Jaguars vs. Lions NFL Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Lions to Outpace Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit
The Situation
Jacksonville is a young team learning to win games.
While the team is filled with potential on both sides of the ball, its youth ensures that grievous lows will counterbalance the impressive highs, because inconsistency is a part of being young.
So, while the Jaguars followed their annual home victory over Indianapolis with a dominating win against a reeling Charger squad whose top players were hurt, they followed the latter win by failing to cover the spread in Philadelphia.
The score in the Eagles' game -- Philly won 29-21 -- makes it look closer than it was. The Eagles outgained Jacksonville by close to 200 yards.
After Jacksonville won its next game -- 27-20 to the Raiders -- the Jaguars failed to cover the spread against an unusually sloppy and turnover-prone Chief team.
Winning games is just a rare event for Jacksonville -- close wins like the one over Baltimore are exceedingly rare.
The Jaguar defense has made struggling Commander quarterback Carson Wentz, aging Colt quarterback Matt Ryan, and suffering Bronco quarterback Russell Wilson look like high-caliber quarterbacks in the waning minutes of the game.
Make no mistakes, this is a Jacksonville team that ordinarily finds ways to lose.
The situation is negative for the Jags especially this week because, coming off an exciting upset win, a young team is liable to become overexcited and therefore ill-prepared for its following opponent.
Jacksonville, in other words, must come down to earth.
Detroit at Home
When Jacksonville previously came off wins, it got to face either decimated rosters or sloppy teams.
But we may expect Detroit's best version of itself on Sunday because the game takes place in Detroit.
The Lions are repeatedly competitive at home.
Even when they were suffering key injuries ahead of their game against upstart Seattle, they battled to remain within three points.
Despite playing playoff-caliber Philadelphia, Miami, and Buffalo at home, Detroit has not lost a home game by more than four points this season.
At home, the Lions have also upset Green Bay and handled the Commanders.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
When Lion wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown fails to get involved in the offense, trouble looms for Detroit.
It is no coincidence that the Lions failed to reach double digits in two games and that, in those two games, St. Brown combined for a total of 22 receiving yards.
Conversely, Detroit's highest scoring outputs generally coincide with St. Brown's highest target and receiving yardage totals.
The Lions are likelier to thrive offensively when they maximize St. Brown's involved in the offense.
Jaguar Cornerbacks vs. Top Wide Receivers
While there is a lot of promise in young cornerback Tyson Campbell among others, the Jaguar secondary lacks the ability right now to match up with the NFL's higher-caliber wide receivers.
Raider Davante Adams and Colt Michael Pittman both had season-best performances against Jacksonville.
What unites those two wide receivers with St. Brown is that all three wide receivers rank top-10 in receptions.
All three wide receivers excel at tracking and securing the ball in the air.
Sunday's game is one in which St. Brown will, with relative ease, secure an involved role in his team's offense.
D'Andre Swift
Exciting young Lion running back D'Andre Swift has been recovering from an injury that kept him from playing and limited his productivity when he returned.
Swift hasn't been an effective runner, although this isn't a problem with Jamaal Williams being sufficiently efficient and enjoying a nose for the end zone -- he has 13 rushing touchdowns so far.
The Lions don't rely on Swift's running, though.
They rely rather on his abilities as a receiver.
His recent involvement in the passing game attests to his current health status, which is all the less concerning in view of the fact that he gets to rest since playing on Thanksgiving.
In that Thanksgiving game, Swift accrued his second-highest reception total of the season (four).
Swift is a routinely effective pass-catcher, and this is a role that he will enjoy especially against the Jaguar defense.
Jacksonville allows the fourth-highest number of receptions and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs.
Jacksonville's Offensive Outlook
It is rather Jaguar running back Travis Etienne who is banged up.
Etienne left his team's last game with a sprained foot and did not return.
While he is listed as 'questionable,' it seems likely that he will play, although his bounce and explosiveness may be capped. His snap count may be lower than normal.
Last week, Etienne's absence did not matter, because Trevor Lawrence was generally on-point, especially during his heroic end-of-game touchdown drive and two-point conversion.
Lawrence has been solid against the league's lowest-ranking pass defenses -- Baltimore ranks 27thin pass defense, andhe was also maximally efficient, mistake-free, and productive in his team's win over Las Vegas' 26th-ranked pass defense.
The Lions, hurt all the more by the absence of injured defensive captain Tracy Walker, who quarterbacked their secondary, rank 29thin pass defense.
The Verdict
This will be a back-and-forth game in which both offenses achieve high scoring outputs especially as a result of their respective pass attack's positive outlooks.
Situationally, and being at home, and inexplicably being listed as the home underdog against losing team Jacksonville, Detroit has great value as the side.
Scoring Prediction: Jaguars 27 -- Lions 33
Best Bets: Lions +1.5 at -110 with Bookmaker & Over 51.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Ford Field in Detroit
The Situation
Jacksonville is a young team learning to win games.
