January 2 2009 NBA

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
January 4 Play
Wash 1st H +5 -105- 3 units

Janurary 3 2009 play
Denver -4- 1.05 for .9545

jan 2
Boston -14.5- 1..05 to win .9545 W
Indiana ML +120- 1.82 for 2.184 W
GS ML +120- .91 for 1.092 L
New Orleans ML +105- 2.93 for 3.0765 W
1st H Toronto +2- 1.05 for .9545 W
1st H Indiana +1.5 -115- 2.15 for 1.8696 W
1st H New Orleans +.5 -105- 3.075 for 2.9286 W
Charlotte +7 -120- 1.1 for .9167 L
2nd H New Orleans -.5- 1.05 to win .9545 W
2nd H Utah +2.5- 2.125 to win 1.8893 W

11-2
+18.6035

I think every team is playing omg 15 games... gonna try to attack this card right now since I'm gonna be on a plane for most of the day so won't be able to do some stuff like injury stuff, likely gonna have to play the openers and hope for the best

IF ANYONE GETS INFORMATION ABOUT A TEAM'S FLIGHT PLANS PLEASE POST! (GO HOME FOR NEW YEARS?)

Houston at Toronto
1st game of the eastern road trip for Houston. 0-5 for Houston last 5 ATS. Got Atlanta 2m. Toronto stayin at home off 3 losses. I lean Toronto if J O'neal is in he can contain Yao. Tmac may not play as he's not gonna be playin b2bs and must choose between this game and atlanta. I'd guess he plays atlanta and sits this one out. Battier also out. Tmac out is huge as toronto struggles defending guards, and with Tmac out, no1 is there to exploit that.

Miami @ Orlando
Orlando off 3 game trip and go out to toronto after this one. Miami home to jersey after this. not much opinion on this one. Matchup wise, both teams offense flows into the other teams weakness on D. Miami cannot defend 2 bigs. SHard and dwight should feast. Haslem gonna have to chill outside with Shard and doubt joel can limit dwight. defending 2s is hard for orlando esp with no pietrus, so wade should be able to have his way against bogans/lee. Would lean Miami, but may give up late if it gets a bit out of hand with a game 2m. also maybe a bit of hangover off beating lebron. probably a pass for me

Washington @ Boston
interesting game. Boston off a loss which should be enough to back them in most spots. 1st game back from the road trip, and go back on the road after this one to no one else but New York- the team they love beating on. However, Wash is also the only team to beat them 3 times last season, and it showed that Boston wanted to send Wash a message last time they played.
-on the other side, Washington playin well covering 3 times in a row. playing cavs tough, beating houston, and covering to new orleans. Last game of a tough road trip, and gotta think they're happy to even had win one. They got a HUGE lookahead to cleveland at home.
-thus leaning to Boston to crush them, but the line will be huge, thinking 16/17? don't know how to play that- 1st H? eh will see, but think boston wants to sweep wash this season and wash will let them crush them to prep for cavs
 
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Indiana @ New York
If Indi loses this one, big bet on them on the 3rd vs Sac. Lean Indiana here. Coming in off 4 losses. DFon't liek the scheduling of off the home game and a very winnable game the next day at home to sac, but they should consider this a winnable, and thus a must win game for them. They've been competing, just losing at the end. Meanwhile, a play here would be a fade of NY. NY off a win with Boston coming to town next. very likely lookahead for them here.
“We’re going into the new year feeling good about ourselves,” said Al Harrington, who added 16 points and six rebounds in his second straight game coming off the bench. “We’re happy.”
similiar situation imo as a couple weeks back with NY feelin good bout themslves at hhome playin Milwaukee with Boston on deck- a game they lost by 30. Will be on Indiana probably

Atlanta @ New Jersey
I think you HAVE to take Atlanta. fuck trying to be cute like I've been in guessing when NJ gonna win at home. Am agraid of a lookahead for Lanta to home game vs elite Houston- as they always get up big for home games to the west. however, this is a revenge game for atlanta after losing both home n home games to jersey, and jersey in weird schedule of home-road-home-road alternation for a couple weeks now, as they go to miami after this game. Simple play for me: Fuck the nets on the road. They tired of New Jersey and Izod

