Ivy League Week 9

[s--k]

Saturday, November 12, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Saturday 11/12/2022	Columbia -4.5 / 54.5	Brown	12:00 P.M.	Providence, R.I. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+ Stats Video
Saturday 11/12/2022	Princeton -1.5 / 45.5	Yale	12:00 P.M.	New Haven, Conn. (Conf.)	ESPN+
Saturday 11/12/2022	Harvard	Penn -1.5 / 47.5	1:00 P.M.	Franklin Field (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+ Video
Saturday 11/12/2022	Dartmouth -6 / 44	Cornell	1:00 P.M.	Ithaca, N.Y. (Conf.)	ESPN+ Stats

Good schedule of games this week.

Just two weeks left so I am going to spend more time reading and watching Ivies next two weeks. I will also recap some of the interesting results that happened last Saturday. There was a big upset, a huge blowout and one of the games even made SVP's Bad Beats SportsCenter segment!

I'll be back later.

 

[s--k]

OK so where to start from last week. It wasn't a great slate, but it turned out to be pretty interesting.

Let's start with the big upset. Columbia won at Harvard as a double digit underdog. It was Columbia's first win at Harvard since 1995! I really did not feel that Columbia was a bad team, but they were playing bad that's for sure. Columbia had outgained 2 of their last 3 foes yet lost them both. Harvard has never really put a complete performance together this entire year. I thought they were getting on the right track last week, but things went off track again vs Columbia. First of all, they went back to Dean at QB who missed last week allowing Emge to lead the win vs Dartmouth. Emge is now 4-0 as a starter, but he was second string to Dean this week. Secondly, Harvard was without their top two WRs for this game. Wimberly was injured last week and may miss extended time. Their other WR Hatch was also out. Those things hurt. The bottom line about this game is the Columbia special teams. Their FG defense got a hand on THREE Harvard FG attempts including the would-be game winner. Also, penalties were a major negative for Harvard earlier this season, which they had seemed to clean up. However a very significant penalty cost them this week. Columbia had just scored a TD and made the xpt to tie the game 20-20 with 9min left. But Harvard jumped offside. Columbia takes the pts off the board and opts to go for 2! It was a good play design, although Harvard was in position to defend it, still Columbia crossed the goal line and now led 21-20. Harvard had two trips into Columbia territory late to see if they could retake the lead. They were SOD at the C32 and their final drive saw a false start create a long down-distance situation where Harvard never got a FD and had to attempt a 42y FG. It was tipped and went off the upright!

Harvard outgained them 413-258 (5.7-4.0), but the Crimson were just 2-of-13 on 3rd down and they scored just 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips. Columbia even was -3 TOs and still won the game! For his effort, Columbia LB Scott Valentas was named Ivy D POW.

Next we'll go the SVP bad beat game Penn at Cornell. While Cornell did score with 3 or 5 seconds left for the cover (and the game Over) there are some other things I want to focus on. Such as 3 Penn TDs off just 80 yards of offense! Penn blk'd 2 punts giving Penn the ball at the C20 and C47 plus got an INT and return that set up Penn at the C13. Cornell had a 22-10 first down advantage while outgaining Penn 343-272, although Penn had a 4.9-3.8 ypp edge. Cornell attempted seven 4th downs, converting just 3 (one of which was on the final score of the game that gave them the cover and sent the game over in the final seconds). Penn RB Trey Flowers was Ivy O POW with his 26att-124-2TD game. It was windy at a lot of games last week. Penn QB Sayin completed just 8-of-18 passes for 137y. Wang was 20-of-45 for 209-2-2. Per usual Wang led the Big Red in rushing with 84y on 25att.

How about something that hasn't happened since 1929? That would be Yale's 69 points scored! It was also the most points ever allowed by Brown. Brown's #1 QB Wilcox was knocked out last week, but the backup played well and if you remember Brown actually handed Penn their first loss of the year last week. Well difference vs coming off the bench vs first start perhaps? The Brown O uncharacteristically struggled gaining just 22y on their first 4 possessions while Yale scored on 5 of their first 6 possessions and 6 of their first 8 overall. Here is the big kicker in this game. Yale scored 28 pts in the final 5 minutes of the 2nd Q including 14 in the final minute! They led 52-3 HT! There were turnovers of course and defensive scores. Crazy. Yale substituted liberally to open the 2H, but they still quickly scored 2 TDs to build 66-3 lead. Never fear, Brown covered the +5.5 2H number scoring 14 of the games final 17 pts. Yale outgained them 558-274 (8.9-3.5).

