Texans vs Jaguars: Week 9 NFL Picks and Game Predictions
Houston vs Jacksonville
Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 9:30 a.m. ET in Wembley Stadium
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Houston as the favorite by as many as three points. The line has moved slightly in Jacksonville’s favor as the Texans are currently favored by as low as one point.
In this match-up, Jacksonville is regarded as the home team, and rightly so, although this game takes place in London.
Preparation is crucial in football and the Jaguars know how to prepare themselves for London because they play there every year. It’s not uncommon to find teams unprepared for the toll that the long travel takes on their bodies. A recent example is Chicago, which fell behind 17-0 to Oakland before getting upset by the Raiders in London.
Houston plays in London for the first time ever, meaning that it doesn’t benefit from Jacksonville’s travel experience. The Texans are already making one mistake by leaving Thursday evening, which doesn't give their bodies enough time to adapt to the change in time zone.
Still, it’s best to cap the game because this game will be decided on the field and not on the airplane.
What Kind Of Impact Can Deshaun Watson Make?
With a starting running back that averages only 4.2 YPC, it’s clear that the key for Houston’s offensive success lies in its passing game.
At times, Watson will struggle to make plays behind an offensive line that ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate allowed. This ranking actually represents a huge improvement from last year. But Houston’s pass protection is still meager, especially considering how many would-be sacks the mobile Watson has evaded.
Jacksonville boasts a unique trio of pass rushers in rookie Josh Allen, Yannick Ngakoue, and Calais Campbell. They’ve combined for 15.5 sacks so far with Ngakoue becoming a more consistent presence behind the line of scrimmage after injuries slowed him down at the start of the season. The rookie has also become more consistent as he’s gotten a sack in four straight games.
The speed and athleticism especially of Allen and the multiple angles that Jacksonville’s edge rushers come from amount to significant pressure for opposing quarterbacks, who are often forced into poor decisions if they can even stay upright.
Overall, Jacksonville ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate and is built to make Watson uncomfortable.
Without Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville’s secondary will need help from its pass rush. Texan receiver DeAndre Hopkins is privately rejoicing that he won’t have to go up against the very physical Ramsey who can lock down any wide receiver in press man coverage.
While Hopkins will face off with A.J. Buoye instead of Ramsey this time, Jacksonville’s pass rush has looked a lot more formidable in recent weeks. Plus, Buoye is difficult to beat deep, especially given the sorts of coverages that the Jaguars like to call.
The other option that Houston will want to exploit is the middle of the field. Jacksonville’s linebacking corps is mostly beleaguered with injury. One player who is healthy, though, is Myles Jack. A former safety, Jack is known for his speed and skill in coverage and I expect him to limit Houston’s favorite pass-catching running back Duke Johnson.
The Legend of Gardner Minshew Extends To London
Jacksonville’s often sub-par offensive line can breathe a sigh of relief. It faces off with a Houston pass rush that already lost one star in Jadeveon Clowney and recently lost its second in the injured J.J. Watt.
Houston’s biggest defensive problem is actually in the secondary where the Texans are suffering sundry injuries. They could be without their top three cornerbacks. Safety Tashaun Gipson will also be a game-time decision.
Minshew has developed superb chemistry with his wide receivers. D.J. Chark has become a reliable deep threat and is valuable all over the field.
While Chark leads the team with 660 receiving yards, Chris Conley is having a career year. Conley has amazing physical attributes. He runs a 4.35 40-yard dash, but is also 6’2 and 213 pounds. He’s averaging over 20 yards per catch and, with his superb catch radius, he ranks ninth in yards per target.
Conclusion
I think this game gets decided through the air with Minshew exploiting Houston’s secondary and lessened pass rush to do more than Watson. Houston’s travel inexperience is an added bonus.
Best Bet: Jaguars +2 at -105 odds with Heritage
Houston vs Jacksonville
Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 9:30 a.m. ET in Wembley Stadium
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Houston as the favorite by as many as three points. The line has moved slightly in Jacksonville’s favor as the Texans are currently favored by as low as one point.
In this match-up, Jacksonville is regarded as the home team, and rightly so, although this game takes place in London.
Preparation is crucial in football and the Jaguars know how to prepare themselves for London because they play there every year. It’s not uncommon to find teams unprepared for the toll that the long travel takes on their bodies. A recent example is Chicago, which fell behind 17-0 to Oakland before getting upset by the Raiders in London.
Houston plays in London for the first time ever, meaning that it doesn’t benefit from Jacksonville’s travel experience. The Texans are already making one mistake by leaving Thursday evening, which doesn't give their bodies enough time to adapt to the change in time zone.
Still, it’s best to cap the game because this game will be decided on the field and not on the airplane.
What Kind Of Impact Can Deshaun Watson Make?
With a starting running back that averages only 4.2 YPC, it’s clear that the key for Houston’s offensive success lies in its passing game.
At times, Watson will struggle to make plays behind an offensive line that ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate allowed. This ranking actually represents a huge improvement from last year. But Houston’s pass protection is still meager, especially considering how many would-be sacks the mobile Watson has evaded.
Jacksonville boasts a unique trio of pass rushers in rookie Josh Allen, Yannick Ngakoue, and Calais Campbell. They’ve combined for 15.5 sacks so far with Ngakoue becoming a more consistent presence behind the line of scrimmage after injuries slowed him down at the start of the season. The rookie has also become more consistent as he’s gotten a sack in four straight games.
The speed and athleticism especially of Allen and the multiple angles that Jacksonville’s edge rushers come from amount to significant pressure for opposing quarterbacks, who are often forced into poor decisions if they can even stay upright.
Overall, Jacksonville ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate and is built to make Watson uncomfortable.
Without Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville’s secondary will need help from its pass rush. Texan receiver DeAndre Hopkins is privately rejoicing that he won’t have to go up against the very physical Ramsey who can lock down any wide receiver in press man coverage.
While Hopkins will face off with A.J. Buoye instead of Ramsey this time, Jacksonville’s pass rush has looked a lot more formidable in recent weeks. Plus, Buoye is difficult to beat deep, especially given the sorts of coverages that the Jaguars like to call.
The other option that Houston will want to exploit is the middle of the field. Jacksonville’s linebacking corps is mostly beleaguered with injury. One player who is healthy, though, is Myles Jack. A former safety, Jack is known for his speed and skill in coverage and I expect him to limit Houston’s favorite pass-catching running back Duke Johnson.
The Legend of Gardner Minshew Extends To London
Jacksonville’s often sub-par offensive line can breathe a sigh of relief. It faces off with a Houston pass rush that already lost one star in Jadeveon Clowney and recently lost its second in the injured J.J. Watt.
Houston’s biggest defensive problem is actually in the secondary where the Texans are suffering sundry injuries. They could be without their top three cornerbacks. Safety Tashaun Gipson will also be a game-time decision.
Minshew has developed superb chemistry with his wide receivers. D.J. Chark has become a reliable deep threat and is valuable all over the field.
While Chark leads the team with 660 receiving yards, Chris Conley is having a career year. Conley has amazing physical attributes. He runs a 4.35 40-yard dash, but is also 6’2 and 213 pounds. He’s averaging over 20 yards per catch and, with his superb catch radius, he ranks ninth in yards per target.
Conclusion
I think this game gets decided through the air with Minshew exploiting Houston’s secondary and lessened pass rush to do more than Watson. Houston’s travel inexperience is an added bonus.
Best Bet: Jaguars +2 at -105 odds with Heritage
