NFL Week 4 Parlay Includes Upset-Minded Jets
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh
TJ Watt Trend
After losing to a beleaguered Cleveland team against which they normally had enjoyed success, the Steelers dropped to 0-6 SU in games without TJ Watt, their star linebacker and pass rusher who suffered a torn pectoral muscle.
Watt's absence removes the "under" from consideration of potential plays because, without him, the Steelers achieve 1.8 fewer sacks and allow 5.9 more points per game.
Besides the defense as a whole, Watt's absence also affects other key defenders.
Cameron Heyward, for example, has achieved zero sacks since Watt left the field in the season opener.
Without having to worry about Watt, opposing defenses are able to devote increased attention to stopping Heyward.
Also, without Watt generating quick and effective pressure, increased strain is placed on the pass coverage abilities of Pittsburgh's linebackers and defensive backs.
Jet Weapons
Quarterback Zach Wilson should return to action for the Jets.
Observations of his poor passing metrics last year are a bit disingenuous because they obscure the improvements that he achieved particularly towards the end of the season.
His improved performances persisted even without the services of then-top receiver Elijah Moore and Corey Davis whose absence pitifully left Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios to be Wilson's top targets.
This year, Wilson gets speedy deep threat Moore and fellow deep threat Davis again, upstart rookie Garrett Wilson, and valuable acquired tight end Tyler Conklin.
Relying on excellent route-running, Wilson is his team's co-leader in receptions along with Conklin.
Measuring Pittsburgh's Offensive Problems
The obvious worry with Wilson is the time that he may require to develop chemistry with his new targets -- although he already has Davis and Moore among other familiar friends available to him.
But such a concern ignores Pittsburgh's pass pressure issues, which will ensure that Wilson remains comfortable in the pocket -- although Wilson is also notoriously elusive, and he ably makes plays outside the pocket.
Such a worry also feels disingenuous in view of the problems suffered by Pittsburgh's entire offense.
Plagued by uncertainty at offensive coordinator, a terrible quarterback, and an anemic running game, the Steeler offense is averaging 18 points per game, which includes overtime and a defensive touchdown.
Mitch Trubisky and Najee Harris
Trubisky regularly struggles to reach 200 yards passing despite attempting more deep balls than any other quarterback.
He normally suffers from inefficiency despite averaging all of 5.5 YPA.
Trubisky will want to rely on play-action because that is arguably his absolute strength as a passer, but play-action depends on strong running back play to be effective, and that is something Trubisky cannot count on.
Held back by run-blocking issues and his characteristic lack of vision, Najee Harris is averaging a paltry 3.2 YPC.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
Russell Wilson Struggling
Before Russell Wilson's first game as a Bronco, people asked what effect his downgrade in pass-catching targets would have on his performance.
Wilson had superb wide receivers in Seattle but now has to rely on Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, although running back Javonte Williams actually has the second-most targets on the team.
Largely as a consequence of this downgrade in pass-catching ability, Wilson is suffering career lows in completion percentage, YPA, and touchdowns per game.
Lack of Blocking
Pass protection is also an issue: Denver ranks 23rd in limiting its rate of sacks allowed.
This is a factor that Las Vegas is primed to exploit with two star pass rushers in Chandler Jones and the especially productive Maxx Crosby.
Denver's rushing numbers are a bit inflated by facing Houston's atrocious last-placed run defense.
But YPC are especially harder to come by for Bronco running backs now that guard Quinn Meinerz is injured.
The Raider run defense enters this game well-tested after stymying Charger running back Austin Ekeler and most recently largely holding Titan star Derrick Henry in check, limiting him to 3.1 YPC apart from one 24-yard scamper.
Bronco Defense vs. Raider Offense
One may say that the Bronco defense has benefitted from facing soft tests.
But two of the three quarterbacks it's faced had their worst passer rating of the season in their game against Denver.
Plus, Derek Carr is having one of the worst seasons of his career in terms of passer rating, especially since he and Davante Adams have done little together since the season opener against a beleaguered Charger secondary.
For Denver, cornerback Pat Surtain excels at limiting separation.
He's yielding a 63.1 passer rating when targeted largely because of his ability to prevent his opponent from gaining a big reception if any reception at all.
Parlay Verdict
Expect the Jet offense to have a decisive edge in its upset over Pittsburgh and Denver to be engaged in another low-scoring battle that foregrounds Crosby, Surtain, and other key defenders.
