JULY MLB

[mrpickem]

Had a good month finally, even after giving back about 50u over last 3 days.

JUNE: [270-229 +103.33u]
LAST: [2-7 -29.79u]

7/1 TUE

• 5/4.35 PHI u8½ -115
• 7/4.35 PIT -161
• 6/5.22 SF o9 -115
• 4/2.72 NYY -147
• 4/4.40 NYY -1½ +110
• 4/5.76 SAC +144
• 4/2.76 SAC +1½ -145
• 8/4.17 TEX -192
• 5/4.17 KAN o8 -120
• 5/5.00 MIA u7½ +100
• 6/6.60 DET -1½ +110
• 5/4.35 WAS u9½ -115
• 6/6.00 CIN +100
• 6/8.76 LAA +146
• 4/2.86 LAA +1½ -140
• 5/8.00 CLE +160
• 4/2.76 CLE +1½ -145
• 4/2.40 HOU -167
• 6/5.45 HOU -1½ -110
• 5/4.41 HOU o11 -113

randoms...

• STREAKS: MIA 7, PIT 4, CLE 4
• ROAD TEAMS ML 97-92 51.3% +6.3% ROI L14 DAYS
• ROAD TEAMS RL 239-158 60.2% +6.1% ROI L30 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 13-3 +29.7% @HOME w/3.198
  • BOYD(CHC) 11-3 +33% @HOME w/3.887
  • HOLMES(NYM) 6-2 +13.5% @HOME w/3.073
  • FITTS(BOS) 0-4 -100% @HOME w/2.209
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  
  • BAZ(TAM) 8-1 +74.3% w/3.95 / 1.20 / 4.391
  • GORDON(HOU) 6-2 +54.2% w/3.98 / 1.30 / 3.462
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +21% w/2.68 / 1.11 / 3.196
  • DEGROM(TEX) 6-2 +19.3% w/1.55 / 0.76 / 3.282
  • DOLLANDER(COL) 1-5 -59% w/5.08 / 1.38 / 4.696
• Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 32-8 +19.5% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 28-12 +15.9% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

I PULLED MOST OF THE NUMBERS, BUT DIDN'T HAVE TIME TO GET MY PLAYS IN AS I HAVE AN EARLY APPT. SHOULD BE BACK SOON TO FINISH PLAYS. HAD A GOOD DAY YESTERDAY.

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [10-5 +22.45u]
LAST: [10-5-5 +22.45u]

7/2 WED

• 5/4.17 STL -120
• 8/6.96 PIT u8 -115
• 6/5.55 1-SD -108
• 5/4.76 NYY o9 -105
• 5/6.50 SF +130
• 5/4.76 ARI u8½ -105
• 4/7.52 SAC +188
• 5/4.55 TAM u9 -110
• 5/3.72 TEX -134
• 5/4.37 TEX u8½ -114
• 5/8.05 KAN +161
• 5/5.25 SEA u7 +105
• 5/4.30 MIN -116
• 4/5.80 MIN -1½ +145
• 8/8.40 MIA u8½ +105
• 7/9.59 1-WAS +137
• 5/5.00 1-WAS u9 +100
• 5/5.55 LAA +111
• 4/2.33 LAA +1½ -172
• 5/7.15 CLE +143
• 5/5.00 CHC u8 +100
• 7/2.97 HOU -236
• 5/3.03 HOU -1½ -165
• 3/7.95 CHW +265
• 4/5.60 CHW +1½ +140
• 7/7.00 2-WAS +100
• 5/5.00 2-WAS u8 +100

randoms...

