Divisional Round Playoff Parlay at (+264): Chiefs to Blow Out Jags in High-Scoring Affair
Parlay: Parlay Chiefs -8.5 at -110 & Over 52 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
The First Meeting
These teams met in Week 10 in Kansas City.
Kansas City won that game 27-17, possibly covering the spread (it depends on which number you got).
Both teams missed opportunities -- Jacksonville missed two field goals and had to settle for a field goal after being four yards from a touchdown; on the other side, the Chiefs fumbled inside Jacksonville's 10 and missed an extra point.
It should be said that one Jaguar field goal attempt was far from a gimme -- it was a 51-yarder -- and the other followed a Chief fumble.
The Chiefs outgained Jacksonville 486-315.
All of these details make the spread for Saturday's game appear reasonable.
Jacksonville Was Turnover-Free
But a closer look at the first meeting indicates that Kansas City could have won by a lot more.
Jacksonville benefitted from gaining extra possessions: the Jaguars turned it over zero times while the Chiefs turned it over three times.
Plus, Jacksonville recovered an onside kick.
As we saw last week in his game against the Chargers and to a lesser extent in his must-win game against Tennessee, young Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been shaky in this playoff-type atmosphere.
Against the Titans, he missed some easy throws that cost the Jaguars points.
Against the Chargers, he threw four interceptions.
Lawrence's shakiness, which will surely be magnified in rocking Arrowhead Stadium, makes it seem unlikely that the turnover differential from these teams' first meeting will repeat itself.
So, Jacksonville lost by 10 despite playing a cleaner game.
Jacksonville Had Other Benefits
With 486 yards, Kansas City's offense was dominant against the Jaguar defense.
The Chiefs ended the game inside Jacksonville's 30. So they were on their way to scoring more points as the game ended.
Their offense was so successful despite its turnovers and despite key absences.
For the second half, the Chiefs missed their second-leading pass-catcher, JuJu Smith-Schuster, who exited the game with a concussion. He is going to be amped-up to get revenge on Jaguar safety Andre Cisco.
Fellow wide receiver Mecole Hardman was also absent, whereas Jacksonville was healthy.
Wide receiver Kadarius Toney was also still just a recent acquisition, being worked into the Chief offense.
In sum, Kansas City played somewhat handicapped offensively and was unusually sloppy and lackadaisical.
Nonetheless, the Chiefs led 20-0 and were close to building on their 27-17 lead.
Is Jacksonville Better Now?
One might say that the Jaguars are better since that game in view of their improved record -- the loss to Kansas City dropped them to 3-7. and they finished the regular season 9-8.
But they benefitted from facing Raven, Titan, Jet, Texan, and again Titan offenses limited by poor quarterback play -- Titan Ryan Tannehill ranks among the worst starters in terms of passer rating; the Jets' Zach Wilson looks like a bust; and those other quarterbacks Jacksonville faced surely won't be starting next season.
Three of those teams rank bottom-five in scoring offense.
On the flip side, they've faced three teams that rank in the upper half in scoring offense, and all of those teams scored 30 or more points against them: Detroit scored 40; Dallas scored 34; the Chargers scored 30.
Kansas City, with its top-ranked scoring offense, scored 27 points against the Jags; but, with its increased health and with less sloppiness, Kansas City is primed to reach 40 points and to exceed that number if Jacksonville turns it over.
Top Pass-Catchers vs. Jacksonville
The statistically best wide receivers and tight ends -- as measured by receptions -- have thrived downfield played well above their average against Jacksonville.
These pass-catchers are Raider Davante Adams, Colt Michael Pittman, Cowboy CeeDee Lamb, and Lion Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Jacksonville allowed the most points to teams featuring such a high-level wide receiver.
Held back by subpar quarterback play, Las Vegas failed to exceed 30 points, although the Colts did exceed 30 when Pittman played.
In addition to having obviously the best quarterback, the Chiefs have an elite tight end in Travis Kelce who caught six of seven targets for 81 yards.
With Kansas City's leading wide receiver Smith-Schuster healthy, Jacksonville won't be able to worry too much about Kelce.
