Jaguars Season Win Total: NFL Best Bets
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under 4.5 Wins
Last Year’s Offense
Offensively, Jacksonville was on the lower end of the quality spectrum last year. The Jags ranked 26th in points per game and 20th in yards per game.
Kansas City in a blowout loss, Denver, early in its season with unacclimated first-year Head Coach Vic Fangio, the Jets, the Bengals, and the Colts in the last game of the season are the only teams against which Jacksonville exceeded 20 points.
Key Loss
On August 31, Jacksonville made a move that shocked many and released running back Leonard Fournette.
Some Jaguars fans are not unjustifiably bitter about Jacksonville investing so heavily in him in the NFL Draft. They will tell you that they are relieved that this move happened and that the Jaguars will be better off without him.
In the long-run, this will absolutely be true. He was a selfish player, not a team-first guy.
Mainly, his departure was required as a final act of separation from the physical, Tom Coughlin vision.
Coughlin’s vision has been replaced by Jay Gruden’s more versatile offense, which will feature more jet sweeps, wildcat formations, and pass-catching running backs.
But there is no way to reasonably doubt that Fournette’s loss creates a major downgrade at the running back position relative to last year.
He was easily the team’s leading and most productive rusher as well as the team's number one back. He attempted 230 more rushes than the next running back.
While his numbers weren’t incredible, one must remember how poor his offensive line was — it ranked towards the very bottom in most run-blocking metrics.
Fournette was still a playmaker with his physicality and improved agility. It’s hard to imagine Jacksonville slipping past Denver, for example, without his 200+ rushing yards.
Jacksonville’s leading returning rusher is Ryquell Armstead, who barely eclipsed 100 yards on 3.1 YPC. Chris Thompson, who averaged 3.7 YPC as a Redskin last year, looks to add some positive value to the position.
Pass Attack
Fournette’s absence will have ripple effects towards the rest of the offense because of the attention he demanded from opposing defenses.
Ever since his arrival on the team, he had to deal with defenses crowding the line of scrimmage with eight-man boxes.
Now, second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew becomes the new focus for defenses to key in on.
Minshew had a wonderful start to his rookie season which he combined with his charisma and his cool mustache to generate a hype called Minshew Mania.
But the reality is that defenses made adjustments for the former sixth-round pick out of Washington State.
In terms of passer rating, Mustache Minshew never had another month that remotely resembled the one that he did in September.
Again, the offensive line is back in full „force.“ Help is needed especially to protect Minshew’s blind side because left tackle Cam Robinson allowed the sixth-most pressures in the NFL.
Nick Foles never really worked in Jacksonville largely because he didn’t have a chance behind this protection unit.
While Minshew can run around and make plays that a purer pocket passer like Foles can’t make, he is liable to getting hit and vulnerable to fumbling. Maintaining Minshew’s health will be difficult but crucial.
Defensive Regression
The regression of Jacksonville’s defense from being championship-caliber in 2017 to a defense that ranked 25th in opposing yards per game has been a regular source of debate.
Is this regression owing to the loss of talent from the 2017 roster or to the fact that opposing offenses have figured out how to succeed against simplistic defensive coordinator Todd Wash?
I don’t think we’ll ever find out because, in addition to Wash somehow still having his job, the talent on defense continues to deteriorate.
Front Seven
After losing both Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, Jacksonville no longer possesses any of the pass rushers who gave the team its erstwhile nickname, „Sacksonville.“
Last year, both defensive ends combined for 14.5 sacks. Without them, Josh Allen becomes the only force left who offenses can consider dangerous and explosive.
Surely, opposing game plans will focus on protecting its quarterback from Allen since he is the defense’s top playmaker.
Marcell Dareus is a significant loss for a paltry run defense that has made itself famous for letting Titans running back Derrick Henry running all over it. Last year, the Jags ranked 28th in opposing rush yards per game.
