Ivy League Final Week

[s--k]

Saturday, November 19, 2022Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Saturday 11/19/2022	Yale	Harvard -1.5 / 52.5	12:00 P.M.	Cambridge, Mass. (Conf.)	TV: ESPNU Video
Saturday 11/19/2022	Penn	Princeton -10.5 / 41.5	1:00 P.M.	Princeton, NJ (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+
Saturday 11/19/2022	Cornell	Columbia -6.5 / 43.5	1:00 P.M.	New York, N.Y. (Conf.)	ESPN+
Saturday 11/19/2022	Brown	Dartmouth -11.5 / 51.5	1:30 P.M.	Hanover, N.H. (Conf.)	TV: ESPN+ Video

Can't think of a better final week in the Ivies really. I read this could be the first ever 4-way tie for the Title! After Harvard blew their game vs Columbia as a DD favorite 2 weeks ago, who would've thought that they would host The Game, the first time Harvard has hosted Yale since 2016 and both teams will have Ivy Title on the line?! Just as Penn at Princeton will have Ivy Title implications! I will offer some recaps of last week and some things to look forward to as Ivy League football concludes this Saturday.

If you have never seen this documentary and love football history and rivalries, this is worth your time.

Harvard Beats Yale 29-29

 

[s--k]

I watched Harvard Beats Yale 29-29 again late last night.

So this is a big week, but first let's just see what happened last week.

Princeton suffered their first loss and a missed extra point kept Unders perfect 9-0 on the year in Princeton games! 1Q was scoreless when both teams moved the ball, but Princeton threw an INT in the EZ and Yale their an INT at the P29 keeping a lid on the scoring. As has been the case for much of the season, Princeton can not run well and they were stuffed on 4th-1 twice near midfield, the first leading to Yale's opening TD in early 2Q and the second time helped Yale break a 14-14 tie with a FG. Yale would then blk a punt and soon it was 24-14 Elis. Princeton made it 24-20. Yale did a good job killing clock in the 4th Q, but Princeton still had two chances. The first Princeton had a FD at the Y27, but Stenstrom was sacked back-to-back (sacks have been a Princeton problem this year also) and they had to go for a 4th-20 that failed. Then with just 1-1/2 minutes left Princeton was driving again. They got as far as the Y15 in the final seconds, but their final pass was incomplete. The missed xpt was critical as it forced them to need a TD rather than a FG to tie. And if you had a 45 total, you were either happy or upset about that missed xpt. Yale ran for an amazing 297y (5.6) while Princeton could only run for 76 (3.3). Both QBs were leading rushers, not suprising for Grooms who had 152, but was surprising for Princeton with Stenstrom's 63. Grooms only completed 9-of-19 passes for 65y, so with the Princeton passing game which is always good, the Tigers finished with a 443-362 TY edge. Princeton was in the RZ twice and got zero pts out of it. Yale RB Pitsenberger was Ivy rookie POW.

The other very meaningful game was Harvard a small underdog at Penn. Harvard was SOD at the P19 on their first possession, but they would then score 4 straight times in the 1H and extended to 5 straight scoring possessions into the 2H. It was 24-7 HT and 31-7 early 3Q. Penn tried coming back. 31-14, then Penn RB Fowler fumbled as he was about to cross the goal line ending much hope of a comeback. Harvard added two FGs for the 37-14 F. Harvard outgained them 458-286 (6.1-5.6) with a 142-9 RY edge (3.8-0.6). Dean was named Ivy O player of the week for his play at QB. TOP was 37-23 for the Crimson. After missing some games, Harvard's top two receivers Wimberly and Hatch did play although they combined for just 2rec-19y.

Cornell upset Dartmouth, which this season shouldn't really be that much of an upset given how far Dartmouth has fallen. Cornell has a winning record currently, has pulled 4 outright upset wins and is 6-3 ATS overall, 6-2 as a dog. Dartmouth on the other hand has fallen to a dismal 2-7 SU, 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Dartmouth had just scored to go up 13-7 3Q, but Cornell ret'd the ensuing KO to lead 14-13. They extended it to 17-13 and Dartmouth had a shot at the end, but their final pass from near the EZ went out of bounds. Cornell had a 38-22 TOP advantage, but Dartmouth did outgain them 281-276 (4.9-4.4). Wang didn't lead Cornell in rushing this game and only passed 13-18-128-0-0. The Big Green surprisingly had Howard attempt 33 passes which he completed 19 for 213 with 1 TD. Howard only rushed 6att for 26y, normally he is the rushing QB.

