JULY MLB

[mrpickem]

https://imgur.com/a/Ov5486k

JULY: [194-155 +112.18u]
LAST: [6-5-1 -5.86u]

7/26 SAT

• 5/3.85 ARI -130
• 5/5.00 PIT u8½ +100
• 5/3.42 MIA +1½ -146
• 5/4.37 MIL u8½ -114
• 6/4.17 STL -144
• 7/7.00 STL u9 +100
• 6/2.73 NYM +1½ -220
• 7/3.78 DET -185
• 5/5.00 DET u7 +100
• 7/3.59 HOU -195
• 6/4.65 G2-KAN -129
• 4/5.32 LAA +133
• 4/3.20 LAA +1½ -125
• 4/3.70 PHI -108
• 4/5.60 PHI -1½ +140
• 5/4.17 BAL -1½ -120
• 5/4.76 BAL u9½ -105
• 5/4.35 MIN u9½ -115
• 4/6.68 CHW +167
• 4/4.00 CHW +1½ +100
• 5/4.35 CHC o9 -115
• 6/4.20 BOS -143
• 5/4.76 BOS u8½ -105

randoms...

• STREAKS: NYM 5, TEX 4, SD -4, DET -5
• DOGS ON ML 55-38 56.8% +28.7% ROI L10 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 63-25 71.6% +18.3% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • SKUBAL(DET) 14-4 +18.4% @HOME w/ 2.885
  • ROCKER(TEX) 5-1 +51.4% @HOME w/ 4.061
  • KIRBY(SEA) 9-4 +22.7% AWAY w/ 3.856
  • SENZATELA(COL) 2-8 -49.2% AWAY w/ 5.030
  • REPIOT(TAM) 4-10 -38.7% AWAY w/ 4.157
  • PETERSON(NYM) 5-11 -42.9% AWAY w/ 3.867
  • CROCHET(BOS) 4-10 -55.9% @HOME w/ 2.070
• HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • LOPEZ(SAC) 6-2 +71.5% w/4.02 / 1.28 / 4.177
  • CROCHET(BOS) 7-1 +47.2% w/2.16 / 1.03 / 2.070
  • VASQUEZ(SD) 5-2 +47.8% w/3.80 / 1.39 / 5.357
  • KIRBY(SEA) 6-2 +37.7% w/4.50 / 1.15 / 3.856
  • QUINTANA(MIL) 5-2 +42.6% w/3.28 / 1.36 / 4.312
  • BROWN(HOU) 6-2 +32.6% w/2.43 / 0.96 / 3.207
  • ABBOTT(CIN) 5-2 +37.1% w/2.07 / 1.08 / 4.956
  • SKUBAL(DET) 6-1 +20.3% w/2.23 / 0.83 / 2.885
  • HEANEY(PIT) 2-5 -41.2% w/4.41 / 1.24 / 4.311
  • HORTON(CHC) 2-5 -52.2% w/4.27 / 1.44 / 4.486
  • HOLMES(ATL) 2-6 -54.6% w/3.81 / 1.32 / 3.608
  • CIVALE(CHW) 1-7 -72.8% w/5.30 / 1.48 / 4.464
• FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 38-13 +6.3% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 29-22 +3.9% ROI
  • COL AWAY UNDERS 30-19-2 FOR 16.9% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

CHISOX HAVING THEIR TURN AS TOP BET IN THE BIGS OVER LAST 15 DAYS(WELL ACTUALLY 11 DAYS SANS THE 4 DAY BREAK)

 

[mrpickem]

Off night for the model. Note: I have no listed starters for SF, MIN & CHC although lines were posted. Without listed starter, I use league starter avg -20% for pitcher rating. Therefore, the WAS & CHW leans could go away or become stronger depending on who starts.

Fish back on top of the hot list



On the year, MIA far and away the best team to bet on when on the road, even though they have only the 6th best road record.


