A lot of different match-up angles that i'd like to go break down one by one:
Texans Pass Attack vs Jaguars Defense
Jaguars are notorious for struggling against mobile quarterbacks this season. Early in the season Dak ran for 82 yards. Later in the season Josh Johnson ran for 49. I think this is because of the retirement of veteran linebacker Paul Posluszny. He was the quarterback of the Jags' defense and without him the linebackers are often in poor position. Watson didn't run at all against the Jags and he didn't play well because he was suffering from injured ribs that forced him to take a bus. But it seems like he was running well against the Eagles last week and I think he will be more effective against the Jags.
Passing-wise, Demaryius Thomas is out, but so is the Jags' number 2 corner AJ Buoye. DJ Hayden the number 3 is questionable as is the Texans' Coutee and Will Fuller is out. So that evens out. Ramsey vs Hopkins will be a great match-up, both will make great plays against each other.
Houston's pass protection is bottom-ranked in terms of adjusted sack rate. The Jags' sack numbers have gone down but not their pressure rate where they rank among the best. Anyhow Campbell and Ngakoue have combined 17 sacks and they will give Watson at least as much trouble as Watson will give them with his mobility.
The Jags' pass defense is one of the best, although it was non-existent early against Mahomes and Prescott. Top 5 in passer rating. I think it will do a good job here.
Texans Rush Attack vs Jaguars Defense
It looks like Lamar Miller is fully healthy. He'll need to be because there's no quality depth behind him. The Texans have a power running back, but so did Miami and Miami could have used their power running back more often with Gore injured and the Jags shut him down. After being embarrassed by Derrick Henry, the Jags have decided to tackle power running backs again. The Jags have given up big numbers on the ground to Prescott and Josh Allen, and Henry, but they did great against James Conner, and recently against Drake and Adrian Peterson holding Drake to 23 yards, Peterson and Conner to fewer than 3 YPC. Its a run defense that is much better than the statistics suggest.
The Jags have a solid defense and I don't think Houston has the weapons to really threaten it. Watson can get some runs but it's not really a big part of his game as it is for Josh Allen, for instance. He can get 40 yards on the ground I guess, similar to Mariota, and pass better than Mariota did. I see Jacksonville holding Houston to like 17-20 points.
Jaguars Pass Attack vs Texans Defense
The BOAT is back for one last farewell tour. I would think the jackass is very motivated in this one. It's not an understatement to say that his future in the NFL is at stake. At the very least the amount of interest and money he continues to get from Jax or (hopefully) from other teams. He did provide a spark when he came off the bench against Miami and he helped lead the Jags to the ultimately game-winning drive. He had a great end to last season so maybe he's an end of the season guy? Either way, he's so wildly inconsistent, that it's just hard to predict what he does. But I feel like it would be so like him to frustrate us Jags fans and throw a great game. I have a hunch he does well. He definitely gives Jax the best chance to win with his mobility. The Jags' o-line is so injury-ridden--its backups and backups' backups all over and on the other side its Watt and Clowney. So Bortles will be on the run. But Bortles is a great threat with his legs. He's historically one of the best quarterbacks in terms of YPC, that's not an exaggeration. He will need his legs to frustrate us Jags fans. It looks like Houston's top corner will be a game-time decision, so his absence would help. Watt btw is also questionable and like Johnathan Joseph he was limited in Friday's practice.
So bottom line, its Bortles. The range is immense given his inconsistency. I follow my Jags closely and for good or for worse I will go with my gut that he builds off his effort off the bench against Miami and does well (with limits, of course).
Jaguars Rush Attack vs Texans Defense
Fournette is doubtful. I'm so sick of this waste of a high draft pick....ok I need to calm down and remember Fred Taylor had the same question marks early in his career "Fragile Freddy" and I love Freddy. But anyways...Carlos Hyde is questionable, not that he's helpful. TJ Yeldon will be around and Bortles has had plenty of good games with him in the backfield...example: against New England. So I don't think this is such a big deal. Yeldon is a very helpful check-down option, anyhow, a much better pass-catcher than Lenny.
