NFL Week 6 Parlay Features Revenge-Driven Colts and High-Scoring Jets and Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
Streaks
Much has been made of Indianapolis' inability to win in Jacksonville.
While the fact that Indianapolis repeatedly loses in Jacksonville seems to inform most people's perception of how this series in general tends to fare, this one tendency paints an incomplete picture.
Pertinently to this week's upcoming game, the Colts have won four straight home games against Jacksonville.
Indianapolis' success against Jacksonville at home is representative of the Jaguars' elongated inability to win especially AFC South games on the road.
The Jaguars have not beaten a division rival on the road since October 22, 2017 when the Jaguars were almost Super Bowl-bound and Indianapolis was en route to a 4-12 season.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce
One might want to resist the above line of thought by pointing out that the first meeting between these teams was not even close.
For Indianapolis, in particular, Matt Ryan struggled to get anything going.
He had what was by far his worst game of the season, as various stats show.
But he was disadvantaged in a significant respect: his two favorite wide receivers, team pass-catching leaders Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce did not play.
No matter the defensive quality, Ryan regularly amasses way more yards when both guys (or, frankly, either one) is playing.
Time to Throw
As evident in his average yards per attempt, Ryan has been compelled to throw shorter passes.
Lack of pass protection is a major reason why.
Jacksonville, though, has been one of the worst teams at mounting a pass rush away from home, as evident in its sack rate.
With more time in the pocket against a softer pass rush, Ryan can be more aggressive.
Last week, for example, he was the fourth-most aggressive quarterback according to Next Gen Stats as he enjoyed more time to throw.
Against the Jaguars, he'll have greater opportunity to go after his favorite passing targets.
Ryan's deep ball opportunities will be maximized by the struggles in deep pass coverage that Jacksonville's safeties have suffered since their season opener when Commander quarterback Carson Wentz repeatedly beat them over the top in their two-high safety looks.
Trevor Lawrence
While we should see an improved Colt offense, what this game will primarily come down to is the performance of Jacksonville's quarterback.
In Jacksonville's wins, Trevor Lawrence's passer rating exceeded 110.
Conversely, his passer rating remained below 90 in Jacksonville's three losses.
Colt Pass Defense
While Lawrence thrived against the Colts, this was an early Week 2 contest in which new Colt defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was still getting to know his players.
Every week, Bradley was allowing quarterbacks to be excellently and productively efficient.
But the Colt defense turned a corner, finally managing to limit the opposing quarterback's efficiency.
Indianapolis' success against the short-passing attack bodes extreme promise because Lawrence struggles with the deep ball whereas, if at all, he finds a rhythm in the shorter-passing game.
Furthermore, Zay Jones' injury issues aside, his top available wide receiver will have to deal with five-time Pro Bowler Stephon Gilmore.
New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay
The importance of New York's Run Defense
It feels odd to say, but New York will want to force Aaron Rodgers to drop back and pass the ball.
This season, Rodgers' productivity has been mediocre because his wide receivers are all the worse, collectively, after Davante Adams' departure.
But, play-action has constituted a saving grace for Rodgers, a major reason for the success that he has had.
Whereas he ranks 17thin passing yards, reflecting his general mediocrity, he ranks seventh in play-action completion percentage.
Running Backs vs. Jet Defense
I like Green Bay's offense this week especially because the Jets are vulnerable to opposing running backs.
Last week, New York faced Miami minus the latter's starting quarterback, yet Dolphin running back Raheem Mostert amassed 113 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC.
In a similar vein, for all of Pittsburgh's offensive woes, Najee Harris enjoyed his best game of the season in terms of YPC against the Jet defense.
The list continues, indicating New York's inability to limit opposing running backs even when the quarterback doesn't pose a threat.
Green Bay's Offense
But, of course, it's Aaron Rodgers, and he does pose a threat.
He has a superb option available to him in Aaron Jones.
Jones is averaging 6.4 YPC.
In Green Bay's lowest-scoring games, he failed to reach 50 rushing yards.
He'll easily exceed that total against New York's problematic run defense, which helps set up Rodgers' play-action passing game..
Green Bay's Passing Defense
In order to win, Green Bay will need to impede Jet quarterback Zach Wilson from achieving the efficient and productive outing as a passer that facilitated his team's 40-point output.
But Green Bay ranks 24that limiting the opponent's passer rating, allowing even the worst starting quarterbacks to succeed.
For the Patriots, third-string rookie Bailey Zappe enjoyed his best passer rating not against Detroit but against Green Bay.
Giant Daniel Jones, for example, has only exceeded 200 passing yards against one team.
This one team is Green Bay, and his passing helped the Giants achieve a 27-22 upset win.
Cornerback Jaire Alexander's return for the Packers didn't help them, although the Jets are anyhow well-stocked with wide receivers now in case Alexander does play well.
Bonus Consideration
Green Bay, moreover, is coming off a trip to London.
When teams play the following week -- Green Bay declined the NFL's offer to have a bye week after this international trip -- the opposing team total "over" is 6-1.
