It's a Long F*ckin' Offseason: News Articles and Notes
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RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Contenders: West Virginia
by SMQ on May 14, 2008 9:13 AM EDT
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
Voters aren’t wild about West Virginia, necessarily, but you won’t find any other Big East teams anywhere near the Mountaineers in the earliest preseason polls . The instinct to write WVU off post-Rodriguez is obvious, but give me a unanimous conference favorite with three straight top ten finishes and a serious candidate for the Trophy Which Shall Not Be Named, and I’ll give you a legitimate mythical championship aspirant. Darkhorse, at worst.
Bow Down. There’s really only one reason to consider the Mountaineers a mythical championship contender, and it’s the same reason they’ve carried that status into the last two seasons:
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<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3_73bsdVi_c&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="295" width="345"></object>
Only moreso since the Fiesta Bowl, where Pat White officially emerged from the shadow of Rich Rodriguez, puppetmaster, and Steve Slaton, partner in crime. By dominating an elite defense without the spread option mastermind or co-focal point in the backfield, White probably surpassed Tim Tebow as the most valuable player to his team every time he steps on the field – as long he’s actually on the field: the losses to South Florida (where backup Jarrett Brown committed four turnovers in the second half) and Pitt are largely attributable to White spending crucial possessions on the bench. Fully healthy against OU, White was a well-rounded terror, as he’s been most of the time in leading the offense to a fairly outrageous 38 points per game each of the last two years. When he’s in the lineup, with Noel Devine assuming the Slaton role, there is no reason to think defenses will suddenly figure out how to defend him.
The Mountaineers also have an asset they’ve lacked the last two years: nonconference juice. They open at home against Auburn, a prove-it game that can instantly vault WVU into the championship picture, and play at Colorado two weeks later.
Bust Out. The last three years were by far the most successful in school history – only once before, in 1953-54, had WVU even finished anywhere in the final AP poll two years in a row; from 2005-07, it finished in the top ten all three years and won three January bowl games, two of them significant BCS upsets. That run is so far outside of the historical pattern, the loss of two legs from the tripod that supported it – Rodriguez and Steve Slaton – seems like a death sentence for national ambitions.
What’s left, outside of White and Devine, doesn’t fit any pattern of elite success. West Virginia had four outgoing players who were voted all-Big East but weren’t even drafted – they were, in other words, overachievers, whose success can’t be taken outside the context of Rodriguez’s guidance. National championships over the last decade – and probably longer, if anyone kept up as closely with recruiting before the age of obsession facilitated by the Internet – are exclusively the province of powerhouses that annually draw top five and top ten talent out of high school. Only once under Rodriguez did WVU even slip into the top 25 according to the gurus. Bash the gurus if you’d like (you’re wrong , but go ahead); the talent level here is nowhere near mythical championship quality across the board, especially on the offensive line and on defense. There’s no recent precedent for overcoming such a gap to win a crystal ball, nor any of its less translucent forerunners.
Where a win over Auburn hypothetically boosts confidence and stock among voters, a loss just as likely does the exact opposite: an early disappointment could undermine Stewart, a much-criticized hire already, and led to the sort of meltdown Louisville endured last year in its own messy transition from a program-defining boss. Barring the hysterics of the most recent championship race, even one loss (especially if it’s to Auburn) is still like a plague to a team from the Big East.
Just enjoy the ride, man.
- - -
Bobbling the Handoff. I’ve personally compared Bill Stewart to Larry Coker as a grandfatherly caretaker withiffy credentials who seems to lack the ruthless edge of a big chief, but that’s only pessimistic in the long term – it also has to acknowledge that Coker, too, inherited a bounty from his predecessor in terms of talent and trajectory, and Coker’s first Miami team in 2001 was one of the unquestioned juggernauts of the decade. This team has unique talents in White and Devine and, riding the momentum of the stunning Fiesta Bowl romp, might still have a sense of unfinished business; when Rich Rodriguez turned down Alabama in 2006, it seemed to me the reason was more about the once-in-a-career opportunity for a championship with the perfect pieces for his system, White and Slaton, in place for two more years than it was about the money or power within the program. The squad in January looked like one that still harbored those ambitions, and the addition of quality non-conference games will cut off Big East skeptics (I assume this breed still exists) if it comes down to strength of schedule debates.
Personnel-wise, though, this team is certainly not on the level of those Hurricanes, who were essentially an NFL farm club that only the most incompetent transition team could have screwed up. West Virginia is a one-and-half-man show that can rarely rely on a talent advantage to overcome sloppiness, adversity or good gameplanning by the opposition. It has to make the right decision and execute precisely every time, which, as the losses to South Florida and Pittsburgh the last two years show, is unrealistic. As is, apparently, Pat White holding up to a beating over a full season.
The sense of inevitable explosiveness will be replaced, at least initially, with the anxiety that always accompanies dramatic change. There are much dumber gambles at No. 1, but emotions aside, with the loss of its brain trust and the stiffening of the schedule outside of the Big East, the Mountaineers’ window to national greatness seems to have closed.
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
Voters aren’t wild about West Virginia, necessarily, but you won’t find any other Big East teams anywhere near the Mountaineers in the earliest preseason polls . The instinct to write WVU off post-Rodriguez is obvious, but give me a unanimous conference favorite with three straight top ten finishes and a serious candidate for the Trophy Which Shall Not Be Named, and I’ll give you a legitimate mythical championship aspirant. Darkhorse, at worst.
Bow Down. There’s really only one reason to consider the Mountaineers a mythical championship contender, and it’s the same reason they’ve carried that status into the last two seasons:
<object height="295" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3_73bsdVi_c&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="295" width="345"></object>
Only moreso since the Fiesta Bowl, where Pat White officially emerged from the shadow of Rich Rodriguez, puppetmaster, and Steve Slaton, partner in crime. By dominating an elite defense without the spread option mastermind or co-focal point in the backfield, White probably surpassed Tim Tebow as the most valuable player to his team every time he steps on the field – as long he’s actually on the field: the losses to South Florida (where backup Jarrett Brown committed four turnovers in the second half) and Pitt are largely attributable to White spending crucial possessions on the bench. Fully healthy against OU, White was a well-rounded terror, as he’s been most of the time in leading the offense to a fairly outrageous 38 points per game each of the last two years. When he’s in the lineup, with Noel Devine assuming the Slaton role, there is no reason to think defenses will suddenly figure out how to defend him.
The Mountaineers also have an asset they’ve lacked the last two years: nonconference juice. They open at home against Auburn, a prove-it game that can instantly vault WVU into the championship picture, and play at Colorado two weeks later.
Bust Out. The last three years were by far the most successful in school history – only once before, in 1953-54, had WVU even finished anywhere in the final AP poll two years in a row; from 2005-07, it finished in the top ten all three years and won three January bowl games, two of them significant BCS upsets. That run is so far outside of the historical pattern, the loss of two legs from the tripod that supported it – Rodriguez and Steve Slaton – seems like a death sentence for national ambitions.
What’s left, outside of White and Devine, doesn’t fit any pattern of elite success. West Virginia had four outgoing players who were voted all-Big East but weren’t even drafted – they were, in other words, overachievers, whose success can’t be taken outside the context of Rodriguez’s guidance. National championships over the last decade – and probably longer, if anyone kept up as closely with recruiting before the age of obsession facilitated by the Internet – are exclusively the province of powerhouses that annually draw top five and top ten talent out of high school. Only once under Rodriguez did WVU even slip into the top 25 according to the gurus. Bash the gurus if you’d like (you’re wrong , but go ahead); the talent level here is nowhere near mythical championship quality across the board, especially on the offensive line and on defense. There’s no recent precedent for overcoming such a gap to win a crystal ball, nor any of its less translucent forerunners.
Where a win over Auburn hypothetically boosts confidence and stock among voters, a loss just as likely does the exact opposite: an early disappointment could undermine Stewart, a much-criticized hire already, and led to the sort of meltdown Louisville endured last year in its own messy transition from a program-defining boss. Barring the hysterics of the most recent championship race, even one loss (especially if it’s to Auburn) is still like a plague to a team from the Big East.
Just enjoy the ride, man.
- - -
Bobbling the Handoff. I’ve personally compared Bill Stewart to Larry Coker as a grandfatherly caretaker withiffy credentials who seems to lack the ruthless edge of a big chief, but that’s only pessimistic in the long term – it also has to acknowledge that Coker, too, inherited a bounty from his predecessor in terms of talent and trajectory, and Coker’s first Miami team in 2001 was one of the unquestioned juggernauts of the decade. This team has unique talents in White and Devine and, riding the momentum of the stunning Fiesta Bowl romp, might still have a sense of unfinished business; when Rich Rodriguez turned down Alabama in 2006, it seemed to me the reason was more about the once-in-a-career opportunity for a championship with the perfect pieces for his system, White and Slaton, in place for two more years than it was about the money or power within the program. The squad in January looked like one that still harbored those ambitions, and the addition of quality non-conference games will cut off Big East skeptics (I assume this breed still exists) if it comes down to strength of schedule debates.
Personnel-wise, though, this team is certainly not on the level of those Hurricanes, who were essentially an NFL farm club that only the most incompetent transition team could have screwed up. West Virginia is a one-and-half-man show that can rarely rely on a talent advantage to overcome sloppiness, adversity or good gameplanning by the opposition. It has to make the right decision and execute precisely every time, which, as the losses to South Florida and Pittsburgh the last two years show, is unrealistic. As is, apparently, Pat White holding up to a beating over a full season.
The sense of inevitable explosiveness will be replaced, at least initially, with the anxiety that always accompanies dramatic change. There are much dumber gambles at No. 1, but emotions aside, with the loss of its brain trust and the stiffening of the schedule outside of the Big East, the Mountaineers’ window to national greatness seems to have closed.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Contenders: Georgia
by SMQ on May 12, 2008 4:33 PM EDT
Making the case for number one.
- - -
I’m sure Georgia boards have made the point ad nauseum since last October, but for those who thought it was a prime example of a classless act, the most classless act in the history of college football, the most classless act you’ve ever seen, or just absolutely bush league, for the record, after Mark Richt instructed his team to do this:
<object float:left="" height="275" width="335">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Oe4IsRwLVjI&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" float:left;="" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Oe4IsRwLVjI&hl=en" height="275" width="335"></object> </p> ...Georgia’s poll position did this:
The win over Florida was on Oct. 27; the big upshot at the end– including the Cocktail win, a 25-point win over Auburn, double-digit margins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech and the very un-subtle bludgeoning of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl – begins Oct. 28. Prior to that, if you ignore the "spike" facilitated by the 2007 offseason, the Bulldogs hadn’t been on an upward trend at any point more than three weeks in a row before they started down again. But then they got theyselves motivated, or something, and they’re the hottest stock of the early summer prognostiscenti: in the early polls, UGA is number one by the Worldwide Leader, The Sporting News, and (watch out) Sports Illustrated; Sportsline.com and College Football News have them second. I expected opinions to be more mixed, but the early returns say if there’s a preseason frontrunner, Georgia is it.
Bow Down. One of the clichés of being as young and gifted as UGA was in 2007 is the "wait until next year" treatment, which only sounds like poor consolation until next year actually arrives. Then, the quarterback, secondary and offensive line were green (or "untenably young in a lot of areas") and scared voters away. Now, they’re stacked. There’s not even room here for sleepers and overachievers. The stars on the defense are still more prospective than fulfilled, with the possible exception of scout favorite Jeff Owens in the middle of the line, but it’s very possible the defense will field a lineup made up entirely of guys rated in the top dozen at their position out of high school. This is exceptional recruiting, retention and development: at worst, there won’t be a regular on the defense who was ranked outside of his position class’ top 25 by Rivals, and even the feted units at USC and LSU can’t say that across the board. All the noobs in the secondary are now upperclassmen who ended last year by holding André Woodson and Colt Brennan to their worst games of the season.
No, Matt: We’re talking about number one.
- - -
The offense is not as monolithically talented, but it is equally loaded in the right spots. The late season turnaround coincided with the commitment to Knowshon Moreno as the focal point of the offense, which was so dramatic that Kyle King thinks Moreno can be the special player of his generation who enshrines Richt in the pantheon. And that’s only if he doesn’t lose carries to Caleb King. Matt Stafford progressed as expected, less spectacularly but by every measure: his passer rating improved 20 points over his freshman effort, and if this year’s gains are only half that dramatic, he can probably take his bomb-throwing, keg-wielding arm to the NFL a year early. Again, though, because it’s Moreno’s show, Stafford just has to be good enough in the occasional crunch, not the all-American his recruiting hype predicted. That’s not really in question.
Bust Out. Essentially, the bet is that the transition to "next year" occurred during the bye week before the Florida game, and the team that rolled from that point is the team. That ignores the inconsistency that defined the team over the preceding year-and-a-half, during which time the Bulldogs were a very pedestrian 7-6 in the SEC and had to survive regular squeakers (six wins in 06-07 by five points or less) to get there. UGA was a fringe poll team that rocketed upward in a little less than half a season. The only reason to think that brilliant half will override the sketchy half in the future is Moreno, and if just a couple stout defenses commit to bottling him up – almost guaranteed to happen at some point, with Arizona State, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, LSU and Auburn in a brutal eight-game span – there’s still at least a member or two of the jury out on Stafford, if for no other reason than the unreliability of his receivers. Without some pop from the passing game, a team can only win so many tightly-wrought defensive slugfests.
In the Immortal Words of Meatloaf... The absence of a steady receiver – a big play guy or a reliable possession type – is the only quibble with the personnel; the depth chart is definitely mythical championship quality. Georgia’s problem is every SEC team’s problem: there’s not one giant hurdle amid more routine obstacles, but about four of them, especially in a year when the rotating draw from the West division is Alabama and LSU instead of Mississippi State, Ole Miss or momentarily de-fanged Arkansas. Knowshon Moreno is a pretty good reason for guessing Late ‘07 Georgia is the best predictive model for ‘08 Georgia all the way, but anyone who likes UGA at the top either thinks the schedule is somehow manageable for an undefeated season or that surviving Florida, at LSU and at Auburn with just one loss will be good enough with some help. Neither is necessarily likely, but if you’re playing the odds, the twists of championship Saturday the last couple years reinforce the latter. The first decade of the BCS has taught us that two undefeated teams is always a bad bet – it's only happened three times. So where the USC-Ohio State winner or the Big 12 champion might be more likely to run the table, if they don't, they almost certainly won't be able to hang with Georgia's strength of schedule when voters put them on the scales. So maybe two outta three ain't bad.
Making the case for number one.
- - -
I’m sure Georgia boards have made the point ad nauseum since last October, but for those who thought it was a prime example of a classless act, the most classless act in the history of college football, the most classless act you’ve ever seen, or just absolutely bush league, for the record, after Mark Richt instructed his team to do this:
<object float:left="" height="275" width="335">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Oe4IsRwLVjI&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" float:left;="" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Oe4IsRwLVjI&hl=en" height="275" width="335"></object> </p> ...Georgia’s poll position did this:
Bow Down. One of the clichés of being as young and gifted as UGA was in 2007 is the "wait until next year" treatment, which only sounds like poor consolation until next year actually arrives. Then, the quarterback, secondary and offensive line were green (or "untenably young in a lot of areas") and scared voters away. Now, they’re stacked. There’s not even room here for sleepers and overachievers. The stars on the defense are still more prospective than fulfilled, with the possible exception of scout favorite Jeff Owens in the middle of the line, but it’s very possible the defense will field a lineup made up entirely of guys rated in the top dozen at their position out of high school. This is exceptional recruiting, retention and development: at worst, there won’t be a regular on the defense who was ranked outside of his position class’ top 25 by Rivals, and even the feted units at USC and LSU can’t say that across the board. All the noobs in the secondary are now upperclassmen who ended last year by holding André Woodson and Colt Brennan to their worst games of the season.
No, Matt: We’re talking about number one.
- - -
The offense is not as monolithically talented, but it is equally loaded in the right spots. The late season turnaround coincided with the commitment to Knowshon Moreno as the focal point of the offense, which was so dramatic that Kyle King thinks Moreno can be the special player of his generation who enshrines Richt in the pantheon. And that’s only if he doesn’t lose carries to Caleb King. Matt Stafford progressed as expected, less spectacularly but by every measure: his passer rating improved 20 points over his freshman effort, and if this year’s gains are only half that dramatic, he can probably take his bomb-throwing, keg-wielding arm to the NFL a year early. Again, though, because it’s Moreno’s show, Stafford just has to be good enough in the occasional crunch, not the all-American his recruiting hype predicted. That’s not really in question.
Bust Out. Essentially, the bet is that the transition to "next year" occurred during the bye week before the Florida game, and the team that rolled from that point is the team. That ignores the inconsistency that defined the team over the preceding year-and-a-half, during which time the Bulldogs were a very pedestrian 7-6 in the SEC and had to survive regular squeakers (six wins in 06-07 by five points or less) to get there. UGA was a fringe poll team that rocketed upward in a little less than half a season. The only reason to think that brilliant half will override the sketchy half in the future is Moreno, and if just a couple stout defenses commit to bottling him up – almost guaranteed to happen at some point, with Arizona State, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, LSU and Auburn in a brutal eight-game span – there’s still at least a member or two of the jury out on Stafford, if for no other reason than the unreliability of his receivers. Without some pop from the passing game, a team can only win so many tightly-wrought defensive slugfests.
In the Immortal Words of Meatloaf... The absence of a steady receiver – a big play guy or a reliable possession type – is the only quibble with the personnel; the depth chart is definitely mythical championship quality. Georgia’s problem is every SEC team’s problem: there’s not one giant hurdle amid more routine obstacles, but about four of them, especially in a year when the rotating draw from the West division is Alabama and LSU instead of Mississippi State, Ole Miss or momentarily de-fanged Arkansas. Knowshon Moreno is a pretty good reason for guessing Late ‘07 Georgia is the best predictive model for ‘08 Georgia all the way, but anyone who likes UGA at the top either thinks the schedule is somehow manageable for an undefeated season or that surviving Florida, at LSU and at Auburn with just one loss will be good enough with some help. Neither is necessarily likely, but if you’re playing the odds, the twists of championship Saturday the last couple years reinforce the latter. The first decade of the BCS has taught us that two undefeated teams is always a bad bet – it's only happened three times. So where the USC-Ohio State winner or the Big 12 champion might be more likely to run the table, if they don't, they almost certainly won't be able to hang with Georgia's strength of schedule when voters put them on the scales. So maybe two outta three ain't bad.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Nouveau Riche: Missouri
by SMQ on May 5, 2008 3:41 PM EDT in News
The Norm. To say Missouri was in a rut during Gary Pinkel's first six seasons would be an understatement. In fact, it goes back quite a bit farther than that: Missouri's last conference title was in 1969, in the Big Eight, a conference subsequently dominated by Nebraska, Oklahoma and Colorado as the Tigers remained in mystifying mediocrity. Take the trend pre-2007 and extend it back 35 years:
As for Pinkel, his team's annual Big 12 marks heading into last season were 3-5, 2-6, 4-4, 3-5, 4-4 and 4-4 beginning in 2001. There was some hint Mizzou was good enough to compete for the title in a watered-down North division; there was none at all it would run roughshod over every team it faced in the conference that wasn't Oklahoma.
Get Used To It. The Tigers outgunned seven non-OU opponents in-conference by 15 points and 110 yards per game and set new school records for wins, conference wins, passing yards, total yards, scoring and final poll finish (fourth by the AP after a Cotton Bowl blowout of Arkansas). They beat Nebraska by 35, Texas Tech by 31, Colorado by 45, Arkansas by 31, Texas A&M by 17 and Kansas State by fourteen. They bookended the regular season with wins over two teams that ended in the BCS (Illinois and Kansas). By margin and degree of difficulty, Missouri was as much a non-flukey powerhouse as anybody.
If Chase Daniel was truly a one-man show, it might make some sense to question the offense's sustainability, like a one-shot supernova. But back alongside Daniel is Jeremy Maclin, who set a new I-A record for freshmen with almost 2,800 yards rushing, receiving and returning, and three other receivers (Danario Alexander, Tommy Saunders and tight end Chase Coffman) who combined for 130 catches. Other than Maclin, who can properly fly, these are not extraordinary talents. Daniel is an accurate, first-rate decision maker, and as long as he's well-protected - and Pinkell's system continues to make defenses pay for their aggressiveness with a lot of screens, misdirection and a deceptive, trap-heavy running game - the offense might as well be on high-scoring autopilot.
Enjoy It While It Lasts. The balance of power depends on the sustainability of Kansas' rise - which is shaky - and the durability of Nebraska's sense of entitlement, at least where recruits are concerned; in that regard, the stockpiling of talent, the Huskers reasserted themselves under Bill Callahan after some really mediocre efforts on the trail by Frank Solich's staff. Missouri's recruiting has been a little better the last two years, but still just so-so - Pinkell hasn't brought in a class ranked higher than fifth in the Big 12 according to Rivals, which is roughly how his teams have usually fared. Missouri hasn't won in Lincoln since 1978, and its time at the top may only last as long as it takes Bo Pellini to slam the door.
Never leave me!
- - -
Approximate Staying Power. As long as Daniel is quarterback, with a threat like Maclin around, the offense will purr. So at least one more year of the good life, generally. What separates Missouri at this moment from, say, Texas Tech, is that it might also field its best defense of the Pinkel era. Personnel-wise, the Tigers are set in the front seven, where four all-conference candidates are among six returning starters, and at safety, where William Moore projects on more than a few summer all-America teams if he returns from a spring injury at full speed. In the losses to Oklahoma, Mizzou gave up 41 points the first time and 38 in the Big 12 Championship. In the other eleven games, it was the stingiest in the league. If scoring is steady - it should be, based on personnel - those numbers only need to come down a little to make the Tigers legit mythical championship contenders. It could have been them, after all, rather than LSU, playing Ohio State if not for the flop against OU in St. Louis. Beyond this fall, though, probably not much, not on elite level. Missouri's had good, productive quarterbacks before - Brad Smith, Corby Jones - and been thoroughly mediocre, anyway, because they had to handle everything themselves (Brock Olivo could squat the statehouse, but he was just an OK running back). The current supporting cast seems like an elite group because it has an elite quarterback who can get everyone involved. When Daniel is gone, there's no reason to expect any sustained fireworks on the order of last year's (and this year's, most likely). If the conference title drought doesn't meet its demise with the current group, there's no end in sight.
The Norm. To say Missouri was in a rut during Gary Pinkel's first six seasons would be an understatement. In fact, it goes back quite a bit farther than that: Missouri's last conference title was in 1969, in the Big Eight, a conference subsequently dominated by Nebraska, Oklahoma and Colorado as the Tigers remained in mystifying mediocrity. Take the trend pre-2007 and extend it back 35 years:
As for Pinkel, his team's annual Big 12 marks heading into last season were 3-5, 2-6, 4-4, 3-5, 4-4 and 4-4 beginning in 2001. There was some hint Mizzou was good enough to compete for the title in a watered-down North division; there was none at all it would run roughshod over every team it faced in the conference that wasn't Oklahoma.
Get Used To It. The Tigers outgunned seven non-OU opponents in-conference by 15 points and 110 yards per game and set new school records for wins, conference wins, passing yards, total yards, scoring and final poll finish (fourth by the AP after a Cotton Bowl blowout of Arkansas). They beat Nebraska by 35, Texas Tech by 31, Colorado by 45, Arkansas by 31, Texas A&M by 17 and Kansas State by fourteen. They bookended the regular season with wins over two teams that ended in the BCS (Illinois and Kansas). By margin and degree of difficulty, Missouri was as much a non-flukey powerhouse as anybody.
If Chase Daniel was truly a one-man show, it might make some sense to question the offense's sustainability, like a one-shot supernova. But back alongside Daniel is Jeremy Maclin, who set a new I-A record for freshmen with almost 2,800 yards rushing, receiving and returning, and three other receivers (Danario Alexander, Tommy Saunders and tight end Chase Coffman) who combined for 130 catches. Other than Maclin, who can properly fly, these are not extraordinary talents. Daniel is an accurate, first-rate decision maker, and as long as he's well-protected - and Pinkell's system continues to make defenses pay for their aggressiveness with a lot of screens, misdirection and a deceptive, trap-heavy running game - the offense might as well be on high-scoring autopilot.
Enjoy It While It Lasts. The balance of power depends on the sustainability of Kansas' rise - which is shaky - and the durability of Nebraska's sense of entitlement, at least where recruits are concerned; in that regard, the stockpiling of talent, the Huskers reasserted themselves under Bill Callahan after some really mediocre efforts on the trail by Frank Solich's staff. Missouri's recruiting has been a little better the last two years, but still just so-so - Pinkell hasn't brought in a class ranked higher than fifth in the Big 12 according to Rivals, which is roughly how his teams have usually fared. Missouri hasn't won in Lincoln since 1978, and its time at the top may only last as long as it takes Bo Pellini to slam the door.
Never leave me!
- - -
Approximate Staying Power. As long as Daniel is quarterback, with a threat like Maclin around, the offense will purr. So at least one more year of the good life, generally. What separates Missouri at this moment from, say, Texas Tech, is that it might also field its best defense of the Pinkel era. Personnel-wise, the Tigers are set in the front seven, where four all-conference candidates are among six returning starters, and at safety, where William Moore projects on more than a few summer all-America teams if he returns from a spring injury at full speed. In the losses to Oklahoma, Mizzou gave up 41 points the first time and 38 in the Big 12 Championship. In the other eleven games, it was the stingiest in the league. If scoring is steady - it should be, based on personnel - those numbers only need to come down a little to make the Tigers legit mythical championship contenders. It could have been them, after all, rather than LSU, playing Ohio State if not for the flop against OU in St. Louis. Beyond this fall, though, probably not much, not on elite level. Missouri's had good, productive quarterbacks before - Brad Smith, Corby Jones - and been thoroughly mediocre, anyway, because they had to handle everything themselves (Brock Olivo could squat the statehouse, but he was just an OK running back). The current supporting cast seems like an elite group because it has an elite quarterback who can get everyone involved. When Daniel is gone, there's no reason to expect any sustained fireworks on the order of last year's (and this year's, most likely). If the conference title drought doesn't meet its demise with the current group, there's no end in sight.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Iowa State
by SMQ on Apr 23, 2008 8:40 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Iowa State... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="185"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 3-9 (2-6 Big 12, 6th North)
2003-07: 23-37 (11-29 Big 12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2003-07: 42 • 58 • 63 • 60 • 62</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>14 (7 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
One of the reasons so many teams in the Big 12 were offensive juggernauts: no pass rush. ISU’s Kurt Taylor, coming off an injury that blew up his entire sophomore season in 2006, finished second in the conference with just 6.5 sacks from defensive tackle. This is not so overwhelming, but of the two players ISU is pimping for all-conference honors this season (along with receiver R.J. Sumrall), at least Taylor’s numbers were good enough to earn a rank.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>The More You Know</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
Iowa State is home to the first electronic digital computing device, i.e., calculator, the Atanasoff-Berry Computer, capable of solving up to 29 simultaneous linear equations before it was abandoned for more serious, war-related projects – like the atomic bomb – in 1942. For the nerds (who would already know this if they were real nerds), it was the first machine to use binary digits to represent all numbers and data, to use electronics rather than wheels, ratchets or mechanical switches, and to separate computation and memory. Actually, these days, ISU is only home to a replica, which looks something like a typewriter. A 700-pound typewriter, build in a grad student’s basement.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
Iowa State's season went through three distinct cycles last year, Gene Chizik's first as boss: September: Disaster. ISU lost its first two games to MAC also-ran Kent State and I-AA Northern Iowa, both by two scores, and then to another MAC also-ran, Toledo. If not for an inexplicable upset of Iowa in between, it would have been the worst opening month in the country, all things considered. October: A winless month, but one of undeniable progress by fire against a brutal series of ranked teams. Compare the losses to Texas Tech (by 25 points) and Texas (by 53 points) to the losses to Oklahoma (by ten points, with the game still in doubt well into the fourth quarter) and to Missouri (in which ISU outgained the Tigers while holding them to a regular season low in total offense), and you get a picture of a team clearly moving forward.
November: Breakthrough. Out of kiln of the league's heavy hitters, ISU won two straight over Kansas State and Colorado, both of which came in above .500 with major upsets on their record (Texas in Kansas State's case, Oklahoma for Colorado).
Does that mean anything for 2008? It might look that way, if not for the ending: the validation of the upward arc would have been an upset, or at least some sort of a scrappy scare, against Kansas - despite the records, after all, it's not like Kansas has some kind of overwhelming talent advantage. The Jayhawks won 45-7. So much for momentum. What's Changed. Ninety-three percent of the passes Iowa State attempted since 2004 were from the scattershot arm of Bret Meyer, and the only reason the number wasn't higher is that it took Meyer a few games to take a firm hold on the job as a redshirt freshman and coaches decided to get a head start in the transition to Austen Arnaud at the end of last year's debacle. Meyer threw every pass in 2005 and all but four - double throws off screen passes, a fake punt, etc. - in 2006. But Meyer is one of these guys whose around forever and is just...around. He never really improved; statistically, in fact, quite the opposite. Meyer didn't have a single game as a sophomore with a passer rating as low as his season average as a senior, which in the end was a gaping thirty points back of his 2005 efficiency. His TD:INT ratio went from +4 as a freshman to +9 his second year, then back down to even in 2006 and finally to -4 last year. His yards and yards per attempt dipped every season.
So there's probably not a lot of gnashing of teeth over Arnaud, whose most significant playing time came in the wins over Kansas State, against whom he led a touchdown drive, and Colorado. The other guy in the mix is Phillip Bates, a good high school passer (Spring guide indicates he set school passing records in Omaha) with enough athleticism that he played in ten games as a receiver and made a critical catch to set up the winning field goal against Iowa (though, if you'll notice in the clip, he doesn't exactly burn a much bigger Hawkeye linebacker down the field). Even if they have to go spread option crazy because they're scared to let the new guy throw, this is bound to be a lateral shift at worst from the slowly sinking ship of the last two years.
What's the Same. Almost everything is the same, though not in a good way, since the few departures from the starting lineup were the most productive: Meyer, leading receiver Todd Blythe, leading tacklers Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks. There is a good bit of returning experience, and it is career rabble, used to finishing at the bottom of the conference in almost every way.
The table was tragically destroyed when Chizik attacked his reflection.
- - -
The running game is in conceivably competent hands, even after most frequently-used back J.J. Bass was suspended over the weekend. Freshman Alexander Robinson had a couple big games as the offense found a little life down the stretch, including the best day (149 yards on 7.1 per carry) any single running back had against Missouri all season and a 127-yard, two-touchdown effort in the win over Colorado. Robinson is the best bet on paper to handle most of the carries, though he only got into the lineup after an injury to Jason Scales, who is on top of the "official" Spring depth chart. None of the top ballcarriers - Robinson, Bass or Scales - topped four yards per carry on the season, anyway. Hail, Hail, the Bubble Screen's Still Here. How low-flow the offense was outside of Blythe, Meyer's main target all four years they played together, and the only big-play guy? Returnees Marquis Hamilton and R.J. Sumrall caught 99 passes last year. One was for a touchdown. Blythe had an incredible knack for the end zone, averaging about one score per five or six catches every year. One in five or six vs. One in ninety-nine.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. If Arnaud led the quarterback derby heading into practice, Bates separated himself from the bench at least a little in the Spring <strike>game</strike>scrimmage:
I thought that (quarterback) Phillip (Bates) did some things that were really nice. Phillip drove the football team better today than (quarterback) Austen (Arnaud). That doesn't mean that is always the case. Everyone who was out there saw that Phil moved our football team. At the end of the day, we are going to see who moves our team the best and who turns the ball over the least. It was real clear cut today and today that was Phillip. But that certainly, in my mind, doesn't separate the two. There were days when it was exactly the opposite.
- - -
As to the actual success of either quarterback, though, Chizik also offers this clue as to his expectations: Today, we couldn't get a first down. That is not all bad.
- - -
First downs: overrated. Frustrating the hell out of everyone by doing the whole "look to the sidelines" thing for the play after you've already lined up? According to Bates, ¡que magnifico! It looks like you guys are integrating something new with the quarterbacks looking over the sidelines at the line of scrimmage. "We started that before the spring [practices]. It's something that we've worked on and have tried
to get better at, with signals and stuff. We're getting better, but we have to work harder."
- - -
Is that all you need, guys? Yes? Okay, Philip, thank you. That was perfect. Here is your brain. See you at totally voluntary workouts this summer, right? Ha ha, great. Of course we will. You can untie those leather straps now, fellas! Iowa State on You Tube. You might think the new branding effort is a harmless way for "Cyclone Nation" to band together under derivative uniforms and a huge letter of the alphabet. You might also be a Cy-hating Communist:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KAoa0cwV0E4&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>An informal tally of mascot-specific helmet logos in Div. I-A: uh, Mike the Tiger? I think the various buffaloes, longhorns, beavers, razorbacks, trojans, wildcats, hawkeyes, etc. are a little too generic to qualify. But at least those things are what they claim to be, whereas Cy is in no way an actual Cyclone. He just rides around in one because he's too lazy to fly, like a regular cardinal or whatever he is. Give it up, guys.
See Also: Campus scenes: 1932, 1946, 1963, and under siege from a tornado. ... A student in an ISU dorm actually gets four solid minutes out of this Cribs spoof. Nice editing, but what's with the OU flag? ... Hammer vs. Roorda in the Iowa State Syrup Challenge. ... And this run will never get old.
Best-Case: Turning the thing around, one quasi-upset at a time. For some reason, the team tends to talk in interviews in terms of winning the conference; this is uplifting, rhetorically, and completely crazy based on all available evidence. The best ISU can hope for is something of a breakout season for one of the two promising sophomores in the backfield, Bates and Robinson, an inspired leap to mediocrity by the defense and regression from one of the three rivals on the schedule (Colorado, Kansas State and Oklahoma State) that seem somewhat within reach.
Worst-Case: Patron coach of lost causes. Since the entire conference outside of Baylor looks at ISU and licks its chops, the Big 12 schedule can be written off as a lost cause, in the 1-7 range. It's not certain the offense will be in sync enough early to keep up with Kent State and/or UNLV in September. A loss in either of those games could condemn them to 2-10 purgatory, a backwards step Chizik may not be able to endure.
Non-Binding Forecast: One tiny step forward or Bust. There's no reason at all to expect the Cyclones to be better on the field, though it's also unlikely ISU will bite the dust again against an early spate of mid-major walkovers. Even if it starts 3-1 in non-conference play, though, instead of 1-3, it will take an upset to get State even to two Big 12 wins. Chizik can count it a big step forward to get to 5-7.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 3-9 (2-6 Big 12, 6th North)
2003-07: 23-37 (11-29 Big 12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2003-07: 42 • 58 • 63 • 60 • 62</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>14 (7 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 99, 99) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>The More You Know</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 235, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
Iowa State's season went through three distinct cycles last year, Gene Chizik's first as boss: September: Disaster. ISU lost its first two games to MAC also-ran Kent State and I-AA Northern Iowa, both by two scores, and then to another MAC also-ran, Toledo. If not for an inexplicable upset of Iowa in between, it would have been the worst opening month in the country, all things considered. October: A winless month, but one of undeniable progress by fire against a brutal series of ranked teams. Compare the losses to Texas Tech (by 25 points) and Texas (by 53 points) to the losses to Oklahoma (by ten points, with the game still in doubt well into the fourth quarter) and to Missouri (in which ISU outgained the Tigers while holding them to a regular season low in total offense), and you get a picture of a team clearly moving forward.
November: Breakthrough. Out of kiln of the league's heavy hitters, ISU won two straight over Kansas State and Colorado, both of which came in above .500 with major upsets on their record (Texas in Kansas State's case, Oklahoma for Colorado).
Does that mean anything for 2008? It might look that way, if not for the ending: the validation of the upward arc would have been an upset, or at least some sort of a scrappy scare, against Kansas - despite the records, after all, it's not like Kansas has some kind of overwhelming talent advantage. The Jayhawks won 45-7. So much for momentum. What's Changed. Ninety-three percent of the passes Iowa State attempted since 2004 were from the scattershot arm of Bret Meyer, and the only reason the number wasn't higher is that it took Meyer a few games to take a firm hold on the job as a redshirt freshman and coaches decided to get a head start in the transition to Austen Arnaud at the end of last year's debacle. Meyer threw every pass in 2005 and all but four - double throws off screen passes, a fake punt, etc. - in 2006. But Meyer is one of these guys whose around forever and is just...around. He never really improved; statistically, in fact, quite the opposite. Meyer didn't have a single game as a sophomore with a passer rating as low as his season average as a senior, which in the end was a gaping thirty points back of his 2005 efficiency. His TD:INT ratio went from +4 as a freshman to +9 his second year, then back down to even in 2006 and finally to -4 last year. His yards and yards per attempt dipped every season.
So there's probably not a lot of gnashing of teeth over Arnaud, whose most significant playing time came in the wins over Kansas State, against whom he led a touchdown drive, and Colorado. The other guy in the mix is Phillip Bates, a good high school passer (Spring guide indicates he set school passing records in Omaha) with enough athleticism that he played in ten games as a receiver and made a critical catch to set up the winning field goal against Iowa (though, if you'll notice in the clip, he doesn't exactly burn a much bigger Hawkeye linebacker down the field). Even if they have to go spread option crazy because they're scared to let the new guy throw, this is bound to be a lateral shift at worst from the slowly sinking ship of the last two years.
What's the Same. Almost everything is the same, though not in a good way, since the few departures from the starting lineup were the most productive: Meyer, leading receiver Todd Blythe, leading tacklers Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks. There is a good bit of returning experience, and it is career rabble, used to finishing at the bottom of the conference in almost every way.
The table was tragically destroyed when Chizik attacked his reflection.
- - -
The running game is in conceivably competent hands, even after most frequently-used back J.J. Bass was suspended over the weekend. Freshman Alexander Robinson had a couple big games as the offense found a little life down the stretch, including the best day (149 yards on 7.1 per carry) any single running back had against Missouri all season and a 127-yard, two-touchdown effort in the win over Colorado. Robinson is the best bet on paper to handle most of the carries, though he only got into the lineup after an injury to Jason Scales, who is on top of the "official" Spring depth chart. None of the top ballcarriers - Robinson, Bass or Scales - topped four yards per carry on the season, anyway. Hail, Hail, the Bubble Screen's Still Here. How low-flow the offense was outside of Blythe, Meyer's main target all four years they played together, and the only big-play guy? Returnees Marquis Hamilton and R.J. Sumrall caught 99 passes last year. One was for a touchdown. Blythe had an incredible knack for the end zone, averaging about one score per five or six catches every year. One in five or six vs. One in ninety-nine.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. If Arnaud led the quarterback derby heading into practice, Bates separated himself from the bench at least a little in the Spring <strike>game</strike>scrimmage:
I thought that (quarterback) Phillip (Bates) did some things that were really nice. Phillip drove the football team better today than (quarterback) Austen (Arnaud). That doesn't mean that is always the case. Everyone who was out there saw that Phil moved our football team. At the end of the day, we are going to see who moves our team the best and who turns the ball over the least. It was real clear cut today and today that was Phillip. But that certainly, in my mind, doesn't separate the two. There were days when it was exactly the opposite.
- - -
As to the actual success of either quarterback, though, Chizik also offers this clue as to his expectations: Today, we couldn't get a first down. That is not all bad.
- - -
First downs: overrated. Frustrating the hell out of everyone by doing the whole "look to the sidelines" thing for the play after you've already lined up? According to Bates, ¡que magnifico! It looks like you guys are integrating something new with the quarterbacks looking over the sidelines at the line of scrimmage. "We started that before the spring [practices]. It's something that we've worked on and have tried
to get better at, with signals and stuff. We're getting better, but we have to work harder."
- - -
Is that all you need, guys? Yes? Okay, Philip, thank you. That was perfect. Here is your brain. See you at totally voluntary workouts this summer, right? Ha ha, great. Of course we will. You can untie those leather straps now, fellas! Iowa State on You Tube. You might think the new branding effort is a harmless way for "Cyclone Nation" to band together under derivative uniforms and a huge letter of the alphabet. You might also be a Cy-hating Communist:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KAoa0cwV0E4&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>An informal tally of mascot-specific helmet logos in Div. I-A: uh, Mike the Tiger? I think the various buffaloes, longhorns, beavers, razorbacks, trojans, wildcats, hawkeyes, etc. are a little too generic to qualify. But at least those things are what they claim to be, whereas Cy is in no way an actual Cyclone. He just rides around in one because he's too lazy to fly, like a regular cardinal or whatever he is. Give it up, guys.
See Also: Campus scenes: 1932, 1946, 1963, and under siege from a tornado. ... A student in an ISU dorm actually gets four solid minutes out of this Cribs spoof. Nice editing, but what's with the OU flag? ... Hammer vs. Roorda in the Iowa State Syrup Challenge. ... And this run will never get old.
Best-Case: Turning the thing around, one quasi-upset at a time. For some reason, the team tends to talk in interviews in terms of winning the conference; this is uplifting, rhetorically, and completely crazy based on all available evidence. The best ISU can hope for is something of a breakout season for one of the two promising sophomores in the backfield, Bates and Robinson, an inspired leap to mediocrity by the defense and regression from one of the three rivals on the schedule (Colorado, Kansas State and Oklahoma State) that seem somewhat within reach.
Worst-Case: Patron coach of lost causes. Since the entire conference outside of Baylor looks at ISU and licks its chops, the Big 12 schedule can be written off as a lost cause, in the 1-7 range. It's not certain the offense will be in sync enough early to keep up with Kent State and/or UNLV in September. A loss in either of those games could condemn them to 2-10 purgatory, a backwards step Chizik may not be able to endure.
Non-Binding Forecast: One tiny step forward or Bust. There's no reason at all to expect the Cyclones to be better on the field, though it's also unlikely ISU will bite the dust again against an early spate of mid-major walkovers. Even if it starts 3-1 in non-conference play, though, instead of 1-3, it will take an upset to get State even to two Big 12 wins. Chizik can count it a big step forward to get to 5-7.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Miami
by SMQ on Apr 21, 2008 9:54 AM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Miami... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="185"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 5-7 (2-6 ACC, 5th Coastal)
2003-07: 41-21 (22-17 ACC/Big East)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 4 • 7 • 14 • 19 • 5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>11 (4 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
With so much veteran defensive talent en route to the NFL, all of the half-dozen or so candidates for this title are highly-sought prospects not yet fully removed from the "potential" phase of their career – that is, middling or part-time starters who haven’t been disappointing enough to write off. The pro scouts seem to have given up on few of UM’s blue chip underachievers, at least, and none less so than Eric Moncur, the only one of last year’s deep pass-rushing contingent back on this year’s line. Moncur has 7.5 career sacks, a number he has the talent to double if he doesn’t yield most of his time to hot young ‘un Allen Bailey.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Weep For Your Childhood</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Noooooo! They be destroyin the Orange Bowl!
<object height="135" width="185">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/N_nWqnicgu8&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="135" width="185"></object></p>Okay, seriously, you guys, the first game I remember watching on TV was the 1988 Orange Bowl, Miami over Oklahoma to secure its second mythical title, and that big, winking orange. That logo has never looked right on Corporate Name Field. Our children will never know such putrid lighting. Part Two is here, and it’s not for the sentimental.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. Miami built its name on first rate quarterbacks and receivers, and it still recruits them, at least. The fact that Miami's offense can recruit a five-star, consensus number one passer one year (Kyle Wright) and a four-star, top 15 guy the next (Kirby Freeman) and go on to finish last in passing in the country's most conservative, lowest-scoring conference in their fourth and fifth years, respectively, is a kind of scandal. With the alleged receiving talent on hand, the Hurricanes' complete failure on offense the last two years - and especially in 2007, when they finished 110th in total yards and 101st in scoring, barely ahead of Duke on both fronts - must amount to the greatest waste of resources in decades. I like to show big trends visually. The story of Miami's offense looks like this:
Even similarly touted Brock Berlin, harassed as a mediocrity at best after his transfer from Florida, led the offense to a full touchdown more per game in his worst year than Wright and Freeman managed in two years in his wake, under two different offensive coordinators. In years without crazy, stat-zapping clock rules, the national median is about 26-27 points per game. Armed with an experienced group of would-be stars, last year's coaching change made no significant move toward any definition of "average."
So maybe it was the players. We'll find out, because aside from the running backs, they'll be virtually all new across the board offensively. I stress that this cannot possibly be a bad thing. If redshirt freshman Robert Marve is weak-armed, inconsistent and uncertain with little time to find his young set of fleet but maddeningly butterfingery receivers, well, that's just the new normal 'round these parts.
What's the Same. Miami was racked by injuries on the front seven, especially at linebacker, so even with six regulars moving along, six more follow with multiple starts. The only individual who'll be particularly missed is Calais Campbell, probably a first round pick on Saturday, and that's assuming he faced a lot of double teams off the edge last year: Campbell's sack total dipped from his breakout sophomore effort and, despite the love from scouts and all-America projections, he was only honorable mention all-ACC. In terms of production, Eric Moncur was about as good on paper, and if stats don't reflect reality in his case, there's always someone else - Allen Bailey? Dwayne Hendricks? Five-star recruits are incoming at tackle (Marcus Fortson) and linebacker (Arthur Brown), though the former is too big and the latter too small to assume a pass rushing role.
It's Javarris James' neighborhood, but Mr. Cooper is looking to buy.
- - -
Thud and Lightning. If the offense is going to be any better at all, it will be by the hands/feet/vision of the running backs, who have endured yeoman's labor compared to the gaping holes enjoyed their now-millionaire predecessors. It's hard to tell if this contributes to the woes of the passing game or is a result of them, but 2007 was the fourth year in a row Miami has failed to average four yards per carry as a team and the first year that its starter, Javarris James, was under par his own self. Graig Cooper was consistently more explosive, averaging almost five-and-a-half per carry and breaking off five separate runs longer than James' longest carry of the season (just 23 yards), but he wore down late in the year, and there was never any indication Cooper would assume the feature role; James started every game and got a majority of the carries in almost all of them. There are no new stars-in-waiting behind the old ones; if the production between Cooper and James is the same (no reason to think it won't be) the new quarterback is going to have a lot of heavy lifting. Bring On the Smurfs. Two years of unprecedented suck didn't stop Miami from landing one of the most balleyhooed recruiting classes in the country, even if it's a mathematical impossibility to get all 33 guys on campus this fall. It's undoubtedly the smallest, quickest class in the top ten, or so they hope - the `Canes inked seven DB/WR/ATH types from in and around Miami listed by Rivals under 175 pounds: Brandon Harris, Davon Johnson, Jacory Harris, Kendall Tompkins, Thearon Collier, Joe Wylie and Travis Benjamin, who's actually listed at 141, not even heavy enough for the minimum weight in "Create-a-Player" mode on NCAA Football. And most of that is in his dreds.
Both Harrises, Johnson and Benjamin also earned four stars despite their J.V. size, though Jacory Harris, skinniest quarterback in history at 6-4,169, must expend most of his energy trying to avoid bobbing up and down like one of those vintage drinking birds.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. A handful of those hyped freshman are already making waves as early enrollees, three of them on defense:
Ok, I'm going to go against everything I stood for the last few months. I've been the biggest critic of putting too much emphasis on this year's recruiting class. But these young guys can play. Sean Spence, Marcus Forston, Arthur Brown and Aldarius Johnson are names you should expect to hear often. I still say they are just the foundation, but the building could begin sooner than later. The question is how much the spring will impact when playing time is handed out in the preseason and fall. According to coach Randy Shannon, it won't. He said everything starts over, and players will have to prove themselves all over again. We'll see how Spence and Brown play when Colin McCarthy and Romeo Davis return.
[...]
Count [new defensive coordinator] Bill Young among those impressed with Forston, Spence and Brown, "Rarely, do you see guys step up to the level that they have so early in their careers," he said. "These guys shouldn't even be graduating high school yet."
- - -
Again, Forston and Brown are the two OMG five-star studs of the class, and given its recent track record with that caliber recruit, Miami desperately needs them to be all that they can be, etc. Note that there's little buzz about another early enrollee, Jacory Harris, a good sign he's not expected yet to threaten Marve's tenuous hold on the starting quarterback job. Get the complete (seriously: complete) Spring game rundown courtesy of one dedicated Miami Herald blogger here.
Miami on You Tube. Miami-Notre Dame, Game of the Century of the Year, 1989. Third-and-43:
What did you expect? At Notre Dame, tradition never graduates.