... 5 down.. 10 to go
 
Chicago @ Cleveland
This one just looks like a blowout. Cavs off a loss, Chicago with no Deng. Gooden ius ?. only concern in cavs got wash in a bit, but doubt they lookahead as wash is their toilet paper. After this game, chicago would have changed venues in their last 14 games, and get a home win the next day to Minny to start a long home stand. I can see this one as a throw away for them

SAS @ Memphis
rematch from the 2OT game couple days back. SA off an ugly loss to milwaukee. Don't like laying the heavy road chalk unless its a special spot. don't really think SA is pissed off from the L. I guess gun-tohead memphis in the revnge spot, but dont see much either side to warrant a play

GS @ Minny
Minny probbaly still amazed at the Dallas debacle. I don't think I'd be able to play basketball after having that happen to me. GS off the loss to OKC, so like GS in this spot. There's been a lot of flying for GS lately if you look at their recent schedule, it is fuckin brutal. Lean GS, but may just sit out. This should be an ugly ass game
 
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my power ratings, do not take into acct recent injuries or diff situations, and is NOT what I expect from the line. WIll put couple thoughts on what I expect in parenthesis

Houston -2.5
Orlando -9.5
boston -15.5
new york -1.5
NJ pk (expect atlanta to be 2 pt faves)
cleveland -12
minny -2 (expect this to be around GS -1)
Detroit -11 (does not take into acct potential rip/sheed/dyce out)
SA -6.5
denver -7.5 (expect a bit more, maybe arnd 9)
Milwaukee -5 (expect a bit more consideirng they were -6 to detroit a couple games back, seems vegas is trying to make its money back off buck backers, say -7)
Dallas -10.5
Phoenix -10.5 (actually expect a little bit higher)
Portland -3
Lakers -7
 
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Sac @ Detroit
lot of ? here for this game. rip/sheed/dyce/hawes all ?. Detroit last home game before mini trip, while 1st game for trip for Sac. Sac off a win and played inspired from 1)getting squished by boston, 2) having kmart back. Sac possibly having a season turning incident with the blowout may be keeping me off detroit for this game, as detroit has jsut been playin wayy better than I expected. Rip out really helps as they get to go to a more traditional lineup and play AI ball which was better than the small ball whatever they were doin with Tay at 4. Kings also may lookahead to a winnable game at indi the next day to save energy if it gets out of hand
- likely no play for me

Denver at OKC
this one smells like a throw away game for denver and may go OKC 1st H/game- hoping for DD. Karl got win 900, and they fly to OKC to end their 4 game road trip before playin new orleans 2m at home. Do not like OKC off a W though. can easily see green containing melo and durant taking over. gotta get a 2nd opinion on this one

Charlotte @ Milwaukee
if this line is what I think it might be, I might have to take Charlotte. Milwaukee getting ridiculous lines, altho they do deserve them as they've been beasts ATS. 1st game of a home and home, and I can see both teams winning their home games. milwuakee probably feeling pretty good, winning at SA and playing Houston tough. may be getting ahead of themselves and think they can turn in marginal effort and in case of anything revenge the next day. just think the way they're pricing milwuakee, value will be there for charlotte

philly @ dallas
want to fade both teams. philly off their win and they know thatll be the only one of this road trip as they continue it here. Dallas off that big comeback and likely hangover. bleh no opinion, but gun to head dallas just in case they come out with prupose to avoid having to comeback, altho after doiing it so much hard to think they care

Clips @ Phoenix
yawn Clips struggling with no randolph and baron is hurt and just unsuccessfully playing thru it. Nash is ? but I [robbaly wont play this one. Phoenix does have a lot of rest after this game so I can see them going hard in the end for this one, so that probably pushes them over, but this game is hard for me to bet on just because the line will be DD. Phoenix should dominate because of the talent discrepencies, but don't see what their motivation to kill will be
 
Utah @ LAL
looks like boozer and millsap are out again. Same Jazz - kobe likely goes for 40 and jazzz get crushed. both teams on a lotta rest- lakers with more. eh likely a pass as I dont like to give sloan so many pts, but then again utah struggles on the road are amazing and have no PF

