Ivy League Week 4

[s--k]

Friday, October 7, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Friday 10/7/2022	Harvard -10.5 / 53.5	Cornell	7:00 P.M.	Ithaca, N.Y. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN Networks Stats Video

Saturday, October 8, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Saturday 10/8/2022	Dartmouth	Yale -4 / 56.5	12:00 P.M.	New Haven, Conn. (Conf.)	ESPN+
Saturday 10/8/2022	Princeton -14.5 / 38.5	Lafayette	12:30 P.M.	Easton, Pa.	ESPN+
Saturday 10/8/2022	Brown -7 / 58.5	Central Connecticut State	1:00 P.M.	New Britain, Conn.	NEC Live Stream
Saturday 10/8/2022	Wagner	Columbia -25 / 51	1:00 P.M.	New York, N.Y.	ESPN+
Saturday 10/8/2022	Penn -14.5 / 42.5	Georgetown	2:00 P.M.	Washington, D.C.	ESPN+

School	Conf	CPct.	Overall	Pct.	Streak
Penn	1-0	1.000	3-0	1.000	W3
Princeton	1-0	1.000	3-0	1.000	W3
Harvard	1-0	1.000	2-1	.667	L1
Yale	1-0	1.000	2-1	.667	W2
Columbia	0-1	.000	2-1	.667	L1
Cornell	0-1	.000	2-1	.667	W1
Brown	0-1	.000	1-2	.333	L2
Dartmouth	0-1	.000	1-2	.333	L2

 

[STEED]

:cheers3:

 

[s--k]

Harvard comes into tomorrows game 0-3 ATS. Last week vs a good Holy Cross team, the Crimson played pretty well, although their D got knocked around more than it typically does. But that Holy Cross O will do that to a lot of FCS teams. Harvard fumbled twice in their own territory and had a punt blk'd deep in their own territory all of which led to 17 HC pts in the 21-30 loss. HC outgained them 477-366 (7.0-5.6). Harvad O continues to be a little uneven, the passing game found some big plays and Borguet does what he typically does running the ball and they continue to be good in the RZ this year after struggling there last season. The O is not consistent or efficient however. In two of their three games this season they converted just 6-of-25 combined on 3rd down, while vs Brown D they made 6-of-15. I continue to think that this is not a championship level O, they are just kind of average, maybe in terms of Ivy League offenses (not a league really known for offense), I suppose they are above average.

As I said, a good QB and O like Holy Cross has is going to be a challenge. The best thing Harvard did in this game was limit HC's RZ trips to just 1 TD. That gave them a chance to be in it, the O just wasn't there. Harvard scored a TD to open the 2H, then never got further than the HC42 the rest of the 2H.

Cornell has been a surprise. They ware 2-0 in nonconference play now and that guarantee's them their first winning season out of conference since 2016. They have won two road games as underdogs of 14 and 4 so far. In their first road win week 1 at VMI the Big Red only outgained them by 10 yards and VMI had a significant ypp advantage over them. This week vs Colgate, Cornell held a 474-383 TY edge (6.9-5.7). In fact, a better QB performance is hard to find from them historicially. Jameson Wang passed for 284 and rushed for 98, Cornell has never had a 300y passer and a 100y rusher. Give some perspective. Cornell is proving superior to their weaker out of conference opponents, but just two weeks ago Yale handed them a 24 pt home loss. Yale ended up closing a 9 pt road favorite there and won 38-14. It was 28-7 HT. Yale is not an overly strong defensive team but limited Cornell's O really well allowing them just 184 total yards (3.9 ypp). Yale also sacked them 5x. That result makes Cornell 2-1 ATS overall.

So it is an interesting game this Friday in that Harvard is not living up to the kind of expectations anyone has for them, and I'm sure they are not living up to their own internal expectations. But they are 1-0 in the Ivy League and that 1 win was just a 35-28 road win at Brown, but Harvard led 21-0 HT and 28-0 before allowing a Brown comeback. Harvard did have a 468-393 yardage edge in that one (7.7-4.3) and I recall they were plagued by key penalties at critical moments that fueled Brown's comeback. It should also be noted, not only is Harvard 0-3 ATS full game spreads, but they are 0-3 ATS in the 2H as well this year.

