Jan 17 NBA

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Plays:
New Jersey +7- 2 units L
Denver -1 (-105)- 3 units L
1st H Denver -.5 (-105)- 3 units W
Houston -3.5 (-105)- 2 units W
1st H Houston -2 (-105)- 3 units W
New Orleans -2.5 (-105)- 2 units W
Milwaukee -3 (-105)- 2 units L
San Antonio -3.5 (-105)- 2 units W
1st Q San Antonio -1 -115- 1 unit W
1st H San Antonio -1.5 -115- 1 unit L
1st Q New York +.5 -105- 1 unit L
1st H New York +1 -105- 2 units L
2nd H Milwaukee 2 units- L

day:
6-7
-.8 units

decent day yesterday. Would've loved Kobe to make the open 3 for the tie, but eh. he's clutch when I fade him, cold when I bet him. Fuck Kobe.
OKC and Minnesota really impressing me lately.

POwer ratings show:
boston -7
Portland -1.5
New Orleans pk
San ANtonio pk
Houston -5.5
Denver pk
Dallas -1.5
Milwaukee -3.5
 
Last edited:
ALready played Jersey and thought it would go down, but now I doubt it. I know Jersey has a better record on the road, but only a 3 pt move from 10 to 7 from Boston to Jersey, esp considering Jersey lost the 1st one. Hopefully playing Jersey at home doesn't fuck me again, but just think after getting blown out, Jersey brings a maximum effort here. May play 1st H as well.

No real thought about this Portland/Charlotte game. I guess a bit of value in Charlotte ML when people pound Portland, since Portland will be satisfied with a 2-2 road trip. Despite being wrong last time out, still don't think Bayless will be enough to carry this team at point into road wins. Likely won't play it unless this line shoots up

New Orleans @ Detroit: detroit in a serious funk right now, I think losing 5 straight? I was hoping New Orleans would get the W to take Detroit but they too got beat bad, and Byron Scott gave his little speech about his players not trying again. Just that in itself is making me change positions on this game and think New Orleans takes it, although I HATE laying small chalk on the road with every other person in the world. help?
 
Philly at New York and San Antonio @ Chicago
Fuck me 8 times, but I think I'm going to fade the hot Sixers again, and take the fuckin Spurs AGAIN. I don't hate money, and it's really frustrating to me, but I think the spots warrant it. Philly, although used to winning, is not used to doing so over San Antonio. Meanwhile, NY got blown out by Philly for their 1st loss of the yr and is off a loss to the wizards. Philly's winning may start getting to their head for a day as they are also looking at Dallas on Monday. So leave home to face the Knicks who they beat up on earlier this yr, only to come home right after to get prepped for Dallas. This spot just screams flat. For SA @ Chicago, yes I know CHicago's players are back and I bet hthem over Cleveland and think they'll be a bit under the radar for a couple weeks as thier struggles were attributed to their captain not on the floor. However, reading papers in SA and quotes seems liek a spot SA comes out fired up. off getting blown out by philly (nice call others) nothing like a cure but to get back on the winning track. I don't like laying road chalk with the rest of the world, which I did yesterday and lost, but this looks like the spot. CHicago should have a hangover off the big W. Chicago will struggle against bigger teams with a low post threat which is what SA is all about. Fuck me but I think I'll do both
 
May go with Houston/Houston 1st H. Houston finally gets some rest which is really needed for them. Beasley will be useless in this game being forced to defend, and again no one on Miami will be able to stop a big man. This line is shit low, and yes I know Houston is without Tmac/ARtest and I don't care. Battier will be able to limit Wade lightly below average and the rest will rely on Houston fighting off a loss. Yao needs the rest. Miami right now 3-2 on their road trip, and with a game at OKC coming after this are probably thinking they have a winning road trip all but in the bag. Think this one is a Houston blowout
 
