Jaguars vs. Titans Week 14 Betting Preview: Trevor Lawrence to Lead Jaguars Past Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Tennessee
Jacksonville's Secondary Problems
I want to point out Jacksonville's defensive weaknesses in order to explain that Tennessee lacks the personnel on offense to exploit them.
The Jaguars lack a second quality cornerback.
Tyson Campbell has been good but Shaq Griffin turned out to be a dud and is anyhow injured.
After Campbell, there is a significant drop-off in terms of quality.
Jacksonville's weakness in the secondary is also evident in the extent to which higher-quality wide receivers have thrived when facing the Jaguars.
Colt Michael Pittman and, most recently, Lion Amon-Ra St. Brown both enjoyed dominant performances to help their respective team achieve a high-scoring output against the Jaguars.
How Titan Wide Receivers Stack Up
When the Jaguars allowed 34 points to Indianapolis and 40 points to Detroit, they faced a wide receiver who ranked top-10 in the NFL in reception.
Tennessee's number one wide receiver, though, is Treylon Burks, and he ranks 124th in receptions.
While he's spent time injured, he is also currently injured.
He's listed as 'questionable' for this game as he goes through concussion protocols.
After Burks, Tennessee's wide receiver crew is filled with low-profile guys plus Robert Woods, who has been largely unsuccessful after his first season back from tearing his ACL last year.
So, not only do the Titans lack a top-10 wide receiver, which the teams that hurt Jacksonville the most possessed, but they lack the depth at wide receiver with which to punish Jacksonville for lacking good cornerbacks after Campbell.
Tyson Campbell
Even if Burks were a healthy, top-level wide receiver, Campbell would still lower the damage that he would inflict.
Campbell was largely not responsible for the productivity achieved by opposing top wide receivers.
The stats and metrics prove this point: he has not allowed more than 52 yards in a game so far.
This season, he ranks a highly impressive 12thin yards per target allowed.
With Campbell healthy, Jacksonville's secondary is in great shape for this game.
Lack of Pass Rush
The other primary weakness on this Jaguar defense that opposing offenses look to exploit is its lack of pass rush.
Jacksonville has momentarily promising but often disappointing young defensive ends while the interior pass rush has been awful.
Tennessee, though, has one of the NFL's worst pass-blocking units.
Left tackle Dennis Daley, for example, has allowed the most sacks this year.
He is tied with a Bengal for the honor, but he has suffered this high sack total in 205 fewer pass snaps.
Overall, the Titans rank 29that limiting the opponent's sack rate.
While the Jaguars might not get more than a couple sacks, Tennessee lacks the personnel to exploit Jacksonville's absent pass rush by giving quarterback Ryan Tannehill much time to throw.
Tennessee's Overall Offensive Outlook
The Titans lack a dangerous pass attack with which to deter defenses from devoting extra attention to star running back Derrick Henry.
Tennessee's offensive one-dimensionality and its offensive line issues are responsible for Henry's mediocre 4.2 YPC average.
Jacksonville's run defense is a strength of its team. The Jags rank seventh at limiting the opposing YPC average.
With the Titans lacking weapons, support for their existing weapons, and versatility on offense, they rank 26thin averaging 18.3 points per game.
This fact makes it impossible to like them to cover the spread when they are the favored team because a bettor must want the favored team to be good enough on offense to score easily enough to cover the spread.
Depending on Trevor Lawrence
I think the Jaguars will be one-dimensional on offense, but this won't hurt them in the least.
For example, when they scored 28 points in their upset win over Baltimore, starting running back Travis Etienne managed all of three rushing yards.
Etienne has been a great source of offense for the Jags, which is why they dealt away James Robinson, but Etienne is not necessary for a high Jacksonville scoring output.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Titan Pass Defense
Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a dynamite matchup this week against Tennessee's young and problematic secondary.
It helps that, especially with Denico Autry injured, the Titan pass rush's success rate has plummeted in recent weeks.
Lawrence will enjoy plenty of time to throw and to find his wide receivers, a prideful bunch that is coming off an usually awful, drop-heavy performance in Detroit.
Zay Jones had his best game of the season two weeks ago against Baltimore -- he amassed 145 receiving yards.
Mentally, he struggled to live up to that performance in Detroit.
He's ready to bounce back, though. Also expect a lot from Christian Kirk, who's been great for Jacksonville as he approaches 1,000 yards receiving.
Against low-ranked pass defenses, such as Vegas' and Baltimore's, Lawrence carried his team to solid scoring outputs and victories. Lawrence is primed to do the same against Tennessee's 31st-ranked pass defense.
The Verdict
Tennessee and Jacksonville will be confined to having one-dimensional offenses.
One-dimensionality is just fine for the Jaguars, though, with their highly competent pass attack going up against Tennessee's awful pass defense.
With Jacksonville scoring more easily while the Titans fail to exploit Jacksonville's defensive weaknesses or to do what they like to do most on offense, you should invest in the underdog for this game.