Dareus’ absence means a lessened ability for the tackle position to shed blocks. The team had a huge problem controlling the line of scrimmage and eliminating gaps in the opponent’s rush attack.
Jacksonville’s weakness in its defensive line was exacerbated by the fact that Myles Jack was playing middle linebacker. He was not mentally equipped for the position.
While the Jaguars signed Joe Schobert in order to have a real middle linebacker, he will be far from a savior.
In Cleveland, he benefitted from having superb defensive linemen and his performance regressed when those superb defensive linemen were absent.
The Secondary
Collectively, the pass unit last year ranked 21st in opposing quarterback rating.
Without Ngakoue, this year's pass rush becomes so reliant on Josh Allen. If he is not able to overcome the opposing protection unit’s concentration on containing him, then the secondary will be left on an island.
Jalen Ramsey left last year and now A.J. Bouye is gone, too.
Based on opposing passer rating, Tre Herndon performed superbly in phases of the season as did DJ Hayden at nickel.
It will be interesting to see how they respond to the vacuum created by Ramsey and Bouye leaving. But talent-wise, they do not compare to the departed duo, both of whom were Pro Bowlers.
Rookie CJ Henderson will have to step up immediately. He is going to have to handle the pressure of being compared with Ramsey who was likewise a first-round selection for the Jags.
I love Henderson in the long run, strictly against the pass, with his physical combination of length and speed and his coverage skills outside of press.
It’s worth noting how insecure Herndon’s tackling was. Henderson showed the same weakness in college. They will hurt the secondary’s ability to provide desperately needed run support.
Todd Wash likes to play a funnel defense that goads the offense into making short passes. For this to work, tackling is crucial. From the first game of the season, this tackling was sorely absent on all levels of the defense. Yet Jacksonville has done very little to address this weakness with much faith being placed in unproven youth.
Coach
After the locker room, team-related issues that Jacksonville exhibited conspicuously, I wonder how Doug Marrone still has his job as Jacksonville’s head coach.
While, in 2016-2017, he lived up this reputation as a coach who’s great at turning teams around, he is following his characteristic pattern of regression.
On top of some awful decision-making in terms of his coaching staff, personnel, and play-calling, his continued presence represents a further disadvantage for the Jaguars.
Schedule
Can Jacksonville beat at least five teams on its schedule?
Commonly, Jacksonville’s beatable opponents are cited as the Dolphins, Bengals, and Lions.
I strongly disagree with Detroit being on this list.
Detroit distinguishes itself offensively especially with quarterback Matt Stafford who ranked among league leaders in passing yards and passing touchdowns per game before his injury.
With Stafford back along with Detroit's surplus of tough-to-tackle running backs, now including the more versatile D’Andre Swift, its usual, accomplished pass-catching group, and higher-ranked offensive line play, Detroit possesses way more firepower on offense than Jacksonville.
Just for argument’s sake, I will grant the Dolphins and Bengals, although Cincinnati’s offensive weapons in Joe Mixon and A.J. Green and Miami’s elite secondary won’t allow them to be easy wins.
I think that, immediately, we can eliminate Tennessee (x2), Indianapolis (x2), Houston (x2), the Chargers, Packers, Steelers, Browns, Vikings, Ravens, and Bears.
Although, I don’t find it unrealistic for Jacksonville to steal one from Houston especially if J.J. Watt, in his increasing age, suffers health-wise. The defensive line depends too much on him now.
Ranking 26th in opposing passer rating, Houston's secondary isn’t built to perform any better this year.
Offensively, Houston lost a crucial weapon in D’Andre Hopkins, although Brandin Cooks is probably underrated and will help replace him somewhat.
Maybe, too, Indianapolis can be beaten once if Philip Rivers replicates last year’s awful performance.
Even with two division wins and while simply assuming that the Jaguars beat both Miami and Cincinnati, we still only have four wins.
