It's history lesson time

Lippsman

Lippsman

Tailgater
If you ignore history you will be defeated by it. Or worse yet, your wallet.


Historically the team that wins game one, wins game two at a .590 clip for the preliminary round.

So the Blues look like a good play from a historical standpoint. Laying -117 you would have to win 53.91% of your wagers to break even. With a historical winning percentage of .590 that is more than enough to roll the dice with the Blues tonight.


Now with the Ducks being -137 faves, you would have to win 57.80% of your wagers to break even. So this isn't really worth the risk. You just have to go with who you think will
win the game.

BOL everyone


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Thanks guys, here is a gem everyone will enjoy, but will find hard to believe.

The home team that loses game one in the preliminary round, historically has a 67.5% winning percentage in game two.
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Yes it's actually that high....so.........


Yeah, you want to give the Nucks and Habs a huge look.
 
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Interesting. Here are the exceptions of home teams who've failed to win game 2 after losing game 1, since the new rules came in after the lock-out season...

'12 - Kings(8) vs. Nucks(1) & Flyers(5) vs. Pens(4)
'11 - Habs(6) vs. Bruins(3)
'10 - None (very unusual Round 1: every series was split 1-1 after 2 games: no 2-0 in sight)
'09 - Bruins(8) vs. Habs(1), Pens(4) vs. Flyers(5) & Ducks(8) vs. Sharks(1)
'08 - NYR(5) vs. Devils(4) & Stars (5) vs. Ducks(4)
'07 - NYR(6) vs. Thrashers(3)
'06 - Habs(7) vs. Canes(2) & Avs(7) vs. Stars(2)

5th seed - 4 times
6th seed - 2 times
7th seed - 2 times
8th seed - 3 times

If you think of the Thrashers as playoff frauds (which they were - NYR swept them, easily), the least amount of times it's occurred *legitimately* under the new rules has been with a 6 seed over a 3 seed. Cue Van(3) vs SJ(6).
 
Lippsman said:
If you ignore history you will be defeated by it. Or worse yet, your wallet.


Historically the team that wins game one, wins game two at a .590 clip for the preliminary round.

So the Blues look like a good play from a historical standpoint. Laying -117 you would have to win 53.91% of your wagers to break even. With a historical winning percentage of .590 that is more than enough to roll the dice with the Blues tonight.


Now with the Ducks being -137 faves, you would have to win 57.80% of your wagers to break even. So this isn't really worth the risk. You just have to go with who you think will
win the game.

BOL everyone


an_police.gif
Click to expand...

This applies to the Caps and B's today. Now of course this is general over a great deal of games. But applying the parameters to it, the B's are a huger overlay and the Caps are a slight bargin.

BOL to everyone

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Ok, how about a team that comes home after getting a split on the road.

In this case historical wise, Detroit has a bit under 50% chance to win the game. The home team has a 46.2% winning percentage. So the Ducks are value here getting +130


How about a team going home after losing the first 2 games on the road.


In this spot the home team has a 52.2% in the preliminary round. So the Kings at -145 is a huge overlay. Great value on the Blues here.


But remember everyone, you gotta cap the game first and use this as back up.. But also remember if you ignore history you will be defeated by it.


BOL


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Good info Lipps, thanks. You should jump the fence & stay here full time. Although I must say, the hockey thread over there is generally low key, not much drama as compared to some of the other threads.

In terms of "capping" hockey. I think it's nearly impossible. The other three sports are slower paced & have more designed plays than hockey. To me, picking a winner in hockey is all about watching the teams & getting line values more so than capping. Historical statistical info I do think is always great but there are soooo many variables. No other sports have penalties that create odd-man advantages.

Today's game, for example. I was shit lucky to have picked Washington. A 0-0 game going into OT is obviously a toss-up. Last night's Pens game, no way it shoulda turned out that way. Crosby back, a 2-goal lead & they blow it at home. Who the hell woulda predicted that one? No capping in the world would have shown an edge to NYI, other than the juicy line.

Not disagreeing with anything that anyone has posted, just typing out my thoughts.

GL men!
 
Zeke said:
Good info Lipps, thanks. You should jump the fence & stay here full time. Although I must say, the hockey thread over there is generally low key, not much drama as compared to some of the other threads.

In terms of "capping" hockey. I think it's nearly impossible. The other three sports are slower paced & have more designed plays than hockey. To me, picking a winner in hockey is all about watching the teams & getting line values more so than capping. Historical statistical info I do think is always great but there are soooo many variables. No other sports have penalties that create odd-man advantages.

Today's game, for example. I was shit lucky to have picked Washington. A 0-0 game going into OT is obviously a toss-up. Last night's Pens game, no way it shoulda turned out that way. Crosby back, a 2-goal lead & they blow it at home. Who the hell woulda predicted that one? No capping in the world would have shown an edge to NYI, other than the juicy line.

