Ivy League November 5-6

[s--k]

Week 8 in the Ivy League:

DATE	TIME	GAME	ODDS
Friday, Nov. 5	6 p.m.	#16 Princeton at Dartmouth	Princeton -1.5 / 44.5
Saturday, Nov. 6	12 p.m.	Yale at Brown	Yale -11.5 / 67
	1 p.m.	Cornell at Penn	Penn -7 / 42
	1 p.m.	Harvard at Columbia	Harvard -9 / 38.5

School	Conf	CPct.	Overall	Pct.	Streak
Princeton	4-0	1.000	7-0	1.000	W7
Dartmouth	3-1	0.750	6-1	0.857	W1
Yale	3-1	0.750	4-3	0.571	W2
Columbia	2-2	0.500	5-2	0.714	L1
Harvard	2-2	0.500	5-2	0.714	L2
Penn	1-3	0.250	3-4	0.429	W1
Brown	1-3	0.250	2-5	0.286	L1
Cornell	0-4	0.000	1-6	0.143	L2

 

[s--k]

Princeton
Full Game: 2-4-1 ATS.....0-4 ATS vs Ivy (avg line 16.125)
Full Game: Overs 4-3.....Overs 2-2 vs Ivy (avg total 52.25)
1st H: 3-4 ATS.....1-3 ATS vs Ivy (avg line 9.125).....Overs 2-5.....Overs 2-2 vs Ivy (avg total 27.375)
2nd H: 3-4 ATS.....0-4 ATS vs Ivy (avg line 7.625).....Overs 3-4.....Overs 1-3 vs Ivy (avg total 25.625)


Favored in every game. Only covers were first two games of season vs Lehigh and Stetson (both shutouts), pushed vs Monmouth (game winning FG with :10 left).

Vs Ivy
Princeton 1st H avg = 17.75 pts
Opponent 1st H avg = 9.25

Princeton 2nd H avg = 15.25 pts
Opponent 2nd H avg = 11 pts

Princeton PPG = 33 avg
Opponent PPG = 20.25 avg

Dartmouth
Full Game: 4-3 ATS.....2-2 ATS vs Ivy (avg line as 3x fav 11.6, line 1x as dog 6)
Full Game: Overs 2-5.....Overs 0-4 vs Ivy (avg total 43.5)
1st H: 4-3 ATS.....2-2 ATS vs Ivy (avg line as 3x fav 6.3, line 1x as dog 3.5).....Overs 3-4.....Overs 2-2 vs Ivy (avg total 22.375)
2nd H: 4-3 ATS.....2-2 ATS vs Ivy.....Overs 4-3.....Overs 1-3 vs Ivy (avg total 20.625)

2-0 ATS as dog, both outright upsets, 1-0 ATS & SU as dog vs Ivy. Covered 1st H, 2nd H and game in upset win at Harvard.

Vs Ivy
Dartmouth 1st H avg = 12 pts
Opponent 1st H avg = 9.25 pts

Dartmouth 2nd H avg = 6.75 pts
Opponent 2nd H avg = 5.75 pts

Dartmouth PPG = 18.75 avg
Opponent PPG = 15 avg

 

[s--k]

Just looking at some box score data and stuff, last week Dartmouth bounced back off being shut out at home vs Columbia. They beat Harvard 20-17 as 6 pt road dog. Defenses controlled the 1st H. Dartmouth did not convert a single 3rd down, but did convert a 4th down that put them into FG range at the end of the 1st H to lead 10-7 HT. Dartmouth outgained them 175-83 in the 1st H (117 of their yards came on two scoring drives - 81 of Harvard's yards were on their scoring drive!). Harvard returned the 2nd H KO to go up 14-10, but the Harvard O would still struggle. Dartmouth was again able to go on a TD drive without facing or converting a 3rd down to go up 17-14 end of 3rd Q. Dartmouth outgained them 151-13 in the 3rd Q. Harvard missed and made a FG to tie 17-17. Dartmouth went on 4min drive to kick FG :44 left 20-17. Harvard got in position for a 53y FG that was missed. Harvard missed two 4th Q FGs. Dartmouth only converted 1-of-14 3rd downs in the game, but they gained 393 TY (5.6) which is the most yards Harvard's D has allowed this year and only the second time Harvard has allowed an opponent over 300 TY. Dartmouth also outrushed them 117-68 (3.2-2.3). Dartmouth D held them to 223 TY (3.8) which was a new low for the Crimson O. Harvard was held to 234 TY (3.0) the week prior in the OT loss to Princeton. Harvard came in with 29 sacks in 6 games, including 16 the previous two games, but they only sacked Dartmouth 2x. Harvard did lose two turnovers, but neither really hurt their field position nor did they help Dartmouth much (Dartmouth punted back both times with Harvard taking over near where they lost those turnovers the previous drive).