Last season this game was 7-3 Cornell lead! Harvard won the 2H 21-3 for the 24-10 non covering final as 24.5 HF. Harvard did outgain them last year 343-299 (5.1-4.1) with a key variable being Harvard's lack of RZ success, as they often had last season. In that game they scored just 1 TD on 4 RZ trips.

This year it would seem to have the making of a "get right game" for the Harvard O who has generally been getting better weekly. They still have yet to play a good complete game on O. Where as Colgate just had their best offensive showing of the season last week vs Cornell as was Yale's O vs their D two weeks prior. I doubt the Cornell D is going to be much of a challenge, but Harvard does find their own challenges on O regardless of competition sometimes.

An interesting angle is a Cornell O and QB that has some confidence and success this season and the Holy Cross game and the 2H vs Brown shows the Harvard D is mortal...and Merrimack's QB did have some moments vs them as well. Perhaps for Cornell the Yale game is a better indicator where they were held to just 14 pts and under 200y of total O. On paper Harvard should be every bit as capable as Yale of coming up with that kind of performance. We will have to see how this shakes out. I'd expect Harvard O to do well, Cornell O is where the question comes in.

Harvard has won 13 of the last 15, however Harvard has lost the last two straight up in Ithica (24-28 2018 as a 8.5 fav and 14-17 2017).

Unders are normally good to considerin Ivy play, not sure it applies this week or not. So far this year Harvard has gone Over 2 out of 3 (51 on a 46.5 total and 63 on a 60.5 total while their only under was 49 combined pts on a 50.5 total in OT). Cornell has 1 over, 1 under and 1 push (65 on a 44 pt total vs Colgate, 52 on a 54.5 pt total vs VMI and 52 on a 52 pt total vs Yale).

 

[s--k]

Some former Ivy League players have made an impact on Thursday night NFL games this year. A few weeks ago former Penn WR and current KC Chief Justin Watson burned JC Jackson for a TD and last night former Yale S and current Colt DB Rodney Thomas got an INT.

Looking over some of the statistics and numbers, here are some interesting notes:

Nick Howard of Dartmouth leads the league with 116.67 ypg rushing, but he is the worst rated passer and Dartmouth is only averaging 94.33 ypg passing and have completed just 28-of-49 attempts.

Princeton QB Blake Stenstrom passes for the most ypg in the league at 268, he's the #2 rated passer, but Princeton has allowed 12 sacks in 3 games on 102 pass attempts. The next most sacked QB is Willcox from Brown, sacked 7x on 123 pass attempts. And the Princeton run game is completely nonexistent at 2.44 ypc, 80.67 ypg (both last).

Cornell QB Jameson Wang is the Ivy's #1 rated passer, but in terms of ypg, Cornell is second to last with 157.33ypg. Big Red has also attempted and completed the second fewest.

Columbia QB Joe Green is completing 71.88% (best), but just for 8.70 yards per completion (worst). Harvard's Charlie Dean is #1 yards per compl at 12.45

Harvard WR Kim Wimberly is #1 with 24 catches, #1 in receiving yards per game 97.33 and receiving TDs at 3. Fellow Crimson WR Hatch is #1 with 25.33 yards per catch

Princeton is the #1 scoring team 30.67 ppg. Yale, Columbia and Harvard all avg 28+ ppg. Penn is last at 20 ppg. But Penn has the best scoring D allowing just 10.33 ppg

Princeton has a +6 turnover margin, Brown is -5 (Brown has thrown 7 INTs)

Columbia has the best 3rd down conversion rate 56.25%, Harvard and Princeton are tied for the worst 30%. Columbia D has the best Opp 3rd down allowed % at 23.68 and surprisingly Harvard is last there too, 43.33%

Yale has only allowed 1 sack, Princeton sacked 12x

Harvard D has the most sacks with 14, Brown has the fewest with 1

Harvard DL Nate Leskovec is #1 sacks with 4.5

Penn DE/LB Jake Heimlicher is #1 TFLs with 7

Harvard is the most penalized team, Dartmouth the least

Princeton has the best RZ D (1 TD allowed on 5 trips with 3 turnovers, 40% scores allowed) - Cornell has the worst (8 TDs on 13 chances, allowed 11 of 13 total scores, 84.62%)

