January 2017

[hugh613]

MTD: 0-0, +/-0.00

Sunday:

1/1/2017 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 2004 Perth Glory (AUS-A)/West Sydney (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -183
1/1/2017 10:00 AM England Soccer 222 Torquay (ENG-Nat)/Forest Green (ENG-Nat)* Over 2½,3 -106
1/1/2017 11:00 AM England Soccer 104 Crystal Palace (ENG-P)/Arsenal (ENG-P)* Over 2½ -173

*Around the world in 93 plays (ie. 3 plays a day for the next 31 days, all posted up the night before)...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 1-2, -2.56

Monday:

1/2/2017 8:00 AM England Soccer 351 Millwall (ENG-One)/AFC Wimbledon (ENG-One)* Over 2½ -130
1/2/2017 10:00 AM England Soccer 354 Sheffield United (ENG-One)/Bury (ENG-One)* Over 2½ -136
1/2/2017 10:00 AM Scotland Soccer 1054 Forfar (SCO-2)/Elgin City (SCO-2)* Over 3 -119

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 4-2, +0.44

Tuesday:

1/3/2017 2:45 PM England Soccer 1 Arsenal (ENG-P)/Bournemouth (ENG-P)* Under 2½ +125
1/3/2017 3:00 PM England Soccer 4 Swansea (ENG-P)/Crystal Palace (ENG-P)* Under 2½ +102
1/3/2017 3:00 PM England Soccer 7 Watford (ENG-P)/Stoke (ENG-P)* Under 2½ -126

*Now, before people go off running to the mods to alert them that my account has been hacked, rest assured, those are my picks and, yes, I have done the unthinkable and bet 3 unders. The reasons for this are two fold: a) thanks to the EPL's Boxing Day scheduling, all three games involve a team playing either its 2nd game in 3 days (ie. Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Watford) or 2nd game in 4 days (ie. Bournemouth, Swansea, and Stoke) which, if today's games are any indication, is not a situation that necessarily favours attacking football and b) all three games involve teams in situations favouring (in my mind) the under (injuries to key offensive players in the Arsenal game, appointment of a defensive minded manager (from what I gather) at Swansea, and H/A under streaks for both Stoke and Watford).

Worst case scenario, 1-2, but I think 2-1 is realistic under the circumstances. And for those interested, did a hard pass on a few other games (Ittihad Jeddah over in Saudi Arabia, PAOK -1 in Greece, and over at the Mestalla).

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 5-4, -0.56

Wednesday:

1/4/2017 10:15 AM Greece Soccer 505 AEK Athens (GRE-S)* -1,-1½ -109 vs Panaitolikos (GRE-S)
1/4/2017 3:15 PM Spain Soccer 320 Sevilla (ESP-Cup)/Real Madrid (ESP-Cup)* Over 2½ -183
1/4/2017 3:15 PM Portugal Soccer 801 Sporting Lisboa (POR-Taca)* -1 -128 vs Vitoria Setubal (POR-Taca)

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 6-6, -1.93

Thursday:

1/5/2017 5:00 AM Australia Soccer 401 Wellington Phoenix (AUS-A)/Perth Glory (AUS-A)* Over 3 -122
1/5/2017 2:45 PM England Soccer 301 Portsmouth (ENG-Two)/Doncaster (ENG-Two)* Under 2½ -127
1/5/2017 3:15 PM Spain Soccer 201 Barcelona (ESP-Cup)/Athletic Bilbao (ESP-Cup)* Over 2½ -148

 

[Pyppurs]

gl hugh

:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/5/2017 10:00 AM Bahrain Soccer 501 Hidd Club (BRN-FACup)/Al Najma Club (BRN-FACup)* Over 2½,3 -129
1/5/2017 12:30 PM Israel Soccer 704 Kfar Kasem (ISR-Cup)/Hapoel Haifa (ISR-Cup)* Over 2½ -143

*Tacking on a few more since there's not much of interest tomorrow (although when has that ever stopped me before...) The A-League over looks logical, but I'm getting more than just a little tired of waking up to 1-1 scorelines or pushes. FA Cup, maybe, but West Ham's been playing pretty tight as of late to avoid the relegation zone and City without Fernandinho (and I'm presuming a few more) takes away some punch. And Monaco seems right, but I just remember Falcao getting hurt in that cup game a few years ago, so I doubt they go with their regular XI (although against Ajaccio it might not matter).

