Jan 16 NBA

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
77-52
+26.8551

Plays:
Indiana -4.5- 2 units W
Cleveland -3- 2 units W
Milwaukee pk- 2 units W
Milwaukee pk (-105)- 1 unit
(so total 3 units)
2nd H Minnesota +4 (-115)- 2 units W
Lakers -4 (-115)- 2 units L
San Antonio -2.5- 2 units L

day
4-2
+4.5

updated ytd:
81-54
+31.3551

my power ratings for today (havnt taken into acct recent injuries)
San Antonio -2
Indiana -6
Washington -4
Utah -5
Detroit -5
Cleveland -7
Phoenix -10.5
Milwaukee -1
LA -2.5
Atlanta -1.5

late start for me today and just starting to get into the games. Early interests are: San Antonio, Indiana, Washington, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Lakers
 
Last edited:
^yeah i'm leaning kings, so i'm interested in this as well

also spurs. otherwise, we're on the same page...which i like
 
well I havnt done nearly enough looking into these games but extremely briefly:

like Wash basically just as a trend of teams splitting home and homes ATS. I doubt NY can sweep a team 4-0 this yr for the season series

San Antonio- don't like that they're off that exciting W, or that Philly has been unreal lately loking like the streaking team of last yr. However, Brand back tonight- ?- may ruin their cohesion. Also, SA ALWAYS seems to get it going on their rodeo trip which kinda begins today with a long stretch of dominantly road games.

Indiana- mostly because I am really high on this team. nothing specifically about this spot, which is why I may not take it, but this team at home is gonna be tough for any team this yr. A little revenge as well from earlier loss this yr.

Cleveland- I hate to see Delonte went down as he's so underrated, but the line is low and Bron is off a loss with revenge. New Orleans beat them earlier this yr, and posey limited bron. Gotta think Lebron comes out possessed as he called yesterday's game his worst all season, and he probably really dislikes Posey.

Milwaukee- think the win-loss continues here and don't see a reason why not. Sac may still be tired from triple OT, and hung over from the W in which they made just every clutch 3 possible.

Lakers- simple to me. LA off a loss, revenge against Orlando. Orlando high off unbelievable 3 pt shooting, not just 1 game but for awhile. I could be playing with fire in fading Orlando, but kinda think setting an NBA record can be marked as the pinnacle of their successful 3 pt shooting, and the law of averages will come into play. Orlando cannot defend 2 guards, so hi kobe. Lakers have the size at 3/4 to defend Shard/Hedo (ariza/odom) and bynum should at least keep dwight to his average.
 
reNew Orleans said:
damn cavs -7? why so high on the projection. Z is injured dont think any Cavs got hurt yesterday either.
Click to expand...

The thing is, they were -4.5 against Boston a couple weeks back also with no Z. the -7 does not take into acct west out yet since they havnt played enough games for me to truly see the effect and possiby downgrade them. I currently (not taking into acct west injury) have Cleveland as the number 1 team in the league, and it seems only injuries will slow them down
 
San Antonio- don't like that they're off that exciting W, or that Philly has been unreal lately loking like the streaking team of last yr. However, Brand back tonight- ?- may ruin their cohesion. Also, SA ALWAYS seems to get it going on their rodeo trip which kinda begins today with a long stretch of dominantly road games.


from what i've read, if brand does come back tonight it will be for very low minutes so to not disrupt cohesion. i keep waiting for the spurs to come around, and i'm tired of waiting. with a few exceptions, this team has not looked good this year and i think i'm ready to officially downgrade them.
 
SF_capper said:
The thing is, they were -4.5 against Boston a couple weeks back also with no Z. the -7 does not take into acct west out yet since they havnt played enough games for me to truly see the effect and possiby downgrade them. I currently (not taking into acct west injury) have Cleveland as the number 1 team in the league, and it seems only injuries will slow them down
Click to expand...


whoa! that is a change, correct? i thought a few weeks ago you had said that boston was about 4 pts better than the cavs ( think it was you )...
 
broadwayjoe said:
San Antonio- don't like that they're off that exciting W, or that Philly has been unreal lately loking like the streaking team of last yr. However, Brand back tonight- ?- may ruin their cohesion. Also, SA ALWAYS seems to get it going on their rodeo trip which kinda begins today with a long stretch of dominantly road games.


from what i've read, if brand does come back tonight it will be for very low minutes so to not disrupt cohesion. i keep waiting for the spurs to come around, and i'm tired of waiting. with a few exceptions, this team has not looked good this year and i think i'm ready to officially downgrade them.
Click to expand...