I think the Jags can scratch out a couple touchdowns. Let me think of what would probably happen if Bortles has a great game versus if Bortles would show his true shitty self and go with somewhere in the middle. I'll say 13-16 for the Jags, a few successful drives with help from field position.
Intangibles
Obviously the Jags have nothing to play for. But since giving an embarrassing effort against Tennessee, they have shown up. Had a 13-3 lead against Washington, lost 16-13. Tied 7-7 against Miami, Bortles came, and Jags ultimately won 17-7 and that was on the road. The Jags travel to Houston. The game is 1 o'clock. @austinhous has pointed out how sick Marrone-led teams are at 1 o'clock with I think every loss being a deficit of only 3 or 4 points, besides one 15 point loss Bills vs Patriots back in the day? Marrone likes to have his teams practice at 1 o'clock, to orient their body clock, so they are at their physical best at 1 o'clock. Houston is central time. The Jags have gotten blown out in all three central time games this year (Dallas, KC, Tennessee) but I think other factors were at work there because the Jags dominated last year on central time (Indianapolis, Houston, competitive loss at Tenny) whereas trends against the Jags on the west coast exist over years and indeed also last year they were awful at San Fran and Arizona. So I don't think a one-hour time difference is a factor.
The bigger question is motivation. It looks like the Jags are playing spoiler in a limited fashion and will build off their last effort the way they did at the end of the 2016 season. Houston is playing for the division. Could Houston be conservative with the use of Watt and Lamar Miller given its playoff hopes? That would certainly help.
Conclusion
I think it's rather ridiculous that the Jags are dogged so heavily. They often haven't been themselves. The injuries have been insane. The offense will be rather one-dimensional with Bortles and zero quality receivers. That obviously looks really bad. Even if Bortles balls out, unless special teams or defense helps, 20 is the absolute ceiling. Thing is, Texans have actually allowed six more sacks than Jacksonville this season altho the Jags often played with a statue in Kessler
I think it's a rather even match-up. Texans have the better quarterback, running back, and wide receiver crew, Jags the better pass defense (seventh in pass dvoa, Houston is 22nd) and equally strong front seven. Both teams will scratch and claw their way for yards.
Final Score Prediction: 19-14 Texans
Texans Pass Attack vs Jaguars Defense
Jaguars are notorious for struggling against mobile quarterbacks this season. Early in the season Dak ran for 82 yards. Later in the season Josh Johnson ran for 49. I think this is because of the retirement of veteran linebacker Paul Posluszny. He was the quarterback of the Jags' defense and without him the linebackers are often in poor position. Watson didn't run at all against the Jags and he didn't play well because he was suffering from injured ribs that forced him to take a bus. But it seems like he was running well against the Eagles last week and I think he will be more effective against the Jags.
Passing-wise, Demaryius Thomas is out, but so is the Jags' number 2 corner AJ Buoye. DJ Hayden the number 3 is questionable as is the Texans' Coutee and Will Fuller is out. So that evens out. Ramsey vs Hopkins will be a great match-up, both will make great plays against each other.
Houston's pass protection is bottom-ranked in terms of adjusted sack rate. The Jags' sack numbers have gone down but not their pressure rate where they rank among the best. Anyhow Campbell and Ngakoue have combined 17 sacks and they will give Watson at least as much trouble as Watson will give them with his mobility.
The Jags' pass defense is one of the best, although it was non-existent early against Mahomes and Prescott. Top 5 in passer rating. I think it will do a good job here.
Texans Rush Attack vs Jaguars Defense
It looks like Lamar Miller is fully healthy. He'll need to be because there's no quality depth behind him. The Texans have a power running back, but so did Miami and Miami could have used their power running back more often with Gore injured and the Jags shut him down. After being embarrassed by Derrick Henry, the Jags have decided to tackle power running backs again. The Jags have given up big numbers on the ground to Prescott and Josh Allen, and Henry, but they did great against James Conner, and recently against Drake and Adrian Peterson holding Drake to 23 yards, Peterson and Conner to fewer than 3 YPC. Its a run defense that is much better than the statistics suggest.
The Jags have a solid defense and I don't think Houston has the weapons to really threaten it. Watson can get some runs but it's not really a big part of his game as it is for Josh Allen, for instance. He can get 40 yards on the ground I guess, similar to Mariota, and pass better than Mariota did. I see Jacksonville holding Houston to like 17-20 points.
