NFL Parlay For Sunday’s Games At +197 Odds
Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field
Matt Stafford
I recommend that, for this week’s upcoming game, you don’t buy into the criticism being leveled against Detroit quarterback Matt Stafford.
While his numbers are down, the extent to which they seem to be is magnified by the greater expectations created for him by his performance last season before his injury.
Last year, Stafford was producing career-best outputs. This year, he is more around his career average.
In breaking down his games this year, it’s apparent that two factors have hurt him: the quality of the opposing secondary and the absence of wide receiver Kenny Golladay.
He was relatively poor against pass defenses that rank in the upper half in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and he struggled without Golladay.
In turn, Stafford’s best game came against Arizona where he completed 22 of 31 passes (70 percent) for 270 yards and two touchdowns to zero interceptions. This game was also Golladay’s first this season.
You can see an example of how both factors play themselves out at 2:40 in the following video:
You see two Lion pass-catchers drawing two Arizona defenders underneath.
Golladay runs a route to the middle of the field where he’s open.
Stafford throws high where only Golladay can get it and quickly enough so that no Arizona defender can reach the ball before Golladay does.
Also note that Stafford faces zero quarterback pressure. He’s able to demonstrate positive footwork and to step into his throw as he needs to.
So we see: solid pass protection, a comfortable, well-timed, well-placed throw, a nice route run by the wide receiver, and helpless pass coverage.
I expect to see all of these things on Sunday.
Jacksonville’s Pass Defense
In terms of pass defense, Jacksonville ranks dead-last in DVOA.
Looking at the individual cornerbacks, C.J. Henderson has been Jacksonville’s best.
But this is in no way to compliment Henderson: he’s allowing a 65.2 percent completion rate and 98.3 passer rating when targeted. He’s also targeted more than any Jaguar cornerback.
Henderson, by the way, is listed as ‚questionable‘ with a shoulder injury.
Tre Herndon, when targeted, is allowing a 70.6 completion percentage and 123.4 passer rating.
When targeted, D.J. Hayden allows an 86.7 completion percentage and 114.8 passer rating.
The only Jaguar who’s targeted with any regularity and who’s still successful in coverage is linebacker Myles Jack. He actually missed the team’s last game and is still listed as ‚questionable‘ with an ankle injury.
It doesn’t help the Jaguars’ secondary that the team lost its best pass rushers except Josh Allen.
Allen is the team’s only capable pass rusher and opposing offenses are able to focus on neutralizing him.
Of course, the team’s pass rush is hurt by the secondary’s inability to keep guys from getting open.
So the team ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate.
Detroit’s Defensive Weakness
By far, Detroit’s biggest problem is its league-worst rush defense.
In the team’s worst games in terms of opposing scoring output — Detroit allowed 42 against the Packers and 35 against New Orleans — running backs carried the torch for the opposing offense.
Led by Aaron Jones’ 168 yards rushing, Green Bay accumulated 259 rushing yards on 35 carries.
The Saints, meanwhile, offered Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray a combined 33 times on the ground and they amassed 147 rushing yards.
Those two teams are very different from Jacksonville in that they possess top-caliber run-blocking units — as evidenced by FootballOutsiders’ metrics — and superb running backs.
As such, they are built to exploit the Lions’ defensive weakness.
But Jacksonville is not. The Jaguars own the NFL’s lowest run-play percentage.
Even when the Jags face low-quality opposing run defenses like Houston's and even when they are competitive in games, they are absolutely a pass-first team.
Can Minshew Keep Pace?
Jacksonville quarterback Gardner Minshew is not going to drive downfield in a hurry. According to Next-Gen Stats, he ranks below-average in both average intended air yards and aggressiveness.
His lack of arm strength is one reason why Jacksonville’s pass offense is more conservative.
So the Jaguars' pass attack is easier to contain because of the lack of vertical threat. They have to grind out drives in order to be productive.
Even on shorter throws, Minshew too often shows a lack of vision when in the pocket, which will hurt him when contending with Lion cornerbacks.
Every Lion cornerback who has been targeted at least 10 times allows a lower passer rating when targeted than each of Jacksonville’s top three cornerbacks.
One corner to look out for is Jeff Okudah, the Lions’ first draft pick.
After contending with DeAndre Hopkins and Arizona’s up-tempo, spread offense, he has been tested like Henderson never has.