Not disagreeing with anything that anyone has posted, just typing out my thoughts.

GL men!
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Thanks for the words Zeke. I keep a pretty tight hand over there with Weebs. Also the pucks forum is very good on policing itself. Although during the playoffs we let a little more steam than usual to be let off.

Pucks are very tough and when you use the wagering logic that you use for the more popular sports your bankroll will be 6 feet under in no time. That's why I always preach about the dogs so much. Home ice doesn't mean squat in pucks and dogs cover more than any other sport. Now this season that didn't ring true at all till the last month of the season. But I'm putting that toward the oddball shortened season we had.

Dogs and getting that big juice down by playing regulation and -1 lines are gold.

BOL to you
 
So what does history tell us about game 3's ????

Pitt at Isles and Habs at Sens​


When a team comes home after getting the split on the road they did what they were supposed to do. So does that carry into game 3 at home ? What about that visiting team, they were the fave considering they had home ice advantage.


When a team goes on the road for game 3 (Pens/Habs) after splitting at home, has a 53.8% chance of winning game 3. So the Pens being -174 faves are wayyyy out of whack. Also the Sens are an overlay, but not as bad. Now of course they are the better team, so the Pens should be favored, the Habs and Sens are really a coin flip. So the Habs getting +121 is good value. But you know anything is possible. But history tells us this is a huge overlay.


Hawks at Wild​


How about when a team goes on the road after winning the first two at home. You would think that team down 0-2 will put together a great 3rd game to not go down 0-3. Well you would be correct.


In the preliminary round the road team that is up 2-0 only has a winning percentage of 47.8%. So the Wild getting +146 at home is massive.


Vancouver at Sharks​


How about a team that takes the first two games on the road. Surely they should school the visiting team for a 3-0 lead ?? Right ?? Not at all. The home team coming home after sweeping on the road only has a 34.6% chance of winning game 3 at home.
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Yes that is correct, but I gotta tell you this is based off a very small sample of 26 games. Being that it is just so rare to occur. So the Nucks getting +130 is very good indeed.


So going by history you should take all the dogs today. Wow, that sounds like a strategy after my own heart.
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GL


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OK, let's talk about game 4 shall we.

Ducks at Wings, Blues at Kings


The team (Ducks,Blues) that are up 2-1 on the road in the preliminary round has a winning percentage of 45.7% for game 4.

That bodes well for the Wings who are just a -125 fave, the Kings not so much, it's almost a wash. Now if you go by all rounds the road winning percentage in game 4 is 48.2%. So either way the Wings would be a good play going by historical percentages.

Remember, cap the game first !!!!
 
Lippsman said:
OK, let's talk about game 4 shall we.

Ducks at Wings, Blues at Kings


The team (Ducks,Blues) that are up 2-1 on the road in the preliminary round has a winning percentage of 45.7% for game 4.

That bodes well for the Wings who are just a -125 fave, the Kings not so much, it's almost a wash. Now if you go by all rounds the road winning percentage in game 4 is 48.2%. So either way the Wings would be a good play going by historical percentages.

Remember, cap the game first !!!!
Click to expand...

This applies to the Pens and Hawks tonight.
 
Habs at Sens​


How about a team that took away home ice advantage and is up 2-1 (Sens) ? How do they do in the 4th game of the series in the Preliminary round: 32-33 (.492) So getting any plus value with the Habs is a good wager from a historical standpoint. So while not great at +117, it's still probably enough to give it a shot.

Nucks at Sharks​


Oh it's possible sweep time, so how exactly does a team get swept in the Preliminary round ? And how often does the team with home ice advantage get swept ? I would say not very often at all.


[FONT=non-serif, verdana, helvetica]Well that would be waaaaaay wrong. The team leading 3-0 sweeps 66% of the time in the Preliminary round. If you go by all rounds they sweep at 62.5% of the time. Now a team just doesn't get in this situation very often at all though. The Preliminary is based on just 9 games and all rounds just 40 games. [/FONT]
[FONT=non-serif, verdana, helvetica]
[/FONT]
[FONT=non-serif, verdana, helvetica]But considering that the Sharks are -149 faves they are still a good wager. Laying -149 you would have to win 59.8% of your wagers to break even. But of course you know I can't recommend juice like that. [/FONT]
 
L.A at St. Louis, Detroit at Ducks and Isles at Pens. ​

What happens when a series goes back to the team with the better seed for game 5, being tied 2-2. You would think where they won a road game the tide has turned back and they have a huge advantage. Well one would think that wouldn't they.


Ignoring win order, considering site order. HHVV, the home team,(St.Louis, Detroit, Pens) historically have a Preliminary round winning percentage of 60.2% for game 5.
How about winning the series tied 2-2. Using the same situation the home team wins the series at a 61.4% rate and overall it's a tad lower at 60.8% for all rounds.