Jaguars Pass Attack vs Texans Defense
The BOAT is back for one last farewell tour. I would think the jackass is very motivated in this one. It's not an understatement to say that his future in the NFL is at stake. At the very least the amount of interest and money he continues to get from Jax or (hopefully) from other teams. He did provide a spark when he came off the bench against Miami and he helped lead the Jags to the ultimately game-winning drive. He had a great end to last season so maybe he's an end of the season guy? Either way, he's so wildly inconsistent, that it's just hard to predict what he does. But I feel like it would be so like him to frustrate us Jags fans and throw a great game. I have a hunch he does well. He definitely gives Jax the best chance to win with his mobility. The Jags' o-line is so injury-ridden--its backups and backups' backups all over and on the other side its Watt and Clowney. So Bortles will be on the run. But Bortles is a great threat with his legs. He's historically one of the best quarterbacks in terms of YPC, that's not an exaggeration. He will need his legs to frustrate us Jags fans. It looks like Houston's top corner will be a game-time decision, so his absence would help. Watt btw is also questionable and like Johnathan Joseph he was limited in Friday's practice.
So bottom line, its Bortles. The range is immense given his inconsistency. I follow my Jags closely and for good or for worse I will go with my gut that he builds off his effort off the bench against Miami and does well (with limits, of course).
Jaguars Rush Attack vs Texans Defense
Fournette is doubtful. I'm so sick of this waste of a high draft pick....ok I need to calm down and remember Fred Taylor had the same question marks early in his career "Fragile Freddy" and I love Freddy. But anyways...Carlos Hyde is questionable, not that he's helpful. TJ Yeldon will be around and Bortles has had plenty of good games with him in the backfield...example: against New England. So I don't think this is such a big deal. Yeldon is a very helpful check-down option, anyhow, a much better pass-catcher than Lenny.
I think the Jags can scratch out a couple touchdowns. Let me think of what would probably happen if Bortles has a great game versus if Bortles would show his true shitty self and go with somewhere in the middle. I'll say 13-16 for the Jags, a few successful drives with help from field position.
Intangibles
Obviously the Jags have nothing to play for. But since giving an embarrassing effort against Tennessee, they have shown up. Had a 13-3 lead against Washington, lost 16-13. Tied 7-7 against Miami, Bortles came, and Jags ultimately won 17-7 and that was on the road. The Jags travel to Houston. The game is 1 o'clock. @austinhous has pointed out how sick Marrone-led teams are at 1 o'clock with I think every loss being a deficit of only 3 or 4 points, besides one 15 point loss Bills vs Patriots back in the day? Marrone likes to have his teams practice at 1 o'clock, to orient their body clock, so they are at their physical best at 1 o'clock. Houston is central time. The Jags have gotten blown out in all three central time games this year (Dallas, KC, Tennessee) but I think other factors were at work there because the Jags dominated last year on central time (Indianapolis, Houston, competitive loss at Tenny) whereas trends against the Jags on the west coast exist over years and indeed also last year they were awful at San Fran and Arizona. So I don't think a one-hour time difference is a factor.
The bigger question is motivation. It looks like the Jags are playing spoiler in a limited fashion and will build off their last effort the way they did at the end of the 2016 season. Houston is playing for the division. Could Houston be conservative with the use of Watt and Lamar Miller given its playoff hopes? That would certainly help.
Conclusion
I think it's rather ridiculous that the Jags are dogged so heavily. They often haven't been themselves. The injuries have been insane. The offense will be rather one-dimensional with Bortles and zero quality receivers. That obviously looks really bad. Even if Bortles balls out, unless special teams or defense helps, 20 is the absolute ceiling. Thing is, Texans have actually allowed six more sacks than Jacksonville this season altho the Jags often played with a statue in Kessler
I think it's a rather even match-up. Texans have the better quarterback, running back, and wide receiver crew, Jags the better pass defense (seventh in pass dvoa, Houston is 22nd) and equally strong front seven. Both teams will scratch and claw their way for yards.
Final Score Prediction: 19-14 Texans
