Joe's Sucker Bowl plays

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Just so they're posted.

Over 47.5 - 1.5 units

Balty ML - .5 unit
Balty +10.5/over 41 tease - .5 unit
Balty ML/over - .5 units

I think it opens up today. Maybe not from the outset, but I think it gets there. I've yet to see somebody in the playoffs really stop Torrey Smith and this is probably Boldin's last chance for a ring. And Boldin has been playing like a beast in the playoffs. I see him getting his today.

The conditions are also great for Flacco. He has a big arm and a good deep ball which makes the lack of elements to deal with fall in his favor. What worked for the Ravens against the Pats, and even the Donks in a lot of ways, was throwing the ball. Much as I and others think Ray Rice is probably the best they've got, that offense seems to work when they put the ball in Flacco's hands.

On the other side, Moss has the same motivation as Boldin so I expect him to show up today and every TE the Ravens have faced has eaten them up because that defense may be smart, but it's also old and slow. So it's hard not to see Davis having a good day today.

My guess is 27-24, 31-24 something like that.

There is the chance that they both play it really tight and try to run all day, but I'm going to take that risk and look for points.

I'm also rolling with the team of destiny this year.

Go Blackbirds.

Good luck today, everybody.
 
GL Joe. I think Ravens get it done. The total I'm hoping stays under but really would like to see the Ravens get it. Enjoy the game!
 
Muchas gracias, Sharky.

Good luck to you today, as well.

I can make the case for the under. I almost had to at a poker table yesterday which is always weird when you're on the other side of a bet. But the under makes a ton of sense. I think there's a real possibility the game starts off very slow with neither team wanting to make any kind of mistake. If that holds for too long we don't get out of the first half with enough points and a total this high becomes really hard to hit.

That said, I do think Kap is good for at least one INT. Flacco should be as well so hopefully we can get some short fields today.

I also hope that whatever influences are out there, be they from the league or just the universe at large, give us the heavyweight title fight we all really want. Big punches landed all day for a really fun game. Sort of a sandlot thing that you'd hope for from two brothers battling it out.

Shit, I'd be happy with 45-41 as a final with some Boise State style Frank Gore throwing a TD pass kind of shit today.

We don't need it every year, but I think one of those SBs would be a ton of fun, especially after such a great, great playoffs.

Oh, and speaking of which, a friend of mine worked on the NFL's SB ad and I saw it this AM. It's pretty funny, mostly because it involves Deion Sanders in a porn 'stache.

=)
 
Also, for the record, I wouldn't have played this total at anything above 49. And I probably would have only bet it small at 49 rather than for a full unit or more. So the move was part of this play as well.

And, like a moron, I bet the ML in the middle of the week at +155 and last night I saw like +175/+180. Hrumph.

Let's do this, Charm City.
 
Well, you know Joe, there is a pretty nice window there where we can both win on the total with those teasers. Would be a sweet ending to both of us :)
 
Why would Balt try to run all day? Flacco has 8 TD's to 0 INT in the playoffs this year


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[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]2012 Postseason[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]853[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]54.8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]9.17[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]70[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]77.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right"]114.7[/TD]
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