Jan 19

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
ytd:
87-64
+23.0051

bleh. horrible horrible day yesterday. just goes to show: one bad call isn't bad as everyone is wrong, but that bad call added with stubbornness and horrible money management leads to the brokehouse. gonna try to build from that one

already played:
Philly -3.5 -105- 2 units L
1st Q New York -.5 -125- 1 unit W
1st H New York -1 -105- 1 unit W
1st Q Toronto +2.5 -115- 2 units W
Toronto +7.5 -105- 1 unit W
1st H Charlotte +3 -115- 1 unit L
Charlotte +5 -105- 2 units W
Houston -3 -105- 2 units L
1st Q Indiana +2 -115- 2 units W
1st H Indiana +4 -115- 2 units W
---+3.5 -105- 1 unit
Indiana +7 -115- 2 units W
Minnesota -5- 2 units W
Minnesota -6.5 -105- 2 units
in progress 2nd Q Detroit pk- 1 unit W
1st H Phoenix +5 -115- 2 units L
Warriors -4.5 -115- 2 units W
Portland -6 -105- 2 units W
1st H Lakers -2.5 -115- 2 units L
2nd Q Lakers -1.5 -115- 1 unit L
3rd Q Lakers -1.5 -115- 1 unit W
Lakers -4.5- 2 units W
---Lakers -5 (-105)- 2 units
2nd H Lakers -4 -205- 2 units W
IPL Lakers 3rd Q -2- 2 units W

day so far:
15-7
+20.9

updated ytd:
102-71
+43.9051

got a late start on the games, and thus got killed on these late lines. fuck me, but whatever.

Minnesota been really really improved lately, 2009. Foye's resurgence added with recent Al jerfferson's dominance. I don't bet against an injury to a team's best player as a policy, but against an average team's best 4 players? sure. I'm pretty sure Camby will miss, and if he doesn't eh. Jefferson should be able to beast it up, and doubt clips will mind. They finally got a W and have been leaning on the excuse of the injuries. With 3 big men out, they'll do it again. Bad line, but still like it

Lakers has been talked about. Pretty simple to me. No west, no Z, no W. Kobe and Lebron will go at it all night. Lakers off 2 losses, the recent one being where Kobe was NOT clutch. Can see that being changed tonight. Ariza- a great defender- will be on Lebron while Bron will have to use his energy on Kobe. Thus leaving Bron to work on both sides while letting Kobe rest for offense. No delonte, and this is not spoken of enough. Delonte is huge for them, and if Cavs aren't knockin down the 3s, they are absolutely fucked. Pau and Bynum should a good day inside, and may actually have the rebounding edge on Cavs.
 
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Lean to Philly just to ride the wave. They're playin well, and Dallas is not. Without Josh howard, Dallas is not even a playoff team imo. Dallas finally got a W, so not worried about desperation for them.

small lean chicago just to fade NY as chalk and with Phoenix comin. Chicago been playin real well with kirk and deng back- having your team captains back on the floor will do that

like the spot for Atlanta, hate the lineup. Williams is ? and Hordford out. I can't bet on them without them, but I like that perception on them is down off the road trip. Finally home where they don't lose. Toronto on b2b from toronto, tough game yesterday. Josh smith can ;limit bosh, while no1 can stay with the guards for Atlanta.
 
not sure if SA brings full effort here. They did get the W, but agree with others, this team isn't the same as before. Charlotte meanwhile continues being clutch. Can see myself betting either side, and probably will read some SA papers. If SA wants to go 2-1 this road trip, or more importantly avoid 1-2 eastern road trip (if that makes sense) they probably can. Maybe just a pass for me

Denver at Houston
Can't put my finger on really why but just lean Houston. Denver off a loss where they were pretty upset about everything, and while I am impressed with what they've been doing with Chauncey, as I look at their past schedule, I am not that impressed by them. I see 1 impressive road win- at Boston. Thats it all yr. Houston did beat them earlier this yr so that could be a factor. However, flying from Denver to Houston just for a one day morning stop to come back home the next day is a decently bad spot for denver.

