NFL Parlay for Sunday’s Games at 264 Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Jake Luton & DJ Chark
Part of the reason why I liked Jaguar quarterback Jake Luton last week was that he brought an element of surprise with him.
Now that he’s made an NFL start and now that there is film on him, this element of surprise has dissipated.
In particular, it’s well-known that he distinguishes himself from former starter Gardner Minshew in the following way: Luton has a strong arm and the Jaguars want to make use of that strong arm.
One piece of evidence for this distinction is the fact that wide receiver DJ Chark enjoyed his longest play of the season in Luton’s start.
Chark, also, had his best game of the season, accumulating 146 yards on seven receptions plus a touchdown. He had almost 100 more yards than the next-leading Jaguar wide receiver.
The former LSU Tiger makes perfect sense as a deep target for Luton because of his speed, which allows him to get open downfield with relative ease.
So expect the Packer defense, after reviewing Luton’s only start, to be aware of and account for Luton’s deep ball and the threat posed by Chark.
Jaire Alexander vs. Chark
Now, I do not mean to infer from one game that Luton is reliant on Chark.
But it is true that Chark is Jacksonville’s top wide receiver. He leads the team in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns despite playing in one fewer game.
As such, his success is critical to the offense’s success. When Chark accrues fewer than 50 receiving yards, the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS. This includes the 30-13 loss against Miami where Chark did not play.
In the one exception, against Indianapolis, Jacksonville accrued 17 points off three drives that went fewer than 30 yards. It scored 27 points despite accruing a meager 241 yards.
To put 241 yards of offense in perspective, the Jets rank last-place in totaling 266 yards of offense per game. So without productivity from Chark, the Jaguars bring a more-or-less league-worst offense.
I think that Chark will struggle because Green Bay’s top corner Jaire Alexander is going to contain him.
Alexander has not been burned all year largely because he, too, is very fast. His 40-yard dash time is 4.38.
His opposing completion rate when targeted is 57.1 percent and his opposing passer rating when targeted is 68.3.
Packers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
It may seem like the spread posted by oddsmakers is too high.
But consider that the Packers have scored 30+ points in six different games.
Likewise, the Jaguars have given up 30+ points in six different games.
I foresee the Packers scoring upwards of 40 points while Jacksonville struggles to reach 20 points. So I expect the Packers to cover the spread by at least a touchdown.
The only opponent against which Aaron Rodgers failed to eclipse a passer rating of 100 is Tampa Bay, whose pass defense is second-best according to metrics that account for opponent quality.
In turn, Jacksonville owns the last-ranked pass defense according to those metrics.
Its top three cornerbacks each allow a passer rating of over 100 when targeted.
Top cornerback CJ Henderson, a rookie, will have his hands full with three-time Pro Bowler Davante Adams, who promises to replicate last week’s 172-yard receiving effort.
A finally heathy Aaron Jones, who’s averaging five YPC and is a potent threat as a pass-catcher, will keep the Jaguar defense honest.
Jacksonville’s ineptitude at defensive tackle, with draft bust Taven Bryan embarrassing himself in his last days as a starter, will secure the ability of Green Bay’s ground game to gash an overtaxed linebacking crew.
Warning
I am assuming that Alexander will play. He is in the concussion protocol. But I have particular optimism in his clearance because his last game was on Thursday night.
So he’ll have three extra days to recover. Feel free to check the injury report in the upcoming days to make sure that Alexander is fit.
You won’t need to worry about placing this bet soon. NFL bettors are showing faith in the Jaguars after they easily covered the spread in Luton’s first start.
If Alexander is not fit, simply bet the “over” because Chark would have a great day without a challenge from Alexander.
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Kyler Murray
Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has a solid handle on limiting opposing mobile quarterbacks.
Recently, he provided proof of this handle when the Bills limited Lamar Jackson last year to one of his most lackluster performances of an otherwise amazing season. For example, the rushing average that he accrued in that game was his second-lowest on the season.
This year, the Bills held Russell Wilson in check until it was 41-20 in the fourth quarter where Wilson accumulated meaningless stats as the Bills took their foot off the gas pedal with the victory in hand.
It’s true that they lost to the Chiefs. Despite a boring output from Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs were still able to beat Buffalo by thriving on the ground. But Arizona won’t replicate that success with its 23rd-ranked run-blocking unit.
I also dislike Cardinal quarterback Kyler Murray because he is relatively mistake-prone. He has thrown two more interceptions than his Buffalo quarterback despite attempting 36 fewer passes.
Josh Allen
Buffalo’s quarterback is well-tested against top-10 pass defenses — Arizona’s ranks 11th according to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics.
He only becomes unreliable in big games against well-established playoff candidates like Kansas City and Tennessee. Arizona certainly doesn’t belong in this category of teams.
The Rams and Dolphins rank slightly better than Arizona in pass defense. Allen easily eclipsed 300 passing yards and surpassed a passer rating of 120 in both games.
Facing elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey posed no problem, either.
But Allen doesn’t deserve all the credit. He benefits from an offense that possesses excellent depth at wide receiver and that will spread opponents out with four wide receiver formations.
Cornerback is a position where Arizona doesn’t have the greatest depth. So Buffalo will take advantage with multiple formidable wide receivers, which help the team own the NFL’s seventh-highest average of passing yards per game.
Expect Allen to outpace Murray. It does not make sense to make the Bills an underdog especially for the above reasons.