Penn has best RZ O (8 TDs on 11 chances, 100% total scores) - Columbia the worst (6 TDs on 11 chances, 63.64% total scores)

 

[s--k]

Brown 2-1 ATS
0-3 ATS 1H
3-0 ATS 2H
Overs 2-1

Columbia 2-1 ATS
2-1 ATS 1H
1-2 ATS 2H
Overs 0-3

Cornell 2-1 ATS
2-1 ATS 1H
0-3 ATS 2H
Overs 1-1-1

Dartmouth 0-3 ATS
0-3 ATS 1H
0-3 ATS 2H
Overs 2-1

Harvard 0-3 ATS
2-1 ATS 1H
0-3 ATS 2H
Overs 2-1

Penn 3-0 ATS
1-1-1 ATS 1H
3-0 ATS 2H
Overs 0-3

Princeton 1-2 ATS
1-2 ATS 1H
2-1 ATS 2H
Overs 0-3

Yale 1-2 ATS
1-2 ATS 1H
1-2 ATS 2H
Overs 1-0-2

 

[s--k]

Dartmouth -8.5 beat Yale in OT last year 24-17. Yale outgained them 314-277, but scored just 1 TD on 3 RZ trips. A late 4th Q targeting penalty on Yale kept a Dartmouth game-tying drive alive. Grooms had not yet taken over the starring QB joblbut he played in this game last year throwing a TD pass. Dartmouth QB Nick Howard ran for 43y and 2 TDs in his then-off the bench role. This is certainly an interesting game given where Dartmouth finds themselves, off back-to-back losses as DD favorites. Nick Howard simply is not a viable threat to pass, but when Dartmouth can run, they can still be an effective O. Last week, Penn's D is good and better than the Yale D, so there is a likelihood that Dartmouth O finds better success this week compared to last. The other difference on the 2022 Big Green is the regression they are facing on D with some significant losses from last year's team. Yale possesses a streaky QB in Nolan Grooms, but they have some good potential on O depending on how Grooms is playing. Seeing Yale favored is historically surprising, at least recently as Dartmouth has won 4 straight in the series and 8 of the last 9. The line reflects perception of where the teams currently are. I would've loved Dartmouth to come in here unblemished and picked up Yale as a dog, but that wasn't to be and with them as a FG+ favorite it is hard to feel great about laying it. I would think Yale can win this given what we've seen from Dartmouth, but I'm also not ready to trust the Yale D.

I had bet against Lafayette after week 1 up until last week, 3 wins in a row. They won vs Bucknell last week, however that happened, I don't know or care. Lafayette and Bucknell both are bad teams, ones that can reliably be bet against weekly. Princeton last played them in 2019 and won 28-3. Princeton has won 11 straight vs them and owns a 44-4-3 all time record in the series. As I have mentioned and indicated in a few of the statistical observations above, there are some problems within this Princeton O, specifically their OL and running game. This is not a game where any of those deficiencies should matter. Slight chance Lafayette can get some pressure as most have on Princeton and the Princeton QB could be forced into some bad decisions. But in all reality this is a game that Princeton should have their way in, any way they want it and the Tiger D has been good enough to keep a team like Lafayette pinned down to like 10 or 13 pts max. Princeton didn't cover vs Lehigh, but Lehigh is a better team than Lafayette and looking back at the Lehigh game, Princeton wasn't too far off from covering that one if we change a couple plays around.

If you see Brown a road favorite then you know the team they are playing must be awful, and they are, Central Conn State. CCSU is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. Believe it or not I actually lost on the only game that CCSU has covered this year, doh! This is a bad team with losses of 13-39 to St Francis, 26-45 to Albany, 6-70 to SE La, 10-14 to Sacred Heart (the game I bet) and 3-28 to UConn. Brown actually has not shown any drop off on O by losing Perry at QB. Brown should be fine here on O and I would suspect their D is good enough to get the win as well. However, this is homecoming for CCSU (Sacred Heart beat Dartmouth on homecoming a couple weeks back) and they also have a bye on deck. I might be afraid that CCSU puts together their best effort here vs a team they view as beatable, so while I would pick Brown to win, laying the pts with them on the road...yikes...Brown lost straight up as 1.5 pt road fav at Bryant last year and barely won as a 3.5 pt fav at Bryant in 2019.