The final game last week was Dartmouth at Princeton. Now Princeton was involved in a very misleading win last week where they won 35-9 at Cornell while being by nearly 150 yards (288-433)! This week was also misleading but in the opposite manner. Princeton only won 17-14. They outgained Dartmouth 376-256 (4.8-4.7). Root cause here, Princeton fumbled at the D17, settled for a FG from the D06, SOD at the D13 and later at the D22. And Dartmouth got the games only score of the 2H in the final 16 seconds. Princeton scored just 2 TDs on 6 RZ trips and scored on just 3-of-6 overall. This is not the first time this has happened. Vs Lafayette Princeton scored just 3 TDs on 6 RZ trips and vs Lehigh they scored just 2 on 6. As a % of TDs on RZ trips, Princeton is second to last in the Ivy. And something I have harped on, they don't have a good OL and that hurts their running game. They have only topped 100y rushing three games this year. The Harvard game was the outlier and they broke some tendencies there and ran their QB a lot. But here vs Dartmouth, they only avg'd 2.9 ypc. Vs Cornell 2.4 ypc, Lafayette 2.1 ypc, Columbia .7 ypc. Lehigh 2.0 ypc. They have only had a better than 4 ypc twice this year. Princeton has proved to be the best team in the league this year, so far. We are about to see if they can keep proving it because now they travel to 6-2 Yale and close the season hosting 7-1 Penn.

Harvard's Ivy title shot is once again gone thanks to their upset loss to Columbia. Princeton is the only undefeated team with Penn and Yale each having one loss. Penn beat Yale 20-13 in a tight game. Penn hosts Harvard, how will Harvard play relegated to spoiler once again? Princeton comes to Yale. And then Penn and Princeton play. Princeton is in the driver's seat, but Penn and Yale both remain alive for a championship. A lot of drama and intrigue remains

More later.

 

[s--k]

Brown 3-5 (1-4 Ivy) / 4-3-1 ATS (3-2 Ivy)
Columbia 4-4 (1-4 Ivy) / 3-5 ATS (1-4 Ivy)
Cornell 4-4 (1-4 Ivy) / 5-3 ATS (3-2 Ivy)
Dartmouth 2-6 (1-4 Ivy) / 3-5 ATS (3-2 Ivy)
Harvard 5-3 (3-2 Ivy) / 1-7 ATS (1-4 Ivy)
Penn 7-1 (4-1 Ivy) / 6-2 ATS (3-2 Ivy)
Princeton 8-0 (5-0 Ivy) / 4-4 ATS (3-2 Ivy)
Yale 6-2 (4-1 Ivy) / 3-5 ATS (3-2 Ivy)

of note:

Brown 2H Overs are 5-3 overall, 4-1 in Ivy play (avg total 26.8). The one over that lost was a 28.5 when they combined for just 21. 2H Overs are 4-0 in Ivy games Brown is an underdog in.

Brown has been outgained by 279 and 284 yards in their losses vs Rhode Island and Yale. In their other 6 games Brown on average has outgained their opponents 400-398 and they are actually 4-1-1 ATS in those other 6 games. 4-0 ATS in those games as a dog.

Columbia is 0-5 ATS in the 1H in their Ivy games, but the 1H Over in those games is 4-1. The one Over that lost was a 25 when they combined for just 20.

Columbia has only been outgained 311-369 in Ivy play, but have been outscored 16-29

Columbia is 6-2 straight up in the 2H overall, but just 3-2 in the 2H straight up vs Ivy

Cornell has only been outgained 308-356 in Ivy play, but have been outscored 19-31

Cornell is just 2-6 straight up in the 2H overall and just 1-4 in the 2H straight up vs Ivy. The one game they outscored their opponent in the 2H was just last week vs Penn 14-7.

Dartmouth is 0-4 ATS as a favorite overall, but 3-1 ATS vs Ivy as a dog. The one loss was 2 weeks ago when they were +2.5 but Harvard beat them 28-13.

Dartmouth is 1-6-1 ATS 1H overall and 1-3-1 ATS 1H vs Ivy, but they are 3-1 ATS 2H as a dog vs Ivy. The one loss was 2 weeks ago when they were +1.5 but Harvard outscored them 14-0.

The Under is 4-1 in Dartmouth games vs Ivy. Average total 45.6. The one game that went Over was when Columbia and Dartmouth combined for 51 pts on a 38 total (aided by a 28 pt combined 2H).

Dartmouth has been outgained in 6 straight games! On average Dartmouth is being outgained 283-391 in Ivy play but only outscored 18-23.

Harvard is 1-7 ATS overall and just 1-4 ATS in Ivy play. Their lone cover was -2.5 at Dartmouth 2 weeks ago.