The last game of the week was an OT match between Columbia and Brown. It was odd that Columbia punted their first 4 possessions with a net of zero yards on those drives. Brown meanwhile threw and INT and fumbled among their first 4. That fumble seemed to spark Columbia as they would connect on a 30y TD pass, a 60y run and a 80y pass to lead 21-0. Brown got an INT and TD off a short field to make it 21-7 HT. Brown cut it to 21-14, Columbia added a FG...24-14. Brown was backed up, but went 12p 96y for TD and it was just 24-21. Columbia was at the B23 with just over 2min left in the game when they tried to seal the game with a 4th down call, which failed giving Brown hope. The Bears hit a 29y FG as time expired in regulation to force OT. Columbia scored a TD in the top of OT1 while Brown ended the game with 3 straight incompletions. Columbia had a slight total yard edge of 414-398 (5.7-4.9). Brown is generally not a strong running team, but they outgained them 229-188 (6.0-4.7) on the ground. Brown threw 4 INTs and was net -3 TOs. Columbia LB Scott Velentas was Ivy D POW.

That brings us up to week #10 now. Here are the current records:

School	Conf	CPct.	Overall	Pct.	Streak
Princeton (4-5 ATS, Unders 9-0)	5-1	.833	8-1	.889	L1
Yale (4-5 ATS, 4-2 ATS in the Ivy)	5-1	.833	7-2	.778	W3
Penn (6-3 ATS)	4-2	.667	7-2	.778	L1
Harvard (2-7 ATS)	4-2	.667	6-3	.667	W1
Columbia (4-5 ATS, but 2-4 in the Ivy)	2-4	.333	5-4	.556	W2
Cornell (6-3 ATS)	2-4	.333	5-4	.556	W1
Brown (4-4-1 ATS)	1-5	.167	3-6	.333	L2
Dartmouth (3-6 ATS, 0-5 as a fav)	1-5	.167	2-7	.222	L3

 

[s--k]

 

[s--k]

A Yale win coupled with Penn defeating Princeton would give Yale sole claim to the Ivy Title! If Princeton beats Penn and Yale wins then Yale and Princeton would officially share the Title although Yale would own a head-to-head tie breaker. Harvard's only hope is to beat Yale and have Penn beat Princeton which would create a 4-way tie. If Princeton beats Penn Harvard can not obtain a share of the Title.

Yale - beat Harvard, Princeton loss = Yale 6-1 Ivy Champs (Princeton and Penn would then be 5-2)
Yale - beat Harvard, Princeton wins = Yale and Princeton Co-Champs at 6-1
Yale - lose to Harvard, Princeton wins = Princeton 6-1 Ivy Champs (Yale and Harvard would then be 5-2)
Yale - lose to Harvard, Princeton loss = Yale 5-2, Harvard 5-2, Princeton 5-2 and Penn 5-2 Co-Champs

Princeton - beat Penn, Yale loss = Princeton 6-1 Ivy Champs (Yale and Harvard would then be 5-2)
Princeton - beat Penn, Yale win = Princeton and Yale Co-Champs at 6-1
Princeton - loss to Penn, Yale win = Yale 6-1 Ivy Champs (Princeton and Penn would then be 5-2)
Princeton - loss to Penn, Yale loss = Princeton 5-2, Yale 5-2, Harvard 5-2 and Penn 5-2 Co-Champs

Harvard - beat Yale, Princeton win = Princeton 6-1 Ivy Champs (Yale and Harvard would be 5-2)
Harvard - beat Yale, Princeton loss = Harvard 5-2, Yale 5-2, Princeton 5-2 and Penn 5-2 Co-Champs
Harvard - loss to Yale, Princeton win = Yale and Princeton Co-Champs at 6-1
Harvard - loss to Yale, Princeton loss = Yale 6-1 Ivy Champs (Princeton and Penn would then be 5-2)

Penn - beat Princeton, Yale win = Yale 6-1 Ivy Champs (Princeton and Penn would then be 5-2)
Penn - beat Princeton, Yale loss = Penn 5-2, Princeton 5-2, Harvard 5-2, Yale 5-2 Co-Champs
Penn - loss to Princeton, Yale win = Yale and Princeton Co-Champs at 6-1
Penn - loss to Princeton, Yale loss = Princeton 6-1 Ivy Champs (Yale and Harvard would then be 5-2)

I think that should be right. Basically, Yale and Princeton control their own destiny to at least share. Harvard and Penn can only share in a 4-way tie and they both have to win...Harvard can't get a share without Penn winning and Penn can't get a share without Harvard winning.