Columbia is off their disappointing home loss to Princeton, a measuring stick game, a 'we have arrived' game for Columbia and their O was completely shut down. The Lion D was better than the score might imply as Princeton really didn't have much O either, it was just compounding of Columbia errors that aided Princeton for the most part. How Columbia rebounds from that kind of a big let-down game will be key. Most of us don't know anything about Wagner other than their two games vs FBS this year, both 59 pt losses. They are 0-4 with their closest loss being 17 pts. They are supposed to have some big deal DL player, but the Columbia OL has been good this year. Their assumed #1 RB played for the first time last week, so the Columbia O has all their pieces together. I laid it vs Marist and Georgetown with Columbia, but this line is pretty big even though the opponent is bad, I'm not sure they are really worse than Marist or Georgetown. Columbia wasn't that great against Georgetown in the 1H. I'm hesitant to lay this many with them, but I have to assume Columbia wins by a couple scores.

Penn at Georgetown is the last one on the schedule and I really like how the Penn D has played this year. Heimlicher on D is really good player, disruptive, makes things happen. The Penn O, it has been good enough at times, but really not good consistently. They started slow vs both Colgate in the opener and vs Lafayette. They weren't real good on O vs Dartmouth, but did have a nice opening drive and then their final drive to tie the game was clutch. I'd think vs a weaker D they should be able to crack 20 pts? They only scored 12 vs Lafayette, so.... Georgetown is bad, 1-4, only win vs Marist. Columbia blew the Hoya's out in the 2H, but I'd rate Columbia better all around than Penn. If I had to I would lay it with Penn, but the O just doesn't give much confidence. 42.5 seems high for this game.

 

[oakas]

Hey s--k. There was a guy that used to post on different forums a while back. Like you, he was very good and knew The Ivy League very well. Is your name Evan or posted under that name?

I really enjoy reading your write-ups.

 

[s--k]

No my name is Scott.

I really want to learn and follow this league because I have an odd very strong appeal to it - almost unexplainable. I'm listening to Harvard pregame radio show right now! There is just too much football honestly...this summer I envisioned myself reading each team's game notes every week and giving Ivy games to the main featured TVs. That just hasn't happened because there is so much other stuff to digest and games to watch.

Maybe in the coming years Ivy League and FCS gets more popular and we have better choice and outlets when it comes to plays we can make on their games. I really really wanted to do some preseason win totals or bet odds to win the conference. Come to find out, there are no FCS win totals or conference odds for anyone.

 

[s--k]

I just lost the Harvard 1H 13-7 (-7). Harvard has atleast 7 penalites against them so far. The most penalized team in the Ivy, and they matter. Roughing QB kept Cornell's 17p 80+y 10min TD drive alive. Harvard was 0-2 scoring TDs in the Red Zone. Their only TD was a blk'd punt return. Harvard must be the 'worst' 'best' team I've ever seen. They dropped a TD, another would be TD off the hands of the receiver...then they have a couple near-miss turnovers on O as well (they did fumble once in Cornell territory). I feel kind of compelled to try them again 2H figuring they can't play that bad again, but they just keep doing things wrong, I should probably stay off it. Harvard D adjusted after the first Cornell drive where they kept blitzing guys and Wang just quickly hit open receivers short. Wang hasn't been comfortable the rest of the half. Cornell had 89 yards on their opening drive. They have 7 the rest of the 1H.

 

[s--k]

I got burned by Harvard. They are now 0-4 ATS, 0-4 ATS 2H. Their O scored the points they should've also scored in the 1H, but the penalties and costly turnovers continued. Cornell got 3 FDs by way of penalty after 3rd downs where they would've been punting or attempting a FG - instead drives continued. Harvard got up by 13 and 14 in the 2H, but could hold either lead.

I have a theory on Ivy League games. It will take some time to research and test. Suspicion is favorites in this league do poorly and there is a long history of surprising results, competitive games that shouldn't be on paper and upsets.

 

[s--k]

Howard didn't play for Dartmouth. Their backup is a passing QB and for the first time this year they looked like they could actually have balance and complete passes. Not good enough to win though.