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gw1zUKJVEw8&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>See Also: Okay, yeah, but what happened in 1988? ... The original wide right, like you've seen it before, and like you haven't. ... Tamarick Vanover, meet Michael Barrow. ... Sean Taylor, meet Greg Jones. ... The 1984 Orange Bowl. Look for the season scores for Nebraska's offense and Miami's defense, plus the Dean Steinkuhler fumblerooski. ... And Hurricane brawls through history: 1987 vs. South Carolina, 1993 vs. Colorado, vs. Florida International in 2006. You don't come into the O.B. talkin' that stuff.
Best-Case: Okay, let's try the back door. Assuming even a modest return to form on offense, almost every game (the exception being at Florida) will be within reach. This bunch is young and devoid of the old sense of entitlement (do not make me write "swagger"), and therefore not in a position to expect to compete for a conference championship. But it does get two of its biggest, potentially winnable games at home: Florida State in October and Virginia Tech in November. If it can forge a winning record in the other six conference games, split the two big ones and show some demonstrable improvement from a likely beatdown in Gainesville to the annual showdown with the Hokies, no one else in the Coastal division is strong enough to count Miami out of winning it for the first time. I wouldn't pick any final destination glitzier than the Gator Bowl, though.
Worst-Case: Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends. There's no apparent reason the team should be better, and if the usual transition from senior quarterback to redshirt freshman holds, plenty of reasons it will be at least as bad. Once you get past Charleston Southern, the schedule is rough: at Florida, at Texas A&M, vs. Florida State in a four-game span, with fast-rising North Carolina in between, the team that started last year's horrific downward spiral with an upset in Chapel Hill. None of the last five games are gimmes, and if things start poorly, a here-we-go-again mentality is probably not far away. As bad as it was, it could be worse: another 2-6 conference record might leave the `Canes at 4-8, and Shannon on the street.
Non-Binding Forecast: Tire Bowl or Bust. I fell for the coaching change last year, on the logic a fresh face in charge would jolt a talented team back to life. This did not so much happen. And there's not so much to be optimistic about: the best players all graduated or bolted early for the draft, and even the guys nobody is sorry to see go have total noobs in their place. Talent-wise, this is still an upper tier, top ten team that should be ashamed of anything less than the ACC championship, its assumed birthright when it joined this two-bit conference. This time, though, as long as the talent remains unproven, the bar is at seven wins - no crowns, just a simple winning record.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 5-7 (2-6 ACC, 5th Coastal)
2003-07: 41-21 (22-17 ACC/Big East)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 4 • 7 • 14 • 19 • 5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>11 (4 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(232, 156, 106) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Weep For Your Childhood</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(199, 220, 198) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Noooooo! They be destroyin the Orange Bowl!
<object height="135" width="185">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/N_nWqnicgu8&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="135" width="185"></object></p>Okay, seriously, you guys, the first game I remember watching on TV was the 1988 Orange Bowl, Miami over Oklahoma to secure its second mythical title, and that big, winking orange. That logo has never looked right on Corporate Name Field. Our children will never know such putrid lighting. Part Two is here, and it’s not for the sentimental.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. Miami built its name on first rate quarterbacks and receivers, and it still recruits them, at least. The fact that Miami's offense can recruit a five-star, consensus number one passer one year (Kyle Wright) and a four-star, top 15 guy the next (Kirby Freeman) and go on to finish last in passing in the country's most conservative, lowest-scoring conference in their fourth and fifth years, respectively, is a kind of scandal. With the alleged receiving talent on hand, the Hurricanes' complete failure on offense the last two years - and especially in 2007, when they finished 110th in total yards and 101st in scoring, barely ahead of Duke on both fronts - must amount to the greatest waste of resources in decades. I like to show big trends visually. The story of Miami's offense looks like this:
Even similarly touted Brock Berlin, harassed as a mediocrity at best after his transfer from Florida, led the offense to a full touchdown more per game in his worst year than Wright and Freeman managed in two years in his wake, under two different offensive coordinators. In years without crazy, stat-zapping clock rules, the national median is about 26-27 points per game. Armed with an experienced group of would-be stars, last year's coaching change made no significant move toward any definition of "average."
So maybe it was the players. We'll find out, because aside from the running backs, they'll be virtually all new across the board offensively. I stress that this cannot possibly be a bad thing. If redshirt freshman Robert Marve is weak-armed, inconsistent and uncertain with little time to find his young set of fleet but maddeningly butterfingery receivers, well, that's just the new normal 'round these parts.
What's the Same. Miami was racked by injuries on the front seven, especially at linebacker, so even with six regulars moving along, six more follow with multiple starts. The only individual who'll be particularly missed is Calais Campbell, probably a first round pick on Saturday, and that's assuming he faced a lot of double teams off the edge last year: Campbell's sack total dipped from his breakout sophomore effort and, despite the love from scouts and all-America projections, he was only honorable mention all-ACC. In terms of production, Eric Moncur was about as good on paper, and if stats don't reflect reality in his case, there's always someone else - Allen Bailey? Dwayne Hendricks? Five-star recruits are incoming at tackle (Marcus Fortson) and linebacker (Arthur Brown), though the former is too big and the latter too small to assume a pass rushing role.
It's Javarris James' neighborhood, but Mr. Cooper is looking to buy.
- - -
Thud and Lightning. If the offense is going to be any better at all, it will be by the hands/feet/vision of the running backs, who have endured yeoman's labor compared to the gaping holes enjoyed their now-millionaire predecessors. It's hard to tell if this contributes to the woes of the passing game or is a result of them, but 2007 was the fourth year in a row Miami has failed to average four yards per carry as a team and the first year that its starter, Javarris James, was under par his own self. Graig Cooper was consistently more explosive, averaging almost five-and-a-half per carry and breaking off five separate runs longer than James' longest carry of the season (just 23 yards), but he wore down late in the year, and there was never any indication Cooper would assume the feature role; James started every game and got a majority of the carries in almost all of them. There are no new stars-in-waiting behind the old ones; if the production between Cooper and James is the same (no reason to think it won't be) the new quarterback is going to have a lot of heavy lifting. Bring On the Smurfs. Two years of unprecedented suck didn't stop Miami from landing one of the most balleyhooed recruiting classes in the country, even if it's a mathematical impossibility to get all 33 guys on campus this fall. It's undoubtedly the smallest, quickest class in the top ten, or so they hope - the `Canes inked seven DB/WR/ATH types from in and around Miami listed by Rivals under 175 pounds: Brandon Harris, Davon Johnson, Jacory Harris, Kendall Tompkins, Thearon Collier, Joe Wylie and Travis Benjamin, who's actually listed at 141, not even heavy enough for the minimum weight in "Create-a-Player" mode on NCAA Football. And most of that is in his dreds.
Both Harrises, Johnson and Benjamin also earned four stars despite their J.V. size, though Jacory Harris, skinniest quarterback in history at 6-4,169, must expend most of his energy trying to avoid bobbing up and down like one of those vintage drinking birds.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. A handful of those hyped freshman are already making waves as early enrollees, three of them on defense:
Ok, I'm going to go against everything I stood for the last few months. I've been the biggest critic of putting too much emphasis on this year's recruiting class. But these young guys can play. Sean Spence, Marcus Forston, Arthur Brown and Aldarius Johnson are names you should expect to hear often. I still say they are just the foundation, but the building could begin sooner than later. The question is how much the spring will impact when playing time is handed out in the preseason and fall. According to coach Randy Shannon, it won't. He said everything starts over, and players will have to prove themselves all over again. We'll see how Spence and Brown play when Colin McCarthy and Romeo Davis return.
[...]
Count [new defensive coordinator] Bill Young among those impressed with Forston, Spence and Brown, "Rarely, do you see guys step up to the level that they have so early in their careers," he said. "These guys shouldn't even be graduating high school yet."
- - -
Again, Forston and Brown are the two OMG five-star studs of the class, and given its recent track record with that caliber recruit, Miami desperately needs them to be all that they can be, etc. Note that there's little buzz about another early enrollee, Jacory Harris, a good sign he's not expected yet to threaten Marve's tenuous hold on the starting quarterback job. Get the complete (seriously: complete) Spring game rundown courtesy of one dedicated Miami Herald blogger here.
Miami on You Tube. Miami-Notre Dame, Game of the Century of the Year, 1989. Third-and-43:
What did you expect? At Notre Dame, tradition never graduates.
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gw1zUKJVEw8&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>See Also: Okay, yeah, but what happened in 1988? ... The original wide right, like you've seen it before, and like you haven't. ... Tamarick Vanover, meet Michael Barrow. ... Sean Taylor, meet Greg Jones. ... The 1984 Orange Bowl. Look for the season scores for Nebraska's offense and Miami's defense, plus the Dean Steinkuhler fumblerooski. ... And Hurricane brawls through history: 1987 vs. South Carolina, 1993 vs. Colorado, vs. Florida International in 2006. You don't come into the O.B. talkin' that stuff.
Best-Case: Okay, let's try the back door. Assuming even a modest return to form on offense, almost every game (the exception being at Florida) will be within reach. This bunch is young and devoid of the old sense of entitlement (do not make me write "swagger"), and therefore not in a position to expect to compete for a conference championship. But it does get two of its biggest, potentially winnable games at home: Florida State in October and Virginia Tech in November. If it can forge a winning record in the other six conference games, split the two big ones and show some demonstrable improvement from a likely beatdown in Gainesville to the annual showdown with the Hokies, no one else in the Coastal division is strong enough to count Miami out of winning it for the first time. I wouldn't pick any final destination glitzier than the Gator Bowl, though.
Worst-Case: Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends. There's no apparent reason the team should be better, and if the usual transition from senior quarterback to redshirt freshman holds, plenty of reasons it will be at least as bad. Once you get past Charleston Southern, the schedule is rough: at Florida, at Texas A&M, vs. Florida State in a four-game span, with fast-rising North Carolina in between, the team that started last year's horrific downward spiral with an upset in Chapel Hill. None of the last five games are gimmes, and if things start poorly, a here-we-go-again mentality is probably not far away. As bad as it was, it could be worse: another 2-6 conference record might leave the `Canes at 4-8, and Shannon on the street.
Non-Binding Forecast: Tire Bowl or Bust. I fell for the coaching change last year, on the logic a fresh face in charge would jolt a talented team back to life. This did not so much happen. And there's not so much to be optimistic about: the best players all graduated or bolted early for the draft, and even the guys nobody is sorry to see go have total noobs in their place. Talent-wise, this is still an upper tier, top ten team that should be ashamed of anything less than the ACC championship, its assumed birthright when it joined this two-bit conference. This time, though, as long as the talent remains unproven, the bar is at seven wins - no crowns, just a simple winning record.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Virginia
by SMQ on Apr 16, 2008 6:38 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Virginia... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="190"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>• 2007: 9-4 (6-2 ACC; 2nd/Coastal)
• 2003-07: 37-25 (22-18 ACC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 40 • 19 • 39 • 25 • 61</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>12 (6 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
Phil Steele, Rivals, Scout, SuperPrep, your cousin, your grocery bagger, Nas, the corpses of both James Dean and Gavrilo Princip and whoever else dared to venture an opinion in 2005 ranked Eugene Monroe the best incoming offensive tackle in the country, and he was legitimately next-big-thing as a true freshman. Monroe only split starting duties as a sophomore, though, losing his job after the first three games, and was overshadowed in postseason awards and draft hype last year by Branden Albert despite giving up zero sacks against the likes of Calais Campbell, Hilee Taylor, Darrell Robertson and Chris Ellis. Four years in, if he’s not actually the best tackle in the country, Monroe is the only Virginia player after the offseason roster purges worthy of any award hype. Scouts will always have a soft spot or 320-pounders.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Apocryphal Mascot Anecdote</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
One of the old Virginia mascots was a black-and-white mongrel dog named Beta who was loved by the campus, attended courses about Plato and barked at his name during roll call, etc. Story goes the dog was left behind in Athens after a UVA game with Georgia in the thirties, a good 393 miles from Charlottesville. Two weeks later, Beta shows up scratching at the back door of the frat house in charge of him, "cold, ragged and hungry." Over 14 days, that’s 28 miles a day, about a marathon. If Beta walked nonstop – no eating, no sleeping, no wandering off course – he’d have to cover a little more than a mile an hour to get from Athens to the Virginia campus in that time, assuming he was always on track. Could Smokey pull that off? Uga? Please. Uga can’t make it through halftime without stopping to lay down and pant on his ice bag. I tell ya, these mascot dogs today are for shit.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. Virginia won nine games without being demonstrably good at anything last year, with the notable exception of the efforts led by the defensive line: stopping the run and rushing the passer. The Cavs were thirteenth nationally in rush defense, one of only ten defenses to hold opponents under three yards per carry, and tied with Ohio State for sixth in sacks; by every other measure, the team was thoroughly mediocre, occasionally (as in the offensive passing game) truly bad. The biggest part of that push was soon-to-be-millionaire Chris Long, but not enough attention was paid to his up-and-coming counterpart, sophomore Jeffrey Fitzgerald, who had seven sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss and scored a difference-making touchdown on an interception (created by a Long tip) against Georgia Tech. With Long basking in all the draft hype, and nose tackle Allen Billyk following him out, at least another potential star would be holding down the front. But, oh, what a fun offseason it's been. Fitzgerald was one of three Cavs AWOL from class in January, and subsequently put on academic probation through the entire 2008-09 term; he'll probably transfer, leaving zero holdovers from the only unambiguous positive of last year's team. Among other players suspended for being academic no-shows were starting quarterback Jameel Sewell and Andrew Pearman, a return guy expected to make some noise in the running back rotation. Among other players suspended or booted outright since December are linebacker/accused credit card thief J'Courtney Williams and backup cornerback/alleged e-Bay abuser Mike Brown. Altogether, seven players with remaining eligibility have left UVA since the end of the season, only one of them - probably first round pick Branden Albert, an all-ACC choice so badass he left school early as a guard - voluntarily. On top of the other nine starters trickling out due to natural causes, any sense of momentum or continuity from the `07 turnaround will be hard to come by.
Wait, these guys are supposed to be in class?! When was I supposed to find out about this?
- - -
What's the Same. Only twice last year, in the loss to N.C. State and the one-point win over Wake Forest the next week, did Virginia attempt more passes than runs, which will be two more times than it happens this fall if the gameplan has its way. Not only is UVA breaking in a new, inexperienced quarterback who lacks Sewell's athleticism (Sewell was over 400 yards rushing before sacks each of his two seasons as a starter), but it returns two nearly identical starting running backs, Mikell Simpson and Cedric Peerman, whose combined production should be better than any other two backs in the ACC except James Davis and C.J. Spiller. There would have been no discernible difference last year if Simpson and Peerman were actually the same guy: Peerman had 113 carries for 570 yards in the first six games before going down for the rest of the season with a foot injury; Simpson, who had no carries in the games Peerman played, had 113 in the last six games for 585 yards. Vespucci couldn't map a division of labor that clean or symmetrical. Simpson was far more active in the passing game - 43 catches to Peerman's 13 - which might entice coaches to get both of them on the field with Simpson in some kind of receiving role. It's not like there are any other great options: the top wide receiver last year only caught 21 balls, well behind Simpson and two graduating tight ends (does Groh's offense ever love its tight ends), so even with `06 leader Kevin Ogletree back from a medical redshirt, they need all the weapons they can get out there.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. If you're trying to form any conclusions about the new quarterback from statistics, harumphs Al Groh, you're fooling yourself. That's good news for Peter Lalich, the only one of the three contestants with any game experience, since the sophomore's numbers fell well short of Scott Deke and Marc Verica in the Spring game. Lalich is the assumed heir to Sewell's underwhelming tenure, since he beat Deke and Verica for the backup spot as a true freshman and wound up playing early and often, but coaches let Deke start the last scrimmage for coming closest to the number in Groh's head. That may explain why Lalich is a little "testy" about being subjected to an open competition: telling a reporter "I don't have anything to say about that" in the age of careful PR training and team-oriented, no-control-over-that, one-day-at-a-time cliché is actually saying plenty about that, specifically, "I find it insulting and uncouth to be even subjected to position drills with these scurrilous ruffians," or something like that.
Based on nothing at all but a single line in one obscure newspaper story, I declare Deke the fan favorite, since he was a never-used senior who was "prepared to head into the work force" until Groh asked him back for a fifth year. His quote for the reporters? ""The opportunity to play football at the University of Virginia and be a student for another year was just a no-brainer." Lines like that are good for one solid "Get Out of Jail Free" card from the partisans, to be redeemed after the first (and only the first) of what is sure to be many, many interceptions.
Virginia on You Tube. I'm not saying Colin Cowherd speaks for America. Certainly he does not, on anything. But if he ever came close, well, Virginia fans, y'all do wear the traditional sundresses or coat and tie to football games:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/o15hCNJ_V8Y&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>What are you going to say to that? "At least we have class"? As Colin well knows, class is for losers.
See Also: There's a lotta gratuitous Cav hatin' out there, like this very active-armed young Hokie, who thinks ripping UVA is so nice he ripped `em twice, and needless antagonism of the Cavaqueers. ... Chris Long, running and jumping at the combine like a man 70 pounds lighter. ... And remember when Virginia was No. 1? It happened for a few weeks in 1990, thanks to the Moore Brothers, and they looked like it against Clemson, until eventual mythical champ Georgia Tech came to town.
Ogletree: If his ACL's alright, the only thing that's better than last year.
- - -
Best-Case. One good definition of "best case" is "win a bunch of evenly-played games by the narrowest of margins," and by that standard, last year was a banner year. Five of UVA's nine wins were by two points or less; in one four-week stretch in late October/early November, the Cavs won three different games by a single point. Even if this team retains whatever combination of clock management, cool-headed fortitude and dumb luck it deployed to prevail in those games, the significant attrition on both sides is going to knock half of those games out of striking distance to begin with. With a set of backups vying to be the quarterback, no apparent difference-makers anywhere else on the offense, and the most disruptive individual defensive force in the country moving on, another nine-win effort is a little off the deep end. A bowl game, in fact, might be a little off the deep end. With as little good as I can spot on paper, a .500 ceiling seems generous. Worst-Case. If the offense is as bad as it has the potential to be - and that's a real special kind of bad, in the offensively-challenged ACC - the only games that look `automatic' are Richmond and Duke. And who knows yet what Cutcliffe's got going on at Duke? What happens to the collective confidence if USC scores 65 in the opener? Without the little edge that got UVA over the top in so many games last year, 2-10 is not out of the question. I can pick ten teams on the schedule I'd pick to beat Virginia if they played tomorrow, including East Carolina.
Non-Binding Forecast. Given that the difference between the nine-win, coach-feting success the team got and the four-win, coach-killing disaster it nearly got was almost nil with the pending first pick in the draft, I'd be surprised to find anybody who didn't predict a significant backslide. Major personnel losses, new quarterback on an already low-flow offense, an ongoing string of off-field trouble - the bill is coming due. The only mitigating element is the program's general consistency, under both Groh and his predecessor, George Welsh, who together have fallen short of .500 only twice in the last 20 years. On that arc, the absolute low end of the scale is 5-7; since the situation strikes me as that kind of desperate, without looking closely at any of Virginia's opponents, 5-7 is the bet I'd make.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>• 2007: 9-4 (6-2 ACC; 2nd/Coastal)
• 2003-07: 37-25 (22-18 ACC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 40 • 19 • 39 • 25 • 61</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>12 (6 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Apocryphal Mascot Anecdote</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
What's Changed. Virginia won nine games without being demonstrably good at anything last year, with the notable exception of the efforts led by the defensive line: stopping the run and rushing the passer. The Cavs were thirteenth nationally in rush defense, one of only ten defenses to hold opponents under three yards per carry, and tied with Ohio State for sixth in sacks; by every other measure, the team was thoroughly mediocre, occasionally (as in the offensive passing game) truly bad. The biggest part of that push was soon-to-be-millionaire Chris Long, but not enough attention was paid to his up-and-coming counterpart, sophomore Jeffrey Fitzgerald, who had seven sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss and scored a difference-making touchdown on an interception (created by a Long tip) against Georgia Tech. With Long basking in all the draft hype, and nose tackle Allen Billyk following him out, at least another potential star would be holding down the front. But, oh, what a fun offseason it's been. Fitzgerald was one of three Cavs AWOL from class in January, and subsequently put on academic probation through the entire 2008-09 term; he'll probably transfer, leaving zero holdovers from the only unambiguous positive of last year's team. Among other players suspended for being academic no-shows were starting quarterback Jameel Sewell and Andrew Pearman, a return guy expected to make some noise in the running back rotation. Among other players suspended or booted outright since December are linebacker/accused credit card thief J'Courtney Williams and backup cornerback/alleged e-Bay abuser Mike Brown. Altogether, seven players with remaining eligibility have left UVA since the end of the season, only one of them - probably first round pick Branden Albert, an all-ACC choice so badass he left school early as a guard - voluntarily. On top of the other nine starters trickling out due to natural causes, any sense of momentum or continuity from the `07 turnaround will be hard to come by.
Wait, these guys are supposed to be in class?! When was I supposed to find out about this?
- - -
What's the Same. Only twice last year, in the loss to N.C. State and the one-point win over Wake Forest the next week, did Virginia attempt more passes than runs, which will be two more times than it happens this fall if the gameplan has its way. Not only is UVA breaking in a new, inexperienced quarterback who lacks Sewell's athleticism (Sewell was over 400 yards rushing before sacks each of his two seasons as a starter), but it returns two nearly identical starting running backs, Mikell Simpson and Cedric Peerman, whose combined production should be better than any other two backs in the ACC except James Davis and C.J. Spiller. There would have been no discernible difference last year if Simpson and Peerman were actually the same guy: Peerman had 113 carries for 570 yards in the first six games before going down for the rest of the season with a foot injury; Simpson, who had no carries in the games Peerman played, had 113 in the last six games for 585 yards. Vespucci couldn't map a division of labor that clean or symmetrical. Simpson was far more active in the passing game - 43 catches to Peerman's 13 - which might entice coaches to get both of them on the field with Simpson in some kind of receiving role. It's not like there are any other great options: the top wide receiver last year only caught 21 balls, well behind Simpson and two graduating tight ends (does Groh's offense ever love its tight ends), so even with `06 leader Kevin Ogletree back from a medical redshirt, they need all the weapons they can get out there.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. If you're trying to form any conclusions about the new quarterback from statistics, harumphs Al Groh, you're fooling yourself. That's good news for Peter Lalich, the only one of the three contestants with any game experience, since the sophomore's numbers fell well short of Scott Deke and Marc Verica in the Spring game. Lalich is the assumed heir to Sewell's underwhelming tenure, since he beat Deke and Verica for the backup spot as a true freshman and wound up playing early and often, but coaches let Deke start the last scrimmage for coming closest to the number in Groh's head. That may explain why Lalich is a little "testy" about being subjected to an open competition: telling a reporter "I don't have anything to say about that" in the age of careful PR training and team-oriented, no-control-over-that, one-day-at-a-time cliché is actually saying plenty about that, specifically, "I find it insulting and uncouth to be even subjected to position drills with these scurrilous ruffians," or something like that.
Based on nothing at all but a single line in one obscure newspaper story, I declare Deke the fan favorite, since he was a never-used senior who was "prepared to head into the work force" until Groh asked him back for a fifth year. His quote for the reporters? ""The opportunity to play football at the University of Virginia and be a student for another year was just a no-brainer." Lines like that are good for one solid "Get Out of Jail Free" card from the partisans, to be redeemed after the first (and only the first) of what is sure to be many, many interceptions.
Virginia on You Tube. I'm not saying Colin Cowherd speaks for America. Certainly he does not, on anything. But if he ever came close, well, Virginia fans, y'all do wear the traditional sundresses or coat and tie to football games:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/o15hCNJ_V8Y&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>What are you going to say to that? "At least we have class"? As Colin well knows, class is for losers.
See Also: There's a lotta gratuitous Cav hatin' out there, like this very active-armed young Hokie, who thinks ripping UVA is so nice he ripped `em twice, and needless antagonism of the Cavaqueers. ... Chris Long, running and jumping at the combine like a man 70 pounds lighter. ... And remember when Virginia was No. 1? It happened for a few weeks in 1990, thanks to the Moore Brothers, and they looked like it against Clemson, until eventual mythical champ Georgia Tech came to town.
Ogletree: If his ACL's alright, the only thing that's better than last year.
- - -
Best-Case. One good definition of "best case" is "win a bunch of evenly-played games by the narrowest of margins," and by that standard, last year was a banner year. Five of UVA's nine wins were by two points or less; in one four-week stretch in late October/early November, the Cavs won three different games by a single point. Even if this team retains whatever combination of clock management, cool-headed fortitude and dumb luck it deployed to prevail in those games, the significant attrition on both sides is going to knock half of those games out of striking distance to begin with. With a set of backups vying to be the quarterback, no apparent difference-makers anywhere else on the offense, and the most disruptive individual defensive force in the country moving on, another nine-win effort is a little off the deep end. A bowl game, in fact, might be a little off the deep end. With as little good as I can spot on paper, a .500 ceiling seems generous. Worst-Case. If the offense is as bad as it has the potential to be - and that's a real special kind of bad, in the offensively-challenged ACC - the only games that look `automatic' are Richmond and Duke. And who knows yet what Cutcliffe's got going on at Duke? What happens to the collective confidence if USC scores 65 in the opener? Without the little edge that got UVA over the top in so many games last year, 2-10 is not out of the question. I can pick ten teams on the schedule I'd pick to beat Virginia if they played tomorrow, including East Carolina.
Non-Binding Forecast. Given that the difference between the nine-win, coach-feting success the team got and the four-win, coach-killing disaster it nearly got was almost nil with the pending first pick in the draft, I'd be surprised to find anybody who didn't predict a significant backslide. Major personnel losses, new quarterback on an already low-flow offense, an ongoing string of off-field trouble - the bill is coming due. The only mitigating element is the program's general consistency, under both Groh and his predecessor, George Welsh, who together have fallen short of .500 only twice in the last 20 years. On that arc, the absolute low end of the scale is 5-7; since the situation strikes me as that kind of desperate, without looking closely at any of Virginia's opponents, 5-7 is the bet I'd make.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Nouveau Riche: Illinois
by SMQ on Apr 14, 2008 2:51 PM EDT in News
The Norm. Ron Zook's first two years looked a lot like Ron Turner's first two years. And Ron Turner's last two years. In producing a spike from a trough, neither is far from the long arc of Illinois history. Illini partisans will remember that Turner, too, had a leap year that ended in a lopsided BCS loss in 2001:
The fact is, since the start of the first Eisenhower administration, Illinois gets about one big season every seven or eight years. Take a measure of high-end success like January bowl games, for example, and they're eerily distributed: 1946, 1951, 1963, 1983, 1989, 1990, 2001, 2007. Excluding the seventies, which were consistently terrible, Urbana-Champaign med students could count on one outstanding football effort during their hellish tenure. Not that they had time to notice.
Get Used To It. The `01 Illini was a genuine outlier, a good team with a very good senior quarterback peaking just in time to conquer a down year for the conference; see Purdue the previous season. Even though most of the team returned in 2002, including most of the stars - Brandon Lloyd, Antoineo Harris, Tony Pashos, Eugene Wilson - Illinois couldn't replace Kurt Kittner, got gashed on defense, started 1-5 and initiated the awful three-year slide that brought the axe down on Turner. It had its day, but when the bill came, its talent was spent.
Not so the current bunch, thanks to Zook's heroic/maniacal zest for stalking muscular teenagers under adverse conditions. On bodily-kinesthetic assessments, this should be one of the most talented Illinois teams in years, and has the feel of a team still riding an upward arc. Arrelious Benn did what most great freshmen do, which is drop jaws on a sporadic, haphazard basis (remember that awesome run-and-catch against Penn State? It was Benn's only touchdown catch of the regular season). As a sophomore, he should be the best receiver in the Big Ten, assuming coaches continue to whittle Juice Williams into a competent trigger man. Benn's five-star counterpart on defense is Martez Wilson, another scout's dream who moves from defensive end to J Leman's position at middle linebacker; corner Vontae Davis returns off an all-conference season, and defensive line is crowded enough that sack leader Will Davis is still fighting for his position on the depth chart this spring.
Enjoy It While It Lasts. The football gods, they give, but also they take away.You can try to make some half-baked argument about who exactly represented the "heart and soul" of last year's team, or something, or you can look at the reality in black-and-white: Rashard Mendenhall set school records for yards and touchdowns in a season, was the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and provided the only glimmers of hope in the Rose Bowl; Leman led the team in tackles the last two years, was all-Big Ten on both occasions and carried the spirit of embattled Chief Illiniwek in his indomitable enthusiasm and unflinching locks (aka, The Father, Son and Holy Mullet). Including the Mighty J, all four of the top tacklers the last two years are graduating.
Success, like sanity, is a fragile state.
- - -
Approximate Staying Power. Historically, another nine-win season is a bad bet. A lot is riding on the continued development of Williams and Benn, which is a pretty good bet, but it was fundamentally Mendenhall and Leman that made their respective units tick. Outsiders can't judge something like locker room impact, but Leman as a senior seemed like a classic "glue" guy; in more tangible terms, neither his nor Mendenhall's production will be matched by any individual. Then again, it would also be a surprise if a team with so much young talent regressed out of a bowl game. This is a key transition year: if the Illini aren't a serious threat to wind up in the Rose Bowl again this fall, they can be in 2009, when Williams, Benn, Wilson, Davis et al will be on their farewell tour and expectations should be high regardless. How high - like top ten, potentially - depends on whether the offense shows more balance and finds some approximation of Mendenhall, even if it takes a committee, and whether the new guys on defense make the scouts look smart.
One thing you can't say: however ugly it was when they got there, the Illini didn't climb to the Rose Bowl on the bones of nobodies. Three years ago, in Zook's first year, Illinois lost its last nine games by an average of 30 points, never coming closer than 17 to winning any Big Ten game. Last year, a lot of those same players knocked off Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State, played Missouri into the closing seconds with Williams out of the lineup and had opportunities to win close games against Michigan and Iowa. Not that such margins can be tossed aside, but all of a sudden they were roughly three touchdowns from a perfect regular season. So this team should be able - or should at least have the confidence to be able - to line up against anyone. In that regard, they're not going anywhere.
- - -
Update [2008-4-27 15:6:56 by SMQ]: An Illinois board is scratching its head over the line about Martez Wilson moving to middle linebacker. To follow up, Wilson is listed as the starting middle linebacker on this depth chart, by Rivals, and as a linebacker (no depth chart) in the school's official Spring guide.
The Norm. Ron Zook's first two years looked a lot like Ron Turner's first two years. And Ron Turner's last two years. In producing a spike from a trough, neither is far from the long arc of Illinois history. Illini partisans will remember that Turner, too, had a leap year that ended in a lopsided BCS loss in 2001:
The fact is, since the start of the first Eisenhower administration, Illinois gets about one big season every seven or eight years. Take a measure of high-end success like January bowl games, for example, and they're eerily distributed: 1946, 1951, 1963, 1983, 1989, 1990, 2001, 2007. Excluding the seventies, which were consistently terrible, Urbana-Champaign med students could count on one outstanding football effort during their hellish tenure. Not that they had time to notice.
Get Used To It. The `01 Illini was a genuine outlier, a good team with a very good senior quarterback peaking just in time to conquer a down year for the conference; see Purdue the previous season. Even though most of the team returned in 2002, including most of the stars - Brandon Lloyd, Antoineo Harris, Tony Pashos, Eugene Wilson - Illinois couldn't replace Kurt Kittner, got gashed on defense, started 1-5 and initiated the awful three-year slide that brought the axe down on Turner. It had its day, but when the bill came, its talent was spent.
Not so the current bunch, thanks to Zook's heroic/maniacal zest for stalking muscular teenagers under adverse conditions. On bodily-kinesthetic assessments, this should be one of the most talented Illinois teams in years, and has the feel of a team still riding an upward arc. Arrelious Benn did what most great freshmen do, which is drop jaws on a sporadic, haphazard basis (remember that awesome run-and-catch against Penn State? It was Benn's only touchdown catch of the regular season). As a sophomore, he should be the best receiver in the Big Ten, assuming coaches continue to whittle Juice Williams into a competent trigger man. Benn's five-star counterpart on defense is Martez Wilson, another scout's dream who moves from defensive end to J Leman's position at middle linebacker; corner Vontae Davis returns off an all-conference season, and defensive line is crowded enough that sack leader Will Davis is still fighting for his position on the depth chart this spring.
Enjoy It While It Lasts. The football gods, they give, but also they take away.You can try to make some half-baked argument about who exactly represented the "heart and soul" of last year's team, or something, or you can look at the reality in black-and-white: Rashard Mendenhall set school records for yards and touchdowns in a season, was the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and provided the only glimmers of hope in the Rose Bowl; Leman led the team in tackles the last two years, was all-Big Ten on both occasions and carried the spirit of embattled Chief Illiniwek in his indomitable enthusiasm and unflinching locks (aka, The Father, Son and Holy Mullet). Including the Mighty J, all four of the top tacklers the last two years are graduating.
Success, like sanity, is a fragile state.
- - -
Approximate Staying Power. Historically, another nine-win season is a bad bet. A lot is riding on the continued development of Williams and Benn, which is a pretty good bet, but it was fundamentally Mendenhall and Leman that made their respective units tick. Outsiders can't judge something like locker room impact, but Leman as a senior seemed like a classic "glue" guy; in more tangible terms, neither his nor Mendenhall's production will be matched by any individual. Then again, it would also be a surprise if a team with so much young talent regressed out of a bowl game. This is a key transition year: if the Illini aren't a serious threat to wind up in the Rose Bowl again this fall, they can be in 2009, when Williams, Benn, Wilson, Davis et al will be on their farewell tour and expectations should be high regardless. How high - like top ten, potentially - depends on whether the offense shows more balance and finds some approximation of Mendenhall, even if it takes a committee, and whether the new guys on defense make the scouts look smart.
One thing you can't say: however ugly it was when they got there, the Illini didn't climb to the Rose Bowl on the bones of nobodies. Three years ago, in Zook's first year, Illinois lost its last nine games by an average of 30 points, never coming closer than 17 to winning any Big Ten game. Last year, a lot of those same players knocked off Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State, played Missouri into the closing seconds with Williams out of the lineup and had opportunities to win close games against Michigan and Iowa. Not that such margins can be tossed aside, but all of a sudden they were roughly three touchdowns from a perfect regular season. So this team should be able - or should at least have the confidence to be able - to line up against anyone. In that regard, they're not going anywhere.
- - -
Update [2008-4-27 15:6:56 by SMQ]: An Illinois board is scratching its head over the line about Martez Wilson moving to middle linebacker. To follow up, Wilson is listed as the starting middle linebacker on this depth chart, by Rivals, and as a linebacker (no depth chart) in the school's official Spring guide.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Southern Cal
by SMQ on Apr 9, 2008 11:36 AM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Southern Cal...
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="185"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 11-2 (7-2 Pac Ten, Champion)
2003-07: 59-6 (37-5 Pac Ten)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 1 • 1 • 1 • 2 • 8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>14 (6 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Rey Maualuga appeared to draw his strength in equal parts from his flowing Polynesian mane and his many-vowelled surname, before his MVP performance in the Rose Bowl sans the kinky locks made clear the source of his hard-hitting dominance: it’s gotta be the name. It’s gotta be something, because the kid brings the pain:
<object height="130" width="185">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/owXgLCbw5YU&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="130" width="185"></object>
The guy’s like the Tebow of defense: I don’t know of any better player in the country.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>And Now, Song Girls In Bikinis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
Thank you. (If that’s not your thing, or, like, you expected something substantive, just be glad it wasn’t Will Ferrell in a bikini. You have been warned).
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. You won't read much about anything else through August, but as I pointed out last week, USC quarterbacks these days tend to be USC quarterbacks: be it Mark Sanchez, Mitch Mustain, even Aaron Corp, the new passer is assuredly in the same big-armed, pocket-bound mold of blue chip predecessors Palmer, Leinart and Booty and will generate comparable numbers in essentially the same play-action-based system. A commenter in the afore-linked post noted that most absurdly premature lists for the Trophy Which Shall Not Be Named include an entry for Sanchez/Mustain despite neither having finished a season as a starter here or anywhere else, or even clearly established he's the Most Outstanding Player at his own position on his own team. But, you know, yeah, both guys were the legends of their recruiting class and the winner of the spring competition is automatically in that mix. Only the name is really changing. That isn't the case in front of him, though, and if the golden child du jour is so much as second team all-conference material (to who? Rudy Carpenter? Jake Locker?), expect the blame to go straight to the very young offensive line. Sam Baker started all but two games the last four years; Drew Radovich and Chilo Rachal started every game the last two. With center Matt Spanos, that's well over 100 career starts lumbering gingerly out the door. It's still a very talented line, of course, and the good thing about the spate of injuries that helped temporarily stall the offense last year is that the new guys are not completely green: Butch Lewis, Kris O'Dowd, Zack Heberer and Charles Brown combined for nine starts in the shuffle, and are presumably the better for it. Given the relative midseason lull with various combinations of young `uns in the lineup, they should hope so.
What's the Same. The last two years were the lowest scoring since Pete Carroll's first year, 2001, but were still top five, championship, Rose Bowl seasons because the defense got back to blowing the doors off. This was especially true last year, when the SC D finished in the top six nationally across the board and lived in opposing backfields. In Lawrence Jackson and Sedrick Ellis alone, the Trojans are losing 19 sacks and 30 tackles for loss; add to that Keith Rivers, leading tackler the last two years. Ellis and Rivers will go in the top ten of the draft, Jackson in the second round.
Like I wrote two years ago: cry me a fuckin' river, Fauntleroy. The leftovers include three more first-rounders in 2009, Rey Maualuga, Fili Moala and Brian Cushing (since we're only talking front seven here, that doesn't even include likely early entrant Taylor Mays, a 6-4, 225-pound Greek god of a safety), and end Everson Griffen, who managed to get overlooked by Joe McKnight in last year's recruiting hype but racked up six sacks off the bench, made every all-freshman team, spent the first part of the spring scarring new freshmen for life and will make any forward-looking all-America team this summer.
If you're waiting for the other shoe to drop, uh, stop - even the new starters up front (Griffen, Kaluka Maiava at outside linebacker and Averell Spicer at tackle) have played often and project to the NFL. You can probably say the same about the rest of the two deep in two years. The only offenses that have really given SC any kind of trouble the last few seasons are of the spread variety, run with athletic quarterbacks - Texas in the `06 Rose Bowl, Oregon and Illinois last year, if you want to stretch it (the Illini did have 445 yards; their problems in the end were mainly defensive). The only possibility of seeing a top-end talent like Vince Young or Dennis Dixon running from a shotgun on the upcoming schedule is against Ohio State, if Terrelle Pryor defies all reasonable expectations, wins the starting job by the second game of his career and is ready to break out in the Coliseum. Even if that could happen, Jim Tressel won't let it - premature exposure to a group like this is liable to cause deep, lasting psychological damage, if not actual physical trauma.
Doom Arrives With A Limp. Go back to the 2006 preview linked a couple paragraphs back and you'll come across the notion of "the next Inevitable USC Tailback(s) of Doom," which, two years later, hasn't materialized. Not that there haven't been enough candidates, and it's uncertain to what extent the cyclical ebbs and flows of tight competition and nagging injuries have prevented any single member of the rotation of Chauncey Washington, Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, C.J. Gable, Emmanuel Moody, Desmond Reed, Herschel Dennis, Allen Bradford, Broderick Green and Marc Tyler from breaking out. In some of those cases, it's clear enough - Dennis and Reed were basically never healthy enough to get on the field with any consistency in their star-crossed careers; Moody was hurt after a promising start as a freshman and decided he'd be better off trying to steal carries from Tim Tebow at Florida. Gable got a few early carries but missed the rest of last season with a suspiciously vague ab injury; Tyler came into the mix off a broken leg and redshirted along with Green. Bradford played in every game but virtually never saw the ball after the first two.
UCLA vs. Everson Griffen: At one point, this looked like a mismatch.
- - -
The rotation last year wound up an inconsistent mix of Washington, Johnson and McKnight, and though Washington led the team in carries and yards for the second straight season, his first team status always seemed somewhat de facto. In two years, he only broke 100 yards four times and was held to a pedestrian four yards per carry or less about half the time. The younger guys have been more exciting - Moody averaged a full yard more every time he touched the ball in 2006, a margin nearly matched last year by McKnight, and Johnson finished almost two yards better than Washington's `07 average - but not nearly as consistent. Washington had more carries than the top three youngsters combined. With the Old Man in Dreds now out of the mix, the best guess based on the way last year played out is Johnson as pacesetter and McKnight and Gable, presumably healthy now, as versatile, situational daggers, the Reggie Bushes to Johnson's LenDale White, even if it's Bradford (6-0, 230) who best fits the punishing White role physically. To be clear, though, that's not a fair comparison. No single player in this galaxy of would-be stars has shined brightly enough to deserve that kind of expectation, much less two of them.
It's not an endorsement, but Johnson struck me last year as the most explosive and effective of the group; this is probably only because his best efforts (100-plus yards on sparse carries against Nebraska, Washington and Illinois) happened to be the SC games I watched most closely. In reality, the only really unique talent is probably McKnight's, but his particular skills, like Bush's, aren't suited to endure an every-down pounding between the tackles, especially behind an iffy line. He's probably going to play good bit of receiver. So it's a much smaller committee than last year, down from ten to six, but nevertheless, committee it is.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Read Scott Wolf's quick-hitting, wide-ranging, pull-no-punches Trojan blog for the L.A. Daily News, and you'll not only learn that Pete Carroll's favorite TV show is HBO's bizarre, kaput "John From Cincinnati." You'll also get a pretty clear sense of the daily turbulence of the quarterback derby. First, Mustain was locked in with the second team in last weekend's scrimmage. Tuesday, Wolf graded Mitch and Mark as equals, at three Euros apiece. But by Tuesday night, he was saying turn out the lights on this "competition":
For two weeks I resisted the constant temptation to say the quarterback competition was a charade although anyone who reads this blog probably figured out what direction the ``derby'' was taking. But it seems foolish to act like anything is up for grabs right now as Mark Sanchez clearly is the No. 1 quarterback. Here's some facts for those following this race:
Sanchez got six series with the first team during Sunday's scrimmage. Mitch Mustain got two.
Sanchez practiced exclusively with the first team Tuesday. Mustain split time with Aaron Corp with the second team.
Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian said he did not anticipate giving Mustain more time with the first team during USC's next scrimmage on Saturday.
We will wait for the official word from Pete Carroll, of course. When (not who) he announces the starter is the only mystery left right now.
- - -
So that's that, it seems. If the outcome that clear cut, the critically acclaimed drama "Mustain: The College Years" is destined to end in anticlimax - Mitch has one season after Sanchez's eligibility runs out in 2010, but with Corp and current high school junior Matt Barkley and whichever other teenage quarterbacking idol comes aboard in the next two years breathing down his formerly blue chip neck, he's just playing out his run for the draft scouts. ... on You Tube. Pete Carroll miked up for last year's Rose Bowl, on meth, as usual:
<object height="315" width="375">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/899DAhXfoJ0&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="315" width="375"></object></p>The closing (and surprisingly profanity-free) fracas is the best, though be sure not to miss the inappropriate personal contact by the potbelied equipment manager a little past the two-minute mark.
See Also: Combine "USC Greek Week" and "Playboy U," and the result is the most disappointing video of all time. ... A USC grad sings the Oregon fight song. ... And the end of last year's loss to Stanford. If you were wondering what happened there.
Best-Case. Obviously. Not to overstate the point, but USC has played 30 games against ranked teams since 2002 and it's record (26-4) is not the most impressive point of the portfolio. That would be the average margin of victory in those games, which is just shy of 19 points. Six straight BCS bowls is one thing; five blowouts is something else. The Trojans will be the unanimous Pac Ten favorite, again, and on paper only face one serious challenge, from Ohio State on Sept. 13. That's a home game SC will probably be favored to win, and the line may not creep below double digits again the rest of the year. This is easily one of the handful of elite mythical championship contenders.
Worst-Case. Three times in two years is a trend - every week is a major upset alert. With so much uncertainty on offense, this is not the kind of opening stretch that lends itself to any false starts, growing pains, etc.: at Virginia, Ohio State, at Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona State. Outside of OSU, that's not daunting on the "traditional power" scale, but all five were at least nine-game winners last year, which must set a new standard for the first month-and-a-half of any schedule. And that's not even the type of game SC has found itself losing; three of four shocking defeats the last two years have been at the hands of the aforementioned double-digit dogs. By hook or crook, Washington, Arizona and Cal all played the Trojans within a touchdown last year, and Notre Dame will be bouncing back with some as-yet-unknown level of vengeance. There's the whole Stanford thing last year, and Oregon State and UCLA before it. You can't take for granted any breathers here. A sputtering, one-dimensional or turnover-prone offense could find itself on the wrong end of another pair of upsets; if they're to the wrong teams, it could cost them the conference. It has to happen sometime - if Dennis Dixon doesn't take the Ducks' fortunes down with his bum knee later in the season, last year's loss to Oregon was the streak-breaker.
Non-Binding Forecast. The air of inevitability wafting around last preseason evaporated with the Stanford loss, but there's no reason other than hubris SC shouldn't start the season number one again, or that it should be expected to lose any particular game. If the reader is thinking, "Yeah, but you know they're gonna lose one..." which one? I'm the guy who wondered if we were seing the beginning of the end of the Troy dynasty last October, but it definitely did not look that way once the team was healthy again a few weeks later. In terms of personnel and consistent high end dominance, if not consistency, this is still the gold standard, so much so that talking about the schedule (other than Ohio State) is really beside the point. If they beat the Buckeyes, the only thing standing between the Trojans and the mythical championship game is themselves. You have heard this before. But I don't know what else to say.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="185"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 11-2 (7-2 Pac Ten, Champion)
2003-07: 59-6 (37-5 Pac Ten)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 1 • 1 • 1 • 2 • 8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>14 (6 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Rey Maualuga appeared to draw his strength in equal parts from his flowing Polynesian mane and his many-vowelled surname, before his MVP performance in the Rose Bowl sans the kinky locks made clear the source of his hard-hitting dominance: it’s gotta be the name. It’s gotta be something, because the kid brings the pain:
<object height="130" width="185">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/owXgLCbw5YU&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="130" width="185"></object>
The guy’s like the Tebow of defense: I don’t know of any better player in the country.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>And Now, Song Girls In Bikinis</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(238, 234, 202) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. You won't read much about anything else through August, but as I pointed out last week, USC quarterbacks these days tend to be USC quarterbacks: be it Mark Sanchez, Mitch Mustain, even Aaron Corp, the new passer is assuredly in the same big-armed, pocket-bound mold of blue chip predecessors Palmer, Leinart and Booty and will generate comparable numbers in essentially the same play-action-based system. A commenter in the afore-linked post noted that most absurdly premature lists for the Trophy Which Shall Not Be Named include an entry for Sanchez/Mustain despite neither having finished a season as a starter here or anywhere else, or even clearly established he's the Most Outstanding Player at his own position on his own team. But, you know, yeah, both guys were the legends of their recruiting class and the winner of the spring competition is automatically in that mix. Only the name is really changing. That isn't the case in front of him, though, and if the golden child du jour is so much as second team all-conference material (to who? Rudy Carpenter? Jake Locker?), expect the blame to go straight to the very young offensive line. Sam Baker started all but two games the last four years; Drew Radovich and Chilo Rachal started every game the last two. With center Matt Spanos, that's well over 100 career starts lumbering gingerly out the door. It's still a very talented line, of course, and the good thing about the spate of injuries that helped temporarily stall the offense last year is that the new guys are not completely green: Butch Lewis, Kris O'Dowd, Zack Heberer and Charles Brown combined for nine starts in the shuffle, and are presumably the better for it. Given the relative midseason lull with various combinations of young `uns in the lineup, they should hope so.
What's the Same. The last two years were the lowest scoring since Pete Carroll's first year, 2001, but were still top five, championship, Rose Bowl seasons because the defense got back to blowing the doors off. This was especially true last year, when the SC D finished in the top six nationally across the board and lived in opposing backfields. In Lawrence Jackson and Sedrick Ellis alone, the Trojans are losing 19 sacks and 30 tackles for loss; add to that Keith Rivers, leading tackler the last two years. Ellis and Rivers will go in the top ten of the draft, Jackson in the second round.
Like I wrote two years ago: cry me a fuckin' river, Fauntleroy. The leftovers include three more first-rounders in 2009, Rey Maualuga, Fili Moala and Brian Cushing (since we're only talking front seven here, that doesn't even include likely early entrant Taylor Mays, a 6-4, 225-pound Greek god of a safety), and end Everson Griffen, who managed to get overlooked by Joe McKnight in last year's recruiting hype but racked up six sacks off the bench, made every all-freshman team, spent the first part of the spring scarring new freshmen for life and will make any forward-looking all-America team this summer.