Thanks Pyppurs.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 9-7-2, -0.70

Friday:

1/6/2017 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 1201 West Sydney (AUS-A)/Melbourne City (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -174

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 9-8-2, -2.44

Saturday:

1/7/2017 10:00 AM England Soccer 601 Bury (ENG-One)/Scunthorpe (ENG-One)* Over 2½,3 -116
1/7/2017 10:00 AM England Soccer 616 Sheffield United (ENG-One)/Southend (ENG-One)* Over 2½ -129
1/7/2017 10:00 AM Scotland Soccer 1861 Forfar (SCO-2)/Annan (SCO-2)* Over 3 -124
1/7/2017 10:00 AM Scotland Soccer 1870 Clyde (SCO-2)/Stirling Albion (SCO-2)* Over 2½ -145
1/7/2017 10:00 AM Scotland Soccer 1873 Elgin City (SCO-2)/Montrose (SCO-2)* Over 3 -111

*Few more than advertised but, just looking ahead on the schedule, there's barely anything to choose from the next few days: either juiced through the roof like RM this morning (although that was obviously justified from the looks of it) or the Napoli total this afternoon, or the line makes no sense (that Sevilla total should be more like OV -150). Might do the evening games, provided I don't go 0-5 this morning (you never know)...

And just out of curiousity, how the hell are they playing a game in Aleppo right now?

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 12-8-4, +0.56

Adding:

1/7/2017 6:00 PM Mexico Soccer 501 Necaxa (MEX)/Cruz Azul (MEX)* Over 2½ +115

*Just reading up on the Clausura, looks like Cruz Azul hired Paco Jemez as their new manager, formerly the Rayo Vallecano manager who, if you recall, had them play at an extremely wide open pace. Whether or not he brings that over with him to Liga MX remains to be seen, but still... Cruz Azul were 7-2 O/U at home during the Apertura, with the 2nd best offense and highest goals per game average at 3.78. Provided Necaxa can pot one (and no reason why they can't seeing as how they managed at least one goal in 6 of their last 7 regular season matches on the road), think this one should be good to go.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/7/2017 7:00 PM Costa Rica Soccer 1051 Santos de Guapiles (CRC)/Alajuelense (CRC)* Over 2½ -126
1/7/2017 8:06 PM Mexico Soccer 510 Pachuca (MEX)/Leon (MEX)* Over 2½ -137

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 14-9-4, +1.56

Adding:

1/7/2017 10:06 PM Mexico Soccer 514 Guadalaraja Chivas (MEX)* -122 vs UNAM Pumas (MEX)

 

[hugh613]

Sunday:

1/8/2017 1:00 AM Australia Soccer 3001 Sydney FC (AUS-A)/Central Coast Mariners (AUS-A)* Over 3 -139
1/8/2017 8:00 AM Greece Soccer 761 PAS Giannina (GRE-S)/PAOK (GRE-S)* Over 2½ -112
1/8/2017 8:15 AM France Soccer 351 Nice (FRA-Coupe)/Lorient (FRA-Coupe)* Over 2½ +100

*I know, again with Australia... but each of the last 6 H2H have had 4+ goals, Sydney's offense is rolling again and CCM's giving up goals in bunches at the moment. Should end 1-0... As for the rest of the day, I've short listed (I use that term loosely) some of the other games I'm mulling over, although I won't decide til tomorrow morning.