Best Bet: Jaguars Under 4.5 Wins (-125) with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under 4.5 Wins
Last Year’s Offense
Offensively, Jacksonville was on the lower end of the quality spectrum last year. The Jags ranked 26th in points per game and 20th in yards per game.
Kansas City in a blowout loss, Denver, early in its season with unacclimated first-year Head Coach Vic Fangio, the Jets, the Bengals, and the Colts in the last game of the season are the only teams against which Jacksonville exceeded 20 points.
Key Loss
On August 31, Jacksonville made a move that shocked many and released running back Leonard Fournette.
Some Jaguars fans are not unjustifiably bitter about Jacksonville investing so heavily in him in the NFL Draft. They will tell you that they are relieved that this move happened and that the Jaguars will be better off without him.
In the long-run, this will absolutely be true. He was a selfish player, not a team-first guy.
Mainly, his departure was required as a final act of separation from the physical, Tom Coughlin vision.
Coughlin’s vision has been replaced by Jay Gruden’s more versatile offense, which will feature more jet sweeps, wildcat formations, and pass-catching running backs.
But there is no way to reasonably doubt that Fournette’s loss creates a major downgrade at the running back position relative to last year.
He was easily the team’s leading and most productive rusher as well as the team's number one back. He attempted 230 more rushes than the next running back.
While his numbers weren’t incredible, one must remember how poor his offensive line was — it ranked towards the very bottom in most run-blocking metrics.
Fournette was still a playmaker with his physicality and improved agility. It’s hard to imagine Jacksonville slipping past Denver, for example, without his 200+ rushing yards.
Jacksonville’s leading returning rusher is Ryquell Armstead, who barely eclipsed 100 yards on 3.1 YPC. Chris Thompson, who averaged 3.7 YPC as a Redskin last year, looks to add some positive value to the position.
Pass Attack
Fournette’s absence will have ripple effects towards the rest of the offense because of the attention he demanded from opposing defenses.
Ever since his arrival on the team, he had to deal with defenses crowding the line of scrimmage with eight-man boxes.
Now, second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew becomes the new focus for defenses to key in on.
Minshew had a wonderful start to his rookie season which he combined with his charisma and his cool mustache to generate a hype called Minshew Mania.
But the reality is that defenses made adjustments for the former sixth-round pick out of Washington State.
In terms of passer rating, Mustache Minshew never had another month that remotely resembled the one that he did in September.
Again, the offensive line is back in full „force.“ Help is needed especially to protect Minshew’s blind side because left tackle Cam Robinson allowed the sixth-most pressures in the NFL.
Nick Foles never really worked in Jacksonville largely because he didn’t have a chance behind this protection unit.
While Minshew can run around and make plays that a purer pocket passer like Foles can’t make, he is liable to getting hit and vulnerable to fumbling. Maintaining Minshew’s health will be difficult but crucial.
Defensive Regression
The regression of Jacksonville’s defense from being championship-caliber in 2017 to a defense that ranked 25th in opposing yards per game has been a regular source of debate.
Is this regression owing to the loss of talent from the 2017 roster or to the fact that opposing offenses have figured out how to succeed against simplistic defensive coordinator Todd Wash?
I don’t think we’ll ever find out because, in addition to Wash somehow still having his job, the talent on defense continues to deteriorate.
Front Seven
After losing both Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, Jacksonville no longer possesses any of the pass rushers who gave the team its erstwhile nickname, „Sacksonville.“
Last year, both defensive ends combined for 14.5 sacks. Without them, Josh Allen becomes the only force left who offenses can consider dangerous and explosive.
Surely, opposing game plans will focus on protecting its quarterback from Allen since he is the defense’s top playmaker.
Marcell Dareus is a significant loss for a paltry run defense that has made itself famous for letting Titans running back Derrick Henry running all over it. Last year, the Jags ranked 28th in opposing rush yards per game.
