Jan 20 thoughts/plays

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Plays
Chicago -4.5 -105- 3 units L
Indiana +7.5 -105 2 units L
8 pt Teaser: Indiana +15.5, Denver -1.5, Utah -.5 -120- 2 units L
2nd H Indiana pk -105- 2 units L

day
0-4
-9.75

102-75
+34.1551


Atlanta at Chicago
Atlanta really banged up right now, yet got the W yesterday from everyone playing their hearts out and everyone worth playing played a lot yesterday: JJ-45, Bibby-43, smith-43. Williams and Hoford still out. Chicago- who I still believe is really really improved with all their players back- off 2 losses. Chicago also playin with double revenge with one loss- a forum bet on chicago- being when horford just dominated (won't be in) and the other was the shootout. Like Chicago, and find value in the line as I had it -4.5 (i made pretty large adjustments lately)

Indiana at San Antonio
This should be a fun one. The oldest team in the league on a 4/5 all with travel giving 7.5 to an improving- cover machine lately- a fast ball Indiana. Indiana always plays the elite teams tough. I am a bit worried Indiana may have an emotional let-down after the buzzer beaters, but I'll try to get my mind past that as SA also played a tight one yesterday. 4/5 is no joke for this team, and running with indiana will not help. Indiana has had trouble defending 4s/5s, so a little worried, but Duncan on a 4/5 probably is a little different. Also see value in this line as I had it SA -6

Sac @ Denver
Don't like Denver on b2b vs Sac with lots of rest, but denver has a lot of rest after this game. Sac with a very winnable game after this at home to Sac, so if it gets ugly earlyt, they may want to preserve energy for 2m and fold early. Denver off 2 losses, and I worry a little that they look ahead to all the rest after this game, but hopefully they think of it as a 'fight like there's no 2m' and go hard. I may put Denver in a teaser, and play them 4th Q

Minnesota @ Utah
Utah off a loss with some rest. Little concerned about a lookahead to Houston, but considering they own Houston, not worried too much. Minnesota has been playin real real well lately, and are 7-1 in 2009, but only 1-1 against teams over .500. Minny on a b2b, and I think are getting a bit too much respect. Looking at recent utah home games, they've been giving more to better teams. think it was: 9.5 to detroit? 11 to indiana? Therefore maybe an overadjustment for Minnesota. Millsap was back for the last game and should play here. may add utah in that teaser

so leans that I'll consider when looking at a bit more and when local's lines release: Atlanta, Indiana, Denver/Utah/Indiana teaser
 
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played what I said I would. Mad I could've gotten -3 with atlanta last night, but missed it and wento sleep. Think I'm done for the day
 
Glad too u like this 2 plays. Also Law and West are likely out for Atl thus they lack even more depth. Chi is on 5th in 7 and 6th in 9 but still think they will handle it and Atl with a pretty busy and grueling schedule too lately and undermanned. Any opinions on how Sa will unfold? Do u expect SA too take it easier in 1st half, 1st q and try to win later in the game or the other way ? Tx. Congrats on the impressive performance yesterday and hope u'll keep the same level today ! BOL!:cheers:
 
betman4ever said:
Glad too u like this 2 plays. Also Law and West are likely out for Atl thus they lack even more depth. Chi is on 5th in 7 and 6th in 9 but still think they will handle it and Atl with a pretty busy and grueling schedule too lately and undermanned. Any opinions on how Sa will unfold? Do u expect SA too take it easier in 1st half, 1st q and try to win later in the game or the other way ? Tx. Congrats on the impressive performance yesterday and hope u'll keep the same level today ! BOL!:cheers:
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I am undecided. From a trend standpoint, both are strong 1st q teams, sa tends to let teams back in the 2nd q and 3rd then play solid in the 4th- very typical of veteran good teams as they pretty much know they just preserve energy and keep it close then play d and clutch to get the w. Indiana has a habit of coming out hard 1st half then let teams get back in the 3rd and lose in the 4th usually from lack of defense. So from that standpoint I can understand a 1st h bet on Indiana, and 4th a bet on San antonio, but the situation is a little tricky IMO. Indiana may have a hangover off the buzzer beater last night and may come into the game in the 1st half kinda flat. Meanwhile, common sense says old ass San antonio on a 4/5 would find it hard to battle in the 4th q. That's why I'm staying off quarter bets, and just expecting a tight game through out. Gun to head, I could see a 1st h- 2nd half chase on indiana working, but I won't do it. Hope I helped, gl tonight
 
