Ivy League Week 6

[s--k]

Friday, October 21, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Friday 10/21/2022	Princeton	Harvard -1.5 / 49.5	7:00 P.M.	Cambridge, Mass. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN Networks Video

Saturday, October 22, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Saturday 10/22/2022	Cornell	Brown -1.5 / 61.5	12:30 P.M.	Providence, R.I. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+ Stats Video
Saturday 10/22/2022	Yale	Penn -2.5 / 47.5	1:00 P.M.	Franklin Field (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+
Saturday 10/22/2022	Dartmouth -1.5 / 37.5	Columbia	1:30 P.M.	New York, N.Y. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+

It's all Ivy on Ivy from this week out.

As poor as I felt last week was, this is going to be an outstanding week of games.

It starts with the Princeton vs Harvard grudge match Friday night. More on that in a bit. Then we have what is an evenly matched game vs the two lower tier teams in the league as Cornell travels to Brown, although they have each performed better in spots than expected and also faultered at times worse than expected. Next is 5-0 Penn, the biggest surprise so far this year as they try to regain their former championship level greatness. They host Yale who also has championship aspirations, this will be Yale's first big test - Yale still has some problems with turnovers and defense...Penn flourishes on turnovers! And then we have the league's most disappointing teams meeting eachother, Dartmouth on a 4 game losing streak vs Columbia who is also disappointingly 0-2 in the Ivy. Columbia thought they were ready to take the next step, however they've lost to the two teams who appear the best right now in the Ivy in both Princeton and Penn. Those teams are a combined 10-0 and Columbia was not competitive in either making a host of mistakes. Defending Co-Champ Dartmouth wishes they could go back to fall camp to figure out their offensive woes, but instead have to do it on the fly and last week vs UNH it was ugly.

More later tonight on this week's action and a look back a little at last week.

 

[s--k]

Just to put a bow on last week, here is some of the pertinet info:

Princeton to me remains the best and most complete team in the Ivy, 5-0 SU, just 2-3 ATS. The don't run the ball well, despite what the stats say from Brown box score, 110 yards (their best since week 1) nearly half of their run yards came on a 1p 49y TD run and that still left them with just a 3.7 ypc for the game. I do think this Ryan Butler RB is going to be pretty good for them, he's only a Fr and has been named Ivy Fr of the week 3x. Their problem is OL. Brown had 3 sacks in the 1H that ended drives or took them out of scoring position. Princeton has allowed 17 sacks in just 5 games. And they allowed the most sacks last year. Outside of that one very important part of their team, they are really good everywhere else. They led Brown last week 28-10, but as is often typical of the Ivies, they didn't hold their lead and allowed Brown to make it somewhat interesting and Brown ended up outgaining them 391-368, but Princeton had significantly better ypp 6.5-3.9. Princeton probably has the best QB in the league, for sure has the best receivers and their D is very good even though I thought it would regress a little this year, they haven't much if at all so far. Their best DL returning from last year Uche Ndukwe DNP last week, hopefully he can go this week. The have a good K and the best P in the Ivy as well. They are trying for 5th Ivy Title in the last 9 years.

Brown is kind of what they always have been, a good O, can hang around in some games, but has the worst D in the league. One area they have been better this year is turnover margin. Last year they lost 3 or more TOs in 8 of 10 games. This year that has only happened twice in 5 games. They are 3-1-1 ATS, but what is notable is that they had to come from behind in all 3 of their covers to get within the number - so they haven't played from ahead much at all except for the CCSU game when they were favored (that's the push). They have been outgained by 75y or more in 3 of their 5 games.

The best game last week was supposed to be Columbia at Penn. It wasn't unless you back Penn. As I mentioned in last week's thread Saturday night, this game took a drastic turn when it was just 3-0. Both teams had just been SOD inside the opponents 30 when Penn DL Micah Morris read a screen pass and INT'd it and returned for TD. 10-0. Very next play after the KO, Columbia RB Young fumbled at the C24, Penn ret'd 11y and 5 plays later it was 17-0. Two additional turnovers for Columbia happened after big pass plays, they just got a 58y pass, then threw an INT in the EZ next play. Later, after a 45y catch, the receiver fumbled at the P22. 4 Columbia turnovers proved very costly, 14 pts for Penn and taking away scoring opportunities for Columbia. Columbia outgained them 428-399 (7.4-5.0), although some of that came late in the game when Columbia scored both their TDs. Penn won 34-14. Columbia starting QB Joe Green was just 5-of-21, but for 159. They went to the back up Caden Bell who finished 13-18-196 with both their TD passes.

