ -105
  • 3/2.61 BAL u10 -115
  • 6/5.71 LAD o10½ -105
  • 2.02/2 CIN -101
  • 3/5.01 WAS +167
  • 6/5.00 WAS +1½ -120
  • 5/8.70 CHW +174
  • 10/8.7 CHW u9 -115
  • 3/2.58 TEX -116
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randoms...

  • STREAKS: NYM 6, TEX 5, (TOR, MIA) 4, ATL -4, DET -6
  • DOGS ON ML 62-51 54.9% +26.3% ROI L10 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 59-27 68.6% +14.9% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • PEREZ(MIA) 4-1 +83.2% AWAY w/ na
    • BUEHLER(BOS) 9-4 +24.8% @HOME w/ 4.667
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • GILBERT(SEA) 5-2 +28.5% w/3.39 / 1.05 / 2.384
    • WHEELER(PHI) 6-2 +14% w/2.36 / 0.86 / 3.023
    • LEITER(TEX) 2-5 -44.4% w/4.37 / 1.36 / 4.704
    • GOMBER(COL) 1-6 -48.6% w/5.65 / 1.60 / 4.507
    • FLAHERTY(DET) 2-6 -54.7% w/4.65 / 1.24 / 3.769
    • RODON(NYY) 2-6 -63.5% w/3.00 / 1.00 / 3.660
    • KOLEK(SD) 0-6 -100% w/4.24 / 1.29 / 4.275
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 39-13 +6.9% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 30-22 +5.3% ROI
    • COL AWAY UNDERS 30-20-2 FOR 14.5% ROI

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JULY: [218-173 +115.27u]
LAST: [15-5-3 +29.51u]

7/28 MON
  • 3/3.15 LAD -1½ +105
  • 3/3.18 MIA +106
  • 4/2.05 MIA +1½ -195
  • 3/2.61 STL u8½ -115
  • 6/4.89 SD -123
  • 3/2.78 NYM o8 -108
  • 6/7.44 PIT +124
  • 3/2.61 SF u8 -115
  • 6/6.78 BAL +113
  • 10/10.5 TAM +105
  • 8/4.00 TAM +1½ -200
  • 6/7.02 ARI +117
  • 7/3.91 ARI +1½ -179
  • 9/4.00 CLE -225
  • 6/5.22 CLE -1½ -115
  • 6/5.22 CLE u9 -115
  • 3/2.86 CHW u8½ -105
  • 6/3.92 ATL -153
  • 3/2.73 KAN u9½ -110
  • 7/3.21 HOU -221
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randoms...

  • STREAKS: NYM 7, TEX 6, (SAC, CIN) 4, (HOU, TAM) -4, ATL -5
  • DOGS ON ML 67-58 53.6% +23.2% ROI L10 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 57-27 67.9% +12% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 14-3 +34.4% @HOME w/ 3.035
    • MONTAS(NYM) 6-2 +41.6% AWAY w/ 3.805
    • BLALOCK(COL) 1-5 -41.7% AWAY w/ 5.352
    • STRIDER(ATL) 1-5 -71.1% AWAY w/ 3.518
    • MARTIN(CHW) 3-9 -45.5% @HOME w/ 4.360
    • KELLER(PIT) 4-10 -41% AWAY w/ 4.044
    • FITTS(BOS) 0-7 -100% AWAY w/ 4.022
    • BASSITT(TOR) 3-10 -59.3% AWAY w/ 3.587
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 7-0 +77.7% w/2.75 / 1.12 / 3.035
    • CASTILLO(SEA) 6-2 +53% w/3.54 / 1.32 / 4.054
    • BASSITT(TOR) 6-2 +42.8% w/3.93 / 1.37 / 3.587
    • BOYD(CHC) 6-2 +21.8% w/2.34 / 1.03 / 3.770
    • BURNS(CIN) 1-4 -51.6% w/6.19 / 1.62 / 2.892
    • EFLIN(BAL) 1-4 -65.5% w/5.78 / 1.37 / 4.201
    • RODRIGUEZ(ARI) 2-5 -48.6% w/5.94 / 1.67 / 4.077
    • PALLANTE(STL) 2-6 -51.6% w/4.91 / 1.37 / 3.790
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 40-13 +7.5% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 31-22 +6.6% ROI
    • COL AWAY UNDERS 31-20-2 FOR 16% ROI
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JULY: [228-183 +110.20u]1753788010378.webp
LAST: [10-10 -5.07u]

7/29 TUE
  • 6/8.10 CIN +135
  • 6/5.31 MIL -113
  • 4/3.48 STL u8 -115
  • 4/4.20 SD +105
  • 7/4.02 NYY -174
  • 4/3.53 LAA -113
  • 3/5.31 LAA -1½ +177
  • 6/6.00 SAC +100
  • 8/3.67 CLE -218
  • 4/4.00 DET u8½ +100
  • 6/4.95 KAN -121
  • 9/11.25 WAS +125
  • 3/1.84 WAS +1½ -163
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randoms...