Sassuolo Over
Omonia Nicosia Over
Benfica B Over
Hoffenheim Over
Barcelona Over
Lyon Over
Puebla Over

Thought about the Cardiff Over, but meh... Liverpool and Chelsea, but both sides going with back ups. And Freiburg could be a decent bet considering PSV played Dortmund today, meaning it should be all subs or youth team members in that one.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/8/2017 9:00 AM Italy Soccer 260 Torino (ITA-A)/Sassuolo (ITA-A)* Over 2½ -133

*Nothing's getting lined (5Dimes threw up O/U odds on India and Malta, but not Portugal D2? C'mon Tony...) Oh, and scratch that on Freiburg - didn't notice they played a split squad match this morning as well.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/8/2017 11:00 AM England Soccer 213 Aston Villa (ENG-FA Cup)/Tottenham (ENG-FA Cup)* Over 2½ -152
1/8/2017 11:00 AM Spain Soccer 636 Extremadura UD (ESP-B4)/Villanovense (ESP-B4)* Over 2½ -114
1/8/2017 11:00 AM Cyprus Soccer 737 Omonia Nicosia (CYP-1)/Karmiotissa (CYP-1)* Over 2½,3 -134
1/8/2017 11:00 AM Portugal Soccer 1019 Vitoria Guimaraes II (POR-2)/Benfica II (POR-2)* Over 2½ -106
1/8/2017 11:00 AM European Cup Soccer 5208 PSV Eindhoven (Friendly)/Freiburg (Friendly)* Over 2½,3 -116

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 19-14-5, -0.39

Adding:

1/8/2017 2:30 PM Costa Rica Soccer 701 Carmelita (CRC)/Universidad de Costa Rica (CRC)* Over 2½ -117
1/8/2017 2:30 PM Costa Rica Soccer 704 Limon (CRC)/CS Cartagines (CRC)* Over 2½ -137
1/8/2017 2:45 PM Italy Soccer 273 Juventus (ITA-A)* -1½ -128 vs Bologna (ITA-A)

1/8/2017 2:45 PM Spain Soccer 310 Barcelona (ESP-P)/Villarreal (ESP-P)* Over 1,1½ -110 for 1st Half
1/8/2017 3:00 PM France Soccer 384 Montpellier (FRA-Coupe)/Lyon (FRA-Coupe)* Over 2½ -157
1/8/2017 3:15 PM Iceland Soccer 804 Fram (ISL-Cup)/Fylkir (ISL-Cup)* Over 3,3½ -117

*So much for being selective... As for the Barcelona total, the number got away from me, hence the 1H bet. Worse comes to worse, should be able to buy back in at the half at a more reasonable price if there's only the 1 goal, but really expecting Barcelona to come out with a bit of fire in their belly after that debacle at San Mames.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/8/2017 5:00 PM Costa Rica Soccer 710 Deportivo Saprissa (CRC)/San Carlos (CRC)* Over 2½,3 -122

*Need some late magic in Iceland to salvage this wretched day...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/8/2017 7:00 PM Mexico Soccer 454 Monterrey (MEX)/Puebla (MEX)* Over 2½ -148

*Meh...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 23-18-6, -0.46

Monday:

1/9/2017 12:00 PM European Cup Soccer 1313 FC Brugge (Friendly)* -111 vs Werder Bremen (Friendly)

*Talk about a whole lot of nothing to choose from today... Anyways, I'm terrible with sides, but Club Brugge is about the only thing that pops out to me at the moment: a) because they are the vastly superior side to begin with and b) Werder Bremen's playing the first of B2B friendlies at the moment against D2 side Karlsruher. Obviously it won't be the same players in both games, but just looking at the squad sheet for the first game, Bremen's got 3 of their top 5 defenders playing at the moment, along with two of their top attackers. Serge Gnabry's also a bit of a question mark, so that's a lot of key pieces MIA in the second match for a bottom of the table Bundesliga side. As for Brugge, not much news at the moment, but they went into the break on a serious roll, so even a half hearted effort should be able to bring this one home.

