Ivy League Week 5

[s--k]

Friday, October 14, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Friday 10/14/2022	Brown	Princeton -20.5 / 55.5	7:00 P.M.	Princeton, N.J. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+ Video

Saturday, October 15, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Saturday 10/15/2022	Bucknell	Yale -26 / 45.5	12:00 P.M.	New Haven, Conn.
Saturday 10/15/2022	Columbia	Penn -3 / 37.5	1:00 P.M.	Franklin Field (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+
Saturday 10/15/2022	Lehigh University	Cornell -8.5 / 48.5	1:00 P.M.	Ithaca, N.Y.	Stats
Saturday 10/15/2022	New Hampshire	Dartmouth -7 / 48.5	1:30 P.M.	Hanover, N.H.
Saturday 10/15/2022	Harvard -17.5 / 55.5	Howard	4:00 P.M.	Washington, D.C.

It was an interesting week for several reasons last week in the Ivy.

First off we had Friday night's game between Harvard and Cornell. In a weekly theme, Harvard was penalized 12x for 125y! Penalties that gave Cornell a first down when they would've punted or penalties that kept a Cornell drive alive when they would've attempted a FG, or penalties that hurt Harvard's field position and moved them from the 1 yard line to the 16 yard line in one instance. This is a weekly problem for Harvard and I don't know if I have ever not bet a team or bet the other team because of penalties before, but this is one problem Harvard is consistent at. And turnovers, again, a big problem, Harvard has lost atleast 2 TOs in 3-of-4 games this year. This week, they muffed a punt and Cornell recovered at the H12 leading to a TD. The other fumble likely kept Harvard pts off the board when they lost it at the C35 driving before the end of the 1H. The Harvard O remains pretty unimpressive to me. The best thing they have going for them is Borguet running when the opposing D wears down. Dean only completed 52% of his passes, he has only completed over 56% once all year. Harvard's D is still incredibly tough to run against, but they can be had through the air. Actually, Cornell QB Jameson Wang, he is turning into one of the best QBs in the Ivy. He is pretty accurate at times and can make plays running as well. He ran 17x for 61y and 3 TDs last Friday night. This was a game that Harvard had leads of 27-14 and 35-21, but they were unable to hold on for the cover. Penalties, turnovers and RZ scoring all played a role (Harvard was 3-of-5 TDs in the RZ while Cornell was 4-for-4).

Then we had Dartmouth surprising everyone with a QB change. Howard was banged up, so they started Dylan Cadwallader, a pocket passer vs Howard almost a pure runner. It took Yale a couple drives adjust on D, still Cadwallader had a good game. A few key plays in this game. It was 7-7 when Yale stripped a Dartmouth RB as he headed for the EZ, Yale recovered at their own 1. Yale took that possession for a FG to end the 1H to lead 10-7. If it were not for that fumble Yale could've been trailing or best case perhaps tied at HT. Later in the 2H with Yale leading 17-7, Dartmouth D got an INT in the RZ, but were also called for targeting giving the ball back to Yale and ultimately a 24-7 lead. Dartmouth clawed back in it late to lose 24-21. Yale outgained them 440-268 (6.0-4.5). Going forward we will see Dartmouth employ a 2 QB system that they have run successfully since 2017.

The Penn - Georgetown game was a doozey. Penn was averaging under 16 ppg on O in regulation through 3 games this year. Vs Georgetown, they scored 59! They led 17-0 on the first 3 possession of the game thanks to a big opening KO return, and two turnovers among Georgetown's first 4 plays. It was 24-14 HT. Georgetown amazingly had two KO return TDs in the 2H, half of the Hoyas pts were KO ret TDs. Actually Georgetown nearly had more KO ret yards (262) than they did total offense yards (266). Penn's D and ST had as strong of a game as their O really since 6 Penn drives started in Georgetown territory. This does show good capability of the Penn O, however, opponent must be realized here. Everyone scores bunches on Georgetown, in the 3 games proceeding the Penn game, Georgetown allowed nearly 150 pts.

Princeton could've and probably should've won by more vs a bad Lafayette team than they did, just 3 TDs in 6 RZ trips. Princeton left some pts on the field and only kicked a FG in the entire 2H! But the Tiger D dominated in this one as expected.

