Jack's Wednesday game thoughts

[Jack]

Hey I spelled Wednesday right on first try. It must be a good sign that the Gambling God will show his mercy today:smiley_acbe:

Anyways, looking at the early games, first thing jumping out is the Atl/Mil game total. The line opened at 8.5 yesterday, went down to 8 and is now back at 8.5 again. NOTE: According to pregamewire, Chipper Jones is OUT.

The more I loook at this line, the more trappy it feels. If these teams can score a combined run of 9 off of Smoltz and Sheet, then we would think they'll sure to score more off of Hudson and Bush, heck Bush himself might do, right?

I looked at the previous two games, yesterday these two teams had a combined 30 HITS, with just 9 runs scored, and the day before, 13 HITS, with just 3 runs scored. Miller park is pretty nuetral in terms of pitching v.s. batting. So either both teams are playing extremely good defense, OR, something is wrong with their offense.

Don't get me wrong, I like the over in this game, but it just seems a bit too easy. What do you guys think?

 

[Troutman]

Not to easy. It seems logical and you can back it with stats...Then go with it.

 

[E.T.G.]

Don't out think yourself..A real problem I have

 

[Jack]

That makes two of use ETG.

O/U went from 8.5 u-107 to 8.5 u-118 right now in the last hour. That could be because Jones is out. Wind is also blowing in at 10mph.

 

[E.T.G.]

its a dome?

 

[Jack]

lol, too funny, thanks for pointing that out ETG.

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL Jack, i'm not too sure about this game at all but seems like you and a few others are on this one.

 

[Jack]

Ok early plays:

Milwaukee $20
Milwaukee under 8 $5
CWS $10
CWS under 9 $5

Record

Side 2-0-0
Total 0-4-0

 

[G-Man]

Don't out think yourself..A real problem I have

Too much thought -without some instinct - can kill ya...:shake:

 

[Jack]

Thanks G-man!

Late money on Minnesota, gonna play safe and hedge this play.

So just these three:

Milwaukee $20
Milwaukee under 8 $5
CWS under 9 $5

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck today Jack

 

[Fondybadger]

its a dome?

Retractable roof, my assumption is the roof is open today... Hot and muggy. I watched that game last night and it still seems weird each team got 15 hits, didn't seem that way, but I guess there were a lot of bloopers and then the pitching came in and got them out of jams.

 

[daytonavol]

Jack, good luck, Sox look good early.

 

[Jack]

Thanks daytonavol.

I'm attempted to take Texas/Oakland over at 8 plus money. Wind is blowing out at 14mph, though the home plate ump Mulchlinski is 1-4 O/U this year.

 

[Jack]

Thanks to Milwaukee bullpen, the Milwaukee ML and under is shot now. The texas over is getting hit pretty hard for some reason.

Adding Texas/Oakland Over 8

 

[E.T.G.]

do you follow the late action?

 

[Jack]

I do look for them, I notice that late night games the outcomes are more likely to go against late movements.

But in general, it just scares me when lines are not moving my way. Plus money is scary to me.

 

[Jack]

I just can't believe this fking shit.

Side 2-1-0
Total 0-5-0

 

[Jack]

This has to be the funkiest night of my gambling life. Had Yankees under and they scored 5 runs top of first, hoping to get a push, idiot DOwns decided to intentially walk Jeters with man on second base, and then he decided to pitch to A-Rod with two on base, I'm just speechless.

Then Zito decided to shut out the mets, it just so happens I had the mets and over.

Now looking at the Seattle/LAA game, I really wanted to bet the over, but decided not to since my over bet on yesterday's game got burned, and now they score 5 runs in the first inning, which happens to be the total runs scored for the ENTIRE game yesterday.