• STREAKS: MIA 8, PIT 5, SF -4, CLE -5
• ROAD TEAMS ML 94-91 50.8% +5.0% ROI L14 DAYS
• ROAD TEAMS RL 235-158 59.8% +5.4% ROI L30 DAYS
• UNDERS 48-39-1 55.2% +5.6% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 13-3 +29.7% @HOME w/3.198
  • FITTS(BOS) 0-4 -100% @HOME w/2.209
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • GRAY(STL) 7-1 +53.1% w/3.21 / 1.10 / 2.810
  • BROWN(HOU) 6-2 +26.3% w/2.01 / 0.87 / 3.343
  • KERSHAW(LAD) 6-2 +23.2% w/3.03 / 1.19 / 4.330
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +21% w/2.68 / 1.11 / 3.196
  • WARREN(NYY) 7-2 +20.3% w/4.06 / 1.29 / 3.143
  • KELLER(PIT) 2-6 -49.2% w/3.61 / 1.10 / 4.103
  • BIBEE(CLE) 2-6 -52.7% w/3.99 / 1.15 / 4.155
  • CAMERON(KAN) 1-7 -74.8% w/3.18 / 1.02 / 4.390
• Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 33-8 +20.4% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 28-13 +13.9% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [23-19 +23.86u]
LAST: [13-14 +1.41u]

7/3 THU

• 6/6.78 TOR +113
• 6/4.96 SEA -121
• 6/3.35 HOU -179
• 5/4.17 HOU -1½ -120
• 5/4.35 HOU o11 -115
• 4/2.66 DET -150
• 4/4.20 DET -1½ +105
• 6/8.34 LAA +139
• 5/4.55 LAD o9 -110

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: PIT 5, TOR 4, SF -4, CLE -6
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • PETERSON(NYM) 13-2 +44.9% @HOME w/3.873
  • WOO(SEA) 10-3 +34.5% @HOME w/3.602
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • QUINTANA(MIL) 4-1 +53.2% w/4.15 / 1.65 / 4.353
  • Note: ALL AVG/xFIP #'s ARE LAST 365 DAYS

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [26-25 +13.33u]
LAST: [3-6 -10.53u]

7/4 FRI

• 5/4.29 PHI u8½ -117
• 4/5.48 STL +137
• 4/2.80 STL +1½ -143
• 5/4.35 STL o9½ -115
• 5/5.15 CLE +103
• 4/2.42 CLE +1½ -165
• 5/4.76 CLE u8 -105
• 5/7.55 BOS -1½ +155
• 5/4.41 BOS o8½ -113
• 5/4.35 NYY o9 -115
• 5/4.35 SD u9 -115
• 3/4.80 BAL +160
• 3/2.31 BAL +1½ -130
• 5/4.35 ATL u9 -115
• 4/3.35 CHW -120
• 4/5.20 CHW -1½ +130
• 5/7.95 HOU +159
• 4/3.20 HOU +1½ -125
• 4/6.00 SF -1½ +150
• 5/4.50 SF o10 -111

randoms...

• STREAKS: PIT 6, TOR 5, LAD 4, NYY -4, CLE -7
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • WOO(SEA) 10-4 +24.9% @HOME W/3.602
  • LUZARDO(PIT) 6-2 +33.7% @HOME w/3.249
  • ROCKER(TEX) 2-5 -40.8% AWAY w/3.768
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 1-5 -63.3% AWAY w/3.809
  • PADDACK(MIN) 1-6 -71.7% @HOME w/4.728
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +55.3% w/3.40 / 1.35 / 4.050
  • LAUER(TOR) 5-1 +65.2% w/3.76 / 1.37 / 4.148
  • ABBOTT(CIN) 6-2 +45.2% w/1.61 / 0.99 / 4.953
  • MORTON(BAL) 5-1 +53.3% w/2.90 / 1.32 / 3.994
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 4-1 +48.1% w/1.91 / 1.06 / 3.809
  • SEARS(SAC) 2-7 -40.3% w/7.56 / 1.63 / 4.457
  • PADDACK(MIN) 1-7 -75.7% w/5.40 / 1.29 / 4.728
  • Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 34-9 +18.2% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 29-14 +12.7% ROI
• BEST RESCORDS IN MLB
• 

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [40-31 +49.98u]
LAST: [14-6 +36.65u]

My MLB action by day of the week


7/5 SAT

• 5/7.70 LAA +154
• 5/4.55 LAA o9 -110
• 6/5.71 WAS -105
• 5/5.00 BOS o10 +100
• 4/5.28 NYM +132
• 7/8.82 HOU +126
• 5/2.96 HOU +1½ -169
• 4/4.08 CHW +102
• 4/2.30 CHW +1½ -174
• 5/8.25 PIT +165
• 5/3.70 PIT +1½ -135
• 5/4.76 SEA u7½ -105