 

[s--k]

Princeton had an easy win at Cornell. Tigers scored on their first 5 possessions of the game plus a fumble return TD on D and a short field after an INT to lead 27-10 HT and 34-10. Princeton seemed to shut it down after their 6th possession as they went 3-and-out 5 of their next 7 poss with a 6th punt after a short drive and a fumble. While this was happening in the 2nd H Cornell was SOD at the P31 and P35. They were also SOD at the P41 on their first drive of the game. The 2nd H scoring was just 7-6 for Princeton (Cornell went for 2 after their TD). Cornell actually outgained them 357-328 (5.0-4.7), but Cornell wasn't really able to sustain drives and like I said Princeton kinda stopped in the 2nd H. The 357 yards allowed were the second most Princeton has allowed this year (most were 490 to Brown). Princeton D has now only allowed two teams over 300 yards TY on them.

 

[s--k]

This is the 100th meeting between Princeton and Dartmouth! Each team had a 6 game win streak in the series in the last 20 years.

2019 at Yankee stadium Dartmouth won 27-10 (both entered unbeaten)
2018 at Princeton won 14-9 (both entered unbeaten)
2017 at Dartmouth won 54-44
2016 at Princeton won 38-21

Princeton hasn't won at Dartmouth since 2009 losing the last 4 there. Princeton is however on a 12 game road win streak.

Dartmouth is the defending Ivy League Champion (2019 - shared with Yale)

 

[s--k]

Line adjustment after opening at more outlets now, Princeton -3.5 / 47

 

[s--k]

Settling back to 3 / 46.

Princeton has the Ivy's #1 scoring O (33), #3 Total O (384), #2 Rush O (135.5), #2 pass eff O, #4 pass yard O (248), #3 3rd down O (41.4%) and #2 4th down O (7 att 71%), #2 RZ O (but 10 of 18 TDs).

I think some of the offensive prowess from Princeton is a little fake. Even if we throw out the Cornell game (weather were up big), Harvard and Columbia both held Princeton to to 257 (3.3) and 300 (4.2) yards respectively. Princeton has padded it's stats vs Brown (56 pts, 650 yards). I'm looking only at Ivy games, but their games vs Lehigh and Stetson really skew the numbers if you look at total season stats.

Vs the two best defenses Princeton has played, Columbia and Harvard, Princeton scored just 42 points combined and that includes OT vs Harvard.

Princeton D is mostly mid-pack.

Dartmouth has the Ivy's #1 scoring D (15), #1 total D (229), #3 rush D (82), #3 pass eff D, #1 pass yard D (147), #3 3rd down D (27%) but last 4th down D (7 att 85%), #2 RZ D (4 of 9 TDs allowed).

Dartmouth held a good Yale O 90 yards and 12 points below their O yardage and scoring averages. Harvard, Columbia and Penn are not very good Os, but Dartmouth did hold them all below their average yardage.

The problem for Dartmouth is they don't have much offense ranking last in Ivy in scoring O (19), but 5th in total yardage O (336). Biggest issue for them is red zone, last only scoring 67% of the time and just 6 of 15 TDs! Columbia shut them out a couple weeks ago at home (Dartmouth outgained them but was 0-2 in RZ). They did however bounce back and put up a 393 yard (5.6 ypp) game vs solid Harvard D last week.

Intangibles would seem to favor Dartmouth. They return home where they were shut out two weeks ago. Not sure that angle works for 2 weeks as it was an angle to play on them last week. But this is the first game back home since the shut out, I'm sure it still pisses them off. They are the defending Ivy Champ and get to host the leader for the Ivy Title this year. They are 2-0 both ATS and pulled 2 upsets as dogs this year (Harvard and New Hampshire). Princeton is 7-0 SU, but has not yet covered an Ivy League game going 0-4 ATS.