I recommend investing a standard unit in the underdog and investing extra if Burks can't play.
Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Tennessee
Jacksonville's Secondary Problems
I want to point out Jacksonville's defensive weaknesses in order to explain that Tennessee lacks the personnel on offense to exploit them.
The Jaguars lack a second quality cornerback.
Tyson Campbell has been good but Shaq Griffin turned out to be a dud and is anyhow injured.
After Campbell, there is a significant drop-off in terms of quality.
Jacksonville's weakness in the secondary is also evident in the extent to which higher-quality wide receivers have thrived when facing the Jaguars.
Colt Michael Pittman and, most recently, Lion Amon-Ra St. Brown both enjoyed dominant performances to help their respective team achieve a high-scoring output against the Jaguars.
How Titan Wide Receivers Stack Up
When the Jaguars allowed 34 points to Indianapolis and 40 points to Detroit, they faced a wide receiver who ranked top-10 in the NFL in reception.
Tennessee's number one wide receiver, though, is Treylon Burks, and he ranks 124th in receptions.
While he's spent time injured, he is also currently injured.
He's listed as 'questionable' for this game as he goes through concussion protocols.
After Burks, Tennessee's wide receiver crew is filled with low-profile guys plus Robert Woods, who has been largely unsuccessful after his first season back from tearing his ACL last year.
So, not only do the Titans lack a top-10 wide receiver, which the teams that hurt Jacksonville the most possessed, but they lack the depth at wide receiver with which to punish Jacksonville for lacking good cornerbacks after Campbell.
Tyson Campbell
Even if Burks were a healthy, top-level wide receiver, Campbell would still lower the damage that he would inflict.
Campbell was largely not responsible for the productivity achieved by opposing top wide receivers.
The stats and metrics prove this point: he has not allowed more than 52 yards in a game so far.
This season, he ranks a highly impressive 12thin yards per target allowed.
With Campbell healthy, Jacksonville's secondary is in great shape for this game.
Lack of Pass Rush
The other primary weakness on this Jaguar defense that opposing offenses look to exploit is its lack of pass rush.
Jacksonville has momentarily promising but often disappointing young defensive ends while the interior pass rush has been awful.
Tennessee, though, has one of the NFL's worst pass-blocking units.
Left tackle Dennis Daley, for example, has allowed the most sacks this year.
He is tied with a Bengal for the honor, but he has suffered this high sack total in 205 fewer pass snaps.
Overall, the Titans rank 29that limiting the opponent's sack rate.
While the Jaguars might not get more than a couple sacks, Tennessee lacks the personnel to exploit Jacksonville's absent pass rush by giving quarterback Ryan Tannehill much time to throw.
Tennessee's Overall Offensive Outlook
The Titans lack a dangerous pass attack with which to deter defenses from devoting extra attention to star running back Derrick Henry.
Tennessee's offensive one-dimensionality and its offensive line issues are responsible for Henry's mediocre 4.2 YPC average.
Jacksonville's run defense is a strength of its team. The Jags rank seventh at limiting the opposing YPC average.
With the Titans lacking weapons, support for their existing weapons, and versatility on offense, they rank 26thin averaging 18.3 points per game.
This fact makes it impossible to like them to cover the spread when they are the favored team because a bettor must want the favored team to be good enough on offense to score easily enough to cover the spread.
Depending on Trevor Lawrence
I think the Jaguars will be one-dimensional on offense, but this won't hurt them in the least.
For example, when they scored 28 points in their upset win over Baltimore, starting running back Travis Etienne managed all of three rushing yards.
Etienne has been a great source of offense for the Jags, which is why they dealt away James Robinson, but Etienne is not necessary for a high Jacksonville scoring output.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Titan Pass Defense
Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a dynamite matchup this week against Tennessee's young and problematic secondary.
It helps that, especially with Denico Autry injured, the Titan pass rush's success rate has plummeted in recent weeks.
Lawrence will enjoy plenty of time to throw and to find his wide receivers, a prideful bunch that is coming off an usually awful, drop-heavy performance in Detroit.
Zay Jones had his best game of the season two weeks ago against Baltimore -- he amassed 145 receiving yards.
Mentally, he struggled to live up to that performance in Detroit.
He's ready to bounce back, though. Also expect a lot from Christian Kirk, who's been great for Jacksonville as he approaches 1,000 yards receiving.
Against low-ranked pass defenses, such as Vegas' and Baltimore's, Lawrence carried his team to solid scoring outputs and victories. Lawrence is primed to do the same against Tennessee's 31st-ranked pass defense.
The Verdict
Tennessee and Jacksonville will be confined to having one-dimensional offenses.
One-dimensionality is just fine for the Jaguars, though, with their highly competent pass attack going up against Tennessee's awful pass defense.
With Jacksonville scoring more easily while the Titans fail to exploit Jacksonville's defensive weaknesses or to do what they like to do most on offense, you should invest in the underdog for this game.
I recommend investing a standard unit in the underdog and investing extra if Burks can't play.
Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 at -107 with BetOnline