Even with the 10th worst record overall, they are still the 3rd best money team all games this year behind Jays and Brewcrew

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [203-168 +85.76u]
LAST: [9-13-1 -26.42u]

7/27 SUN

• 6/3.80 ARI +1½ -158
• 10/10 PIT u7½ +100
• 4/6.32 MIA +158
• 3/2.14 MIA +1½ -140
• 3/3.00 STL u9 +100
• 3/2.14 NYM -140
• 6/6.00 SF u8 +100
• 2.24/2 DET -112
• 3/2.86 TOR o8½ -105
• 3/2.86 HOU u8 -105
• 6/4.76 KAN -126
• 3/4.38 LAA +149
• 3/3.12 LAA u8½ +104
• 4/2.05 BAL -195
• 3/2.86 BAL -1½ -105
• 3/2.61 BAL u10 -115
• 6/5.71 LAD o10½ -105
• 2.02/2 CIN -101
• 3/5.01 WAS +167
• 6/5.00 WAS +1½ -120
• 5/8.70 CHW +174
• 10/8.7 CHW u9 -115
• 3/2.58 TEX -116

randoms...

• STREAKS: NYM 6, TEX 5, (TOR, MIA) 4, ATL -4, DET -6
• DOGS ON ML 62-51 54.9% +26.3% ROI L10 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 59-27 68.6% +14.9% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • PEREZ(MIA) 4-1 +83.2% AWAY w/ na
  • BUEHLER(BOS) 9-4 +24.8% @HOME w/ 4.667
• HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • GILBERT(SEA) 5-2 +28.5% w/3.39 / 1.05 / 2.384
  • WHEELER(PHI) 6-2 +14% w/2.36 / 0.86 / 3.023
  • LEITER(TEX) 2-5 -44.4% w/4.37 / 1.36 / 4.704
  • GOMBER(COL) 1-6 -48.6% w/5.65 / 1.60 / 4.507
  • FLAHERTY(DET) 2-6 -54.7% w/4.65 / 1.24 / 3.769
  • RODON(NYY) 2-6 -63.5% w/3.00 / 1.00 / 3.660
  • KOLEK(SD) 0-6 -100% w/4.24 / 1.29 / 4.275
• FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 39-13 +6.9% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 30-22 +5.3% ROI
  • COL AWAY UNDERS 30-20-2 FOR 14.5% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [218-173 +115.27u]
LAST: [15-5-3 +29.51u]

7/28 MON

• 3/3.15 LAD -1½ +105
• 3/3.18 MIA +106
• 4/2.05 MIA +1½ -195
• 3/2.61 STL u8½ -115
• 6/4.89 SD -123
• 3/2.78 NYM o8 -108
• 6/7.44 PIT +124
• 3/2.61 SF u8 -115
• 6/6.78 BAL +113
• 10/10.5 TAM +105
• 8/4.00 TAM +1½ -200
• 6/7.02 ARI +117
• 7/3.91 ARI +1½ -179
• 9/4.00 CLE -225
• 6/5.22 CLE -1½ -115
• 6/5.22 CLE u9 -115
• 3/2.86 CHW u8½ -105
• 6/3.92 ATL -153
• 3/2.73 KAN u9½ -110
• 7/3.21 HOU -221

randoms...

• STREAKS: NYM 7, TEX 6, (SAC, CIN) 4, (HOU, TAM) -4, ATL -5
• DOGS ON ML 67-58 53.6% +23.2% ROI L10 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 57-27 67.9% +12% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • VALDEZ(HOU) 14-3 +34.4% @HOME w/ 3.035
  • MONTAS(NYM) 6-2 +41.6% AWAY w/ 3.805
  • BLALOCK(COL) 1-5 -41.7% AWAY w/ 5.352
  • STRIDER(ATL) 1-5 -71.1% AWAY w/ 3.518
  • MARTIN(CHW) 3-9 -45.5% @HOME w/ 4.360
  • KELLER(PIT) 4-10 -41% AWAY w/ 4.044
  • FITTS(BOS) 0-7 -100% AWAY w/ 4.022
  • BASSITT(TOR) 3-10 -59.3% AWAY w/ 3.587
• HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • VALDEZ(HOU) 7-0 +77.7% w/2.75 / 1.12 / 3.035
  • CASTILLO(SEA) 6-2 +53% w/3.54 / 1.32 / 4.054
  • BASSITT(TOR) 6-2 +42.8% w/3.93 / 1.37 / 3.587
  • BOYD(CHC) 6-2 +21.8% w/2.34 / 1.03 / 3.770
  • BURNS(CIN) 1-4 -51.6% w/6.19 / 1.62 / 2.892
  • EFLIN(BAL) 1-4 -65.5% w/5.78 / 1.37 / 4.201
  • RODRIGUEZ(ARI) 2-5 -48.6% w/5.94 / 1.67 / 4.077
  • PALLANTE(STL) 2-6 -51.6% w/4.91 / 1.37 / 3.790
• FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 40-13 +7.5% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 31-22 +6.6% ROI
  • COL AWAY UNDERS 31-20-2 FOR 16% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [228-183 +110.20u]
LAST: [10-10 -5.07u]