While the team is filled with potential on both sides of the ball, its youth ensures that grievous lows will counterbalance the impressive highs, because inconsistency is a part of being young.
So, while the Jaguars followed their annual home victory over Indianapolis with a dominating win against a reeling Charger squad whose top players were hurt, they followed the latter win by failing to cover the spread in Philadelphia.
The score in the Eagles' game -- Philly won 29-21 -- makes it look closer than it was. The Eagles outgained Jacksonville by close to 200 yards.
After Jacksonville won its next game -- 27-20 to the Raiders -- the Jaguars failed to cover the spread against an unusually sloppy and turnover-prone Chief team.
Winning games is just a rare event for Jacksonville -- close wins like the one over Baltimore are exceedingly rare.
The Jaguar defense has made struggling Commander quarterback Carson Wentz, aging Colt quarterback Matt Ryan, and suffering Bronco quarterback Russell Wilson look like high-caliber quarterbacks in the waning minutes of the game.
Make no mistakes, this is a Jacksonville team that ordinarily finds ways to lose.
The situation is negative for the Jags especially this week because, coming off an exciting upset win, a young team is liable to become overexcited and therefore ill-prepared for its following opponent.
Jacksonville, in other words, must come down to earth.
Detroit at Home
When Jacksonville previously came off wins, it got to face either decimated rosters or sloppy teams.
But we may expect Detroit's best version of itself on Sunday because the game takes place in Detroit.
The Lions are repeatedly competitive at home.
Even when they were suffering key injuries ahead of their game against upstart Seattle, they battled to remain within three points.
Despite playing playoff-caliber Philadelphia, Miami, and Buffalo at home, Detroit has not lost a home game by more than four points this season.
At home, the Lions have also upset Green Bay and handled the Commanders.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
When Lion wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown fails to get involved in the offense, trouble looms for Detroit.
It is no coincidence that the Lions failed to reach double digits in two games and that, in those two games, St. Brown combined for a total of 22 receiving yards.
Conversely, Detroit's highest scoring outputs generally coincide with St. Brown's highest target and receiving yardage totals.
The Lions are likelier to thrive offensively when they maximize St. Brown's involved in the offense.
Jaguar Cornerbacks vs. Top Wide Receivers
While there is a lot of promise in young cornerback Tyson Campbell among others, the Jaguar secondary lacks the ability right now to match up with the NFL's higher-caliber wide receivers.
Raider Davante Adams and Colt Michael Pittman both had season-best performances against Jacksonville.
What unites those two wide receivers with St. Brown is that all three wide receivers rank top-10 in receptions.
All three wide receivers excel at tracking and securing the ball in the air.
Sunday's game is one in which St. Brown will, with relative ease, secure an involved role in his team's offense.
D'Andre Swift
Exciting young Lion running back D'Andre Swift has been recovering from an injury that kept him from playing and limited his productivity when he returned.
Swift hasn't been an effective runner, although this isn't a problem with Jamaal Williams being sufficiently efficient and enjoying a nose for the end zone -- he has 13 rushing touchdowns so far.
The Lions don't rely on Swift's running, though.
They rely rather on his abilities as a receiver.
His recent involvement in the passing game attests to his current health status, which is all the less concerning in view of the fact that he gets to rest since playing on Thanksgiving.
In that Thanksgiving game, Swift accrued his second-highest reception total of the season (four).
Swift is a routinely effective pass-catcher, and this is a role that he will enjoy especially against the Jaguar defense.
Jacksonville allows the fourth-highest number of receptions and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs.
Jacksonville's Offensive Outlook
It is rather Jaguar running back Travis Etienne who is banged up.
Etienne left his team's last game with a sprained foot and did not return.
While he is listed as 'questionable,' it seems likely that he will play, although his bounce and explosiveness may be capped. His snap count may be lower than normal.
Last week, Etienne's absence did not matter, because Trevor Lawrence was generally on-point, especially during his heroic end-of-game touchdown drive and two-point conversion.
Lawrence has been solid against the league's lowest-ranking pass defenses -- Baltimore ranks 27thin pass defense, andhe was also maximally efficient, mistake-free, and productive in his team's win over Las Vegas' 26th-ranked pass defense.
The Lions, hurt all the more by the absence of injured defensive captain Tracy Walker, who quarterbacked their secondary, rank 29thin pass defense.
The Verdict
This will be a back-and-forth game in which both offenses achieve high scoring outputs especially as a result of their respective pass attack's positive outlooks.
Situationally, and being at home, and inexplicably being listed as the home underdog against losing team Jacksonville, Detroit has great value as the side.
Scoring Prediction: Jaguars 27 -- Lions 33
Best Bets: Lions +1.5 at -110 with Bookmaker & Over 51.5 at -105 with BetOnline
