Jackson State vs. NC Central Preview Article

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Jackson State vs. NC Central Celebration Bowl Best Bets: Demoralized Jackson State Won't Cover Spread


Sportsbooks have released their odds for this year's rendition of the Celebration Bowl between Jackson State and NC Central.

Jackson State became a better and higher-profile team because it was coached by Deion Sanders, also known as Coach Prime.

Sanders didn't just lend the program a higher profile due to his celebrity status.

He donated portions of his salary to the football program, upgrading its facilities, and doing other things that made it a better place than before he arrived.

Of course, his celebrity status did matter, and Jackson State along with HBCUs in general generally became more known and more respected due to Coach Sanders' presence.

All of this does not simply mean that his departure is forgiven by the players.

It's an emotionally complex situation, one that we'll need to unravel because bowl games are well-known for coming down to player motivation and player morale.

NC Central will be a tough opponent largely because it has the unique advantage of not going through what Jackson State is going through right now.

I will talk more about this sort of conflict that Jackson State is experiencing when I explain why you should play both spread and total for this game.

Jackson State Tigers vs. North Carolina Central Eagles
Saturday, December 17, 2022 at noon ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta

Best Bet: Eagles +16.5 at -110 with BetOnline

Deion Sanders' Coaching Decision

You may have seen Coach Sanders on YouTube and in the news.

He's been doing a lot of things to prepare for the upcoming season in Colorado.

Some of these things include talking to players, recruiting, and beginning to make all of the various changes that he promised he'd make to the program.

While he's been busy engaging in these sundry different activities, there is one thing that he hasn't been doing: preparing his team to face NC Central.

Now, the Tigers are heavily favored and may thus be considered extremely likely to win their Bowl Game against the Eagles.

But we are talking about whether the Tigers will also cover the spread.

They are favored so heavily because of the success that they've enjoyed during Coach Prime's tenure.

It speaks against their chances of covering the spread, therefore, when the conditions of that success get removed.

One such condition was Coach Prime's focus on and devotion to Jackson State.

He will coach in the bowl game and, indeed for various reasons, I think this is a bad decision.

But one reason why it's a bad decision is that it is having him do too much.

It is hard enough to prepare a team for a bowl game when one has nothing else to do.

Sanders is trying to start the Colorado Buffaloes anew and thereby neglecting his coaching duties at Jackson State.

I get that he'll surely give a better pre-game speech than anybody else could, but there is no way that he's doing remotely as much as he normally could or should to prepare Jackson State for their bowl game.

Emotions

Will Tiger players even listen to him when he gives his pre-game speech?

Investigation into Tiger affairs suggests that players responded negatively in various senses to Sanders' departure.

Nobody is denying his grandiose contributions to the Jackson State football program.

But after all his rhetoric apparently intending to uplift HBCU's, his departure for a Power Five program might seem like a form of betrayal that contradicts the positive messages that he delivered about HBCU's and their profile.

Even if Tiger players don't feel betrayed, they must face the disappointment of his unexpected departure.

Emotionally, at least in this last respect, they resemble various other teams that struggled in their bowl games despite being favored because they had, during the course of the regular season, proven themselves to be the better team.

One such team that provides an analogy is Oregon after Willie Taggart decided to leave for Florida State.

Duck players were visibly disappointed and otherwise emotional. This distraction and these feelings produced a very underwhelming bowl game effort against a Boise State team that was not suffering similar emotional turmoil and team demoralization.

So, while we as bettors cannot fully immerse ourselves inside the player's heads, we can determine the proper betting angle by looking into analogous situations that offer insight into how players generally, as players and human beings, respond to the same sorts of situations.

From preparational and emotional standpoints, Jackson State suffers unique disadvantages that help explain why one must invest in NC Central.

Transfer Portal

With Coach Prime leaving, top Tiger players have been rushing to declare their intent to transfer out of the program.

Again, the Tigers are favored so heavily because they, with their top players, have thrived in regular season action.

But without commitment from those players, another key condition of the success that justified the large spread gets removed.

The Tigers are, with respect to player commitment, not the team that made them great in the regular season.

Multiple Jackson State players, in sum, have committed themselves to the transfer portal.

Travis Hunter

One key player worth highlighting is cornerback Travis Hunter.

Hunter will actually follow Coach Prime to Colorado.

He is a phenomenal cornerback known for locking down his opponent.

The lockdown cornerback is visibly committed to being a Buffalo instead of a Tiger.

NC Central's Path

NC Central's path to this bowl game was not easy, but the Eagles proved that they belong in this game.

MEAC leaders Howard with its undefeated conference record was supposed to be a tough opponent for them.

But NC Central thrashed them 50-21.

Total Bet

NC Central's repeated ability to score a lot of points makes the "over" alluring, especially given Travis Hunter's readiness to move on from the team.

The Eagles are well-stocked on offense, where they are lead by dual-threat quarterback Davius Richard.

While the Tigers have other top guys planning on leaving, such as Shedeur Sanders, they still have sufficient talent to help the game go over the posted total.

Best Bet: Over 56 at -110 with BetOnline
 
Will be interesting to see how things play out because everything I have read has been from current players expressing support for the move and not upset at all as they “get it”. I actually agree with the move and the support expressed by his players because it shows a level of maturity and understanding that could be considered wise beyond their years.
 
Jackson St was upset in this game last year. Entering the game 11-1, undefeated vs FCS teams, they lost by 21 to South Carolina State as a 10.5 pt favorite.

I don't know, was South Carolina State a good team or was there some problem with Jackson State's prep and focus for that game? QB Sanders was awful. Maybe he is beyond such a bad game now?

Jackson State also failed to cover their last game, barely. They jumped out 26-0, but then Southern came back and it was only 36-24 in the 3rd before going Final at 43-24 (JSU-20.5) No scoring entire 4th Q. Their two other games before that, they "only" won by 14 (laying 28.5) and 11 (laying 19.5). Jackson St is on a 0-3 spread run.
 
NC Central beating New Hampshire in Sept by 18 is impressive. But losing to Campbell by 30 is pretty bad. Campbell was good at times, but still, not very competitive vs a quality opponent. I know you said the Howard game was a measuring stick, but Howard wasn't on my radar of good teams. Campbell was.
 
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