The Under looks appealing at 46.5. I might like just a little more incentive than 3 to take Dartmouth.

 

[s--k]

The other Ivy games look difficult to pick right now.

I got burned by Penn last week playing on Brown, but man seeing Penn lay 7 this week is baiting me again.

Penn scored 45 points this week on just 296 yards although it was 6.2 ypp. They scored on D and were +3 turnovers. They weren't more than +1 in any other game this year. They had 8 sacks! Penn entered with just 1 sack in 3 previous Ivy games! Brown outgained them with 411 TY but just 4.3 ypp and a very poor 5-of-18 3rd down. I knew that Brown's D and turnovers was an issue, but I trusted their O would still be good enough vs a bad on paper Penn team. Didn't work for me.

Cornell and Penn rank very similarly across the board in Ivy D, both in the bottom 1/3 of the stat rankings. They are both below average to bad in most offensive categories.

Cornell goes for a TON of 4th downs, 16 in 4 games! They are converting 37.5% of those. Penn has the worst 3rd down D 41% and the second worst 4th down D 63.6%. How and where those conversions succeed or fail will play a role in the outcome here.

Penn scored 45 vs Brown last week after scoring just 49 in their previous three combined Ivy games.
Cornell scored 45 vs Brown 2 weeks ago after scoring just 43 in their other three combined Ivy games.

I see a theme!

I might find myself on a small Cornell +7 bet. Cornell is 3-0 ATS as a dog vs Ivy league, although the range of numbers one could've had last week could mean they either did or did not cover the Princeton game.

Cornell Overs are 3-1 (avg total 50.5) with the opponent pulling more weight towards the over than Cornell. Penn Overs are just 1-3 (avg total 47.125), also typically with the opponent contributing more towards those totals generally.

Cornell Avg Ivy Scores
1st H 10.75 2nd H 11.25 Final 22
Opponent
1st H 15 2nd H 17.5 Final 32.5

Penn Avg Ivy Scores
1st H 16.5 2nd H 7 Final 23.5
Opponent
2nd H 19.75 2nd H 8.5 Final 28.25

 

[Rjdbruin]

I will try and get a good ingame number either way and then plug my nose.

 

[s--k]

Dartmouth has scored on their first two possessions of the game which is surprising. Dartmouth D playing well as expected.

One of Princeton's team captains and leaders on O, RB Eaddy was carted off the field. Princeton looks in for a struggle so far.

 

[s--k]

I don't know anything about ingame betting, but a 14pt 1st Q might make for an attractive game under if higher than original

 

[KJ]

Live it's sitting at 48.5 here, guess it closed at 45.5 at Heritage

 

[s--k]

Dartmouth has scored on every possession so far. At somewhere over 170 yards to 18 before this Princeton drive started.

 

[s--k]

My total was 46.5 I'm on the Under, which was partially a play on Dartmouth D and partially a fade of their O - that latter part hasn't gone as planned.

 

[s--k]

Rather surprising output by Dartmouth, they did have a pick-six among their 31 points. 14 points in the 1st Q and 14 pts in the 3rd Q made Under questionable for a bit, but Princeton really struggled all night.

So with Dartmouth's win that gives Princeton their first Ivy loss and it creates life for teams like Columbia and Harvard some realistic hope of getting a share of the Championship this season. Saturday's game between those two will be a Championship elimination game.

Hard for me to consider laying 7 on the road with Harvard. Their O is in a rough patch. They are primarily a running team and have run for just 68 and 47 yards their previous two games! They aren't geared to succeed much through the air, their #1 QB was injured early vs Prinecton, but he doesn't appear to be any better than the guy they primarily play now. Columbia wants to run the ball too, which is exactly what Harvard is built to stop. Game screams Under...38.5 makes it a tough one. Should be a pretty compelling game to watch. I plan to have it on tomorrow.

Penn moved 3 points from this morning to -10 now. Pretty sure I will still have Cornell. I'm assuming these lines are very sensitive. Last week Yale went from 1.5 to 8.5 in the hour or so leading up to KO and there was no major injury news.