As for the rest of the card, meh... Not much is lined at 5Dimes as far as totals, so that cuts the card in half right off the bat. The most obvious one is Valencia, but pretty much everyone at Covers is on Valencia, and that's usually no bueno. Leeds, maybe, the over, maybe. That Panathinaikos line is a little on the silly side (usually I'm the dope that argues the linesmaker must know something and goes all in, but even I have to question this one...)

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 23-19-6, -1.57

Adding:

1/9/2017 2:30 PM Gibraltar Soccer 601 St Joseph's (GIB)/Lynx (GIB)* Over 3,3½ -116
1/9/2017 2:45 PM Spain Soccer 10334 Both teams score a goal* -130 vs A team is scoreless
1/9/2017 3:00 PM Portugal Soccer 101 Belenenses (POR)/Moreirense (POR)* Over ½,1 -122 for 1st Half

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 25-20-6, -0.79

Tuesday:

1/10/2017 2:00 PM Israel Soccer 736 Maccabi Haifa (ISR)/Hapoel Beer Sheva (ISR)* Over 2,2½ -111
1/10/2017 2:45 PM England Soccer 504 Forest Green (ENG-Nat)/Eastleigh (ENG-Nat)* Over 2½ -124
1/10/2017 3:00 PM France Soccer 407 Monaco (FRA-LigueCup)/Sochaux (FRA-LigueCup)* Over 2½ -116

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/10/2017 10:00 AM European Cup Soccer 1619 Bayern Munchen (Friendly)* -3,-3½ -107 vs Eupen (Friendly)
1/10/2017 10:30 AM Jordan Soccer 807 Sahab SC (JOR-Cup)/Al Faisaly (JOR-Cup)* Over 2½ -122
1/10/2017 10:30 AM UAE Soccer 1201 Al Ain (UAE)* -1½ -117 vs Hatta Dubai (UAE)
1/10/2017 11:00 AM European Cup Soccer 1628 Schaffhausen (Friendly)/Young Boys (Friendly)* Over 3½ -106

*Strong lineup for Bayern against a wretched Eupen side, so should be a relatively easy win (well, at least -3). The line keeps moving in the Jordanian match and I honestly have no idea why as nothing about that game says over, so I'm just going to trust that some betting syndicate in Malaysia knows something that the rest of us don't. Al Ain's kind of a no brainer, but we'll see. As for the friendly match, it was between this or Schalke, but I don't trust Schalke, so I'll go with a YB squad that's gone O/U 3.5 in it's last 8 domestic matches against the worst defensive team in an otherwise low scoring Challenge League this season (ie. Schaffhausen).

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Hugh,
You sure you played 4 games? Maybe you played 6 but didn't know it

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/10/2017 12:20 PM Israel Soccer 727 Maccabi Shearaim (ISR-L)/Maccabi Netanya (ISR-L)* Over 2½ -124
1/10/2017 12:30 PM France Soccer 401 Nancy (FRA-LigueCup)/Nantes (FRA-LigueCup)* Over ½,1 -126 for 1st Half

 

[hugh613]

Hugh,
You sure you played 4 games? Maybe you played 6 but didn't know it

That's nothing. Looks like he might have gifted himself a win on a game that wasn't even played yesterday (I'll have to double check)...

:chin:

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

Hugh, looking at those stats I seem to really like the Monaco Over 2.5 for big. Shouldn't this be higher. I know sometimes the better teams dont play their top lineup in these tournaments. How is Monacos lineup today?

 

[hugh613]

Hugh, looking at those stats I seem to really like the Monaco Over 2.5 for big. Shouldn't this be higher. I know sometimes the better teams dont play their top lineup in these tournaments. How is Monacos lineup today?

Lineups usually come out an hour before kickoff, so I'll let you know in 15 minutes GLB. And, yes, you are right in that it should probably be lined a little higher (opened at -145 and currently sits at -120 at 5Dimes), but I'd say a large part of that is just due to them not being quite as high scoring on the road as they have been at home.

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

Lineups usually come out an hour before kickoff, so I'll let you know in 15 minutes GLB.

Thanks bud.

 

[hugh613]

Thanks bud.