If you're waiting for the other shoe to drop, uh, stop - even the new starters up front (Griffen, Kaluka Maiava at outside linebacker and Averell Spicer at tackle) have played often and project to the NFL. You can probably say the same about the rest of the two deep in two years. The only offenses that have really given SC any kind of trouble the last few seasons are of the spread variety, run with athletic quarterbacks - Texas in the `06 Rose Bowl, Oregon and Illinois last year, if you want to stretch it (the Illini did have 445 yards; their problems in the end were mainly defensive). The only possibility of seeing a top-end talent like Vince Young or Dennis Dixon running from a shotgun on the upcoming schedule is against Ohio State, if Terrelle Pryor defies all reasonable expectations, wins the starting job by the second game of his career and is ready to break out in the Coliseum. Even if that could happen, Jim Tressel won't let it - premature exposure to a group like this is liable to cause deep, lasting psychological damage, if not actual physical trauma.
Doom Arrives With A Limp. Go back to the 2006 preview linked a couple paragraphs back and you'll come across the notion of "the next Inevitable USC Tailback(s) of Doom," which, two years later, hasn't materialized. Not that there haven't been enough candidates, and it's uncertain to what extent the cyclical ebbs and flows of tight competition and nagging injuries have prevented any single member of the rotation of Chauncey Washington, Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, C.J. Gable, Emmanuel Moody, Desmond Reed, Herschel Dennis, Allen Bradford, Broderick Green and Marc Tyler from breaking out. In some of those cases, it's clear enough - Dennis and Reed were basically never healthy enough to get on the field with any consistency in their star-crossed careers; Moody was hurt after a promising start as a freshman and decided he'd be better off trying to steal carries from Tim Tebow at Florida. Gable got a few early carries but missed the rest of last season with a suspiciously vague ab injury; Tyler came into the mix off a broken leg and redshirted along with Green. Bradford played in every game but virtually never saw the ball after the first two.
UCLA vs. Everson Griffen: At one point, this looked like a mismatch.
- - -
The rotation last year wound up an inconsistent mix of Washington, Johnson and McKnight, and though Washington led the team in carries and yards for the second straight season, his first team status always seemed somewhat de facto. In two years, he only broke 100 yards four times and was held to a pedestrian four yards per carry or less about half the time. The younger guys have been more exciting - Moody averaged a full yard more every time he touched the ball in 2006, a margin nearly matched last year by McKnight, and Johnson finished almost two yards better than Washington's `07 average - but not nearly as consistent. Washington had more carries than the top three youngsters combined. With the Old Man in Dreds now out of the mix, the best guess based on the way last year played out is Johnson as pacesetter and McKnight and Gable, presumably healthy now, as versatile, situational daggers, the Reggie Bushes to Johnson's LenDale White, even if it's Bradford (6-0, 230) who best fits the punishing White role physically. To be clear, though, that's not a fair comparison. No single player in this galaxy of would-be stars has shined brightly enough to deserve that kind of expectation, much less two of them.
It's not an endorsement, but Johnson struck me last year as the most explosive and effective of the group; this is probably only because his best efforts (100-plus yards on sparse carries against Nebraska, Washington and Illinois) happened to be the SC games I watched most closely. In reality, the only really unique talent is probably McKnight's, but his particular skills, like Bush's, aren't suited to endure an every-down pounding between the tackles, especially behind an iffy line. He's probably going to play good bit of receiver. So it's a much smaller committee than last year, down from ten to six, but nevertheless, committee it is.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Read Scott Wolf's quick-hitting, wide-ranging, pull-no-punches Trojan blog for the L.A. Daily News, and you'll not only learn that Pete Carroll's favorite TV show is HBO's bizarre, kaput "John From Cincinnati." You'll also get a pretty clear sense of the daily turbulence of the quarterback derby. First, Mustain was locked in with the second team in last weekend's scrimmage. Tuesday, Wolf graded Mitch and Mark as equals, at three Euros apiece. But by Tuesday night, he was saying turn out the lights on this "competition":
For two weeks I resisted the constant temptation to say the quarterback competition was a charade although anyone who reads this blog probably figured out what direction the ``derby'' was taking. But it seems foolish to act like anything is up for grabs right now as Mark Sanchez clearly is the No. 1 quarterback. Here's some facts for those following this race:
Sanchez got six series with the first team during Sunday's scrimmage. Mitch Mustain got two.
Sanchez practiced exclusively with the first team Tuesday. Mustain split time with Aaron Corp with the second team.
Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian said he did not anticipate giving Mustain more time with the first team during USC's next scrimmage on Saturday.
We will wait for the official word from Pete Carroll, of course. When (not who) he announces the starter is the only mystery left right now.
- - -
So that's that, it seems. If the outcome that clear cut, the critically acclaimed drama "Mustain: The College Years" is destined to end in anticlimax - Mitch has one season after Sanchez's eligibility runs out in 2010, but with Corp and current high school junior Matt Barkley and whichever other teenage quarterbacking idol comes aboard in the next two years breathing down his formerly blue chip neck, he's just playing out his run for the draft scouts. ... on You Tube. Pete Carroll miked up for last year's Rose Bowl, on meth, as usual:
<object height="315" width="375">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/899DAhXfoJ0&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="315" width="375"></object></p>The closing (and surprisingly profanity-free) fracas is the best, though be sure not to miss the inappropriate personal contact by the potbelied equipment manager a little past the two-minute mark.
See Also: Combine "USC Greek Week" and "Playboy U," and the result is the most disappointing video of all time. ... A USC grad sings the Oregon fight song. ... And the end of last year's loss to Stanford. If you were wondering what happened there.
Best-Case. Obviously. Not to overstate the point, but USC has played 30 games against ranked teams since 2002 and it's record (26-4) is not the most impressive point of the portfolio. That would be the average margin of victory in those games, which is just shy of 19 points. Six straight BCS bowls is one thing; five blowouts is something else. The Trojans will be the unanimous Pac Ten favorite, again, and on paper only face one serious challenge, from Ohio State on Sept. 13. That's a home game SC will probably be favored to win, and the line may not creep below double digits again the rest of the year. This is easily one of the handful of elite mythical championship contenders.
Worst-Case. Three times in two years is a trend - every week is a major upset alert. With so much uncertainty on offense, this is not the kind of opening stretch that lends itself to any false starts, growing pains, etc.: at Virginia, Ohio State, at Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona State. Outside of OSU, that's not daunting on the "traditional power" scale, but all five were at least nine-game winners last year, which must set a new standard for the first month-and-a-half of any schedule. And that's not even the type of game SC has found itself losing; three of four shocking defeats the last two years have been at the hands of the aforementioned double-digit dogs. By hook or crook, Washington, Arizona and Cal all played the Trojans within a touchdown last year, and Notre Dame will be bouncing back with some as-yet-unknown level of vengeance. There's the whole Stanford thing last year, and Oregon State and UCLA before it. You can't take for granted any breathers here. A sputtering, one-dimensional or turnover-prone offense could find itself on the wrong end of another pair of upsets; if they're to the wrong teams, it could cost them the conference. It has to happen sometime - if Dennis Dixon doesn't take the Ducks' fortunes down with his bum knee later in the season, last year's loss to Oregon was the streak-breaker.
Non-Binding Forecast. The air of inevitability wafting around last preseason evaporated with the Stanford loss, but there's no reason other than hubris SC shouldn't start the season number one again, or that it should be expected to lose any particular game. If the reader is thinking, "Yeah, but you know they're gonna lose one..." which one? I'm the guy who wondered if we were seing the beginning of the end of the Troy dynasty last October, but it definitely did not look that way once the team was healthy again a few weeks later. In terms of personnel and consistent high end dominance, if not consistency, this is still the gold standard, so much so that talking about the schedule (other than Ohio State) is really beside the point. If they beat the Buckeyes, the only thing standing between the Trojans and the mythical championship game is themselves. You have heard this before. But I don't know what else to say.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Kentucky
by SMQ on Apr 7, 2008 2:36 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Kentucky... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="185"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 8-5 (3-5 SEC, T-4th East)
2003-07: 25-35 (11-29 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2003-07: 45 • 67 • 36 • 54 • 57</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>13 (5 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
The all-conference teams ignored sophomore Jeremy Jarmon because of his low profile coming into the season, but a repeat performance (50 tackles, 9 sacks, 13.5 tackles for loss) will command attention. He had two multi-sack games, against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and was everywhere against Arkansas: 7 tackles, one sack, a QB hurry and two forced fumbles. Not that a repeat is likely: it looks like he’s moving down to tackle from end, where the stat sheet will only make him more obscure.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>In Case You Missed It...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
The story of 2007 in Kentucky was a, uh, blast from the past, if you will, about the the 1962 "Thin Thirty" team chopped from 88 players to 30 by Bear Bryant acolyte Charlie Bradshaw, and maybe some of the extracurricular activities of a few teammates: According to the Lexington Herald-Leader, Ragland contends that the players involved probably didn't view themselves as taking part in Yag sex. Rather, he says, they felt they were "gaming" the situation. "It was like, 'I'm getting paid for doing this? I'm putting something over on them,'" Ragland said. "Most of these guys were from rural areas and modest backgrounds. They had no real concept of homosexuality."
- - -
There was the whole game-fixing thing, too – not to mention the ruthless methods that cut the numbers down, i.e., players blindsiding teammates in the huddle on coaches’ orders during practice – but "Rock Hudson" and "Yag sex scandal" in the Bible Belt moves product. Well, to an extent: it’s #71,881 on Amazon. But sixth in books about Kentucky!
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. In yards from scrimmage alone, Rafael Little, Keenan Burton, Steve Johnson and Jacob Tamme were 60 percent of the offense each of the last two years. That's before you account for Little's and Burton's contributions in the return game or the dozen games the quartet missed since September `06; seven of those were by the vastly underappreciated Little, who led the SEC in all-purpose yards per game as a sophomore, would have led with a couple more touches to qualify as a junior and finished just behind Arkansas' dual first rounders last year. Tamme was first team all-SEC at tight end two years in a row, Johnson led the league in receiving yards as a senior and the only player in the conference who covered more cumulative yards than Burton the last two years is Darren McFadden. All four are graduating. So, now, let's talk about André Woodson. If the offense had a quarterback, it wouldn't look so bad: two adequate, experienced running backs (Tony Dixon and Derrick Locke, diminutive hero of the LSU upset) return in Little's place with Dickie Lyons, who himself has topped 1,000 all-purpose yards two straight years. With Woodson, though, everyone else seemed like just a role player piggybacking on his raw physical brilliance, junky delivery and all. Even if he had the entire arsenal of skill players back, the new quarterback - whoever that is - wouldn't have a prayer of matching Woodson's production: 71 touchdowns in two years to 18 picks, and 14 games with a completion rate over 65 percent. UK's record in those games: 11-3. When he completed fewer than 60 percent: 2-6. The SEC average last year was 57 percent. Woodson was that real, rare diamond in the rough; if there's anyone in the wings even capable of tightening that amount of slack, he's a master of secrecy.
What's the Same. The probable starting defense will feature zero seniors, but it's still experienced (eight returning starters, seven of them multi-year starters), and all in all more talented than it's been in years - the offseason focus will be on Wesley Woodyard's graduation, but the top nine tacklers behind him are back, and once fawned-over prospect Micah Johnson will at least match Woodyard's presence if he keeps his head on straight; he was suspended along with his brother last Spring but has played in all but one game in two years, so reputation may exceed reality on that front. Safety and team-oriented rapper Marcus McClinton will be back after missing most of the second half of last year.
There should be some real hope for this defense, which was almost mediocre at times under new coordinator Steve Brown after four years of oppressive woe under Mike Archer:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">UK Defense Under Rich Brooks: SEC Rank, by Category</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Rush</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff.</td> <td align="center">Total</td> <td align="center">Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">10</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> </tbody></table> So it still gave up more points than any other defense in the conference. Progress is progress: the fact they didn't finish last at everything for the third year in a row is proof this group is capable of improving. Slowly but surely.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Curtis Pulley, what! It was Pulley, you might recall, who lit Kentucky's high school ranks aflame in 2004 and was poised to save Wildcat Football from another year of André Woodson's incompetent bumbling in 2006. Ahem. Pulley spent that season bumming around at receiver as Woodson's stock soared, catching a handful of passes and flunking out of school. He withdrew the next spring and re-enrolled to redshirt last fall. He's competing this spring for the starting job with Mike Hartline and Will Fidler.
Hmmm. Throws a little better on the run. We can fix that.
- - -
Most coaches, working a tantilizing athlete into a position previously occupied by a mostly immobile, pocket-bound slinger, might consider some version of the spread, at least in limited, package form, to take advantage of his strengths. You know what Rich Brooks thinks of the spread? He'll tell you exactly what he thinks of your "spread": it's bullshit, is what he thinks: ...one program that has decided not to copycat the spread is Kentucky. Even though its most experienced quarterback (Curtis Pulley) is known more for his running than his passing, UK Coach Rich Brooks and offensive coordinator/head-coach-in-waiting Joker Phillips both said UK will stick with the multiple, pro-style offense that they've employed since Brooks took over in 2003. "I guess you could look at a guy like Curtis and assume we're going to the spread," Phillips said. "But you'd be making a wrong assumption."
Brooks' first two quarterbacks at UK, Jared Lorenzen and Shane Boyd, made NFL rosters. And the recently departed Andre Woodson will get drafted later this month.
So Brooks figures, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
"One of the things that has the attention of recruits is what we've been able to do with our offense," Brooks said. "So we're going to keep doing what we've been doing."
- - -
Read his line again, and you can hear coach-in-waiting Phillips' teeth gritting from your desk: "You would assume we would go to the spread, with the best spread quarterback this cracker state will produce in the next 25 years. Look at him. You would assume that, wouldn't you, since his particular skills are so perfectly suited to the system tearing up our league? You might think we'd make a simple decision so obvious a deadbrained beat reporter can figure it out. You'd be making the wrong assumption." Just keep telling yourself, Joker: 2010, 2010, 2010. If Brooks turns up at his sturdy breakfast table with his tongue out of his mouth between now and then, get his Muselix to the lab and make sure Phillips doesn't leave the state. Kentucky on You Tube. Rapelling in the UK library:
<object height="315" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ochhLnAYehE&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="315" width="365"></object></p>You send your kids to college hoping they become something, and they exceed your wildest dreams. Actually, this sort of thing seems to be something of a tradition at WT Young. Watch those in order.
See Also: Somebody took the time to put together a clip of the entire 2007 Wildcat roster, but not to spell all the names right? Braxton Kelley - or "Braxten Kelley" - appreciates the effort, we're sure. ... Someone named Mr. Fab loves Kentucky and its, uh, fight song. ... And Steve Johnson may be a good receiver, etc., but he could use some tips from Marcus McClinton when it comes to UK-themed freestyle.
Best-Case. The defense holds its own and Pulley, finally entrenched, is everything his recruiting hype held him to be three years ago. If UK can score enough get by Louisville again in the opener, it has a clear route to a 4-0 start, and shouldn't be a substantial underdog (if it's an underdog at all) in any of the first three SEC games, against Alabama, South Carolina and Arkansas. It's probably pie-in-the-sky to expect the Cats to win all three of those and head into Florida 7-0 - I can't prove it, but judging from annual records, it's probably been at least 58 years since Kentucky started 7-0, if it ever has - but they can conceivably make it to 6-1 before things get rockier. UK hasn't even had a winning record in-conference since 1977, so breaking even there and hitting eight wins for the third straight year (again, hasn't happened since the Bryant era, 1949-51), would be a pretty substantial effort.
Worst-Case. With so much exiting on offense, no consistent running game to take pressure off of a potentially unsettled quarterback situation and a perpetually hopeless defense, no SEC win is guaranteed. If UK can't beat Louisville in the opener, it will have to win three games in the league just to be eligible for a postseason return, assuming it doesn't get sniped by Norfolk State, Middle Tennesee or Temple in September. Which three? Vanderbilt...and...? The most forgiving game beyond Vandy is Mississippi State, which thumped the Wildcats last year in Lexington. At worst, if the offense returns to its bottom-dwelling days, the team falls into a rut and loses all sense of momentum, it could be as bad as 3-9 with no SEC wins - they're not far removed from that type of season, and if it happens that way, they're probably also not far removed from the formal inauguration of the Joker administration.
Non-binding Forecast. Until there's reason to be even a little confident about the quarterback, the worst-case seems more likely than the best. The defense is not likely to improve past mediocrity, and even if it holds its own for a change, the offense is dependent on a cast of lightly-regarded contributors with no experience in starring roles. And we are still talking about Kentucky, a traditional bottom-dweller in terms of talent bidding adieu to its undisputed MVP - and the runners-up, in Little and Woodyard - of the decade. It would be one of Brooks' best coaching jobs to win three conference games and break even overall.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 8-5 (3-5 SEC, T-4th East)
2003-07: 25-35 (11-29 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2003-07: 45 • 67 • 36 • 54 • 57</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>13 (5 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(112, 138, 186) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>In Case You Missed It...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
- - -
There was the whole game-fixing thing, too – not to mention the ruthless methods that cut the numbers down, i.e., players blindsiding teammates in the huddle on coaches’ orders during practice – but "Rock Hudson" and "Yag sex scandal" in the Bible Belt moves product. Well, to an extent: it’s #71,881 on Amazon. But sixth in books about Kentucky!
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. In yards from scrimmage alone, Rafael Little, Keenan Burton, Steve Johnson and Jacob Tamme were 60 percent of the offense each of the last two years. That's before you account for Little's and Burton's contributions in the return game or the dozen games the quartet missed since September `06; seven of those were by the vastly underappreciated Little, who led the SEC in all-purpose yards per game as a sophomore, would have led with a couple more touches to qualify as a junior and finished just behind Arkansas' dual first rounders last year. Tamme was first team all-SEC at tight end two years in a row, Johnson led the league in receiving yards as a senior and the only player in the conference who covered more cumulative yards than Burton the last two years is Darren McFadden. All four are graduating. So, now, let's talk about André Woodson. If the offense had a quarterback, it wouldn't look so bad: two adequate, experienced running backs (Tony Dixon and Derrick Locke, diminutive hero of the LSU upset) return in Little's place with Dickie Lyons, who himself has topped 1,000 all-purpose yards two straight years. With Woodson, though, everyone else seemed like just a role player piggybacking on his raw physical brilliance, junky delivery and all. Even if he had the entire arsenal of skill players back, the new quarterback - whoever that is - wouldn't have a prayer of matching Woodson's production: 71 touchdowns in two years to 18 picks, and 14 games with a completion rate over 65 percent. UK's record in those games: 11-3. When he completed fewer than 60 percent: 2-6. The SEC average last year was 57 percent. Woodson was that real, rare diamond in the rough; if there's anyone in the wings even capable of tightening that amount of slack, he's a master of secrecy.
What's the Same. The probable starting defense will feature zero seniors, but it's still experienced (eight returning starters, seven of them multi-year starters), and all in all more talented than it's been in years - the offseason focus will be on Wesley Woodyard's graduation, but the top nine tacklers behind him are back, and once fawned-over prospect Micah Johnson will at least match Woodyard's presence if he keeps his head on straight; he was suspended along with his brother last Spring but has played in all but one game in two years, so reputation may exceed reality on that front. Safety and team-oriented rapper Marcus McClinton will be back after missing most of the second half of last year.
There should be some real hope for this defense, which was almost mediocre at times under new coordinator Steve Brown after four years of oppressive woe under Mike Archer:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">UK Defense Under Rich Brooks: SEC Rank, by Category</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Rush</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff.</td> <td align="center">Total</td> <td align="center">Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">10</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> </tbody></table> So it still gave up more points than any other defense in the conference. Progress is progress: the fact they didn't finish last at everything for the third year in a row is proof this group is capable of improving. Slowly but surely.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Curtis Pulley, what! It was Pulley, you might recall, who lit Kentucky's high school ranks aflame in 2004 and was poised to save Wildcat Football from another year of André Woodson's incompetent bumbling in 2006. Ahem. Pulley spent that season bumming around at receiver as Woodson's stock soared, catching a handful of passes and flunking out of school. He withdrew the next spring and re-enrolled to redshirt last fall. He's competing this spring for the starting job with Mike Hartline and Will Fidler.
Hmmm. Throws a little better on the run. We can fix that.
- - -
Most coaches, working a tantilizing athlete into a position previously occupied by a mostly immobile, pocket-bound slinger, might consider some version of the spread, at least in limited, package form, to take advantage of his strengths. You know what Rich Brooks thinks of the spread? He'll tell you exactly what he thinks of your "spread": it's bullshit, is what he thinks: ...one program that has decided not to copycat the spread is Kentucky. Even though its most experienced quarterback (Curtis Pulley) is known more for his running than his passing, UK Coach Rich Brooks and offensive coordinator/head-coach-in-waiting Joker Phillips both said UK will stick with the multiple, pro-style offense that they've employed since Brooks took over in 2003. "I guess you could look at a guy like Curtis and assume we're going to the spread," Phillips said. "But you'd be making a wrong assumption."
Brooks' first two quarterbacks at UK, Jared Lorenzen and Shane Boyd, made NFL rosters. And the recently departed Andre Woodson will get drafted later this month.
So Brooks figures, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
"One of the things that has the attention of recruits is what we've been able to do with our offense," Brooks said. "So we're going to keep doing what we've been doing."
- - -
Read his line again, and you can hear coach-in-waiting Phillips' teeth gritting from your desk: "You would assume we would go to the spread, with the best spread quarterback this cracker state will produce in the next 25 years. Look at him. You would assume that, wouldn't you, since his particular skills are so perfectly suited to the system tearing up our league? You might think we'd make a simple decision so obvious a deadbrained beat reporter can figure it out. You'd be making the wrong assumption." Just keep telling yourself, Joker: 2010, 2010, 2010. If Brooks turns up at his sturdy breakfast table with his tongue out of his mouth between now and then, get his Muselix to the lab and make sure Phillips doesn't leave the state. Kentucky on You Tube. Rapelling in the UK library:
<object height="315" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ochhLnAYehE&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="315" width="365"></object></p>You send your kids to college hoping they become something, and they exceed your wildest dreams. Actually, this sort of thing seems to be something of a tradition at WT Young. Watch those in order.
See Also: Somebody took the time to put together a clip of the entire 2007 Wildcat roster, but not to spell all the names right? Braxton Kelley - or "Braxten Kelley" - appreciates the effort, we're sure. ... Someone named Mr. Fab loves Kentucky and its, uh, fight song. ... And Steve Johnson may be a good receiver, etc., but he could use some tips from Marcus McClinton when it comes to UK-themed freestyle.
Best-Case. The defense holds its own and Pulley, finally entrenched, is everything his recruiting hype held him to be three years ago. If UK can score enough get by Louisville again in the opener, it has a clear route to a 4-0 start, and shouldn't be a substantial underdog (if it's an underdog at all) in any of the first three SEC games, against Alabama, South Carolina and Arkansas. It's probably pie-in-the-sky to expect the Cats to win all three of those and head into Florida 7-0 - I can't prove it, but judging from annual records, it's probably been at least 58 years since Kentucky started 7-0, if it ever has - but they can conceivably make it to 6-1 before things get rockier. UK hasn't even had a winning record in-conference since 1977, so breaking even there and hitting eight wins for the third straight year (again, hasn't happened since the Bryant era, 1949-51), would be a pretty substantial effort.
Worst-Case. With so much exiting on offense, no consistent running game to take pressure off of a potentially unsettled quarterback situation and a perpetually hopeless defense, no SEC win is guaranteed. If UK can't beat Louisville in the opener, it will have to win three games in the league just to be eligible for a postseason return, assuming it doesn't get sniped by Norfolk State, Middle Tennesee or Temple in September. Which three? Vanderbilt...and...? The most forgiving game beyond Vandy is Mississippi State, which thumped the Wildcats last year in Lexington. At worst, if the offense returns to its bottom-dwelling days, the team falls into a rut and loses all sense of momentum, it could be as bad as 3-9 with no SEC wins - they're not far removed from that type of season, and if it happens that way, they're probably also not far removed from the formal inauguration of the Joker administration.
Non-binding Forecast. Until there's reason to be even a little confident about the quarterback, the worst-case seems more likely than the best. The defense is not likely to improve past mediocrity, and even if it holds its own for a change, the offense is dependent on a cast of lightly-regarded contributors with no experience in starring roles. And we are still talking about Kentucky, a traditional bottom-dweller in terms of talent bidding adieu to its undisputed MVP - and the runners-up, in Little and Woodyard - of the decade. It would be one of Brooks' best coaching jobs to win three conference games and break even overall.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Nouveau Riche: Kansas
by SMQ on Apr 4, 2008 5:53 PM EDT in News
Upstarts, Sleeping Giants and One-Hit Wonders.
- - -
The Norm. Going into last year, Kansas' winning percentage since the end of World War II was .455, worse than all but two teams (Iowa State and Kansas State) in the current Big 12 or the old Big Eight, including Baylor (.474). The Jayhawks had zero conference championships in that span, and only one ten-win season, in 1995, the year before KU joined the Big 12, revival leader Glen Mason bolted to Minnesota and the curtain rose on a solid decade of losing:
The slight upward trend since Mark Mangino's arrival in 2002 - minor bowl games in 2003 and 2005, and a .500 regular season in 2006 - was built on non-conference success, wherein the Jayhawks were 12-4 against mostly small-conference punching bags between `03 and `06, while still waiting to break even in Big 12 play for the first time. In five years, KU didn't beat a single team with a winning record in the league.
So last year was a momentous departure in every way - a school record for wins, twice as many conference wins as recorded in any of the previous eleven seasons in the league, and an across-the-board leap statistically:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Average Stat Rank Under Mangino</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Offense</td> <td align="center">Defense</td> <td align="center">Overall</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2002</td> <td align="center">94.2</td> <td align="center">102.0</td> <td align="center">97.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">32.2</td> <td align="center">80.4</td> <td align="center">60.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">84.4</td> <td align="center">40.8</td> <td align="center">60.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">87.4</td> <td align="center">28.2</td> <td align="center">61.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">44.0</td> <td align="center">73.8</td> <td align="center">61.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">13.0</td> <td align="center">16.4</td> <td align="center">13.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> • Offense/Defense: Average of Rushing, Passing, Pass Efficiency, Total, Scoring
• Overall: Average of all categories, plus Turnover Margin
- - - If Kansas partisans bought into the "once a lifetime" cliché, it's because it really was, up to now.
Get Used To It. None of last year's wins can be classified as a fluke or toss-up decided by a friendly call or bounce. The Jayhawks only took two games by less than a touchdown, a four-point win at Colorado and the three-point win in the Orange Bowl, and they led both by double digits with under four minutes to play. Their average margin of victory (26 points per game) was the highest in the country, and even when not padded with non-conference cupcakes, was the highest in Big 12 games (just shy of 19 per game). By the numbers, KU was the most balanced, impressive team in the country. And after the Orange Bowl, you can't say they didn't beat anybody.
The most likely element of that run to carry over is in the passing game, which is almost entirely intact and still in the very saavy, miniature hands of Todd Reesing, system quarterback par excellence. Four different guys last year caught 40 passes, and three are back who caught at least twenty-five. The Big 12 was especially forgiving to pass-happy offenses last year, but the short, quick-hitting system fits Reesing's surgical competence and mediocre arm too perfectly to dismiss its prolific results. Actually, it may have been in the lone loss to Missouri that the offense really showed its chops, when Reesing led four touchdown drives in the second half against a good defense that knew he had to throw his team out of a hole. By the end of the year, it was determined to get its points.
Reesing to the occasion. Damn. Sorry.
- - -
Enjoy It While It Lasts. The thing about not beating any Big 12 rivals with a winning record in the conference? Even after last year, it still holds: Texas A&M, Colorado and Oklahoma State broke even at 4-4, but the Jayhawks lost to North champ Missouri and avoided the other winners from the South, Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. In that respect alone, the coming season is hellfire to the mere brimstone (whatever that is) of 2007: Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M rotate off for the three aforementioned South winners, South Florida (a significant upgrade from Central Michigan as the toughest non-con game) hosts the back end of a home-and-home started in 2006 and in November KU visits Nebraska, where it's lost 36 straight games dating back to 1968 and where it is extremely unlikely to meet a defense that leaks like a sieve (whatever that is) under Bo Pellini. Everything you need to know resides in the fact that most people probably consider that game a toss-up, even after Nebraska finished in a tie for last place in the division, lost in Lawrence by an embarrassing 37 points, bid adieu to its starting quarterback, top receiver and virtually the entire back seven on defense and overhauled the entire coaching staff. Nebraska is Nebraska, see, and Kansas is Kansas, and Nebraska - like Oklahoma, and Texas, and now Missouri - has players. And Kansas' best players, Anthony Collins and Aqib Talib, used the Orange Bowl triumph as an early jump-off point for an NFL payday, along with the leading rusher (Brandon McAnderson), leading receiver (Marcus Henry) and an all-Big 12 defensive tackle (James McClinton). Take a quick look at the recruiting over the last five years, remembering that there is no tradition of reloading here (or plain "loading," for that matter), and try to pick out who, specifically, is likely to make the same kind of impact. The best season in school history was only good enough to land a class that ranked 40th nationally, according to Rivals, and ninth in the conference. Kansas' stars last year were improbable, and as the schedule gets exponentially tougher, history long and short suggests there will be many fewer of them on hand.
Approximate Staying Power. Prepare for maximum skepticism due to the brand, the perceived (and likely real) talent gap and, obviously, the increased level of difficulty. None of the sudden, from-nowhere teams who have struck ten-win seasons without notice have hung around for long; I'm thinking of Oregon State in 2000, Iowa in 2002, Cal in 2004, Rutgers in 2006, even Penn State off a couple dismal years in 2005. None of those teams have matched their "breakout" year since, and none faced the steep incline in opposition Kansas will.
But none of them completely faded away, either, and KU doesn't seem very prone to fall immediately back into obscurity. Assuming Missouri is the same powerhouse it was last year (the Tigers should enter the season with much higher expectations), the Jayhawks can count on at least five other games - Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, South Florida, revamped Nebraska - that project as tougher challenges than any of its regular season wins in `07. If it wins two of those and avoids the odd stumble, people will have to start buying in to the notion of Kansas as a power in the conference.
Upstarts, Sleeping Giants and One-Hit Wonders.
- - -
The Norm. Going into last year, Kansas' winning percentage since the end of World War II was .455, worse than all but two teams (Iowa State and Kansas State) in the current Big 12 or the old Big Eight, including Baylor (.474). The Jayhawks had zero conference championships in that span, and only one ten-win season, in 1995, the year before KU joined the Big 12, revival leader Glen Mason bolted to Minnesota and the curtain rose on a solid decade of losing:
The slight upward trend since Mark Mangino's arrival in 2002 - minor bowl games in 2003 and 2005, and a .500 regular season in 2006 - was built on non-conference success, wherein the Jayhawks were 12-4 against mostly small-conference punching bags between `03 and `06, while still waiting to break even in Big 12 play for the first time. In five years, KU didn't beat a single team with a winning record in the league.
So last year was a momentous departure in every way - a school record for wins, twice as many conference wins as recorded in any of the previous eleven seasons in the league, and an across-the-board leap statistically:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Average Stat Rank Under Mangino</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Offense</td> <td align="center">Defense</td> <td align="center">Overall</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2002</td> <td align="center">94.2</td> <td align="center">102.0</td> <td align="center">97.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">32.2</td> <td align="center">80.4</td> <td align="center">60.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">84.4</td> <td align="center">40.8</td> <td align="center">60.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">87.4</td> <td align="center">28.2</td> <td align="center">61.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">44.0</td> <td align="center">73.8</td> <td align="center">61.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(192, 192, 192) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">13.0</td> <td align="center">16.4</td> <td align="center">13.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> • Offense/Defense: Average of Rushing, Passing, Pass Efficiency, Total, Scoring
• Overall: Average of all categories, plus Turnover Margin
- - - If Kansas partisans bought into the "once a lifetime" cliché, it's because it really was, up to now.
Get Used To It. None of last year's wins can be classified as a fluke or toss-up decided by a friendly call or bounce. The Jayhawks only took two games by less than a touchdown, a four-point win at Colorado and the three-point win in the Orange Bowl, and they led both by double digits with under four minutes to play. Their average margin of victory (26 points per game) was the highest in the country, and even when not padded with non-conference cupcakes, was the highest in Big 12 games (just shy of 19 per game). By the numbers, KU was the most balanced, impressive team in the country. And after the Orange Bowl, you can't say they didn't beat anybody.
The most likely element of that run to carry over is in the passing game, which is almost entirely intact and still in the very saavy, miniature hands of Todd Reesing, system quarterback par excellence. Four different guys last year caught 40 passes, and three are back who caught at least twenty-five. The Big 12 was especially forgiving to pass-happy offenses last year, but the short, quick-hitting system fits Reesing's surgical competence and mediocre arm too perfectly to dismiss its prolific results. Actually, it may have been in the lone loss to Missouri that the offense really showed its chops, when Reesing led four touchdown drives in the second half against a good defense that knew he had to throw his team out of a hole. By the end of the year, it was determined to get its points.
Reesing to the occasion. Damn. Sorry.
- - -
Enjoy It While It Lasts. The thing about not beating any Big 12 rivals with a winning record in the conference? Even after last year, it still holds: Texas A&M, Colorado and Oklahoma State broke even at 4-4, but the Jayhawks lost to North champ Missouri and avoided the other winners from the South, Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. In that respect alone, the coming season is hellfire to the mere brimstone (whatever that is) of 2007: Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M rotate off for the three aforementioned South winners, South Florida (a significant upgrade from Central Michigan as the toughest non-con game) hosts the back end of a home-and-home started in 2006 and in November KU visits Nebraska, where it's lost 36 straight games dating back to 1968 and where it is extremely unlikely to meet a defense that leaks like a sieve (whatever that is) under Bo Pellini. Everything you need to know resides in the fact that most people probably consider that game a toss-up, even after Nebraska finished in a tie for last place in the division, lost in Lawrence by an embarrassing 37 points, bid adieu to its starting quarterback, top receiver and virtually the entire back seven on defense and overhauled the entire coaching staff. Nebraska is Nebraska, see, and Kansas is Kansas, and Nebraska - like Oklahoma, and Texas, and now Missouri - has players. And Kansas' best players, Anthony Collins and Aqib Talib, used the Orange Bowl triumph as an early jump-off point for an NFL payday, along with the leading rusher (Brandon McAnderson), leading receiver (Marcus Henry) and an all-Big 12 defensive tackle (James McClinton). Take a quick look at the recruiting over the last five years, remembering that there is no tradition of reloading here (or plain "loading," for that matter), and try to pick out who, specifically, is likely to make the same kind of impact. The best season in school history was only good enough to land a class that ranked 40th nationally, according to Rivals, and ninth in the conference. Kansas' stars last year were improbable, and as the schedule gets exponentially tougher, history long and short suggests there will be many fewer of them on hand.
Approximate Staying Power. Prepare for maximum skepticism due to the brand, the perceived (and likely real) talent gap and, obviously, the increased level of difficulty. None of the sudden, from-nowhere teams who have struck ten-win seasons without notice have hung around for long; I'm thinking of Oregon State in 2000, Iowa in 2002, Cal in 2004, Rutgers in 2006, even Penn State off a couple dismal years in 2005. None of those teams have matched their "breakout" year since, and none faced the steep incline in opposition Kansas will.
But none of them completely faded away, either, and KU doesn't seem very prone to fall immediately back into obscurity. Assuming Missouri is the same powerhouse it was last year (the Tigers should enter the season with much higher expectations), the Jayhawks can count on at least five other games - Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, South Florida, revamped Nebraska - that project as tougher challenges than any of its regular season wins in `07. If it wins two of those and avoids the odd stumble, people will have to start buying in to the notion of Kansas as a power in the conference.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Duke
by SMQ on Apr 3, 2008 3:31 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Duke... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="185"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 1-11 (0-8 ACC, 6th Coastal)
2003-07: 8-50 (3-37 ACC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2003-07: 70 • 46 • 56 • 78 • 65</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>15 (6 Offense, 9 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
In addition to being an alleged drunk driving, road raging, knife-carrying, gun-wielding aggravated assailant, Mike Tauiliili and his impressive string of vertical letters were freshman all-America in 2005 and third in the ACC in tackles last year. The combination of the Devils’ general failure on defense and his sketchy rep probably kept Tauiliili out of even honorable mention on the all-conference team, but nevertheless: hundred-tackle seasons don’t grow on trees.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>This Day In Duke History...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
News of the world the last time Duke won a game against another team in the ACC, on Nov. 13, 2004: • Palestinians mourn the death of Yasir Arafat.
• Madrid recovers from train bombing that killed 191 people and injured 2,000 two days earlier.
• Two days after a strong counterattack by insurgents, Army troops and tanks storm their last major stronghold in Falluja. • In a letter to three European governments, Iran promises to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
• Modesto, Calif. fertilizer salesman Scott Peterson is found guilty by a jury in Redwood City in the murder of his wife, Laci, and their unborn son.
• Rapper Russel Jones (a.k.a. Ol' Dirty Bastard) dies of a drug overdose in a recording studio in New York City.
For god’s sake, Duke, for ODB and his cherished memory, win a damn conference game.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. David Cutcliffe has a reputation as a quarterback/passing guru, one largely borne out by the numbers, though there's also no separating his success from the fortune he's had to coach Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning, Romaro Miller, Eli Manning, Brady Quinn and Erik Ainge. Since he was promoted to Tennessee offensive coordinator in 1993, the only year Cutcliffe coached a quarterback who wasn't a drop-dead recruit turned entrenched career starter was 2004. That year, Ole Miss finished 103rd in scoring offense, Ethan Flatt, Michael Spurlock and Robert Lane combined to throw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, and Cutcliffe got the boot. That was probably an overreaction on the Rebels' part - as Phil Steele notes in his annual "Baylored" section, and Ed Orgeron proved, it will probably be decades before another coach puts together six straight winning seasons in Oxford - but with no more Mannings coming down the pike, the shine was off.
Yes, coach, smile. They always start out smiling.
- - -
Still, salvaging the simpering heap of neuroses that was Ainge's career after his dreadful sophomore year under Randy Sanders is a resumé-builder in my book, and if there's one area of Duke not mired in the hopeless Dukiness of Duke, it's the passing game. In terms of yards and efficiency, it's the only aspect of the offense that didn't finish dead last or next-to-last in the offensively-challenged ACC, often even rising to the level of solid mediocrity - 428 yards and four touchdowns in a 43-point effort against Navy, 246 and three scores with no interceptions at Northwestern, 241 and two TDs with no picks against Miami, 291 and four TDs against Wake Forest, two touchdowns and no INTs at North Carolina. Thaddeus Lewis is by all appearances the first legitimate I-A quarterback at Duke since...since...media guide, help me...since...Spence Fisher (1992-95)! Fish is also the last Duke quarterback to take a snap in a bowl game, under the much-missed Fred Goldsmith. If that streak is going to end...aw, who are we kidding? That streak is not going to end. But if it's even going to come close, against all odds, it will be by Cutcliffe's Herculean handiwork with Lewis, whose efficiency last year was almost identical to Matt Ryan's, and fellow junior Eron Riley, the only Blue Devil explosive enough (20-plus yards per catch each of his first two years) to earn so much as an honorable mention on last year's all-ACC team. The only other player on the offense remotely resembling a "playmaker," steady receiver Jomar Wright, is graduating.
What's the Same. There are probably three future pros on the defense, yet its collective incompetence can't be underestimated. It be not any responsibility of thine own, young Devils; nay, the cancer dwelleth in the very walls!
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Duke Defense: ACC Rank, by Category</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Rush</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff.</td> <td align="center">Total</td> <td align="center">Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2004*</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">10</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *The ACC had 11 teams in 2004.
- - - This is where you have to be careful not to let optimistic intangibles like "change" (Cutcliffe hired defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre from the New York Jets), "experience" (there are nine returning starters) or "talent" (linebackers Mike Tauiliili and Vincent Rey and ex-four-star DT Vince Oghobaase are generally liked by scouts) become a kind of mirage obscuring the vast wasteland. When the substantial accomplishment is not finishing last - when you're giving up at least four 20-plus-yard plays every single week - the problems go much deeper than mere optimism, whatever its source.
You do, however, have to give it up for the cultural and syllabic diversity of the middle of the defense since Michael Shawn Brown changed his name to reflect his Polynesian heritage, meaning both tackles and middle linebacker will be manned by Oghobaase, Okpokowuruk, and Tauiliili, respectively.
Yes, Virginia, There Is an Offensive Line. If the passing game is not-horrible, but the offense as a whole is (man, is it: 117th in total yards, 114th in scoring, last in the ACC in both) then what does that say about the running game? All 113 Duke fans respond: what running game? We have a running game? Not really - before the 145-yard finale in the near-upset at North Carolina, Duke was averaging a little more than 56 yards per game on the ground on less than two per carry. Re'quan Boyette led the team on 36 yards per game and two touchdowns for the season; the team broke a single, lonely run longer than 20 yards all season. Three times, against Miami, Wake Forest and Clemson, the Devils had as many fumbles as rushing first downs.
Still, despite the obvious failure to run, an abundance of must-throw deficits and the concentration of skill talent in the passing game, the offense was split almost down the middle between run and pass: 376 runs (including sacks) to 383 passes. Don't expect Cutcliffe to have any of that - his offenses at Tennessee the last two years were pass-oriented (52 percent passes in 2006, 54 percent last year) even with a boss who traditionally favored the straight-ahead business and viable personnel to succeed at it. Neither exists at Duke. He won't necessarily spread the field like June Jones, Mike Leach or Hal Mumme, but the short, quick passing game Cutcliffe used to great effect with Ainge ought to be the order of the day. The line can't hold long enough to allow much else.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Spread out among 100 guys, 1,000 pounds is not an unmanagable responsibility. When the first order of the new administration to the team was to drop half a ton, it was as symbolic as anything else:
Cutcliffe said his first goal in turning around a team that has struggled to win games in recent seasons-particularly in late-game situations-is conditioning. With the team's 15-day spring practice period beginning March 19, Cutcliffe already has set weight-loss and endurance goals for his players. "We're not going to have a fat football team," Cutcliffe said. "And we're a fat football team right now."
One of the chief struggles for the Blue Devils last season was the ability to close out games. Duke was outscored 100-50 in the fourth quarter last season and lost contests against Navy and UNC in the final period...
- - -
Duke was indeed outscored in the fourth quarter, but not by nearly the margin it was beaten in the second and third quarters. The Devils did actually outscore opponents by a couple points in the first quarter, but if the subsequent dropoff can be racked up to conditioning, half a ton might not do the trick. Duke on You Tube. Actually, though you can catch the short version on YT, the extended version of the celebration following the win at Northwestern comes from some site called Revver. Having not experienced a win on campus since early 2005, the Dukies are enthusiastic and predictably rusty at the "victory" business, but there's no reason it has to end like this:
<script id="srevver39943612108243291562575" type="text/javascript" src="http://flash.revver.com/player/1.0/player.js?mediaId:399436;width:430;height:362;"> </script>
<object id="vrevver3994361210824329156681" data="http://flash.revver.com/player/1.0/player.swf?r=revver39943612108243291565267" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" height="362" width="430">
</object>
The girl on the business end of the upright is okay, according to posters, though she stands as a grave reminder: victory never comes without a price.
See Also: Just a little something about how bad Duke football is. These kids were immediately offered scholarships in 2014. ... Season tickets last year started at $84, or about $14 a game. How do Duke fans feel about those generous rates? Judging from this, they're still a ripoff.
No matter what, you can always count on at least one vote.
- - -
Best-Case. Cutcliffe has a chance for a fast start: the Devils open against I-AA James Madison, against whom they should be favored, and then face Northwestern, the only I-A team they've beaten in the last three years, and Navy, which is also breaking in a new coach and can't claim any kind of advantage in talent; the Midshipmen had to rally from behind for a three-point win at home last year. A 3-0 start is not out of the question. Beyond that, eh, two wins in ACC play would be a giant leap forward - the team hasn't won even one ACC game in George Bush's second term. The conference losing streak is 25 and counting. Five wins overall would be the most in 13 years and would be good enough to get Cutcliffe my coach of the year vote. I mean, if I had one. Worst-Case. This is a program with as many zero-win seasons as ACC wins this decade (three apiece), and has gone winless four times under three different head coaches since 1996, so the o-fer is never more than a I-AA loss away. James Madison was an FCS playoff team last year and played Appalachian State within a point; the <strike>Bulldogs</strike> Dukes [see comments-ed.] probably match up fairly well with Duke and could cast a pall over the entire season with a win in the opener, just like Richmond did when it shut the Devils out to start 2006. The earlier the holdovers start to think "Here we go again," the more likely they are to, uh, go again.
Non-Binding Forecast. There was a brief period of time a couple years ago when the Devils could steal a conference game here and there (against Georgia Tech and North Carolina in `03, against Clemson in '04), and they've been so hopeless since that just re-opening that window would be a significant achievement. Really, if Duke wins once against Northwestern, Navy and/or Vanderbilt and sneaks up on N.C. State or somebody to break the oppressive, four-year-old ACC streak, Cutcliffe should get a raise and extension. There is nothing in the last decade that suggests this team can be better than 2-10.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 1-11 (0-8 ACC, 6th Coastal)
2003-07: 8-50 (3-37 ACC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2003-07: 70 • 46 • 56 • 78 • 65</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>15 (6 Offense, 9 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>This Day In Duke History...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(203, 208, 232) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
• Madrid recovers from train bombing that killed 191 people and injured 2,000 two days earlier.
• Two days after a strong counterattack by insurgents, Army troops and tanks storm their last major stronghold in Falluja. • In a letter to three European governments, Iran promises to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
• Modesto, Calif. fertilizer salesman Scott Peterson is found guilty by a jury in Redwood City in the murder of his wife, Laci, and their unborn son.
• Rapper Russel Jones (a.k.a. Ol' Dirty Bastard) dies of a drug overdose in a recording studio in New York City.
For god’s sake, Duke, for ODB and his cherished memory, win a damn conference game.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *According to Rivals
What's Changed. David Cutcliffe has a reputation as a quarterback/passing guru, one largely borne out by the numbers, though there's also no separating his success from the fortune he's had to coach Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning, Romaro Miller, Eli Manning, Brady Quinn and Erik Ainge. Since he was promoted to Tennessee offensive coordinator in 1993, the only year Cutcliffe coached a quarterback who wasn't a drop-dead recruit turned entrenched career starter was 2004. That year, Ole Miss finished 103rd in scoring offense, Ethan Flatt, Michael Spurlock and Robert Lane combined to throw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, and Cutcliffe got the boot. That was probably an overreaction on the Rebels' part - as Phil Steele notes in his annual "Baylored" section, and Ed Orgeron proved, it will probably be decades before another coach puts together six straight winning seasons in Oxford - but with no more Mannings coming down the pike, the shine was off.
Yes, coach, smile. They always start out smiling.
- - -
Still, salvaging the simpering heap of neuroses that was Ainge's career after his dreadful sophomore year under Randy Sanders is a resumé-builder in my book, and if there's one area of Duke not mired in the hopeless Dukiness of Duke, it's the passing game. In terms of yards and efficiency, it's the only aspect of the offense that didn't finish dead last or next-to-last in the offensively-challenged ACC, often even rising to the level of solid mediocrity - 428 yards and four touchdowns in a 43-point effort against Navy, 246 and three scores with no interceptions at Northwestern, 241 and two TDs with no picks against Miami, 291 and four TDs against Wake Forest, two touchdowns and no INTs at North Carolina. Thaddeus Lewis is by all appearances the first legitimate I-A quarterback at Duke since...since...media guide, help me...since...Spence Fisher (1992-95)! Fish is also the last Duke quarterback to take a snap in a bowl game, under the much-missed Fred Goldsmith. If that streak is going to end...aw, who are we kidding? That streak is not going to end. But if it's even going to come close, against all odds, it will be by Cutcliffe's Herculean handiwork with Lewis, whose efficiency last year was almost identical to Matt Ryan's, and fellow junior Eron Riley, the only Blue Devil explosive enough (20-plus yards per catch each of his first two years) to earn so much as an honorable mention on last year's all-ACC team. The only other player on the offense remotely resembling a "playmaker," steady receiver Jomar Wright, is graduating.
What's the Same. There are probably three future pros on the defense, yet its collective incompetence can't be underestimated. It be not any responsibility of thine own, young Devils; nay, the cancer dwelleth in the very walls!
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Duke Defense: ACC Rank, by Category</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(141, 154, 222) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Rush</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff.</td> <td align="center">Total</td> <td align="center">Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2004*</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">10</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">12</td> </tr> </tbody></table> *The ACC had 11 teams in 2004.
