Our Top NFL Week 13 Parlay: Best Bets for Sunday Games
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Rams' Offensive Issues
L.A. is suffering 0-3 SU and ATS streaks largely because of its offense.
After mustering 16 points against the Titans -- with seven of those points coming in garbage time -- they scored 10 against San Francisco.
Last week, against Green Bay, they scored 17 through three quarters when the game was out of reach.
Quarterback Matt Stafford's mistakes have played a prominent role in the Rams' offensive struggles.
His error-prone tendencies are evident in the fact that he has thrown five interceptions in his past three games combined.
It is accurate, but also overly simplistic, to pin the blame for L.A.'s current struggles on Stafford.
Stafford is who he is, just as Jared Goff was who he was last year for the Rams.
Whereas Goff averaged one of the lowest IAY (Average Intended Air Yards) numbers last year, Stafford averages one of the highest this year.
In other words, the Rams liked to execute more short passing last year. Goff rode his running backs: when they thrived, his play-action passing could be effective.
This year, the offense looks different because Stafford is more of a gun-slinger by nature.
He likes to throws deeper passes, but now defenses are adjusting their coverages, forcing him to throw shorter passes. Nevertheless, Stafford remains aggressive and forces the issue downfield.
There is also too little running. Despite the quality of running backs at their disposal, the Rams rank towards the bottom in run play percentage and they are trending downward in this respect.
Jacksonville's Defensive Improvement
I think that the posted total is as high as it is because oddsmakers are slow to adjust to the Rams' offensive issues, but also because they're slow to adjust to Jacksonville's defensive improvement.
The Jaguars were blown out by the 49ers, it is true. But the 49ers are a run-first team.
They are thus completely different in kind from the Stafford-led Rams that have passed an absurd 73.02-percent of the time in their past three games and own the ninth-highest pass-play percentage this season.
Jacksonville's defensive improvement is evident in its increased ability to limit the opponent's passer rating, which, if its three-game average of opposing passer rating were a season-long statistic, would pit the Jaguar pass defense 14 spots higher than it's currently ranked.
Jaguar defensive backs are more suited to zone coverage, which the team's coaches were wise to begin implementing more of.
Their improved coverage abilities -- in zone -- are compelling opposing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball more, which is something that Stafford is already more prone to do given his penchant for the vertical passing game where routes take longer to develop.
As the season has progressed, moreover, the Jaguars have been improving their pass rush, as pressure, quarterback hit, and sack totals show.
Former first-rounder Josh Allen is one notable pass-rusher. After amassing 10.5 sacks in his rookie season, he is now accruing a career-high number of quarterback pressures per game.
It is easier for Jaguar cornerbacks to make plays when the pass rush grows more effective.
Jacksonville's Offense
Jacksonville's offense remains utterly inept as quarterback Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle.
He has trouble accruing yards and avoiding interceptions because of his issues with accuracy and the lack of playmaking talent at wide receiver, especially with DJ Chark, Jamal Agnew, and most recently starting tight end Dan Arnold injured.
Chark was the team's leading receiver, Agnew the most versatile player, and Arnold a consistent pass-catching threat at the tight end position.
Given Jacksonville's lack of danger in its pass attack, the Jaguars have mustered 47 points in their past four games.
Their conspicuous lack of talent or developed ability largely explains why the "under" is 9-2 in their games season.
Side Verdict
We don't have to worry about the Rams scoring a lot when the game is already decided because they will surely be winning this game in the fourth quarter.
Excluding their garbage-time scoring, they have been struggling to reach 20 points.
Given L.A.'s patterned offensive struggle, the Jaguars will only need to produce a little in order to score.
The Ram defense, which lost a lot of important personnel in the offseason, took a step back.
Opposing running backs, even behind a battered offensive line, have been useful to their offense, as Green Bay's AJ Dillon shows.
James Robinson, for Jacksonville, is a tough runner, averaging 5.1 YPC while contributing as a pass-catcher.
He will play a big role for the Jaguars. Yet even if he and nobody else shows up, in the worst-case scenario, Lawrence has repeatedly been a hero in terms of scoring meaningless fourth-quarter points, as his performances against the Colts, Seahawks, and others show.
As a struggling top draft pick, he probably feels pressure to pad his stats.
His fourth-quarter history makes him a reliable candidate to score necessary garbage points for a backdoor cover, should one be necessary.
