Jaguars vs. Texans NFL Week 17 Betting Preview: Houston to Continue Owning Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Best Bet: Texans +4 at -107 with BetOnline
Key Trends: Houston Owns Jacksonville
Houston has Jacksonville's number.
As the Colts experience annually in Jacksonville, it is hard to overcome a team's tendency to lose to a certain other team.
The team trying to overcome its tendency to lose to that certain other team will find ways to lose because that certain other team will be in its head.
Houston is in Jacksonville's head.
We obviously can't look inside Jaguar players' heads in order to prove this, but we can see that the Jaguars perform worse against the Texans than they do against other teams
Consider the Jaguar offense.
This season, the Jaguars faced two defenses that rank in the top-three in total defense.
Against those teams, the Jets and Eagles, the Jaguars scored more than three times as many points than they did against Houston.
Houston's 13-6 victory over Jacksonville was its ninth straight win over the Jaguars.
The Texans have also covered three straight against Jacksonville and five straight when dogged against Jacksonville.
Second Key Trend
One speaks of Jacksonville ascending -- the Jaguars were fortunate to accumulate turnovers against the falling Titans and against a Dallas team looking ahead to Philadelphia before they got to face another falling team in the Jets who were quarterbacked by the terrible Zach Wilson.
Houston is ascending, though, in terms of its ATS record, and I find this markedly more impressive. Houston enjoys a 3-0 ATS run.
This streak is impressive because, in addition to nearly beating Dallas and beating Tennessee, the Texans took mighty Kansas City to overtime.
Pass Defense
Houston's streak of ATS success is especially relevant to this game because of its means of success.
The Texans have relied especially on their pass defense.
While the NFL's best quarterback still had a good game against them -- although Houston almost won, anyways -- Cowboy Dak Prescott had one of his worst games of the season, in terms of passer rating, against the Texans.
Most recently, Houston shut down Titan quarterback Malik Willis.
Shutting down Willis is not impressive, but the Houston pass defense's season-long success is.
To be exact, the Texans rank eighth at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Texan Cornerbacks
Houston has proven to be deep at cornerback even though, like Jacksonville, it misses an injured cornerback whom it wishes it could rely on.
At cornerback, the Texans now rely especially on Steven Nelson and Desmond King.
Impressively, Nelson is yielding an 80.3 passer rating when targeted.
King is yielding an 88.3 passer rating when targeted.
Both have impressive track records.
Nelson, for example, locked down Amari Cooper, holding him to 15 receiving yards on two receptions out of six targets.
As for King, he has allowed fewer than 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games.
Houston's cornerback group is thus well-equipped to limit a top-heavy Jaguar wide receiver group that relies extensively on Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, both of whom have about twice as many receptions as any other Jaguar wide receiver.
When they struggle against Houston cornerbacks, the entire Jaguar wide receiver group will look completely impotent as quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggles to find any receiver to rely on.
The Importance of Houston's Pass Defense
It is critical to assess the quality of Houston's pass defense because Jacksonville's offense lives and dies with Lawrence.
To explain, the Jaguars have scored 22 points or fewer eight times.
Lawrence's passer rating was under 87 in seven of those games.
Conversely, the Jaguars have scored over 22 points seven times.
In every one of those games, Lawrence achieved a passer rating of 109 or higher.
Trevor Lawrence Info
While Lawrence has been performing well lately, he's also faced low-ranking pass defenses and defenses, like Dallas', with beleaguered cornerback groups.
In his most recent game, his passer rating was a paltry 86.6 as he focused on getting the ball out quickly and simply dumping it into the flats because he lacked the confidence to challenge the Jets' excellent cornerbacks.
Lawrence has, throughout the season, struggled against the NFL's better pass defenses, including Detroit's markedly improved pass defense, the Jets, the Eagles, and so forth.
Houston's pass defense, which is regularly good at limiting the opposing quarterback's passer rating and which held Lawrence to his second-worst passer rating this season, features another good secondary against which Lawrence will struggle.
The Verdict
This will be a grueling game in which both offenses struggle to score -- missing a key wide receiver and running back and limited by mediocre quarterback play, Houston regularly struggles to reach 20 points without turnover help.
The key here is that Jacksonville lacks the offensive pieces to cover the spread, while, for all his shortcomings, Texan quarterback Davis Mills' career passer rating is 23 points higher at home and his top wide receiver is back in action.
For the above reasons, invest in the "under" in addition to the Texans ATS.