Dareus’ absence means a lessened ability for the tackle position to shed blocks. The team had a huge problem controlling the line of scrimmage and eliminating gaps in the opponent’s rush attack.
Jacksonville’s weakness in its defensive line was exacerbated by the fact that Myles Jack was playing middle linebacker. He was not mentally equipped for the position.
While the Jaguars signed Joe Schobert in order to have a real middle linebacker, he will be far from a savior.
In Cleveland, he benefitted from having superb defensive linemen and his performance regressed when those superb defensive linemen were absent.
The Secondary
Collectively, the pass unit last year ranked 21st in opposing quarterback rating.
Without Ngakoue, this year's pass rush becomes so reliant on Josh Allen. If he is not able to overcome the opposing protection unit’s concentration on containing him, then the secondary will be left on an island.
Jalen Ramsey left last year and now A.J. Bouye is gone, too.
Based on opposing passer rating, Tre Herndon performed superbly in phases of the season as did DJ Hayden at nickel.
It will be interesting to see how they respond to the vacuum created by Ramsey and Bouye leaving. But talent-wise, they do not compare to the departed duo, both of whom were Pro Bowlers.
Rookie CJ Henderson will have to step up immediately. He is going to have to handle the pressure of being compared with Ramsey who was likewise a first-round selection for the Jags.
I love Henderson in the long run, strictly against the pass, with his physical combination of length and speed and his coverage skills outside of press.
It’s worth noting how insecure Herndon’s tackling was. Henderson showed the same weakness in college. They will hurt the secondary’s ability to provide desperately needed run support.
Todd Wash likes to play a funnel defense that goads the offense into making short passes. For this to work, tackling is crucial. From the first game of the season, this tackling was sorely absent on all levels of the defense. Yet Jacksonville has done very little to address this weakness with much faith being placed in unproven youth.
Coach
After the locker room, team-related issues that Jacksonville exhibited conspicuously, I wonder how Doug Marrone still has his job as Jacksonville’s head coach.
While, in 2016-2017, he lived up this reputation as a coach who’s great at turning teams around, he is following his characteristic pattern of regression.
On top of some awful decision-making in terms of his coaching staff, personnel, and play-calling, his continued presence represents a further disadvantage for the Jaguars.
Schedule
Can Jacksonville beat at least five teams on its schedule?
Commonly, Jacksonville’s beatable opponents are cited as the Dolphins, Bengals, and Lions.
I strongly disagree with Detroit being on this list.
Detroit distinguishes itself offensively especially with quarterback Matt Stafford who ranked among league leaders in passing yards and passing touchdowns per game before his injury.
With Stafford back along with Detroit's surplus of tough-to-tackle running backs, now including the more versatile D’Andre Swift, its usual, accomplished pass-catching group, and higher-ranked offensive line play, Detroit possesses way more firepower on offense than Jacksonville.
Just for argument’s sake, I will grant the Dolphins and Bengals, although Cincinnati’s offensive weapons in Joe Mixon and A.J. Green and Miami’s elite secondary won’t allow them to be easy wins.
I think that, immediately, we can eliminate Tennessee (x2), Indianapolis (x2), Houston (x2), the Chargers, Packers, Steelers, Browns, Vikings, Ravens, and Bears.
Although, I don’t find it unrealistic for Jacksonville to steal one from Houston especially if J.J. Watt, in his increasing age, suffers health-wise. The defensive line depends too much on him now.
Ranking 26th in opposing passer rating, Houston's secondary isn’t built to perform any better this year.
Offensively, Houston lost a crucial weapon in D’Andre Hopkins, although Brandin Cooks is probably underrated and will help replace him somewhat.
Maybe, too, Indianapolis can be beaten once if Philip Rivers replicates last year’s awful performance.
Even with two division wins and while simply assuming that the Jaguars beat both Miami and Cincinnati, we still only have four wins.
Best Bet: Jaguars Under 4.5 Wins (-125) with BetOnline
