Trends
Jags have covered or pushed seven in a row against Indy.
Colts have won five in a row, 3-1-1 ATS.
Jags have lost seven in a row. 0-5-2 ATS.
Jags
Jags fired their OC, QB coach Scott Milanovich is the new play-caller. Benched Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler.
Kessler posted great numbers in 2016 with the Browns, but was involved almost purely in blowouts in which the defense took its foot off the gas pedal and let Kessler take what was there. He also had the benefit of having a solid left tackle in Joe Thomas. In 2017 Kessler threw 23 passes, posted a 46.6 passer rating. In 2018 Kessler got to play in another blowout and put up a high completion % but also a pick.
Kessler‘s game is short yardage, high completion percentage. Unlike Blake, he‘s designed for the game manager role since college. He won‘t win games, but will rely on his supporting cast.
So the solution seems really simple: Indy will play contain defense and force Kessler to beat him deep.
Kessler gets very little help. Left tackle is on IR, center is out, left guard is out. Fournette suspended. Wide receivers lead the NFL in passes dropped.
Kessler is not mobile like Bortles, though it may help that Colts don't get a lot of sacks.
In sum: new playcaller with less than a week amid turmoil and distraction to concoct a game plan with a new starting quarterback, a backup acquired for a conditional seventh rounder, who has a backup running back, an offensive line in shambles, and garbage receivers to help him.
Colts
Luck has been red-hot past five games with passer rating above 120 in four of five, over 100 in the other.
Included game against Jags: 21-29, 285 yards, three touchdowns and an INT. Colts led in that one 29-16 after a half.
Luck been getting superb pass protection. #1 in percentage of sacks allowed. "Sacksonville" ranks 24th in sacks allowed. This year, they are facing stronger competition. Last year, for example, when the Jags faced the NFL's top pass protection Chargers, they got zero sacks on Rivers in 37 drop-backs. and aren't playing with leads, whereby it's easier to mount a pass rush because the opposing offense becomes more predictable (pass-heavy) when down.
Colts match up well because they like to implement a lot of 12 personnel. In that first half against Jax, they did so 60% of the time. This is a great article that shows how the Jags struggle tremendously against 12 personnel, whereas they do well against teams like PIttsburgh because they run a lot of 11 personnel: http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/the-secret-to-beating-the-jaguars-pass-defense
Mack is healthy. Hilton may benefit from the absence of Jalen Ramsey, who was limited in Friday's practice and is listed as 'questionable.'
Situation:
Possible lookahead for Colts, who play Houston next week.
Jaguars had high expectations that were demolished. Motivation?
Jags have covered or pushed seven in a row against Indy.
Colts have won five in a row, 3-1-1 ATS.
Jags have lost seven in a row. 0-5-2 ATS.
Jags
Jags fired their OC, QB coach Scott Milanovich is the new play-caller. Benched Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler.
Kessler posted great numbers in 2016 with the Browns, but was involved almost purely in blowouts in which the defense took its foot off the gas pedal and let Kessler take what was there. He also had the benefit of having a solid left tackle in Joe Thomas. In 2017 Kessler threw 23 passes, posted a 46.6 passer rating. In 2018 Kessler got to play in another blowout and put up a high completion % but also a pick.
Kessler‘s game is short yardage, high completion percentage. Unlike Blake, he‘s designed for the game manager role since college. He won‘t win games, but will rely on his supporting cast.
So the solution seems really simple: Indy will play contain defense and force Kessler to beat him deep.
Kessler gets very little help. Left tackle is on IR, center is out, left guard is out. Fournette suspended. Wide receivers lead the NFL in passes dropped.
Kessler is not mobile like Bortles, though it may help that Colts don't get a lot of sacks.
In sum: new playcaller with less than a week amid turmoil and distraction to concoct a game plan with a new starting quarterback, a backup acquired for a conditional seventh rounder, who has a backup running back, an offensive line in shambles, and garbage receivers to help him.
Colts
Luck has been red-hot past five games with passer rating above 120 in four of five, over 100 in the other.
Included game against Jags: 21-29, 285 yards, three touchdowns and an INT. Colts led in that one 29-16 after a half.
Luck been getting superb pass protection. #1 in percentage of sacks allowed. "Sacksonville" ranks 24th in sacks allowed. This year, they are facing stronger competition. Last year, for example, when the Jags faced the NFL's top pass protection Chargers, they got zero sacks on Rivers in 37 drop-backs. and aren't playing with leads, whereby it's easier to mount a pass rush because the opposing offense becomes more predictable (pass-heavy) when down.
Colts match up well because they like to implement a lot of 12 personnel. In that first half against Jax, they did so 60% of the time. This is a great article that shows how the Jags struggle tremendously against 12 personnel, whereas they do well against teams like PIttsburgh because they run a lot of 11 personnel: http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/the-secret-to-beating-the-jaguars-pass-defense
Mack is healthy. Hilton may benefit from the absence of Jalen Ramsey, who was limited in Friday's practice and is listed as 'questionable.'
Situation:
Possible lookahead for Colts, who play Houston next week.
Jaguars had high expectations that were demolished. Motivation?
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