NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Utah Jazz vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, January 8, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Path To The Rim
On paper, Milwaukee appears to have a problem: the Bucks want to attack the rim with the likes of perennial MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo.
On the other side, Utah features center Rudy Gobert, who has won the Defensive Player of the Year award multiple times primarily for his elite rim protection.
So the key for any team facing Utah is to draw Gobert away from the basket. Milwaukee absolutely has the personnel to do this.
Gobert will be matched up against center Brook Lopez. Milwaukee’s center is a constant threat behind the arc. This season, Lopez is converting 42.4 percent of his three-point attempts.
Lopez will force Gobert to attend to him away from the basket.
At the power forward position, Utah prides itself on defensive versatility. Royce O’Neale, for example, will guard multiple positions.
But when it comes to guarding “actual,” well-sized power forwards, one has to be concerned.
Giannis owns a significant advantage in size. With his strength, he can overpower Utah’s power forwards inside.
It is already difficult to deter Giannis as he characteristically drives to to the rim, where he accumulates most of his 26.1 points per game.
Jrue Holiday’s Defense
Offensively, Utah is very much guard-centered.
So Utah wants to have especially Donovan Mitchell drive to the basket. Many of the Jazz’s points are supposed to come from Mitchell’s ability to create points for himself by finding holes in the paint.
The problem is Jrue Holiday. Milwaukee’s guard has cultivated a reputation for himself as an elite defender.
Holiday distinguishes himself with quick hands, quick feet, positive footwork, tenacity, awareness, and nice size at 6-4.
With these traits, Holiday is a two-time member of the NBA’s All-Defensive Team. Many NBA stars spoke out last year because they believed that Holiday was snubbed from the All-Defensive team last season.
It’s unfavorable for the Jazz to have an opposing defender who can lock down the opponent’s top guard because it means that they will need to somehow locate more offense from guys other than Mitchell, although he’s responsible for close to a fifth of the team’s overall average scoring.
Streaks
The Jazz are staying on the road as part of a road trip that has been miserable for them.
Although favored against the Nets, they lost by 34 points.
Despite being favored by eight against the Knicks, they lost by 12.
Conversely, Milwaukee has not had to travel at all.
The Bucks have won three in a row with each win coming by double digits at home.
While Utah is a tougher team in name than Milwaukee’s most recent opponents, the Jazz aren’t playing like a tough team.
Charlotte Hornets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Friday, January 8, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Putting Worries To Rest
When considering an over or under bet on any team, you have to consider whether the offense can exploit that team’s weakness on defense.
In this case, both the Pelicans and Hornets do a terrible job of defending the perimeter.
Opposing three-point percentage is not by itself the best measure of a team’s perimeter defense because this statistic doesn’t account for probability.
A defense can do everything possible to limit the opponent’s probability of converting a shot attempt by strongly contesting that attempt and yet that shot attempt can still go in.
I consider the three-point defense of both the Pelicans and Hornets to be terrible because they frequently do little to challenge opposing three-point shooters.
New Orleans allows the highest rate of wide open three-point attempts, meaning that Pelican defenders are frequently six or more feet removed from opposing three-point shooters when they attempt a three-pointer.
Charlotte’s three-point defense is terrible, too, in that the Hornets rank third-highest in the category.
The Hornets, though, are not equipped to exploit New Orleans’ defensive weakness because their offense owns the fourth-worst conversation rate of wide open three-point attempts.
This year, the addition of LaMelo Ball was supposed to facilitate the growth of Terry Rozier’s spot-up opportunities.
Yet Rozier is normally an ineffective three-point shooter although his volume is consistently high. He’s converted two or fewer three-point attempts in six of eight games so far.
Regarding the Pelicans, they will likewise fail to take advantage of what Charlotte concedes behind the arc because they are the NBA’s worst three-point shooting team by percentage.
Battle of Tempos
It may be odd to see that the “under” is 6-2 in Charlotte games so far when you consider that the Hornets have made it a mission to play smaller and faster this year.
Hornet games tend to stay under because the Hornets often struggle to use their tempo to establish a rhythm offensively.
Their shooters are frequently inefficient and they often lack confidence, which is why they tend to appear hesitant. Their consistent struggles explain why the team as a whole ranks 26th in scoring.
The Pelicans are one of the slowest teams in terms of pace. They will control tempo and limit Charlotte’s second-chance opportunities off missed shots particularly by controlling the glass. The Pelicans rank fourth in defensive rebounds per game.
Ball-Screen Defense
Charlotte is, instead, relying especially on its defense to stay competitive.
The Hornets have faced plenty of higher-ranked (as measured by play frequency and PPP — points per possession) ball-screen offenses like Dallas’ and Atlanta’s.
And the Hornets won those game while limiting the opposing offense to fewer than 100 points.
New Orleans, too, is a team that likes to run a lot of ball-screen actions and they tend to execute them well.
But the Hornets allow the lowest PPP against this play type despite being well-tested.
Parlay Verdict
Milwaukee will have its way at the rim with Gobert drawn away from the basket and Giannis overpowering Utah’s undersized power forwards.
Defensively, Jrue Holiday will lock down Utah’s best source of offense, which is leading scorer Donovan Mitchell.
Charlotte and New Orleans will want to exploit open three-point opportunities, but will largely fail to do so.
Instead, the Hornets want to run in transition. But the Pelicans will slow the game down especially by controlling the glass with their strength in the frontcourt.
The Pelicans want to execute a lot of ball-screens, but will struggle with them against Charlotte’s well-tested and highly-ranked ball-screen defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks -5.5 at -112 & Hornets/Pelicans Under 216.5 at -110 at +261 odds with BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, January 8, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Path To The Rim
On paper, Milwaukee appears to have a problem: the Bucks want to attack the rim with the likes of perennial MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo.