Despite that one effort against an elite wide receiver, Okudah’s numbers are better, promising, and improving. He was hardly targeted in the team’s last game against New Orleans.
Collectively, Detroit’s pass defense ranks 17 spots better than Jacksonville’s despite struggling in terms of pass rush largely as a result of the team’s problems against the run which the Jaguars won’t exploit.
Besides facing stronger cornerbacks, Minshew may be without his top target, D.J. Chark, who left the last game with an ankle injury.
The Total
The over/under posted stands out to me because of how high it is.
It’s really easy to forge an explanation that we should bet the „over“ because of how poor both defenses are.
But we have to look at the over/under. The conservativeness of both offenses will allow the clock to drain too easily.
I talked about Minshew’s conservativeness. But even Stafford has become more conservative as evidenced by his stark reduction this year both in average intended air yards and in aggressiveness.
Jacksonville is only too happy to allow Stafford to dink-and-dunk. The Jaguars typically play a soft zone where they aim to keep everything in front of them.
Of course, the Jaguars aren’t good at limiting opposing pass attacks to short gains — they rank 27th in opposing yards per pass completion.
But a more conservative Lion pass attack takes longer (by choice) to exploit Jacksonville’s secondary.
In two of Detroit’s „overs," the opposing team had a massive day running the ball. Without Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville lacks the personnel to blast opposing front sevens with.
In Detroit’s other „over,“ the Lions lost all of their starting cornerbacks to injury and were accordingly torched in the fourth quarter by the opposing pass attack. Those were exceptional circumstances.
The Verdict
Jacksonville is the first team in NFL history to win three straight games against winless opponents.
No matter who they play, the Jaguars can’t win.
Their secondary has zero bright spots and the one bright spot in their pass rush gets neutralized.
Offensively, they essentially feature a backup quarterback. They have the least inclination to support him with a running attack because their weapons are in the passing game.
As for the total, each team lacks the firepower to exceed the posted total. Expect conservative offenses to keep the game low-scoring while Detroit’s stronger quarterback and better secondary ensure a Lion victory.
For the above reasons, bet on the Jaguars to lose their eighth straight against an NFC team and bet on the game to stay under the inflated total.
Best Bet: Parlay Lions ML (-185) & Under 54.5 (-108) at Heritage at +197
Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field
Matt Stafford
I recommend that, for this week’s upcoming game, you don’t buy into the criticism being leveled against Detroit quarterback Matt Stafford.
While his numbers are down, the extent to which they seem to be is magnified by the greater expectations created for him by his performance last season before his injury.
Last year, Stafford was producing career-best outputs. This year, he is more around his career average.
In breaking down his games this year, it’s apparent that two factors have hurt him: the quality of the opposing secondary and the absence of wide receiver Kenny Golladay.
He was relatively poor against pass defenses that rank in the upper half in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and he struggled without Golladay.
In turn, Stafford’s best game came against Arizona where he completed 22 of 31 passes (70 percent) for 270 yards and two touchdowns to zero interceptions. This game was also Golladay’s first this season.
You can see an example of how both factors play themselves out at 2:40 in the following video:
You see two Lion pass-catchers drawing two Arizona defenders underneath.
Golladay runs a route to the middle of the field where he’s open.
Stafford throws high where only Golladay can get it and quickly enough so that no Arizona defender can reach the ball before Golladay does.
Also note that Stafford faces zero quarterback pressure. He’s able to demonstrate positive footwork and to step into his throw as he needs to.
So we see: solid pass protection, a comfortable, well-timed, well-placed throw, a nice route run by the wide receiver, and helpless pass coverage.
I expect to see all of these things on Sunday.
Jacksonville’s Pass Defense
In terms of pass defense, Jacksonville ranks dead-last in DVOA.
Looking at the individual cornerbacks, C.J. Henderson has been Jacksonville’s best.
But this is in no way to compliment Henderson: he’s allowing a 65.2 percent completion rate and 98.3 passer rating when targeted. He’s also targeted more than any Jaguar cornerback.
Henderson, by the way, is listed as ‚questionable‘ with a shoulder injury.
Tre Herndon, when targeted, is allowing a 70.6 completion percentage and 123.4 passer rating.
When targeted, D.J. Hayden allows an 86.7 completion percentage and 114.8 passer rating.
The only Jaguar who’s targeted with any regularity and who’s still successful in coverage is linebacker Myles Jack. He actually missed the team’s last game and is still listed as ‚questionable‘ with an ankle injury.
