s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Any Ivy League players? I've made some plays this year and I liked it! Last Saturday out of 10 possible games I could've had on TV/tablets at noon, I had two Ivy games on. I kinda like it.
Penn is the worst team in Ivy League. Vs Ivy League they were outgained by the following margins:
260 (3.6) - 444 (6.6) vs Yale lost 28-42
268 (3.9) - 426 (6.2) vs Columbia lost 14-23
141 (3.8) - 413 (5.7) vs Dartmouth lost 7-31
Granted, Columbia plays some good D, but Columbia does not do that on O. Columbia has only put up 239 (3.6) on Dartmouth, 338 (5.0) on Central Conn, 202 (3.1) on Princeton, 354 (5.8) on Georgetown. But 426 on Penn. Except for the game Columbia had week 1 vs Marist, their output vs Penn was by far their best on the season.
The Penn D is bad. The Penn O is bad. Penn had 260 (3.6) yards on Princeton and did score 28 points on just 260 yards, must've been some funny business - that is their high water mark for points in Ivy league play and it is a fluke. Penn scored 14 on Columbia on the 268 (3.9) TY. They only scored 20 on Lehigh (game was 0-0 halftime). Lehigh is 0-7 and everyone scored more than 20 on them. Lafayette upset Penn 24-14, Lafayette is only 2-5. Penn only scored 7 on Dartmouth, which again, Dartmouth is a good D, but still, 7 points and 141 TY.
Penn is 2-4 overall and 0-3 vs Ivy League. They are 2-4 ATS. They covered laying 10 week 1 vs Bucknell 30-6. Bucknell by the way is the only other team Lafayette has beat. Penn's other cover was last week losing by 14 catching 15. A game they were outgained by 180 yards.
Penn isn't good at passing. 43% completions last week vs Yale. 24% vs Columbia. 38% vs Dartmouth. And it isn't like they are some option team who doesn't pass. They try to pass, 13-of-30 vs Yale. 6-of-25 vs Columbia. 6-of-16 vs Dartmouth. Penn can run on bad teams (like Lehigh and Lafayette and Bucknell), but they haven't been able to run on their Ivy League opponents to date, avg just 113 ypg (2.9).
So I've established Penn is bad. Penn is 1-5 ATS in the 1st H, their only cover was week 1 vs Bucknell. Penn has been shutout twice in the 2nd H in 3 Ivy games.
Brown travels to Penn this week. Brown was my first Ivy bet this year on a Friday night vs Harvard. I was betting on what was supposed to be some offensive prowess. Harvard was a buzz saw that night. Turns out Harvard is one of the top defenses in the league little did I know at the time. Now I know. Since being held to 360 (5.1) TY vs Harvard, Brown has gained 490 (5.6) vs Princeton and 587 (7.1) vs Cornell in their other Ivy games. They also put up 444 (6.5) on Colgate 3 games ago. Brown started the season 0-3, they've won their last 3. They can run it (312 on Cornell) or they can pass it (over 300y passing every game this year other than the one they ran for 300 in, they passed for just 275 vs Cornell) and they hit a good % behind one of the best QBs in the Ivy, EJ Perry. Brown has the Ivy's #1 total O.
Penn is 1pt home fav vs Brown!
Too easy, what am I missing?
The Brown D is bad, they are last in total D in Ivy. Even so, if they get in a shootout vs a normally bad Penn O, if that happens, Brown can win a shootout. They just did it vs Cornell last week, winning 49-45. Brown scored 42 on Princeton. Nobody scores 42 on Princeton, Brown did. The next highest points allowed by Princeton is 28 (Monmouth).
So even if the Brown D is a liability it has been in other games this year, since the Penn D is bad too, they should not be stopping or slowing down Brown O much.
What's the other catch?
Brown turns it over a lot. 4 last week. 3 vs Colgate. 3 vs Bryant. 3 vs Harvard and 4 week 1 vs Rhode Island.
Brown with the bad D and turnover prone. Penn with the bad O and bad D. Those are the variables.
I don't know why Penn is favored. I think it is the PR and oddsmakers still catching up to Brown's poor start to the season. Brown not only opened 0-3, but they opened 0-3 ATS. Since then they are 3-0 SU and ATS with a 21 pt win as 3pt favorite (Colgate), 14 pt loss catching 21 (Princeton) and upset win +4 at Cornell. I bet Brown last week as I thought Brown had just as much of a chance as winning as Cornell and I was getting 4 pts for insurance. They won outright, although it was a back-and-forth game. I also think that Penn's final scores have not looked as bad as the box scores, for whatever reason, I am not knowledgeable yet on how those outcomes have occurred. So the perceived closeness of their games might be keeping line value their way, but the games haven't been as close as the scores imply.
I assume this line is current. I only see it showing as a 5Dimes line, but it has been updated once this week. Was Penn -1.5, now -1. Brown should win this game.