Indiana at New Orleans
gonna be on Indiana 1st H. They are a 1st H team and giving them 4/4.5 poitns for a first half is a lot. New Orleans off the W, while Indiana has been playin real well with Dunleavy back for them.
 
as far as the Spurs are concerned I loved them at first glance, but starting to think it might be the biggest "trap" game of the day. I mean who doesn't love the Spurs at 3.5 over Charlotte? Spurs probably win by 2.

same thoughts on houston. home dominated series last two years and how does denver hold down ming? houston or pass

love the pacers, but i do wish that they had daniels.
 
detroit at Memphis
I think detroit breaks out of their losing streak here in style. I hate laying square road chalk, so hopefully people get off the detroit chase train, and this is memphis afterall, who see to be playing like absolute shit lately with Mayo not playing 100%. Penindg line, I'm thinking I lay off, but I still really think Detroit breaks out of losing streak here

Phoenix at boston
phoenix on 4/5, boston maybe broke out of their funk? Perkins I believe is out and Shaq is in leaving scal to defend Shaq :) I am a bit worried that boston is hungry to get back in the standings lead, and goes on a big run. However, not much to support that thought other than my bias that Boston can be the best. With such a big mismatch of scal on shaq, I have trouble beliving boston will be able to blow out. gonna look at some more, as I'm kinda drainged right now

milwaukee
last game of semi-road trip, and their win-loss continued. I don't want to bet against milwaukee's win-loss phenomenon. Portland off semi succesful road trip, back home off the loss. bogut still out which will probably hurt with the rebounding of Portland. WOuld lean portland, but can milwaukee do anything two times str8?

really burned out right now, but so far played minnesota and LA at shit numbers that both probably go down
gonna be on indiana 1st H and considering: Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Philly and charlotte
 
Minn game very unlikely to go down. Clippers at home on Monday. Let me make it simple. They have lost and failed to cover 10 straight and are 6-14 over all. Last win early 2007. They were barely pretending to be respectable with Camby playing like Superman. Just hard for them to play now.
 
tuck321 said:
Minn game very unlikely to go down. Clippers at home on Monday. Let me make it simple. They have lost and failed to cover 10 straight and are 6-14 over all. Last win early 2007. They were barely pretending to be respectable with Camby playing like Superman. Just hard for them to play now.
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you play it especially big? I feel dirty laying 5 with mInnesota on the road, but dam the clips are depleted
 
It was a 2 unit play. Would have been higher but hate to cooperate with a line move and I knew that line was going to move. Could be wrong but think they just slipped up and put out a bad line.
 
as I typically do after bad days, will probably flat bet 2m. 2 units a flat bet. yes it seems odd that my flat bet is 2 units, but I think of it as my max is 3 units, normal is 2, and small is 1. much less confusing than .5, 1, and 1.5 units. Thus I guess my ytd is articially high in +units, but whatever.
Gonna play Indi 1st H, Atlanta, Houston, New York (JP/tuck convinced me), Charlotte 1st H
 
I been on Wolves on every game the last months (since and including the win on the Knicks), but to lay 5 points on the road?! I rather take the bet on Portland winning it's case against Memphis for playing Miles.... best of luck there, but good health!

Can't argue Lakers, but prefer to take X2 units on Lakers ML than lay a line, after so many close games that Lakers provided recently.

Pistons should win over Memphis, especially as I told you, fading Mayo and Carter and their injuries and so far it proves me right (it will end sometimes, hopefully not tonight).

I don't know why play the game in Portland tonight. Can't Nate just declare he will go inside on every attack and ask for the 2 points to be added? Why play the game itself and risk injuries. If Bucks win this game, my hat is off to them, but it will be just crazy, just as their 14 games of W - L.

Love the Raptors today, would like to read your thoughts on that.