- - - This is where you have to be careful not to let optimistic intangibles like "change" (Cutcliffe hired defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre from the New York Jets), "experience" (there are nine returning starters) or "talent" (linebackers Mike Tauiliili and Vincent Rey and ex-four-star DT Vince Oghobaase are generally liked by scouts) become a kind of mirage obscuring the vast wasteland. When the substantial accomplishment is not finishing last - when you're giving up at least four 20-plus-yard plays every single week - the problems go much deeper than mere optimism, whatever its source.
You do, however, have to give it up for the cultural and syllabic diversity of the middle of the defense since Michael Shawn Brown changed his name to reflect his Polynesian heritage, meaning both tackles and middle linebacker will be manned by Oghobaase, Okpokowuruk, and Tauiliili, respectively.
Yes, Virginia, There Is an Offensive Line. If the passing game is not-horrible, but the offense as a whole is (man, is it: 117th in total yards, 114th in scoring, last in the ACC in both) then what does that say about the running game? All 113 Duke fans respond: what running game? We have a running game? Not really - before the 145-yard finale in the near-upset at North Carolina, Duke was averaging a little more than 56 yards per game on the ground on less than two per carry. Re'quan Boyette led the team on 36 yards per game and two touchdowns for the season; the team broke a single, lonely run longer than 20 yards all season. Three times, against Miami, Wake Forest and Clemson, the Devils had as many fumbles as rushing first downs.
Still, despite the obvious failure to run, an abundance of must-throw deficits and the concentration of skill talent in the passing game, the offense was split almost down the middle between run and pass: 376 runs (including sacks) to 383 passes. Don't expect Cutcliffe to have any of that - his offenses at Tennessee the last two years were pass-oriented (52 percent passes in 2006, 54 percent last year) even with a boss who traditionally favored the straight-ahead business and viable personnel to succeed at it. Neither exists at Duke. He won't necessarily spread the field like June Jones, Mike Leach or Hal Mumme, but the short, quick passing game Cutcliffe used to great effect with Ainge ought to be the order of the day. The line can't hold long enough to allow much else.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Spread out among 100 guys, 1,000 pounds is not an unmanagable responsibility. When the first order of the new administration to the team was to drop half a ton, it was as symbolic as anything else:
Cutcliffe said his first goal in turning around a team that has struggled to win games in recent seasons-particularly in late-game situations-is conditioning. With the team's 15-day spring practice period beginning March 19, Cutcliffe already has set weight-loss and endurance goals for his players. "We're not going to have a fat football team," Cutcliffe said. "And we're a fat football team right now."
One of the chief struggles for the Blue Devils last season was the ability to close out games. Duke was outscored 100-50 in the fourth quarter last season and lost contests against Navy and UNC in the final period...
- - -
Duke was indeed outscored in the fourth quarter, but not by nearly the margin it was beaten in the second and third quarters. The Devils did actually outscore opponents by a couple points in the first quarter, but if the subsequent dropoff can be racked up to conditioning, half a ton might not do the trick. Duke on You Tube. Actually, though you can catch the short version on YT, the extended version of the celebration following the win at Northwestern comes from some site called Revver. Having not experienced a win on campus since early 2005, the Dukies are enthusiastic and predictably rusty at the "victory" business, but there's no reason it has to end like this:
<script id="srevver39943612108243291562575" type="text/javascript" src="http://flash.revver.com/player/1.0/player.js?mediaId:399436;width:430;height:362;"> </script>
<object id="vrevver3994361210824329156681" data="http://flash.revver.com/player/1.0/player.swf?r=revver39943612108243291565267" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" height="362" width="430">
</object>
The girl on the business end of the upright is okay, according to posters, though she stands as a grave reminder: victory never comes without a price.
See Also: Just a little something about how bad Duke football is. These kids were immediately offered scholarships in 2014. ... Season tickets last year started at $84, or about $14 a game. How do Duke fans feel about those generous rates? Judging from this, they're still a ripoff.
No matter what, you can always count on at least one vote.
- - -
Best-Case. Cutcliffe has a chance for a fast start: the Devils open against I-AA James Madison, against whom they should be favored, and then face Northwestern, the only I-A team they've beaten in the last three years, and Navy, which is also breaking in a new coach and can't claim any kind of advantage in talent; the Midshipmen had to rally from behind for a three-point win at home last year. A 3-0 start is not out of the question. Beyond that, eh, two wins in ACC play would be a giant leap forward - the team hasn't won even one ACC game in George Bush's second term. The conference losing streak is 25 and counting. Five wins overall would be the most in 13 years and would be good enough to get Cutcliffe my coach of the year vote. I mean, if I had one. Worst-Case. This is a program with as many zero-win seasons as ACC wins this decade (three apiece), and has gone winless four times under three different head coaches since 1996, so the o-fer is never more than a I-AA loss away. James Madison was an FCS playoff team last year and played Appalachian State within a point; the <strike>Bulldogs</strike> Dukes [see comments-ed.] probably match up fairly well with Duke and could cast a pall over the entire season with a win in the opener, just like Richmond did when it shut the Devils out to start 2006. The earlier the holdovers start to think "Here we go again," the more likely they are to, uh, go again.
Non-Binding Forecast. There was a brief period of time a couple years ago when the Devils could steal a conference game here and there (against Georgia Tech and North Carolina in `03, against Clemson in '04), and they've been so hopeless since that just re-opening that window would be a significant achievement. Really, if Duke wins once against Northwestern, Navy and/or Vanderbilt and sneaks up on N.C. State or somebody to break the oppressive, four-year-old ACC streak, Cutcliffe should get a raise and extension. There is nothing in the last decade that suggests this team can be better than 2-10.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Up and Up: Stanford
by SMQ on Mar 27, 2008 4:21 PM EDT in News
Teams on the rise sooner, not later.
- - -
Where They've Been. Stanford was a laughingstock in 2006, a statistical disaster outscored by three touchdowns on average (the offense was held to a touchdown or less five times) and lucky to finish with the '1' in 1-11. Jim Harbaugh rode in behind disgraced Walt Harris on a solid burst of enthusiasm and alma mater-baiting and ratcheted the win total from one to four in his first year, but it was still generally a mess: the 3-6 finish in the Pac Ten only tied for eighth place, and the offense again was in the bottom 20 in the country (100th or worse) in rushing, total yards, scoring, passing efficiency and sacks allowed. The defense was somewhere between eighth and tenth in the Pac Ten in every major category. Whatever measure you want to use, the fact is that the only BCS conference team with a worse overall record over the last two years is Duke.
Yes we can!
- - -
Catalysts. Usually, teams that fit any model of "up and coming" are stocked with young talent on the verge of breaking out, which is why this feature in the case of North Carolina and Pittsburgh included a section on those teams' "youth movements" - highly-touted freshmen and sophomores who have taken their licks and are ready to mature into winners.
That's not the case here. By comparison, this team is old: sixteen returning starters, not including special teams, all but one of them a junior or senior-to-be. The bulk of the lineup is still be drawn from the 2004 and 2005 recruiting classes under Walt Harris, which have been underwhelming to say the least.
As overmatched as the Cardinal have seemed, though, if you look closely, the cupboard is not exactly bare. Using databases from Rivals and Scout to judge players coming into school, and NFL Draft Scout to judge their potential coming out, Stanford obviously has the goods to compete:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Player Rank, By Position</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Pos.</td> <td align="center">Player</td> <td align="center">'08 Class</td> <td align="center">Rivals</td> <td align="center">Scout</td> <td align="center">NFL Draft Scout</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">FS</td> <td align="right">Bo McNally</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">? (**)</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">ILB</td> <td align="right">Clinton Snyder</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">23 (***)</td> <td align="center">60 (***)</td> <td align="center">3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">QB</td> <td align="right">Andrew Luck</td> <td align="center">Fr</td> <td align="center">4 (****)</td> <td align="center">4 (*****)</td> <td align="center">6</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">ILB</td> <td align="right">Pat Maynor</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">DE</td> <td align="right">Pannell Egboh</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TE</td> <td align="right">Konrad Reuland</td> <td align="center">rSo</td> <td align="center">3 (****)</td> <td align="center">2 (*****)</td> <td align="center">8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">DT</td> <td align="right">Ekom Udofia</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">7 (****)</td> <td align="center">10 (****)</td> <td align="center">9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">OT</td> <td align="right">Chris Marinelli</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">46 (***)</td> <td align="center">NR (***)</td> <td align="center">9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">CB</td> <td align="right">Wopamo Osaisai</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">76 (**)</td> <td align="center">14</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">OG</td> <td align="right">Alex Fletcher</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">3 (****)</td> <td align="center">2 (*****)</td> <td align="center">15</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">OT</td> <td align="right">Allen Smith</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">14 (****)</td> <td align="center">19 (****)</td> <td align="center">16</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">DT</td> <td align="right">James McGillicuddy</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">21 (****)</td> <td align="center">38 (***)</td> <td align="center">41</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">DE</td> <td align="right">Levirt Griffin</td> <td align="center">Jr</td> <td align="center">27 (***)</td> <td align="center">12 (****)</td> <td align="center">45</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TE</td> <td align="right">Matt Kopa</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">7 (****)</td> <td align="center">50 (***)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">ILB</td> <td align="right">Will Powers</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">6 (****)</td> <td align="center">22 (****)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">DL</td> <td align="right">Erik Lorig</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">7 (****)</td> <td align="center">8 (****)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">TE</td> <td align="right">James Dray</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">13 (***)</td> <td align="center">17 (****)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> </tbody></table> This doesn't qualify as "loaded" or anything, but it's hardly ninth place talent. There are 18 players here who either a) were ranked among the top 20 incoming players at their position out of high school (what Phil Steele would call a "VHT") or b) have played well enough so far to draw a favorable eye from pro scouts. The top dozen players on the list according to Draft Scout (Bo McNally through Allen Smith) are all currently projected as fifth-rounders at worst when their time comes. Sixteen of the above were recruited under Harris and are hitting the make-or-break portion of their careers, a category that will make up this year's entire starting front seven on defense and three-fifths of the offensive line.
The problem is that, of those sixteen, only three - Ekom Udofia (not to be confused with less-heralded, outgoing Udeme Udofia), Alex Fletcher and Allen Smith - fit into both categories. On the school's last official depth chart in November, only six were even listed as starters. Norse god Konrad Reuland is a Notre Dame transfer circa junior college and Andrew Luck will be a true freshman just hoping to compete for the quarterback job; neither has played a down for the Cardinal, and their high pro projection for now is still based solely on potential. Their predecessors in that category have not fared very well: Kopa, Powers, Lorig, Griffin and Dray are still around and all saw extensive action last year, but have not remotely lived up to their recruiting hype. Fletcher has been the most consistently drooled-over player by scouts at both levels, but he's also anchored the weakest unit on the team, a line responsible for allowing more sacks and accumulating fewer yards rushing the last two years than any other team in the country.
That's bad in the sense that upperclass talent rarely experiences some kind of epiphany in the last year or two. Significant leaps are typically made by second and third-year guys just entering the lineup. On the other hand, there must be plenty of optimism because of the number of pieces that were missing last year. The running game was a disaster at least in part because the effort to keep running backs healthy was a disaster: Toby Gerhart (a VHT out of high school according to Phil Steele, who ranked him PS#16, though only a three-star prospect by other sources) only played in one game, racking up 140 yards on 12 carries against San Jose State; Anthony Kimble had two 100-yard games in the first half of the season but only played in one of the last six games. On the line, Allen Smith was hurt against Oregon, missed the last two-and-a-half months and created a huge hole during the final nine games. You can actually see what happened after Smith left the lineup:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Stanford Offense With/Without OT Allen Smith</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Yards</td> <td align="center">Points</td> <td align="center">Yds./Carry</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Before Smith Injury</td> <td align="center">435.3</td> <td align="center">28.3</td> <td align="center">4.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">After Smith Injury</td> <td align="center">284.9</td> <td align="center">16.7</td> <td align="center">2.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Two of the three games he played were against UCLA and Oregon (the third against San Jose State), so strength of schedule is not a factor in the drop. The vagabond status of the quarterback spot after an injury to departed starter T.C. Ostrander might be. But no doubt after the way the offense started last year it's anxious for the chance to go at full strength.
Surprising Wins, Close Losses, and Other Circumstantial Momentum. The earth-shaking USC upset is not a panacea for progress for several reasons: the Trojans still dominated the game aside from turnovers by a gimp-handed quarterback; no performance by either team the rest of the season suggested the result could be duplicated; and Stanford still has no realistic hope of competing on a level with USC. None whatsoever. The win was one of the feel-good stories of the year and was still sending aftershocks at the mythical championship process well into December, but it wasn't a sign of anything sustainable for the Cardinal in the long term - they were 1-3 going into the game, and they were 2-5 the rest of the season.
The best argument that Stanford could have been better than its record indicated isn't the shocker it could never hope to repeat, but the close losses it might have reasonably turned. See: a blown 31-17 lead against TCU, which scored three touchdowns in 15 minutes in the third and fourth quarter to win in Palo Alto in October, or a series of missed opportunities against Notre Dame in November, notably two straight dropped touchdown passes on third and fourth down plays that could have tied the game with less than a minute to go. Those two wins could have left the Cardinal at 6-6, still three games below .500 in the conference but drawing a lot more attention for one of the biggest single-season turnarounds anywhere.
Don't get too carried away, though - two of the Cardinal's wins were by one point (over USC and over Arizona two weeks later), which demonstrates how close the team was to 2-10 on the other end. No, the result that best portends some kind of turnaround was ending the season by upsetting Cal, even as wounded and as poorly as the Bears were playing at that point, to avoid another last place finish. That gave Stanford two wins over the middle-of-the-pack teams (along with Arizona) it's trying to compete with in the short term. There's no fluke in that.
Where They're Going. My guess is that nobody will pick Stanford to challenge for a bowl game this year because of its schedule: there is one "guaranteed" win (San Jose State), and ending the postseason drought would require the Cardinal to win an additional five of the following six of the "toss-up" variety: Oregon State, at TCU, at Washington, at Notre Dame, Arizona, Washington State. Because those games are seven of the first nine on this fall's schedule, there will be no quiet breakthrough - in order to have a realistic shot at a bowl, Stanford will probably have to go into the closing stretch against Oregon, USC and Cal already sitting at at least 6-3. People will probably notice that.
You'd be a fool if you predicted the Cardinal had a better than even chance of achieving that. Given its 2-7 record against those teams the last two years, the odds probably don't come close to even. But if there's a time to demonstrate the team is on course to becoming a solid, middle-of-the-pack competitor again, it must be now. The best players are closing in on graduation and the window is closing fast on Harbaugh's high-energy honeymoon.
Teams on the rise sooner, not later.
- - -
Where They've Been. Stanford was a laughingstock in 2006, a statistical disaster outscored by three touchdowns on average (the offense was held to a touchdown or less five times) and lucky to finish with the '1' in 1-11. Jim Harbaugh rode in behind disgraced Walt Harris on a solid burst of enthusiasm and alma mater-baiting and ratcheted the win total from one to four in his first year, but it was still generally a mess: the 3-6 finish in the Pac Ten only tied for eighth place, and the offense again was in the bottom 20 in the country (100th or worse) in rushing, total yards, scoring, passing efficiency and sacks allowed. The defense was somewhere between eighth and tenth in the Pac Ten in every major category. Whatever measure you want to use, the fact is that the only BCS conference team with a worse overall record over the last two years is Duke.
Yes we can!
- - -
Catalysts. Usually, teams that fit any model of "up and coming" are stocked with young talent on the verge of breaking out, which is why this feature in the case of North Carolina and Pittsburgh included a section on those teams' "youth movements" - highly-touted freshmen and sophomores who have taken their licks and are ready to mature into winners.
That's not the case here. By comparison, this team is old: sixteen returning starters, not including special teams, all but one of them a junior or senior-to-be. The bulk of the lineup is still be drawn from the 2004 and 2005 recruiting classes under Walt Harris, which have been underwhelming to say the least.
As overmatched as the Cardinal have seemed, though, if you look closely, the cupboard is not exactly bare. Using databases from Rivals and Scout to judge players coming into school, and NFL Draft Scout to judge their potential coming out, Stanford obviously has the goods to compete:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Player Rank, By Position</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Pos.</td> <td align="center">Player</td> <td align="center">'08 Class</td> <td align="center">Rivals</td> <td align="center">Scout</td> <td align="center">NFL Draft Scout</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">FS</td> <td align="right">Bo McNally</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">? (**)</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">ILB</td> <td align="right">Clinton Snyder</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">23 (***)</td> <td align="center">60 (***)</td> <td align="center">3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">QB</td> <td align="right">Andrew Luck</td> <td align="center">Fr</td> <td align="center">4 (****)</td> <td align="center">4 (*****)</td> <td align="center">6</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">ILB</td> <td align="right">Pat Maynor</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">DE</td> <td align="right">Pannell Egboh</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">7</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TE</td> <td align="right">Konrad Reuland</td> <td align="center">rSo</td> <td align="center">3 (****)</td> <td align="center">2 (*****)</td> <td align="center">8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">DT</td> <td align="right">Ekom Udofia</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">7 (****)</td> <td align="center">10 (****)</td> <td align="center">9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">OT</td> <td align="right">Chris Marinelli</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">46 (***)</td> <td align="center">NR (***)</td> <td align="center">9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">CB</td> <td align="right">Wopamo Osaisai</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">NR (**)</td> <td align="center">76 (**)</td> <td align="center">14</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">OG</td> <td align="right">Alex Fletcher</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">3 (****)</td> <td align="center">2 (*****)</td> <td align="center">15</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">OT</td> <td align="right">Allen Smith</td> <td align="center">rSr</td> <td align="center">14 (****)</td> <td align="center">19 (****)</td> <td align="center">16</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">DT</td> <td align="right">James McGillicuddy</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">21 (****)</td> <td align="center">38 (***)</td> <td align="center">41</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">DE</td> <td align="right">Levirt Griffin</td> <td align="center">Jr</td> <td align="center">27 (***)</td> <td align="center">12 (****)</td> <td align="center">45</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TE</td> <td align="right">Matt Kopa</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">7 (****)</td> <td align="center">50 (***)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">ILB</td> <td align="right">Will Powers</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">6 (****)</td> <td align="center">22 (****)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">DL</td> <td align="right">Erik Lorig</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">7 (****)</td> <td align="center">8 (****)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">TE</td> <td align="right">James Dray</td> <td align="center">rJr</td> <td align="center">13 (***)</td> <td align="center">17 (****)</td> <td align="center">-</td> </tr> </tbody></table> This doesn't qualify as "loaded" or anything, but it's hardly ninth place talent. There are 18 players here who either a) were ranked among the top 20 incoming players at their position out of high school (what Phil Steele would call a "VHT") or b) have played well enough so far to draw a favorable eye from pro scouts. The top dozen players on the list according to Draft Scout (Bo McNally through Allen Smith) are all currently projected as fifth-rounders at worst when their time comes. Sixteen of the above were recruited under Harris and are hitting the make-or-break portion of their careers, a category that will make up this year's entire starting front seven on defense and three-fifths of the offensive line.
The problem is that, of those sixteen, only three - Ekom Udofia (not to be confused with less-heralded, outgoing Udeme Udofia), Alex Fletcher and Allen Smith - fit into both categories. On the school's last official depth chart in November, only six were even listed as starters. Norse god Konrad Reuland is a Notre Dame transfer circa junior college and Andrew Luck will be a true freshman just hoping to compete for the quarterback job; neither has played a down for the Cardinal, and their high pro projection for now is still based solely on potential. Their predecessors in that category have not fared very well: Kopa, Powers, Lorig, Griffin and Dray are still around and all saw extensive action last year, but have not remotely lived up to their recruiting hype. Fletcher has been the most consistently drooled-over player by scouts at both levels, but he's also anchored the weakest unit on the team, a line responsible for allowing more sacks and accumulating fewer yards rushing the last two years than any other team in the country.
That's bad in the sense that upperclass talent rarely experiences some kind of epiphany in the last year or two. Significant leaps are typically made by second and third-year guys just entering the lineup. On the other hand, there must be plenty of optimism because of the number of pieces that were missing last year. The running game was a disaster at least in part because the effort to keep running backs healthy was a disaster: Toby Gerhart (a VHT out of high school according to Phil Steele, who ranked him PS#16, though only a three-star prospect by other sources) only played in one game, racking up 140 yards on 12 carries against San Jose State; Anthony Kimble had two 100-yard games in the first half of the season but only played in one of the last six games. On the line, Allen Smith was hurt against Oregon, missed the last two-and-a-half months and created a huge hole during the final nine games. You can actually see what happened after Smith left the lineup:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Stanford Offense With/Without OT Allen Smith</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(164, 74, 74) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Yards</td> <td align="center">Points</td> <td align="center">Yds./Carry</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Before Smith Injury</td> <td align="center">435.3</td> <td align="center">28.3</td> <td align="center">4.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">After Smith Injury</td> <td align="center">284.9</td> <td align="center">16.7</td> <td align="center">2.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Two of the three games he played were against UCLA and Oregon (the third against San Jose State), so strength of schedule is not a factor in the drop. The vagabond status of the quarterback spot after an injury to departed starter T.C. Ostrander might be. But no doubt after the way the offense started last year it's anxious for the chance to go at full strength.
Surprising Wins, Close Losses, and Other Circumstantial Momentum. The earth-shaking USC upset is not a panacea for progress for several reasons: the Trojans still dominated the game aside from turnovers by a gimp-handed quarterback; no performance by either team the rest of the season suggested the result could be duplicated; and Stanford still has no realistic hope of competing on a level with USC. None whatsoever. The win was one of the feel-good stories of the year and was still sending aftershocks at the mythical championship process well into December, but it wasn't a sign of anything sustainable for the Cardinal in the long term - they were 1-3 going into the game, and they were 2-5 the rest of the season.
The best argument that Stanford could have been better than its record indicated isn't the shocker it could never hope to repeat, but the close losses it might have reasonably turned. See: a blown 31-17 lead against TCU, which scored three touchdowns in 15 minutes in the third and fourth quarter to win in Palo Alto in October, or a series of missed opportunities against Notre Dame in November, notably two straight dropped touchdown passes on third and fourth down plays that could have tied the game with less than a minute to go. Those two wins could have left the Cardinal at 6-6, still three games below .500 in the conference but drawing a lot more attention for one of the biggest single-season turnarounds anywhere.
Don't get too carried away, though - two of the Cardinal's wins were by one point (over USC and over Arizona two weeks later), which demonstrates how close the team was to 2-10 on the other end. No, the result that best portends some kind of turnaround was ending the season by upsetting Cal, even as wounded and as poorly as the Bears were playing at that point, to avoid another last place finish. That gave Stanford two wins over the middle-of-the-pack teams (along with Arizona) it's trying to compete with in the short term. There's no fluke in that.
Where They're Going. My guess is that nobody will pick Stanford to challenge for a bowl game this year because of its schedule: there is one "guaranteed" win (San Jose State), and ending the postseason drought would require the Cardinal to win an additional five of the following six of the "toss-up" variety: Oregon State, at TCU, at Washington, at Notre Dame, Arizona, Washington State. Because those games are seven of the first nine on this fall's schedule, there will be no quiet breakthrough - in order to have a realistic shot at a bowl, Stanford will probably have to go into the closing stretch against Oregon, USC and Cal already sitting at at least 6-3. People will probably notice that.
You'd be a fool if you predicted the Cardinal had a better than even chance of achieving that. Given its 2-7 record against those teams the last two years, the odds probably don't come close to even. But if there's a time to demonstrate the team is on course to becoming a solid, middle-of-the-pack competitor again, it must be now. The best players are closing in on graduation and the window is closing fast on Harbaugh's high-energy honeymoon.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Washington State
by SMQ on Mar 25, 2008 5:29 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
The least you should know about Washington State... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="180"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 5-7 (3-6 Pac 10, T-8th)
2003-07: 30-29 (17-25 Pac 10)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 25 • 52 • 46 • 62 • 87</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>13 (6 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
Brandon Gibson is the first Cougar in many moons to seriously consider jumping a year early to the NFL, though he was only the most explosive of four of them last year with more than 35 catches. He’s also the only one returning, certain to simultaneously command more attention from defenses while handling more possession receiver-type responsibilities now that Michael Bumpus, Jed Collins and Charles Dillon (159 catches in '07) are out of the picture. If Gibson averages 17.6 per catch again under those circumstances, he’s worth the pick.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>You Know You’re a Cougar If...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>I didn’t think West Coast folks got up early enough to watch Gameday, but it turns out no school represents on the pre-game circuit like Wazzou. Not that Gameday has ever actually been to Wazzou, but as they say: if you can’t bring the show to Pullman, take Pullman to the show. Thanks to the deranged loyalty first exhibited by alum Al Sorenson, the "Ol’ Crimson" flag has somehow flown at every Gameday location since 2003:
<object height="125" width="185">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WOP1wH6w9U4&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="125" width="185"></object>
Look for the flag this year, then snub your nose at the "tradition," cuz once everybody knows about it, it’s, like, cliché or something.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. Unlike deposed Nice Guy Bill Doba, Paul Wulff is an intense man, an intense ex-lineman intensely forged by intense bouts of intensity including playing days after an appendectomy and, uh, losing his mother at the age of 12, probably at the hands of his father, and later his first wife, to brain cancer. That really is intense. Also intense: Wulff's passing schemes at Eastern Washington, where the Eagles were consistently one of the highest-flying teams in I-AA under his watch. At 33, he took over a middling, balanced EWU offense with nothing much going for it in 2000; in 2001, the Eagles led the nation in total and scoring offense, and have finished in the top ten in I-AA in both passing yards and passing efficiency four times in six years since. EWU made three playoff appearances in 26 years from 1978-2003, and three in four years from 2004-07. So goodbye, Big Sky, hello, Pac Ten.
Wulff comes out of Dennis Erickson's innovative one-back system in the late eighties (he was WSU's starting center from 1987-89) and with his tag-team coordinator Paul Sturdy fills the Cougars' market for a quarterback guru after three-and-a-half years of Alex Brink, he of the eternally conflicted legacy - Brink broke all the career records set by Drew Bledsoe, Ryan Leaf and Jason Gesser, but never guided the team to bowl game; he was second in the conference in total offense in 2005 and 2006 and first last year, but threw double digit interceptions all three seasons and was always mediocre in terms of efficiency. The Cougars led the Pac Ten in passing yards and were second in total offense last year, but eighth in scoring. Right down to the end, Brink was an enigma: he ended his career with a near-perfect, 399-yard, five-touchdown rally to beat Washington in the Apple Cup, exactly one week after throwing six interceptions in a home beatdown at the hands of Oregon State. His tombstone should read: "Alex Brink: Hot or Cold, Win or Lose, He Got His Yards." Which is not to say they won't miss him.
Wulff: Actually Freddie Mercury, only smart for football instead of soaring harmony and dudes.
- - -
What's the Same. The overall strength of the linebackers probably depends on whether you include sometimes-end Andy Mattingly, the most productive pass rusher on the defense, but either way, you can't say they haven't paid their dues. In more ways than one, actually - Cory Evans, Greg Trent and Kendrick Dunn are all seniors with a couple years starting experience and, along with Mattingly, some fairly prolific tackle totals, yet also presided over the worst scoring defense in the Pac Ten last year. This is what happens when you face five ranked teams, and four of them score 40-plus. In three years, the Cougars' best national finish in total defense is eighty-first, so unless incoming coordinator Jody Sears has something up his sleeve that didn't show up on the stat sheet at Eastern Washington, more experience in this case probably just means more pain. Welcome to the Club. The pass-happy approach Wulff cultivated at Eastern Washington couldn't be more fitting here, at the place that pioneered and has most consistently defined the spread-friendly West Coast stereotype. The Cougars have finished in the top 25 in passing yards six years out of seven and produced an almost unbroken line of either record-breaking or NFL-bound passers: Jack Thompson, Mark Rypien, Timm Rosenbach, Bledsoe, Leaf, Gesser, Brink. Gary Rogers doesn't have enough time to join that group - he's a fifth-year senior, and some kind of gamer if he's been on the bench for four years hiding top-end talent - but he does have the Bledsoe/Leaf/Brink size (6-7, 235), and if tradition and/or his new coach's track record is any indication, Rogers will be fine. The last one-shot, fifth-year senior here, Matt Kegel, led the team to a ten-win season and Holiday Bowl win in 2003 with fairly yawn-worthy numbers for this system. Although, to be fair, he also benefitted from the last presentable Cougar defense, which Rogers almost certainly will not.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Rogers is hardly a lock for the starting job - he's getting a majority of the snaps in the first practices, but also getting some heat from a crowded field and adjusting to a no-huddle, spread-option-ish philosophy that would seem better suited to his smaller, presumably quicker challengers, allegedly headed by redshirt freshman Marshall Lobbestael. At least the prospect of a little option after decades of pocket-bound slinging has the Wazzu Scout site buzzing with nostalgia, even if "the spirit of Washington State's greatest option quarterbacks" was only manifest for a few plays of an early, helmets-only spring practice that had to be moved indoors due to lightning. That's okay - burn on, ghost of Ricky Turner. Burn bright.
The unveiling of some version of a "no huddle" has become a rite of Spring practice, yet almost no offense actually runs a real no huddle in the fashion of the Buffalo Bills or Indianapolis Colts. If they don't huddle, they're doing the annoying "check with me" routine at the line, which is neither up tempo nor spontaneous in the vein of the old K-Gun. An incorporation of the spread option, especially for a team that's been fairly anemic running the ball most of this decade, is the more fundamental shift.
Washington State on You Tube. I've posted this before, but it's one of the real gems of YouTube-ery, in my opinon - footage of the then-Washington State Agriculture College Warriors hamming it up (well, Coach Dietz, at least) at the 1916 Rose Bowl, the first since the game discontinued after a blowout in 1902:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/k1VP4H3chgg&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>Ninety-two years on, WSU is still waiting on its second Rose Bowl win.
See Also: Washington State girls react to 2 Girls, 1 Cup in the Northside Dining Center. ... The world's longest beer bong. ... There is no excuse for a school outside of the SEC to pioneer the moving swimming pool. ... And the band played on.
Best-Case. Never count out the as-yet-unknonw influence of a young, up-and-coming coach, but unless Wulff is really some kind of brilliant mind, recent history sets some pretty firm limits on the Cougars' success in-conference, which tops out around four wins. Assuming it can hit that mark - with par-for-the-course efforts against Stanford, Arizona and Washington and an upset against UCLA, Oregon State or Cal, it's attainable - bowl eligibility will hinge on winning three out of four games outside of the league. Baylor and Portland State are gimmes; bookends Oklahoma State and Hawaii, in Honolulu, might well be the determining factors in breaking the five-year postseason drought. Ideally, WSU can win both; the most exciting vision, actually, is for the Cougars to come out gunning offensively against Oklahoma State, barrell through the Cowboys and Cal en route to a 4-0 start, and still be sitting at .500 after a brutal October (consecutive weeks against Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State and USC aren't promising, even thinking optimistically). The way the schedule plays, hitting win number seven in the islands after Thanksgiving would be a realistic and substantial step forward.
Mattingly: Irrelevantly good.
- - -
Worst-Case. Stumble in the opener, and the Cougars could be sitting at 2-6 and virtually out of bowl contention entering November, where a demoralized team could easily continue a dark descent. Assuming it won't be bad enough to drop nine straight after I-AA cupcake Portland State, another generous defensive effort and failure to click in the new offense could knock the bar as low as 3-10. Non-Binding Forecast. The more things change... The Cougars were predictable under Doba, if nothing else: winners when expected, losers when expected - aside from upsetting Oregon in 2006 and immediately giving it back in a surprising loss to Arizona, Wazzu has been almost right down the line as a favorite and underdog over the last four years. With about four "swing" games, that gives State a window of somewhere between three and six wins, not enough in a 13-game schedule to break the bowl slide, and certainly not enough to break even in the conference, where it's probably the least talented team overall (this doesn't say much for Doba's recruiting, either). This is not a dire rebuilding job, but this fall will probably feel like one: much as there is potential for excitement out of the offense, the best thing that can happen to the Cougars is a solid upset (over Cal, UCLA or Arizona State, maybe), general improvement from the beginning of the year to the end, a strong closing stretch against Washington and Hawaii and a sense of momentum entering 2009. I wouldn't predict better than 6-7.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 5-7 (3-6 Pac 10, T-8th)
2003-07: 30-29 (17-25 Pac 10)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 25 • 52 • 46 • 62 • 87</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>13 (6 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 130, 130) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>You Know You’re a Cougar If...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(227, 205, 205) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>I didn’t think West Coast folks got up early enough to watch Gameday, but it turns out no school represents on the pre-game circuit like Wazzou. Not that Gameday has ever actually been to Wazzou, but as they say: if you can’t bring the show to Pullman, take Pullman to the show. Thanks to the deranged loyalty first exhibited by alum Al Sorenson, the "Ol’ Crimson" flag has somehow flown at every Gameday location since 2003:
<object height="125" width="185">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WOP1wH6w9U4&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="125" width="185"></object>
Look for the flag this year, then snub your nose at the "tradition," cuz once everybody knows about it, it’s, like, cliché or something.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. Unlike deposed Nice Guy Bill Doba, Paul Wulff is an intense man, an intense ex-lineman intensely forged by intense bouts of intensity including playing days after an appendectomy and, uh, losing his mother at the age of 12, probably at the hands of his father, and later his first wife, to brain cancer. That really is intense. Also intense: Wulff's passing schemes at Eastern Washington, where the Eagles were consistently one of the highest-flying teams in I-AA under his watch. At 33, he took over a middling, balanced EWU offense with nothing much going for it in 2000; in 2001, the Eagles led the nation in total and scoring offense, and have finished in the top ten in I-AA in both passing yards and passing efficiency four times in six years since. EWU made three playoff appearances in 26 years from 1978-2003, and three in four years from 2004-07. So goodbye, Big Sky, hello, Pac Ten.
Wulff comes out of Dennis Erickson's innovative one-back system in the late eighties (he was WSU's starting center from 1987-89) and with his tag-team coordinator Paul Sturdy fills the Cougars' market for a quarterback guru after three-and-a-half years of Alex Brink, he of the eternally conflicted legacy - Brink broke all the career records set by Drew Bledsoe, Ryan Leaf and Jason Gesser, but never guided the team to bowl game; he was second in the conference in total offense in 2005 and 2006 and first last year, but threw double digit interceptions all three seasons and was always mediocre in terms of efficiency. The Cougars led the Pac Ten in passing yards and were second in total offense last year, but eighth in scoring. Right down to the end, Brink was an enigma: he ended his career with a near-perfect, 399-yard, five-touchdown rally to beat Washington in the Apple Cup, exactly one week after throwing six interceptions in a home beatdown at the hands of Oregon State. His tombstone should read: "Alex Brink: Hot or Cold, Win or Lose, He Got His Yards." Which is not to say they won't miss him.
Wulff: Actually Freddie Mercury, only smart for football instead of soaring harmony and dudes.
- - -
What's the Same. The overall strength of the linebackers probably depends on whether you include sometimes-end Andy Mattingly, the most productive pass rusher on the defense, but either way, you can't say they haven't paid their dues. In more ways than one, actually - Cory Evans, Greg Trent and Kendrick Dunn are all seniors with a couple years starting experience and, along with Mattingly, some fairly prolific tackle totals, yet also presided over the worst scoring defense in the Pac Ten last year. This is what happens when you face five ranked teams, and four of them score 40-plus. In three years, the Cougars' best national finish in total defense is eighty-first, so unless incoming coordinator Jody Sears has something up his sleeve that didn't show up on the stat sheet at Eastern Washington, more experience in this case probably just means more pain. Welcome to the Club. The pass-happy approach Wulff cultivated at Eastern Washington couldn't be more fitting here, at the place that pioneered and has most consistently defined the spread-friendly West Coast stereotype. The Cougars have finished in the top 25 in passing yards six years out of seven and produced an almost unbroken line of either record-breaking or NFL-bound passers: Jack Thompson, Mark Rypien, Timm Rosenbach, Bledsoe, Leaf, Gesser, Brink. Gary Rogers doesn't have enough time to join that group - he's a fifth-year senior, and some kind of gamer if he's been on the bench for four years hiding top-end talent - but he does have the Bledsoe/Leaf/Brink size (6-7, 235), and if tradition and/or his new coach's track record is any indication, Rogers will be fine. The last one-shot, fifth-year senior here, Matt Kegel, led the team to a ten-win season and Holiday Bowl win in 2003 with fairly yawn-worthy numbers for this system. Although, to be fair, he also benefitted from the last presentable Cougar defense, which Rogers almost certainly will not.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Rogers is hardly a lock for the starting job - he's getting a majority of the snaps in the first practices, but also getting some heat from a crowded field and adjusting to a no-huddle, spread-option-ish philosophy that would seem better suited to his smaller, presumably quicker challengers, allegedly headed by redshirt freshman Marshall Lobbestael. At least the prospect of a little option after decades of pocket-bound slinging has the Wazzu Scout site buzzing with nostalgia, even if "the spirit of Washington State's greatest option quarterbacks" was only manifest for a few plays of an early, helmets-only spring practice that had to be moved indoors due to lightning. That's okay - burn on, ghost of Ricky Turner. Burn bright.
The unveiling of some version of a "no huddle" has become a rite of Spring practice, yet almost no offense actually runs a real no huddle in the fashion of the Buffalo Bills or Indianapolis Colts. If they don't huddle, they're doing the annoying "check with me" routine at the line, which is neither up tempo nor spontaneous in the vein of the old K-Gun. An incorporation of the spread option, especially for a team that's been fairly anemic running the ball most of this decade, is the more fundamental shift.
Washington State on You Tube. I've posted this before, but it's one of the real gems of YouTube-ery, in my opinon - footage of the then-Washington State Agriculture College Warriors hamming it up (well, Coach Dietz, at least) at the 1916 Rose Bowl, the first since the game discontinued after a blowout in 1902:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/k1VP4H3chgg&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>Ninety-two years on, WSU is still waiting on its second Rose Bowl win.
See Also: Washington State girls react to 2 Girls, 1 Cup in the Northside Dining Center. ... The world's longest beer bong. ... There is no excuse for a school outside of the SEC to pioneer the moving swimming pool. ... And the band played on.
Best-Case. Never count out the as-yet-unknonw influence of a young, up-and-coming coach, but unless Wulff is really some kind of brilliant mind, recent history sets some pretty firm limits on the Cougars' success in-conference, which tops out around four wins. Assuming it can hit that mark - with par-for-the-course efforts against Stanford, Arizona and Washington and an upset against UCLA, Oregon State or Cal, it's attainable - bowl eligibility will hinge on winning three out of four games outside of the league. Baylor and Portland State are gimmes; bookends Oklahoma State and Hawaii, in Honolulu, might well be the determining factors in breaking the five-year postseason drought. Ideally, WSU can win both; the most exciting vision, actually, is for the Cougars to come out gunning offensively against Oklahoma State, barrell through the Cowboys and Cal en route to a 4-0 start, and still be sitting at .500 after a brutal October (consecutive weeks against Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State and USC aren't promising, even thinking optimistically). The way the schedule plays, hitting win number seven in the islands after Thanksgiving would be a realistic and substantial step forward.
Mattingly: Irrelevantly good.
- - -
Worst-Case. Stumble in the opener, and the Cougars could be sitting at 2-6 and virtually out of bowl contention entering November, where a demoralized team could easily continue a dark descent. Assuming it won't be bad enough to drop nine straight after I-AA cupcake Portland State, another generous defensive effort and failure to click in the new offense could knock the bar as low as 3-10. Non-Binding Forecast. The more things change... The Cougars were predictable under Doba, if nothing else: winners when expected, losers when expected - aside from upsetting Oregon in 2006 and immediately giving it back in a surprising loss to Arizona, Wazzu has been almost right down the line as a favorite and underdog over the last four years. With about four "swing" games, that gives State a window of somewhere between three and six wins, not enough in a 13-game schedule to break the bowl slide, and certainly not enough to break even in the conference, where it's probably the least talented team overall (this doesn't say much for Doba's recruiting, either). This is not a dire rebuilding job, but this fall will probably feel like one: much as there is potential for excitement out of the offense, the best thing that can happen to the Cougars is a solid upset (over Cal, UCLA or Arizona State, maybe), general improvement from the beginning of the year to the end, a strong closing stretch against Washington and Hawaii and a sense of momentum entering 2009. I wouldn't predict better than 6-7.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Kansas State
by SMQ on Mar 21, 2008 6:20 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
The least you should know about Kansas State... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="190"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 5-7 (3-5 Big 12, 4th/North)
2003-07: 32-30 (18-23 Big 12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 18 • 36 • 41 • 38 • 27</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>12 (7 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
Ian Campbell’s sack total fell last year to 4.5 from 11.5 in 2006, his tackles for loss from 17 to 11, but league coaches still thought enough of him to vote Campbell first team all-Big 12 off a sketchy overall defense for the second consecutive year. He’s the best pass rushing end in the conference by reputation, and athletic enough to project as an outside linebacker in the NFL. In other words, the kid’s, you know, bona fide. Nice hair/stubble thing going there, too.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Officially Sanctioned Absurdity</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
You can run into Willie Wildcat anywhere: at football games, at basketball games, exhorting fans to wave towels via guitar solo, gazing heroically from wheat fields, or just relaxing against the only rock in Kansas. Nowhere does he fail to terrify in his freakish mundanity. Looking like a walk-on who wandered into an animal husbadry experiment gone horribly wrong, it is Willie’s very grotesque nature that reminds us of the humanity inherent in all our anthropomorphic cats, dogs, birds of prey and snarling equines. His malformity may be met with disgust, with pity, with mockery; but never with apathy. In it, we see ourselves. And we cannot look away.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. James Johnson and great white receiving hope Jordy Nelson made up K-State's first 1,000-yard rushing/receiving combo since the 2003 conference champions and leave a dearth of offensive playmakers in their wake. Nelson and Johnson alone made up almost 60 percent of the team's yards for scrimmage last year, to say nothing of their efforts on punt and kick returns, respectively. Nelson was one of those guys who was every bit as valuable as his 122 catches (over 12 games; do the math) suggests, maybe more, as this clip indicates, for his versatility and popular, walk-on-made-good vibe:
<object height="255" width="305">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/mIUu-nLx0lw&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="255" width="305"></object></p>For those of you who didn't stick around to the end, the last frames are the most succinct possible summary of Kansas State's 2007 season: "Jordy, thanks for not sucking like everyone else did." Now it's up to "everyone else" to figure out how to replace ten catches and 155 total yards - including Johnson's average contribution, 298 yards - every time out.
What's the Same. Hope for the offense rests almost exclusively with leviathan quarterback Josh Freeman, who despite the November nosedive appeared to mature into the formidable, pocket-bound slinger his recruiting hype suggested. Freeman was wild as a freshman, barely hitting half of his passes for the season and posting an atrocious 6:15 TD:INT ratio; his passer rating at year's end was a hair over 103, barely good enough to crack the top 100 nationally. Every trend rocketed upward in Year Two: completion percentage was well over 50 percent in every game, the TD:INT ratio reversed to 18:11 (minus Freeman's two worst games, against Auburn and Kansas, it was 17:6 in the other ten) and the passer rating never dipped to its previous lows after the opening loss at Auburn. Freeman was still primarily a move-the-sticks manager, but if his rate of improvement from sophomore to junior is even a third what it was from freshman to sophomore, he'll probably deserve all-Big 12 and set pro scouts a-droolin'.
But the problem last year was not Freeman, or any part of the offense, which over six losses in the last eight games averaged 422 yards and scored 24, 39, 20, 31, 32 and 29 points. Not enough in the Big 12, not when the once-proud defense is hitting the low ebb of a sustained decline that has shown no give in the transition to the Ron Prince administration:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">KSU Defense: National Ranks</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Record</td> <td align="center">Rush</td> <td align="center">Pass</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff.</td> <td align="center">Total</td> <td align="center">Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">11-4</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">4-7</td> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">86</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">84</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">5-6</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">74</td> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">74</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">7-6</td> <td align="center">78</td> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">70</td> <td align="center">66</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">5-7</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">99</td> <td align="center">89</td> <td align="center">69</td> <td align="center">86</td> </tr> </tbody></table> This year's group brings back its only notable player, pass rushing end Ian Campbell, but loses three-fourths of the starting secodary and another three players in the front seven. Stuart Scott-eyed coordinator Tim Tibesar remains on board ad there is not outward sign of progress.
Punt, Other Team, Punt. It's hard to think of any single special teams unit that got more mileage last year than K-State's punt return team, which blocked three kicks and accounted for five touchdowns, two on returns by Nelson (who only returned five all together), one by regular returner Deon Murphy and another off one of the blocks by Courtney Herndon. Murphy remains a dangerous option, but the odds against another big play fest by one segment of the special teams are too long to consider.
By the same turn, the kickoff return team probably won't be allowing three touchdowns run back agaist it two years in a row - though, of course, a little lane/contain practice never hurts.
For the Record. I'm thrilled to note the return of four-fifths of the best-named line in football, including every member of the triumphant trio of Gerard Spexarth, Penisini (heh heh) Liu and the immortal Alesana Alesana. They'll probably be joined this year by Brock Unruh (best pronounced like a stereotypically intense Japanese hibachi chef: "Brock un-RUH!. Not that they can necessarily block anyone, but that's beside the point.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. If there's going to be any kind of turnaround defensively, it's going to come from the crateful of junior college signees arriving in the fall, from which some good is bound to be plucked: the Wildcats inked nineteen third-year guys in a 32-man class in Februrary, more than twice as many as any other school in the Big 12 and surely a record even for a traditionally JUCO-heavy school like K-State; there are as many junior college guys in this class (4) from Bakersfield College in California alone as any other school except Oklahoma State signed at all. That's no way to build a program for the long haul, but for immediate impact, there are couple names the `Cats are relying on to get things back into working order: DT Daniel Calvin and LB Ulla Pomele are four stars accompanied by not one, but two - count `em! - two defensive ends reputed to have turned in a 4.5 40 times, Antonio Felder and Grant Valentine. Whatever that's worth. Pomele and another linebacker, Hansen Sekona, are in for the Spring.
Also: Interested women can still register for the ever popular "Football 101" on April 5 here.
Kansas State on You Tube. Back in the day, TBS' own Erin Andrews rocks, I guess, with the KSU band and Wabash Cannonball against USC in 2002:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1StBt3H67-A&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>FYI: more than five years later, that's still the Trojans' last non-conference loss in the regular season.
See Also: Donald Rumsfeld flips off a K-State student. ... The biggest win in KSU history, and the most devastating loss, three weeks apart. ... And an old, ridiculous play by the forgotten Michael Bishop.
Best-Case. Big 12 teams usually would never circle Fresno State as a key game, but after the Bulldogs put KSU out of their November misery last year, nothing could wipe the bad taste out of the Wildcats' mouth faster than returning the favor in Week Two. There are two winnable games for there that will set the bar for the Big 12 season: at Louisville on a Thursday night and at home against Texas Tech, the conference opener. A 6-0 start is within reach; there are two virtually certain losses in the second half of the slate (Oklahoma and Missouri) and at least one more among Texas A&M, Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. But there's not enough distance between the Wildcats and any of those teams to rule out an 8-4 or 9-3 season and a run at the Alamo or Holiday Bowl.
Worst-Case. On the flip side, there is enough distance to see the Wildcats wallowing in the division basement with Iowa State - the Wildcats were just 3-5 in the conference last year with an unlikely upset of Texas and Baylor and Oklahoma State on the schedule rather than Texas Tech and Texas A&M. If the chips fall the same way, with repeat losses to Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri and expected losses to Oklahoma, Tech and A&M, the Wildcats would have to run the table in toss-up games (Fresno, Louisville, Colorado) and avoid another upset at the hands of Iowa State just to get back to .500 and bowl eligibility. The finale with the Cyclones could shape up as a showdown just to avoid last place.