It doesn’t help the Jaguars’ secondary that the team lost its best pass rushers except Josh Allen.
Allen is the team’s only capable pass rusher and opposing offenses are able to focus on neutralizing him.
Of course, the team’s pass rush is hurt by the secondary’s inability to keep guys from getting open.
So the team ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate.
Detroit’s Defensive Weakness
By far, Detroit’s biggest problem is its league-worst rush defense.
In the team’s worst games in terms of opposing scoring output — Detroit allowed 42 against the Packers and 35 against New Orleans — running backs carried the torch for the opposing offense.
Led by Aaron Jones’ 168 yards rushing, Green Bay accumulated 259 rushing yards on 35 carries.
The Saints, meanwhile, offered Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray a combined 33 times on the ground and they amassed 147 rushing yards.
Those two teams are very different from Jacksonville in that they possess top-caliber run-blocking units — as evidenced by FootballOutsiders’ metrics — and superb running backs.
As such, they are built to exploit the Lions’ defensive weakness.
But Jacksonville is not. The Jaguars own the NFL’s lowest run-play percentage.
Even when the Jags face low-quality opposing run defenses like Houston's and even when they are competitive in games, they are absolutely a pass-first team.
Can Minshew Keep Pace?
Jacksonville quarterback Gardner Minshew is not going to drive downfield in a hurry. According to Next-Gen Stats, he ranks below-average in both average intended air yards and aggressiveness.
His lack of arm strength is one reason why Jacksonville’s pass offense is more conservative.
So the Jaguars' pass attack is easier to contain because of the lack of vertical threat. They have to grind out drives in order to be productive.
Even on shorter throws, Minshew too often shows a lack of vision when in the pocket, which will hurt him when contending with Lion cornerbacks.
Every Lion cornerback who has been targeted at least 10 times allows a lower passer rating when targeted than each of Jacksonville’s top three cornerbacks.
One corner to look out for is Jeff Okudah, the Lions’ first draft pick.
After contending with DeAndre Hopkins and Arizona’s up-tempo, spread offense, he has been tested like Henderson never has.
Despite that one effort against an elite wide receiver, Okudah’s numbers are better, promising, and improving. He was hardly targeted in the team’s last game against New Orleans.
Collectively, Detroit’s pass defense ranks 17 spots better than Jacksonville’s despite struggling in terms of pass rush largely as a result of the team’s problems against the run which the Jaguars won’t exploit.
Besides facing stronger cornerbacks, Minshew may be without his top target, D.J. Chark, who left the last game with an ankle injury.
The Total
The over/under posted stands out to me because of how high it is.
It’s really easy to forge an explanation that we should bet the „over“ because of how poor both defenses are.
But we have to look at the over/under. The conservativeness of both offenses will allow the clock to drain too easily.
I talked about Minshew’s conservativeness. But even Stafford has become more conservative as evidenced by his stark reduction this year both in average intended air yards and in aggressiveness.
Jacksonville is only too happy to allow Stafford to dink-and-dunk. The Jaguars typically play a soft zone where they aim to keep everything in front of them.
Of course, the Jaguars aren’t good at limiting opposing pass attacks to short gains — they rank 27th in opposing yards per pass completion.
But a more conservative Lion pass attack takes longer (by choice) to exploit Jacksonville’s secondary.
In two of Detroit’s „overs," the opposing team had a massive day running the ball. Without Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville lacks the personnel to blast opposing front sevens with.
In Detroit’s other „over,“ the Lions lost all of their starting cornerbacks to injury and were accordingly torched in the fourth quarter by the opposing pass attack. Those were exceptional circumstances.
The Verdict
Jacksonville is the first team in NFL history to win three straight games against winless opponents.
No matter who they play, the Jaguars can’t win.
Their secondary has zero bright spots and the one bright spot in their pass rush gets neutralized.
Offensively, they essentially feature a backup quarterback. They have the least inclination to support him with a running attack because their weapons are in the passing game.
As for the total, each team lacks the firepower to exceed the posted total. Expect conservative offenses to keep the game low-scoring while Detroit’s stronger quarterback and better secondary ensure a Lion victory.
For the above reasons, bet on the Jaguars to lose their eighth straight against an NFC team and bet on the game to stay under the inflated total.
Best Bet: Parlay Lions ML (-185) & Under 54.5 (-108) at Heritage at +197