Best Bet: Under 43 at -106 with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Best Bet: Texans +4 at -107 with BetOnline
Key Trends: Houston Owns Jacksonville
Houston has Jacksonville's number.
As the Colts experience annually in Jacksonville, it is hard to overcome a team's tendency to lose to a certain other team.
The team trying to overcome its tendency to lose to that certain other team will find ways to lose because that certain other team will be in its head.
Houston is in Jacksonville's head.
We obviously can't look inside Jaguar players' heads in order to prove this, but we can see that the Jaguars perform worse against the Texans than they do against other teams
Consider the Jaguar offense.
This season, the Jaguars faced two defenses that rank in the top-three in total defense.
Against those teams, the Jets and Eagles, the Jaguars scored more than three times as many points than they did against Houston.
Houston's 13-6 victory over Jacksonville was its ninth straight win over the Jaguars.
The Texans have also covered three straight against Jacksonville and five straight when dogged against Jacksonville.
Second Key Trend
One speaks of Jacksonville ascending -- the Jaguars were fortunate to accumulate turnovers against the falling Titans and against a Dallas team looking ahead to Philadelphia before they got to face another falling team in the Jets who were quarterbacked by the terrible Zach Wilson.
Houston is ascending, though, in terms of its ATS record, and I find this markedly more impressive. Houston enjoys a 3-0 ATS run.
This streak is impressive because, in addition to nearly beating Dallas and beating Tennessee, the Texans took mighty Kansas City to overtime.
Pass Defense
Houston's streak of ATS success is especially relevant to this game because of its means of success.
The Texans have relied especially on their pass defense.
While the NFL's best quarterback still had a good game against them -- although Houston almost won, anyways -- Cowboy Dak Prescott had one of his worst games of the season, in terms of passer rating, against the Texans.
Most recently, Houston shut down Titan quarterback Malik Willis.
Shutting down Willis is not impressive, but the Houston pass defense's season-long success is.
To be exact, the Texans rank eighth at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Texan Cornerbacks
Houston has proven to be deep at cornerback even though, like Jacksonville, it misses an injured cornerback whom it wishes it could rely on.
At cornerback, the Texans now rely especially on Steven Nelson and Desmond King.
Impressively, Nelson is yielding an 80.3 passer rating when targeted.
King is yielding an 88.3 passer rating when targeted.
Both have impressive track records.
Nelson, for example, locked down Amari Cooper, holding him to 15 receiving yards on two receptions out of six targets.
As for King, he has allowed fewer than 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games.
Houston's cornerback group is thus well-equipped to limit a top-heavy Jaguar wide receiver group that relies extensively on Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, both of whom have about twice as many receptions as any other Jaguar wide receiver.
When they struggle against Houston cornerbacks, the entire Jaguar wide receiver group will look completely impotent as quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggles to find any receiver to rely on.
The Importance of Houston's Pass Defense
It is critical to assess the quality of Houston's pass defense because Jacksonville's offense lives and dies with Lawrence.
To explain, the Jaguars have scored 22 points or fewer eight times.
Lawrence's passer rating was under 87 in seven of those games.
Conversely, the Jaguars have scored over 22 points seven times.
In every one of those games, Lawrence achieved a passer rating of 109 or higher.
Trevor Lawrence Info
While Lawrence has been performing well lately, he's also faced low-ranking pass defenses and defenses, like Dallas', with beleaguered cornerback groups.
In his most recent game, his passer rating was a paltry 86.6 as he focused on getting the ball out quickly and simply dumping it into the flats because he lacked the confidence to challenge the Jets' excellent cornerbacks.
Lawrence has, throughout the season, struggled against the NFL's better pass defenses, including Detroit's markedly improved pass defense, the Jets, the Eagles, and so forth.
Houston's pass defense, which is regularly good at limiting the opposing quarterback's passer rating and which held Lawrence to his second-worst passer rating this season, features another good secondary against which Lawrence will struggle.
The Verdict
This will be a grueling game in which both offenses struggle to score -- missing a key wide receiver and running back and limited by mediocre quarterback play, Houston regularly struggles to reach 20 points without turnover help.
The key here is that Jacksonville lacks the offensive pieces to cover the spread, while, for all his shortcomings, Texan quarterback Davis Mills' career passer rating is 23 points higher at home and his top wide receiver is back in action.
For the above reasons, invest in the "under" in addition to the Texans ATS.
Best Bet: Under 43 at -106 with BetOnline