Non-Binding Forecast. Take What You Can Get: With teams that can finish anywhere from second to sixth in their division, split the distance: most likely is that the Wildcats split the Fresno-Louisville tilt in non-conference, finish 3-5 again in-conference and pray for the Big 12's last bowl spot to fall in its lap. Last year, that was the Texas Bowl, where KSU was waxed by Rutgers in 2006. With a team that lost a little, returns a little, and doesn't look appreciably better or worse than the last four years have led us to expect, I wouldn't hold my breath for any better than that. The most realistic highlight is a win over Kansas.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007: 5-7 (3-5 Big 12, 4th/North)
2003-07: 32-30 (18-23 Big 12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 18 • 36 • 41 • 38 • 27</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>12 (7 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Officially Sanctioned Absurdity</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(213, 201, 235) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
What's Changed. James Johnson and great white receiving hope Jordy Nelson made up K-State's first 1,000-yard rushing/receiving combo since the 2003 conference champions and leave a dearth of offensive playmakers in their wake. Nelson and Johnson alone made up almost 60 percent of the team's yards for scrimmage last year, to say nothing of their efforts on punt and kick returns, respectively. Nelson was one of those guys who was every bit as valuable as his 122 catches (over 12 games; do the math) suggests, maybe more, as this clip indicates, for his versatility and popular, walk-on-made-good vibe:
<object height="255" width="305">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/mIUu-nLx0lw&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="255" width="305"></object></p>For those of you who didn't stick around to the end, the last frames are the most succinct possible summary of Kansas State's 2007 season: "Jordy, thanks for not sucking like everyone else did." Now it's up to "everyone else" to figure out how to replace ten catches and 155 total yards - including Johnson's average contribution, 298 yards - every time out.
What's the Same. Hope for the offense rests almost exclusively with leviathan quarterback Josh Freeman, who despite the November nosedive appeared to mature into the formidable, pocket-bound slinger his recruiting hype suggested. Freeman was wild as a freshman, barely hitting half of his passes for the season and posting an atrocious 6:15 TD:INT ratio; his passer rating at year's end was a hair over 103, barely good enough to crack the top 100 nationally. Every trend rocketed upward in Year Two: completion percentage was well over 50 percent in every game, the TD:INT ratio reversed to 18:11 (minus Freeman's two worst games, against Auburn and Kansas, it was 17:6 in the other ten) and the passer rating never dipped to its previous lows after the opening loss at Auburn. Freeman was still primarily a move-the-sticks manager, but if his rate of improvement from sophomore to junior is even a third what it was from freshman to sophomore, he'll probably deserve all-Big 12 and set pro scouts a-droolin'.
But the problem last year was not Freeman, or any part of the offense, which over six losses in the last eight games averaged 422 yards and scored 24, 39, 20, 31, 32 and 29 points. Not enough in the Big 12, not when the once-proud defense is hitting the low ebb of a sustained decline that has shown no give in the transition to the Ron Prince administration:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">KSU Defense: National Ranks</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(147, 126, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Record</td> <td align="center">Rush</td> <td align="center">Pass</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff.</td> <td align="center">Total</td> <td align="center">Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">11-4</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">4-7</td> <td align="center">60</td> <td align="center">40</td> <td align="center">86</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">84</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">5-6</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">74</td> <td align="center">61</td> <td align="center">45</td> <td align="center">74</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">7-6</td> <td align="center">78</td> <td align="center">53</td> <td align="center">59</td> <td align="center">70</td> <td align="center">66</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">5-7</td> <td align="center">49</td> <td align="center">99</td> <td align="center">89</td> <td align="center">69</td> <td align="center">86</td> </tr> </tbody></table> This year's group brings back its only notable player, pass rushing end Ian Campbell, but loses three-fourths of the starting secodary and another three players in the front seven. Stuart Scott-eyed coordinator Tim Tibesar remains on board ad there is not outward sign of progress.
Punt, Other Team, Punt. It's hard to think of any single special teams unit that got more mileage last year than K-State's punt return team, which blocked three kicks and accounted for five touchdowns, two on returns by Nelson (who only returned five all together), one by regular returner Deon Murphy and another off one of the blocks by Courtney Herndon. Murphy remains a dangerous option, but the odds against another big play fest by one segment of the special teams are too long to consider.
By the same turn, the kickoff return team probably won't be allowing three touchdowns run back agaist it two years in a row - though, of course, a little lane/contain practice never hurts.
For the Record. I'm thrilled to note the return of four-fifths of the best-named line in football, including every member of the triumphant trio of Gerard Spexarth, Penisini (heh heh) Liu and the immortal Alesana Alesana. They'll probably be joined this year by Brock Unruh (best pronounced like a stereotypically intense Japanese hibachi chef: "Brock un-RUH!. Not that they can necessarily block anyone, but that's beside the point.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. If there's going to be any kind of turnaround defensively, it's going to come from the crateful of junior college signees arriving in the fall, from which some good is bound to be plucked: the Wildcats inked nineteen third-year guys in a 32-man class in Februrary, more than twice as many as any other school in the Big 12 and surely a record even for a traditionally JUCO-heavy school like K-State; there are as many junior college guys in this class (4) from Bakersfield College in California alone as any other school except Oklahoma State signed at all. That's no way to build a program for the long haul, but for immediate impact, there are couple names the `Cats are relying on to get things back into working order: DT Daniel Calvin and LB Ulla Pomele are four stars accompanied by not one, but two - count `em! - two defensive ends reputed to have turned in a 4.5 40 times, Antonio Felder and Grant Valentine. Whatever that's worth. Pomele and another linebacker, Hansen Sekona, are in for the Spring.
Also: Interested women can still register for the ever popular "Football 101" on April 5 here.
Kansas State on You Tube. Back in the day, TBS' own Erin Andrews rocks, I guess, with the KSU band and Wabash Cannonball against USC in 2002:
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1StBt3H67-A&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>FYI: more than five years later, that's still the Trojans' last non-conference loss in the regular season.
See Also: Donald Rumsfeld flips off a K-State student. ... The biggest win in KSU history, and the most devastating loss, three weeks apart. ... And an old, ridiculous play by the forgotten Michael Bishop.
Best-Case. Big 12 teams usually would never circle Fresno State as a key game, but after the Bulldogs put KSU out of their November misery last year, nothing could wipe the bad taste out of the Wildcats' mouth faster than returning the favor in Week Two. There are two winnable games for there that will set the bar for the Big 12 season: at Louisville on a Thursday night and at home against Texas Tech, the conference opener. A 6-0 start is within reach; there are two virtually certain losses in the second half of the slate (Oklahoma and Missouri) and at least one more among Texas A&M, Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. But there's not enough distance between the Wildcats and any of those teams to rule out an 8-4 or 9-3 season and a run at the Alamo or Holiday Bowl.
Worst-Case. On the flip side, there is enough distance to see the Wildcats wallowing in the division basement with Iowa State - the Wildcats were just 3-5 in the conference last year with an unlikely upset of Texas and Baylor and Oklahoma State on the schedule rather than Texas Tech and Texas A&M. If the chips fall the same way, with repeat losses to Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri and expected losses to Oklahoma, Tech and A&M, the Wildcats would have to run the table in toss-up games (Fresno, Louisville, Colorado) and avoid another upset at the hands of Iowa State just to get back to .500 and bowl eligibility. The finale with the Cyclones could shape up as a showdown just to avoid last place.
Non-Binding Forecast. Take What You Can Get: With teams that can finish anywhere from second to sixth in their division, split the distance: most likely is that the Wildcats split the Fresno-Louisville tilt in non-conference, finish 3-5 again in-conference and pray for the Big 12's last bowl spot to fall in its lap. Last year, that was the Texas Bowl, where KSU was waxed by Rutgers in 2006. With a team that lost a little, returns a little, and doesn't look appreciably better or worse than the last four years have led us to expect, I wouldn't hold my breath for any better than that. The most realistic highlight is a win over Kansas.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Auburn
by SMQ on Mar 20, 2008 9:53 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Auburn... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="190"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>• 2007: 9-4 (5-3 SEC; 2nd/West)
• 2003-07: 50-14 (32-9 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 21 • 13 • 10 • 7 • 20</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>15 (8 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
The scouts are more enamored with tweener end/tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, but just hit a Google Image search on the kid and you’ll see the heir to the Auburn edge rushing mantle is Antonio Coleman. It was Coleman, not Quentin Groves or likely first rounder Pat Sims, who recorded an unseemly 13 tackles for loss in one five-game stretch against SEC teams (including LSU and Georgia) as a sophomore, in addition to leading the team in sacks and quarterback hurries. He probably can’t do this, but like Groves, Stanley McClover and Reggie Torbor before him, Coleman is a hopped-up outside linebacker (6-2, 243) at end that most tackles can’t touch on long-yardage downs.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>You Know You’re a Tiger/War Eagle If...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
You are in possession of a functioning penis and yet have also spent several consecutive hours enthusiastically, unironically snapping a pom pom (probably while using the business end to stir a drink, or – at least once, during your frat days – wearing a tie). Auburn certainly is not alone here (indeed, the entire state of Alabama is culpable), but it is the most egregious waver of poms, or shakers, or whatever the kids are calling plastic streamers attached to a stick these days, and as such invites dumptruck-fulls of shame. As a handheld fan device, cowbells rout pom poms by a mile; even the wretched inflatable thundersticks beat till limp by second rate crowds are preferable for actually creating a din above "shucka shucka." Face your fate like any good, red-blooded, camouflage-drenched Republican state must: pom poms are for sissies. Also, if you really, really want to correct me about the improper use of "War Eagle."
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. Whatever metric you want to use, there's no question about the direction of Auburn's passing game the last four years:
You would not be entirely wrong to say, "Well, yeah, but Brandon Cox..." Remember, though, that Cox was the starter for all of 2005, and only went down as his career progressed, with interceptions increasing and touchdowns decreasing along with yards and rating each year, to the point that coaches turned at times last year to an erratic true freshman in a desperate search for the old "spark." Even most SEC fans can't name Auburn's starting receivers the last two years (of the ten Tigers who caught double digit passes last year, six were running backs and tight ends). Borges' offense gradually devolved from something fairly explosive in Years One and Two to a waggle-heavy, possession-oriented dump fest designed to avoid mistakes and bleed the clock. It was actually pretty good within that mission - the low-scoring wins over Florida, Arkansas and Alabama and the near-upset at LSU are largely explained by the offense's ability to dominate time of possession despite being outgained on a per-snap basis in each of those games.
But without a Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown or Kenny Irons in the backfield to fuel the favored power running plan that Borges used at his best to set up a lethal play-action attack, and with LSU and Florida shining the path to the future, the creaky two-back set has heaved its last breath and died. Hello, Tony Franklin:
Ninety percent of the Tigers' plays will be run out of the shotgun, whereas previously 90 percent of plays were run with the quarterback under center. While Tuberville always has preferred to set up the pass with the run, Franklin prefers the opposite approach. "We want to throw the ball a lot, especially a lot of quick gains to receivers," Franklin said. "We want the defensive linemen to turn and be running sideways. The longer the game goes on, those linemen get more tired and more tired, and then it gets easier to run the football. We're throwing the ball all over the place, and then we pound it at them."
- - -
Exciting business, but the open question is how much throwin' Franklin is set on as opposed to a Rodriguez-style focus on incorporating the quarterback as an every-down running threat. Kodi Burns certainly fits better in the latter category, and was the offensive star of the <strike>Peach</strike> Chick-Fil-A Bowl by virtue of his very un-Cox-like elusiveness from the gun. Ex-Texas Tech signee Chris Todd is the passing option, though the best guess if Franklin is looking for "a lot of quick gains to wide receivers" (i.e. easy throws even a future pro kick returner can make) is that Burns can probably get by just fine in a Pat White-type role. Either way, the day of the burly plowhorse that's defined the Auburn offense for decades - Bo Jackson, James Brooks, James Bostick, Stephen Davis, Rudi Johnson, et al - is fading fast.
Please, Tony, don't hurt 'em.
- - -
What's the Same. Will Muschamp deserves a lot of credit for an aggressive beast of a defense in his two years here, but the Tigers' national rank in scoring defense the four years before Muschamp's arrival were 13, 9, 1 and 5. The sun never sets on Auburn's endless reserve of slightly undersized hellions in the front seven, and anyone thinking the absence of Muschamp, draft-bound Quentin Groves and Pat Sims or human cinder block Josh Thompson portends vulnerability will be ducking for cover soon enough. The next wave is Antonio Coleman and Sen'Derrick Marks, two of the most productive members of last year's killer rotation as sophomores. Tuberville's defenses have always been based on speed first, and the best straight-ahead, power-oriented offenses can still make some headway - last year, that included Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia and Clemson, which collectively averaged 178 rushing on 4.5 per carry - but God help any offensive line lacking the beef to shove its way out of third-and-long situations, or even third-and-medium: opposing offenses converted about 50 percent of third downs with less than four yards to go last year, compared to about 27 percent with four or more to go and the nigh-unblockable pass rush bearing down. Boy, You'll Be Sophomore Soon. It's hard to say how much of the offense's nosedive began with the line, a hard luck outfit that started with uncertainty at four positions, shuffled all every spot at least twice and spent most of the year with three true freshmen at the front. And yet...when the freshmen are as highly regarded as Lee Ziemba, Chaz Ramsey and Ryan Pugh, frustration turns very quickly in to optimism as growing pains are presumed passed; it's reasonable to think, with the entire starting five back and a new scheme based on keeping defensive lineman from charging decisively upfield, Auburn's line could mature into one of the best in the SEC. At the very least, failing to hit four yards per carry for the second straight year (the average was a paltry 3.28 in SEC games) would be a mark of shame, spread or no spread.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Amid the buzz, intrigue and handwringing wrought by Franklin's scheme and the attendant quarterback puzzle, the best headline was born of an old-fashioned slugfest - "big on big," as they say - wherein Ziemba knocked Antonio Coleman unconscious for 10 or 15 minutes in the course of a post-play scuffle. Coleman was briefly hospitalized with a cervical sprain (ha ha), which must not be as serious as it sounds because he was back at practice days later, albeit equipped with a neck brace.
So AC is okay, Ziemba is okay with AC, and Tommy Tuberville sees no evil:
"It was just two guys competing and he got hurt," Tuberville said. "There was no intention on either side. Both of them got after it all day long. You're going to have a lot of competition. Anytime somebody gets hurt when you're trying to block them, you kind of feel responsible. But there was zero intention. It was both guys competing all day, each was punching each other right and left. That's football. You just hate something like that ever happens."
- - -
Guys punching out teammates in the Spring? That's football! Tubs hates something like that just he hates chop blocking - no, really, really hates chop blocking - we're sure. One wonders: in the process of punching Coleman right and left, what was Ziemba's intent?
Auburn on You Tube. I don't know that there's anything particularly amazing about this, and really, that's the point: a man in a huge, fluffy, cartoon tiger costume with another man strapped to his back can jump out of a moving airplane, on pretty much any day of the week. What a country!
<object height="315" width="375">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GJcq4nqJLT4&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="315" width="375"></object></p>I thought the tension really built there towards the end.
See Also: Throwin it Deep With the Sister of Neil Caudle ... Count the black guys as Auburn takes on Georgia in 1971. ... And a one-sided version of one of the great games I've ever seen: Auburn 36, Florida 33 from 1994.
Best-Case. Atlantastic. If Franklin's offense falls into place out of the gate, as the spread is wont to do, a very year-away-looking team could be on top of the league and right in the conference race in a matter of weeks. Two games in September stand out as make-or-break toward winning the West, both at home: LSU on Sept. 20 and Tennessee on Sept. 27. Combine those with a nice (but ultimately meaningless, in terms of the SEC) trip to West Virginia in October and the annual throwdown with Georgia, and no team searching for an identity on both sides of the ball can be expected even in the most optimistic sense to survive into the Iron Bowl intact. Just split of those four would set the Tigers up nicely for their third ten-win effort in four years - there is no Florida, Arkansas is rebuilding on offense and Alabama is under Tuberville's thumb until it proves otherwise. If one of those wins is over LSU, AU becomes the early division favorite, beats the teams it's supposed to and wanders into the Georgia game with a chance to lock the West down. A perennial top ten contender at this point.
Worst-Case. Last bus to Shreveport: There are many snakes in the grass for such a young team: Southern Miss, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Alabama. Offenses have been known to reject transplants, especially in Year One, and especially when run by potentially one-dimensional sophomores. A wave of mistakes by Burns puts the Tigers in jeopardy of losing maybe two of those "danger" games on top of three or four heavyweight smackdowns from LSU, Tennessee, West Virginia and/or Georgia. Bowl eligibility is probably not in any danger, but it could be just that: the Independence or Liberty Bowl and a lot of "Get `em next year."
Non-Binding Forecast. January or Bust: Plenty of AU partisans are certain to think, "Look what happened the last time we had a new offensive coordinator" in 2004, but this edition does not have the tools, personnel-wise, to reach those heights. West Virginia is a nice, rare interregion game in October, but the difference between a possible BCS bid at 11-2 and the Music City Bowl at 8-4 is precisely the wild card games the Tigers won last year - Arkansas, Alabama, the rotating East rival (Florida last year, Tennessee this year) - and eliminating bizarre losses like Mississippi State. Not much really stands out about this team, but Tuberville has built a good talent base that can count on nine wins on a reliable basis. The only games the Tigers will definitely be favored to lose entering the year are LSU and Georgia, with WVU and UT looming large. Another 9-3, Cotton Bowl-type effort feels right.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>• 2007: 9-4 (5-3 SEC; 2nd/West)
• 2003-07: 50-14 (32-9 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 21 • 13 • 10 • 7 • 20</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>15 (8 Offense, 7 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(124, 129, 173) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>You Know You’re a Tiger/War Eagle If...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(241, 210, 183) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. Whatever metric you want to use, there's no question about the direction of Auburn's passing game the last four years:
You would not be entirely wrong to say, "Well, yeah, but Brandon Cox..." Remember, though, that Cox was the starter for all of 2005, and only went down as his career progressed, with interceptions increasing and touchdowns decreasing along with yards and rating each year, to the point that coaches turned at times last year to an erratic true freshman in a desperate search for the old "spark." Even most SEC fans can't name Auburn's starting receivers the last two years (of the ten Tigers who caught double digit passes last year, six were running backs and tight ends). Borges' offense gradually devolved from something fairly explosive in Years One and Two to a waggle-heavy, possession-oriented dump fest designed to avoid mistakes and bleed the clock. It was actually pretty good within that mission - the low-scoring wins over Florida, Arkansas and Alabama and the near-upset at LSU are largely explained by the offense's ability to dominate time of possession despite being outgained on a per-snap basis in each of those games.
But without a Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown or Kenny Irons in the backfield to fuel the favored power running plan that Borges used at his best to set up a lethal play-action attack, and with LSU and Florida shining the path to the future, the creaky two-back set has heaved its last breath and died. Hello, Tony Franklin:
Ninety percent of the Tigers' plays will be run out of the shotgun, whereas previously 90 percent of plays were run with the quarterback under center. While Tuberville always has preferred to set up the pass with the run, Franklin prefers the opposite approach. "We want to throw the ball a lot, especially a lot of quick gains to receivers," Franklin said. "We want the defensive linemen to turn and be running sideways. The longer the game goes on, those linemen get more tired and more tired, and then it gets easier to run the football. We're throwing the ball all over the place, and then we pound it at them."
- - -
Exciting business, but the open question is how much throwin' Franklin is set on as opposed to a Rodriguez-style focus on incorporating the quarterback as an every-down running threat. Kodi Burns certainly fits better in the latter category, and was the offensive star of the <strike>Peach</strike> Chick-Fil-A Bowl by virtue of his very un-Cox-like elusiveness from the gun. Ex-Texas Tech signee Chris Todd is the passing option, though the best guess if Franklin is looking for "a lot of quick gains to wide receivers" (i.e. easy throws even a future pro kick returner can make) is that Burns can probably get by just fine in a Pat White-type role. Either way, the day of the burly plowhorse that's defined the Auburn offense for decades - Bo Jackson, James Brooks, James Bostick, Stephen Davis, Rudi Johnson, et al - is fading fast.
Please, Tony, don't hurt 'em.
- - -
What's the Same. Will Muschamp deserves a lot of credit for an aggressive beast of a defense in his two years here, but the Tigers' national rank in scoring defense the four years before Muschamp's arrival were 13, 9, 1 and 5. The sun never sets on Auburn's endless reserve of slightly undersized hellions in the front seven, and anyone thinking the absence of Muschamp, draft-bound Quentin Groves and Pat Sims or human cinder block Josh Thompson portends vulnerability will be ducking for cover soon enough. The next wave is Antonio Coleman and Sen'Derrick Marks, two of the most productive members of last year's killer rotation as sophomores. Tuberville's defenses have always been based on speed first, and the best straight-ahead, power-oriented offenses can still make some headway - last year, that included Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia and Clemson, which collectively averaged 178 rushing on 4.5 per carry - but God help any offensive line lacking the beef to shove its way out of third-and-long situations, or even third-and-medium: opposing offenses converted about 50 percent of third downs with less than four yards to go last year, compared to about 27 percent with four or more to go and the nigh-unblockable pass rush bearing down. Boy, You'll Be Sophomore Soon. It's hard to say how much of the offense's nosedive began with the line, a hard luck outfit that started with uncertainty at four positions, shuffled all every spot at least twice and spent most of the year with three true freshmen at the front. And yet...when the freshmen are as highly regarded as Lee Ziemba, Chaz Ramsey and Ryan Pugh, frustration turns very quickly in to optimism as growing pains are presumed passed; it's reasonable to think, with the entire starting five back and a new scheme based on keeping defensive lineman from charging decisively upfield, Auburn's line could mature into one of the best in the SEC. At the very least, failing to hit four yards per carry for the second straight year (the average was a paltry 3.28 in SEC games) would be a mark of shame, spread or no spread.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Amid the buzz, intrigue and handwringing wrought by Franklin's scheme and the attendant quarterback puzzle, the best headline was born of an old-fashioned slugfest - "big on big," as they say - wherein Ziemba knocked Antonio Coleman unconscious for 10 or 15 minutes in the course of a post-play scuffle. Coleman was briefly hospitalized with a cervical sprain (ha ha), which must not be as serious as it sounds because he was back at practice days later, albeit equipped with a neck brace.
So AC is okay, Ziemba is okay with AC, and Tommy Tuberville sees no evil:
"It was just two guys competing and he got hurt," Tuberville said. "There was no intention on either side. Both of them got after it all day long. You're going to have a lot of competition. Anytime somebody gets hurt when you're trying to block them, you kind of feel responsible. But there was zero intention. It was both guys competing all day, each was punching each other right and left. That's football. You just hate something like that ever happens."
- - -
Guys punching out teammates in the Spring? That's football! Tubs hates something like that just he hates chop blocking - no, really, really hates chop blocking - we're sure. One wonders: in the process of punching Coleman right and left, what was Ziemba's intent?
Auburn on You Tube. I don't know that there's anything particularly amazing about this, and really, that's the point: a man in a huge, fluffy, cartoon tiger costume with another man strapped to his back can jump out of a moving airplane, on pretty much any day of the week. What a country!
<object height="315" width="375">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GJcq4nqJLT4&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="315" width="375"></object></p>I thought the tension really built there towards the end.
See Also: Throwin it Deep With the Sister of Neil Caudle ... Count the black guys as Auburn takes on Georgia in 1971. ... And a one-sided version of one of the great games I've ever seen: Auburn 36, Florida 33 from 1994.
Best-Case. Atlantastic. If Franklin's offense falls into place out of the gate, as the spread is wont to do, a very year-away-looking team could be on top of the league and right in the conference race in a matter of weeks. Two games in September stand out as make-or-break toward winning the West, both at home: LSU on Sept. 20 and Tennessee on Sept. 27. Combine those with a nice (but ultimately meaningless, in terms of the SEC) trip to West Virginia in October and the annual throwdown with Georgia, and no team searching for an identity on both sides of the ball can be expected even in the most optimistic sense to survive into the Iron Bowl intact. Just split of those four would set the Tigers up nicely for their third ten-win effort in four years - there is no Florida, Arkansas is rebuilding on offense and Alabama is under Tuberville's thumb until it proves otherwise. If one of those wins is over LSU, AU becomes the early division favorite, beats the teams it's supposed to and wanders into the Georgia game with a chance to lock the West down. A perennial top ten contender at this point.
Worst-Case. Last bus to Shreveport: There are many snakes in the grass for such a young team: Southern Miss, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Alabama. Offenses have been known to reject transplants, especially in Year One, and especially when run by potentially one-dimensional sophomores. A wave of mistakes by Burns puts the Tigers in jeopardy of losing maybe two of those "danger" games on top of three or four heavyweight smackdowns from LSU, Tennessee, West Virginia and/or Georgia. Bowl eligibility is probably not in any danger, but it could be just that: the Independence or Liberty Bowl and a lot of "Get `em next year."
Non-Binding Forecast. January or Bust: Plenty of AU partisans are certain to think, "Look what happened the last time we had a new offensive coordinator" in 2004, but this edition does not have the tools, personnel-wise, to reach those heights. West Virginia is a nice, rare interregion game in October, but the difference between a possible BCS bid at 11-2 and the Music City Bowl at 8-4 is precisely the wild card games the Tigers won last year - Arkansas, Alabama, the rotating East rival (Florida last year, Tennessee this year) - and eliminating bizarre losses like Mississippi State. Not much really stands out about this team, but Tuberville has built a good talent base that can count on nine wins on a reliable basis. The only games the Tigers will definitely be favored to lose entering the year are LSU and Georgia, with WVU and UT looming large. Another 9-3, Cotton Bowl-type effort feels right.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Up and Up: Pittsburgh
by SMQ on Mar 19, 2008 10:47 AM EDT in News
Teams on the rise sooner, not later.
- - -
Where They've Been. After five bowls in five years, a couple top 25 finishes and an improbable BCS bid in 2004 under Walt Harris, calculating NFL tactician Dave Wanstedt has worked hard to deliver a 9-12 conference record, zero bowl games and one completely torn Achilles tendon. Seniors who helped win the Big East as freshmen left after a sixth place finish in 2006 and a tie for fifth last year. Pitt's perpetually within a game of the postseason, but the only team with a worse league record since 2005 is the other victim of a long-time pro acolyte, Syracuse.
McCoy: Real, etc.
- - -
Catalysts. Pittsburgh is the most talented team in the Big East, according to the recruiters, and conventional wisdom holds that Year Four is the season we finally see the fruits of the Wannstedt Bump on the trail. The only evidence of the alleged bodily-kinesthetic superiority on the field so far is LeSean McCoy, a real star-quality kid who made a strong case against Ray Rice as the best running back in the conference as a freshman. If not for Pat White and George Selvie, McCoy would probably be regarded as the best player in the Big East going into the fall, period, and might turn out to be anyway. If you want one big, optimism-fueling, over-the-rainbow moment, though, it's obviously the season finale over West Virginia, a sudden display of ball-hogging physicality and defense that set the Mountaineers a-cursin' their coach right out of town. This was a B12 shot not only for turning the tables on a rival set to play for the mythical championship, but for turning them with defense after a pair of unholy beatings the previous two meetings - White and Steve Slaton alone had 440 total yards in 2005 and an unseemly 639 in 2006, back-to-back 45-point efforts by WVU that could have been much worse. It was, you know...
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/kZuO4LgvMdk&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>Yeah, Pat, rather kitten-like. By contrast, holding essentially the same offense to 183 yards and nine points in November was the first sure sign this team still had some teeth. Where Wannstedt was concerned, perfect timing, too.
Youth Movement. McCoy was the bright side of last year's reliance on young'ins. Pat Bostick was the dark side: the hyped true freshman threw an interception on his first pass against Grambling, finished with 12 ipicks to eight touchdowns and only game (against Syracuse) with more of the latter than the former. That was Bostick's only "good" game, because he was efficient without making a series of terrible mistakes, as he did in less-lopsided-than-the-score-indicates losses to UConn (three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown) and South Florida (three interceptions, two returned for touchdowns). McCoy and the defense bailed out two more picks Bostick tossed at West Virginia.
The good news on that front is that a) the team can win without a heroic effort from the quarterback, and b) there's nowhere to go but up. Given Bostick's recruiting hype, there's good reason to hope the mistakes were merely the folly of a freshman thrown prematurely into the fire. Even if he doesn't make many more plays, if Bostick just cuts the mistakes, the offense will be much better.
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Underclassman Contributions, 2007</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(208, 196, 138) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Offense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Rush Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Rec. Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">70.8</td> <td align="center">16.1</td> <td align="center">41.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">4.9</td> <td align="center">53.4</td> <td align="center">20.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">100</td> <td align="center">84.7</td> <td align="center">93.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(208, 196, 138) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Defense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Tackles</td> <td align="center">% of Sacks/TFL</td> <td align="center">% of Miscellaneous</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">9.1</td> <td align="center">16.2</td> <td align="center">9.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">24.4</td> <td align="center">29.1</td> <td align="center">28.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">73.7</td> <td align="center">71.4</td> <td align="center">71.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Three factors not in the chart: Derek Kinder, Gus Mustakas, Bill Stull. Kinder led the team in receiving in `06 and was preseason all-Big East before he tore his ACL in preseason practice; he took a medical redshirt and will be a fifth-year senior opposite the up-and-coming star of the corps, Oderick Turner. Mustakas was a solid defensive line starter who missed the last ten games, and the reason Bostick was in the lineup at all was the injury to starter Stull in the opening win over Eastern Michigan. The job is technically wide open, though Bostick has more game action than Stull and a much bigger upside.
Surprising Wins, Close Losses, and Other Circumstantial Momentum. See above for the impact of the West Virginia win to cap three years of disappointment, and the well-regarded class that followed it, Wannstedt's third in a row. It's like that one shot I nailed over the lake the first time (out of two) I played golf: once you prove you can do the tough things, screwing up the routine is all the more frustrating.
Where They're Going. "Breakthrough" in this case has to mean something better than the Car Care Bowl. That would probably be enough progress to keep Wannstedt around, but Pitt's not coming from that far behind. If the Panthers want to make a dent on the conference commensurate with their potential, they'll build some momentum by beating Iowa at home in Week Three and go into Notre Dame on the first weekend of November looking to lock up a winning season. No more losses to Navy, double overtime or no.
The potentially defining stretch is the closing month after the trip to South Bend: Louisville, at Cincinnati, West Virginia, at UConn. Pitt started 6-1 in 2006 and finished with five straight losses. If it's not a similar position hitting the last four here, Wannstedt is probably done.
Teams on the rise sooner, not later.
- - -
Where They've Been. After five bowls in five years, a couple top 25 finishes and an improbable BCS bid in 2004 under Walt Harris, calculating NFL tactician Dave Wanstedt has worked hard to deliver a 9-12 conference record, zero bowl games and one completely torn Achilles tendon. Seniors who helped win the Big East as freshmen left after a sixth place finish in 2006 and a tie for fifth last year. Pitt's perpetually within a game of the postseason, but the only team with a worse league record since 2005 is the other victim of a long-time pro acolyte, Syracuse.
McCoy: Real, etc.
- - -
Catalysts. Pittsburgh is the most talented team in the Big East, according to the recruiters, and conventional wisdom holds that Year Four is the season we finally see the fruits of the Wannstedt Bump on the trail. The only evidence of the alleged bodily-kinesthetic superiority on the field so far is LeSean McCoy, a real star-quality kid who made a strong case against Ray Rice as the best running back in the conference as a freshman. If not for Pat White and George Selvie, McCoy would probably be regarded as the best player in the Big East going into the fall, period, and might turn out to be anyway. If you want one big, optimism-fueling, over-the-rainbow moment, though, it's obviously the season finale over West Virginia, a sudden display of ball-hogging physicality and defense that set the Mountaineers a-cursin' their coach right out of town. This was a B12 shot not only for turning the tables on a rival set to play for the mythical championship, but for turning them with defense after a pair of unholy beatings the previous two meetings - White and Steve Slaton alone had 440 total yards in 2005 and an unseemly 639 in 2006, back-to-back 45-point efforts by WVU that could have been much worse. It was, you know...
<object height="305" width="365">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/kZuO4LgvMdk&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="365"></object></p>Yeah, Pat, rather kitten-like. By contrast, holding essentially the same offense to 183 yards and nine points in November was the first sure sign this team still had some teeth. Where Wannstedt was concerned, perfect timing, too.
Youth Movement. McCoy was the bright side of last year's reliance on young'ins. Pat Bostick was the dark side: the hyped true freshman threw an interception on his first pass against Grambling, finished with 12 ipicks to eight touchdowns and only game (against Syracuse) with more of the latter than the former. That was Bostick's only "good" game, because he was efficient without making a series of terrible mistakes, as he did in less-lopsided-than-the-score-indicates losses to UConn (three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown) and South Florida (three interceptions, two returned for touchdowns). McCoy and the defense bailed out two more picks Bostick tossed at West Virginia.
The good news on that front is that a) the team can win without a heroic effort from the quarterback, and b) there's nowhere to go but up. Given Bostick's recruiting hype, there's good reason to hope the mistakes were merely the folly of a freshman thrown prematurely into the fire. Even if he doesn't make many more plays, if Bostick just cuts the mistakes, the offense will be much better.
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Underclassman Contributions, 2007</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(208, 196, 138) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Offense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Rush Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Rec. Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">70.8</td> <td align="center">16.1</td> <td align="center">41.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">4.9</td> <td align="center">53.4</td> <td align="center">20.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">100</td> <td align="center">84.7</td> <td align="center">93.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(208, 196, 138) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Defense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Tackles</td> <td align="center">% of Sacks/TFL</td> <td align="center">% of Miscellaneous</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">9.1</td> <td align="center">16.2</td> <td align="center">9.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">24.4</td> <td align="center">29.1</td> <td align="center">28.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">73.7</td> <td align="center">71.4</td> <td align="center">71.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Three factors not in the chart: Derek Kinder, Gus Mustakas, Bill Stull. Kinder led the team in receiving in `06 and was preseason all-Big East before he tore his ACL in preseason practice; he took a medical redshirt and will be a fifth-year senior opposite the up-and-coming star of the corps, Oderick Turner. Mustakas was a solid defensive line starter who missed the last ten games, and the reason Bostick was in the lineup at all was the injury to starter Stull in the opening win over Eastern Michigan. The job is technically wide open, though Bostick has more game action than Stull and a much bigger upside.
Surprising Wins, Close Losses, and Other Circumstantial Momentum. See above for the impact of the West Virginia win to cap three years of disappointment, and the well-regarded class that followed it, Wannstedt's third in a row. It's like that one shot I nailed over the lake the first time (out of two) I played golf: once you prove you can do the tough things, screwing up the routine is all the more frustrating.
Where They're Going. "Breakthrough" in this case has to mean something better than the Car Care Bowl. That would probably be enough progress to keep Wannstedt around, but Pitt's not coming from that far behind. If the Panthers want to make a dent on the conference commensurate with their potential, they'll build some momentum by beating Iowa at home in Week Three and go into Notre Dame on the first weekend of November looking to lock up a winning season. No more losses to Navy, double overtime or no.
The potentially defining stretch is the closing month after the trip to South Bend: Louisville, at Cincinnati, West Virginia, at UConn. Pitt started 6-1 in 2006 and finished with five straight losses. If it's not a similar position hitting the last four here, Wannstedt is probably done.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Ball State
by SMQ on Mar 17, 2008 1:07 PM EDT in News
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
The least you should know about Ball State... <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px;" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="1" width="190"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>• 2007: 7-6 (5-2 MAC; 2nd/West)
• 2003-07: 22-37 (19-20 MAC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 97 • 103 • 77 • 79 • 101</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>19 (11 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
Nate Davis was an elite recruit by MAC standards, a big (6-3, 215), versatile passer ranked as one of the top 40 incoming quarterbacks in the country in 2006. He’s been at least that good: he led the MAC in passing efficiency each of his first two seasons and last year had a ridiculous 16:0 TD:INT ratio in seven conference games, which doesn’t include his 422-yard, 3-touchdown effort in the near-upset at Nebraska or his 291-yard, 3-touchdown game against Rutgers in the International Bowl. Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour gets all the love out of this league, but Davis is his equal statistically and as a pro prospect and should challenge the two-time MAC Player of the Year for every all-conference honor. Don’t know why he throws the ball like that.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>You Know You’re a Cardinal If...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
...you’re a hugely popular, fabulously wealthy, thoroughly mediocre comedian well past his prime. The Late Show and Garfield – hosted and drawn, respectively, by BSU alums David Letterman and Jim Davis – were innovative enough in their day, but the quasi-funny men have long faded into the same routine yet lucrative blandness embodied in the life’s work of pizza maven and BSU alum John Schnatter, aka "Papa John," who traitorously lends his name to the stadium of another group of Cardinals. In all fairness, Ball State has produced six other current CEOs, including the bosses at United Way, the American Cancer Society and London’s ultra swanky Burberry Group. Also: you love kegs. Tradition never graduates.
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. Expectations, mainly, a welcome pressure ("eustress," for ninth grade psychologists in the house) around these parts after years of pessimism. Going back to the start of the decade, the preseason consensus on Ball State's prospects in the six-team MAC West: sixth, fourth, fourth, fifth, fifth, sixth, fifth, fourth. Last year was the first time since its last MAC championship in 1996 that BSU won five conference games, finished with a winning record overall and/or ended the year in a bowl game, and virtually the entire starting lineup is back on both sides. So the Cardinals can probably expect to share at least part of the burden of conference frontrunner with Central Michigan when the magazines start rolling out this summer - College Football News has already labeled the Cardinals a dark horse challenger for the top 25, for whatever that's worth. The only part of the lineup expecting to feature any fresh faces is the defensive line, where there will be three new starters, and that's just as well given the shameful acquiescence of the run defense the last two years. It's one thing to give up 521 yards on the ground to Navy, or 324 to Rose Bowl-bound Illinois, but BSU was its usual generous self to conference backs, too, and gave up more than five yards per carry on both first and second down runs for the third year in a row.
What's the Same. The passing game was the most prolific in the MAC, a fairly prolific passing conference overall, almost entirely the work of three names likely to go on the first day of the draft in 2009 and 2010: quarterback Nate Davis, lusciously-dubbed receiver Dante Love and tight end Darius Hill. Davis completed 270 passes as a sophomore en route to the breaking the elusive 3,000-yard/30-touchdown barrier, the vast majority of them to Love and Hill, who accounted for more than 2,300 yards and 21 of the team's 30 receiving touchdowns. The failures of the defense meant Davis had to sling it a lot, and sling he did, most memorably rifling the Cardinals within a blocked extra point and missed field goal of upsetting Nebraska in a 41-40 loss. Love and Hill combined for 15 catches for 307 yards in Lincoln, and if the Husker defense wasn't its usual self (hell, it wasn't even Iowa State's usual self) last year, it wasn't a step down from the MAC, either.
Hoke: Orgeron of the MAC.
- - -
Speaking of which, Davis did not throw an interception in 241 throws against MAC defenses, against whom the Cardinals averaged 33 points. With Davis, Love, Hill, deep threat Louis Johnson (MAC-best 24.8 per catch, 8 over 25 yards) and the entire backfield and offensive line in tow, the offense should at least match that number and won't see many others that can keep up. Thar, She Blows. The talent and experience on offense is going to obscure in most forecasts just how bad the defense is, and - returning starters notwithstanding - is almost guaranteed to be again. Last year's unit was 84th or worst nationally and ninth or worse in the MAC in rush defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense, scoring defense, sacks and tackles for loss. And though bad games against Nebraska (41 points), Indiana (38) and Rutgers (52) are to be expected, it also gave up 58 points to Central Michigan in the decisive game for the division title. There is nothing in the recent past that suggests a turnaround with experiece:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">BSU Defense: National (MAC) Rankings Under Brady Hoke</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Ret. Starters</td> <td align="center">Rush D</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff. D</td> <td align="center">Total D</td> <td align="center">Scoring D</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">98 (11)</td> <td align="center">90 (8)</td> <td align="center">71 (6)</td> <td align="center">92 (11)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">100 (13)</td> <td align="center">117 (14)</td> <td align="center">112 (12)</td> <td align="center">109 (12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">105 (11)</td> <td align="center">110 (12)</td> <td align="center">111 (12)</td> <td align="center">112 (12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">103 (10)</td> <td align="center">100 (10)</td> <td align="center">115 (12)</td> <td align="center">83 (8)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">106 (10)</td> <td align="center">90 (9)</td> <td align="center">96 (10)</td> <td align="center">68 (4)</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Take last year's improvement in scoring defense with a grain of salt, due to...
Your Most Valuable Possession. The Cardinals were not only +17 in turnover margin, fourth nationally and best in the MAC, but they didn't finish below the Mendoza line in a single game. BSU had the lowest giveaway number in the country (only eleven) and was +2 or better in six different games, including close wins over Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Part of that was Davis' exceptional aversion to interceptions, which might reasonably continue, but it was aided by a few bounces, too (+4 in fumbles recovered:fumbles lost). Numbers like +17 virtually never repeat unless the defense is composed of USC's explosive raiders from the first half of Pete Carroll's tenure; there is no way this defense, perennially substandard withing its own downtrodden league, can expect to give up so few points again if it continues to hemorrhage yards.
Overly Optimistic Pre-Spring Chatter. Ball State's fortunes were apparently bad enough that, after four long years of meticulous bricklaying, the Brady Hoke administration resurrected itself from lame duck to hot commodity in one fell swoop. The alleged attention from then-desperate Michigan was not enough to land Hoke (career record: 22-36, 0-16 vs. BCS conference teams) a job with the big boys, but it was enough to convince his current employer it had some catch on its hands: Hoke signed an "enhanced contract" in February that secures him through 2010 and bumps his salary to $240,000. Thank you, <strike>reporter gullible enough to put "Brady Hoke's name has been advanced for the Michigan job" into an actual story</strike> Michigan!
Hoke excited the natives with another promising quarterback signee in February, Texas' Kelly Page, but there's still much concern over the running back position, inconsistent and besot with injuries last year - a sixth-stringer, Chris Clancy, started the bowl game. Projected starter Quale Lewis will be held out of the spring to avoid putting his torn ACL at risk, and he'll find a crowded field when he gets back in the fall; among the signees is Rashaad White of Georgia, who reportedly got serious attention from Clemson, North Carolina and South Carolina.
Ball State on You Tube. You decide: is Dante Love in fast forward against Navy:
<object height="325" width="375">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/63Fr7EoBPJc&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="325" width="375"></object></p>Or is that a legit 4.3? Love is listed at 4.48 here.
See Also: It's freshman year at Ball State. ... The Seven Deadly Sins, mostly perpetrated by the same nerdy guy. ... And Snow days and mud wrestling on Parents' Weekend. It's all good.
Best-Case: Champions, My Friend. First, all MAC schedules are tentative - BSU dropped Temple for Akron just two weeks ago. As it stands, this is a tailor-made slate for the dark horse run CFN's talking about: there are no Nebraskas, no Illinois, no Purdues, Iowas or Auburns. The toughest nonconference games are Indiana and Navy, from which BSU is likely to emerge 1-1 at best. Within the conference, though, the Cardinals will probably be favored going into the year in every game except the Nov. 19 trip to Central Michigan, which shapes up again as the de facto West division championship (and the second of two straight mid-week games on ESPN2, a rare BSU sighting on national TV). It's not reasonable to think Ball will suddenly run the table in the MAC, but a 6-1 record - as long as the `1' isn't against CMU - ought to be good enough to punch a ticket to the MAC Championship.
Worst-Case: Obscurity, Muncie Be Thy Name. The MAC has no stable hierarchy, and if it did, Ball State wouldn't be high enough within it to regard anything as automatic. There are no certain losses, but almost no certain wins, either; the "glass half empty" view of the schedule can conceive of nine losses as easily as nine wins. The four crucial September games - Navy, Akron, Indiana and Kent State - are pretty representative of the rest of the schedule and should set the tone for the season. A lousy or mediocre start probably portends a lousy or mediocre year on the order of 5-7, right within the "Hoke Window" (three of his first four teams here were 4-8, 4-7 and 5-7). An unlikely loss to I-AA Northeastern in the opener would be a disaster, in which case all bets are immediately off.
Motor City or Bust. Ball State has won ten games once in its history, in 1978, and with a potential 14 games this year has to have that benchmark in sight. More importantly, that will mean a real shot at the conference title, which likely hinges on the late head to head with Central Michigan. With the tremendous skill talent returning on offense, the championship should be the goal, and (barring major injury to Davis) anything less than another bowl game should be met with gnashing of teeth and maybe rending of contract enhancements. For point-scoring potential and a schedule rife with opportunity, this is one of your mid-major snakes in the grass.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>• 2007: 7-6 (5-2 MAC; 2nd/West)
• 2003-07: 22-37 (19-20 MAC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>2004-08: 97 • 103 • 77 • 79 • 101</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>19 (11 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>You Know You’re a Cardinal If...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(239, 206, 206) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> * According to Rivals
What's Changed. Expectations, mainly, a welcome pressure ("eustress," for ninth grade psychologists in the house) around these parts after years of pessimism. Going back to the start of the decade, the preseason consensus on Ball State's prospects in the six-team MAC West: sixth, fourth, fourth, fifth, fifth, sixth, fifth, fourth. Last year was the first time since its last MAC championship in 1996 that BSU won five conference games, finished with a winning record overall and/or ended the year in a bowl game, and virtually the entire starting lineup is back on both sides. So the Cardinals can probably expect to share at least part of the burden of conference frontrunner with Central Michigan when the magazines start rolling out this summer - College Football News has already labeled the Cardinals a dark horse challenger for the top 25, for whatever that's worth. The only part of the lineup expecting to feature any fresh faces is the defensive line, where there will be three new starters, and that's just as well given the shameful acquiescence of the run defense the last two years. It's one thing to give up 521 yards on the ground to Navy, or 324 to Rose Bowl-bound Illinois, but BSU was its usual generous self to conference backs, too, and gave up more than five yards per carry on both first and second down runs for the third year in a row.
What's the Same. The passing game was the most prolific in the MAC, a fairly prolific passing conference overall, almost entirely the work of three names likely to go on the first day of the draft in 2009 and 2010: quarterback Nate Davis, lusciously-dubbed receiver Dante Love and tight end Darius Hill. Davis completed 270 passes as a sophomore en route to the breaking the elusive 3,000-yard/30-touchdown barrier, the vast majority of them to Love and Hill, who accounted for more than 2,300 yards and 21 of the team's 30 receiving touchdowns. The failures of the defense meant Davis had to sling it a lot, and sling he did, most memorably rifling the Cardinals within a blocked extra point and missed field goal of upsetting Nebraska in a 41-40 loss. Love and Hill combined for 15 catches for 307 yards in Lincoln, and if the Husker defense wasn't its usual self (hell, it wasn't even Iowa State's usual self) last year, it wasn't a step down from the MAC, either.
Hoke: Orgeron of the MAC.
- - -
Speaking of which, Davis did not throw an interception in 241 throws against MAC defenses, against whom the Cardinals averaged 33 points. With Davis, Love, Hill, deep threat Louis Johnson (MAC-best 24.8 per catch, 8 over 25 yards) and the entire backfield and offensive line in tow, the offense should at least match that number and won't see many others that can keep up. Thar, She Blows. The talent and experience on offense is going to obscure in most forecasts just how bad the defense is, and - returning starters notwithstanding - is almost guaranteed to be again. Last year's unit was 84th or worst nationally and ninth or worse in the MAC in rush defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense, scoring defense, sacks and tackles for loss. And though bad games against Nebraska (41 points), Indiana (38) and Rutgers (52) are to be expected, it also gave up 58 points to Central Michigan in the decisive game for the division title. There is nothing in the recent past that suggests a turnaround with experiece:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">BSU Defense: National (MAC) Rankings Under Brady Hoke</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(242, 122, 122) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Ret. Starters</td> <td align="center">Rush D</td> <td align="center">Pass Eff. D</td> <td align="center">Total D</td> <td align="center">Scoring D</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">98 (11)</td> <td align="center">90 (8)</td> <td align="center">71 (6)</td> <td align="center">92 (11)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2004</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">100 (13)</td> <td align="center">117 (14)</td> <td align="center">112 (12)</td> <td align="center">109 (12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">105 (11)</td> <td align="center">110 (12)</td> <td align="center">111 (12)</td> <td align="center">112 (12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">103 (10)</td> <td align="center">100 (10)</td> <td align="center">115 (12)</td> <td align="center">83 (8)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">106 (10)</td> <td align="center">90 (9)</td> <td align="center">96 (10)</td> <td align="center">68 (4)</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Take last year's improvement in scoring defense with a grain of salt, due to...
Your Most Valuable Possession. The Cardinals were not only +17 in turnover margin, fourth nationally and best in the MAC, but they didn't finish below the Mendoza line in a single game. BSU had the lowest giveaway number in the country (only eleven) and was +2 or better in six different games, including close wins over Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Part of that was Davis' exceptional aversion to interceptions, which might reasonably continue, but it was aided by a few bounces, too (+4 in fumbles recovered:fumbles lost). Numbers like +17 virtually never repeat unless the defense is composed of USC's explosive raiders from the first half of Pete Carroll's tenure; there is no way this defense, perennially substandard withing its own downtrodden league, can expect to give up so few points again if it continues to hemorrhage yards.
