Broncos vs Jaguars Week 4 NFL Odds & Predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Denver Broncos (0-3)
When/Where: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET at Mile High Stadium
Odds: Broncos -3, O/U 39
TV: CBS
One tendency that may deceive bettors is that the Jaguars do poorly against AFC West teams. It’s verifiably true that Jacksonville is worth fading in West Coast games. But Denver is not far enough west to be included in this trend. In fact, the Jaguars have covered the spread in their last three games in Denver.
Another trend is that Bronco quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown no touchdowns to two interceptions both of the times that he faced Jacksonville since 2016, which was Jaguar corner Jalen Ramsey’s rookie year. Ramsey is elite, being one of three cornerbacks to have allowed a sub-80 passer rating when targeted in each year since 2016.
Flacco lacks the arm talent or the help at wide receiver to succeed against the league’s better defenses. So far this year, he hasn’t shown many positives, producing a passer rating of 75.8 against Green Bay, 83.1 against Chicago, and a superficial comeback attempt against Oakland boosted his rating to 105.3 in that game.
His top wide receivers will be outmatched. Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton both possess sufficient raw physical ability as calculated by metrics like burst score, which measures explosiveness, and agility. But they haven’t developed much of a skill set, such as that required to run crisp routes or otherwise get open.
So, although they cover more ground and jump higher than the average wide receiver, Sanders only ranks 30th in cushion gained from his defending cornerback while Sutton ranks 49th in the category.
Both receivers will be blanketed by Pro Bowl corners A.J. Buoye and Jalen Ramsey, both of whom are equipped to handle an opponent’s primary receiver, which Denver truly lacks. For now, it looks like Ramsey will remain in Jacksonville and he'll report to practice after actually being sick.
Sacksonville made its reappearance with a nine-sack performance last Thursday night against Tennessee and it’s primed to feast on Denver’s seventh-worst pass protection based on adjusted sack rate allowed. Flacco is a statue. He lacks the mobility to evade Jacksonville’s sundry proven pass rushers who currently top the league in adjusted sack rate.
With Flacco struggling, a mediocre Bronco running game that ranks 22nd in YPC will face too much responsibility.
For Jacksonville, quarterback Gardner Minshew is taking the league by storm. In every game he puts his pinpoint accuracy on display.
On pass attempts of 10 or more yards, he’s currently 16-of-23 for 352 yards, five touchdowns, and a 151.7 passer rating. He’s averaging close to 30 pass attempts per game (he didn’t start Week 1) and is performing so well while Jacksonville’s run game remains absent.
Even if Bronco lockdown corner Chris Harris makes life difficult for whomever he covers, presumably Minshew’s top target DJ Chark, Jacksonville still owns reliable depth at wide receiver. Chris Conley has stepped up as Minshew’s second-favorite target and he’s right behind Chark in yards and receptions.
With Bryce Callahan struggling to recover from a foot injury, the Broncos have been suffering a crisis for depth at the cornerback position. Since Denver’s season opener, Isaac Yiadom has been picked apart by opposing cornerbacks.
Early into his last game against Green Bay, Yiadom was benched and former AFA (American Football Alliance) cornerback De’Vante Bausby took his place. Bausby had played for Chicago in 2016 and Philadelphia in 2018, only lasting a season with each team.
Minshew should have plenty of time to throw as long as Denver’s pass rush continues to struggle under its new coaching staff. The Broncos — Von Miller and Bradley Chubb among them-- have zero sacks so far.
Picks: Jaguars +3 & Under 39
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Denver Broncos (0-3)
When/Where: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET at Mile High Stadium
Odds: Broncos -3, O/U 39
TV: CBS
One tendency that may deceive bettors is that the Jaguars do poorly against AFC West teams. It’s verifiably true that Jacksonville is worth fading in West Coast games. But Denver is not far enough west to be included in this trend. In fact, the Jaguars have covered the spread in their last three games in Denver.
Another trend is that Bronco quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown no touchdowns to two interceptions both of the times that he faced Jacksonville since 2016, which was Jaguar corner Jalen Ramsey’s rookie year. Ramsey is elite, being one of three cornerbacks to have allowed a sub-80 passer rating when targeted in each year since 2016.
Flacco lacks the arm talent or the help at wide receiver to succeed against the league’s better defenses. So far this year, he hasn’t shown many positives, producing a passer rating of 75.8 against Green Bay, 83.1 against Chicago, and a superficial comeback attempt against Oakland boosted his rating to 105.3 in that game.
His top wide receivers will be outmatched. Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton both possess sufficient raw physical ability as calculated by metrics like burst score, which measures explosiveness, and agility. But they haven’t developed much of a skill set, such as that required to run crisp routes or otherwise get open.
So, although they cover more ground and jump higher than the average wide receiver, Sanders only ranks 30th in cushion gained from his defending cornerback while Sutton ranks 49th in the category.
Both receivers will be blanketed by Pro Bowl corners A.J. Buoye and Jalen Ramsey, both of whom are equipped to handle an opponent’s primary receiver, which Denver truly lacks. For now, it looks like Ramsey will remain in Jacksonville and he'll report to practice after actually being sick.
Sacksonville made its reappearance with a nine-sack performance last Thursday night against Tennessee and it’s primed to feast on Denver’s seventh-worst pass protection based on adjusted sack rate allowed. Flacco is a statue. He lacks the mobility to evade Jacksonville’s sundry proven pass rushers who currently top the league in adjusted sack rate.
With Flacco struggling, a mediocre Bronco running game that ranks 22nd in YPC will face too much responsibility.
For Jacksonville, quarterback Gardner Minshew is taking the league by storm. In every game he puts his pinpoint accuracy on display.
On pass attempts of 10 or more yards, he’s currently 16-of-23 for 352 yards, five touchdowns, and a 151.7 passer rating. He’s averaging close to 30 pass attempts per game (he didn’t start Week 1) and is performing so well while Jacksonville’s run game remains absent.
Even if Bronco lockdown corner Chris Harris makes life difficult for whomever he covers, presumably Minshew’s top target DJ Chark, Jacksonville still owns reliable depth at wide receiver. Chris Conley has stepped up as Minshew’s second-favorite target and he’s right behind Chark in yards and receptions.
With Bryce Callahan struggling to recover from a foot injury, the Broncos have been suffering a crisis for depth at the cornerback position. Since Denver’s season opener, Isaac Yiadom has been picked apart by opposing cornerbacks.
Early into his last game against Green Bay, Yiadom was benched and former AFA (American Football Alliance) cornerback De’Vante Bausby took his place. Bausby had played for Chicago in 2016 and Philadelphia in 2018, only lasting a season with each team.
Minshew should have plenty of time to throw as long as Denver’s pass rush continues to struggle under its new coaching staff. The Broncos — Von Miller and Bradley Chubb among them-- have zero sacks so far.
Picks: Jaguars +3 & Under 39
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