7/29 TUE

• 6/8.10 CIN +135
• 6/5.31 MIL -113
• 4/3.48 STL u8 -115
• 4/4.20 SD +105
• 7/4.02 NYY -174
• 4/3.53 LAA -113
• 3/5.31 LAA -1½ +177
• 6/6.00 SAC +100
• 8/3.67 CLE -218
• 4/4.00 DET u8½ +100
• 6/4.95 KAN -121
• 9/11.25 WAS +125
• 3/1.84 WAS +1½ -163

randoms...

• STREAKS: SF -4, HOU -5
• DOGS ON ML 69-58 54.3% +25.7% ROI L10 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 57-26 68.7% +14.1% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • GRAY(STL) 16-2 +49.8% @HOME w/ 2.888
  • REA(CHC) 8-2 +65.1% AWAY w/ 4.481
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 5-1 +51.5% @HOME w/ 3.630
  • FALTER(PIT) 4-10 -19% AWAY w/ 4.804
  • SOROKA(WAS) 2-6 -35.5% AWAY w/ 4.063
  • GORDEN(COL) 0-5 -100% AWAY w/ 4.424
  • ALLEN(CLE) 3-9 -55.3% @HOME w/ 4.580
  • SEVERINO(SAC) 5-13 -53.3% @HOME w/ 4.552
  • FEDDE(ATL) 4-14 -57.5% AWAY w/ 5.272
• HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • CANNON(CHW) 5-0 +137.6% w/4.94 / 1.50 / 4.653
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 7-0 +96.7% w/2.64 / 1.23 / 3.630
  • LAUER(TOR) 7-1 +72% w/3.22 / 1.03 / 3.841
  • MORTON(BAL) 5-2 +49.6% w/5.81 / 1.60 / 4.272
  • LODOLO(CIN) 6-2 +41.6% w/3.08 / 1.04 / 3.793
  • REA(CHC) 6-2 +35% w/4.53 / 1.29 / 4.481
  • VERLANDER(SF) 1-6 -66.6% w/4.74 / 1.49 / 4.881
  • FEDDE(ATL) 1-6 -75.1% w/5.22 / 1.51 / 5.272
  • SOROKA(WAS) 0-8 -100% w/4.91 / 1.37 / 3.790
• FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 40-14 +5.4% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 31-23 +4.5% ROI
  • COL AWAY UNDERS 31-21-2 FOR 14% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

7/30 WED

• 6/5.11 MIL -117
• 7/3.55 SF -197
• 6/9.84 CIN +164
• 4/3.85 BAL -104
• 4/3.81 TOR o10 -105
• 4/4.88 ARI +122
• 4/5.20 CHW +130

randoms...

• STREAKS: BAL 5, (SD, PIT) 4, (TOR, ARI) -4, SF -5
• BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • HOUSER(CHW) 5-0 +137.2% @HOME w/ 4.134
  • SPRINGS(SAC) 8-4 +29.2% @HOME w/ 4.602
  • IMANAGA(CHC) 8-4 +21.6% AWAY w/ 4.871
  • FREELAND(COL) 5-10 -8.1% AWAY w/ 4.088
  • PADDACK(DET) 2-7 -57.6% @HOME w/ 4.563
• HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • HOUSER(CHW) 6-1 +97.9% w/2.10 / 1.22 / 4.134
  • QUANTRILL(MIA) 6-2 +83.8% w/5.05 / 1.33 / 4.278
  • NELSON(ARI) 7-1 +74.8% w/2.80 / 1.01 / 4.183
  • SPRINGS(SAC) 6-2 +61.6% w/4.11 / 1.23 / 4.602
  • PERALTA(MIL) 7-1 +60% w/2.81 / 1.09 / 3.942
  • BERRIOS(TOR) 6-2 +39.1% w/3.83 / 1.25 / 4.292
  • GORE(WAS) 2-5 -41.3% w/3.52 / 1.28 / 3.421
  • PADDACK(DET) 2-6 -52.8% w/4.95 / 1.28 / 4.563
  • BURROWS(PIT) 1-6 -68% w/4.35 / 1.37 / 3.980

It's been a roller coaster of a year, hopefully I can follow the trend line