Overly Optimistic Pre-Spring Chatter. Ball State's fortunes were apparently bad enough that, after four long years of meticulous bricklaying, the Brady Hoke administration resurrected itself from lame duck to hot commodity in one fell swoop. The alleged attention from then-desperate Michigan was not enough to land Hoke (career record: 22-36, 0-16 vs. BCS conference teams) a job with the big boys, but it was enough to convince his current employer it had some catch on its hands: Hoke signed an "enhanced contract" in February that secures him through 2010 and bumps his salary to $240,000. Thank you, <strike>reporter gullible enough to put "Brady Hoke's name has been advanced for the Michigan job" into an actual story</strike> Michigan!
Hoke excited the natives with another promising quarterback signee in February, Texas' Kelly Page, but there's still much concern over the running back position, inconsistent and besot with injuries last year - a sixth-stringer, Chris Clancy, started the bowl game. Projected starter Quale Lewis will be held out of the spring to avoid putting his torn ACL at risk, and he'll find a crowded field when he gets back in the fall; among the signees is Rashaad White of Georgia, who reportedly got serious attention from Clemson, North Carolina and South Carolina.
Ball State on You Tube. You decide: is Dante Love in fast forward against Navy:
<object height="325" width="375">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/63Fr7EoBPJc&hl=en" wmode="transparent" height="325" width="375"></object></p>Or is that a legit 4.3? Love is listed at 4.48 here.
See Also: It's freshman year at Ball State. ... The Seven Deadly Sins, mostly perpetrated by the same nerdy guy. ... And Snow days and mud wrestling on Parents' Weekend. It's all good.
Best-Case: Champions, My Friend. First, all MAC schedules are tentative - BSU dropped Temple for Akron just two weeks ago. As it stands, this is a tailor-made slate for the dark horse run CFN's talking about: there are no Nebraskas, no Illinois, no Purdues, Iowas or Auburns. The toughest nonconference games are Indiana and Navy, from which BSU is likely to emerge 1-1 at best. Within the conference, though, the Cardinals will probably be favored going into the year in every game except the Nov. 19 trip to Central Michigan, which shapes up again as the de facto West division championship (and the second of two straight mid-week games on ESPN2, a rare BSU sighting on national TV). It's not reasonable to think Ball will suddenly run the table in the MAC, but a 6-1 record - as long as the `1' isn't against CMU - ought to be good enough to punch a ticket to the MAC Championship.
Worst-Case: Obscurity, Muncie Be Thy Name. The MAC has no stable hierarchy, and if it did, Ball State wouldn't be high enough within it to regard anything as automatic. There are no certain losses, but almost no certain wins, either; the "glass half empty" view of the schedule can conceive of nine losses as easily as nine wins. The four crucial September games - Navy, Akron, Indiana and Kent State - are pretty representative of the rest of the schedule and should set the tone for the season. A lousy or mediocre start probably portends a lousy or mediocre year on the order of 5-7, right within the "Hoke Window" (three of his first four teams here were 4-8, 4-7 and 5-7). An unlikely loss to I-AA Northeastern in the opener would be a disaster, in which case all bets are immediately off.
Motor City or Bust. Ball State has won ten games once in its history, in 1978, and with a potential 14 games this year has to have that benchmark in sight. More importantly, that will mean a real shot at the conference title, which likely hinges on the late head to head with Central Michigan. With the tremendous skill talent returning on offense, the championship should be the goal, and (barring major injury to Davis) anything less than another bowl game should be met with gnashing of teeth and maybe rending of contract enhancements. For point-scoring potential and a schedule rife with opportunity, this is one of your mid-major snakes in the grass.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Up and Up: North Carolina
by SMQ on Mar 6, 2008 1:53 PM EST in News
Teams on the rise sooner, not later.
- - -
Where They've Been. John Bunting was probably doomed in 2003, off back-to-back 3-9 and 2-10 years, and who knows how far his tortured stay through 2006 set the program back. If only UNC hadn't stunned Miami in 2004, it would have missed another bowl game and probably gotten on with the rebuilding job in 2005. Who could the Heels have landed in `05 - probably not Les Miles, given his destination, or Steve Spurrier, given his alma mater, but Ty Willingham, maybe? Greg Robinson? Dave Wannstedt? Walt Harris? Ron Zook? Er.
Actually, maybe it's better in the long run that the bowl bid bought Bunting another year, and that going 5-6 in '05 bought him another year, somehow, and that the team's horriffic start in 2006 bought him a ticket on the next train at midseason. The head start in the hiring process led Carolina to the best available change agent...
Catalysts. All optimism re: UNC is tied at its core to Butch Davis, and specifically an encore of the resuscitation he engineered at probation-racked Miami in the late nineties. The steady decline and eventual collapse of the Coker era at the U was further proof that the 2001 mythical championship team was really Davis' baby, and the `02 team that came within a pass interference penalty of repeating, too (totally legit call, `Canes fans. Sorry). Carolina's kitchen was a whole different kind of mess, off four losing seasons in five years, three of them with three wins or less, and a cupboard practically bare of competitive talent. It's a full-scale remodeling job.
Davis' first team was only 4-8, 3-5 in the ACC, a very Bunting-like result. So if you think the Heels are going anywhere, the foundation of that premise has to be Butch's history of success in Miami.
Youth Movement. You can make a very, very long list chronicling the contributions made by freshmen - mostly true freshmen - and sophomores to last year's effort. Or you can condense it:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Underclassman Contributions, 2007</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(161, 183, 244) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Offense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Rush Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Rec. Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">87</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">31</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">17</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">101</td> <td align="center">99</td> <td align="center">68</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(161, 183, 244) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Defense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Tackles</td> <td align="center">% of Sacks/TFL</td> <td align="center">% of Miscellaneous</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">38</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">18</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">68</td> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="center">73</td> </tr> </tbody></table> All of the departing points were via the leg of Connor Barth. The losses on offense amount to the center and Nebraska refugee Joe Dailey, an occasional contributor at receiver after a predictably dismal junior year in and out of the quarterback spot in 2006. These are also the two who combined for -7 yards on two carries last year, the totality of the -1 percent of the rushing offense attributed to departing seniors. The stars of the offense were receivers Hakeem Nicks, an all-ACC pick as a sophomore, and junior Brandon Tate, who contributed as much as a kick returner as he did as a receiver en route to leading the conference in all-purpose yards. That may change as hyped `07 recruits Greg Little and Zack Pianalto command more attention, as they did over the last month of their freshman campaign: Pianalto grabbed 15 of his 24 receptions in the last five games, and Little, listed as a receiver, popped off for 89 yards as a full-time running back against Georgia Tech and 154 against Duke in the last two games. That was UNC's only individual 100-yard rushing game of the season, but two other freshmen (Johnny White and Anthony Elzy) had 90-yard games earlier in the year. It's a good bet with Little's addition that contingent won't finish 107th in rushing again.
That's not to mention another top 25 running back recruit, Ryan Houston, who was a major part of the rotation in the toughest stretch of the season (42 of Houston's 44 carries were against South Florida, Virginia Tech, Miami, South Carolina and Wake Forest), or Mike Paulus, a top ten quarterback prospect who redshirted and might push last year's surprisingly efficient freshman starter, T.J. Yates, or Jamal Womble, a four-star kid out of Arizona Rivals rated as the 14th-best running back in this year's incoming class. The skill positions for at least the next three years will be two and three-deep with VHTs, and that doesn't include the known quantities, Nicks and Tate, who were much less heralded.
That's Mister Marvin Austin, to quarterbacks.
- - -
But even those numbers don't match the efforts of underclassmen on the defense, where half of the team's top dozen tacklers were freshmen, four of them true freshmen. The secondary was three-fourths freshman in November, four-fifths went it went nickel. The focus this offseason will be largely on the loss of Kentwan Balmer, Hilee Taylor and Durell Mapp, three seniors who were unquestionably the team's best players in the front seven (all three were second team all-ACC; Balmer might be a first round pick in April). But their replacements were already in the lineup at the end of the year: true freshmen Bruce Carter and Quan Sturdivant closed as the starting outside linebackers, and all-world recruit Marvin Austin, technically a backup on a deep defensive line, was frequently a terror (six tackles for loss, including four sacks) at end and tackle. If hyped redshirt Tydreke Powell can work his way into the lineup alongside Austin, E.J. Wilson, Cam Thomas and Aleric Mullins - all sophomores and juniors this year, all well-regarded prospects with significant playing time - "talent" will not begin to apply as an excuse for ongoing mediocrity. Surprising Wins, Close Losses, and Other Circumstantial Momentum. As far as wins go, Carolina last year managed only one agaist an eventual bowl team, a three-point win over Maryland. Its only really impressive performance was in the first half against Davis' old team, when the Heels had Miami down 27-0 at the break. They proceeded to be outscored 27-6 in the second half, but a win is a win. There is something to be said for the effort in very close, very winnable games that got away against Virginia (22-20), South Carolina (21-16) and Georgia Tech (28-25), even to East Carolina (34-31 on a last second field goal), but UNC is still very much in the "turn close losses into close wins" phase.
Where They're Going. In 2008, probably no further than .500-ish record and a middling bowl game; any suggestion of a sudden, Illinois-like jump in the short term would be fairly ridiculous. In the long term, though, there's no definite ceiling. Mack Brown made Carolina an ACC power in the mid-nineties second only to the unstoppable Florida State behemoth in that decade, and no such hegemon exists in the current ACC. Davis has a great track record in college, has landed a couple big names and has already begun branching out for better talent. His window isn't very wide if the Heels are going to be better than mediocre, with Clemson back on the upswing, Al Groh hunkering down at Virginia, FSU and Miami perpetually locking down the most talent-rich state in the conference and Virginia Tech just being stodgy, consistent, badass Virginia Tech. Davis has to be able to sell the "upward mobility" angle as long as possible, and a failure to demonstrate that on the field - I think bowl-eligibility is a must to sustain a tangible sense of momentum - will turn future Greg Littles and Marvin Austins away. I'd bet on competitive mediocrity and an upset or two. Or bust.
Teams on the rise sooner, not later.
- - -
Where They've Been. John Bunting was probably doomed in 2003, off back-to-back 3-9 and 2-10 years, and who knows how far his tortured stay through 2006 set the program back. If only UNC hadn't stunned Miami in 2004, it would have missed another bowl game and probably gotten on with the rebuilding job in 2005. Who could the Heels have landed in `05 - probably not Les Miles, given his destination, or Steve Spurrier, given his alma mater, but Ty Willingham, maybe? Greg Robinson? Dave Wannstedt? Walt Harris? Ron Zook? Er.
Actually, maybe it's better in the long run that the bowl bid bought Bunting another year, and that going 5-6 in '05 bought him another year, somehow, and that the team's horriffic start in 2006 bought him a ticket on the next train at midseason. The head start in the hiring process led Carolina to the best available change agent...
Catalysts. All optimism re: UNC is tied at its core to Butch Davis, and specifically an encore of the resuscitation he engineered at probation-racked Miami in the late nineties. The steady decline and eventual collapse of the Coker era at the U was further proof that the 2001 mythical championship team was really Davis' baby, and the `02 team that came within a pass interference penalty of repeating, too (totally legit call, `Canes fans. Sorry). Carolina's kitchen was a whole different kind of mess, off four losing seasons in five years, three of them with three wins or less, and a cupboard practically bare of competitive talent. It's a full-scale remodeling job.
Davis' first team was only 4-8, 3-5 in the ACC, a very Bunting-like result. So if you think the Heels are going anywhere, the foundation of that premise has to be Butch's history of success in Miami.
Youth Movement. You can make a very, very long list chronicling the contributions made by freshmen - mostly true freshmen - and sophomores to last year's effort. Or you can condense it:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">Underclassman Contributions, 2007</caption> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(161, 183, 244) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Offense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Rush Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Rec. Yds.</td> <td align="center">% of Scoring</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">87</td> <td align="center">20</td> <td align="center">31</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">46</td> <td align="center">17</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">101</td> <td align="center">99</td> <td align="center">68</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(161, 183, 244) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="center">Defense</td> <td align="center">Starters</td> <td align="center">% of Tackles</td> <td align="center">% of Sacks/TFL</td> <td align="center">% of Miscellaneous</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Freshmen</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">37</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">38</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right">Sophomores</td> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">21</td> <td align="center">18</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="background: rgb(234, 234, 234) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td align="right">Returning in '08</td> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">68</td> <td align="center">57</td> <td align="center">73</td> </tr> </tbody></table> All of the departing points were via the leg of Connor Barth. The losses on offense amount to the center and Nebraska refugee Joe Dailey, an occasional contributor at receiver after a predictably dismal junior year in and out of the quarterback spot in 2006. These are also the two who combined for -7 yards on two carries last year, the totality of the -1 percent of the rushing offense attributed to departing seniors. The stars of the offense were receivers Hakeem Nicks, an all-ACC pick as a sophomore, and junior Brandon Tate, who contributed as much as a kick returner as he did as a receiver en route to leading the conference in all-purpose yards. That may change as hyped `07 recruits Greg Little and Zack Pianalto command more attention, as they did over the last month of their freshman campaign: Pianalto grabbed 15 of his 24 receptions in the last five games, and Little, listed as a receiver, popped off for 89 yards as a full-time running back against Georgia Tech and 154 against Duke in the last two games. That was UNC's only individual 100-yard rushing game of the season, but two other freshmen (Johnny White and Anthony Elzy) had 90-yard games earlier in the year. It's a good bet with Little's addition that contingent won't finish 107th in rushing again.
That's not to mention another top 25 running back recruit, Ryan Houston, who was a major part of the rotation in the toughest stretch of the season (42 of Houston's 44 carries were against South Florida, Virginia Tech, Miami, South Carolina and Wake Forest), or Mike Paulus, a top ten quarterback prospect who redshirted and might push last year's surprisingly efficient freshman starter, T.J. Yates, or Jamal Womble, a four-star kid out of Arizona Rivals rated as the 14th-best running back in this year's incoming class. The skill positions for at least the next three years will be two and three-deep with VHTs, and that doesn't include the known quantities, Nicks and Tate, who were much less heralded.
That's Mister Marvin Austin, to quarterbacks.
- - -
But even those numbers don't match the efforts of underclassmen on the defense, where half of the team's top dozen tacklers were freshmen, four of them true freshmen. The secondary was three-fourths freshman in November, four-fifths went it went nickel. The focus this offseason will be largely on the loss of Kentwan Balmer, Hilee Taylor and Durell Mapp, three seniors who were unquestionably the team's best players in the front seven (all three were second team all-ACC; Balmer might be a first round pick in April). But their replacements were already in the lineup at the end of the year: true freshmen Bruce Carter and Quan Sturdivant closed as the starting outside linebackers, and all-world recruit Marvin Austin, technically a backup on a deep defensive line, was frequently a terror (six tackles for loss, including four sacks) at end and tackle. If hyped redshirt Tydreke Powell can work his way into the lineup alongside Austin, E.J. Wilson, Cam Thomas and Aleric Mullins - all sophomores and juniors this year, all well-regarded prospects with significant playing time - "talent" will not begin to apply as an excuse for ongoing mediocrity. Surprising Wins, Close Losses, and Other Circumstantial Momentum. As far as wins go, Carolina last year managed only one agaist an eventual bowl team, a three-point win over Maryland. Its only really impressive performance was in the first half against Davis' old team, when the Heels had Miami down 27-0 at the break. They proceeded to be outscored 27-6 in the second half, but a win is a win. There is something to be said for the effort in very close, very winnable games that got away against Virginia (22-20), South Carolina (21-16) and Georgia Tech (28-25), even to East Carolina (34-31 on a last second field goal), but UNC is still very much in the "turn close losses into close wins" phase.
Where They're Going. In 2008, probably no further than .500-ish record and a middling bowl game; any suggestion of a sudden, Illinois-like jump in the short term would be fairly ridiculous. In the long term, though, there's no definite ceiling. Mack Brown made Carolina an ACC power in the mid-nineties second only to the unstoppable Florida State behemoth in that decade, and no such hegemon exists in the current ACC. Davis has a great track record in college, has landed a couple big names and has already begun branching out for better talent. His window isn't very wide if the Heels are going to be better than mediocre, with Clemson back on the upswing, Al Groh hunkering down at Virginia, FSU and Miami perpetually locking down the most talent-rich state in the conference and Virginia Tech just being stodgy, consistent, badass Virginia Tech. Davis has to be able to sell the "upward mobility" angle as long as possible, and a failure to demonstrate that on the field - I think bowl-eligibility is a must to sustain a tangible sense of momentum - will turn future Greg Littles and Marvin Austins away. I'd bet on competitive mediocrity and an upset or two. Or bust.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Road to Recovery: Alabama
by SMQ on Feb 29, 2008 1:46 PM EST in News
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
Alabama is in a different position than most programs in this series because it's not at rockbottom. Unlike Nebraska, Miami, Syracuse and Washington, the last 3-5 years have not yielded unrelenting pain - the Tide has been to four straight bowl games and had 10-win seasons in 2002 and 2005. It's not at the level of black hole misery endured last year by the Irish, Huskers, Canes, etc.
`Bama's sustained fade since Gene Stallings' retirement after the `96 season is obvious enough, but to illustrate the depth of the decline, we'll focus on its reality within the SEC:
There is no way any modern team can hold itself to the near-90 percent standard Bear Bryant's seventies juggernaut achieved in conference games, but even in the fall from that peak, the Tide was second in the SEC in win percentage in the eighties and an impressive third in the nineties (the only teams better were Florida and Tennessee across the aisle) even if you include five forfeited wins in 1993 as losses. Since its last conference championship in 1999, though, Alabama is tied for seventh in SEC games, with South Carolina, and has won the West only once (in a probation year at that, allowing runner-up Arkansas to play in the SEC Champioship in 2002). Within the division, LSU, Auburn and Arkansas have all been better, the first two substantially so.
From that perspective, under the sway of a new, high-powered coach, maybe going 4-4 last year puts the Tide on the "road to recovery" already. As long as they're willing to overlook two straight losses to Mississippi State, five straight to LSU and six straight to, well, obviously.
What Went Wrong: The month of November, basically, though it's hard to pinpoint any specific area in which Alabama was really, consistently bad. It was a mix `n match failure: seven sacks allowed to LSU, resulting in 20 yards net rushing and the game-losing fumble; a pair of killer interceptions at Mississippi State, one negating a long drive by the Tide offense to go ahead by two scores entering the half and ending as a go-ahead touchdown for MSU the other way; two more interceptions against UL-Monroe, one setting up a one-yard War Hawk touchdown "drive," and another pair of fumbles, one killing a long march into ULM territory, resulting in this...
...as well as a helpful note from ESPN.com reminding readers that, since 1999, Alabama has lost at home to Louisiana Tech, Central Florida, Northern Illinois and, obviously, UL-Monroe (Southern Miss' 21-0 win in Birmingham in 2000 must fall into a lesser category of shame).
Nothing in the way of turnovers or fortune went spectacularly wrong in the loss at Auburn (fourth straight in the month, sixth straight in the series), which is part of what made it the most disappointing: there was no spate of interceptions or drive-killing fumbles to undermine the offense's success, just a complete lack of success to begin with. `Bama had zero runs over ten yards and zero passes over twenty. John Parker Wilson completed fewer than half of his passes, was sacked twice and left with the second-worst passer rating of his two-year starting career (only Mississippi State two weeks earlier was worse). The Tigers only had to bite a 10-point lead and hold it.
What Went At Least Moderately Right: Wilson showed some real spark before the closing nose dive, leading the last-second comeback to beat Arkansas and pulling the same trick to push Georgia to overtime the next week (he threw two fourth quarter touchdowns in a failed rally against Florida State the week after that), and later delivered a near-flawless performance that gutted Tennessee: 32-46, 363 yards, three touchdowns. Overall, the defense was just okay, but never had a real cover-your-eyes sort of meltdown. Its worst performances, statistically, were against Arkansas (bailed out by the offense; see above) and LSU (nearly bailed out by offense and LSU turnovers). In the worst of the year-end slide, the defense actually played very well - just 215 yards allowed to MSU, 282 to Monroe and 282 to Auburn.
Changes, Building Blocks and Other Signs of <strike>Cautious</strike> Rabid Optimism: There's always something - just when Saban Mania ebbs under the weight of its own expense, he hustles his way into the top-ranked recruiting class in the country, one featuring the most highly-sought receiver in the nation, a quarterback already named "Star" and, according to the calculations of Rivals.com, as many sub-4.5 40 times as the outgoing running back class at last week's NFL combine. Alabama never had anything approaching a top ten recruiting class under Mike Shula, or even top 20, depending on who you ask - Phil Steele ranked Shula's classes begining in 2003 at 24, 20, NR and 16.
Obstacles: The top contributors of the 2004 class (D.J. Hall, Simeon Castille, Ezekiel Knight) have graduated and most of the best players of the 2005 `NR' class (Mike Ford, Brandon Fanney, Chris Keys, Roy Upchurch, Prince Hall) are either off the team or languishing somewhere in the little-seen crevaces of the depth chart. `Bama wasn't landing top tier recruits before Saban rode in last year, and of those it did bag, the only one who's lived up to his stud projection is Andre Smith. The best of Shula's crews otherwise are just serviceable starters, guys like Wilson and Antoine Caldwell. The roster next year will have experience and talent, but they'll be mutually exclusive features until Saban's li'l killers get a little fuzz on their faces. (That is, assuming Saban figures some way to fit them all into an overflowing locker room).
Target Date For Resumption of Glory: There are the usual SEC heavies (this year, that's Georgia and Tennessee, maybe Arkansas, with Clemson offering a nice out-of-coference opener in Atlanta), but the Crimson Tide can never be the Crimson Tide again from any outside perspective until it becomes a player in its own division, the one it owned for the first five years of its existence. That means breaking the stranglehold of LSU and Auburn, and that means actually beating LSU and Auburn - again, `Bama has lost eleven straight in those two series and 14 of 16 this decade. Before last year, the Tigers and Tigers were back-to-back at the end of the schedule every year, and every year the Tide has entered the closing stretch with high stakes that don't survive to the other side. I thought last year's game with No. 1 LSU was Alabama's chance to prove its resurgence; instead, it was the beginning of a four-game losing streak that wiped the fairy dust from a 6-2 honeymoon. After all the Saban hype, the persistence of mediocrity hit that much harder.
If rivals can kill a season, it works both ways: even if the Tide is in no position to wrest control of the division away in the final three weeks (which is not likely), it will have the chance against LSU and Auburn to reassert itself as an equal, move on to a January bowl game and hit the offseason with that awesome freshman class looking 20 pounds heavier and battle-tested. It will take at least a split against the division bosses to ensure that air of inevitable upward mometum carries over into 2009, when expectations can reasonably follow. Until that happens, though, this...
...will never mean anything against this:
<object height="305" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2G3yIIJPGFM" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="345"></object></p>
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
Alabama is in a different position than most programs in this series because it's not at rockbottom. Unlike Nebraska, Miami, Syracuse and Washington, the last 3-5 years have not yielded unrelenting pain - the Tide has been to four straight bowl games and had 10-win seasons in 2002 and 2005. It's not at the level of black hole misery endured last year by the Irish, Huskers, Canes, etc.
`Bama's sustained fade since Gene Stallings' retirement after the `96 season is obvious enough, but to illustrate the depth of the decline, we'll focus on its reality within the SEC:
There is no way any modern team can hold itself to the near-90 percent standard Bear Bryant's seventies juggernaut achieved in conference games, but even in the fall from that peak, the Tide was second in the SEC in win percentage in the eighties and an impressive third in the nineties (the only teams better were Florida and Tennessee across the aisle) even if you include five forfeited wins in 1993 as losses. Since its last conference championship in 1999, though, Alabama is tied for seventh in SEC games, with South Carolina, and has won the West only once (in a probation year at that, allowing runner-up Arkansas to play in the SEC Champioship in 2002). Within the division, LSU, Auburn and Arkansas have all been better, the first two substantially so.
From that perspective, under the sway of a new, high-powered coach, maybe going 4-4 last year puts the Tide on the "road to recovery" already. As long as they're willing to overlook two straight losses to Mississippi State, five straight to LSU and six straight to, well, obviously.
What Went Wrong: The month of November, basically, though it's hard to pinpoint any specific area in which Alabama was really, consistently bad. It was a mix `n match failure: seven sacks allowed to LSU, resulting in 20 yards net rushing and the game-losing fumble; a pair of killer interceptions at Mississippi State, one negating a long drive by the Tide offense to go ahead by two scores entering the half and ending as a go-ahead touchdown for MSU the other way; two more interceptions against UL-Monroe, one setting up a one-yard War Hawk touchdown "drive," and another pair of fumbles, one killing a long march into ULM territory, resulting in this...
...as well as a helpful note from ESPN.com reminding readers that, since 1999, Alabama has lost at home to Louisiana Tech, Central Florida, Northern Illinois and, obviously, UL-Monroe (Southern Miss' 21-0 win in Birmingham in 2000 must fall into a lesser category of shame).
Nothing in the way of turnovers or fortune went spectacularly wrong in the loss at Auburn (fourth straight in the month, sixth straight in the series), which is part of what made it the most disappointing: there was no spate of interceptions or drive-killing fumbles to undermine the offense's success, just a complete lack of success to begin with. `Bama had zero runs over ten yards and zero passes over twenty. John Parker Wilson completed fewer than half of his passes, was sacked twice and left with the second-worst passer rating of his two-year starting career (only Mississippi State two weeks earlier was worse). The Tigers only had to bite a 10-point lead and hold it.
What Went At Least Moderately Right: Wilson showed some real spark before the closing nose dive, leading the last-second comeback to beat Arkansas and pulling the same trick to push Georgia to overtime the next week (he threw two fourth quarter touchdowns in a failed rally against Florida State the week after that), and later delivered a near-flawless performance that gutted Tennessee: 32-46, 363 yards, three touchdowns. Overall, the defense was just okay, but never had a real cover-your-eyes sort of meltdown. Its worst performances, statistically, were against Arkansas (bailed out by the offense; see above) and LSU (nearly bailed out by offense and LSU turnovers). In the worst of the year-end slide, the defense actually played very well - just 215 yards allowed to MSU, 282 to Monroe and 282 to Auburn.
Changes, Building Blocks and Other Signs of <strike>Cautious</strike> Rabid Optimism: There's always something - just when Saban Mania ebbs under the weight of its own expense, he hustles his way into the top-ranked recruiting class in the country, one featuring the most highly-sought receiver in the nation, a quarterback already named "Star" and, according to the calculations of Rivals.com, as many sub-4.5 40 times as the outgoing running back class at last week's NFL combine. Alabama never had anything approaching a top ten recruiting class under Mike Shula, or even top 20, depending on who you ask - Phil Steele ranked Shula's classes begining in 2003 at 24, 20, NR and 16.
Obstacles: The top contributors of the 2004 class (D.J. Hall, Simeon Castille, Ezekiel Knight) have graduated and most of the best players of the 2005 `NR' class (Mike Ford, Brandon Fanney, Chris Keys, Roy Upchurch, Prince Hall) are either off the team or languishing somewhere in the little-seen crevaces of the depth chart. `Bama wasn't landing top tier recruits before Saban rode in last year, and of those it did bag, the only one who's lived up to his stud projection is Andre Smith. The best of Shula's crews otherwise are just serviceable starters, guys like Wilson and Antoine Caldwell. The roster next year will have experience and talent, but they'll be mutually exclusive features until Saban's li'l killers get a little fuzz on their faces. (That is, assuming Saban figures some way to fit them all into an overflowing locker room).
Target Date For Resumption of Glory: There are the usual SEC heavies (this year, that's Georgia and Tennessee, maybe Arkansas, with Clemson offering a nice out-of-coference opener in Atlanta), but the Crimson Tide can never be the Crimson Tide again from any outside perspective until it becomes a player in its own division, the one it owned for the first five years of its existence. That means breaking the stranglehold of LSU and Auburn, and that means actually beating LSU and Auburn - again, `Bama has lost eleven straight in those two series and 14 of 16 this decade. Before last year, the Tigers and Tigers were back-to-back at the end of the schedule every year, and every year the Tide has entered the closing stretch with high stakes that don't survive to the other side. I thought last year's game with No. 1 LSU was Alabama's chance to prove its resurgence; instead, it was the beginning of a four-game losing streak that wiped the fairy dust from a 6-2 honeymoon. After all the Saban hype, the persistence of mediocrity hit that much harder.
If rivals can kill a season, it works both ways: even if the Tide is in no position to wrest control of the division away in the final three weeks (which is not likely), it will have the chance against LSU and Auburn to reassert itself as an equal, move on to a January bowl game and hit the offseason with that awesome freshman class looking 20 pounds heavier and battle-tested. It will take at least a split against the division bosses to ensure that air of inevitable upward mometum carries over into 2009, when expectations can reasonably follow. Until that happens, though, this...
...will never mean anything against this:
<object height="305" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2G3yIIJPGFM" wmode="transparent" height="305" width="345"></object></p>
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Road to Recovery: Washington
by SMQ on Feb 18, 2008 1:49 PM EST in News
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
Nationally, aside from its obviously dominant teams from 1990-92, Washington probably doesn't get its due as a consistent power over the last quarter century. Under three different head coaches from 1975-2002, in fact, the Huskies were the best program in the Pac Ten by a decent margin, won eight conference championships and had 26 straight winning seasons. The post-Neuheislian malaise, though, has been a cruel, bitter pill:
"Improvement" has been the buzz from the moment Ty Willingham was hired, and it hasn't been confined to the Seattle faithful clinging to their latte macchiatos (light on the foam): a very willing national media briefly ranked the Huskies in the top 25 after a 4-1 start in 2006 and a 2-0 start last year. From there, they lost six straight and nine of eleven, respectively, and wealthy alums were offering to create scholarships in honor of Willingham's termination.
What Went Wrong: Anything involving an airborne ball last year was likely to end in disaster, whether it was leaving the supercharged but erratic right arm of Jake Locker or against the equally inconsistent coverage of the Husky secondary. Locker had easily the worst completion percentage among regular Pac Ten starters and the next-to-worst pass efficiency rating; no quarterback in the NCAA's top 100 in efficiency finished below a 52 percent completion rate, where Locker (nowhere near the top 100) completed just a little over 47 percent. After an opening cake walk at Syracuse, he threw at least one interception in every game he finished except one, in which the redshirt freshman was 6 of 14 for 16 yards and had to leave the game against Oregon State.
On the other side, U-Dub was the bottom-feeding unit in the conference across the board: tenth in rush defense, tenth in pass efficiency defense, tenth in total defense. Only the generosity of Washington State's D kept the Huskies out of tenth in scoring defense, too, and that didn't stop Alex Brink from throwing five touchdown passes and bringing WSU from behind to win a predictably pinball-ish Apple Cup, 42-35. Washington played six games in `07 against ranked opponents, and those offenses averaged 260 rushing on 5.7 per carry, a lot of that coming from a single, devastating afternoon by the pre-Dixon injury Oregon machine: 62 carries, 465 yards, six touchdowns. Even aside from that disaster, though, the only teams that encountered any kind of trouble moving the ball on Washington were Syracuse and Stanford.
Yes! Don't think! Just run, you thoroughbred bastard!
- - -
What Went At Least Moderately Right: Unreliable as he was as a passer, Locker was a beast of a read option runner, accounting for over 1,100 yards before sacks despite missing a full game and a half. Louis Rankin's 1,300 yards are a little misleading (he had four huge games against terrible defenses amid twice as many mediocre days against tougher opposition) and he's graduating, anyway, but given the nondescript stagnation of the running game since the 2000 Rose Bowl season, Locker's entry to the equation was a significant boost - "one-dimensional," after all, is better than "no dimensional." The "tougher opposition" also shouldn't be discounted: few offenses of any variety were successful against Boise State, Ohio State, UCLA, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State, all of which finished in the top 30 nationally in total defense. Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: Locker looks and runs like Tim Tebow and has the arm to be this year's version of Juice Williams, another athletic, subpar passer who advanced from raw meat in the pocket as a freshman to a competent, somewhat balanced quarterback whose team wound up in the Rose Bowl as a sophomore. When you can really run in a system designed to exploit that ability for all it's worth, the passing only has to be good enough that it's not a liability. There is nothing physically keeping Locker from making that progression. Don't get carried away by the "Rose Bowl" part of that comparison (Washington was not nearly as close to a breakout season last year as Illinois was in 2006) but also know that every overworked defensive coordinator in the Pac Ten wakes up after collapsing on his desk at night with "No. 10" stained on his face and brain. All the other skill talent will be new, so this team's immediate hopes read Locker, Locker, Locker.
Obstacles: Again, all the other skill talent will be new, along with three-fourths of the secondary before the rest of the defense's ongoing incompetence comes into play. And, what, you were expecting a break in the nation's most brutal schedule? The 2008 slate throws BYU, Oklahoma and rebuilding but talent-soaked Notre Dame into the mix. This is Ty's make-or-break year, and even an optimistic team will go into the season expecting ot be the underdog in eight of its first ten games.
Target Date For Resumption of Glory: Again, Willingham has no grace period. By the start of November, if there is any hope, his team should be in the 4-3/3-4 range with a visit to USC standing as the pivot of the season. It won't be so much about winning that game - close calls the last two years notwithstanding, forecasting a Husky win in L.A. is out of the question - as it will be putting up a fight and building momentum for the mandatory bowl push over the last four games, which are all winnable. Come out of `08 strong, and the immediate future with one of the best all-purpose quarterbacks in the country is bright. Fizzle down the stretch for the third year in a row, and 2009 is just another rebuilding year under a new regime.
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
Nationally, aside from its obviously dominant teams from 1990-92, Washington probably doesn't get its due as a consistent power over the last quarter century. Under three different head coaches from 1975-2002, in fact, the Huskies were the best program in the Pac Ten by a decent margin, won eight conference championships and had 26 straight winning seasons. The post-Neuheislian malaise, though, has been a cruel, bitter pill:
"Improvement" has been the buzz from the moment Ty Willingham was hired, and it hasn't been confined to the Seattle faithful clinging to their latte macchiatos (light on the foam): a very willing national media briefly ranked the Huskies in the top 25 after a 4-1 start in 2006 and a 2-0 start last year. From there, they lost six straight and nine of eleven, respectively, and wealthy alums were offering to create scholarships in honor of Willingham's termination.
What Went Wrong: Anything involving an airborne ball last year was likely to end in disaster, whether it was leaving the supercharged but erratic right arm of Jake Locker or against the equally inconsistent coverage of the Husky secondary. Locker had easily the worst completion percentage among regular Pac Ten starters and the next-to-worst pass efficiency rating; no quarterback in the NCAA's top 100 in efficiency finished below a 52 percent completion rate, where Locker (nowhere near the top 100) completed just a little over 47 percent. After an opening cake walk at Syracuse, he threw at least one interception in every game he finished except one, in which the redshirt freshman was 6 of 14 for 16 yards and had to leave the game against Oregon State.
On the other side, U-Dub was the bottom-feeding unit in the conference across the board: tenth in rush defense, tenth in pass efficiency defense, tenth in total defense. Only the generosity of Washington State's D kept the Huskies out of tenth in scoring defense, too, and that didn't stop Alex Brink from throwing five touchdown passes and bringing WSU from behind to win a predictably pinball-ish Apple Cup, 42-35. Washington played six games in `07 against ranked opponents, and those offenses averaged 260 rushing on 5.7 per carry, a lot of that coming from a single, devastating afternoon by the pre-Dixon injury Oregon machine: 62 carries, 465 yards, six touchdowns. Even aside from that disaster, though, the only teams that encountered any kind of trouble moving the ball on Washington were Syracuse and Stanford.
Yes! Don't think! Just run, you thoroughbred bastard!
- - -
What Went At Least Moderately Right: Unreliable as he was as a passer, Locker was a beast of a read option runner, accounting for over 1,100 yards before sacks despite missing a full game and a half. Louis Rankin's 1,300 yards are a little misleading (he had four huge games against terrible defenses amid twice as many mediocre days against tougher opposition) and he's graduating, anyway, but given the nondescript stagnation of the running game since the 2000 Rose Bowl season, Locker's entry to the equation was a significant boost - "one-dimensional," after all, is better than "no dimensional." The "tougher opposition" also shouldn't be discounted: few offenses of any variety were successful against Boise State, Ohio State, UCLA, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State, all of which finished in the top 30 nationally in total defense. Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: Locker looks and runs like Tim Tebow and has the arm to be this year's version of Juice Williams, another athletic, subpar passer who advanced from raw meat in the pocket as a freshman to a competent, somewhat balanced quarterback whose team wound up in the Rose Bowl as a sophomore. When you can really run in a system designed to exploit that ability for all it's worth, the passing only has to be good enough that it's not a liability. There is nothing physically keeping Locker from making that progression. Don't get carried away by the "Rose Bowl" part of that comparison (Washington was not nearly as close to a breakout season last year as Illinois was in 2006) but also know that every overworked defensive coordinator in the Pac Ten wakes up after collapsing on his desk at night with "No. 10" stained on his face and brain. All the other skill talent will be new, so this team's immediate hopes read Locker, Locker, Locker.
Obstacles: Again, all the other skill talent will be new, along with three-fourths of the secondary before the rest of the defense's ongoing incompetence comes into play. And, what, you were expecting a break in the nation's most brutal schedule? The 2008 slate throws BYU, Oklahoma and rebuilding but talent-soaked Notre Dame into the mix. This is Ty's make-or-break year, and even an optimistic team will go into the season expecting ot be the underdog in eight of its first ten games.
Target Date For Resumption of Glory: Again, Willingham has no grace period. By the start of November, if there is any hope, his team should be in the 4-3/3-4 range with a visit to USC standing as the pivot of the season. It won't be so much about winning that game - close calls the last two years notwithstanding, forecasting a Husky win in L.A. is out of the question - as it will be putting up a fight and building momentum for the mandatory bowl push over the last four games, which are all winnable. Come out of `08 strong, and the immediate future with one of the best all-purpose quarterbacks in the country is bright. Fizzle down the stretch for the third year in a row, and 2009 is just another rebuilding year under a new regime.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Road to Recovery: Syracuse
by SMQ on Feb 12, 2008 3:53 PM EST in News
<strike>Great</strike> Good programs on hard times.
- - -
Looking closely at Syracuse the last three years, not only do I find it hard to believe Greg Robinson's seat isn't any hotter than this, but given the amount of money Syracuse has shilled out for back-to-back-to-back last place finishes in the Big East, I can't begin to account for the fact that Robinson is still in charge of the self-respecting progenator of Jim Brown, Ernie Davis and Donovan McNabb at all.
The difference from the Dick MacPherson and Paul Pasqualoni eras is probably wider than the straight winning percentage shows: in the decade following the 11-0-1 season in 1987, the Orange<strike>men</strike> won at least nine games six times and were Big East champions three years running with Miami on the skids from 1995-97. From 1983-2004, 22 years, 'Cuse endured all of two losing seasons, and didn't come close to falling under .500 in the nineties. After Miami and Virginia Tech defected to the ACC, Syracuse was in the best position along with West Virginia to fill the conference power vaccum; despite the bleh 6-6 overall record, Pasqualoni's last team had actually finished in a four-way tie for the league title in 2004. Into that, Robinson's first three teams are 2-19 in-conference and have ceded upward momentum to the C-USA contingent that was supposed to threaten the Big East's BCS standing. Syracuse has been easily the worst major conference program in the nation.
What Went Wrong: I'm trying to find some way to hyperbolize the across-the-board badness here, but short of entering "Aristocrats" territory, it's hard to overstate the point (family members: do not click that link). Among what I think of as the "Big Eight" stat categories (rush, pass efficiency, total and scoring offense/defense), Syracuse was in the bottom 10-15 nationally last year in every one except pass efficiency offense; 'Cuse has spent the last three finishing last or next-to-last in the Big East in all of them except passing offense, which reflects its need to throw its way out of big deficits at least as much as any proficiency through the air. Put it this way: Syracuse played three different games last year in which it allowed a single run better than its entire rushing total for the day, and that doesn't even include its 103-yard, 5-first down embarrassment at Iowa.
For the record, its finishes last year of eighth (last) in the Big East and 100th or worse nationally: rushing offense, total offense, total offense, scoring offense, rushing defense, total defense, scoring defense, pass defense, sacks and sacks allowed. Honorary members are pass efficiency defense (only 7th in-conference but 109th nationally) and turnover margin (worst in the Big East but only 96th nationwide). None of this is anomalous.
Picture, thousand words. Also, a little white is an effective buffer. Just FYI.
- - -
What Went At Least Moderately Right: The inexplicable upset of Louisville is the only completely positive moment to date of the Robinson administration, one of very few existing pieces of evidence the Orange<strike>men</strike> are still capable of a pulse, and even that against a disappointing team in the middle of an epic defensive slide. Other than that, though, there's like kick returns - true freshman Max Suter brought one back for a touchdown against the Cardinals and was the only first-team all-Big East pick - and lame moral victories you'd probably have to troll an enthusiastic Syracuse message board to find. Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: When he was protected (which was rare - only Notre Dame and Arizona State allowed more sacks), sophomore quarterback Andrew Robinson wasn't nearly as bad for a first-year starter as the rest of the team. He was terrific in the back-and-forth shootouts against Louisville (17-26, 423 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) and Cincinnati (29-47, 419, 3 TD, 0 INT) and only thew seven picks all year, a good sign for his potential as a competent "game manager" type, if nothing else. As ragtag and often untenable as the running game was, it was missing `06 leader Delone Carter all year and No. 2 back Curtis Brinkley for the last third. Mike Williams is a legit talent at receiver and tore through the last five games: 31 catches for 364 yards in November alone, and a touchdown in each of the last nine. If the offensive line holds up at all, the now not-so-young skill talent is probably good enough to challenge for a bowl game on its own merits; to this end, Robinson ditched offensive coordinator Brian White for one of his old players, Mitch Browning, who orchestrated Glen Mason's offense at Kansas and the zone-blocking scheme that wreaked havoc on Big Ten fronts at Minnesota. Now if he can get his hands on Marion Barber or Laurence Maroney...
Obstacles: When they've been as unsuccessful as this group has been, the losses don't sting much, but then again, the three departing offensive line starters were never unseated by the guys filling their shoes, either. The defenses loses three of four starters in the secondary and its three best players over the last two years, Dowayne Davis, Joe Fields and Jameel McClain.
Target Date For Resumption of <strike>Glory</strike> Functional Competence: The best thing that could happen for Robinson's job security and the team's morale is a win at Northwestern to open the season in August, but that won't change SU's de facto underdog status in all seven conference games. The real test for optimism coming off another mediocre-at-best effort, and maybe to seal or extend Robinson's fate, in the Nov. 22 match against another rebuilding job, Notre Dame. 'Cuse temporarily salvaged Pasqualoni's job, and put Ty Willingham's over the fire, by trouncing ND in the Carrier Dome to close 2003; the return engagement will either have bowl implications, set the tone for a hopeful 2009 with most of the principles returning, or draw the curtain on the darkest days the Orange has known since it replaced its fine tradition of only tacitly racist warrior mascots with an amophous, flute-stealing Nerf ball.
<strike>Great</strike> Good programs on hard times.
- - -
Looking closely at Syracuse the last three years, not only do I find it hard to believe Greg Robinson's seat isn't any hotter than this, but given the amount of money Syracuse has shilled out for back-to-back-to-back last place finishes in the Big East, I can't begin to account for the fact that Robinson is still in charge of the self-respecting progenator of Jim Brown, Ernie Davis and Donovan McNabb at all.
The difference from the Dick MacPherson and Paul Pasqualoni eras is probably wider than the straight winning percentage shows: in the decade following the 11-0-1 season in 1987, the Orange<strike>men</strike> won at least nine games six times and were Big East champions three years running with Miami on the skids from 1995-97. From 1983-2004, 22 years, 'Cuse endured all of two losing seasons, and didn't come close to falling under .500 in the nineties. After Miami and Virginia Tech defected to the ACC, Syracuse was in the best position along with West Virginia to fill the conference power vaccum; despite the bleh 6-6 overall record, Pasqualoni's last team had actually finished in a four-way tie for the league title in 2004. Into that, Robinson's first three teams are 2-19 in-conference and have ceded upward momentum to the C-USA contingent that was supposed to threaten the Big East's BCS standing. Syracuse has been easily the worst major conference program in the nation.
What Went Wrong: I'm trying to find some way to hyperbolize the across-the-board badness here, but short of entering "Aristocrats" territory, it's hard to overstate the point (family members: do not click that link). Among what I think of as the "Big Eight" stat categories (rush, pass efficiency, total and scoring offense/defense), Syracuse was in the bottom 10-15 nationally last year in every one except pass efficiency offense; 'Cuse has spent the last three finishing last or next-to-last in the Big East in all of them except passing offense, which reflects its need to throw its way out of big deficits at least as much as any proficiency through the air. Put it this way: Syracuse played three different games last year in which it allowed a single run better than its entire rushing total for the day, and that doesn't even include its 103-yard, 5-first down embarrassment at Iowa.
For the record, its finishes last year of eighth (last) in the Big East and 100th or worse nationally: rushing offense, total offense, total offense, scoring offense, rushing defense, total defense, scoring defense, pass defense, sacks and sacks allowed. Honorary members are pass efficiency defense (only 7th in-conference but 109th nationally) and turnover margin (worst in the Big East but only 96th nationwide). None of this is anomalous.
Picture, thousand words. Also, a little white is an effective buffer. Just FYI.
- - -
What Went At Least Moderately Right: The inexplicable upset of Louisville is the only completely positive moment to date of the Robinson administration, one of very few existing pieces of evidence the Orange<strike>men</strike> are still capable of a pulse, and even that against a disappointing team in the middle of an epic defensive slide. Other than that, though, there's like kick returns - true freshman Max Suter brought one back for a touchdown against the Cardinals and was the only first-team all-Big East pick - and lame moral victories you'd probably have to troll an enthusiastic Syracuse message board to find. Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: When he was protected (which was rare - only Notre Dame and Arizona State allowed more sacks), sophomore quarterback Andrew Robinson wasn't nearly as bad for a first-year starter as the rest of the team. He was terrific in the back-and-forth shootouts against Louisville (17-26, 423 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) and Cincinnati (29-47, 419, 3 TD, 0 INT) and only thew seven picks all year, a good sign for his potential as a competent "game manager" type, if nothing else. As ragtag and often untenable as the running game was, it was missing `06 leader Delone Carter all year and No. 2 back Curtis Brinkley for the last third. Mike Williams is a legit talent at receiver and tore through the last five games: 31 catches for 364 yards in November alone, and a touchdown in each of the last nine. If the offensive line holds up at all, the now not-so-young skill talent is probably good enough to challenge for a bowl game on its own merits; to this end, Robinson ditched offensive coordinator Brian White for one of his old players, Mitch Browning, who orchestrated Glen Mason's offense at Kansas and the zone-blocking scheme that wreaked havoc on Big Ten fronts at Minnesota. Now if he can get his hands on Marion Barber or Laurence Maroney...
Obstacles: When they've been as unsuccessful as this group has been, the losses don't sting much, but then again, the three departing offensive line starters were never unseated by the guys filling their shoes, either. The defenses loses three of four starters in the secondary and its three best players over the last two years, Dowayne Davis, Joe Fields and Jameel McClain.
Target Date For Resumption of <strike>Glory</strike> Functional Competence: The best thing that could happen for Robinson's job security and the team's morale is a win at Northwestern to open the season in August, but that won't change SU's de facto underdog status in all seven conference games. The real test for optimism coming off another mediocre-at-best effort, and maybe to seal or extend Robinson's fate, in the Nov. 22 match against another rebuilding job, Notre Dame. 'Cuse temporarily salvaged Pasqualoni's job, and put Ty Willingham's over the fire, by trouncing ND in the Carrier Dome to close 2003; the return engagement will either have bowl implications, set the tone for a hopeful 2009 with most of the principles returning, or draw the curtain on the darkest days the Orange has known since it replaced its fine tradition of only tacitly racist warrior mascots with an amophous, flute-stealing Nerf ball.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Road to Recovery: Miami
by SMQ on Feb 5, 2008 9:14 AM EST in News
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
The scariest thought for Miami fans must be not that the 'Canes are in a trough since the run of dominance from 2000-04, but that, on the heels of another "trough" in the mid-to-late-nineties, that the top-end success over the first half of the decade is the anomaly in a long-term decline.
Miami is not a histortical power prior to the early eighties; since 1995, the trend points to mediocrity as norm as much as it does excellence.