one of these days that i have more time i'd like to have a detailed discussion about toronto with you. you obviously think they have value at the moment, and i hate betting them with a passion and have done something i don't think i've ever done this early---write them off completely for the rest of the year. i'd like you to open my mind a little bit with this team. to me, they seem to lack cohesion, heart, the ability to close, predictability as to when they will play hard (good/bad spot situationally), any desire to play defense, and have major matchup problems with certain teams. to me they just seem very inconsistent and fickle. i know i'm being overly harsh, but i can't seem to open my mind up to them at all after some of the sickening performances i've watched---and i have a hard time ever thinking they're in a good spot to cash a ticket because while i know they are talented, that seems to be the least of their concerns. really like to get away from my bias here, and i have a lot of respect for you, and you seem to have them on your card quite a bit lately. and i know there are some toronto fans on here, and i mean no disrespect at all to your team---just my observations from the 8-10 games i've watched from them.
 
broadwayjoe said:
one of these days that i have more time i'd like to have a detailed discussion about toronto with you. you obviously think they have value at the moment, and i hate betting them with a passion and have done something i don't think i've ever done this early---write them off completely for the rest of the year. i'd like you to open my mind a little bit with this team. to me, they seem to lack cohesion, heart, the ability to close, predictability as to when they will play hard (good/bad spot situationally), any desire to play defense, and have major matchup problems with certain teams. to me they just seem very inconsistent and fickle. i know i'm being overly harsh, but i can't seem to open my mind up to them at all after some of the sickening performances i've watched---and i have a hard time ever thinking they're in a good spot to cash a ticket because while i know they are talented, that seems to be the least of their concerns. really like to get away from my bias here, and i have a lot of respect for you, and you seem to have them on your card quite a bit lately. and i know there are some toronto fans on here, and i mean no disrespect at all to your team---just my observations from the 8-10 games i've watched from them.
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I honestly don't watch much basketball on purpose. I've only seen 2/3 toronto games in full all yr, and don't base my betting on those watches. For me, watching games skew my judgement in betting. I can see how it helps others, but for me it just creates bias. Therefore, if I bet on a team it's rarely on matchups/talent, but more on situations/rest/perception.

I have been betting Toronto lately often because situations seem to go for it. lets see, the times I've bet toronto, which now that I look back has been pretty often:

12th- a simple back end of the home n home- half fade of boston/half bet on losing team in 1st game of home n home. this game went into OT, so not bad as it was a cover
14th vs chicago- wasn't much of a bet on toronto again- instead it was mostly a fade of chicago hoping they'd lookahead to cleveland. with toronto covering both vs Boston, I figured they'd been getting it together and were due for a W- I was wrong, and I knwo you had Chicago and hit
16th- faded them vs indiana- hit despite toronto showing serious fight and almost came back for the W. Was impressed that they did that
18th vs phoenix- simple fade of phoenix- my favorite team to fade as people still love them for all the offensive talent and highlights yet the worst team ATS this yr- pushed
19th at atlanta- didn't think atlanta was 7.5 pt faves to anyone

My point is that I'm not simply chasing a team that I like, but each bet was a good spot to take them imo. I think that they keep losing SU, just keeps creating value for them and perception on them keeps going down while their determination to get Ws will go up. Just looking solely at recent losses, they've been competing. Losing, but covering- which is imo the ideal capping spot- similiar to what OKC was doing earlier this yr which is why no1 here is really surprised by their success now, or Indiana's as another example.

I can;t say much about toronto as a team as I doubt I know even half of what others know. Apparently the loss of Jermaine o'neal/Calderon has helped create cohesion between the players. Bargnani/Bosh have supposedly paying well together, and AP has been running some point successfully. This again is a good spot for betting because on the surface- jermaine o'neal and calderon are out causing perception on them to go down a bit, but if it really helps the team, then its fine as we get shorter lines. Porbably will get better response on it later, but in general I've been betitng them because they are showing competitiveness despite losing which I like.