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 6, CHC 4, STL -4, NYY -5, CLE -8
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  
  • NELSON(ARI) 6-2 +38.5% @HOME W/3.281
  • CANNON(CHW) 4-10 -12.6% AWAY w/4.963
  • MARQUIZ(COL) 1-5 -39.2% @HOME w/4.735
  • CORBIN(TEX) 4-10 -41.3% AWAY w/3.675
  • KREMER(BAL) 5-13 -40.7% AWAY w/4.467
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  
  • VALDEZ(HOU) 8-0 +69.7% w/1.87 / 1.11 / 2.601
  • LAUER(TOR) 5-1 +65.2% w/3.76 / 1.37 / 4.148
  • PATRICK(MIL) 2-6 -38.5% w/3.70 / 1.36 / 3.971
  • CORBIN(TEX) 2-6 -47.5% w/5.40 / 1.30 / 3.675
  • KOLEK(SD) 2-6 -49% w/4.36 / 1.29 / 4.171
  • BUEHLER(BOS) 2-6 -49.9% w/8.64 / 1.95 / 4.667
  • SEVERINO(SAC) 1-8 -73.8% w/5.51 / 1.44 / 3.959
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 35-9 +19.1% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 29-15 +11% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

Note...SEA added as lean Friday after starter announced for PIT

Top teams by model action and model action by day of the week.

 

[mrpickem]

Crazy that Marlins have been 1st or 2nd in 15-day hot list for over 2 weeks straight!

 

[John Doe]

Mrpickem, thanks for all you do to help us beat the books, thanks for posting the models plays but you I think you accidentally deleted your actual plays for today, I'm on the same page as your model with the Phillies -1½-110, I always feel better if we are on the same side, have a good day.

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [48-35 +65.88u]
LAST: [8-4 +15.90u]

7/6 SUN

• 7/3.08 PHI -227
• 5/5.50 PHI u8½ +110
• 7/7.42 MIA +104
• 6/6.00 MIA u8 +100
• 5/8.85 STL +177
• 5/4.35 STL +1½ -115
• 5/3.07 TOR -163
• 6/5.71 CLE u7½ -105
• 4/5.48 BAL +137
• 4/2.58 BAL +1½ -155
• 5/4.10 NYY -1½ -122
• 4/3.74 CHW -107
• 4/5.60 CHW -1½ +140
• 6/6.00 PIT +100
• 5/2.27 PIT +1½ -220
• 8/7.62 SEA u6½ -105
• 5/6.70 KAN +134
• 5/3.23 KAN +1½ -155
• 6/9.90 HOU +165
• 4/3.33 HOU +1½ -120
• 6/5.45 SF o10 -110

MODEL PLAYS UPDATED:



randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 7, NYM 4, NYY -6, CLE -9
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • BOYD(CHC) 12-3 +34.1% @HOME W/3.887
  • GAUSMAN(TOR) 11-4 +30.6% AWAY w/4.638
  • WHEELER(PHI) 13-3 +21% @HOME w/3.030
  • LEITER(TEX) 2-6 -53.8% AWAY w/4.747
  • FEDDE(STL) 4-13 -55% AWAY w/4.584
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • CABRERA(MIA) 6-2 +70.6% w/1.93 / 1.10 / 4.050
  • GAUSMAN(TOR) 6-2 +46.4% w/3.75 / 1.17 / 4.638
  • RASMUSSEN(TAM) 6-2 +32.5% w/2.61 / 0.99 / 3.550
  • SKUBAL(DET) 7-1 +22.8% w/1.64 / 0.75 / 2.615
  • SKENES(PIT) 6-3 +24.6% w/1.44 / 0.83 / 2.722
  • FEDDE(STL) 2-6 -44.9% w/6.03 / 1.59 / 4.584
  • DOLLANDER(COL) 1-6 -64.9% w/6.39 / 1.55 / 4.745
  • HOLMES(ATL) 2-6 -59% w/2.84 / 1.31 / 3.686
  • LEITER(TEX) 1-7 -74% w/4.25 / 1.37 / 4.747
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 36-9 +20.2% ROI
  • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 30-15 +12.2% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

Mrpickem, thanks for all you do to help us beat the books, thanks for posting the models plays but you I think you accidentally deleted your actual plays for today, I'm on the same page as your model with the Phillies -1½-110, I always feel better if we are on the same side, have a good day.

