July 2015

hugh613

Pretty much a regular
YTD: 43-40-4, -0.38

Tuesday:

7/7/2015 8:40 PM MLB Baseball 929 Los Angeles Angels/Colorado Rockies* Over 9½ -130

*Talk about ZERO interest in betting baseball this season, but I'll give it a go tonight... Anyways, seeing the guys in the discussion thread mention how this was Andrew Heaney's first career start at Coors got me to thinking, so here goes:

  • Heaney's been fairly brilliant in his two starts since being called up but, at the same time, a) both starts were at home and b) the two starts were against teams in the bottom third in terms of batting average (HOU and NYM), so not necessarily a huge surprise there.
  • Those two starts stand in sharp contrast to his numbers from his debut last season with the Marlins (5.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 29.1 IP) and his numbers at AAA Salt Lake earlier this season (4.71 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 78.1 IP)
  • Within this context, Salt Lake is actually kind of instructional in that it's an extreme hitters park in an extreme hitters league (I couldn't find the exact ballpark stats, but given that Salt Lake has the highest ERA (5.58) in the PCL and the second highest BA (.283) in the PCL, probably not a stretch to think the park plays like a bandbox). This, of course, is kind of important in that Heaney got positively smoked in his 6 starts at home this season (6.09 ERA, 1.68 WHIP in 34.0 IP). Probably not an encouraging sign heading into his first career start at the majors most extreme hitters ballpark (that and he got knocked around in all three of his starts on the road last season with the Marlins as well).
As far as Chad Bettis goes, meh... To be honest, I couldn't really find as much compelling evidence against him as I did Heaney, but still... the Angels are coming into town on the heels of a huge offensive output over the weekend in Arlington and most of the time (not all the time, but most of the time) that ends up trumping good pitching, so we'll see.

Anyways, looks like a nice humid night in Denver (with a chance of showers) so hopefully that means the ball's flying tonight and I didn't just write all this in advance of a 2-1 final (d'oh!)

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LOL, this is why I don't usually bother with writeups - do a long winded soliloquy about why Heaney should have problems tonight, and it ends up being Bettis that gets smoked. Plus, looks like I forgot to mark down that it was 2 unit play, but oh well - hopefully the rain holds off until the end of the game.
 
YTD: 44-40-4, +0.62

Wednesday:

7/8/2015 8:40 PM MLB Baseball 979 Los Angeles Angels/Colorado Rockies* Over 10½ -110
*Not going to do a long winded writeup like yesterday, but figured I should at least write something, so...

Matt Shoemaker's 5-1-1 O/U on the road this season with a fairly robust run support of 6.71 RPG in seven starts, and Christopher Rusin's seen an offensive explosion in his starts since the beginning of June (12+ runs in four of his last six outings). Couple that with an Angels offense clicking on all cylinders, a dormant Rockies offense long overdue, and another nice humid night in Denver (although with rain in the forecast), think this one's got the opportunity to be another one of those Coors Field evenings.

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YTD: 44-41-4, -0.48

Thursday:

7/9/2015 8:40 PM MLB Baseball 905 Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies* Over 9½ -130 *2 UNITS*
*The lack of originality with my picks is shocking, I know...

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surprised u didnt slip in just a bit on the Braves with Wood on the Mound and Kendrick struggling

BOL hugh
 
Thanks hound and dilaudid. @hound - I swore off betting sides at Coors years ago. I know the ballpark doesn't play the way it once did, but you see enough 5 run leads disappear in the blink of an eye, it tends to have a lasting effect on you : )
 
YTD: 44-42-4, -3.08

Saturday:

7/11/2015 4:10 PM MLB Baseball 903 Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies* Over 9½ -125 *2 UNITS*
*The last three games at Coors have had 22, 26, and 20 hits, and not a single over between them. Try, try again...

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