Overall, though, the Jaguar offense's limitations will contribute to a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Parlay Jaguars +13 at -115 & Under 48 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Rams' Offensive Issues
L.A. is suffering 0-3 SU and ATS streaks largely because of its offense.
After mustering 16 points against the Titans -- with seven of those points coming in garbage time -- they scored 10 against San Francisco.
Last week, against Green Bay, they scored 17 through three quarters when the game was out of reach.
Quarterback Matt Stafford's mistakes have played a prominent role in the Rams' offensive struggles.
His error-prone tendencies are evident in the fact that he has thrown five interceptions in his past three games combined.
It is accurate, but also overly simplistic, to pin the blame for L.A.'s current struggles on Stafford.
Stafford is who he is, just as Jared Goff was who he was last year for the Rams.
Whereas Goff averaged one of the lowest IAY (Average Intended Air Yards) numbers last year, Stafford averages one of the highest this year.
In other words, the Rams liked to execute more short passing last year. Goff rode his running backs: when they thrived, his play-action passing could be effective.
This year, the offense looks different because Stafford is more of a gun-slinger by nature.
He likes to throws deeper passes, but now defenses are adjusting their coverages, forcing him to throw shorter passes. Nevertheless, Stafford remains aggressive and forces the issue downfield.
There is also too little running. Despite the quality of running backs at their disposal, the Rams rank towards the bottom in run play percentage and they are trending downward in this respect.
Jacksonville's Defensive Improvement
I think that the posted total is as high as it is because oddsmakers are slow to adjust to the Rams' offensive issues, but also because they're slow to adjust to Jacksonville's defensive improvement.
The Jaguars were blown out by the 49ers, it is true. But the 49ers are a run-first team.
They are thus completely different in kind from the Stafford-led Rams that have passed an absurd 73.02-percent of the time in their past three games and own the ninth-highest pass-play percentage this season.
Jacksonville's defensive improvement is evident in its increased ability to limit the opponent's passer rating, which, if its three-game average of opposing passer rating were a season-long statistic, would pit the Jaguar pass defense 14 spots higher than it's currently ranked.
Jaguar defensive backs are more suited to zone coverage, which the team's coaches were wise to begin implementing more of.
Their improved coverage abilities -- in zone -- are compelling opposing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball more, which is something that Stafford is already more prone to do given his penchant for the vertical passing game where routes take longer to develop.
As the season has progressed, moreover, the Jaguars have been improving their pass rush, as pressure, quarterback hit, and sack totals show.
Former first-rounder Josh Allen is one notable pass-rusher. After amassing 10.5 sacks in his rookie season, he is now accruing a career-high number of quarterback pressures per game.
It is easier for Jaguar cornerbacks to make plays when the pass rush grows more effective.
Jacksonville's Offense
Jacksonville's offense remains utterly inept as quarterback Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle.
He has trouble accruing yards and avoiding interceptions because of his issues with accuracy and the lack of playmaking talent at wide receiver, especially with DJ Chark, Jamal Agnew, and most recently starting tight end Dan Arnold injured.
Chark was the team's leading receiver, Agnew the most versatile player, and Arnold a consistent pass-catching threat at the tight end position.
Given Jacksonville's lack of danger in its pass attack, the Jaguars have mustered 47 points in their past four games.
Their conspicuous lack of talent or developed ability largely explains why the "under" is 9-2 in their games season.
Side Verdict
We don't have to worry about the Rams scoring a lot when the game is already decided because they will surely be winning this game in the fourth quarter.
Excluding their garbage-time scoring, they have been struggling to reach 20 points.
Given L.A.'s patterned offensive struggle, the Jaguars will only need to produce a little in order to score.
The Ram defense, which lost a lot of important personnel in the offseason, took a step back.
Opposing running backs, even behind a battered offensive line, have been useful to their offense, as Green Bay's AJ Dillon shows.
James Robinson, for Jacksonville, is a tough runner, averaging 5.1 YPC while contributing as a pass-catcher.
He will play a big role for the Jaguars. Yet even if he and nobody else shows up, in the worst-case scenario, Lawrence has repeatedly been a hero in terms of scoring meaningless fourth-quarter points, as his performances against the Colts, Seahawks, and others show.
As a struggling top draft pick, he probably feels pressure to pad his stats.
His fourth-quarter history makes him a reliable candidate to score necessary garbage points for a backdoor cover, should one be necessary.
Overall, though, the Jaguar offense's limitations will contribute to a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Parlay Jaguars +13 at -115 & Under 48 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