Kelce should be more involved this time around against a Jaguar secondary that lacks the ability to contain him and that almost entirely failed to stop him when Mahomes threw him the ball.
Jacksonville allows the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends, and the Chiefs have the NFL's top tight end who ranks third in receptions.
Also, the Jags allow the second-most yards per game to running backs, and the Chiefs have an excellent pass-catching running back in Jerick McKinnon, who has 56 receptions for 512 yards on the season.
Running the Ball
Despite centering its offense on its elite pass attack, Kansas City accrued 155 rushing yards on 27 rush attempts against the Jags.
Isiah Pacheco is characteristically physical and tough to bring down.
But the Chief rush attack is especially tough to stop because of its ability to use wide receivers like the speedy Toney to attack the edges.
Using these alternative weapons plus the scrambling ability of Mahomes will keep Jacksonville's run defense much more honest than it has had to be in recent weeks.
Can Jacksonville Keep Pace?
In every rematch this season, Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence was worse than in the first game.
The one exception is the Houston rematch because Lawrence was so atrocious in the first game.
In the rematch, his passer rating was an awful 77.0.
Most recently, the Charger defense modeled a great gameplan against Lawrence.
After allowing him to make easy throws in the first game, the Chargers applied significant pressure and had their defensive backs crash down on wide receiver routes in order to take away Lawrence's favored short and intermediate passing game in the rematch.
Expect Kansas City's defense to challenge Lawrence with similar adjustments.
Both Chief cornerbacks are yielding a passer rating below 87.
They are supported by a pass rush featuring Chris Jones with his 15.5 sacks.
As evident most recently, Lawrence is flummoxed by pressure, and, with Jones, Kansas City is one of the best teams at applying pressure.
Key Circumstances
Chief head coach Andy Reid is famously good after a bye week, so this is a good spot for his team.
After watching last week's Jaguar game, Reid will be sure to have his team keep the foot on the gas pedal.
Parlay Verdict
Kansas City's continual scoring and added scoring from Lawrence-led Jacksonville against a Chief defense that tends to let even subpar offenses reach 20 points will ensure that the game flies "over."
Parlay: Parlay Chiefs -8.5 at -110 & Over 52 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
The First Meeting
These teams met in Week 10 in Kansas City.
Kansas City won that game 27-17, possibly covering the spread (it depends on which number you got).
Both teams missed opportunities -- Jacksonville missed two field goals and had to settle for a field goal after being four yards from a touchdown; on the other side, the Chiefs fumbled inside Jacksonville's 10 and missed an extra point.
It should be said that one Jaguar field goal attempt was far from a gimme -- it was a 51-yarder -- and the other followed a Chief fumble.
The Chiefs outgained Jacksonville 486-315.
All of these details make the spread for Saturday's game appear reasonable.
Jacksonville Was Turnover-Free
But a closer look at the first meeting indicates that Kansas City could have won by a lot more.
Jacksonville benefitted from gaining extra possessions: the Jaguars turned it over zero times while the Chiefs turned it over three times.
Plus, Jacksonville recovered an onside kick.
As we saw last week in his game against the Chargers and to a lesser extent in his must-win game against Tennessee, young Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been shaky in this playoff-type atmosphere.
Against the Titans, he missed some easy throws that cost the Jaguars points.
Against the Chargers, he threw four interceptions.
Lawrence's shakiness, which will surely be magnified in rocking Arrowhead Stadium, makes it seem unlikely that the turnover differential from these teams' first meeting will repeat itself.
So, Jacksonville lost by 10 despite playing a cleaner game.
Jacksonville Had Other Benefits
With 486 yards, Kansas City's offense was dominant against the Jaguar defense.
The Chiefs ended the game inside Jacksonville's 30. So they were on their way to scoring more points as the game ended.
Their offense was so successful despite its turnovers and despite key absences.
For the second half, the Chiefs missed their second-leading pass-catcher, JuJu Smith-Schuster, who exited the game with a concussion. He is going to be amped-up to get revenge on Jaguar safety Andre Cisco.
Fellow wide receiver Mecole Hardman was also absent, whereas Jacksonville was healthy.