Princeton could've had some more points. Good passing O when their OL protects, even vs Lafayette, the OL was leaky. Lafayette continues to be a very bad football team. Their only points were a blk'd xpt ran back the other way for 2. They really never threatened to score on O.

Central Conn was inside the 10 yard line to end the game, they could've got a first down on 4th, but were ruled short. Seemed to be some controversy with the spot. I had the game Under so it worked out for me to avoid a potential tie and OT.

I think Wagner's only TD was set up by some kind of weird bad snap or backwards fumble. They suck. Columbia only led 7-0 HT, they covered 2H number.

The shocker of the day was Penn scoring 59! 59 by Penn! It was 24-14 HT and since I thought the original total was high, I took the 2H Under 18.5! Doh! Georgetown ran the 2H KO back and that set in motion 49 2H points. Wow.

 

[twinkie13]

Some former Ivy League players have made an impact on Thursday night NFL games this year. A few weeks ago former Penn WR and current KC Chief Justin Watson burned JC Jackson for a TD and last night former Yale S and current Colt DB Rodney Thomas got an INT.

Looking over some of the statistics and numbers, here are some interesting notes:

Nick Howard of Dartmouth leads the league with 116.67 ypg rushing, but he is the worst rated passer and Dartmouth is only averaging 94.33 ypg passing and have completed just 28-of-49 attempts.

Princeton QB Blake Stenstrom passes for the most ypg in the league at 268, he's the #2 rated passer, but Princeton has allowed 12 sacks in 3 games on 102 pass attempts. The next most sacked QB is Willcox from Brown, sacked 7x on 123 pass attempts. And the Princeton run game is completely nonexistent at 2.44 ypc, 80.67 ypg (both last).

Cornell QB Jameson Wang is the Ivy's #1 rated passer, but in terms of ypg, Cornell is second to last with 157.33ypg. Big Red has also attempted and completed the second fewest.

Columbia QB Joe Green is completing 71.88% (best), but just for 8.70 yards per completion (worst). Harvard's Charlie Dean is #1 yards per compl at 12.45

Harvard WR Kim Wimberly is #1 with 24 catches, #1 in receiving yards per game 97.33 and receiving TDs at 3. Fellow Crimson WR Hatch is #1 with 25.33 yards per catch

Princeton is the #1 scoring team 30.67 ppg. Yale, Columbia and Harvard all avg 28+ ppg. Penn is last at 20 ppg. But Penn has the best scoring D allowing just 10.33 ppg

Princeton has a +6 turnover margin, Brown is -5 (Brown has thrown 7 INTs)

Columbia has the best 3rd down conversion rate 56.25%, Harvard and Princeton are tied for the worst 30%. Columbia D has the best Opp 3rd down allowed % at 23.68 and surprisingly Harvard is last there too, 43.33%

Yale has only allowed 1 sack, Princeton sacked 12x

Harvard D has the most sacks with 14, Brown has the fewest with 1

Harvard DL Nate Leskovec is #1 sacks with 4.5

Penn DE/LB Jake Heimlicher is #1 TFLs with 7

Harvard is the most penalized team, Dartmouth the least

Princeton has the best RZ D (1 TD allowed on 5 trips with 3 turnovers, 40% scores allowed) - Cornell has the worst (8 TDs on 13 chances, allowed 11 of 13 total scores, 84.62%)

Penn has best RZ O (8 TDs on 11 chances, 100% total scores) - Columbia the worst (6 TDs on 11 chances, 63.64% total scores)

Great stat on the NFL…always wonder which guys make it

 

[s--k]

Great stat on the NFL…always wonder which guys make it

There are a few around. It is cool when they make impactful plays. The primary FB for San Fran is from Harvard. There was a LB on Atlanta last year, he might've led the NFL in tackles last year. He got traded to Jax. He's from the Ivy League, I forget where. Yale?

I like this league. The only thing I really miss about the games is the lack of fan atmosphere. Harvard - Yale has it in spades, and a couple of the other rivalries, but that is it. I had on a bunch of lower tier MAC and Sun Belt games and they have way more fan enthusiasm and support than Ivy stadiums see.