My model only picks sides, no RL or totals. They are there, under the model record...but I updated them in the last post after updating lines, a couple minor changes. The model is based on value and can change when line changes and/or starter, Best of luck, let's get 'em!

Model plays:

 

[mrpickem]

It's been a stellar 30-day run. Best in recent memory, for sure. Here's to keeping it going...

JULY: [61-43 +85.74u]
LAST: [13-8 +19.86u]

7/7 MON

• 5/3.13 MIA +1½ -160
• 5/5.00 CIN u9 +100
• 5/4.76 LAD o7½ -105
• 4/4.76 ARI +119
• 5/2.91 ARI +1½ -172
• 5/4.35 SD u8½ -115
• 4/2.30 TOR -174
• 3/2.86 TOR -1½ -105
• 5/4.72 CHW u8½ -106
• 5/3.33 CLE +1½ -150
• 6/5.22 HOU u7½ -115
• 5/6.25 TEX -1½ +125
• 5/4.76 LAA u7½ -105
• 4/4.20 BOS u9½ +105
• 4/5.28 PIT +132
• 4/2.58 PIT +1½ -155
• 5/5.00 KAN u8½ +100

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 8, ATL -4, CLE -10
• ROAD DOGS ML 35-41 46.1% +7.8% ROI L10 DAYS
• ROAD DOGS RL 151-82 64.8% +9.6% ROI L30 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • BAZ(TAM) 10-4 +46.5% AWAY W/4.391
  • GORDON(HOU) 4-1 +66.3% @HOME w/3.658
  • CAMERON(KAN) 1-4 -59.6% @HOME w/4.399
  • HEANEY(PIT) 3-13 -65.4% AWAY w/4.264
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • BAZ(TAM) 7-1 +69.2% w/3.33 / 1.09 / 4.391
  • GORDON(HOU) 6-2 +52.9% w/4.17 / 1.34 / 3.658
  • BERRIOS(TOR) 6-2 +40.5% w/2.98 / 1.01 / 3.820
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 7-2 +26.1% w/2.51 / 1.06 / 3.351
  • DEGROM(TEX) 6-2 +15.3% w/1.97 / 0.80 / 3.262
  • BIBEE(CLE) 2-6 -52.7% w/4.34 / 1.18 / 4.115
  • CAMERON(KAN) 1-7 -74.8% w/3.09 / 1.12 / 4.399
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 33-11 +6.8% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 25-19 +4.3% ROI
  • COL UNDERS AWAY 27-15-2 64.3% +22.3% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

Model had a very good day Sunday and has been solid of late...even the leans have been pretty good over last 30 days. No plays today and only 2 leans without starters not announced. I use a rating slightly below league average for unannounced starters. I'm going to try to get back and rerun the numbers later this morning after we get starter info for Tigs & Gints.

Even after a loss, the Fish remain atop the 15-day-hot-list for an amazing 16 of last 17 days! HOU is hot on their trail after going into LA and sweeping the Doyers(PURE GOLD FOR ME GOING 6-0 ML/RL for +36.17u)

Even though SDQL sometimes lists starters here, they are more speculation than solid listing...so I don't include in final selections unless they are actually listed at MLB.com or my book.

 

[STEED]

 

[mrpickem]

Still not seeing a definite starter in DET although seen Flaherty probable in a couple places. With updated odds a Roupp in SF, model now has 3 leans: CIN, PHI, DET with DET becoming a legit play if Flaherty starts at current odds. Not that he's great, but he does rate out a couple notches above average. I'm gonna just ride with what I already got, and I doubt I'll look again.