Brown led 21-13 HT, but only managed two FGs in the 2H and Central Conn was in position to tie in the final minute, but failed to get a FD inside the B05 to end the game. Brown has won 2 of their 3 nonconference games, but worrisome here is their lack of O in the 2H and CCSU actually outgained them 401-301 (5.2-4.7).

 

[s--k]

Depending how deep one goes into the lower tiers of college football, this isn't a stellar week of good Ivy games this week.

Brown and Princeton I think is worth watching Friday night. Princeton has shown to be the best team in the Ivy so far this year I believe. They are good, but not strong at every position, notably their OL is a liability both run blocking and pass protecting. And their QB is good passer, but he can panic under pressure. Brown is notoriously the worst or second worst D in the Ivy. They are there again this year. Brown's O still looks capable with the new QB and I'd like to see Princeton D tested more and this will be the best offense they have played. On the other side Brown offers the typical weak Ds that Princeton has played out of conference so far. Should be some points scored, although Princeton hasn't always delivered vs weak Ds previously this year. If the Brown D plays a little over their head this could be an interesting game. Because Princeton only led Stetson 22-14 at half, were tied with Lehigh 10-10 at half and only beat them 29-17 (Lehigh D TD made it closer) and last week Princeton scored a whole 3 pts in the 2H vs weakling Lafayette. Princeton has shown weakness scoring TDs in the RZ, 12 TDs on 21 RZ trips (57% is third worst in league) . Now, I'm not saying this is an edge for Brown, it is likely a product of who they have played, but Brown RZ D has allowed just 5 RZ TDs on 12 opposing offense RZ trips. Brown D tightens up in the RZ so far this year, they are #2 Ivy, right behind the Princeton D. It's a game that Princeton should win and might win comfortably, but I do think the line is a little high given the games that Princeton has played to date. Last year the line was 20.5 at Brown and it was 28-21 1H and 56-42 Final. I don't think either offense is that good this year. Brown has covered their last 3 as 20+ underdogs in Ivy play, but have covered just 5-4 on 20+ lines if extended to beginning 2018. Princeton is 0-2 ATS this year as favorites of 20+ and are 3-4 ATS 20+ favs vs Ivy back to 2018. If all that's not enough....um.....it's "Pride Night" at Princeton and the NJ Yag Choir will sing the national anthem and Princeton had the first openly Yag college football player, he'll be the honorary captain...make of that what you will. Go Brown?

Columbia at Penn is the marquee Ivy game this week. Columbia lost their first test to Princeton 2 weeks ago. Penn is off to their best start since 2003 (and 4-0 ATS). The Quakers were a team with a struggling offense, winning with defense who had an offensive explosion last week. The odds maker thinks that Penn will revert to an offense more resembling their first 3 games. I agree. Columbia is also a defensive team. In fact Unders are 4-0 in Columbia games and the first loss for the Under in a Penn game was last week (combined Unders 7-1 on the year). I wanted to play the Under here before I saw the number as I hoped last week's Penn-Georgetown game might skew the total. Both these teams could finish the game in the teens, or one or both could crack 20, so it might be a close final to the current total. Columbia and Penn have played some extremely weak competition with one exception, Penn beat Dartmouth, but Dartmouth is now on a 3 game losing streak and lost at Sacred Heart so, we can call them weak too at this point. Both teams boast some very high defensive statistical rankings and both these teams think they are for real Ivy Title contenders, we'll have to see about that. Both QBs are trying to turn the corner in their second season starting and both have had their moments. Both like to run, Columbia is probably the better running team. They both stop the run well. Special teams might be even with the better returners and P on Penn and the better FG kicker on Columbia (note that Penn allowed 2 KO ret TDs last week). Columbia HC Al Bagnoli was Penn HC from 1992-2014 where he won 9 Ivy Titles! He's got Columbia on a good path and they have won 3 of the last 4 vs Penn but haven't won in Philly since 1996. It's the best game going this week. Two teams believe this is their year going against each other.

Cornell has been a surprise so far this year (3-1 ATS). Wang was banged up last week at the end vs Harvard, he has emerged into quite a play maker for them, they will need him even vs Lehigh. Lehigh isn't exactly awful, I mean they aren't good, but they aren't Lafayette bad either. Their only win was vs Georgetown and all their losses were vs teams obviously better than them. Lehigh lost by 12 catching 24 at Princeton a couple weeks ago with Princeton outgaining them 353-253 (5.4-4.4). Cornell won both their other nonconference games on the road, dogged in both. Cornell is recently a poor favorite. Last year they lost 2 out of 3 as a fav (1-2 ATS), in 2019 they won 3-of-5 straight up as a fav (2-3 ATS in those). In 2018 they were 1-0 ATS and SU as a favorite. Could be an interesting game if there wasn't anything else going on...