Nothing yet GLB, but I'll post it as soon as it comes up. Really weird when you look at the line movement though: up down, up down.

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/france/coupe-de-la-ligue/sochaux-monaco-pCrSjuAe/#over-under;2;2.50;0

Plus, to answer your earlier question, it also has a lot to do with Sochaux, since Ligue 2 is a very defensive minded league. That's the unfortunate part about soccer though - you can cap it for hours, but until they actually start playing, it's hard to know what kind of game you're in for. Kind of like expecting Atlanta / New Orleans to be a high scoring game, then they just decide to run the ball and play for field position, y'know...

Fútbol Total @FT_Total XI MÓNACO vs Sochaux: Subasic; A.Touré, Glik, Jemerson, Raggi; Lemar, Bakayoko, Moutinho, Jean; Carrillo, Germain. #CoupedelaLigue 21:00
<time class="dt-updated" datetime="2017-01-10T19:07:09+0000" pubdate="" title="Time posted: 10 Jan 2017, 19:07:09 (UTC)">2:07 PM - 10 Jan 2017</time>

 

[hugh613]

No Falcao (although I kind of expected that) but looks like their usual XI for the most part (especially up front). Maybe wait and see how the market reacts before placing a bet - just don't get too carried away. It's soccer - it might come down to a 'mystery time' goal...

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

Yeah Ive always known France Ligue 2 was very low scoring. And even Sochaux isn't allowing many goals in the league. I am not going to go too crazy and just normal. Miraculously got a push on the Under 2 in Nancy/Nantes.

 

[hugh613]

Yeah, don't get too crazy GLB. Plus, the under just got hammered at Pinnacle (over dropped from -117 to EV in the blink of an eye just now) - not a good sign, SMH...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/10/2017 2:45 PM England Soccer 507 Southport (ENG-Nat)/Barrow (ENG-Nat)* Over 3 +114

*Keep waiting for them to offer up 2.5,3 but doesn't look like that's going to happen, so might as well...

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

Staying away officially. Went from -126 to +105 on my book

 

[hugh613]

Staying away officially. Went from -126 to +105 on my book

Smart move on your part. Doesn't mean it can't still hit, but y'know...

:shake:

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

Late Monaco goal would have made this tense.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 29-26-7, -3.13

Wednesday:

1/11/2017 10:00 AM Cyprus Soccer 504 Ethnikos Achna (CYP-Cup)/Omonia Nicosia (CYP-Cup)* Over 3,3½ -130 *2 UNITS*

*Ethnikos and Omonia are pacing the Cypriot League in terms of goals per game this season (Ethnikos No.2 at 3.22, Omonia No.1. at 3.39). Five of Omonia's last six games have had 4 goals or more (the only under, of course, being the one time I bet them over last week), while four of Ethnikos' last five have had 4 goals or more (in the spirit of full disclosure, 3 of those overs were at home, but still). The only slight bug a boo is that Ethnikos haven't put up quite the numbers on the road as they have at home but, at the same time, not every team in Cyprus plays as wide open as Omonia does. Anyways, they played to a 3-2 Omonia win in Nicosia just last week, and four of the last five H2H have had at least three goals scored in them, so worse comes to worse I should at least be able to push on the 3. Unless of course it comes down to what GLB likes to call a 'mystery time' goal, in which case forget it. The next time I get a stoppage time goal in one of my games will be the first time in a long time...

p.s. Oh, wait, I forgot. I did have a stoppage time goal in one of my games yesterday. Hatta Dubai converted a PK at 90+4 to kill my Al Ain AH bet...