No idea on Yale - Brown. I know Brown can accumulate yards and score, but they do a lot wrong as well. Yale is pretty good all around team. Total really high for an Ivy game at 67, but all the Brown totals are the Ivy exception, all Brown totals are high. They've pushed on 66 vs Harvard. Went Under 65.5 last week scoring 62. They've also gone over a 62.5, over 60.5 twice and over 58.5. Their only Under was vs Colgate, under 56, scoring 41 pts, but Colgate didn't contribute only chipping in 10. The last couple Yale games have been high scoring, 67 and 70 pts both went WAY over totals of 35.5 and 38!

 

[bull]

Just looking at some box score data and stuff, last week Dartmouth bounced back off being shut out at home vs Columbia. They beat Harvard 20-17 as 6 pt road dog. Defenses controlled the 1st H. Dartmouth did not convert a single 3rd down, but did convert a 4th down that put them into FG range at the end of the 1st H to lead 10-7 HT. Dartmouth outgained them 175-83 in the 1st H (117 of their yards came on two scoring drives - 81 of Harvard's yards were on their scoring drive!). Harvard returned the 2nd H KO to go up 14-10, but the Harvard O would still struggle. Dartmouth was again able to go on a TD drive without facing or converting a 3rd down to go up 17-14 end of 3rd Q. Dartmouth outgained them 151-13 in the 3rd Q. Harvard missed and made a FG to tie 17-17. Dartmouth went on 4min drive to kick FG :44 left 20-17. Harvard got in position for a 53y FG that was missed. Harvard missed two 4th Q FGs. Dartmouth only converted 1-of-14 3rd downs in the game, but they gained 393 TY (5.6) which is the most yards Harvard's D has allowed this year and only the second time Harvard has allowed an opponent over 300 TY. Dartmouth also outrushed them 117-68 (3.2-2.3). Dartmouth D held them to 223 TY (3.8) which was a new low for the Crimson O. Harvard was held to 234 TY (3.0) the week prior in the OT loss to Princeton. Harvard came in with 29 sacks in 6 games, including 16 the previous two games, but they only sacked Dartmouth 2x. Harvard did lose two turnovers, but neither really hurt their field position nor did they help Dartmouth much (Dartmouth punted back both times with Harvard taking over near where they lost those turnovers the previous drive).

Good analysis of that game, mr. s…k. Harvard offense produced one TD and two F Gs same thing in Princeton game

 

[bull]

Gun to head, I would play Columbia +9 1/2. I was impressed when I watched their win over Dartmouth
Yale -12 . One of the better Ivy 11s against one of the two bottom feeders. Think they will cover the 2 touchdowns.
No on Penn-Cornell. Back b4 y’all were born, this was a traditional season ended played annually on Thanksgiving in Philly.
I endorse UMass over U R I. Scedule of the two teams are miles different Bad as U Mass is, they should not lose this one.

Forgive me please, mr. s…k I didn’t intend to steal your thread when I began to respond.

 

[s--k]

You are welcome and encouraged to post here @bull. Please do.

I am going to take Columbia today. Tons of points to give on the road in a defensive game. I think their D is really good and the Harvard is in a flunk right now.

Appreciate your opinion!

 

[s--k]

Wow Columbia!

So, Columbia D was good before yesterday. Shut out Dartmouth holding them to just 262 yards. They held Princeton to just 300 yards and 45% passing a few weeks back.

But maybe, just maybe Columbia D wasn't quite that good. Last week Yale did rack up 421 yards and 37 points on them (Yale had atleast 1 nonoffensive TD so not sure all 37 are on the D).

Yesterday, in what looked like a defensive battle, turned into a 35-0 Harvard halftime lead! Wow.

So I did play Columbia, don't hate that I did it. +10 at home with what was believed to be a good D vs a struggling Harvard team. Just a surprising result.

I did play Cornell. They went off only +3. Man the Ivy lines move a lot don't they? Can all FCS lines show volitile movement like 3-7 point moves at the snap of a finger? I assume the tracking websites are reporting accurately. So I would've just split Ivy action, but for some reason I took the 2nd H Ov 20 in Cornell-Penn and they only hit 14 so that was a bad play.

Yale at Princeton this week! That will be good. Yale is really playing well. Princeton is wounded animal though. No more Friday games Only two more weeks left...I'm already excited for the first Harvard-Yale game I've ever watched.

 

[bull]

Columbia’s performance was a shock. I don’t have any game details except Harvard played a new Q B. He threw 3 td passes, all in 2Q
nice win on Cornell