Penn is 5-0 and a really pleasant surprise. They haven't opened 5-0 since 2003 when they went undefeated. QB Sayin has really taken his play to the next level and they won without top RB Trey Flowers. Penn was going to be pretty good on D, but they've exceeded expectations. Turnovers have fueled both of their big wins this year. After winning by just 11 vs Colgate and 12 vs Lafayette then 6 vs Dartmouth in OT - the last two weeks they have beat Georgetown by 31 and Columbia by 20 and gaining 6 turnovers played a large role. They've got a ton of momentum right now, but Yale O will be a good test this week.

Columbia must be disappointed at their 0-2 start in Ivy play and they were not competitive in either loss. Although, one could say, their losses have come vs Princeton and Penn, who are a combined 10-0. I doubt that is little consolation. Columbia was one of my teams this year I thought could surprise and finish maybe in the top 3 of the league. Their D is good enough, but the O was shut out vs Princeton and their 2 TDs vs Penn came after the game was already decided.

The other three games last week wrapped up the non-conference portion of the schedule.

Cornell struggled with Lehigh. They took the lead 2H with a pick-six and then had to withstand a couple Lehigh drives to preserve the lead and get the win. These teams combined for 9 FG attempts! They made 5. There were a combined 11 RZ trips which resulted in just 2 TDs! Lehigh outgained them 374-357 (5.1-6.2). Each team lost 2 TOs and each team converted those into 10 pts (Cornell D got a pick-six). Cornell's O goes as QB Wang goes and the D is down there at the bottom where you'd expect it to be. Cornell has been outgained in 4 of their 5 games this year. In Ivy play vs Yale and Harvard their O averaged just 217y and D allowed 419y. They are 3-2 straight up, but their wins have come by 6, 3 and 4 vs the likes of VMI, Colgate and Lehigh.

Dartmouth, this must be rock bottom, being shut out at home in a rivalry game vs New Hampshire. UNH outgained them 363-198 (5.0-4.2). Not like it matters, but I kicked myself for picking Dartmouth in our pick'em. I knew that line was high, but I hoped the new passing QB from the Yale game coupled with the return of Howard as the running QB, hey now they had a plan and direction - it was going to be like the Kyler/Howard O of 2021, it wasn't - they could neither pass nor run effectively. They ran for just 88 yards and were an awful 20% on 3rd down. On a 4 game losing streak, I don't know how they turn it around. They are off back-to-back 9-1 seasons and shares of the Ivy Title. The last time they lost 4 or more games was 2016, a year that also followed an Ivy Title and they went 4-6 overall including just 1-6 in Ivy play. That looks like where they are heading this season as well, although I'd guess they can pull together a couple wins.

Yale turned it over 5x vs Bucknell! Yale did end up outgaining them 433-260 (5.9-4.1), but only won 29-9. QB Grooms is a big play guy running and passing, but also the gunslinger who risks throwing INTs in bunches. That's what he was last year too and he hasn't improved upon that yet (5-8 TD-INT ratio). I wouldn't say the Yale D is bad, but it hasn't improved from last year either and it needed to.

Finally, Harvard. After looking at most of the closing lines, I am actually going to grade their win vs Howard as a non-cover. They won by 16 and the line shows it was 17/17.5 at most places according to BMR website. Harvard is just a maddening team, I now have them as 0-5 ATS, 0-4 ATS as a fav and 0-1 ATS as a dog. On average they have only outscored their opponents by 6 ppg (32-26) and only outgained them by 36y (383-347). Harvard benefitted from excellent starting field position for three of their TD drives following turnovers or a blk'd punt. They in fact got 21 pts off just 88y of offense on three of their possessions. Due to this, they only outgained Howard 376-363. Howard was in this game believe it or not, it was tied 17-17 HT. Harvard D lived up to their billing in the 2H as Howard gained just 87y before their final garbage drive that went for 76y. That is where Howard scored their only pts of the 2H, on 4th down, with :40 left and they go for 2 which made the final score 41-25. Harvard does a lot of things poorly. Their scoring D is actually 3rd worst in the Ivy. Total D 5th, Run D 4th, Pass Eff D 7th, they are just one spot better 3rd down D than Brown at 5th and they actually have the worst RZ D, 8th Ivy and t-71st FCS overall! What Harvard does do well, the only redeeming quality I think on this team is their DL. Their DL penetrates and plays in the opposing backfield a lot and that is reflected with their league leading sack and TFL numbers. The stats say their scoring O, total O, pass O, run O is all good - to me they are very inconsistent in all those aspects. They got out of the Howard game only being called for 5 penalties for 50y (3 of those 5 gave Howard a FD), none-the-less, Harvard still has been penalized 44x in just 5 games so far this year for 89 yards. The yardage penalized ranks 120th out of 123 in FCS. If they want to be a title worthy team, they need to improve quite a bit. But they're 4-1 and 2-0 in the Ivy so it hasn't cost them yet.

