Clippers vs Jazz: NBA Picks and Predictions
Los Angeles Clippers vs Utah
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 10 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Utah
Odds, Trends, And Injuries
Oddsmakers opened Utah as small favorites and the line continues to hover around 1.5 and 2.5. With the spread so close to PK, it’s worth noting that the Jazz are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games.
Paul George is the only notable injury as the Clippers continue to miss him indefinitely.
Offensively, Utah Is Climbing Mountains
If you look at the season stats, they still reflect a monstrously difficult start for Utah’s offense. Guys like Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, and Joe Ingles are suffering a strong drop from last year in points per game and the first two a strong increase in turnovers per game.
Pace is slow — Utah ranks third-to-last in the category as it consistently takes too much time to get into its offensive sets. In general, the team is playing sloppy, is showing lack of chemistry, is not shooting as well as it should, (looking at you, Conley!) and is not always putting its players in the best position to succeed offensively.
So How Are The Jazz 3-1?
Currently, Utah boasts the best defense in terms of defensive rating. The Jazz have held all four opponents to fewer than 100 points and two of their opponents to fewer than 90 points.
Utah has the personnel to succeed defensively, Notable defenders include Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, each of whom scores highly for their respective position in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, a statistic which measures a defender’s impact in terms of points per 100 possessions. Last year, Gobert ranked first among all players in the category.
Combined with its offensive woes, Utah has been a perfect ‚under‘ team. The ‚under‘ is 4-0 thus far.
In my mind, the best bet for this game will be either the Jazz „under“ or the Jazz ML. How do we choose?
Utah’s Offense Has Shown Bright Spots
Last Saturday, Utah scored 116 points against the Kings. While still clamping down on defense, the Jazz erupted offensively out of the gates, producing 66 points in the first half.
Mike Conley made some shots and Mitchell was three-for-three from three. Gobert, last year’s most efficient scorer in the NBA by percentage, went three-for-three from two. Most notably, Bojan Bogdanovic was stellar.
One could counter that the Jazz simply faced a poor defense. But what are the Clippers? L.A. ranks one spot better than Sacramento in defensive rating and hasn’t faced Utah yet.
This season, Bogdanovic is averaging 23.7 points per game. The stretch four can score from anywhere. He’s converting 45.5 percent of his threes while his composure getting into the lane and his mid-range jumper ability make him superbly versatile, a weapon against different defensive looks.
He can space the floor with his three-point prowess, thus better enabling guys like Mitchell and Conley to make more shots.
At home, Utah has shown some promise offensively. In general, its sloppiness, disappointing shooting and general offensive underachievement will not last all season., But, given its personnel, its strong defense will.
The Clippers Do Not Defend Well
L.A. is built for offense. It relies heavily on guys who they need to score, but also experience some mixture of inability and unwillingness to play good defense.
The Clippers, on average, are about 20 points better defensively in each of the following three scenarios: one, when Lou Williams sits, two, when Montrezl Harrell sits, three, when Landry Shamet sits. But those guys don’t and can’t sit much. Their poor defense will be showcased tonight as they account for about 40 percent of their team’s minutes combined.
Also, L.A. offers relatively little at the center position, which means that Rudy Gobert has a promising match-up tonight.
As a team, handling screens and perimeter defense have been among the defense's biggest problems.
Conclusion
Utah enjoys the personnel and team defense to slow down L.A. while it’s offense can reproduce enough spark at home against a disappointing Clipper defense.
Best Bet: Jazz ML at -115 odds with Bovada
Los Angeles Clippers vs Utah
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 10 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Utah
Odds, Trends, And Injuries
Oddsmakers opened Utah as small favorites and the line continues to hover around 1.5 and 2.5. With the spread so close to PK, it’s worth noting that the Jazz are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games.
Paul George is the only notable injury as the Clippers continue to miss him indefinitely.
Offensively, Utah Is Climbing Mountains
If you look at the season stats, they still reflect a monstrously difficult start for Utah’s offense. Guys like Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, and Joe Ingles are suffering a strong drop from last year in points per game and the first two a strong increase in turnovers per game.
Pace is slow — Utah ranks third-to-last in the category as it consistently takes too much time to get into its offensive sets. In general, the team is playing sloppy, is showing lack of chemistry, is not shooting as well as it should, (looking at you, Conley!) and is not always putting its players in the best position to succeed offensively.
So How Are The Jazz 3-1?
Currently, Utah boasts the best defense in terms of defensive rating. The Jazz have held all four opponents to fewer than 100 points and two of their opponents to fewer than 90 points.
Utah has the personnel to succeed defensively, Notable defenders include Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, each of whom scores highly for their respective position in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, a statistic which measures a defender’s impact in terms of points per 100 possessions. Last year, Gobert ranked first among all players in the category.
Combined with its offensive woes, Utah has been a perfect ‚under‘ team. The ‚under‘ is 4-0 thus far.
In my mind, the best bet for this game will be either the Jazz „under“ or the Jazz ML. How do we choose?
Utah’s Offense Has Shown Bright Spots
Last Saturday, Utah scored 116 points against the Kings. While still clamping down on defense, the Jazz erupted offensively out of the gates, producing 66 points in the first half.
Mike Conley made some shots and Mitchell was three-for-three from three. Gobert, last year’s most efficient scorer in the NBA by percentage, went three-for-three from two. Most notably, Bojan Bogdanovic was stellar.
One could counter that the Jazz simply faced a poor defense. But what are the Clippers? L.A. ranks one spot better than Sacramento in defensive rating and hasn’t faced Utah yet.
This season, Bogdanovic is averaging 23.7 points per game. The stretch four can score from anywhere. He’s converting 45.5 percent of his threes while his composure getting into the lane and his mid-range jumper ability make him superbly versatile, a weapon against different defensive looks.
He can space the floor with his three-point prowess, thus better enabling guys like Mitchell and Conley to make more shots.
At home, Utah has shown some promise offensively. In general, its sloppiness, disappointing shooting and general offensive underachievement will not last all season., But, given its personnel, its strong defense will.
The Clippers Do Not Defend Well
L.A. is built for offense. It relies heavily on guys who they need to score, but also experience some mixture of inability and unwillingness to play good defense.
The Clippers, on average, are about 20 points better defensively in each of the following three scenarios: one, when Lou Williams sits, two, when Montrezl Harrell sits, three, when Landry Shamet sits. But those guys don’t and can’t sit much. Their poor defense will be showcased tonight as they account for about 40 percent of their team’s minutes combined.
Also, L.A. offers relatively little at the center position, which means that Rudy Gobert has a promising match-up tonight.
As a team, handling screens and perimeter defense have been among the defense's biggest problems.
Conclusion
Utah enjoys the personnel and team defense to slow down L.A. while it’s offense can reproduce enough spark at home against a disappointing Clipper defense.
Best Bet: Jazz ML at -115 odds with Bovada