Best Bet: Parlay Packers -13 at -110 & Bills +2.5 at -110 at +264 odds with Bookmaker
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX) at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Jake Luton & DJ Chark
Part of the reason why I liked Jaguar quarterback Jake Luton last week was that he brought an element of surprise with him.
Now that he’s made an NFL start and now that there is film on him, this element of surprise has dissipated.
In particular, it’s well-known that he distinguishes himself from former starter Gardner Minshew in the following way: Luton has a strong arm and the Jaguars want to make use of that strong arm.
One piece of evidence for this distinction is the fact that wide receiver DJ Chark enjoyed his longest play of the season in Luton’s start.
Chark, also, had his best game of the season, accumulating 146 yards on seven receptions plus a touchdown. He had almost 100 more yards than the next-leading Jaguar wide receiver.
The former LSU Tiger makes perfect sense as a deep target for Luton because of his speed, which allows him to get open downfield with relative ease.
So expect the Packer defense, after reviewing Luton’s only start, to be aware of and account for Luton’s deep ball and the threat posed by Chark.
Jaire Alexander vs. Chark
Now, I do not mean to infer from one game that Luton is reliant on Chark.
But it is true that Chark is Jacksonville’s top wide receiver. He leads the team in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns despite playing in one fewer game.
As such, his success is critical to the offense’s success. When Chark accrues fewer than 50 receiving yards, the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS. This includes the 30-13 loss against Miami where Chark did not play.
In the one exception, against Indianapolis, Jacksonville accrued 17 points off three drives that went fewer than 30 yards. It scored 27 points despite accruing a meager 241 yards.
To put 241 yards of offense in perspective, the Jets rank last-place in totaling 266 yards of offense per game. So without productivity from Chark, the Jaguars bring a more-or-less league-worst offense.
I think that Chark will struggle because Green Bay’s top corner Jaire Alexander is going to contain him.
Alexander has not been burned all year largely because he, too, is very fast. His 40-yard dash time is 4.38.
His opposing completion rate when targeted is 57.1 percent and his opposing passer rating when targeted is 68.3.
Packers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
It may seem like the spread posted by oddsmakers is too high.
But consider that the Packers have scored 30+ points in six different games.
Likewise, the Jaguars have given up 30+ points in six different games.
I foresee the Packers scoring upwards of 40 points while Jacksonville struggles to reach 20 points. So I expect the Packers to cover the spread by at least a touchdown.
The only opponent against which Aaron Rodgers failed to eclipse a passer rating of 100 is Tampa Bay, whose pass defense is second-best according to metrics that account for opponent quality.
In turn, Jacksonville owns the last-ranked pass defense according to those metrics.
Its top three cornerbacks each allow a passer rating of over 100 when targeted.
Top cornerback CJ Henderson, a rookie, will have his hands full with three-time Pro Bowler Davante Adams, who promises to replicate last week’s 172-yard receiving effort.
A finally heathy Aaron Jones, who’s averaging five YPC and is a potent threat as a pass-catcher, will keep the Jaguar defense honest.
Jacksonville’s ineptitude at defensive tackle, with draft bust Taven Bryan embarrassing himself in his last days as a starter, will secure the ability of Green Bay’s ground game to gash an overtaxed linebacking crew.
Warning
I am assuming that Alexander will play. He is in the concussion protocol. But I have particular optimism in his clearance because his last game was on Thursday night.
So he’ll have three extra days to recover. Feel free to check the injury report in the upcoming days to make sure that Alexander is fit.
You won’t need to worry about placing this bet soon. NFL bettors are showing faith in the Jaguars after they easily covered the spread in Luton’s first start.
If Alexander is not fit, simply bet the “over” because Chark would have a great day without a challenge from Alexander.
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Kyler Murray
Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has a solid handle on limiting opposing mobile quarterbacks.
Recently, he provided proof of this handle when the Bills limited Lamar Jackson last year to one of his most lackluster performances of an otherwise amazing season. For example, the rushing average that he accrued in that game was his second-lowest on the season.
This year, the Bills held Russell Wilson in check until it was 41-20 in the fourth quarter where Wilson accumulated meaningless stats as the Bills took their foot off the gas pedal with the victory in hand.
It’s true that they lost to the Chiefs. Despite a boring output from Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs were still able to beat Buffalo by thriving on the ground. But Arizona won’t replicate that success with its 23rd-ranked run-blocking unit.
I also dislike Cardinal quarterback Kyler Murray because he is relatively mistake-prone. He has thrown two more interceptions than his Buffalo quarterback despite attempting 36 fewer passes.
Josh Allen
Buffalo’s quarterback is well-tested against top-10 pass defenses — Arizona’s ranks 11th according to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics.
He only becomes unreliable in big games against well-established playoff candidates like Kansas City and Tennessee. Arizona certainly doesn’t belong in this category of teams.
The Rams and Dolphins rank slightly better than Arizona in pass defense. Allen easily eclipsed 300 passing yards and surpassed a passer rating of 120 in both games.
Facing elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey posed no problem, either.
But Allen doesn’t deserve all the credit. He benefits from an offense that possesses excellent depth at wide receiver and that will spread opponents out with four wide receiver formations.
Cornerback is a position where Arizona doesn’t have the greatest depth. So Buffalo will take advantage with multiple formidable wide receivers, which help the team own the NFL’s seventh-highest average of passing yards per game.
Expect Allen to outpace Murray. It does not make sense to make the Bills an underdog especially for the above reasons.
Best Bet: Parlay Packers -13 at -110 & Bills +2.5 at -110 at +264 odds with Bookmaker