I feel you on that, but I'm not quite ready. It seems every yr, SA is always questioned- they're too old, their D isnt what it used to, their offense is not consistent enough, etc. it seems like every yr. Even this yr, quietly they're 2nd in the west, with wins at dallas, at phoenix, at denver, vs houston and utah, and now over LA. each game they win seems to have a little asterick with a negative on it (LA and phoenix- "needed" a buzzer beater, Dallas needed doub OT, etc.), but if we start giving astericks for their losses, I think it evens out (TP and Ginobli missing early action, Orlando shooting lights out, all teams bring their best against SA). It seems SA usualy treads water, makes a considerably good run in their roadie (considerably since it is a tough road trip and most teams would be lucky to go .500) then turn it up in the playoffs (surprsing everyone with a W over New Orleans). I may be completely wrong, but I can't write SA off, and it'll take me a lot more for me to do so
 
i'm hearing ya, and just 2 short weeks ago i would have agreed that i think they turn it around, but 5-9-1 ATS last 15??? give me a fuckin break. i could care less how many good wins they have if they aren't covering for me. like you mentioned as a sixers backer i like the fact they won that lakers game, and i love the way the sixers have picked it up. also, spurs are 2-7 ATS their last 9 trips to philly, 2-6 SU and they're 1-5-1 last 7 games overall against them, and they're usually not one of these teams that is tough to read---usually they're pretty consistent in who they play well and who they play poorly against---but this year has been a little different because they're less consistent and more sporadic imo.

i'm not writing them off completely (like the raptors, for instance), but have downgraded them from where i had them even a couple of weeks ago
 
broadwayjoe said:
whoa! that is a change, correct? i thought a few weeks ago you had said that boston was about 4 pts better than the cavs ( think it was you )...
Click to expand...

I know on the 9th when they played, I made the line like Cleveland -1.5 and had Boston two points better than cleveland. I was wrong and got burned. At that point, I was still a little late in downgrading Boston and was making excuses for their losses, but realized I was just being biased from getting burned by them earlier this yr. I think at that point I had Boston as 94 with cleveland as 92, and now I have cleveland as 93.5 with boston as 93 putting cleveland as the best team in the league.

However, this is just based on current play- as I adjust my rankings like every 2/3 days slightly if I see it necessary. I still think Boston will get it back together and soon and be the champs this yr. I think boston is the least flawed team in the league as opposed to the best. LA has their problem of lack of D, strong dropoff on the road, coasting thru many games, seeming lack of intensity for most games, and more- those were just off the top of my head. cleveland and Boston are the best at rebounding and both seem to bring intensity and all effort for most games, but cleveland has so many more flaws imo that in the end will prevent them from being the best (letting teams hang in the 1st H to let bron get his ESPN in the 4th Q, their 4th Qtr offense is give the ball to bron at half court and let him go, Brown has the best player alive and can only come up with an iso to get him the ball, they have essentially 3 PGs yet are still only 10th in the league in fast break points, and more)

But yea, as it stands right now my ratings have the cavs as number 1 in the league mostly because of their rebounding, defense, lebron, mo will/delonte being somewhat able to create for themselves, and lebron.
 
looks like it'll be flatbetting for me today at 2 units a piece. my varying units have been unstable past week, so gonna try to flat for a little bit
 
wow I'm mad I missed out on NY 2nd H. Was getting the equivalent to +10 with the knicks against fuckin washington but couldnt get it in
 
broadwayjoe said:
San Antonio- don't like that they're off that exciting W, or that Philly has been unreal lately loking like the streaking team of last yr. However, Brand back tonight- ?- may ruin their cohesion. Also, SA ALWAYS seems to get it going on their rodeo trip which kinda begins today with a long stretch of dominantly road games.


from what i've read, if brand does come back tonight it will be for very low minutes so to not disrupt cohesion. i keep waiting for the spurs to come around, and i'm tired of waiting. with a few exceptions, this team has not looked good this year and i think i'm ready to officially downgrade them.
Click to expand...

right now down 19 in the 4th. DUnno if I wana put an asterick for SA with possible hangover effect, but looks like you got this one. fuckin spurs
 
chalk2_list_view.jpg


Just playing man. Card looks good, but was a bit surprised to see you on the Spurs. That was the first line that I saw that looked suspicious. Just diving into the last three for the night. BOL with the Bucks and those damn pacers holding on.
 
JPicks said:
chalk2_list_view.jpg


Just playing man. Card looks good, but was a bit surprised to see you on the Spurs. That was the first line that I saw that looked suspicious. Just diving into the last three for the night. BOL with the Bucks and those damn pacers holding on.
Click to expand...

Pacers :hang:
 
Man I want to play GS, but they get distracted so easily and I can easily see a hangover from the loss to Sac. I may even still add another unit on Milwaukee just because I'd imagine Sacramento feels the same
 
added a couple:
Milwaukee pk (-105)- 1 unit
(so total 3 units)
2nd H Minnesota +4 (-115)- 2 units
Lakers -4 (-115)- 2 units
 
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