OMG I'm so scared to bet against Orlando. I've now bet against them 3 straight games and we know how that's gone. Man I don't want to do it, but te spot again may force me to do it. I love teams on b2bs ending their road trip in Denver. Orlando has had a great road trip, and head home after this game. Billups OWNS jameer and has done so in the playoffs for years now. Just don't see where Orlando's motivation will come from- they just swpt SA series, beat the Lakers on ESPN, and head home with some rest and boston- the team that they beat earlier. If your mind isn't on in Denver, running up and down becomes real hard. May painfully play Denver
 
and for the last game, I'm gonna be a square again and lean the popular road chalk. Milwaukee has been alternating win/lose, win/lose, and they are sick of it. Do I dare fade this trend? I normally wouldn't but its the clippers. I'm done trying to guess when they'll get it together. Fact is, this team without Baron/Randolph/Kaman have probably the least talent in the league and with baron coming back soon our chances to fade them are diminishing. With a spread of -3, we could win the game and lsoe the cover, but I'm not overly concerned. I know tuck thinks this team has talent, but I just don't see it. They have neither talent or the necessary cohesion that a winning team needs. Mardy COllins/Eric Gordon/Al Thornton/Skinner, Camby may be the worst starting 5 in the NBA right now. When their all-stars return I'll change that statement, and I know how as cappers we try to find the good in bad teams and the bad in good teams to make money, but this team doesn't have the good. Yes they might win, but it's not something I want my money on. I read a quote somewhere: "losing in an very clever way is still losing" or something like that, wehich I consider especially true in capping. Yes, there may be some gleam of talent/ something that we see in a bad team, and we may be right, but if we bet them and lose, then we're wrong- simple. This may be square thinking, but its right.
sorry for the little rant, just me pissed off at myself for having bet some shit teams/faded teams I knew were underrated in trying to be cute
 
Didn't finish reading, but about the first two games you mentioned:
NJ - Well I said a few weeks a go that Nets will come back to being a normal team, winning home games and losing road games and more or less this is what we can see right now. My problem both with NJ and Memphis is that they got their star players playing, but injured, so it doesn't effect the line, but it does effect their level of playing (Carter and Mayo). I been fading both teams lately or DNB, till they can show they overcame their injury, so be careful there.

About Pistons - 3 from 8 from the line they were (maybe even finished that way) against the Thunders. Rip is just a cancer on this team right now, would trade him to the Lakers for some of their cheerleaders, just to get rid of him and allow Iverson and Stucky to play 30 minutes together. Still, they can't lose forever. If Hornets would have won, Pistons should have been a great bet, but still, Scott can't say the say dumb speech every time and the team would suddenly start playing.
 
One interesting detail I noticed, in seven previous times, the teams that won the Lakers, 5 of them lost the next game. The only two that won were Heat winning on a road the Nets and Orlando itself, but it's hard to lose to injured GSW at home (played without most of their players).
Both teams that won in Staples Center, got beaten the game after - Detroit in Phoenix and Hornets in Utah.
 
SF_capper said:
OMG I'm so scared to bet against Orlando. I've now bet against them 3 straight games and we know how that's gone. Man I don't want to do it, but te spot again may force me to do it. I love teams on b2bs ending their road trip in Denver. Orlando has had a great road trip, and head home after this game. Billups OWNS jameer and has done so in the playoffs for years now. Just don't see where Orlando's motivation will come from- they just swpt SA series, beat the Lakers on ESPN, and head home with some rest and boston- the team that they beat earlier. If your mind isn't on in Denver, running up and down becomes real hard. May painfully play Denver
Click to expand...

You have to pull the trigger for a unit on this one I think. Exactly what Killa said in the discussion. I've had this game mapped out for months now and I refuse to let a very hot Orlando team stop it. The is obviously wrong for a reason. And when I say wrong I mean there is no way the Nuggets should be laying points against the magic.
 
SF_capper said:
ALready played Jersey and thought it would go down, but now I doubt it. I know Jersey has a better record on the road, but only a 3 pt move from 10 to 7 from Boston to Jersey, esp considering Jersey lost the 1st one. Hopefully playing Jersey at home doesn't fuck me again, but just think after getting blown out, Jersey brings a maximum effort here. May play 1st H as well.

