Hello friends, :cheers3:here is my preview of the Jags/Texans game. :boxing: Feel free to enjoy and discuss! :tiphat:
Expect a Close Game Between Defensively-Minded Jaguars and Texans
The Division Rivals Jaguars and Texans open up their season this Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Texans have been bet up to 5.5 point favorites while the total has dropped from 42 to 39.
Blake Bortles beat out Chad Henne for the starting quarterback job in Jacksonville. Bortles’ job is by no means secure and he will face a lot of pressure both from his coaching staff and last year’s top-ranked pass defense, which will also feature a healthy JJ Watt. In the preseason against Tampa Bay, Bortles was atrocious. He was missing wide receivers left and right. His throwing mechanics were compared to those of a baseball pitcher. But against Carolina he was 12-16 for 125 yards and new head coach Doug Marrone commented on his vast mechanical improvement. Bortles threw for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2015, but was awful in 2016 until Marrone replaced Gus Bradley as head coach. Bortles will enjoy the protection of an underrated and improved offensive line, that gave up 17 fewer sacks last season, and a respectable wide receiving crew.
The most significant offensive feature for the Jaguars is at running back. Running the ball will not just help to take the pressure off of Bortles but will also compose the Jaguars’ offensive identity.
First round draft pick Leonard Fournette will be healthy and make his regular season debut as part of a triad of running backs, with TJ Yeldon and Chris Ivory. He can only help a rushing attack that was unimpressive last season. Defenders were able to stack the box because they knew that Bortles couldn’t present much of a threat. But running against the Texans will not come easy, who feature a solid duo at linebacker in Brian Cushing and Benardrick Mckinney, who had a huge second year with 129 tackles (the 11th most last season) and 5 sacks. Behind those two linebackers, as is the case throughout the Texans’ roster, depth is an issue.
Bortles’ 2-20 su road record is disconcerting. He hasn’t figured out how to win on the road, especially against good teams. But, under Bortles, the Jaguars are a respectable 8-7-1 ATS in the last 2 seasons on the road. Bortles’ career quarterback rating is also almost 10 points higher on the road. The Jaguars' performance on offense is very dependent on Bortles. The numbers of the Jaguars' wide receivers plummeted last season and the offensive line took the heat for the lack of rushing attack. But the talent is there. So is the identity. Bortles is looking more like his 2015 self. He seems to thrive under the pressure of playing on the road and being in a quarterback competition. And he can take advantage of a pass defense whose lockdown cornerback AJ Buoye is now with the Jaguars.
AJ Buoye is a shutdown cornerback who, when thrown at last season, allowed a passer rating of under 60. He will steel a secondary that thrived against the lower-iter passing attacks. The pass defense struggled against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Marcus Mariota. But against the likes of Brian Hoyer and Brock Osweiler, they allowed very limited damage. I would put Tom Savage into the latter category. Savage, with his 0 career touchdowns in 2 starts, inspires little danger in the opposing pass defense, even though he has a star at wide receiver in the speedy and long-armed Deandre Hopkins. The Texans’ lack of a passing attack explains why they were in the bottom 5 with just over 17 points per game last season. And yet the Texans haven’t done anything to improve in this regard—at least until rookie Deshaun Watson eventually becomes the starter.
The Texans’ rush attack was a respectable eighth, even though their anemic pass offense could not take much pressure off of the running backs. The Texans’ run game relies above all on their work horse Lamar Miller. But without help from their passing attack he ran the ball 22 times for only 63 yards last December against the Jaguars. Even with question marks in the offensive line, the improvement of the Jaguars’ defensive line with the signing of Calais Campbell from Arizona, and the the lack of depth behind him, Miller will be Houston’s most potent weapon on offense. The Jaguars’ defense also has the most uncertainty in the linebacker position. Paul Posluszny was going to move to outside linebacker because of his declining speed and lack of reliability in pass plays in the middle of the field. Myles Jack was going to replace him because of his superior athleticism. But it turns out that Jack does not possess the reaction speed or football IQ for the middle. He should do well on the outside because of his speed, run-stopping skills and pass-coverage ability. He will also complement Telvin Smith especially in coverage packages, where Posluszny would be a liability. Miller can exploit Posluszny’s weakness in open-field tackling, but won’t be a game-changer against a Jaguars’ defense that was 6th last season in total yards allowed.
The Verdict
I can’t trust the Texans to cover the 5.5 spread because I can’t trust them to score—especially against a high-ranked defense. The Jaguars have an improved defensive line with Campbell and Dante Fowler Jr., who finished 2016 on a strong note and will show this year why he was a first round pick in 2015. The sideline-to-sideline animal Myles Jack at linebacker and the well-sized and long-armed Jalen Ramsey at corner are two other rising second-year superstars who will be exciting to watch against a Texans’ offense that lacks a passing attack and the kind of depth at running back that the Jaguars enjoy. The Jaguars, under a head coach with a solid history for turning losers into winners and with a passing attack that has meaningful upside, should be optimistic in 2017 and will challenge last year’s AFC South Champions. A low-scoring game seems like the obvious prediction. But the total has already dropped a few points, so I will take advantage of the spread movement.