 

[captjohn67]

Best of luck Hugh :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 29-27-7, -5.73

Thursday:

1/12/2017 8:30 AM European Cup Soccer 610 Luzern (Friendly)/Wil (Friendly)* Over 3 -128 *2 UNITS*
1/12/2017 12:00 PM European Cup Soccer 625 Standard Liege (Friendly)/Borussia Dortmund (Friendly)* Over 3,3½ -120
1/12/2017 1:00 PM Spain Soccer 151 Valencia (ESP-Cup)/Celta Vigo (ESP-Cup)* Over 2½ -145

*If you came here looking for winners, let me tell you, you came to the wrong place... 0-5 my last 5, and pretty much everything I had circled yesterday but didn't play flopped as well (it happens, I guess...) Hopefully some better luck today. Might add a few more later on provided some of these friendlies get lined by 5Dimes (Club Brugge have split squad games coming up at noon, so depending on how the lineups are, might have action on both games).

Thanks capt.

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

VIGO GOAL ON LAST PLAY!

Free Kick from outside the box that was called with 8 secs left in mystery time.

 

[Capaholic]

I cannot express how big that goal was on my end.... :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 30-29-8, -7.89

Saturday:

1/14/2017 10:00 AM England Soccer 13 Arsenal (ENG-P)/Swansea (ENG-P)* Over 2½ -162
1/14/2017 10:00 AM Scotland Soccer 1907 Annan (SCO-2)/Elgin City (SCO-2)* Over 3 -137
1/14/2017 10:00 AM Scotland Soccer 1913 Stirling Albion (SCO-2)/Forfar (SCO-2)* Over 3 -133

*Still surprised Celta even bothered to take that free kick at the end of the their match the other day, considering all I watched them do for the last 10 minutes was pass the ball around. Nice to see a bunch of us managed to cash on it.

 

[captjohn67]

:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 32-30-8, -7.22

Adding:

1/14/2017 6:00 PM Mexico Soccer 401 Monarcas Morelia (MEX)/Queretaro (MEX)* Over 2½ -121 *2 UNITS*

Thanks capt.

 

[hugh613]

Red card, right on cue...

:hang:

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/14/2017 8:00 PM Mexico Soccer 404 Guadalaraja Chivas (MEX)/Monterrey (MEX)* Over 2½ -129
1/14/2017 8:00 PM Mexico Soccer 1554 Cimarrones de Sonora (MEX-2)/Cafetaleros de Tapachula (MEX-2)* Over 2½ -115
1/14/2017 8:00 PM Mexico Soccer 1557 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (MEX-2)/Club Celaya (MEX-2)* Over 2½ -106

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 34-32-8, -8.79

Monday:

1/16/2017 8:00 AM European Cup Soccer 1207 Fortuna Koln (Friendly)/Borussia Dortmund II (Friendly)* Over 3 -115
1/16/2017 8:30 AM European Cup Soccer 1210 Union Berlin (Friendly)/Wehen (Friendly)* Over 2½ -108

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

1/16/2017 10:00 AM European Cup Soccer 1219 Wurzburger Kickers (Friendly)/Vaduz (Friendly)* Over 2½,3 -108 *2 UNITS*

*Man, these friendlies are just killing me which, of course, explains why I'm betting yet another one...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 35-36-8, -11.10

Adding:

1/16/2017 2:00 PM Holland Soccer 701 NAC Breda (HOL-2)/Utrecht U23 (HOL-2)* Over 3,3½ -109
1/16/2017 2:00 PM Israel Soccer 804 Maccabi Tel Aviv (ISR)* -1½,-2 -107 vs Hapoel Tel Aviv (ISR)
1/16/2017 3:00 PM Portugal Soccer 102 Sporting Braga (POR)* -1,-1½ -119 vs Tondela (POR)

*Not even sure the last time my posted record was this bad (in soccer, that is - pretty much standard in every other sport these days).

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 36-38-8, -12.26

Tuesday:

1/17/2017 1:45 AM Australia Soccer 1501 Melbourne Victory (AUS-A)/Wellington Phoenix (AUS-A)* Over 2½,3 -135
1/17/2017 2:30 PM Belgium Soccer 501 Genk (BEL-Cup)/Oostende (BEL-Cup)* Over 2½,3 -114
1/17/2017 2:45 PM England Soccer 361 Weston Super Mare (ENG-Conf S)/Dartford (ENG-Conf S)* Over 2½,3 -129