Harvard is only 1-4 ATS in the 2H vs Ivy, their lone cover was 2 weeks ago at Dartmouth when they outscored them 14-0 -2.5

Harvard is outgaining their Ivy foes 404-335, but only outscoring them 26-25 on average. If the Princeton game is removed, Harvard has outgained their other Ivy foes 430-301 and outscored them 30-23 on average.

Penn is 6-2 ATS overall, but just 3-2 ATS vs Ivy.

2H Ivy Overs are 3-1-1 in Penn games. They two that failed were a push on 21 last week and a combined 13 on 21 vs Yale.

Unders are 8-0 in Princeton games and 5-0 vs Ivy! They are mostly due to lopsided results as Princeton outscored their non-Ivy opponents 30-11 and their Ivy foes 30-12. Despite this record, the average total in Ivy play has been 49.3!

Princeton is 7-0-1 straight up in the 1H including 5-0 straight up vs Ivy teams in the 1H

Princeton has outgained all but two of their opponents this year, Brown and Cornell both outgained the Tigers, but interestingly Princeton won those games 35-19 and 35-9

Yale is outgaining Ivy opponents on average 437-283 with an average score of 37-18. If we remove last week's game vs Brown, those averages fall to just 407-286 with an avg score of 29-18.

Yale is 5-0 ATS vs Ivy opponents in the 1H this year (4-0 as a fav and 1-0 as a dog). They are 4-0-1 straight up in the 1H (10-10 vs Penn).

Yale Overs are 2-2-1 in Ivy play with an average total of 49.7. The push was on a 52 total vs Cornell and the two losses were a miss by 5.5 pts on a 50.5 total while the Penn-Yale game went Under by 12.5 pts on a 45.5 total.

 

[s--k]

Sorry oakas, CPAhole and JCoffin I just put the spreads in now for the pick'em.

oakas has a 4 game lead with only 8 games left in the season!

 

[s--k]

Hopefully we get both team's A games in the Princeton vs Yale game. That has a chance to be really good. By the way the last 4 games between them have combined for 55, 65, 102 and 66 pts! And like I said, no Princeton game has gone over this year which I feel is mostly because they haven't been in a truly competitive game really this year vs a team that can move the ball and score on them. Cornell gained 433 and Brown gained 391, but they also only combined for just 28 pts vs Princeton. Yale is averaging 437 ypg and 37 pts in Ivy play. Grooms threw 3 INTs vs them last year. I think that is the key. While Yale's D isn't all that great, I think how Grooms plays will ultimately decide if Yale can pull it off or not.

Harvard at Penn is also really big, for Penn. As much as we think of Harvard as this perennially good Ivy team, they aren't. They were, but Murphy's best years are behind him and Harvard really hasn't been championship level for a few years now. To that point, some not so great Penn teams have beat them, like in 2019 when 5-5 Penn won 24-20 or 2017 when 6-4 Penn won 23-6. This Penn team is certainly better than those versions. Even last year when Harvard won 23-7, it was mostly due to TOs (Penn -4) as Harvard only outgained them by 58 yards. Penn was a mess last year. Now Harvard is the team who is kind of a mess. Penn wins this and it sets up their chance to win the Ivy Title next week.

Columbia and Brown should be fairly good. Last year Brown led 14-0, but they turned it over on back-to-back possessions and Columbia won 23-17. Brown outgained them 389-310, but Columbia had 12 TFLs to go with 3 sacks. Columbia has won 4 of the last 5.

I'm least interested in Dartmouth vs Cornell mainly because Dartmouth to me is the least interesting team in the Ivy this season. Last year Dartmouth led 28-0 HT and Cornell was held to just 54y in the 1H and Big Green finished with nearly a 250 yardage edge. Wang was not the primary QB last year, he only attempted 3 passes and had 50 yards rushing/passing. In 2019 Dartmouth came in 8-0 and their only loss of the season ended up being against what was a then 2-6 Cornell team at the time.

 

[oakas]

Thanks s..k for running the contest. I actually bet some of the games that I put in the contest.

You have rejuvenated me in betting the Ivies. A long time ago I played these games and really enjoyed following the teams.

Thanks again.

 

[s--k]

Thanks s..k for running the contest. I actually bet some of the games that I put in the contest.

You have rejuvenated me in betting the Ivies. A long time ago I played these games and really enjoyed following the teams.

Thanks again.

You are more than welcome! It makes me feel good to know you've enjoyed it.

 

[s--k]

Good day of games. Yale beat Princeton. Harvard beat Penn. Elsewhere Columbia and Brown went to OT and Cornell upset Dartmouth.

But, with the results today next week as many as 4 teams can share the Ivy Title.

138th edition of The Game will be an Ivy Title game! The 113th meeting of Penn-Princeton will be an Ivy Title game!