NFL Pick: Jaguars +5.5
Expect a Close Game Between Defensively-Minded Jaguars and Texans
The Division Rivals Jaguars and Texans open up their season this Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Texans have been bet up to 5.5 point favorites while the total has dropped from 42 to 39.
Blake Bortles beat out Chad Henne for the starting quarterback job in Jacksonville. Bortles’ job is by no means secure and he will face a lot of pressure both from his coaching staff and last year’s top-ranked pass defense, which will also feature a healthy JJ Watt. In the preseason against Tampa Bay, Bortles was atrocious. He was missing wide receivers left and right. His throwing mechanics were compared to those of a baseball pitcher. But against Carolina he was 12-16 for 125 yards and new head coach Doug Marrone commented on his vast mechanical improvement. Bortles threw for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2015, but was awful in 2016 until Marrone replaced Gus Bradley as head coach. Bortles will enjoy the protection of an underrated and improved offensive line, that gave up 17 fewer sacks last season, and a respectable wide receiving crew.
The most significant offensive feature for the Jaguars is at running back. Running the ball will not just help to take the pressure off of Bortles but will also compose the Jaguars’ offensive identity.
First round draft pick Leonard Fournette will be healthy and make his regular season debut as part of a triad of running backs, with TJ Yeldon and Chris Ivory. He can only help a rushing attack that was unimpressive last season. Defenders were able to stack the box because they knew that Bortles couldn’t present much of a threat. But running against the Texans will not come easy, who feature a solid duo at linebacker in Brian Cushing and Benardrick Mckinney, who had a huge second year with 129 tackles (the 11th most last season) and 5 sacks. Behind those two linebackers, as is the case throughout the Texans’ roster, depth is an issue.
Bortles’ 2-20 su road record is disconcerting. He hasn’t figured out how to win on the road, especially against good teams. But, under Bortles, the Jaguars are a respectable 8-7-1 ATS in the last 2 seasons on the road. Bortles’ career quarterback rating is also almost 10 points higher on the road. The Jaguars' performance on offense is very dependent on Bortles. The numbers of the Jaguars' wide receivers plummeted last season and the offensive line took the heat for the lack of rushing attack. But the talent is there. So is the identity. Bortles is looking more like his 2015 self. He seems to thrive under the pressure of playing on the road and being in a quarterback competition. And he can take advantage of a pass defense whose lockdown cornerback AJ Buoye is now with the Jaguars.
AJ Buoye is a shutdown cornerback who, when thrown at last season, allowed a passer rating of under 60. He will steel a secondary that thrived against the lower-iter passing attacks. The pass defense struggled against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Marcus Mariota. But against the likes of Brian Hoyer and Brock Osweiler, they allowed very limited damage. I would put Tom Savage into the latter category. Savage, with his 0 career touchdowns in 2 starts, inspires little danger in the opposing pass defense, even though he has a star at wide receiver in the speedy and long-armed Deandre Hopkins. The Texans’ lack of a passing attack explains why they were in the bottom 5 with just over 17 points per game last season. And yet the Texans haven’t done anything to improve in this regard—at least until rookie Deshaun Watson eventually becomes the starter.
The Texans’ rush attack was a respectable eighth, even though their anemic pass offense could not take much pressure off of the running backs. The Texans’ run game relies above all on their work horse Lamar Miller. But without help from their passing attack he ran the ball 22 times for only 63 yards last December against the Jaguars. Even with question marks in the offensive line, the improvement of the Jaguars’ defensive line with the signing of Calais Campbell from Arizona, and the the lack of depth behind him, Miller will be Houston’s most potent weapon on offense. The Jaguars’ defense also has the most uncertainty in the linebacker position. Paul Posluszny was going to move to outside linebacker because of his declining speed and lack of reliability in pass plays in the middle of the field. Myles Jack was going to replace him because of his superior athleticism. But it turns out that Jack does not possess the reaction speed or football IQ for the middle. He should do well on the outside because of his speed, run-stopping skills and pass-coverage ability. He will also complement Telvin Smith especially in coverage packages, where Posluszny would be a liability. Miller can exploit Posluszny’s weakness in open-field tackling, but won’t be a game-changer against a Jaguars’ defense that was 6th last season in total yards allowed.
The Verdict
I can’t trust the Texans to cover the 5.5 spread because I can’t trust them to score—especially against a high-ranked defense. The Jaguars have an improved defensive line with Campbell and Dante Fowler Jr., who finished 2016 on a strong note and will show this year why he was a first round pick in 2015. The sideline-to-sideline animal Myles Jack at linebacker and the well-sized and long-armed Jalen Ramsey at corner are two other rising second-year superstars who will be exciting to watch against a Texans’ offense that lacks a passing attack and the kind of depth at running back that the Jaguars enjoy. The Jaguars, under a head coach with a solid history for turning losers into winners and with a passing attack that has meaningful upside, should be optimistic in 2017 and will challenge last year’s AFC South Champions. A low-scoring game seems like the obvious prediction. But the total has already dropped a few points, so I will take advantage of the spread movement.
NFL Pick: Jaguars +5.5