ATS records:

Brown 3-1-1 (2 overs / 3 unders)
1H 2-3 / 2H 3-2

Columbia 2-3 (1 over / 4 unders)
1H 2-3 / 2H 3-2

Cornell 3-2 (2 overs / 2 unders / 1 push)
1H 3-2 / 2-3

Dartmouth 1-4 (2 overs / 3 unders)
1H 0-5 / 2H 1-3* game 5 2H line NA

Harvard 0-5 (4 overs / 1 under)
1H 2-3 / 2H 1-4

Penn 5-0 (2 overs / 3 unders)
1H 3-1-1 / 2H 4-1

Princeton 2-3 (0 overs / 5 unders)
1H 2-3 / 2H 3-2

Yale 1-4 (1 over / 2 unders / 2 push)
1H 2-3 / 2H 2-3

School	Conf	CPct.	Overall	Pct.	Streak
Penn	2-0	1.000	5-0	1.000	W5
Princeton	2-0	1.000	5-0	1.000	W5
Harvard	2-0	1.000	4-1	.800	W2
Yale	2-0	1.000	4-1	.800	W4
Columbia	0-2	.000	3-2	.600	L1
Cornell	0-2	.000	3-2	.600	W1
Brown	0-2	.000	2-3	.400	L1
Dartmouth	0-2	.000	1-4	.200	L4

 

[carolinablue]

I got in early on Harvard as it opened at 13.5 so I jumped as I figured they would make Howard one dimensional and eventually wear em down in the 2H. Couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw the update at 17-17, but thankfully Harvard got it together in the 2H for the cover. Really appreciate the thread as it puts some games on my radar that I otherwise might miss so thanks man!

 

[s--k]

Thanks for reading and posting about your Harvard play. That is generally what Harvard has done this year, make one not believe their eyes.

The Ivy lines, as with all FCS lines, I note the 5dimes numbers when they come out on Monday, but then when the books post them later or on Saturday there is usually a lot of movement.

I appreciate having the outlet here and posting random thoughts on these teams as this is what I'd eventually like to focus on - although not sure that actually ever happens or not.

 

[s--k]

Ivy Teams among power rankings:

Phil Steele's Power Poll:
1) Sacramento St 138
48) New Hampshire 108.7
49) Princeton 108.2
52) Harvard 107.6
53) Yale 107.5
55) Penn 106.3
75) Dartmouth 100.5
96) Columbia 95.1
99) Brown 94.3
103) Cornell 91.6
104) San Diego 91.4
130) Presbyterian 64.5

Phil Steele's Power Ranking:
Team -----------Started --------- Current
Princeton ------ 98 -------------- 102
Harvard ------- 102 ------------- 100
Penn ----------- 84 -------------- 100
Yale ------------ 106 ------------- 99
Dartmouth ---- 110 --------------93
Columbia ------ 86 ---------------89
Brown ---------- 83 ---------------87
Cornell --------- 75 ---------------85

Sagarin:

College football team ratings 2022 - Jeff Sagarin Ratings

sagarin.usatoday.com

73 Sacramento State 68.94
151 Tennessee-Martin53.55
152 Princeton 53.48
162 Harvard 50.70
163 Pennsylvania 50.45
174 Yale 47.00
188 Dartmouth 44.04
197 Columbia 41.79
210 Brown 37.85
213 Cornell 36.92
214 Eastern Illinois 36.87
261 Presbyterian 11.92

Peter Wolfe

2023 College Football

63 Holy Cross 5.712
126 Jackson St 4.264
127 Princeton 4.217
132 Pennsylvania 4.082
138 Harvard 4.027
147 Yale 3.673
178 Columbia 2.966
180 Cornell NY 2.948
206 Brown 2.508
227 Dartmouth 2.057
228 Tennessee St 2.037
349 Drake -0.036
Wolfe ranks Div l, ll, lll, and NAIA - never knew that

Robert Massey

Massey Ratings - College Football : FCS Ratings

Computer ratings and rankings for CF (College Football), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.

masseyratings.com

1) Sac State
2) Weber State
29) Missouri State
30) Princeton
31) Penn
39) Harvard
44) Yale
66) Cornell
68) Columbia
76) Dartmouth
89) Brown
90) Nichlos
91) Cal Poly
130) Presbyterian

 

[s--k]

The Friday night TV games aren't too good, so most football attention should be on the Princeton at Harvard game.