Maybe I'll have some other Ivy League thoughts tomorrow.
Penn is the worst team in Ivy League. Vs Ivy League they were outgained by the following margins:
260 (3.6) - 444 (6.6) vs Yale lost 28-42
268 (3.9) - 426 (6.2) vs Columbia lost 14-23
141 (3.8) - 413 (5.7) vs Dartmouth lost 7-31
Granted, Columbia plays some good D, but Columbia does not do that on O. Columbia has only put up 239 (3.6) on Dartmouth, 338 (5.0) on Central Conn, 202 (3.1) on Princeton, 354 (5.8) on Georgetown. But 426 on Penn. Except for the game Columbia had week 1 vs Marist, their output vs Penn was by far their best on the season.
The Penn D is bad. The Penn O is bad. Penn had 260 (3.6) yards on Princeton and did score 28 points on just 260 yards, must've been some funny business - that is their high water mark for points in Ivy league play and it is a fluke. Penn scored 14 on Columbia on the 268 (3.9) TY. They only scored 20 on Lehigh (game was 0-0 halftime). Lehigh is 0-7 and everyone scored more than 20 on them. Lafayette upset Penn 24-14, Lafayette is only 2-5. Penn only scored 7 on Dartmouth, which again, Dartmouth is a good D, but still, 7 points and 141 TY.
Penn is 2-4 overall and 0-3 vs Ivy League. They are 2-4 ATS. They covered laying 10 week 1 vs Bucknell 30-6. Bucknell by the way is the only other team Lafayette has beat. Penn's other cover was last week losing by 14 catching 15. A game they were outgained by 180 yards.
Penn isn't good at passing. 43% completions last week vs Yale. 24% vs Columbia. 38% vs Dartmouth. And it isn't like they are some option team who doesn't pass. They try to pass, 13-of-30 vs Yale. 6-of-25 vs Columbia. 6-of-16 vs Dartmouth. Penn can run on bad teams (like Lehigh and Lafayette and Bucknell), but they haven't been able to run on their Ivy League opponents to date, avg just 113 ypg (2.9).
So I've established Penn is bad. Penn is 1-5 ATS in the 1st H, their only cover was week 1 vs Bucknell. Penn has been shutout twice in the 2nd H in 3 Ivy games.
Brown travels to Penn this week. Brown was my first Ivy bet this year on a Friday night vs Harvard. I was betting on what was supposed to be some offensive prowess. Harvard was a buzz saw that night. Turns out Harvard is one of the top defenses in the league little did I know at the time. Now I know. Since being held to 360 (5.1) TY vs Harvard, Brown has gained 490 (5.6) vs Princeton and 587 (7.1) vs Cornell in their other Ivy games. They also put up 444 (6.5) on Colgate 3 games ago. Brown started the season 0-3, they've won their last 3. They can run it (312 on Cornell) or they can pass it (over 300y passing every game this year other than the one they ran for 300 in, they passed for just 275 vs Cornell) and they hit a good % behind one of the best QBs in the Ivy, EJ Perry. Brown has the Ivy's #1 total O.
Penn is 1pt home fav vs Brown!
Too easy, what am I missing?
The Brown D is bad, they are last in total D in Ivy. Even so, if they get in a shootout vs a normally bad Penn O, if that happens, Brown can win a shootout. They just did it vs Cornell last week, winning 49-45. Brown scored 42 on Princeton. Nobody scores 42 on Princeton, Brown did. The next highest points allowed by Princeton is 28 (Monmouth).
So even if the Brown D is a liability it has been in other games this year, since the Penn D is bad too, they should not be stopping or slowing down Brown O much.
What's the other catch?
Brown turns it over a lot. 4 last week. 3 vs Colgate. 3 vs Bryant. 3 vs Harvard and 4 week 1 vs Rhode Island.
Brown with the bad D and turnover prone. Penn with the bad O and bad D. Those are the variables.
I don't know why Penn is favored. I think it is the PR and oddsmakers still catching up to Brown's poor start to the season. Brown not only opened 0-3, but they opened 0-3 ATS. Since then they are 3-0 SU and ATS with a 21 pt win as 3pt favorite (Colgate), 14 pt loss catching 21 (Princeton) and upset win +4 at Cornell. I bet Brown last week as I thought Brown had just as much of a chance as winning as Cornell and I was getting 4 pts for insurance. They won outright, although it was a back-and-forth game. I also think that Penn's final scores have not looked as bad as the box scores, for whatever reason, I am not knowledgeable yet on how those outcomes have occurred. So the perceived closeness of their games might be keeping line value their way, but the games haven't been as close as the scores imply.
I assume this line is current. I only see it showing as a 5Dimes line, but it has been updated once this week. Was Penn -1.5, now -1. Brown should win this game.
Maybe I'll have some other Ivy League thoughts tomorrow.
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