Wide receiver Kadarius Toney was also still just a recent acquisition, being worked into the Chief offense.
In sum, Kansas City played somewhat handicapped offensively and was unusually sloppy and lackadaisical.
Nonetheless, the Chiefs led 20-0 and were close to building on their 27-17 lead.
Is Jacksonville Better Now?
One might say that the Jaguars are better since that game in view of their improved record -- the loss to Kansas City dropped them to 3-7. and they finished the regular season 9-8.
But they benefitted from facing Raven, Titan, Jet, Texan, and again Titan offenses limited by poor quarterback play -- Titan Ryan Tannehill ranks among the worst starters in terms of passer rating; the Jets' Zach Wilson looks like a bust; and those other quarterbacks Jacksonville faced surely won't be starting next season.
Three of those teams rank bottom-five in scoring offense.
On the flip side, they've faced three teams that rank in the upper half in scoring offense, and all of those teams scored 30 or more points against them: Detroit scored 40; Dallas scored 34; the Chargers scored 30.
Kansas City, with its top-ranked scoring offense, scored 27 points against the Jags; but, with its increased health and with less sloppiness, Kansas City is primed to reach 40 points and to exceed that number if Jacksonville turns it over.
Top Pass-Catchers vs. Jacksonville
The statistically best wide receivers and tight ends -- as measured by receptions -- have thrived downfield played well above their average against Jacksonville.
These pass-catchers are Raider Davante Adams, Colt Michael Pittman, Cowboy CeeDee Lamb, and Lion Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Jacksonville allowed the most points to teams featuring such a high-level wide receiver.
Held back by subpar quarterback play, Las Vegas failed to exceed 30 points, although the Colts did exceed 30 when Pittman played.
In addition to having obviously the best quarterback, the Chiefs have an elite tight end in Travis Kelce who caught six of seven targets for 81 yards.
With Kansas City's leading wide receiver Smith-Schuster healthy, Jacksonville won't be able to worry too much about Kelce.
Kelce should be more involved this time around against a Jaguar secondary that lacks the ability to contain him and that almost entirely failed to stop him when Mahomes threw him the ball.
Jacksonville allows the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends, and the Chiefs have the NFL's top tight end who ranks third in receptions.
Also, the Jags allow the second-most yards per game to running backs, and the Chiefs have an excellent pass-catching running back in Jerick McKinnon, who has 56 receptions for 512 yards on the season.
Running the Ball
Despite centering its offense on its elite pass attack, Kansas City accrued 155 rushing yards on 27 rush attempts against the Jags.
Isiah Pacheco is characteristically physical and tough to bring down.
But the Chief rush attack is especially tough to stop because of its ability to use wide receivers like the speedy Toney to attack the edges.
Using these alternative weapons plus the scrambling ability of Mahomes will keep Jacksonville's run defense much more honest than it has had to be in recent weeks.
Can Jacksonville Keep Pace?
In every rematch this season, Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence was worse than in the first game.
The one exception is the Houston rematch because Lawrence was so atrocious in the first game.
In the rematch, his passer rating was an awful 77.0.
Most recently, the Charger defense modeled a great gameplan against Lawrence.
After allowing him to make easy throws in the first game, the Chargers applied significant pressure and had their defensive backs crash down on wide receiver routes in order to take away Lawrence's favored short and intermediate passing game in the rematch.
Expect Kansas City's defense to challenge Lawrence with similar adjustments.
Both Chief cornerbacks are yielding a passer rating below 87.
They are supported by a pass rush featuring Chris Jones with his 15.5 sacks.
As evident most recently, Lawrence is flummoxed by pressure, and, with Jones, Kansas City is one of the best teams at applying pressure.
Key Circumstances
Chief head coach Andy Reid is famously good after a bye week, so this is a good spot for his team.
After watching last week's Jaguar game, Reid will be sure to have his team keep the foot on the gas pedal.
Parlay Verdict
Kansas City's continual scoring and added scoring from Lawrence-led Jacksonville against a Chief defense that tends to let even subpar offenses reach 20 points will ensure that the game flies "over."