Yale and Harvard should both roll. Harvard has been so poor and sloppy this year, they are 0-4 ATS. Yale was up big on and took their foot off the gas and Howard covered on them. Harvard going to drop to 0-5 ATS? They could as undisciplined and error prone as they have been, but I would bet them if I had to pick the game. Both Yale and Harvard should cover and win very big vs these teams.

Dartmouth and New Hampshire might be a good game. I've lost touch on New Hampshire after betting some of their games earlier in the year, but see they are 4-2. Like I said before Dartmouth successfully ran a dual QB system since 2017 with one passer and one rusher, that is what they will be going back to. Head coach said as much, Howard is expected back this week and he'll have to accept a role resembling what he had last year when Derek Kyler was the passing QB. They gave him a shot, he plays QB like a LB, and throws like one so what else can they do. New Hampshire was a small favorite at home last year and a much better Dartmouth team had over 600y on them and won 38-21. I don't get this line at 7, I'd expect it to drop once more outlets post FCS numbers. I might take a peak into this game.

 

[s--k]

I couldn't resist some ML action on Brown.

This is not a good series for Brown:

2021 42-56 L (+20.5 W)
2019 22-65 L (+24.5 W)
2018 10-48 L (+40 W)
2017 0-53 L
2016 7-31 L
2015 38-31 W
and then 3 closer Brown losses after 2015.

Current HC Perry has only coached the '19 and '21 games. He was former OC at Princeton 2010-2016. He has elevated the O for sure and I thought it might drop off without EJ Perry (coaches nephew) who was drafted, but it appears that HC Perry can get the O to produce without him. Brown is pretty deep at WR, but one of if not their best WR Graham Walker is out tonight (he was #2 WR last year and all the receivers from last year returned, so Brown is better with him, but shouldn't miss him too much considering the other receivers they have).

A couple things of concern, only managed 2 FGs last week vs CCSU after putting up 21 1H pts and 2 weeks ago only scored 10 and held to under 300y at Rhode Island (QB Wilcox first road game). So it's not like this is screaming Brown here. Brown O did end up with 393y vs a generally well regarded Harvard D week 2.

I have said that Princeton looks like the best team in the Ivy so far, but they do leave some things to be desired. They haven't really blown anyone out yet. They have smothered some teams with their D and the O has done enough to win comfortable, but not enough to make you say, wow this team is really good.

The D numbers have been great for Princeton. And I do give them credit for the great D performance vs Columbia. But Stetson, Lehigh and Lafayette are bad Os that Princeton absolutely should dominate on D.

Underdogs in the Friday night Ivy games are 3-0 ATS (Merrimack+21 lost in OT, Penn +450 upset Dartmouth, Cornell +13 lost by 7).

I think Brown can cover, line has climbed up over 22 now, that is a lot of pts. Brown is better than 3 of the 4 teams Princeton has played so far this year and Princeton only covered vs 1 of those teams.

Note, if it goes like this were Brown is down at halftime, Brown is 3-1 both SU and ATS in the 2H this year and the only 2H they didn't outscore their opponent was last week when they lost the 2H 6-7. They outscored Harvard 28-14 in the 2H and Rhode Island 7-0. So a Brown 2H play could be in also

 

[s--k]

Decently entertaining Ivy League game. If you saw Princeton for the first time maybe tonight you might be like "they are good, but" that is how I feel. It might be that I am comparing them to themselves from last year? They handled the cupcake type teams a lot more impressively last year.

Brown was solid tonight for who they are, it was a challenge for them against a D that good, but I thought Brown was good enough. A couple drops that the QB put right on them hurt a couple possessions. Brown DL got through the leaky Princeton OL in the 1H and Brown isn't a great pressure team. But in the 2H Princeton OL protected very well. Princeton run game still nonexistent til the 4th Q, against a team like Brown who most teams should be able to run on. I say it every time I talk about Princeton, but the OL just isn't good and it is going to be an issue when they play a DL as good as Harvard for instance. The only time their run game got good yardage tonight was late 4th Q when the RBs would bounce it outside and out run the Brown defenders.