Best Bet: Parlay Jets +3 at -102 & Broncos/Raiders under 45.5 at -110 at +278 odds with BetOnline
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh
TJ Watt Trend
After losing to a beleaguered Cleveland team against which they normally had enjoyed success, the Steelers dropped to 0-6 SU in games without TJ Watt, their star linebacker and pass rusher who suffered a torn pectoral muscle.
Watt's absence removes the "under" from consideration of potential plays because, without him, the Steelers achieve 1.8 fewer sacks and allow 5.9 more points per game.
Besides the defense as a whole, Watt's absence also affects other key defenders.
Cameron Heyward, for example, has achieved zero sacks since Watt left the field in the season opener.
Without having to worry about Watt, opposing defenses are able to devote increased attention to stopping Heyward.
Also, without Watt generating quick and effective pressure, increased strain is placed on the pass coverage abilities of Pittsburgh's linebackers and defensive backs.
Jet Weapons
Quarterback Zach Wilson should return to action for the Jets.
Observations of his poor passing metrics last year are a bit disingenuous because they obscure the improvements that he achieved particularly towards the end of the season.
His improved performances persisted even without the services of then-top receiver Elijah Moore and Corey Davis whose absence pitifully left Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios to be Wilson's top targets.
This year, Wilson gets speedy deep threat Moore and fellow deep threat Davis again, upstart rookie Garrett Wilson, and valuable acquired tight end Tyler Conklin.
Relying on excellent route-running, Wilson is his team's co-leader in receptions along with Conklin.
Measuring Pittsburgh's Offensive Problems
The obvious worry with Wilson is the time that he may require to develop chemistry with his new targets -- although he already has Davis and Moore among other familiar friends available to him.
But such a concern ignores Pittsburgh's pass pressure issues, which will ensure that Wilson remains comfortable in the pocket -- although Wilson is also notoriously elusive, and he ably makes plays outside the pocket.
Such a worry also feels disingenuous in view of the problems suffered by Pittsburgh's entire offense.
Plagued by uncertainty at offensive coordinator, a terrible quarterback, and an anemic running game, the Steeler offense is averaging 18 points per game, which includes overtime and a defensive touchdown.
Mitch Trubisky and Najee Harris
Trubisky regularly struggles to reach 200 yards passing despite attempting more deep balls than any other quarterback.
He normally suffers from inefficiency despite averaging all of 5.5 YPA.
Trubisky will want to rely on play-action because that is arguably his absolute strength as a passer, but play-action depends on strong running back play to be effective, and that is something Trubisky cannot count on.
Held back by run-blocking issues and his characteristic lack of vision, Najee Harris is averaging a paltry 3.2 YPC.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
Russell Wilson Struggling
Before Russell Wilson's first game as a Bronco, people asked what effect his downgrade in pass-catching targets would have on his performance.
Wilson had superb wide receivers in Seattle but now has to rely on Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, although running back Javonte Williams actually has the second-most targets on the team.
Largely as a consequence of this downgrade in pass-catching ability, Wilson is suffering career lows in completion percentage, YPA, and touchdowns per game.
Lack of Blocking
Pass protection is also an issue: Denver ranks 23rd in limiting its rate of sacks allowed.
This is a factor that Las Vegas is primed to exploit with two star pass rushers in Chandler Jones and the especially productive Maxx Crosby.
Denver's rushing numbers are a bit inflated by facing Houston's atrocious last-placed run defense.
But YPC are especially harder to come by for Bronco running backs now that guard Quinn Meinerz is injured.
The Raider run defense enters this game well-tested after stymying Charger running back Austin Ekeler and most recently largely holding Titan star Derrick Henry in check, limiting him to 3.1 YPC apart from one 24-yard scamper.
Bronco Defense vs. Raider Offense
One may say that the Bronco defense has benefitted from facing soft tests.
But two of the three quarterbacks it's faced had their worst passer rating of the season in their game against Denver.
Plus, Derek Carr is having one of the worst seasons of his career in terms of passer rating, especially since he and Davante Adams have done little together since the season opener against a beleaguered Charger secondary.
For Denver, cornerback Pat Surtain excels at limiting separation.
He's yielding a 63.1 passer rating when targeted largely because of his ability to prevent his opponent from gaining a big reception if any reception at all.
Parlay Verdict
Expect the Jet offense to have a decisive edge in its upset over Pittsburgh and Denver to be engaged in another low-scoring battle that foregrounds Crosby, Surtain, and other key defenders.
Best Bet: Parlay Jets +3 at -102 & Broncos/Raiders under 45.5 at -110 at +278 odds with BetOnline