What Went Wrong: Anything and everything related to the passing game, once a great strength at da U, now embodied in one of the most astonishing individual lines of the last two seasons, delivered by Kirby Freeman in the overtime loss to N.C. State:
1 of 14, 84 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
That game produced this hilarious message board post, got Freeman nailed to the bench for the rest of the season and a nice transfer letter when - according to plenty of rumors but no credible news sources - his scholarship was revoked. His completion percentage for the year: 31.03 (18 of 58) with six interceptions and a shameful rating of 64.49, which is low even under the NFL rating system. For some comparison for Freeman's badness, compare it to that of regular starter Kyle Wright, official bust, who was almost twice as efficient (124.21) despite lobbing up by far the worst interception rating of any full-time starter in the ACC. Here were two terrible, underachieving quarterbacks, who combined who combined to complete less than half of their passes for less than 100 yards in five different games, good enough (er, bad enough) to finish last or next-to-last in passing, scoring and total offense in the most offensively bereft conference in the country. If not for Wright's brilliant game against Texas A&M, it wouldn't have even seemed possible.
Wright and Freeman: Double trouble, for the wrong team.
- - -
Given the ongoing lack of firepower in the passing game, the running game can hardly be blamed for its mediocrity (65th in the nation in per game average on the ground was still good for third in the ACC, after all) but the receivers can take the heat for the depressing number of passes they allowed to clang to the ground for the second straight year. Nobody I'm aware of keeps track of drops, but anecdotally, the collection of Darnell Jenkins, Lance Leggett and Sam Shields must be the worst offenders anywhere; pray for any group that was somehow less adept at holding onto the ball. Receivers coach Marquis Mosley was sent packing last month, a thousand frustrated groans ringing in his ears. What's most disappointing about the Canes' abject failure to consistently complete passes is the high talent level: according to Phil Steele's aggregate position ratings, Kyle Wright was the No. 1 quarterback out of high school, Freeman No. 14, Leggett and Shields top 16 receivers, tight end Dajleon Farr No. 3 and Jenkins, the "diamond in the rough" of the group, No. 35, all behind an offensive line with three starters ranked in Steele's top six linemen out of high school. Struggling with Oklahoma and Virginia Tech is one thing, but there is no excuse for such consistent atrocity with that kind of bodily-kinesthetic wealth.
What Went At Least Moderately Right: Again, it helped to play in the offensively challenged ACC, but the defense was generally competent, at least enough to qualify for a rock bottom bowl game with just a little help from the other side. The run defense last year was as good statistically as the nine-win team in 2004 and the awesome near-mythical championship team in 2002, and roughly comparable to the transcendent 2001 team that dominated all comers. The front four was talented - not on the Russell Maryland/Cortex Kennedy/Warren Sapp/William Joseph/Kenard Lang/Jerome McDougal level, except for oft-double-teamed end Calais Campbell, but talented - and generally good at rushing the passer. Just good, though, and not good enough to overcome a secondary that didn't equal the sum of its parts.
Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: Randy Shannon is already on notice, and the combination of desperation and rejuvenation might work for a revamped team - there will be a new quarterback, mercifully, and even if Robert Marve isn't much more productive than the Wright/Freeman disaster of the last two years, he will at least be a young 'un on a presumably upward trajectory. The running backs, mainly Javarris James and Graig Cooper, were inconsistent but had no help from the passing game, are still in the "maturing" phase of their careers, too, and both look like they just need one good excuse to break out of the thankless ""move-the-chains" role. The defense has six new starters, which might be good overall despite the early exit of Campbell and fellow first rounder-to-be Kenny Phillips because five of those six are VHTs that provide, yes, the audacity of hope, if a paucity of actual experience. There must be a sense of urgency on Shannon's part that should trickle down, or another coaching search will commence quickly and the cycle begins anew with the outside hire UM allegedly wanted after it fired Larry Coker.
Dude, let go. I'm not coming back.
- - -
Obstacles: See the youth above, especially at quarterback, and on top of that the surprising inability to not only not return the freight train to the tracks after the gradual careening of the Coker era, but to somehow regress with losses to North Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech and a pathetic 48-0 blowout at the hands of lo-fi Virginia in the Orange Bowl finale, a disgrace to the great field and the program that did so much to put it on the map and a symptom of malaise that may be too entrenched under the current administration to root out before Shannon's time is up. An alarming though re: offensive coordinator Patrick Nix, who in the last two years has shepherded the ignominious senior efforts of Reggie Ball in 2006 and then Kyle Wright: on some level, what if it's Nix? Redshirtt freshmen quarterbacks are always a lot of fun, but somebody get Robert Marve a paper bag. Target Date For Reacquisition of Mojo: The general talent level is still well above average by ACC standards, but nothing but gloom awaits unless the incoming quarterback and the new starters on defense are "instant impact" kinda guys, which recent history suggests they will not be, at least not enough to make up for the loss of two likely first round picks that only buoyed the D to the higher end of mediocrity last year. There was nothing to suggest Miami was anything but just another 5-7 team that finished next-to-last in its conference (the only worse conference record in either division of the ACC was Duke's 0-8), and the next immediate step is just crawling back above .500. Given the performance here at the end of Coker's tenure, and that the same malaise rolled over to Shannon even as the latter endeavored to run a much tighter ship, the only really strong argument for anything better than a random December bowl game is something like, "This is Miami!" So the short-term prognosis is not particularly good.
The turning point is not likely to come this fall, then, when the first two games are at Florida and Texas A&M, both of which will be favored, and the first five ACC games are virtual toss-ups at best. The good news about playing in a conference with so much parity is that there need be no miracles - the upcoming season will be about establishing consistency and winning the majority of either/or conference games, then seeking a breakthrough at the start of 2009 against Oklahoma and South Florida.
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
The scariest thought for Miami fans must be not that the 'Canes are in a trough since the run of dominance from 2000-04, but that, on the heels of another "trough" in the mid-to-late-nineties, that the top-end success over the first half of the decade is the anomaly in a long-term decline.
Miami is not a histortical power prior to the early eighties; since 1995, the trend points to mediocrity as norm as much as it does excellence.
What Went Wrong: Anything and everything related to the passing game, once a great strength at da U, now embodied in one of the most astonishing individual lines of the last two seasons, delivered by Kirby Freeman in the overtime loss to N.C. State:
1 of 14, 84 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
That game produced this hilarious message board post, got Freeman nailed to the bench for the rest of the season and a nice transfer letter when - according to plenty of rumors but no credible news sources - his scholarship was revoked. His completion percentage for the year: 31.03 (18 of 58) with six interceptions and a shameful rating of 64.49, which is low even under the NFL rating system. For some comparison for Freeman's badness, compare it to that of regular starter Kyle Wright, official bust, who was almost twice as efficient (124.21) despite lobbing up by far the worst interception rating of any full-time starter in the ACC. Here were two terrible, underachieving quarterbacks, who combined who combined to complete less than half of their passes for less than 100 yards in five different games, good enough (er, bad enough) to finish last or next-to-last in passing, scoring and total offense in the most offensively bereft conference in the country. If not for Wright's brilliant game against Texas A&M, it wouldn't have even seemed possible.
Wright and Freeman: Double trouble, for the wrong team.
- - -
Given the ongoing lack of firepower in the passing game, the running game can hardly be blamed for its mediocrity (65th in the nation in per game average on the ground was still good for third in the ACC, after all) but the receivers can take the heat for the depressing number of passes they allowed to clang to the ground for the second straight year. Nobody I'm aware of keeps track of drops, but anecdotally, the collection of Darnell Jenkins, Lance Leggett and Sam Shields must be the worst offenders anywhere; pray for any group that was somehow less adept at holding onto the ball. Receivers coach Marquis Mosley was sent packing last month, a thousand frustrated groans ringing in his ears. What's most disappointing about the Canes' abject failure to consistently complete passes is the high talent level: according to Phil Steele's aggregate position ratings, Kyle Wright was the No. 1 quarterback out of high school, Freeman No. 14, Leggett and Shields top 16 receivers, tight end Dajleon Farr No. 3 and Jenkins, the "diamond in the rough" of the group, No. 35, all behind an offensive line with three starters ranked in Steele's top six linemen out of high school. Struggling with Oklahoma and Virginia Tech is one thing, but there is no excuse for such consistent atrocity with that kind of bodily-kinesthetic wealth.
What Went At Least Moderately Right: Again, it helped to play in the offensively challenged ACC, but the defense was generally competent, at least enough to qualify for a rock bottom bowl game with just a little help from the other side. The run defense last year was as good statistically as the nine-win team in 2004 and the awesome near-mythical championship team in 2002, and roughly comparable to the transcendent 2001 team that dominated all comers. The front four was talented - not on the Russell Maryland/Cortex Kennedy/Warren Sapp/William Joseph/Kenard Lang/Jerome McDougal level, except for oft-double-teamed end Calais Campbell, but talented - and generally good at rushing the passer. Just good, though, and not good enough to overcome a secondary that didn't equal the sum of its parts.
Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: Randy Shannon is already on notice, and the combination of desperation and rejuvenation might work for a revamped team - there will be a new quarterback, mercifully, and even if Robert Marve isn't much more productive than the Wright/Freeman disaster of the last two years, he will at least be a young 'un on a presumably upward trajectory. The running backs, mainly Javarris James and Graig Cooper, were inconsistent but had no help from the passing game, are still in the "maturing" phase of their careers, too, and both look like they just need one good excuse to break out of the thankless ""move-the-chains" role. The defense has six new starters, which might be good overall despite the early exit of Campbell and fellow first rounder-to-be Kenny Phillips because five of those six are VHTs that provide, yes, the audacity of hope, if a paucity of actual experience. There must be a sense of urgency on Shannon's part that should trickle down, or another coaching search will commence quickly and the cycle begins anew with the outside hire UM allegedly wanted after it fired Larry Coker.
Dude, let go. I'm not coming back.
- - -
Obstacles: See the youth above, especially at quarterback, and on top of that the surprising inability to not only not return the freight train to the tracks after the gradual careening of the Coker era, but to somehow regress with losses to North Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech and a pathetic 48-0 blowout at the hands of lo-fi Virginia in the Orange Bowl finale, a disgrace to the great field and the program that did so much to put it on the map and a symptom of malaise that may be too entrenched under the current administration to root out before Shannon's time is up. An alarming though re: offensive coordinator Patrick Nix, who in the last two years has shepherded the ignominious senior efforts of Reggie Ball in 2006 and then Kyle Wright: on some level, what if it's Nix? Redshirtt freshmen quarterbacks are always a lot of fun, but somebody get Robert Marve a paper bag. Target Date For Reacquisition of Mojo: The general talent level is still well above average by ACC standards, but nothing but gloom awaits unless the incoming quarterback and the new starters on defense are "instant impact" kinda guys, which recent history suggests they will not be, at least not enough to make up for the loss of two likely first round picks that only buoyed the D to the higher end of mediocrity last year. There was nothing to suggest Miami was anything but just another 5-7 team that finished next-to-last in its conference (the only worse conference record in either division of the ACC was Duke's 0-8), and the next immediate step is just crawling back above .500. Given the performance here at the end of Coker's tenure, and that the same malaise rolled over to Shannon even as the latter endeavored to run a much tighter ship, the only really strong argument for anything better than a random December bowl game is something like, "This is Miami!" So the short-term prognosis is not particularly good.
The turning point is not likely to come this fall, then, when the first two games are at Florida and Texas A&M, both of which will be favored, and the first five ACC games are virtual toss-ups at best. The good news about playing in a conference with so much parity is that there need be no miracles - the upcoming season will be about establishing consistency and winning the majority of either/or conference games, then seeking a breakthrough at the start of 2009 against Oklahoma and South Florida.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Road to Recovery: Nebraska
by SMQ on Jan 31, 2008 11:00 PM EST in News
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
Technically, Nebraska is not so far removed from some degree of success since Tom Osborne retired ten years ago, having won two conference titles, played in eight bowl games and appeared in the Big 12 Championship game as recently as 2006. The last six years, though, since 2002, is easily the program's worst stretch since the start of the 1962 season, Bob Devaney's first in Lincoln, before the Kennedy assassination. Bill Callahan managed to guide the Huskers to two losing seasons in four years, when none of his three predecessors had even lost more than three games twice in any four-year period (even Frank Solich took five years to lose four and seven, respectably). In the 40 years covering 1962-2001, Nebraska won five mythical championships and was the only team in the nation with a winning percentage over 80 percent (it was well over, at .832). Since 2002, that number has dropped to .579, barely treading water in a tie with Purdue for 42nd-best in that span.
What Went Wrong: In 2007, the defense. Everything related to the defense, up to and including the linebackers' choice of desert at pregame meals. The front four was not exactly young, but it was inexperienced (the entire D-line rotation had one career start between its members entering the season), and ultimately dead last in the Big 12 in rushing defense, total defense, scoring defense and even sacks, just two years removed from leading the nation in sacks and tackles for loss in 2005. It was almost literally half the unit it was in 2006: opponents' rushing yards doubled, scoring doubled, total yards rocketed up 50 percent, sacks were cut in half, turnovers were virtually nonexistant. This despite returning four senior linebackers (two of them, Bo Ruud and Corey McKeon, returning all-Big 12 picks from 2006) and four senior starters in the secondary.
Mere inexperience cannot begin to account for the decline up front, where powerhouses Nevada, Iowa State and Kansas State (all teams with losing records at year's end) met some resistance but the Huskers' other nine opponents (all bowl teams) met virtually none whatsoever - USC easily went over 300 yards rushing in September, followed by Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas in consecutive weeks in October, by which time the former Blackshirts had pretty cleary mailed it in. No full effort at this level could result in allowing 76 points to Kansas and another 65 to Colorado in the finale, with Kansas State scoring 31 in between the two for good measure; no full effort could yield an astonishing 38 rushing touchdowns. Even against a healthy, motivated USC, no full effort could be shoved around like this:
If you look here and here and here you'll see a pattern of confusion, indecisiveness, overpursuit, blown coverages and plain bad angles that serve well the highlight reel interests of opposing offenses, and scheme and ill-timed blitzes and the like played their role in the historic demise. But when a largely veteran group with a previous track record of competence turns in the worst performance in school history by a mile, the first problem is that, somewhere along the way, it just accepted its fate and waited for it to be over.
What Went At Least Moderately Right: The offense stalled along with the defense in October but in the end was not terrible, and in fact ended on an extremely positive note with this year's quarterback, Joe Ganz, who threw for 405, 510 and 484 in the final three games, as well as 15 touchdowns, en route to the Huskers racking up 39, 73 and 51 points. Of course, all of them were wild shootouts that required virtually non-stop passing just to keep pace as the defense descended into the furthest depths of its black hole, and Ganz also threw seven interceptions that helped the score get way, way out of hand in the losses to Kansas and Colorado. He did deliver one of the season's best single-game performances against Kansas State, though (30-40, 510 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT), and would have easily smashed every school passing record if he'd played in more than three games.
Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: The Huskers are still dramatically out-recruiting the rest of the Big 12 North, having pulled in the best class in the division four years in a row, guys who have had some success before last year and who will be hard to keep so far down under a completely revamped administration. Ganz is back with his best skill player, Marlon Lucky, and a slew of characteristically huge linemen with significant starting experience; as bad as the front four was last year, it was completely green, and returns intact. And it can't be worse.
Bo can moonlight however he wants, as long as he beats Missouri.
But the new administration is the thing: Bo Pelini has never been a head coach, and in fact may in reality be the faux-German actor from those ridiculous Volkswagen commercials, but new blood is new blood, and the enthusiasm of change and audacity of hope, etc., on a roster with more raw talent than three-fourths of next year's opponents might have a lot of the prognosticenti projecting Nebraska right back at the top of the North, behind Missouri. My guess - it's only a guess - is that the "New Day" theme and the Husker brand will probably give the Big Red the drop on Kansas again in the preseason. (Nebraska Football: We Hope We'll Be Better Than Kansas! Catch The Fever!) One year removed from a division title, with a new, fairly high profile coach should lend itself to the familiar mania again by August. August? Hell, they'll sell out the Spring game. Obstacles: Whatever it's worth, the Nebraska "mystique" is finished; if the Solich Experiment didn't kill it, Bill Callahan's nondescript mediocrity was a death blow. Even if the defense gets its old black shirts back, it will have to earn the status all over again from offenses that most recently feasted on its lethargy. The division is Missouri's now, the Tigers having finally made the leap and returning the second-most balleyhooed quarterback in the country, and Kansas no doubt expects to be right there, quietly whispering "76" into Big Red ears like horrible ghosts. The 'N' on the helmet guarantees a lot of pomp, ambition and attention, but it's really just another team at this point.
The reliance on an annual junior college infusion doesn't help much long term; for an established team, a JUCO can be the missing link, but in rebuilding mode, they are typically stopgap-only kinds of guys who can help turn the ship in a new direction in hopes of luring talented freshmen on board. If they can't, JUCOs aren't nearly as likely to dig a program out of the sand over the long run.
Target Date For Reacqusition of Mojo: The roster is too young in 2008, which shapes up as a slow-starting, growing pains season that hinges on competitive efforts against Oklahoma and Kansas to start November and a fast closing stretch that builds momentum into a bowl game. As for 2009, though, there will be huge turnover with no young stars apparently in the wings. JUCO guys may have to carry the day, which is another way of saying, "Wait and see." Unlike some other places, though, there is no apparent path to turnaround: if there's little progress after the first weekend of October 2009, when Nebraska plays at Missouri two weeks after playing at Virginia Tech, the first wafts of malaise will begin to descend anew.
Great programs on hard times.
- - -
Technically, Nebraska is not so far removed from some degree of success since Tom Osborne retired ten years ago, having won two conference titles, played in eight bowl games and appeared in the Big 12 Championship game as recently as 2006. The last six years, though, since 2002, is easily the program's worst stretch since the start of the 1962 season, Bob Devaney's first in Lincoln, before the Kennedy assassination. Bill Callahan managed to guide the Huskers to two losing seasons in four years, when none of his three predecessors had even lost more than three games twice in any four-year period (even Frank Solich took five years to lose four and seven, respectably). In the 40 years covering 1962-2001, Nebraska won five mythical championships and was the only team in the nation with a winning percentage over 80 percent (it was well over, at .832). Since 2002, that number has dropped to .579, barely treading water in a tie with Purdue for 42nd-best in that span.
What Went Wrong: In 2007, the defense. Everything related to the defense, up to and including the linebackers' choice of desert at pregame meals. The front four was not exactly young, but it was inexperienced (the entire D-line rotation had one career start between its members entering the season), and ultimately dead last in the Big 12 in rushing defense, total defense, scoring defense and even sacks, just two years removed from leading the nation in sacks and tackles for loss in 2005. It was almost literally half the unit it was in 2006: opponents' rushing yards doubled, scoring doubled, total yards rocketed up 50 percent, sacks were cut in half, turnovers were virtually nonexistant. This despite returning four senior linebackers (two of them, Bo Ruud and Corey McKeon, returning all-Big 12 picks from 2006) and four senior starters in the secondary.
Mere inexperience cannot begin to account for the decline up front, where powerhouses Nevada, Iowa State and Kansas State (all teams with losing records at year's end) met some resistance but the Huskers' other nine opponents (all bowl teams) met virtually none whatsoever - USC easily went over 300 yards rushing in September, followed by Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas in consecutive weeks in October, by which time the former Blackshirts had pretty cleary mailed it in. No full effort at this level could result in allowing 76 points to Kansas and another 65 to Colorado in the finale, with Kansas State scoring 31 in between the two for good measure; no full effort could yield an astonishing 38 rushing touchdowns. Even against a healthy, motivated USC, no full effort could be shoved around like this:
If you look here and here and here you'll see a pattern of confusion, indecisiveness, overpursuit, blown coverages and plain bad angles that serve well the highlight reel interests of opposing offenses, and scheme and ill-timed blitzes and the like played their role in the historic demise. But when a largely veteran group with a previous track record of competence turns in the worst performance in school history by a mile, the first problem is that, somewhere along the way, it just accepted its fate and waited for it to be over.
What Went At Least Moderately Right: The offense stalled along with the defense in October but in the end was not terrible, and in fact ended on an extremely positive note with this year's quarterback, Joe Ganz, who threw for 405, 510 and 484 in the final three games, as well as 15 touchdowns, en route to the Huskers racking up 39, 73 and 51 points. Of course, all of them were wild shootouts that required virtually non-stop passing just to keep pace as the defense descended into the furthest depths of its black hole, and Ganz also threw seven interceptions that helped the score get way, way out of hand in the losses to Kansas and Colorado. He did deliver one of the season's best single-game performances against Kansas State, though (30-40, 510 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT), and would have easily smashed every school passing record if he'd played in more than three games.
Changes, Building Blocks and Other Cautious Optimism: The Huskers are still dramatically out-recruiting the rest of the Big 12 North, having pulled in the best class in the division four years in a row, guys who have had some success before last year and who will be hard to keep so far down under a completely revamped administration. Ganz is back with his best skill player, Marlon Lucky, and a slew of characteristically huge linemen with significant starting experience; as bad as the front four was last year, it was completely green, and returns intact. And it can't be worse.
Bo can moonlight however he wants, as long as he beats Missouri.
But the new administration is the thing: Bo Pelini has never been a head coach, and in fact may in reality be the faux-German actor from those ridiculous Volkswagen commercials, but new blood is new blood, and the enthusiasm of change and audacity of hope, etc., on a roster with more raw talent than three-fourths of next year's opponents might have a lot of the prognosticenti projecting Nebraska right back at the top of the North, behind Missouri. My guess - it's only a guess - is that the "New Day" theme and the Husker brand will probably give the Big Red the drop on Kansas again in the preseason. (Nebraska Football: We Hope We'll Be Better Than Kansas! Catch The Fever!) One year removed from a division title, with a new, fairly high profile coach should lend itself to the familiar mania again by August. August? Hell, they'll sell out the Spring game. Obstacles: Whatever it's worth, the Nebraska "mystique" is finished; if the Solich Experiment didn't kill it, Bill Callahan's nondescript mediocrity was a death blow. Even if the defense gets its old black shirts back, it will have to earn the status all over again from offenses that most recently feasted on its lethargy. The division is Missouri's now, the Tigers having finally made the leap and returning the second-most balleyhooed quarterback in the country, and Kansas no doubt expects to be right there, quietly whispering "76" into Big Red ears like horrible ghosts. The 'N' on the helmet guarantees a lot of pomp, ambition and attention, but it's really just another team at this point.
The reliance on an annual junior college infusion doesn't help much long term; for an established team, a JUCO can be the missing link, but in rebuilding mode, they are typically stopgap-only kinds of guys who can help turn the ship in a new direction in hopes of luring talented freshmen on board. If they can't, JUCOs aren't nearly as likely to dig a program out of the sand over the long run.
Target Date For Reacqusition of Mojo: The roster is too young in 2008, which shapes up as a slow-starting, growing pains season that hinges on competitive efforts against Oklahoma and Kansas to start November and a fast closing stretch that builds momentum into a bowl game. As for 2009, though, there will be huge turnover with no young stars apparently in the wings. JUCO guys may have to carry the day, which is another way of saying, "Wait and see." Unlike some other places, though, there is no apparent path to turnaround: if there's little progress after the first weekend of October 2009, when Nebraska plays at Missouri two weeks after playing at Virginia Tech, the first wafts of malaise will begin to descend anew.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
HORNSBY BOOTED
Jamar Hornsby gets the boot from Florida. For once, Urban Meyer does not think the punishment is harsh.
“He is not part of our program,” Meyer said in a statement.
Bra-fucking-vo.
Jamar Hornsby gets the boot from Florida. For once, Urban Meyer does not think the punishment is harsh.
“He is not part of our program,” Meyer said in a statement.
Bra-fucking-vo.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
SIGNS OF LIFE: STEELE SPEAKS
Phil: Emerging from the DataBunker.
Speaks, writes, emits information at a startling rate: whatever you call what Phil Steele does, it’s ramping up for the release of Steele 2008. (Per his website: June. You can usually find a few copies ahead of schedule on stands, and then call friends and bark at them incoherently with excitement. They’ll get used to this after three years or so of these calls.)
He has comparative strength of schedules tables up based on last year’s winning percentages, and they’re further proof that the less you pay attention to winning percentages in terms of where you put teams in your preseason, the better.
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Arkansas
4. UCLA
4. Alabama
6. Auburn
7. Ohio State
8. Kentucky
9. Colorado
9. Baylor
9. Washington
9. <strike>Ohio</strike> Oregon State.
Que pobrelito, Baylor: you’re the econ major who, through some trick of malicious scheduling, has stumbled into an advanced price theory class in your first semester. Georgia is set up so well for this year: coming in they have the awe-inspiring schedule, meaning their first real foray out of the south, interstate rivalry with a feisty Tech team, and SEC schedule have them stocked high from the onset. Coming out of the schedule, they can still have one loss (a la Florida in 2006) and may still have a legitimate nod over an undefeated team with one loss leaving the season because of THE SCHEDULE, which will be typed in all caps due to its importance in shaking out where Georgia is when the season finishes.
(Barring Knowshon being kidnapped by FARC rebels, this won’t happen. We haven’t saved up quite enough money to make this happen yet, but we’ll keep you posted.)
BTW, Iowa claims the 95th weakest schedule by winning percentage going into 2008. Ferentz Silences Doubters With Football Renaissance. Thought we’d just type that for the six to ten sportswriters who will have to write that same inaccurate wretched story come November or December of this year. Just cut and paste it, guys!
Speaks, writes, emits information at a startling rate: whatever you call what Phil Steele does, it’s ramping up for the release of Steele 2008. (Per his website: June. You can usually find a few copies ahead of schedule on stands, and then call friends and bark at them incoherently with excitement. They’ll get used to this after three years or so of these calls.)
He has comparative strength of schedules tables up based on last year’s winning percentages, and they’re further proof that the less you pay attention to winning percentages in terms of where you put teams in your preseason, the better.
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Arkansas
4. UCLA
4. Alabama
6. Auburn
7. Ohio State
8. Kentucky
9. Colorado
9. Baylor
9. Washington
9. <strike>Ohio</strike> Oregon State.
Que pobrelito, Baylor: you’re the econ major who, through some trick of malicious scheduling, has stumbled into an advanced price theory class in your first semester. Georgia is set up so well for this year: coming in they have the awe-inspiring schedule, meaning their first real foray out of the south, interstate rivalry with a feisty Tech team, and SEC schedule have them stocked high from the onset. Coming out of the schedule, they can still have one loss (a la Florida in 2006) and may still have a legitimate nod over an undefeated team with one loss leaving the season because of THE SCHEDULE, which will be typed in all caps due to its importance in shaking out where Georgia is when the season finishes.
(Barring Knowshon being kidnapped by FARC rebels, this won’t happen. We haven’t saved up quite enough money to make this happen yet, but we’ll keep you posted.)
BTW, Iowa claims the 95th weakest schedule by winning percentage going into 2008. Ferentz Silences Doubters With Football Renaissance. Thought we’d just type that for the six to ten sportswriters who will have to write that same inaccurate wretched story come November or December of this year. Just cut and paste it, guys!
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
FULMER CUPDATE: INDIANA’S NOT BAREBACKING EDITION
This week’s update comes to you courtesy of Brian, who is hung like Reggie F’n Nelson and continues to provide fine updates throughout the long, half-completed marathon of the off-season.
Clarifications, equivocations, and carefully placed profanities follow.
Virginia keeps creeping up in the standings, a quiet lurker just one or two spectacular group incidents away from challenging Missouri for the lead. With a recent paucity of misdemeanors and drunken minor felonies in Knoxville, the Vols’ score seems to have plateaued for the moment. Virginia only has Mike Brown working the board for them, but he’s doing yeoman’s work by his lonesome, tacking on a DWI and failure to take a breath test onto Virginia’s tally for two more points. Mike’s put himself in great position to take the lead for the Ellis T. Jones III Award for individual achievement.
Stolen condoms get Torri Williams and the Purdue Boilermakers on the little board this week thanks to Williams’ ingenious crime: theft of something universities literally throw at students left and right for free, condoms. Perhaps Williams needed Magnums and not the trusty Lifestyles ubiquitous in public health offices, but we doubt it: HIV education sessions are famous for instructors putting their arms in condoms, and whole HIV campaigns in Thailand revolved around Mechai Viravadya (a.k.a. “Mr. Condom”) sticking them on his head like beanie and blowing them up like balloons. (”Not around the face kids! NOT THE FACE!”)
Those things stress-test safely even for cervix-battering Santonio Holmes types with ginormous Boilermakers of their own. The one thing they cannot prevent from transmitting over to Purdue are Fulmer Cup points, as in a point for shoplifting and one extra stupid bonus point for shoplifting something easily obtained free anywhere else.
BTW: What the hell is the Fulmer Cup tally for a charge of cannibalism?
This week’s update comes to you courtesy of Brian, who is hung like Reggie F’n Nelson and continues to provide fine updates throughout the long, half-completed marathon of the off-season.
Clarifications, equivocations, and carefully placed profanities follow.
Virginia keeps creeping up in the standings, a quiet lurker just one or two spectacular group incidents away from challenging Missouri for the lead. With a recent paucity of misdemeanors and drunken minor felonies in Knoxville, the Vols’ score seems to have plateaued for the moment. Virginia only has Mike Brown working the board for them, but he’s doing yeoman’s work by his lonesome, tacking on a DWI and failure to take a breath test onto Virginia’s tally for two more points. Mike’s put himself in great position to take the lead for the Ellis T. Jones III Award for individual achievement.
Stolen condoms get Torri Williams and the Purdue Boilermakers on the little board this week thanks to Williams’ ingenious crime: theft of something universities literally throw at students left and right for free, condoms. Perhaps Williams needed Magnums and not the trusty Lifestyles ubiquitous in public health offices, but we doubt it: HIV education sessions are famous for instructors putting their arms in condoms, and whole HIV campaigns in Thailand revolved around Mechai Viravadya (a.k.a. “Mr. Condom”) sticking them on his head like beanie and blowing them up like balloons. (”Not around the face kids! NOT THE FACE!”)
Those things stress-test safely even for cervix-battering Santonio Holmes types with ginormous Boilermakers of their own. The one thing they cannot prevent from transmitting over to Purdue are Fulmer Cup points, as in a point for shoplifting and one extra stupid bonus point for shoplifting something easily obtained free anywhere else.
BTW: What the hell is the Fulmer Cup tally for a charge of cannibalism?
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Contenders: Oklahoma
by SMQ on May 22, 2008 8:54 AM EDT
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
There’s a sort of ironic pessimism about Oklahoma as a championship frontrunner, after the Sooners were blown out of another BCS bowl in January, on the heels of embarrassing losses to USC in the Orange Bowl in 2005 and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl in 2007. “Can’t win the big one,” is a weird tag to append to a program that’s won four of the last five Big 12 championships, after all, under a coach that won a stunning mythical championship in his second year, and been one of the few teams (along with USC and Ohio State) consistently good enough to make the Series a practical birthright.
Loadholt, during a diet.
- - -
Ergo, unimpressive as it was with plenty of pride and future poll cachet at stake the last time out, when the team that’s won more games and as many conference championships as any team in the country in its coach’s tenure returns 16 starters of this caliber, the polls have to consider a mulligan.
Bow Down. The best case for the Sooners to open at the top of the ledger is a simple, conventional eyeball test: as a sum of returning personnel, OU’s depth chart is as daunting as any you’re going to find. This is especially the case on the offensive line, which returns intact, was very good to begin with and is virtually guaranteed to top those fairly silly “unit rankings” in the preseason mags. Last year’s front averaged over 320 pounds per man and allowed a paltry sack per game; all six full or part-time starters are back, with a left side (350-pound Phil Loadholt and 330-pound Duke Robinson) that’s projected right now to go in the first round next April. When you start veering toward half a ton on one side, it’s not surprising that three different running backs went over 600 yards, or, off of the running game, that a redshirt freshman led the nation in touchdown percent and overall pass efficiency. Sam Bradford (redshirt freshman), DeMarco Murray (redshirt freshman) and Jermaine Gresham (true sophomore) were basically pups last year, and given the support they have up front, that’s pretty frightening.
Re: the loss of Malcolm Kelly at receiver, he came off during his pre-draft freefall as kind of an attitude problem; there’s no way from this vantage point to know if that’s true, but anyway, Juaquin Iglesias had more catches, Gresham had more touchdowns and Manuel Johnson’s straight ahead speed makes him a comparable deep threat. OU scored 51 against Miami, 28 against Texas, 41 and 38 against Missouri, 42 against Texas A&M and 49 against Oklahoma State last year; even in the three losses, it scored 24, 27 and 28, respectively. There’s no reason to think the offense won’t average 40 again.
The only complaint on the defense – on the entire team, really – is the secondary, which still has one of the most active, disruptive safeties in the country (Nic Harris) and shouldn’t have to cover long with Auston English, DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy on the front four, three more relative pups (two third-year sophomores and a reshirt freshman) who were all-Big 12 by the coaches in their first year as starters.
The second-best case for the Sooners, even if you don’t like the holes in the secondary, is the schedule: the non-conference “heavies” are Cincinnati, Washington and TCU, “could be tough” games OU will still be expected to win by a mile. That leaves three big conference games: Texas, Kansas and Texas Tech, the last two in Norman, and again – though each of those teams has its bandwagon – all of which OU is definitely favored to win going into the season. There won’t be anyone who can convincingly explain why this team shouldn’t be on a 12-0 collision course with Missouri in the Big 12 championship.
Bust Out. That is, unless they look at the recent record in “routine” games, which shows a pattern of bizarre letdowns: OU has lost four games in three years it was favored to win by at least a touchdown (to TCU in 2005, Boise in ‘06, Colorado and Texas Tech last year), after inadvertently launching Les Miles’ career by with inexplicable losses to Oklahoma State in 2001 and 2002; the Sooners also lost to the ‘02 edition of Texas A&M team that ultimately got R.C. Slocum fired, and there was the hapless blowout at the hands of Kansas State after an undefeated regular season in 2003.
All of those losses had one thing in common: a breakdown by the Sooner defense, and the secondary, specifically:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">OU Defense in Upset Losses Under Stoops</caption> <tbody> <tr> </tr> <tr> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Year</td> <td align="center">Team</td> <td align="center">Pts. Allowed</td> <td align="center">Pass Yards</td> <td align="center">Pass TD</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2001</td> <td align="right">Oklahoma State</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">258</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2002</td> <td align="right">Texas A&M</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">219</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2002</td> <td align="right">Oklahoma State</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">357</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="right">Kansas State</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">227</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="right">TCU</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">226</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="right">Boise State</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">267</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="right">Colorado</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">220</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="right">Texas Tech</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">420</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="right">West Virginia</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">176</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Outmanned Oklahoma State in 2001 and TCU in ‘05 won what you’d call defensive games; Kansas State in ‘03 and West Virginia last year, obviously, did much more damage running at will against a supposedly overpowering front seven (ditto Colorado last year, to a much lesser extent, yardage-wise, but CU’s running game helped it dominate time of possession). The point here is that the defense has had semi-regular breakdowns since 2002, about two or three per season on average, and there’s no real pattern for when that might happen; they’ve found themselves susceptible to long bombs (OSU, A&M) and jitterbugs out of the backfield (K-State, WVU) alike. Lift the upset restriction, and you can add the breakdowns against USC in the ‘05 Orange Bowl rout (those Trojans were awesome, yes, but 55 points?) and against Oregon in the ‘06 screwjob game in Eugene, a game OU lost despite a +3 turnover margin because it couldn’t cover anybody.
None of which is a very comforting precedent for moving three new starters into the secondary – two new linebackers, too. With a schedule likely to provide only one marquee pelt to hang on the wall (two at most, depending on wildcards Kansas and Texas Tech), all it takes is one mistake to kill the campaign.
Winning the Little One(s). All are valid criticisms to date, but you’re treading on very loose ground in any attempt to transfer psychological ephemera like “inconsistent” or “can’t win the big one” or “always loses one they shouldn’t” across several years, as something that somehow defines an otherwise outstanding coach and program that has, in fact, proven consistent enough to run the table against big ones and little ones alike in the past. The focus should be on more practical concerns: there are legitimate questions about Bradford’s competence under pressure when the running game isn’t humming and lightning bolt Murray’s ability as an every-down back to keep it humming, and nobody is nonchalant about noobs in the secondary (ask Florida).
Take this schedule, though, and it’s the most favorable of any of the major candidates’ to surviving the regular season without a scratch, a trick Stoops has pulled off three times already in eight years with less stacked offenses. My instincts, as well as the early returns, say none of the mainstream polls – even the ones that don’t count in the BCS, or summer magazines and the like – will be willing to pull the trigger on Oklahoma after the way things went down in the Fiesta Bowl, and maybe even because of the growing reputation of late-season egg-laying. But whoever they do put there, it won’t be a much better candidate than OU to actually finish on top.
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
There’s a sort of ironic pessimism about Oklahoma as a championship frontrunner, after the Sooners were blown out of another BCS bowl in January, on the heels of embarrassing losses to USC in the Orange Bowl in 2005 and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl in 2007. “Can’t win the big one,” is a weird tag to append to a program that’s won four of the last five Big 12 championships, after all, under a coach that won a stunning mythical championship in his second year, and been one of the few teams (along with USC and Ohio State) consistently good enough to make the Series a practical birthright.
Loadholt, during a diet.
- - -
Ergo, unimpressive as it was with plenty of pride and future poll cachet at stake the last time out, when the team that’s won more games and as many conference championships as any team in the country in its coach’s tenure returns 16 starters of this caliber, the polls have to consider a mulligan.
Bow Down. The best case for the Sooners to open at the top of the ledger is a simple, conventional eyeball test: as a sum of returning personnel, OU’s depth chart is as daunting as any you’re going to find. This is especially the case on the offensive line, which returns intact, was very good to begin with and is virtually guaranteed to top those fairly silly “unit rankings” in the preseason mags. Last year’s front averaged over 320 pounds per man and allowed a paltry sack per game; all six full or part-time starters are back, with a left side (350-pound Phil Loadholt and 330-pound Duke Robinson) that’s projected right now to go in the first round next April. When you start veering toward half a ton on one side, it’s not surprising that three different running backs went over 600 yards, or, off of the running game, that a redshirt freshman led the nation in touchdown percent and overall pass efficiency. Sam Bradford (redshirt freshman), DeMarco Murray (redshirt freshman) and Jermaine Gresham (true sophomore) were basically pups last year, and given the support they have up front, that’s pretty frightening.
Re: the loss of Malcolm Kelly at receiver, he came off during his pre-draft freefall as kind of an attitude problem; there’s no way from this vantage point to know if that’s true, but anyway, Juaquin Iglesias had more catches, Gresham had more touchdowns and Manuel Johnson’s straight ahead speed makes him a comparable deep threat. OU scored 51 against Miami, 28 against Texas, 41 and 38 against Missouri, 42 against Texas A&M and 49 against Oklahoma State last year; even in the three losses, it scored 24, 27 and 28, respectively. There’s no reason to think the offense won’t average 40 again.
The only complaint on the defense – on the entire team, really – is the secondary, which still has one of the most active, disruptive safeties in the country (Nic Harris) and shouldn’t have to cover long with Auston English, DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy on the front four, three more relative pups (two third-year sophomores and a reshirt freshman) who were all-Big 12 by the coaches in their first year as starters.
The second-best case for the Sooners, even if you don’t like the holes in the secondary, is the schedule: the non-conference “heavies” are Cincinnati, Washington and TCU, “could be tough” games OU will still be expected to win by a mile. That leaves three big conference games: Texas, Kansas and Texas Tech, the last two in Norman, and again – though each of those teams has its bandwagon – all of which OU is definitely favored to win going into the season. There won’t be anyone who can convincingly explain why this team shouldn’t be on a 12-0 collision course with Missouri in the Big 12 championship.
Bust Out. That is, unless they look at the recent record in “routine” games, which shows a pattern of bizarre letdowns: OU has lost four games in three years it was favored to win by at least a touchdown (to TCU in 2005, Boise in ‘06, Colorado and Texas Tech last year), after inadvertently launching Les Miles’ career by with inexplicable losses to Oklahoma State in 2001 and 2002; the Sooners also lost to the ‘02 edition of Texas A&M team that ultimately got R.C. Slocum fired, and there was the hapless blowout at the hands of Kansas State after an undefeated regular season in 2003.
All of those losses had one thing in common: a breakdown by the Sooner defense, and the secondary, specifically:
<table cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <caption align="top">OU Defense in Upset Losses Under Stoops</caption> <tbody> <tr> </tr> <tr> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">Year</td> <td align="center">Team</td> <td align="center">Pts. Allowed</td> <td align="center">Pass Yards</td> <td align="center">Pass TD</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2001</td> <td align="right">Oklahoma State</td> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">258</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2002</td> <td align="right">Texas A&M</td> <td align="center">30</td> <td align="center">219</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2002</td> <td align="right">Oklahoma State</td> <td align="center">38</td> <td align="center">357</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2003</td> <td align="right">Kansas State</td> <td align="center">35</td> <td align="center">227</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2005</td> <td align="right">TCU</td> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">226</td> <td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2006</td> <td align="right">Boise State</td> <td align="center">43</td> <td align="center">267</td> <td align="center">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="right">Colorado</td> <td align="center">27</td> <td align="center">220</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="right">Texas Tech</td> <td align="center">34</td> <td align="center">420</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2007</td> <td align="right">West Virginia</td> <td align="center">48</td> <td align="center">176</td> <td align="center">2</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Outmanned Oklahoma State in 2001 and TCU in ‘05 won what you’d call defensive games; Kansas State in ‘03 and West Virginia last year, obviously, did much more damage running at will against a supposedly overpowering front seven (ditto Colorado last year, to a much lesser extent, yardage-wise, but CU’s running game helped it dominate time of possession). The point here is that the defense has had semi-regular breakdowns since 2002, about two or three per season on average, and there’s no real pattern for when that might happen; they’ve found themselves susceptible to long bombs (OSU, A&M) and jitterbugs out of the backfield (K-State, WVU) alike. Lift the upset restriction, and you can add the breakdowns against USC in the ‘05 Orange Bowl rout (those Trojans were awesome, yes, but 55 points?) and against Oregon in the ‘06 screwjob game in Eugene, a game OU lost despite a +3 turnover margin because it couldn’t cover anybody.
None of which is a very comforting precedent for moving three new starters into the secondary – two new linebackers, too. With a schedule likely to provide only one marquee pelt to hang on the wall (two at most, depending on wildcards Kansas and Texas Tech), all it takes is one mistake to kill the campaign.
Winning the Little One(s). All are valid criticisms to date, but you’re treading on very loose ground in any attempt to transfer psychological ephemera like “inconsistent” or “can’t win the big one” or “always loses one they shouldn’t” across several years, as something that somehow defines an otherwise outstanding coach and program that has, in fact, proven consistent enough to run the table against big ones and little ones alike in the past. The focus should be on more practical concerns: there are legitimate questions about Bradford’s competence under pressure when the running game isn’t humming and lightning bolt Murray’s ability as an every-down back to keep it humming, and nobody is nonchalant about noobs in the secondary (ask Florida).
Take this schedule, though, and it’s the most favorable of any of the major candidates’ to surviving the regular season without a scratch, a trick Stoops has pulled off three times already in eight years with less stacked offenses. My instincts, as well as the early returns, say none of the mainstream polls – even the ones that don’t count in the BCS, or summer magazines and the like – will be willing to pull the trigger on Oklahoma after the way things went down in the Fiesta Bowl, and maybe even because of the growing reputation of late-season egg-laying. But whoever they do put there, it won’t be a much better candidate than OU to actually finish on top.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Revisiting: Mississippi State on the Margins
by SMQ on May 22, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
I asked this question last November, when Mississippi State was getting ready to play Arkansas with a chance to improve to 7-4 overall and above .500 in the SEC for the first time in eight years. It lost that game but won its last two, finishing 8-5, 4-4 in the conference, with wins in four of its last five. I probably should wait for the belated SEC edition of the "Stats Relevance Watch" to go into this, for the benefit of the "stats don't matter" crowd, but writing about the Bulldogs for a magazine coming out this summer, I was reminded just how frustrating it is to try to figure out where they're going based on those performances.
That finish just made a puzzling team that much more of an enigma. Not to get too philosophical, but how does one explain a team that didn’t significantly improve in any tangible way from its lame duck predecessors, yet somehow won as many SEC games (four) as it had in Sylvester Croom’s first three years combined, and fell just one win short of matching its entire win total (nine) over that span? MSU was outgained by 73 yards per conference game, a wider margin than in its 1-7 season in 2006, and finished last in the SEC again in passing, pass efficiency and total offense. It also finished next-to-last in scoring despite a league-best six non-offensive touchdowns (five interception returns and a punt return), three of them leading directly to narrow wins over Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss. That handful of critical plays at critical moments might be the single biggest difference from the last place teams of Croom’s first three years:
<TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=3><CAPTION align=top>MSU Output vs. Opponent Output, SEC Games</CAPTION><TBODY><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>Total Yds.</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Carry</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Pass</TD><TD align=middle>Pass Rating</TD><TD align=middle>TO Margin</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2004</TD><TD align=middle>-118.6</TD><TD align=middle>-0.37</TD><TD align=middle>-2.3</TD><TD align=middle>-40.5</TD><TD align=middle>-1</TD><TD align=middle>2-6</TD></TR><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2005</TD><TD align=middle>-99.4</TD><TD align=middle>-0.58</TD><TD align=middle>-2.2</TD><TD align=middle>-40.9</TD><TD align=middle>+ 2</TD><TD align=middle>1-7</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2006</TD><TD align=middle>-51.9</TD><TD align=middle>-0.24</TD><TD align=middle>-1.9</TD><TD align=middle>-41.8</TD><TD align=middle>-2</TD><TD align=middle>1-7</TD></TR><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2007</TD><TD align=middle>-73.4</TD><TD align=middle>-1.07</TD><TD align=middle>-0.6</TD><TD align=middle>-20.3</TD><TD align=middle>-1</TD><TD align=middle>4-4</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>In the big picture, the only element the Bulldogs improved last year relative to their opponents was in the passing (this is wholly a defensive improvement), and that came in conjunction with a much greater disparity in the running game (mostly a defensive regression). On the whole, MSU was getting beat at the same rate by these measures it was when it was finishing 1-7; the defense was better, but the offense, especially the passing game behind overwhelmed freshman Wesley Carroll, was worse. The turnover margin overall was –1; in SEC games, it was zero.
Or maybe the spirit of victory dwells within them.
- - -
Thus, the basic problem: was Mississippi State a slightly above average team by definition, because of its final record and wins over Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky and in the Liberty Bowl (wherein Central Florida outgained MSU but missed three field goals and lost a defensive slog, 7-3), or was it still a fundamentally bad but improbably lucky team destined to fall to earth without the same dramatic breaks?
As I suggested, the obvious answer is the big plays off turnovers, without which the Bulldogs are probably 1-7 again in the conference and have no chance to slip into a bowl game. As necessary as the game-changing plays were, though, when you parse the specific trends in wins and losses, it's clear they didn't occur in a vacuum; it wasn't as easy as Bad Team + Timely Turnover = Surprise Win.
That's counterintuitive based on the big picture since, compared against its own output, State's raw offensive numbers within SEC games were not better in wins than in losses. Just the opposite, in fact – offensively, MSU was only a little worse running in losses than it was in wins but much, much better passing in terms of both yards and efficiency, and significantly better in total yards in the four losses. Based on that, it makes sense to conclude the bridge from winning to losing was constructed exclusively with turnovers.
It's all relative, though: if the Bulldogs' offense was just bad, regardless, the defense fluctuated between bouts of equal misery and surprising ferocity:
<TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=3><CAPTION align=top>2007 MSU Output vs. Opponent Output, SEC Games</CAPTION><TBODY><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>Total Yds.</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Carry</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Pass</TD><TD align=middle>Pass Rating</TD><TD align=middle>TO Margin</TD><TD align=middle>Point Margin</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>4 Wins</TD><TD align=middle>-45.5</TD><TD align=middle>-1.1</TD><TD align=middle>+ 0.3</TD><TD align=middle>+ 8.6</TD><TD align=middle>+ 11</TD><TD align=middle>+ 7.5</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>4 Losses</TD><TD align=middle>-101.3</TD><TD align=middle>-1.6</TD><TD align=middle>-1.95</TD><TD align=middle>-79.2</TD><TD align=middle>-11</TD><TD align=middle>-22.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>When MSU won, it won close; when it lost, it lost big. At best, State was still getting beat at the line of scrimmage and outgained overall, but when the defense brought it, the margins were significantly smaller – the pass defense in the wins was so good that even the Bulldogs' rock bottom numbers through the air were still somehow a hair better than the opponents'. Narrow margins can be overcome by turnovers, and in this case, no gap was wider than the number of takeaways. Plus-eleven in four games is as astounding as minus-eleven is atrocious, and MSU made the most of those chances with what amounted to winning touchdowns on picks against Auburn and Alabama (to say nothing of Derek Pegues' punt return to tie and essentially break Ole Miss, a game the Rebels had in the bag eight minutes earlier). Those single plays don't matter in nearly the same way when a comeback is a double-digit odyssey (though, to be fair, the 45-0 opening loss to LSU was much worse than the other three examples and drags down the numbers in losses a bit).