So this game almost went sideways at the end. Princeton came out and reasserted themselves 2H and got up by 18. Brown kicked FG to cut it to 15, which was a little odd as they had been aggressive on 4th down most of the night. Then they got an onside kick. And then they scored a TD! They got a tipped pass 2pt conversion, it was a 7 pt game! But no, they were called for holding and they botched the xpt snap and were now down by 9. It felt like that took a lot of wind out of their sails. Princeton got the onside kick and scored pretty easy, scored TD and now were up 16. Then a failed Brown 4th down in their own territory put the the +22.5 in harms way. Princeton got a big run all the way down inside the 5, but it got called back for holding and Brown backers averted going down 23. Princeton would be SOD that possession with like 1.5 minutes left. There was a ball that came out of the Brown QBs hand as a pass, but in real time it looked like it may've been knocked out and Princeton tried to scoop-and-score, it was incomplete though. I don't know, there was just lots of stuff in the 4th Q that maybe could've made this a 7 pt game late with Brown having a legit chance to tie, to at the same time, it almost being a 23 pt game and Brown not covering. Just things that happen in college football games. Could've been tough break on that 2pt penalty / failed xpt, if somebody had an Over 54.5, it landed on 54. Some places had 53s and stuff, so it all depends.

Huge game next Friday between Harvard-Princeton. If you don't know the story on that one from last year we'll talk about it next week.

 

[s--k]

Penn moves from 3 to 6.5/7. Finding any real time updates on Ivy football is pretty difficult. All players being on the field today as they should, definitely would love to take those pts with Columbia in what figures to be a tight game.

 

[s--k]

Line dropped a little on Harvard at Howard, think it dipped to 14.5 now back up to 16.5.

Could be some look ahead, actually, there will definitely be some look ahead to next week because Harvard has had the Princeton 2022 game circled the minute it ended last season. Still, it's Howard, 1-4, only win vs Moorehous, Yale was leading 27-6 before Howard made that final look closer. I think Harvard needs to play a good game for once, a complete game, a game to their potential of stout D and effective O. I'm taking them today, hopefully they get up enough to keep any backdoor closed because late in this game they focus will definitely shift to Princeton.

 

[carolinablue]

Line dropped a little on Harvard at Howard, think it dipped to 14.5 now back up to 16.5.

Could be some look ahead, actually, there will definitely be some look ahead to next week because Harvard has had the Princeton 2022 game circled the minute it ended last season. Still, it's Howard, 1-4, only win vs Moorehous, Yale was leading 27-6 before Howard made that final look closer. I think Harvard needs to play a good game for once, a complete game, a game to their potential of stout D and effective O. I'm taking them today, hopefully they get up enough to keep any backdoor closed because late in this game they focus will definitely shift to Princeton.

Actually took Harvard at open 13.5 115 as I thought it was solid value getting under 2 TDS. Wrote a little about it in my thread but your stuff is waaaaaaay better than mine!

 

[s--k]

Unless somebody is with or from or on Penn, it was not a banner day in the Ivy.

Penn is a stream roller right now! Wow. There was sequence of events that tilted the game to Penn. And credit to their D, becasue their D has been making plays all year. So Penn DT jumped up and snagged an INT and actually returned it 20 or 30 yards for a pick-six to go up 10-0. After the KO, the very next offensive play, Columbia fumbled inside their own 20 and Penn added another TD and it went from a 3-0 game to a 17-0 game in the blink of an eye. That was good enough for lights out on Columbia.

Elsewhere? Harvard covered most numbers, for their very first cover of the year. Lines ranged on them from just under 2 TDs to 17 and they won by 16, so it depends. But Jesus, they were tied with Howard at HT! Tied. With Howard. This Harvard team has been maddening for most of the season. Not an impressive game from them at all, they have yet to play an impressive game all year. Not an impressive team. And this was the supposed League favorite, not a great team.

Dartmouth has now lost 4 straight and was shut out at home by rival New Hampshire. Wow.

Cornell had to come from behind to beat Lehigh, pretty sure Lehigh led most of the game.

And Yale only led bad Bucknell 7-3 HT and struggled to even cover the 2H number as they scored late thanks to Bucknell going for 4th down deep in their own territory late 4th Q.

This was not the day I would've wanted people to watch Ivy football as a way to promote the league. Knowing what else was going on today, I don't think many people watched Ivy football today anyway.