Story from last year is that Princeton won 18-16 in 5 overtimes. Harvard and Princeton were both unbeaten at the time with this game being pivotal for each team's Ivy Championship hopes. You can tell by the score it was obviously a game the defenses dominated. Princeton was averaging 41.2 PPG, they were held to 13 in regulation. Harvard came in averaging 213 ypg rushing, in this game they were held to 47. Princeton's only TD was a blk'd punt which they fell on in the EZ. That gave them a 13-6 lead in the 3rd Q. The first offensive TD of the game came early 4th Q when Harvard tied it 13-13. Princeton missed a FG at the end of regulation and off to OT they went.

The first OT featured two FGs. 16-16

The second OT saw Princeton INT Harvard, but then the Crimson blk'd a would-be game winning Princeton FG

The third OT is where the controversy begins. Princeton's 2-pt play pass was broken up. Harvard appeared to have the game winning play when they completed their pass for a score! The Princeton coach was protesting that he was calling timeout before the play, which had gone unnoticed by the officials. They went to instant replay to determine if the coach had been signaling for a timeout before the play and ultimately awarded Princeton said timeout and told Harvard they must attempt their try again. At which point the Harvard coach goes berserk! Harvard tries again, they score! But penalty flag, Harvard was called for O PI. Now, 15 yards further back, their third attempt failed.

The fourth OT saw both teams fail.

The fifth OT Princeton scored. Harvard scored as well...or so it appeared, this time Harvard called timeout before the play - and of course their next try was no good and Princeton won the game.

The next day the Ivy League headquarters issued a statement saying Princeton's timeout in the third OT should not have been granted as only on-field officials can grant and signal for a timeout and replay can not be used to determine such. The timeout should not have been allowed after the play had been run and the result of the play should've been a successful Harvard 2-pt conversion. The Ivy statement also said however, the Princeton win would stand!

Obviously this admission of officiating error did nothing to satisfy Harvard, the game had been lost. A game that Harvard feels they won twice, maybe even three times, but an illegal timeout, a penalty or even their own ill-timed timeout in OT #5 all prevented the outcome they believed they deserved. Harvard believed the result should've been overturned and their team acknowledged as victorious, as they had won the game on the field and only an officaiting error and improper replay review in awarding an illegal Princeton timeout after the Crimson had scored the-then game winning points stole it from them.

Harvard went on to lose the following week as a 6 pt home favorite to Dartmouth 17-20. Princeton and Dartmouth both would finish 6-1 and win Co-Ivy Championships while Harvard was left to stew at what they believed should've been theirs. And it didn't end with last season, it's been a theme of theirs through the offseason. Harvard hasn't won an Ivy Title since 2015, their last on a string of 9 over a 19 year run.

So that takes us to this week's rematch, and it's homecoming. Harvard has the second longest FCS home winning streak on homecoming at 21. North Dakota State owns the longest (24).

 

[s--k]

Friday night's game lacked competitiveness, but it sure had impressiveness out of Princeton. And that is what Harvard has been this year, their poor play just hadn't really cost them. They didn't play all that bad vs Holy Cross, HC was just better, but their other 4 games they weren't good. Princeton made them pay and embarrassed them actually.

I wasn't too interested in the games Saturday with other games going on. I did have a Yale +4.5 bet I lost. There was a chance late the Yale D almost held Penn to a game winning FG attempt in the final minute of the game, but Penn punched it in to win by 7. Really great story, the Penn Quakers are 6-0. Pretty impressive team actually in an Ivy kind of way.

The other bet I had was a Brown 2H -2 that won. They nearly won straight up, but they had some kind of turnover in the final couple minutes deep in Cornell territory trailing by 3.

Dartmouth and Columbia looked pretty interesting. I did catch the end. Columbia has a really good kicker, several years, very reliable. He missed a FG very late that would've put them ahead by 3, he missed and Dartmouth got a couple big plays in the final half minute or so to move into FG range, it was actually believed to be out of range for their K. Dartmouth had to get their back-up K from last year to come back, he was no longer interested in football and focusing on environmental engineering or something, he isn't all that great, but he was on that game winning kick yesterday.