 

[s--k]

Pretty excited for Yale - Harvard. For the first time this year, we are going to see a sold out Ivy League stadium and that place is going to be jacked since they haven't hosted The Game since 2016. Love the Harvard DL matchup vs how Yale has been running the ball. Outside of their DL, I think the Harvard D is overhyped however. Harvard WR Wimberly did return last week after missing the week prior and getting hurt 3 weeks ago with some kind of leg injury, but I read he left after just a few plays. Wimberly caught the game winner in this game last year. Hatch is a decent target for them, but Wimberly is their #1. Hard to get injury information on these teams, but piecing it together, if he plays it sounds like he may not be very effective.

Harvard is off their single most impressive win of the season and Yale just beat Princeton - these two teams are at the top of their games! Princeton did outgain Yale in that game 443-362 and to me, the Yale D remains a question even though they have proved themsevles well in many games (held 5 of 9 opponents below 300y). But vs a good O, like Princeton last week...or vs Penn who had 397, I don't think Yale is any kind of shut down D. To my surprise, Crimson QB Dean had a career best game last week...and that was vs a respectable Penn D without the services of the aforementioned Wimberly most of the game. We know Harvard's game vs Princeton didn't go well for them, their other loss to Columbia by 1 was misleading in that Harvard outgained them 413-258, but Harvard had 3 FGs blk'd.

Waiting to see what the line adjustments do here.

It's tough seeing Penn be such a big underdog. But they've lost 2 of their last 3 and have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 so they are definitely running on empty down the stretch. Nobody stops the Princeton passing O, all anyone can hope for is to get pressure on Stenstrom. Penn is great at getting pressure so that will be their path on D, get in the backfield often. I really do not think that Penn has the type of O, at least consistently to keep up with Princeton. So the Quaker D will have to limit Princeton's scoring, which...Princeton has been held to 20 and 17 pts their last 2 games.

Brown and Dartmouth isn't very interesting, huge line for how bad Dartmouth is, but The Big Green typically win big in this series winning 7 of the last 8. Even as bad as the Dartmouth O has been for most of the year, they are going against Brown D that is giving up 418y and 38 pts vs Ivy competition - those are worst in the league. Dartmouth is scoring just 18ppg and avg just 283ypg vs Ivy...also worst in the league.

Cornell at Columbia should be a good game. If Cornell wins they will finish with a winning record for the first time in 17 years! Jameson Wang has been the reason for their success. Every Cornell game this year but two have been one-score games and the Princeton game was grossly misleading (Cornell outgained them by 150y but lost by 26). Columbia is one of the more disappointing teams this year, but they've won their last two and can also secure a winning record today. I think this game could mean a lot for Columbia as they have a lot of upperclassmen, impactful players who are playing their final game at home and haven't had the season they want, but they can finish it right. Speculation that Ivy legend Al Bagnoli could be coaching his final game. Again, because this year wasn't what anyone hoped, he could try next year to go out on a higher note. Either way, I'd probably side with Columbia in this one, but wouldn't want to lay many pts, just because how pesky Cornell has been this year.

 

[s--k]

Yale wins sole possession of the Ivy League Championship! Their first title since 2019 and their 17th title overall!

It was a pretty good game. Yale led or were tied throughout the game until Harvard took a 14-13 lead in the 4th Q. But Yale immediately responded with a TD to retake the lead and their D did the rest. Yale's D was outstanding.

Yale is outright Ivy Champion because Penn beat Princeton with :05 left on 4th down sending Princeton to 5-2. Penn trailed by 12 at the start of the 4th Q!

Our pick'em champion is oakas!

1	OAKAS	30-21-1	132.0
2	CPA-HOLE	26-24-1	143.0
3	S--K	24-26-1	144.0
4	JCOFFIN714	21-30-1	97.0
5	LAREUX	2-6-0	9.0

 

[oakas]

Thanks for the contest, s--k. I really enjoyed it and bet some of the games and did well. One of my biggest wager of the year was Holy Cross over Harvard.

Thanks again.

 

[CPA-hole]

Thanks for the contest, s--k. I really enjoyed it and bet some of the games and did well. One of my biggest wager of the year was Holy Cross over Harvard.

Thanks again.

Ditto, s--k. And we'll done, Oakas.