I think its hard to completely write off a team although I understand how you could. I think I have on the clippers until players return, and I've done the opposite on Boston/Orlando as they seem to just do well no matter the situation (boston more earlier this yr). I wouldn't recommend doing it for the rest of the yr for sure as things change, but I can see why you're down on them now. Eh maybe some toronto locals can put in some input on this one, as I don't thin kI've actually written anything an substance here, lol
 
no that was actually very helpful to understand where you're comin from and i thank you. might just be a team that i have better luck with fading rather than playing them, as i'm 1-5 betting on them and 4-0 betting against them...and obviously they have covered several times and will continue to cover i just have a tough time figuring out when and have had a little success fading them. i do like a team that i know is going to fight and while a lot of teams in this league are expected to give up in some spots they had a few really good spots they not only failed to cover-which i can take-but mailed it in, which i dont like to see at all in a spot that they shouldnt. but like i said im obviously biased because i let some of those early losses affect me and i will likely give them a few more shots throughout the season, but never confidently as im not confident they keep fighting for me. thanks again for the response; i agree with the o'neal comments and i wasnt implying at all that u were chasing or that u shouldnt have been betting that team--just figured id get a different perspective to help me out and i did. gl tonight...go bulls
 
Surprised you're not on the Wolves. Good spot for them. Little worried about the forum love for the Bulls, but hopefully you guys pull it out. BOL tonight.
 
JPicks said:
Surprised you're not on the Wolves. Good spot for them. Little worried about the forum love for the Bulls, but hopefully you guys pull it out. BOL tonight.
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nothing for you today? please elaborate on being a good spot for Minny? I can see the travel spot for Utah, 3 game road trip, home for 2 days then out to houston 2m with i guess revenge from the doub OT loss, altho I don't see that as a big game for them at all, and the 2 days of rest imo takes away the good spot to fade them. For minnesota, I see them on their last game of an already great road trip- on a b2b off getting their revenge from losing big to the clippers earlier this. I like that Utah is on 2 days rest and off the loss, and was actually leaning toward laying the points, but decided to just go with the teaser. I see that Minnesota may have this on their mind after Utah last beat them- a close one where Kevin Love lost it for them at the line, so don't think Minneosta considers this one a big revenge game or anything.

what am I missing? I know you know the Jazz way better than I do.
 
SF_capper said:
nothing for you today? please elaborate on being a good spot for Minny? I can see the travel spot for Utah, 3 game road trip, home for 2 days then out to houston 2m with i guess revenge from the doub OT loss, altho I don't see that as a big game for them at all, and the 2 days of rest imo takes away the good spot to fade them. For minnesota, I see them on their last game of an already great road trip- on a b2b off getting their revenge from losing big to the clippers earlier this. I like that Utah is on 2 days rest and off the loss, and was actually leaning toward laying the points, but decided to just go with the teaser. I see that Minnesota may have this on their mind after Utah last beat them- a close one where Kevin Love lost it for them at the line, so don't think Minneosta considers this one a big revenge game or anything.

what am I missing? I know you know the Jazz way better than I do.
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in a rush when I wrote that. not so much of a spot as I think the Wolves are playing VERY well right now especially on the road. They've won 5 of 6 SU and their last two road losses were by 7 @DAL and 6 @SAN. Jazz have only covered one line over 7 points since December. Just seems like the names of the teams here are producing the line more than the results. I'd write more but the game is about to tip. Jazz played @DAL, come home to play Minny only to fly back to Texas. This game could easily get lost in the shuffle. Think it'll be a close one.
 
JPicks said:
in a rush when I wrote that. not so much of a spot as I think the Wolves are playing VERY well right now especially on the road. They've won 5 of 6 SU and their last two road losses were by 7 @DAL and 6 @SAN. Jazz have only covered one line over 7 points since December. Just seems like the names of the teams here are producing the line more than the results. I'd write more but the game is about to tip. Jazz played @DAL, come home to play Minny only to fly back to Texas. This game could easily get lost in the shuffle. Think it'll be a close one.
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I'll take a Utah 2 pt win
:shake:
 
indy looks completely out of it

Duncan is destroyin them but then again they have no inside presence so no real shock

no energy and is there a worst PG then Ford?
 
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