So tonight the Ducks and Blues are great values at just laying -125 and -135. The Pens are huge overlays at -209.
 
Game 4 history lesson.

B's at Leafs and Caps at Rangers​


How about a road team that has a 2-1 lead going into game 4 (B's, Caps) HHV, The road team has a game 4 record of 42-50. Yes you read that correctly. The team that grabbed home ice advantage back gives it away over half the time in game 4. In the preliminary round it stands at a 45.7% win rate. So the Leafs are a very good pick tonight at getting +122. The Rangers are a -130 fave so that's a tad high, but in the ball park.

Remember to cap those game first and use this as backup.


 
If anyone is still interested.


Pens huge overlay for tonight from historical records.

How about when a team that is a higher seed comes back home after being up 3-1.


Minny at Chicago​


Ignoring win order the team coming home after being up 3-1 (Chicago) has a game 5 winning percentage of 57.1. All rounds are 65.2%. So pretty high, but nowhere close to the -250 they are laying tonight. So bigtime overlay here, but the Hawks are the better team, but not -250 better.


In the regular season game against Minny at home, the Hawks were just -172 faves. So you can see major juicing here.


How about when the team that is higher seed is coming home down 3-1.


Sens at Habs​


Ignoring win order, when the lower seed is on the road for game 5, looking to close out the series they have agame 5 winning percentage 28.6.
an_speechless.gif
. Yes you read that correctly, just a paltry 28.6% win rate in the preliminary round. Now if you go by all rounds that jumps to 44.1%. So still very low. The Habs are a very good play at -123


Remember don't be defeated by history


GL


an_cheers.gif
 
Good stuff Lipps. wrt to Minny, note that Backstrom is "rumored" to be starting tonight but the Wild might as well pull someone out of the stands to back him up because that's exactly what they have. Also Mikko Koivu is playing hurt - easy to tell that he's been non-existent this series. He's not a typical #1 line player but he's a really good glue guy when he's healthy (but he clearly isn't). Blackhawks put on an absolute clinic on defense last game against a wild team that has been struggling for over a month. IMO, the line is where it's at because of those factors - so judging it relative to the regular season line is almost apples vs. oranges.

Great stats on the Sens/Habs too.
 
I'd be curious to see if there's any correlation to potential close-out games to overs. For instance, a team who is down 3-1 in the series would be expected to pull out all the stops, including pulling the goalie very early if need be & keeping him out. With that in mind I would lean strong to the overs in Chi & Mtl. Problem with Chi game is that I could see them posting another shutout.
 
Harding in net for Wild tonight per local papers. The word around here was there was no way he was going to play.
 
Zeke said:
I'd be curious to see if there's any correlation to potential close-out games to overs. For instance, a team who is down 3-1 in the series would be expected to pull out all the stops, including pulling the goalie very early if need be & keeping him out. With that in mind I would lean strong to the overs in Chi & Mtl. Problem with Chi game is that I could see them posting another shutout.
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Oh no doubt I would edge to the overs in these games.
 
History is on the losing side of things tonight. Those huge faves came through, well the 2nd game should come through. Just looking for one more goal in the Hawks game so I can get the split.
 
So what does history tell us about the higher seeds going for the series win in game 6 on the road.

Capitals at Rangers....Bruins at Leafs. Game 6​


The team leading 3-games-2 with site order HHVVH (Washington, Boston) has a preliminary round winning percentage of 58.1% and all rounds winning percentage of 53.7. So the Caps are a very good wager, getting +123. The B's are a -132 fave so that is pretty much a wash.

Wings at Ducks ​

How about a team going for a series win at home in game 7. You would think it's pretty high, wouldn't you ??

Well......it's a winning wager, but not as much as you may think. Considering site order and ignoring win orderthe team going for the game 7 win has a 58.2% of winning the game. If you go by all rounds it edges up to 59.7%.

Lo and behold the oddsmakers have made the Ducks a -141 fave which means you have to win 58.5% of your wagers to break even.


How 'bout that.
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Lippsman said:
Wings at Ducks ​

How about a team going for a series win at home in game 7. You would think it's pretty high, wouldn't you ??

Well......it's a winning wager, but not as much as you may think. Considering site order and ignoring win orderthe team going for the game 7 win has a 58.2% of winning the game. If you go by all rounds it edges up to 59.7%.

Lo and behold the oddsmakers have made the Ducks a -141 fave which means you have to win 58.5% of your wagers to break even.


How 'bout that.
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Click to expand...

Thanks Hunt !!!!

Tonight the B's and Caps games apply to this. Remember that -141 is the break even point. So keep that in mind when the lines are released about 11 AM ET
 
I would think the Bruins will be in the -160-170 range, maybe higher since they were faves over -125 in every game at Toronto. Should be interesting to see.
 
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