No real thought about this Portland/Charlotte game. I guess a bit of value in Charlotte ML when people pound Portland, since Portland will be satisfied with a 2-2 road trip. Despite being wrong last time out, still don't think Bayless will be enough to carry this team at point into road wins. Likely won't play it unless this line shoots up

New Orleans @ Detroit: detroit in a serious funk right now, I think losing 5 straight? I was hoping New Orleans would get the W to take Detroit but they too got beat bad, and Byron Scott gave his little speech about his players not trying again. Just that in itself is making me change positions on this game and think New Orleans takes it, although I HATE laying small chalk on the road with every other person in the world. help?
Click to expand...

Its funny but I feel a trade may be imminent, Byrons gotta be tired of having to pump these guys up day in and day out. Either that or he has got to get Julian Wright back on the court, I dont care if he doesnt know the offense like Scott wants him to but he brings energy and thats what we need.
 
JPicks said:
You have to pull the trigger for a unit on this one I think. Exactly what Killa said in the discussion. I've had this game mapped out for months now and I refuse to let a very hot Orlando team stop it. The is obviously wrong for a reason. And when I say wrong I mean there is no way the Nuggets should be laying points against the magic.
Click to expand...
this is certainly one you close your eyes and just turn away after placing it in.
 
divol said:
Didn't finish reading, but about the first two games you mentioned:
NJ - Well I said a few weeks a go that Nets will come back to being a normal team, winning home games and losing road games and more or less this is what we can see right now. My problem both with NJ and Memphis is that they got their star players playing, but injured, so it doesn't effect the line, but it does effect their level of playing (Carter and Mayo). I been fading both teams lately or DNB, till they can show they overcame their injury, so be careful there.

About Pistons - 3 from 8 from the line they were (maybe even finished that way) against the Thunders. Rip is just a cancer on this team right now, would trade him to the Lakers for some of their cheerleaders, just to get rid of him and allow Iverson and Stucky to play 30 minutes together. Still, they can't lose forever. If Hornets would have won, Pistons should have been a great bet, but still, Scott can't say the say dumb speech every time and the team would suddenly start playing.
Click to expand...

I don't think its him specifically, but more the lineup. he's not a 3 and tayshaun is not a 4. With that lineup they can't rebound/cant defend
 
can't argue with the 3 plays so far, and will be on at least two of them in the nets and nuggs. i think the spurs likely dominate this game...this is a matchup nightmare for the bulls and coming off two straight wins while the spurs got their asses kicked. i'd much rather play the spurs than the knicks, but just me. sixers have been known to streak ats that's for sure. new orleans also looks pretty good imo, i think as a dog they are just a bad bet (without even looking at the way they've performed ats as a dog) because when the going gets tough they just seem to crumble this year--heartless. it's the only way i'd play that game as well, but i'm staying away. i will likely be on charlotte and i didn't even research that clippers game nor do i want to even try to guess what happens there. gl sf
 
BOL today SF, tend to lean the opposite on the Nets despite the fact they just played the C's and probably would like revenge. Celtics were in a long funk but it seems they have success vs the Nets
 
wow fuck fuck fuck. Ny up 2 with secs left, Philly hits a 3 lose my 1st q +.5 by half point, so then up 1 in the 2nd wit 8 secs left ai hits a fadeaway 3 at the buzzer and mega nooses my ny +1 1st h. Fuck my day
 
ytd:
87-61
+30.5551

eh lost .8 unit today. COnsidering I got moosed big time by the alleyoop buzzer beater 3 that gave me a 4.2 units swing, and I got stupid with 2nd H Milwaukee I'll take it knowing I capped the games alright. Orlando is sick, New Jersey is pathetic, Miami isn't good, philly's 3pt percetnage shoots to 85% facing a buzzer, milwaukee will win-lose until further notice, and umm yea
 
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