July 25 MLB Discussion Chucky wants to make some winning picks

T-Rex said:
Mr P, why is this one a steam play? It’s so long before game time still?
Click to expand...

It's based on line movement across 3 or more books. TB was +140 15 minutes ago and now +120-125

I get popups from line service and this one popped up..just so happens I was considering TB...but may have missed the value

here is line history, notice the movement came around ~815
that means usually a big syndicate is hitting multiple books all at once and large before they can move #...theoretically anyways
View attachment 33703View attachment 33704
 
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mrpickem said:
It's based on line movement across 3 or more books. TB was +140 15 minutes ago and now +120-125

I get popups from line service and this one popped up..just so happens I was considering TB...but may have missed the value

here is line history, notice the movement came around ~815
that means usually a big syndicate is hitting multiple books all at once and large before they can move #...theoretically anyways
View attachment 33703View attachment 33704
Click to expand...
Haha, yah... Ill go with theoretically. Either way, last time you called out the “steam play” it came up. It just so happens that at that time, it was after the game started and I couldn’t do anything about it. I was just wondering how it played in here since it was so long before game time with plenty of time for the line to still move either way
 
You can end up with steam both ways. Say the whale(s) want to play NYY, so they pound TB early for say 1M @ +135 and get the line moved 15 cents or so, then they can come back twice as hard on yanks -133 for 2M and they erased the TB bet without even paying juice...once again theoretically
 
Depends, one of the next two days the Angels are gonna beat the brakes off of them, which one is it?
 
Big_Degenerate said:
Pitt +188

of course they're going to lose eventually

but you keep giving me the hottest team in mlb at these kind of numbers im going to play it everytime
Click to expand...

Possibly the craziest prices I’ve ever seen!! I imagine we be hard pressed to ever find a team on the kind of hot streak pirates on getting as much plus money as they have gotten all 3 games this series..

normally when we having the discussion about “of course they gonna lose eventually, but gotta ride the wave” we looking at having to lay 2 to 1 or more on those games, certainly not getting upwards of that!!!
 
Combo of Cleaning being overrated and Put was 9 games under 500 when the streak started. They have been underperforming most of the year as they have a decent team.
 
mrpickem said:
Combo of Cleaning being overrated and Put was 9 games under 500 when the streak started. They have been underperforming most of the year as they have a decent team.
Click to expand...

I get it, but don’t really get it if ya know what I mean? Lol., just mind boggling to me a team can enter a series having won 7 (or whatever) in a row and proceed to be anywhere from +150 to +200 over those 3 games. I guess more unbelievable to me is folks were actually paying those prices to fade them. Of course I rarely understand laying north of -150 on a baseball game, certainly not saying my way any better than anyome else’s, i just know I can’t hit at the clip it takes to profit laying that kind of juice.
 
I don't think Cleveland is overrated at all but to each their own. They're in cruise control maybe.
 
KJ said:
I don't think Cleveland is overrated at all but to each their own. They're in cruise control maybe.
Click to expand...

I’m with you, I mean I think they been overpriced this series but overall if anything I don’t think they get enough credit. Like we were saying yesterday I think they capable of hanging w any of the big 3 in a playoff series.
 
2daBank said:
I get it, but don’t really get it if ya know what I mean? Lol., just mind boggling to me a team can enter a series having won 7 (or whatever) in a row and proceed to be anywhere from +150 to +200 over those 3 games. I guess more unbelievable to me is folks were actually paying those prices to fade them. Of course I rarely understand laying north of -150 on a baseball game, certainly not saying my way any better than anyome else’s, i just know I can’t hit at the clip it takes to profit laying that kind of juice.
Click to expand...

You are right. I tried to search team on 8 game win streak getting over +200 and never happened so I had to reduce number to 5 or more wins in a row to even get 50 or so results in history on sdql.

Of note chisox have won the first 2 games vs LAA at over 160 dogs and are over 160 again today

pit was only +155 yesterday at close

but yeah, I get it, this has never happened that I can recall
 
San Fran +130 for me. Giants lineup full of guys that have hit leake, cutch only guy that doesn’t have a ops above .850 and he still sporting a .276 ba vs him. In 4 starts leake has never won a game w this ump. Seattle seems to be sliding.
 
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