On the other side, Utah features center Rudy Gobert, who has won the Defensive Player of the Year award multiple times primarily for his elite rim protection.
So the key for any team facing Utah is to draw Gobert away from the basket. Milwaukee absolutely has the personnel to do this.
Gobert will be matched up against center Brook Lopez. Milwaukee’s center is a constant threat behind the arc. This season, Lopez is converting 42.4 percent of his three-point attempts.
Lopez will force Gobert to attend to him away from the basket.
At the power forward position, Utah prides itself on defensive versatility. Royce O’Neale, for example, will guard multiple positions.
But when it comes to guarding “actual,” well-sized power forwards, one has to be concerned.
Giannis owns a significant advantage in size. With his strength, he can overpower Utah’s power forwards inside.
It is already difficult to deter Giannis as he characteristically drives to to the rim, where he accumulates most of his 26.1 points per game.
Jrue Holiday’s Defense
Offensively, Utah is very much guard-centered.
So Utah wants to have especially Donovan Mitchell drive to the basket. Many of the Jazz’s points are supposed to come from Mitchell’s ability to create points for himself by finding holes in the paint.
The problem is Jrue Holiday. Milwaukee’s guard has cultivated a reputation for himself as an elite defender.
Holiday distinguishes himself with quick hands, quick feet, positive footwork, tenacity, awareness, and nice size at 6-4.
With these traits, Holiday is a two-time member of the NBA’s All-Defensive Team. Many NBA stars spoke out last year because they believed that Holiday was snubbed from the All-Defensive team last season.
It’s unfavorable for the Jazz to have an opposing defender who can lock down the opponent’s top guard because it means that they will need to somehow locate more offense from guys other than Mitchell, although he’s responsible for close to a fifth of the team’s overall average scoring.
Streaks
The Jazz are staying on the road as part of a road trip that has been miserable for them.
Although favored against the Nets, they lost by 34 points.
Despite being favored by eight against the Knicks, they lost by 12.
Conversely, Milwaukee has not had to travel at all.
The Bucks have won three in a row with each win coming by double digits at home.
While Utah is a tougher team in name than Milwaukee’s most recent opponents, the Jazz aren’t playing like a tough team.
Charlotte Hornets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Friday, January 8, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
Putting Worries To Rest
When considering an over or under bet on any team, you have to consider whether the offense can exploit that team’s weakness on defense.
In this case, both the Pelicans and Hornets do a terrible job of defending the perimeter.
Opposing three-point percentage is not by itself the best measure of a team’s perimeter defense because this statistic doesn’t account for probability.
A defense can do everything possible to limit the opponent’s probability of converting a shot attempt by strongly contesting that attempt and yet that shot attempt can still go in.
I consider the three-point defense of both the Pelicans and Hornets to be terrible because they frequently do little to challenge opposing three-point shooters.
New Orleans allows the highest rate of wide open three-point attempts, meaning that Pelican defenders are frequently six or more feet removed from opposing three-point shooters when they attempt a three-pointer.
Charlotte’s three-point defense is terrible, too, in that the Hornets rank third-highest in the category.
The Hornets, though, are not equipped to exploit New Orleans’ defensive weakness because their offense owns the fourth-worst conversation rate of wide open three-point attempts.
This year, the addition of LaMelo Ball was supposed to facilitate the growth of Terry Rozier’s spot-up opportunities.
Yet Rozier is normally an ineffective three-point shooter although his volume is consistently high. He’s converted two or fewer three-point attempts in six of eight games so far.
Regarding the Pelicans, they will likewise fail to take advantage of what Charlotte concedes behind the arc because they are the NBA’s worst three-point shooting team by percentage.
Battle of Tempos
It may be odd to see that the “under” is 6-2 in Charlotte games so far when you consider that the Hornets have made it a mission to play smaller and faster this year.
Hornet games tend to stay under because the Hornets often struggle to use their tempo to establish a rhythm offensively.
Their shooters are frequently inefficient and they often lack confidence, which is why they tend to appear hesitant. Their consistent struggles explain why the team as a whole ranks 26th in scoring.
The Pelicans are one of the slowest teams in terms of pace. They will control tempo and limit Charlotte’s second-chance opportunities off missed shots particularly by controlling the glass. The Pelicans rank fourth in defensive rebounds per game.
Ball-Screen Defense
Charlotte is, instead, relying especially on its defense to stay competitive.
The Hornets have faced plenty of higher-ranked (as measured by play frequency and PPP — points per possession) ball-screen offenses like Dallas’ and Atlanta’s.
And the Hornets won those game while limiting the opposing offense to fewer than 100 points.
New Orleans, too, is a team that likes to run a lot of ball-screen actions and they tend to execute them well.
But the Hornets allow the lowest PPP against this play type despite being well-tested.
Parlay Verdict
Milwaukee will have its way at the rim with Gobert drawn away from the basket and Giannis overpowering Utah’s undersized power forwards.
Defensively, Jrue Holiday will lock down Utah’s best source of offense, which is leading scorer Donovan Mitchell.
Charlotte and New Orleans will want to exploit open three-point opportunities, but will largely fail to do so.
Instead, the Hornets want to run in transition. But the Pelicans will slow the game down especially by controlling the glass with their strength in the frontcourt.
The Pelicans want to execute a lot of ball-screens, but will struggle with them against Charlotte’s well-tested and highly-ranked ball-screen defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Bucks -5.5 at -112 & Hornets/Pelicans Under 216.5 at -110 at +261 odds with BetOnline
