Jaguars vs. Texans Week 2 NFL Odds & Predictions
Oddsmakers opened Houston as three-point favorites. After the season-ending injury to Jacksonville's starting quarterback, that spread has risen to nine. These AFC South rivals meet on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET in Houston.
The narrative was that Jacksonville’s defense underperformed last year for lack of effort— allegedly, it quit out of frustration with losing games and Jacksonville lost games because it had an inept quarterback.
Well, the Jaguars brought in a proven quarterback in Nick Foles and yet we saw the exact same problems with Jacksonville's defense. I'm not just talking about the discipline issues that climaxed in the ejection of Myles Jack, who's supposed to be a leader for the defense. Those discipline problems will probably continue as long as Jacksonville retains its coaching staff.
I'm also not talking about the ridiculously bad tackling and blown coverages from its young and unproven linebackers and safeties. Those mistakes will get better -- not by next week -- but slowly over time, as those Jaguar defenders mature.
My two main reasons for expecting little from Jacksonville on Sunday are scheme- and personnel-based.
Regarding scheme, Jacksonville defensive coordinator Todd Wash was able to get away with a lot of things in 2016, his first year as Jacksonville defensive coordinator. But opposing offenses have been able to dissect what Wash likes to do for its simplicity. It should afford no surprise that Wash's defense is so predictable because he had never served as defensive coordinator at a higher level than the FCS and clearly shouldn't be one in the NFL.
Wash often has his defensive backs playing conservatively, meaning off the ball and in zone. Wash's philosophy doesn't suit the skill set of his cornerbacks who like to be aggressive, arrogant, in-your-face, and play more man. In zone, Jaguar defensive backs mess up assignments and are manipulated into following receivers such that other spaces open up for the offense. Wash's philosophy also doesn't support Jacksonville's pass rush, which consists in elite defensive linemen who are unable to reach the quarterback because he gets the ball out so quickly.
Those teams do best against Jacksonville which study and face it most often. Last year, Jacksonville went 1-4-1 ATS against AFC South opponents.
That one cover and push both came against the same opponent, Indianapolis. Jacksonville's defense performed relatively well against Indianapolis because it enjoyed a key match-up advantage. The Jags love to face 11 personnel and Indianapolis played a ton of it. Pittsburgh, too, is another super-talented offense that Jacksonville's defense has loved to face and the Steelers also played a ton of 11.
Houston presents a match-up issue because it employed 11 personnel the least and 12 personnel the most. Therefore, the Texans are comfortable executing the formations most conducive to succeeding against Jacksonville's defense. Also, the Jags have had consistent issues with mobile quarterbacks. For example, Deshaun Watson ran for 66 yards when these two teams met last year in Houston.
Running back Carlos Hyde looked surprisingly fast and strong in Houston's opener in New Orleans. He ran for 83 yards on 10 carries against what was last year one of the NFL's best run defenses. Hyde can find similar success against the Jaguars, especially if run-stuffing defensive tackle Marcell Dareus doesn't play. He's listed as 'questionable' with an elbow injury.
Speaking of predictable, Jacksonville's offense has become exactly that, especially with Gardner Minshew filling in for Foles. Against the Chiefs, Jacksonville ran 11 personnel over 90 percent of the time. Jacksonville's sixth round selection ,who was also projected to be a seventh-rounder or even undrafted, is not comfortable with much.
He'll be easy for Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel to prepare for, who, unlike Wash, is great at adjusting his defense based on his specific opponent. Crennel also thrives against rookie quarterbacks as his defense last year allowed an average of 16 points against the Bills, Browns, and Jets, all of whom started quarterbacks who were top-10 draft picks.
Best Bet: Texans ATS
Oddsmakers opened Houston as three-point favorites. After the season-ending injury to Jacksonville's starting quarterback, that spread has risen to nine. These AFC South rivals meet on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET in Houston.
The narrative was that Jacksonville’s defense underperformed last year for lack of effort— allegedly, it quit out of frustration with losing games and Jacksonville lost games because it had an inept quarterback.
Well, the Jaguars brought in a proven quarterback in Nick Foles and yet we saw the exact same problems with Jacksonville's defense. I'm not just talking about the discipline issues that climaxed in the ejection of Myles Jack, who's supposed to be a leader for the defense. Those discipline problems will probably continue as long as Jacksonville retains its coaching staff.
I'm also not talking about the ridiculously bad tackling and blown coverages from its young and unproven linebackers and safeties. Those mistakes will get better -- not by next week -- but slowly over time, as those Jaguar defenders mature.
My two main reasons for expecting little from Jacksonville on Sunday are scheme- and personnel-based.
Regarding scheme, Jacksonville defensive coordinator Todd Wash was able to get away with a lot of things in 2016, his first year as Jacksonville defensive coordinator. But opposing offenses have been able to dissect what Wash likes to do for its simplicity. It should afford no surprise that Wash's defense is so predictable because he had never served as defensive coordinator at a higher level than the FCS and clearly shouldn't be one in the NFL.
Wash often has his defensive backs playing conservatively, meaning off the ball and in zone. Wash's philosophy doesn't suit the skill set of his cornerbacks who like to be aggressive, arrogant, in-your-face, and play more man. In zone, Jaguar defensive backs mess up assignments and are manipulated into following receivers such that other spaces open up for the offense. Wash's philosophy also doesn't support Jacksonville's pass rush, which consists in elite defensive linemen who are unable to reach the quarterback because he gets the ball out so quickly.
Those teams do best against Jacksonville which study and face it most often. Last year, Jacksonville went 1-4-1 ATS against AFC South opponents.
That one cover and push both came against the same opponent, Indianapolis. Jacksonville's defense performed relatively well against Indianapolis because it enjoyed a key match-up advantage. The Jags love to face 11 personnel and Indianapolis played a ton of it. Pittsburgh, too, is another super-talented offense that Jacksonville's defense has loved to face and the Steelers also played a ton of 11.
Houston presents a match-up issue because it employed 11 personnel the least and 12 personnel the most. Therefore, the Texans are comfortable executing the formations most conducive to succeeding against Jacksonville's defense. Also, the Jags have had consistent issues with mobile quarterbacks. For example, Deshaun Watson ran for 66 yards when these two teams met last year in Houston.
Running back Carlos Hyde looked surprisingly fast and strong in Houston's opener in New Orleans. He ran for 83 yards on 10 carries against what was last year one of the NFL's best run defenses. Hyde can find similar success against the Jaguars, especially if run-stuffing defensive tackle Marcell Dareus doesn't play. He's listed as 'questionable' with an elbow injury.
Speaking of predictable, Jacksonville's offense has become exactly that, especially with Gardner Minshew filling in for Foles. Against the Chiefs, Jacksonville ran 11 personnel over 90 percent of the time. Jacksonville's sixth round selection ,who was also projected to be a seventh-rounder or even undrafted, is not comfortable with much.
He'll be easy for Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel to prepare for, who, unlike Wash, is great at adjusting his defense based on his specific opponent. Crennel also thrives against rookie quarterbacks as his defense last year allowed an average of 16 points against the Bills, Browns, and Jets, all of whom started quarterbacks who were top-10 draft picks.
Best Bet: Texans ATS