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [69-52 +71.79u]
LAST: [8-9 -13.95u]

7/8 TUE

• 6/5.00 WAS +1½ -120
• 5/5.25 STL u8½ +105
• 6/4.08 SF -147
• 5/4.35 SF u8 -115
• 6/5.40 DET u8½ -111
• 5/4.55 TOR -1½ -110
• 7/3.52 HOU -199
• 5/4.76 NYM o10 -105
• 5/2.98 PIT +1½ -168
• 6/6.06 SAC +101
• 5/5.15 ATL o10½ +103

​

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 9, (BOS, DET) 4, (PIT, ATL, LAD) -4
• DOGS ON ML 56-58 49.1% +11.8% ROI L10 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 57-26 68.7% +18.3% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • IMANAGA(CHC) 9-2 +56% AWAY W/3.466
  • GRAY(STL) 13-4 +66.3% @HOME w/2.866
  • BELLO(BOS) 12-5 +30.8% @HOME w/3.828
  • KERSHAW(LAD) 6-2 +32.5% AWAY w/4.330
  • BASSITT(TOR) 3-10 -52.7% @HOME w/4.301
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • BROWN(HOU) 7-1 +43.5% w/2.28 / 0.99 / 3.2.07
  • KERSHAW(LAD) 7-1 +39.5% w/2.68 / 1.18 / 4.330
  • BELLO(BOS) 2-5 -37.1% w/2.75 / 1.19 / 3.828
• Note: ALL xFIP #'s ARE FOR THE L365 DAYS
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 34-11 +7.5% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 26-19 +5.9% ROI
  • COL UNDERS AWAY 27-16-2 62.8% +19.5% ROI

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7491914798402145578

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Marlins keeping it up. Have now won 10 straight on the road!

Best road team on the season where it matters...PROFIT!

 

[mrpickem]

JULY: [77-54 +96.82u]
LAST: [8-2-1 +25.03u]

Thanks to the gambling gods for them totals...



...and the 9th in frisco

https://packaged-media.redd.it/oby8f89n0sbf1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1752066000&s=b2368b5ac411570e7cb1f1250a610e38739ac393

SF radio announcer's iconic call

https://www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants/comments/1lv9z45/flemings_call_of_the_walkoff

7/9 WED

• 5/7.20 MIL +144
• 8/7.62 MIL u8½ -105
• 5/5.70 SF +114
• 6/6.00 SD u8 +100
• 5/5.35 WAS +107
• 5/4.54 STL u8 -110
• 6/5.30 SD u8 -113
• 6/5.00 DET u8½ -120
• 6/5.45 CHW u8½ -110
• 4/5.08 CLE +127
• 5/2.94 CLE +1½ -170
• 5/6.05 LAA +121
• 4/2.96 LAA +1½ -135
• 5/6.85 BAL +137
• 7/2.45 BOS -285
• 4/2.77 BOS -1½ -144
• 6/5.22 MIN u9½ -115
• 6/6.00 KAN u8½ +100
• 6/6.30 SAC +105

randoms...

• STREAKS: TOR 10, (BOS, DET) 5, SF 4, (WAS, CIN) -4, (PIT, ATL, LAD) -5
• TOR 13-2 +64% ROI LAST 15 DAYS
• DOGS ON RL 57-27 67.9% +16.6% ROI L7 DAYS
• BEST/WORST STARTERS LAST 365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
  • ROCKER(TEX) 2-6 -48.2% AWAY w/3.905
  • SENZATELA(COL) 2-7 -43.6% AWAY w/4.996
• HOT/COLD STARTERS LAST 7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
  • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +55.5% w/ 4.021 xFIP
  • ABBOTT(CIN) 6-2 +52.5% w/ 4.672
  • LAUER(TOR) 5-1 +39.5% w/ 4.023
  • PFAADT(ARI) 2-6 -49.7% w/ 3.193
  • LUZARDO(PHI) 2-6 -52.8% w/ 3.272
  • ELDER(ATL) 1-5 -78.9% w/ 3.994
• ROCKIES 2025 FACTOR
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 35-11 +8.1% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 27-19 +7.4% ROI
  • COL UNDERS AWAY 27-17-2 61.4% +17.1% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

CUBS new #1 in model rating as doyers continue to struggle. Jays and HOU continue climbing while Tigs get no respect.