  • STREAKS: SF -4, HOU -5
  • DOGS ON ML 69-58 54.3% +25.7% ROI L10 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 57-26 68.7% +14.1% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • GRAY(STL) 16-2 +49.8% @HOME w/ 2.888
    • REA(CHC) 8-2 +65.1% AWAY w/ 4.481
    • PRIESTER(MIL) 5-1 +51.5% @HOME w/ 3.630
    • FALTER(PIT) 4-10 -19% AWAY w/ 4.804
    • SOROKA(WAS) 2-6 -35.5% AWAY w/ 4.063
    • GORDEN(COL) 0-5 -100% AWAY w/ 4.424
    • ALLEN(CLE) 3-9 -55.3% @HOME w/ 4.580
    • SEVERINO(SAC) 5-13 -53.3% @HOME w/ 4.552
    • FEDDE(ATL) 4-14 -57.5% AWAY w/ 5.272
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • CANNON(CHW) 5-0 +137.6% w/4.94 / 1.50 / 4.653
    • PRIESTER(MIL) 7-0 +96.7% w/2.64 / 1.23 / 3.630
    • LAUER(TOR) 7-1 +72% w/3.22 / 1.03 / 3.841
    • MORTON(BAL) 5-2 +49.6% w/5.81 / 1.60 / 4.272
    • LODOLO(CIN) 6-2 +41.6% w/3.08 / 1.04 / 3.793
    • REA(CHC) 6-2 +35% w/4.53 / 1.29 / 4.481
    • VERLANDER(SF) 1-6 -66.6% w/4.74 / 1.49 / 4.881
    • FEDDE(ATL) 1-6 -75.1% w/5.22 / 1.51 / 5.272
    • SOROKA(WAS) 0-8 -100% w/4.91 / 1.37 / 3.790
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 40-14 +5.4% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 31-23 +4.5% ROI
    • COL AWAY UNDERS 31-21-2 FOR 14% ROI
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7/30 WED
  • 6/5.11 MIL -117
  • 7/3.55 SF -197
  • 6/9.84 CIN +164
  • 4/3.85 BAL -104
  • 4/3.81 TOR o10 -105
  • 4/4.88 ARI +122
  • 4/5.20 CHW +130
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randoms...

  • STREAKS: BAL 5, (SD, PIT) 4, (TOR, ARI) -4, SF -5
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • HOUSER(CHW) 5-0 +137.2% @HOME w/ 4.134
    • SPRINGS(SAC) 8-4 +29.2% @HOME w/ 4.602
    • IMANAGA(CHC) 8-4 +21.6% AWAY w/ 4.871
    • FREELAND(COL) 5-10 -8.1% AWAY w/ 4.088
    • PADDACK(DET) 2-7 -57.6% @HOME w/ 4.563
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • HOUSER(CHW) 6-1 +97.9% w/2.10 / 1.22 / 4.134
    • QUANTRILL(MIA) 6-2 +83.8% w/5.05 / 1.33 / 4.278
    • NELSON(ARI) 7-1 +74.8% w/2.80 / 1.01 / 4.183
    • SPRINGS(SAC) 6-2 +61.6% w/4.11 / 1.23 / 4.602
    • PERALTA(MIL) 7-1 +60% w/2.81 / 1.09 / 3.942
    • BERRIOS(TOR) 6-2 +39.1% w/3.83 / 1.25 / 4.292
    • GORE(WAS) 2-5 -41.3% w/3.52 / 1.28 / 3.421
    • PADDACK(DET) 2-6 -52.8% w/4.95 / 1.28 / 4.563
    • BURROWS(PIT) 1-6 -68% w/4.35 / 1.37 / 3.980
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It's been a roller coaster of a year, hopefully I can follow the trend line 📈
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