Best Bet: Parlay Colts -2 at -110 & Jets/Packers Over 45 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
Streaks
Much has been made of Indianapolis' inability to win in Jacksonville.
While the fact that Indianapolis repeatedly loses in Jacksonville seems to inform most people's perception of how this series in general tends to fare, this one tendency paints an incomplete picture.
Pertinently to this week's upcoming game, the Colts have won four straight home games against Jacksonville.
Indianapolis' success against Jacksonville at home is representative of the Jaguars' elongated inability to win especially AFC South games on the road.
The Jaguars have not beaten a division rival on the road since October 22, 2017 when the Jaguars were almost Super Bowl-bound and Indianapolis was en route to a 4-12 season.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce
One might want to resist the above line of thought by pointing out that the first meeting between these teams was not even close.
For Indianapolis, in particular, Matt Ryan struggled to get anything going.
He had what was by far his worst game of the season, as various stats show.
But he was disadvantaged in a significant respect: his two favorite wide receivers, team pass-catching leaders Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce did not play.
No matter the defensive quality, Ryan regularly amasses way more yards when both guys (or, frankly, either one) is playing.
Time to Throw
As evident in his average yards per attempt, Ryan has been compelled to throw shorter passes.
Lack of pass protection is a major reason why.
Jacksonville, though, has been one of the worst teams at mounting a pass rush away from home, as evident in its sack rate.
With more time in the pocket against a softer pass rush, Ryan can be more aggressive.
Last week, for example, he was the fourth-most aggressive quarterback according to Next Gen Stats as he enjoyed more time to throw.
Against the Jaguars, he'll have greater opportunity to go after his favorite passing targets.
Ryan's deep ball opportunities will be maximized by the struggles in deep pass coverage that Jacksonville's safeties have suffered since their season opener when Commander quarterback Carson Wentz repeatedly beat them over the top in their two-high safety looks.
Trevor Lawrence
While we should see an improved Colt offense, what this game will primarily come down to is the performance of Jacksonville's quarterback.
In Jacksonville's wins, Trevor Lawrence's passer rating exceeded 110.
Conversely, his passer rating remained below 90 in Jacksonville's three losses.
Colt Pass Defense
While Lawrence thrived against the Colts, this was an early Week 2 contest in which new Colt defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was still getting to know his players.
Every week, Bradley was allowing quarterbacks to be excellently and productively efficient.
But the Colt defense turned a corner, finally managing to limit the opposing quarterback's efficiency.
Indianapolis' success against the short-passing attack bodes extreme promise because Lawrence struggles with the deep ball whereas, if at all, he finds a rhythm in the shorter-passing game.
Furthermore, Zay Jones' injury issues aside, his top available wide receiver will have to deal with five-time Pro Bowler Stephon Gilmore.
New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay
The importance of New York's Run Defense
It feels odd to say, but New York will want to force Aaron Rodgers to drop back and pass the ball.
This season, Rodgers' productivity has been mediocre because his wide receivers are all the worse, collectively, after Davante Adams' departure.
But, play-action has constituted a saving grace for Rodgers, a major reason for the success that he has had.
Whereas he ranks 17thin passing yards, reflecting his general mediocrity, he ranks seventh in play-action completion percentage.
Running Backs vs. Jet Defense
I like Green Bay's offense this week especially because the Jets are vulnerable to opposing running backs.
Last week, New York faced Miami minus the latter's starting quarterback, yet Dolphin running back Raheem Mostert amassed 113 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC.
In a similar vein, for all of Pittsburgh's offensive woes, Najee Harris enjoyed his best game of the season in terms of YPC against the Jet defense.
The list continues, indicating New York's inability to limit opposing running backs even when the quarterback doesn't pose a threat.
Green Bay's Offense
But, of course, it's Aaron Rodgers, and he does pose a threat.
He has a superb option available to him in Aaron Jones.
Jones is averaging 6.4 YPC.
In Green Bay's lowest-scoring games, he failed to reach 50 rushing yards.
He'll easily exceed that total against New York's problematic run defense, which helps set up Rodgers' play-action passing game..
Green Bay's Passing Defense
In order to win, Green Bay will need to impede Jet quarterback Zach Wilson from achieving the efficient and productive outing as a passer that facilitated his team's 40-point output.
But Green Bay ranks 24that limiting the opponent's passer rating, allowing even the worst starting quarterbacks to succeed.
For the Patriots, third-string rookie Bailey Zappe enjoyed his best passer rating not against Detroit but against Green Bay.
Giant Daniel Jones, for example, has only exceeded 200 passing yards against one team.
This one team is Green Bay, and his passing helped the Giants achieve a 27-22 upset win.
Cornerback Jaire Alexander's return for the Packers didn't help them, although the Jets are anyhow well-stocked with wide receivers now in case Alexander does play well.
Bonus Consideration
Green Bay, moreover, is coming off a trip to London.
When teams play the following week -- Green Bay declined the NFL's offer to have a bye week after this international trip -- the opposing team total "over" is 6-1.
Best Bet: Parlay Colts -2 at -110 & Jets/Packers Over 45 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