New Orleans @ Portland
finally a game that I like. Huge sandwich spot for Portland. Off beating their nemesis Boston and gotta fly out to LA for a rematch of the embarassment they received opening night. Roy is ? New Orleans starts a nasty road trip, just a nasty one, and will try to get off on the right foot with a W. Like first H NO and FG as they should try to put this one away early to possibly reserve energy for the next day. Just a mix of Portland's hangover and a lookahead for them, and I see this as a great spot for new orleans
 
In sum, supposing lines are where I think they'll be

games I'll likely play bigger: Indiana/1st H, Toronto, New Orleans/1st H
games I'll likely play smaller: Atlanta, Charlotte
games I'm considering: Boston, cleveland, GS, OKC
 
SF_capper said:
Miami @ Orlando
Orlando off 3 game trip and go out to toronto after this one. Miami home to jersey after this. not much opinion on this one. Matchup wise, both teams offense flows into the other teams weakness on D. Miami cannot defend 2 bigs. SHard and dwight should feast. Haslem gonna have to chill outside with Shard and doubt joel can limit dwight. defending 2s is hard for orlando esp with no pietrus, so wade should be able to have his way against bogans/lee. Would lean Miami, but may give up late if it gets a bit out of hand with a game 2m. also maybe a bit of hangover off beating lebron. probably a pass for me
Click to expand...

Been riding the Heat since they beat the Lakers and think that game was a turning point for the Heat. No surprise to see them overachieving now-I see no reason not to grab pts with them, as right now they may feel like they can conquer the world. Line has to be set higher due to the Magic's amazing home record & recent margin of victory, but I think the Heat stay up for this one....:shake:
 
Thought I should throw this one here:

After checking BC's thread about teams coming back from a road-trip, I noticed this:
Teams that loss their first game back from the road-trip are 3-12 ATS in the 2nd game. Now, Chicago and Toronto just came back from their road-trip and lost their 1st game. Tomorrow we have:
TOR vs HOU
CHI @CLE

I think you will at least split this one.
 
Zecco said:
Thought I should throw this one here:

After checking BC's thread about teams coming back from a road-trip, I noticed this:
Teams that loss their first game back from the road-trip are 3-12 ATS in the 2nd game. Now, Chicago and Toronto just came back from their road-trip and lost their 1st game. Tomorrow we have:
TOR vs HOU
CHI @CLE

I think you will at least split this one.
Click to expand...

Wow thanks man. Definitely something I'll consider if I bet. Don't want to go against that
 
ok of the lines out, the only real surprise is Dallas -7.5. I originally had dallas rated lower, but lately they have changed my mind on them, but I certainly figured -10.5 wouldnt be too much.
 
hmmm nm looks like I shouldn't be surprised.. recent lines, Philly @ Denver +6.5, @ utah +6.5, but Dallas was just -13 to Minnesota

I definitely wouldn't say Philly is -5.5 to Minny, but eh. I'll look more into this game, but as it stands despite a nice looking line, I still maty just lay off


on other side, fuck you linesmakers for hanging atlanta -3.5. wtf, they were just +1 at indiana. I'm starting to think books will be treating New Jersey lines at home as a homecourt disadvantage
 
hmm come to think baout it, how many refs are in the league? these games will need 45 refs, and I really didn't think the league had so many. I may be off completely wrong, but I'd imagine some games will have some rarely used refs- a situation where I think the ref assignments may be an interesting angle
 
Charlotte jumped out at me immediately. Good points on NO - I will have to check into that game. Miami and Utah also caught my eye - I know why those lines are where they are, but they just seem like a point or two too many. No way I could play Tor - just have no confidence in that team.
 
definitely rethinking toronto

Also, probably gonna stay off Atlanta. Now at -4, won't be surprised to see -5 with players getting on the fade jersey at home train too late. Huge diff bw fading them as a fave and home dog. Value is not there IMO and books gonna try to get their money back from izod
 
looks like it'll be:

Boston- 1 unit
Charlotte- 1 unit
GS ML- 1 unit
Toronto 1st H- 1 unit
Indiana 1st H- 2 units
Indiana ML- 2 units
New Orleans 1st H- 2 units
New Orleans ML/pts (depending on line, but likely ML)- 2 units

may upgrade New Orleans 1st H to 3, may upgrade GS ML to 2,
 
Always fun to read your thoughts. Didn't finish reading all the games, so will adress to some of the things. Cavs - Bulls game - what worries me is that Bulls come from very heavy home loss. I just don't see them after that bad of a loss, saying, fuck this game, let's get blown again, what do we care. They are young, ambitious team and will try to fight this one out, especially with Cavs lookahead. I do think that Cleveland are thinking about this game. Wizards came very close to beating them at Cleveland on Christmas eve and you know that the crowd in D.C. will tease LeBron every chance they got and he know is as well. No play for me here, but no doubt, if Cleveland comes to this game as if this is NBA Finals, they will cover, but see no reason why they will go the extra mile here and try to defeat the Bulls by DD.

Same thoughts on the Raptors so nothing to add there.

No play in NJ for me.

Butler should play today and if not the lookeahead on Cleveland, would be on the Wizards. Boston of a loss + the lookahead means no play for me.

Actually Wolves is my best bet on today's card. This is a great chance for them to win and Love + Jefferson are in great form and against small Warriors it should be a feast to them.

Will add if I have something smart to say when I will read the rest of your thoughts.

Best of luck and happy new year!
 
excellent thread sf...agree with your analysis on the pacers game and will likely play pacers and the maybe the over. lean toronto myself, but i actually like new jersey (because i'm sick i guess). will try to respond to a few that i'm interested in throughout the day...

think today might be a day full of unders. a lot of rest and some re-focus after the holidays.

fwiw, i don't see the cavs looking past the bulls at all, and i am considering laying the 12 points here. west and lebron have made comments about the team's lack of effort the last few games and the team has said they need to start a lot faster with a better defensive effort early. well, what better team to start fast and look good on defense against than the road bulls? i think the cavs get a big win here, and then i think they are ripe for the fading the next two games despite lebron's hate for wash and larry brown. they'll be thinking about boston from the fourth quarter of this game until next friday. i will have a huge play on them next friday after hopefully a couple of stinkers after this game.
 
Boston -14.5- 1..05 to win .9545
Indiana ML +120- 1.82 for 2.184
GS ML +120- 1.82 for 2.184
New Orleans ML +105- 1.95 for 2.0475
1st H Toronto +2- 1.05 for .9545
1st H Indiana +1.5 -115- 2.15 for 1.8696
1st H New Orleans +.5 -105- 2.05 for 1.9524
Charlotte +7 -120- 1.1 for .9167
 
hmm may add a unit down on Utah getting these DD

playoff revenge and wow -10?! lotta rest for LA before this game, but one angle, dunno how legit:
LA was likely partying thru new years getting laid/fucked up
Utah was probably just chillin
 
aww wtf. I cheked BM, and I thought I added 1 more unit on indi 1st H to make it 3 units, but looks like I only had 2 units... wtf
 
Thanks guys. Just one play today without much time to tAlk about it

Denver -4- 1.05 to win .9545

like the matchups, like that NO has LA up mext and already won yesterday's. Hate that Denver won on a buzzer beater yesterday.
 
cant get into writeups and new thread, but I'm gonna be 1 unit on Washington +pts, maybe 1st H after I look into a bit. Just revenge, and knowing wash will be rockin
 
Would say look at Wash ML if you like them. Rare to see consecutive ATS wins and SU losses in a Home and Home..
 
Only one bet, and gonna be out all day

Wash 1st H +5 -105- 3.075 for 2.9285

think the avs fuck with them for a half then erupt 4th Q
 
@SF:
tailed u also on wash, wonderful call:cheers: likewise the whole thread u got here ! Congrats keep up the good work !

@broadwayjoe:

I haven't seen the game, but do u think it's a question of focus only before the Boston game, or do u think the injuries of Iglauskas and Gibson( as well as maybe different combinations tried to replace him) are beggining to take their toll?
 
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