Best of luck!
 
divol said:
I been on Wolves on every game the last months (since and including the win on the Knicks), but to lay 5 points on the road?! I rather take the bet on Portland winning it's case against Memphis for playing Miles.... best of luck there, but good health!

Can't argue Lakers, but prefer to take X2 units on Lakers ML than lay a line, after so many close games that Lakers provided recently.

Pistons should win over Memphis, especially as I told you, fading Mayo and Carter and their injuries and so far it proves me right (it will end sometimes, hopefully not tonight).

I don't know why play the game in Portland tonight. Can't Nate just declare he will go inside on every attack and ask for the 2 points to be added? Why play the game itself and risk injuries. If Bucks win this game, my hat is off to them, but it will be just crazy, just as their 14 games of W - L.

Love the Raptors today, would like to read your thoughts on that.

Best of luck!
Click to expand...

liked it at 5.5, not playin it now at 7. Atlanta is a solid home team, which seems to have been forgotten on ther bad road trip. I doubt they lose this game, but I'm not gonna bet on them -7 without marvin williams/horford. They should be determined off that ugly road trip to get back to winning games they can have, toronto on a b2b off falling short at phoenix. the play was more of a situational bet than how they've been playing lately. I may end up even taking toronto now as this line is getting too high to ask a depleted atlanta team to cover on an improving toronto team. In fact... past 12 games, toronto has only lost by over 7 once- a 10 pt loss to milwaukee. Last 12 games representing when oneal got hurt and bargnani started getting run
 
If it goes to 7.5 will buy back the other way for part of the bet. Still last 20 on the road 14 losses all by 6 or more.
 
just played New york 1st H and Q. love the 1st Q, but at -125 I'm ok and hope the 1st Q will carry over for my 1st H bet to come in
 
JPicks said:
nice hit with the knicks. gotta love thomas
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almost make sup for philly game. Andre iguodala hits a alleyoop 3 pter at the buzzer down 1 to moose my NY +1 1st H. heh, won't forget that one in awhile, but happy now.

interesting lineup for NY
Nate robinson, Tim Thomas, Gallinari, Harrington, Lee
arguably 4 PF
 
just added char 1st H and Toronto +7.5 for aunit apiece. Don't want to go 2 since I already have 2 unit bets on those games
 
I respect all of your opinions but I dont see how Hou keeps the off pace with Denver...If Yao doesnt go for 40+, just dont see Houston keeping pace unless Denver doesnt show.
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
I respect all of your opinions but I dont see how Hou keeps the off pace with Denver...If Yao doesnt go for 40+, just dont see Houston keeping pace unless Denver doesnt show.
Click to expand...

this is just a bet by me on a disresoect of sorts on Denver and maybe a hangover off the emotional loss to orlando. SOmetimes we want to put denver in the upper tier since billups seems to have turned this squad around, but other than AI and billups, this is the same squad as last yr- the team with problems and attitudes (JR smith, kmart, melo, birdman). I could be wrong, but we'll see. Houston finally got the needed rest, and I think will go on a decent run even without their wing stars. Also, not too great a spot for Denver, middle of a long home stand, have to interrupt it for a morning game in houston then go back home after this for sac game 2m. Not too strong a bet, but enough for me to put a normal bet. Good health man
 
wasn't sure if I would, but I'm doin it. Played warriors for 2 units. big revenge game for us as we were absolutely smoked at washington ealier this yr. Jackson should be able to defend jamison/butler whoever is it he's assigned to. I can see the wiz getting into early ffoul trouble and often. Biedrins should have a nice day inside. I'm biased

fuck buzzer beater in dallas
 
wow at phoenix. took LA 2nd and 3rd Qs. Think its close 1st Q with bron playin 12 and workin hard. then think once bron sits LA makes a run and Cleveland's 3rd Q problems arise without coaching
 
Man, I want to play the Lake Show so bad but they just haven't been playin very good basketball lately.
 
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