The fact that State actually matched up well with some opponents on a down-to-down basis is a more positive sign than if it had been consistently quashed as usual and just got a couple turnovers go its way at the right time. The question going forward is, how does the defense decide when to show up? There was no rhyme or reason last year – they shut down André Woodson but got carved up for five TD passes by Casey Dick two weeks later. The strong pass rush was one of the catalysts of so many turnovers; though MSU was last in the SEC in sacks, it was first in tackles for loss and also got a lot of hurries from Titus Brown and Avery Hannibal, who are both gone.
This is not a very good omen: defensive and special teams touchdowns are about as reliable as lightning strikes, and it required a spate of them to get by last when the defense was playing well part of the time. If the defense regresses, even that kind of unlikely opportunism won't be able to turn the tide. Certainly nobody outside of Starkville expects Wesley Carroll to do it.
I asked this question last November, when Mississippi State was getting ready to play Arkansas with a chance to improve to 7-4 overall and above .500 in the SEC for the first time in eight years. It lost that game but won its last two, finishing 8-5, 4-4 in the conference, with wins in four of its last five. I probably should wait for the belated SEC edition of the "Stats Relevance Watch" to go into this, for the benefit of the "stats don't matter" crowd, but writing about the Bulldogs for a magazine coming out this summer, I was reminded just how frustrating it is to try to figure out where they're going based on those performances.
That finish just made a puzzling team that much more of an enigma. Not to get too philosophical, but how does one explain a team that didn’t significantly improve in any tangible way from its lame duck predecessors, yet somehow won as many SEC games (four) as it had in Sylvester Croom’s first three years combined, and fell just one win short of matching its entire win total (nine) over that span? MSU was outgained by 73 yards per conference game, a wider margin than in its 1-7 season in 2006, and finished last in the SEC again in passing, pass efficiency and total offense. It also finished next-to-last in scoring despite a league-best six non-offensive touchdowns (five interception returns and a punt return), three of them leading directly to narrow wins over Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss. That handful of critical plays at critical moments might be the single biggest difference from the last place teams of Croom’s first three years:
<TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=3><CAPTION align=top>MSU Output vs. Opponent Output, SEC Games</CAPTION><TBODY><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>Total Yds.</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Carry</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Pass</TD><TD align=middle>Pass Rating</TD><TD align=middle>TO Margin</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2004</TD><TD align=middle>-118.6</TD><TD align=middle>-0.37</TD><TD align=middle>-2.3</TD><TD align=middle>-40.5</TD><TD align=middle>-1</TD><TD align=middle>2-6</TD></TR><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2005</TD><TD align=middle>-99.4</TD><TD align=middle>-0.58</TD><TD align=middle>-2.2</TD><TD align=middle>-40.9</TD><TD align=middle>+ 2</TD><TD align=middle>1-7</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2006</TD><TD align=middle>-51.9</TD><TD align=middle>-0.24</TD><TD align=middle>-1.9</TD><TD align=middle>-41.8</TD><TD align=middle>-2</TD><TD align=middle>1-7</TD></TR><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle>2007</TD><TD align=middle>-73.4</TD><TD align=middle>-1.07</TD><TD align=middle>-0.6</TD><TD align=middle>-20.3</TD><TD align=middle>-1</TD><TD align=middle>4-4</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>In the big picture, the only element the Bulldogs improved last year relative to their opponents was in the passing (this is wholly a defensive improvement), and that came in conjunction with a much greater disparity in the running game (mostly a defensive regression). On the whole, MSU was getting beat at the same rate by these measures it was when it was finishing 1-7; the defense was better, but the offense, especially the passing game behind overwhelmed freshman Wesley Carroll, was worse. The turnover margin overall was –1; in SEC games, it was zero.
- - -
Thus, the basic problem: was Mississippi State a slightly above average team by definition, because of its final record and wins over Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky and in the Liberty Bowl (wherein Central Florida outgained MSU but missed three field goals and lost a defensive slog, 7-3), or was it still a fundamentally bad but improbably lucky team destined to fall to earth without the same dramatic breaks?
As I suggested, the obvious answer is the big plays off turnovers, without which the Bulldogs are probably 1-7 again in the conference and have no chance to slip into a bowl game. As necessary as the game-changing plays were, though, when you parse the specific trends in wins and losses, it's clear they didn't occur in a vacuum; it wasn't as easy as Bad Team + Timely Turnover = Surprise Win.
That's counterintuitive based on the big picture since, compared against its own output, State's raw offensive numbers within SEC games were not better in wins than in losses. Just the opposite, in fact – offensively, MSU was only a little worse running in losses than it was in wins but much, much better passing in terms of both yards and efficiency, and significantly better in total yards in the four losses. Based on that, it makes sense to conclude the bridge from winning to losing was constructed exclusively with turnovers.
It's all relative, though: if the Bulldogs' offense was just bad, regardless, the defense fluctuated between bouts of equal misery and surprising ferocity:
<TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=3><CAPTION align=top>2007 MSU Output vs. Opponent Output, SEC Games</CAPTION><TBODY><TR></TR><TR><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>Total Yds.</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Carry</TD><TD align=middle>Yds./Pass</TD><TD align=middle>Pass Rating</TD><TD align=middle>TO Margin</TD><TD align=middle>Point Margin</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>4 Wins</TD><TD align=middle>-45.5</TD><TD align=middle>-1.1</TD><TD align=middle>+ 0.3</TD><TD align=middle>+ 8.6</TD><TD align=middle>+ 11</TD><TD align=middle>+ 7.5</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>4 Losses</TD><TD align=middle>-101.3</TD><TD align=middle>-1.6</TD><TD align=middle>-1.95</TD><TD align=middle>-79.2</TD><TD align=middle>-11</TD><TD align=middle>-22.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>When MSU won, it won close; when it lost, it lost big. At best, State was still getting beat at the line of scrimmage and outgained overall, but when the defense brought it, the margins were significantly smaller – the pass defense in the wins was so good that even the Bulldogs' rock bottom numbers through the air were still somehow a hair better than the opponents'. Narrow margins can be overcome by turnovers, and in this case, no gap was wider than the number of takeaways. Plus-eleven in four games is as astounding as minus-eleven is atrocious, and MSU made the most of those chances with what amounted to winning touchdowns on picks against Auburn and Alabama (to say nothing of Derek Pegues' punt return to tie and essentially break Ole Miss, a game the Rebels had in the bag eight minutes earlier). Those single plays don't matter in nearly the same way when a comeback is a double-digit odyssey (though, to be fair, the 45-0 opening loss to LSU was much worse than the other three examples and drags down the numbers in losses a bit).
The fact that State actually matched up well with some opponents on a down-to-down basis is a more positive sign than if it had been consistently quashed as usual and just got a couple turnovers go its way at the right time. The question going forward is, how does the defense decide when to show up? There was no rhyme or reason last year – they shut down André Woodson but got carved up for five TD passes by Casey Dick two weeks later. The strong pass rush was one of the catalysts of so many turnovers; though MSU was last in the SEC in sacks, it was first in tackles for loss and also got a lot of hurries from Titus Brown and Avery Hannibal, who are both gone.
This is not a very good omen: defensive and special teams touchdowns are about as reliable as lightning strikes, and it required a spate of them to get by last when the defense was playing well part of the time. If the defense regresses, even that kind of unlikely opportunism won't be able to turn the tide. Certainly nobody outside of Starkville expects Wesley Carroll to do it.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Virginia defensive end transferring to K-State
By HOWARD RICHMAN
The Kansas City Star
The Virginia pipeline to the Kansas State football program continues.
Defensive end Jeffrey Fitzgerald, a freshman All-American and two-year starter at Virginia in 2006 and last year, is transferring to K-State, his high school coach Patrick Kane said by phone Friday from Richmond, Va. Fitzgerald plans to take summer school courses at K-State, will sit out in 2008, and be considered a fifth-year senior in 2009. He redshirted in 2005 at Virginia.
Fitzgerald was there during K-State coach Ron Prince’s last year as the offensive coordinator. Prince was hired in Dec. 2005 by the Wildcats. Fitzegrald joins linebacker Olu Hall, a former Virginia player, who will be eligible this season for the Wildcats.
How good is Fitzgerald, who is 6-3 279 and fourth on the team in tackles with 73 last year (including seven sacks)? “I also coached Duane Brown (offensive tackle who was a first-round pick, No. 26 overall, last month by the Houston Texans), and Jeffrey is every bit the athlete Duane is,” Kane said.
Kane said Fitzgerald left Virginia for personal reasons.
By HOWARD RICHMAN
The Kansas City Star
The Virginia pipeline to the Kansas State football program continues.
Defensive end Jeffrey Fitzgerald, a freshman All-American and two-year starter at Virginia in 2006 and last year, is transferring to K-State, his high school coach Patrick Kane said by phone Friday from Richmond, Va. Fitzgerald plans to take summer school courses at K-State, will sit out in 2008, and be considered a fifth-year senior in 2009. He redshirted in 2005 at Virginia.
Fitzgerald was there during K-State coach Ron Prince’s last year as the offensive coordinator. Prince was hired in Dec. 2005 by the Wildcats. Fitzegrald joins linebacker Olu Hall, a former Virginia player, who will be eligible this season for the Wildcats.
How good is Fitzgerald, who is 6-3 279 and fourth on the team in tackles with 73 last year (including seven sacks)? “I also coached Duane Brown (offensive tackle who was a first-round pick, No. 26 overall, last month by the Houston Texans), and Jeffrey is every bit the athlete Duane is,” Kane said.
Kane said Fitzgerald left Virginia for personal reasons.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
BYU recruit on mend after car crash in California
[FONT=Verdana,Helvetica,Arial]By Dick Harmon[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Helvetica,Arial]Deseret News[/FONT]
Published: May 24, 2008
It's been nearly a month since Stephen Wirthlin broke his neck in a freak automobile accident in Southern California.
The "recruited walk-on" football player to BYU for this fall was riding in the back seat of a Saturn sedan when the car, which was traveling too fast, hit a bump in the road and rolled over, out of control and off the pavement, crashing into a fence and trees.
At 3 a.m. that morning, his father, Richard, nephew of LDS apostle Joseph Wirthlin, talked to the paramedics at the emergency room.
One of the ambulance personnel told the father that the four boys were extremely lucky. "It's rare that people walk away from something like this," he said.
Stephen, who is a senior at Canyon High School in Canyon Country, Calif., home of BYU redshirt freshman J.J. DiLuigi, suffered a compression fracture of his fifth cervical vertebra. As the car flipped and came to rest and front air bags were deployed, Stephen found himself sitting by part of a tree limb. None of the four teens were ejected. All were wearing seat belts. Stephen has been in a neck brace ever since.
On Thursday, Stephen, with his neck brace, walked on the stage at his school's athletic awards assembly to a standing ovation. There, he was honored as Canyon High's Male Athlete of the Year.
An all-CIF football player, Stephen also excelled in soccer and ran the 100-, 200- and 400-meter events on his school's track team.
"I feel lucky to be alive," Stephen told the local newspaper, The Signal, which circulates in Santa Clara Valley.
One can only imagine how the sight of their son receiving that award hit the Wirthlins.
A fraction of a millimeter one way or another could have ended his life that April 26 night, or seriously injured him to the point of never being able to walk again. Now, doctors told them this week, the brace may come off in two or three weeks.
"There was no damage to the spinal cord, he doesn't have any pain, he had a few bumps and bruises and he was walking around after the accident," said his father. "Once they took an X-ray and saw his neck, they immediately stopped him, made him lay down, cut off his clothes, stabilized his neck and admitted him to the hospital."
Football, however, will be put on the back burner for now. Stephen is restricted from contact sports for the rest of the year. He will grayshirt this fall at BYU, where he will turn 19 and go on an LDS Church mission after fall semester. "When he returns, he should be ready to try to make the team," said Richard.
"Bronco Mendenhall called and assistant Barry Lamb, who recruits the area, stopped in to visit, which meant a lot to Stephen."
Meanwhile, an older brother, Richard, is in his final six months of a mission in Moscow, Russia, and also plans to walk on to BYU's football team upon his return. He also earned All-CIF honors at Canyon High. Both are wide receiver/defensive back candidates.
The Wirthlin brothers have careers that sandwich that of DiLuigi. Richard played and graduated before DiLuigi had his breakout year, leading Canyon to a win in the 2006 California Bowl. Stephen came after.
The Wirthlin family follows a similar path of many families with Utah roots where loyalties are split and passions run high. Joseph Wirthlin, the LDS general authority, played for the University of Utah and is a well-documented Ute fan who got close to Urban Meyer during his short stay in Salt Lake City. Joseph Wirthlin's brother, Richard, father to Richard and grandfather to the accident victim Stephen, was a professor of economics at BYU before going into private practice. That side of the family is die-hard blue.
While it remains to be seen if the Wirthlin sons will make BYU's roster in years to come, their father sees any and all opportunities as a blessing. "I appreciate, in a way you can only imagine, that I have sons whose top priority is to serve missions, then attend the greatest university in the world, BYU, and if it works out, to strap it on and play football. Playing for BYU would be a dream come true," said Richard.
[FONT=Verdana,Helvetica,Arial]By Dick Harmon[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Helvetica,Arial]Deseret News[/FONT]
Published: May 24, 2008
It's been nearly a month since Stephen Wirthlin broke his neck in a freak automobile accident in Southern California.
The "recruited walk-on" football player to BYU for this fall was riding in the back seat of a Saturn sedan when the car, which was traveling too fast, hit a bump in the road and rolled over, out of control and off the pavement, crashing into a fence and trees.
At 3 a.m. that morning, his father, Richard, nephew of LDS apostle Joseph Wirthlin, talked to the paramedics at the emergency room.
One of the ambulance personnel told the father that the four boys were extremely lucky. "It's rare that people walk away from something like this," he said.
Stephen, who is a senior at Canyon High School in Canyon Country, Calif., home of BYU redshirt freshman J.J. DiLuigi, suffered a compression fracture of his fifth cervical vertebra. As the car flipped and came to rest and front air bags were deployed, Stephen found himself sitting by part of a tree limb. None of the four teens were ejected. All were wearing seat belts. Stephen has been in a neck brace ever since.
On Thursday, Stephen, with his neck brace, walked on the stage at his school's athletic awards assembly to a standing ovation. There, he was honored as Canyon High's Male Athlete of the Year.
An all-CIF football player, Stephen also excelled in soccer and ran the 100-, 200- and 400-meter events on his school's track team.
"I feel lucky to be alive," Stephen told the local newspaper, The Signal, which circulates in Santa Clara Valley.
One can only imagine how the sight of their son receiving that award hit the Wirthlins.
A fraction of a millimeter one way or another could have ended his life that April 26 night, or seriously injured him to the point of never being able to walk again. Now, doctors told them this week, the brace may come off in two or three weeks.
"There was no damage to the spinal cord, he doesn't have any pain, he had a few bumps and bruises and he was walking around after the accident," said his father. "Once they took an X-ray and saw his neck, they immediately stopped him, made him lay down, cut off his clothes, stabilized his neck and admitted him to the hospital."
Football, however, will be put on the back burner for now. Stephen is restricted from contact sports for the rest of the year. He will grayshirt this fall at BYU, where he will turn 19 and go on an LDS Church mission after fall semester. "When he returns, he should be ready to try to make the team," said Richard.
"Bronco Mendenhall called and assistant Barry Lamb, who recruits the area, stopped in to visit, which meant a lot to Stephen."
Meanwhile, an older brother, Richard, is in his final six months of a mission in Moscow, Russia, and also plans to walk on to BYU's football team upon his return. He also earned All-CIF honors at Canyon High. Both are wide receiver/defensive back candidates.
The Wirthlin brothers have careers that sandwich that of DiLuigi. Richard played and graduated before DiLuigi had his breakout year, leading Canyon to a win in the 2006 California Bowl. Stephen came after.
The Wirthlin family follows a similar path of many families with Utah roots where loyalties are split and passions run high. Joseph Wirthlin, the LDS general authority, played for the University of Utah and is a well-documented Ute fan who got close to Urban Meyer during his short stay in Salt Lake City. Joseph Wirthlin's brother, Richard, father to Richard and grandfather to the accident victim Stephen, was a professor of economics at BYU before going into private practice. That side of the family is die-hard blue.
While it remains to be seen if the Wirthlin sons will make BYU's roster in years to come, their father sees any and all opportunities as a blessing. "I appreciate, in a way you can only imagine, that I have sons whose top priority is to serve missions, then attend the greatest university in the world, BYU, and if it works out, to strap it on and play football. Playing for BYU would be a dream come true," said Richard.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Oregon State
by SMQ on May 24, 2008 7:08 PM EDT
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. From the school’s spring prospectus, a quick summary of the Beaver defense against the run:
That's, uh, pretty good: for the season, opposing offenses averaged about 83 yards less than their season average on the ground, and only UCLA, Cal and Oregon – strong running teams to begin with, and the latter two close Beaver wins – had any success at all trying to pound away. That’s how you get to be the number one run defense in the country (see the YouTube section below).
Here’s the other thing about the defense, again courtesy the spring prospectus:
That's one unusually healthy, monolithic starting lineup: the eleven regular first-teamers yielded only eight starts all season to backups, and every one of those regulars started at least ten of thirteen games. Now, print that out, take a red pen, and cross through all 89 starts by the front seven starters, as well as all ten by the strong safety, Drayton. What’s left is the corners, Lewis and Hughes, and the free safety, Aflava, and that’s all that returns from the second-best total defense (behind USC) in the Pac Ten. Smith, Van Orsow, Doggett, Darlin and LaRocque were all multi-year starters who were voted first or second-team all-Pac Ten as seniors.
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
The least you should know about Oregon State...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007: 9-4 (6-3 Pac Ten; 3rd)
2003-07: 39-24 (24-18 Pac Ten)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 26 • 46 • 47 • 47• 52</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>11 (8 Offense, 3 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
When I previewed the Beavers last year, this box went to Sammie Stroughter, so it might seem a little unfair to drop Stroughter – who earned an extra year after a knee injury in the fourth game – in favor of guard Jeremy Perry, who was hurt in the opener and also wound up with only three starts. What can I say? That’s what tipping the scales at 330 pounds (and not temporarily wigging out before the season) will get you. Perry was all-Pac Ten in 2006 and is still considered a first or second round pick in ‘09 despite the injury and despite playing a position that rarely lends itself to the big money rounds.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>In Other News...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oregon Agricultural College is the proud alma mater of Nobel Prize-winning chemist Linus Pauling, but orbital hybridization, the tetravalency of carbon and the formation of the concept of electronegativity are small potatoes next to the fish Corvallis let get away: feted animation guru Brad Bird attented Corvallis High School, only to bolt for a design school in California. Anyone who’s more down with the X-ray crystallography that made possible the discovery of the double helix in DNA than with The Iron Giant is just un-American, man.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>- - -
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
That leaves a huge learning curve. There are two guys on the defensive line, rising seniors Victor Butler and Slade Norris, who have a lot of playing time off the bench the last couple seasons and who actually finished 1-2 on the team in sacks last year (Butler had 10.5, Norris had nine). It’s clear why they were pass rush specialists, though – where Dorian Smith and Jeff Van Orsow each weighed in the 260-265 range, Norris is listed at 245 and Butler at 235, suggesting they’ll have a tougher time holding up against the every-down pounding of non-spread running games. I don’t know of any team as good as OSU was up front the last two years that could lose two all-conference ends and three all-conference linebackers and not expect a major drop off.
What’s the Same. Say what you will about OSU’s two-quarterback system, but you have to concede this for ‘08: it has to be better. Really, it has to be, since Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao threw more than twice as many interceptions as touchdowns against defenses other than Idaho State and combined for the highest interception percent, lowest touchdown percent, lowest yards per attempt and second-worst passer rating in the conference. Excluding the aforementioned scrimmage vs. Idaho State, Canfield threw an astounding 13 interceptions in his first five games, five in the loss to Arizona State alone; Moevao managed to win all four of his starts late in the season, but Canfield returned from a shoulder injury in the second quarter of the bowl win, played most of the game and finished with better numbers across the board.
Their struggles were reminiscent of Matt Moore’s mistake-prone debut in 2005, when he generally moved the offense but sabotaged the Beavers’ season by lobbing up 19 interceptions, most in the nation. He cut that number by almost a third in 2006, and OSU’s wins doubled, from five to ten. Given the attrition on defense is likely to put more pressure on the offense (last year, it was usually vice versa), they’ll need the same kind of improvement from Moevao and/or Canfield for the same effect.
The Greater the Stroughter, the Greater the Glory. It takes a really bizarre set of circumstances to constitute an even bigger unknown than an entirely new front seven, and so I give you Sammie Stroughter: from full-time return man his first two years to all-purpose receiving star in 2006 to preseason no-show to injury casualty to fifth-year senior whose jersey number is scheduled to be replaced with a big question mark. Stroughter came out of his self-imposed hiatus to play in three games last year, in which he came up empty against Cincinnati, predictably dominated Idaho State and played well against Arizona State (6 catches, 102 yards) before going down for the season with a knee injury.
There are no other playmakers on the offense: two other veteran receivers, the deliciously-named Anthony Wheat-Brown and Brandon Powers, graduated, as did three-time 1,200-yard workhorse Yvenson Bernard at running back. The quarterback situation being what it is, the only standing in the way of a cloud-of-dust fest with the new running back is Stroughter’s belated return to form.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. With Canfield’s shoulder still giving him problems, viva la Moevao!:
Canfield had surgery on his left throwing shoulder in January and won't participate in contact drills this spring. He is expected to be ready for the 2008 season.
[...]
"The doctor told me he could play another year like it was, but it was better to get it done for the long term," coach Mike Riley said.
With Canfield out, Moevao has a chance to solidify his hold on the starting job. [...]
"Lyle finished the season starting and he's going to enter spring with all the turns," Riley said. "He's going to enter fall camp taking the snaps. The only real thing I can say is he's our starting quarterback."
- - -
Take heed, young Lyle: many fortunes have been made by default: Lou Gehrig, Calvin Coolidge, Hitler’s interest in politics after rejection from art school. All of them ended splendidly. There is no shame in ‘I guess.’
Oregon State on You Tube. You know how you know the "number one rushing defense" thing wasn’t a fluke? In a crucial spot in a crucial game against then-undefeated, No. 2-ranked Cal last October:
<object height="285" width="345">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WCrMrfO_aUU&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WCrMrfO_aUU&hl=en" height="285" width="345"></object> </p> Either the Bears need to get a bigger short-yardage back, or Justin Forsett needs to do a few more squats. For the Seahawks, I mean.
See Also: OK, so Oregon State’s golf teams clinched last year’s Civil War Series for the Beavers, yeah? Type in "Oregon State golf," and the result is so, so much better than golf ... Incompetent officiating at the end of the Washington game ... And really, "Civil War" fans, you call this a fight? This is a fight.
Best-Case: Slow and steady finishes somewhat respectably in the race. OSU does not look like a contender for the Pac Ten title in any way, but it has finished toward the bottom of the AP’s top 25 the last two years, and teams used to winning a little don’t go away easily. The question is whether, amid so many departures, this is really the same team. Most of the schedule still looks lke a toss-up, which is nothing new, and the Beavers have proven extremely adept at winning those either-or games when they win the turnover margin. More maturity at quarterback and a veteran, run-friendly offensive line bodes well for that number, and for keeping the defensive noobs off the field, which puts seven wins squarely in reach. If they keep their head above water long enough, a late season upset or another bowl win could get them to eight wins for the third year in a row, which has never happened in school history.
Worst-Case: No...No, those Beavers are dead. I watched them die! The fact is, this year could get really ugly, really fast: in the first five games, Stanford is a strong upset threat, Penn State and USC are likely losses and Hawaii and Utah are potentially two of the toughest outs in the mid-major ranks. A 1-4 start is not at all out of the question for a team with so many holes, and who knows where the spiral goes from there with the meat of the Pac Ten schedule ahead. Riley’s worst season in his second go-round in Corvallis is 2005, when the Beavers were 5-6, 3-5 in the conference. Things have come a long, long way since the 1998 team in Riley’s first stint considered finishing 5-6 a breakthrough, but for the sketchy quarterbacking and defensive youth alone – not to mention the lack of proven skill talent on offense – the bad old days are very much a reality, temporarily.
Non-Binding Forecast: Avoid Complete Collapse or Bust. Bowl eligibility is about 50-50 unless there is some spectacular secret in the wings Riley saw fit to keep sheathed last year. Stroughter may be something like that, but even if he is, pessimism abounds for the rest of the skill positions on offense – quarterback foremost among them – and for the front seven on defense, which can’t possibly match last year’s success. Whatever good things can be said about the prospects here amount to the fact that Oregon State has been a solid program the last two years and Stanford, Arizona, Washington and Washington State haven’t. Very little separates any of them on paper, though, and if OSU has turned a corner in the long-term, that probably only means struggling to 6-6 this year when things could be much worse.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. From the school’s spring prospectus, a quick summary of the Beaver defense against the run:
That's, uh, pretty good: for the season, opposing offenses averaged about 83 yards less than their season average on the ground, and only UCLA, Cal and Oregon – strong running teams to begin with, and the latter two close Beaver wins – had any success at all trying to pound away. That’s how you get to be the number one run defense in the country (see the YouTube section below).
Here’s the other thing about the defense, again courtesy the spring prospectus:
That's one unusually healthy, monolithic starting lineup: the eleven regular first-teamers yielded only eight starts all season to backups, and every one of those regulars started at least ten of thirteen games. Now, print that out, take a red pen, and cross through all 89 starts by the front seven starters, as well as all ten by the strong safety, Drayton. What’s left is the corners, Lewis and Hughes, and the free safety, Aflava, and that’s all that returns from the second-best total defense (behind USC) in the Pac Ten. Smith, Van Orsow, Doggett, Darlin and LaRocque were all multi-year starters who were voted first or second-team all-Pac Ten as seniors.
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
2003-07: 39-24 (24-18 Pac Ten)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 26 • 46 • 47 • 47• 52</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>11 (8 Offense, 3 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
That leaves a huge learning curve. There are two guys on the defensive line, rising seniors Victor Butler and Slade Norris, who have a lot of playing time off the bench the last couple seasons and who actually finished 1-2 on the team in sacks last year (Butler had 10.5, Norris had nine). It’s clear why they were pass rush specialists, though – where Dorian Smith and Jeff Van Orsow each weighed in the 260-265 range, Norris is listed at 245 and Butler at 235, suggesting they’ll have a tougher time holding up against the every-down pounding of non-spread running games. I don’t know of any team as good as OSU was up front the last two years that could lose two all-conference ends and three all-conference linebackers and not expect a major drop off.
What’s the Same. Say what you will about OSU’s two-quarterback system, but you have to concede this for ‘08: it has to be better. Really, it has to be, since Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao threw more than twice as many interceptions as touchdowns against defenses other than Idaho State and combined for the highest interception percent, lowest touchdown percent, lowest yards per attempt and second-worst passer rating in the conference. Excluding the aforementioned scrimmage vs. Idaho State, Canfield threw an astounding 13 interceptions in his first five games, five in the loss to Arizona State alone; Moevao managed to win all four of his starts late in the season, but Canfield returned from a shoulder injury in the second quarter of the bowl win, played most of the game and finished with better numbers across the board.
Their struggles were reminiscent of Matt Moore’s mistake-prone debut in 2005, when he generally moved the offense but sabotaged the Beavers’ season by lobbing up 19 interceptions, most in the nation. He cut that number by almost a third in 2006, and OSU’s wins doubled, from five to ten. Given the attrition on defense is likely to put more pressure on the offense (last year, it was usually vice versa), they’ll need the same kind of improvement from Moevao and/or Canfield for the same effect.
The Greater the Stroughter, the Greater the Glory. It takes a really bizarre set of circumstances to constitute an even bigger unknown than an entirely new front seven, and so I give you Sammie Stroughter: from full-time return man his first two years to all-purpose receiving star in 2006 to preseason no-show to injury casualty to fifth-year senior whose jersey number is scheduled to be replaced with a big question mark. Stroughter came out of his self-imposed hiatus to play in three games last year, in which he came up empty against Cincinnati, predictably dominated Idaho State and played well against Arizona State (6 catches, 102 yards) before going down for the season with a knee injury.
There are no other playmakers on the offense: two other veteran receivers, the deliciously-named Anthony Wheat-Brown and Brandon Powers, graduated, as did three-time 1,200-yard workhorse Yvenson Bernard at running back. The quarterback situation being what it is, the only standing in the way of a cloud-of-dust fest with the new running back is Stroughter’s belated return to form.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. With Canfield’s shoulder still giving him problems, viva la Moevao!:
Canfield had surgery on his left throwing shoulder in January and won't participate in contact drills this spring. He is expected to be ready for the 2008 season.
[...]
"The doctor told me he could play another year like it was, but it was better to get it done for the long term," coach Mike Riley said.
With Canfield out, Moevao has a chance to solidify his hold on the starting job. [...]
"Lyle finished the season starting and he's going to enter spring with all the turns," Riley said. "He's going to enter fall camp taking the snaps. The only real thing I can say is he's our starting quarterback."
- - -
Take heed, young Lyle: many fortunes have been made by default: Lou Gehrig, Calvin Coolidge, Hitler’s interest in politics after rejection from art school. All of them ended splendidly. There is no shame in ‘I guess.’
Oregon State on You Tube. You know how you know the "number one rushing defense" thing wasn’t a fluke? In a crucial spot in a crucial game against then-undefeated, No. 2-ranked Cal last October:
<object height="285" width="345">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WCrMrfO_aUU&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/WCrMrfO_aUU&hl=en" height="285" width="345"></object> </p> Either the Bears need to get a bigger short-yardage back, or Justin Forsett needs to do a few more squats. For the Seahawks, I mean.
See Also: OK, so Oregon State’s golf teams clinched last year’s Civil War Series for the Beavers, yeah? Type in "Oregon State golf," and the result is so, so much better than golf ... Incompetent officiating at the end of the Washington game ... And really, "Civil War" fans, you call this a fight? This is a fight.
Best-Case: Slow and steady finishes somewhat respectably in the race. OSU does not look like a contender for the Pac Ten title in any way, but it has finished toward the bottom of the AP’s top 25 the last two years, and teams used to winning a little don’t go away easily. The question is whether, amid so many departures, this is really the same team. Most of the schedule still looks lke a toss-up, which is nothing new, and the Beavers have proven extremely adept at winning those either-or games when they win the turnover margin. More maturity at quarterback and a veteran, run-friendly offensive line bodes well for that number, and for keeping the defensive noobs off the field, which puts seven wins squarely in reach. If they keep their head above water long enough, a late season upset or another bowl win could get them to eight wins for the third year in a row, which has never happened in school history.
Worst-Case: No...No, those Beavers are dead. I watched them die! The fact is, this year could get really ugly, really fast: in the first five games, Stanford is a strong upset threat, Penn State and USC are likely losses and Hawaii and Utah are potentially two of the toughest outs in the mid-major ranks. A 1-4 start is not at all out of the question for a team with so many holes, and who knows where the spiral goes from there with the meat of the Pac Ten schedule ahead. Riley’s worst season in his second go-round in Corvallis is 2005, when the Beavers were 5-6, 3-5 in the conference. Things have come a long, long way since the 1998 team in Riley’s first stint considered finishing 5-6 a breakthrough, but for the sketchy quarterbacking and defensive youth alone – not to mention the lack of proven skill talent on offense – the bad old days are very much a reality, temporarily.
Non-Binding Forecast: Avoid Complete Collapse or Bust. Bowl eligibility is about 50-50 unless there is some spectacular secret in the wings Riley saw fit to keep sheathed last year. Stroughter may be something like that, but even if he is, pessimism abounds for the rest of the skill positions on offense – quarterback foremost among them – and for the front seven on defense, which can’t possibly match last year’s success. Whatever good things can be said about the prospects here amount to the fact that Oregon State has been a solid program the last two years and Stanford, Arizona, Washington and Washington State haven’t. Very little separates any of them on paper, though, and if OSU has turned a corner in the long-term, that probably only means struggling to 6-6 this year when things could be much worse.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Contenders: Florida
by SMQ on May 26, 2008 5:03 AM EDT
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
A couple weeks ago, I started to get into a really, really foolish argument with a Georgia fan who argued on his Sporting News-hosted "blog" that "Tim Tebow is not a quarterback." Not that he isn’t a good quarterback, or, in this specific case, that he’s not a quarterback the NFL will be particularly interested in next April or in 2010 despite the Tebow Child’s prototype size and strength and ability to make panties disappear while curing malaria with his smile. But rather that Tebow’s fundamental duties in Florida’s offense are not akin to those of a typical passer, that he is a runner first, and that Urban Meyer’s offense is a sort of gimmick that takes the heavy mental lifting out of the hands of its "quarterback" and is ultimately a liability to his overall development. Because he occasionally resembles a single-wing tailback and carried the ball twice as often as any other player in Florida’s offense, Tebow just doesn’t do what a real quarterback does.
Hey coach, I'm just another system guy.
- - -
I'm not sure how widespread that sort of sentiment is even among Gator haters, or whether they think such naysaying actually matters beyond Tebow’s pro prospects or their overwhelming need to hate. But, as Saurian Sagacity pointed out after Tebow’s H*i*m*n win last December, the "one-trick pony" skepticism isn’t confined to obscure Web wingnuts who refer to the kid as "Teblow." At least a few mainstream voters for the trophy had the same impulse.
I'm not sure how widespread that sort of sentiment is even among Gator haters, or whether they think such naysaying actually matters beyond Tebow’s pro prospects or their overwhelming need to hate. But, as Saurian Sagacity pointed out after Tebow’s H*i*m*n win last December, the "one-trick pony" skepticism isn’t confined to obscure Web wingnuts who refer to the kid as "Teblow." At least a few mainstream voters for the trophy had the same impulse.
As Sagacity also pointed out, "impulse" is the right word, because by any reasonable measure, Tebow’s debut – as a sophomore, a first-year starter in the most vaunted conference in the country – was among the greatest single statistical seasons any quarterback has ever produced. This might be true even if you take away his 900 yards and SEC-record 23 touchdowns rushing: Tebow was second in the nation in pass efficiency, first in yards per attempt, second in touchdown percent. His passer rating was almost 30 points higher than any other quarterback in the SEC, two of whom (Erik Ainge and Andre Woodson) were career starters who went in the draft, and 45 points higher than classmate and fellow scout favorite Matt Stafford's. Tebow had by far the best TD:INT ratio in the conference (32:6) and the best completion percentage. His average attempt went for a full two yards more than the league's number two YPA (Stafford). He was not only the best quarterback in the conference – he was the best by a mile. Run the numbers back, and he was the best of the decade. Saurian Sagacity ran them back against other H*i*m*n-winning quarterbacks in the last decade – again, only the passing stats – just to show how overwhelming Tebow’s production actually was:
That rating is phenomenal by any standard. Again, as a sophomore, and again, before his contributions to the running game are accounted for. I don’t think anyone who watched him play against Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida State or Michigan needed all of that to understand: Tebow is the closest thing going at the moment to a force of nature, and as long as he’s in the lineup, Florida is a contender to outscore anyone.
Bow Down. Not that anyone needs any kind of convincing about the offense, the best in the SEC in total and scoring yards last year – a good 61 yards and 13 points per game better than the unit than won the mythical championship in ‘06 – and back with Percy Harvin, Cornelius Ingram and Louis Murphy and maybe even a real running back, Emmanuel Moody, at Tebow’s disposal. Phil Trautwein’s return from a medical redshirt gives them four starters back on the line. This bunch hit 45 points seven times and averaged 24 in its four losses – no questions there.
The heavy lifting in the Gators’ candidacy is on the other side: the defense was overall the school’s worst in the modern era, mainly because it was dead last in the SEC in passing yards allowed and next-to-last in pass efficiency D. That kind of thing happens when there are nine new starters and prominent members of the secondary include two true freshmen, a redshirt freshman and two true sophomores with no prior starting experience. There’s a flipside to that, of course: noobs Joe Haden (last year’s third-ranked incoming "athlete" by Rivals) and Major Wright (second-ranked incoming safety) won starting jobs immediately, took their lumps, showed a lot of the predicted promise and go into their sophomore campaigns as legit all-SEC candidates. This is an area that can and should go from weakness to strength very quickly.
As sketchy as the young DBs were, it’s easy to overlook that the front seven was a strength already – UF led the SEC against the run in both yards per game and yards per carry, and did it with a similarly fresh-faced group: the linebackers were two sophomores and a freshman, and hyped young ‘uns Jermaine Cunningham and Justin Trattou combined for 17.5 tackles for loss from the ends, mostly off the bench. Add to two alleged five-star monsters – end Carlos Dunlap, who played sparingly as a true freshman, and Omar Hunter, a 300-pound tackle out of Georgia who looks like he has to be led to the field in a Hannibal Lecter mask and straightjacket – and there is at least as much talent on the field as it should be legal for any one team to have.
Bust Out. The last time we saw all those blue chip’d recruiting stars, it wasn’t so pretty:
<object height="285" width="355">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/xFIAoIPSKek&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/xFIAoIPSKek&hl=en" height="285" width="355"></object> </p> Among those caught in that rainstorm on a number of occasions were Haden and Wright, as well as their less heralded comrades Wondy Pierre-Louis, Jacques Rickerson and Dorien Munroe, whose respective ceilings are considered to be significantly lower. By conference standards, they’re still a good way from the middle of the pack against the pass, much less the sky high rankings that accompanied the ‘06 championship run.
The other disturbing part of that clip was the porousness of the offensive line, which was not a trend – opponents had 13 sacks all season, one per game, vastly improved from ‘06 and one of the lowest numbers in the country – but could provide a template for how to disrupt Tebow. Meyer’s scheme doesn’t waste receivers as blockers, and the other teams with the personnel to bring the heat on a consistent basis, LSU and Auburn, held the Gators to their lowest point totals of the season in losses; Georgia got to Tebow six times, almost half the entire total UF allowed for the year. It’s something that Tebow still only threw one pick in those four games (and that on a good throw that bounced off his receiver’s hands at a critical moment against LSU), but teams with the goods in the pass rush, like Miami, Tennessee and especially LSU and Georgia, will have a clear target unless Moody earns their respect.
They Burn Freshmen, Don’t They? Voters aren’t very forward-looking, as a group. Last year, plenty of polls were willing to put the Gators in the top five after their mythical championship season despite massive gaps in the lineup. There are fewer holes in this year’s depth chart, the first made up almost entirely of Meyer recruits, but the early consensus is taking a wait-and-see approach toto the alleged improvement on defense: of the five major outlets that have put out early ballots, only College Football News has Florida in the top five, at number four. None have the Gators ahead of Georgia.
The only reason for that unanimity is the way last year ended, which seems to me quite an over-reliance on momentum. With Auburn and Alabama rotating off the schedule, Tennessee breaking in a new quarterback off three straight losses to Meyer-coached teams and LSU and Miami coming to Gainesville with their own questions at quarterback, the Cocktail Party has all the makings of a winner-take-all affair, a showdown not only for the SEC East but for the conference at large and the driver’s seat position in the BCS that accompanies it. Which way you lean in that affair probably depends on whether you buy the idea that Florida’s defense is in for inevitable improvement, and that the athletes there ensure the progress will be substantial enough to keep Tebow from facing must-throw situations to keep pace against defenses coming after him out of starting blocks. Either way, I lean toward thinking the projected UGA-UF winner has a better case for the top spot than anyone else, and I don’t see why the consensus mainstream answer to that scenario so far is 'Georgia.'
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
A couple weeks ago, I started to get into a really, really foolish argument with a Georgia fan who argued on his Sporting News-hosted "blog" that "Tim Tebow is not a quarterback." Not that he isn’t a good quarterback, or, in this specific case, that he’s not a quarterback the NFL will be particularly interested in next April or in 2010 despite the Tebow Child’s prototype size and strength and ability to make panties disappear while curing malaria with his smile. But rather that Tebow’s fundamental duties in Florida’s offense are not akin to those of a typical passer, that he is a runner first, and that Urban Meyer’s offense is a sort of gimmick that takes the heavy mental lifting out of the hands of its "quarterback" and is ultimately a liability to his overall development. Because he occasionally resembles a single-wing tailback and carried the ball twice as often as any other player in Florida’s offense, Tebow just doesn’t do what a real quarterback does.
Hey coach, I'm just another system guy.
- - -
I'm not sure how widespread that sort of sentiment is even among Gator haters, or whether they think such naysaying actually matters beyond Tebow’s pro prospects or their overwhelming need to hate. But, as Saurian Sagacity pointed out after Tebow’s H*i*m*n win last December, the "one-trick pony" skepticism isn’t confined to obscure Web wingnuts who refer to the kid as "Teblow." At least a few mainstream voters for the trophy had the same impulse.
I'm not sure how widespread that sort of sentiment is even among Gator haters, or whether they think such naysaying actually matters beyond Tebow’s pro prospects or their overwhelming need to hate. But, as Saurian Sagacity pointed out after Tebow’s H*i*m*n win last December, the "one-trick pony" skepticism isn’t confined to obscure Web wingnuts who refer to the kid as "Teblow." At least a few mainstream voters for the trophy had the same impulse.
As Sagacity also pointed out, "impulse" is the right word, because by any reasonable measure, Tebow’s debut – as a sophomore, a first-year starter in the most vaunted conference in the country – was among the greatest single statistical seasons any quarterback has ever produced. This might be true even if you take away his 900 yards and SEC-record 23 touchdowns rushing: Tebow was second in the nation in pass efficiency, first in yards per attempt, second in touchdown percent. His passer rating was almost 30 points higher than any other quarterback in the SEC, two of whom (Erik Ainge and Andre Woodson) were career starters who went in the draft, and 45 points higher than classmate and fellow scout favorite Matt Stafford's. Tebow had by far the best TD:INT ratio in the conference (32:6) and the best completion percentage. His average attempt went for a full two yards more than the league's number two YPA (Stafford). He was not only the best quarterback in the conference – he was the best by a mile. Run the numbers back, and he was the best of the decade. Saurian Sagacity ran them back against other H*i*m*n-winning quarterbacks in the last decade – again, only the passing stats – just to show how overwhelming Tebow’s production actually was:
That rating is phenomenal by any standard. Again, as a sophomore, and again, before his contributions to the running game are accounted for. I don’t think anyone who watched him play against Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida State or Michigan needed all of that to understand: Tebow is the closest thing going at the moment to a force of nature, and as long as he’s in the lineup, Florida is a contender to outscore anyone.
Bow Down. Not that anyone needs any kind of convincing about the offense, the best in the SEC in total and scoring yards last year – a good 61 yards and 13 points per game better than the unit than won the mythical championship in ‘06 – and back with Percy Harvin, Cornelius Ingram and Louis Murphy and maybe even a real running back, Emmanuel Moody, at Tebow’s disposal. Phil Trautwein’s return from a medical redshirt gives them four starters back on the line. This bunch hit 45 points seven times and averaged 24 in its four losses – no questions there.
The heavy lifting in the Gators’ candidacy is on the other side: the defense was overall the school’s worst in the modern era, mainly because it was dead last in the SEC in passing yards allowed and next-to-last in pass efficiency D. That kind of thing happens when there are nine new starters and prominent members of the secondary include two true freshmen, a redshirt freshman and two true sophomores with no prior starting experience. There’s a flipside to that, of course: noobs Joe Haden (last year’s third-ranked incoming "athlete" by Rivals) and Major Wright (second-ranked incoming safety) won starting jobs immediately, took their lumps, showed a lot of the predicted promise and go into their sophomore campaigns as legit all-SEC candidates. This is an area that can and should go from weakness to strength very quickly.
As sketchy as the young DBs were, it’s easy to overlook that the front seven was a strength already – UF led the SEC against the run in both yards per game and yards per carry, and did it with a similarly fresh-faced group: the linebackers were two sophomores and a freshman, and hyped young ‘uns Jermaine Cunningham and Justin Trattou combined for 17.5 tackles for loss from the ends, mostly off the bench. Add to two alleged five-star monsters – end Carlos Dunlap, who played sparingly as a true freshman, and Omar Hunter, a 300-pound tackle out of Georgia who looks like he has to be led to the field in a Hannibal Lecter mask and straightjacket – and there is at least as much talent on the field as it should be legal for any one team to have.
Bust Out. The last time we saw all those blue chip’d recruiting stars, it wasn’t so pretty:
<object height="285" width="355">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/xFIAoIPSKek&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/xFIAoIPSKek&hl=en" height="285" width="355"></object> </p> Among those caught in that rainstorm on a number of occasions were Haden and Wright, as well as their less heralded comrades Wondy Pierre-Louis, Jacques Rickerson and Dorien Munroe, whose respective ceilings are considered to be significantly lower. By conference standards, they’re still a good way from the middle of the pack against the pass, much less the sky high rankings that accompanied the ‘06 championship run.
The other disturbing part of that clip was the porousness of the offensive line, which was not a trend – opponents had 13 sacks all season, one per game, vastly improved from ‘06 and one of the lowest numbers in the country – but could provide a template for how to disrupt Tebow. Meyer’s scheme doesn’t waste receivers as blockers, and the other teams with the personnel to bring the heat on a consistent basis, LSU and Auburn, held the Gators to their lowest point totals of the season in losses; Georgia got to Tebow six times, almost half the entire total UF allowed for the year. It’s something that Tebow still only threw one pick in those four games (and that on a good throw that bounced off his receiver’s hands at a critical moment against LSU), but teams with the goods in the pass rush, like Miami, Tennessee and especially LSU and Georgia, will have a clear target unless Moody earns their respect.
They Burn Freshmen, Don’t They? Voters aren’t very forward-looking, as a group. Last year, plenty of polls were willing to put the Gators in the top five after their mythical championship season despite massive gaps in the lineup. There are fewer holes in this year’s depth chart, the first made up almost entirely of Meyer recruits, but the early consensus is taking a wait-and-see approach toto the alleged improvement on defense: of the five major outlets that have put out early ballots, only College Football News has Florida in the top five, at number four. None have the Gators ahead of Georgia.
The only reason for that unanimity is the way last year ended, which seems to me quite an over-reliance on momentum. With Auburn and Alabama rotating off the schedule, Tennessee breaking in a new quarterback off three straight losses to Meyer-coached teams and LSU and Miami coming to Gainesville with their own questions at quarterback, the Cocktail Party has all the makings of a winner-take-all affair, a showdown not only for the SEC East but for the conference at large and the driver’s seat position in the BCS that accompanies it. Which way you lean in that affair probably depends on whether you buy the idea that Florida’s defense is in for inevitable improvement, and that the athletes there ensure the progress will be substantial enough to keep Tebow from facing must-throw situations to keep pace against defenses coming after him out of starting blocks. Either way, I lean toward thinking the projected UGA-UF winner has a better case for the top spot than anyone else, and I don’t see why the consensus mainstream answer to that scenario so far is 'Georgia.'
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Mid-Major Monday Wonders If It's Time to Abandon Ship
by SMQ on May 26, 2008 6:37 PM EDT
Obscurity is just part of the gig at Navy, at least when you’re not threatening to bust one of the big money bowls, so there’s not really anything surprising about how long it took Paul Johnson to get enough attention to land a fatter gig like Georgia Tech. Most casual fans are still probably only glancingly familiar with the rumpled, gray-haired old pro, even though he was the architect of one of the great program turnarounds of the decade:
That last big spike, beginning at the lowest point of the 40-year span and ending at the highest, represents Johnson’s tenure from 2002-07. And therein lies the problem: with Navy Football just off its most sustained run of success since 1905-08, there’s apparently nowhere to go but down. Longtime Johnson assistant Ken Niumatalolo is supposed to represent the continuation of the regime, like Raul Castro with a headset, but the historical trend is obvious: the Midshipmen rose in the late seventies under George Welsh and fell back to sub-mediocrity when he left for Virginia; after a decade of hard luck, they rose in the mid-nineties under Charlie Weatherbie and fell again, hard, when he tried to move from the wishbone to a more balanced offense at the turn of the century. Weatherbie paid for his tinkering with a 1-18 record in 2000-01 and a pink slip with three games to go in the nightmare ‘01 season. Under Johnson, the Middies rose higher, for longer, than they had in decades, and stand among the most consistently competitive third-tier outfits in the country. But this is not the kind of place you can set on a solid footing with a few years’ improvement in recruiting. Most of the time over the last 40 years, Navy has toiled in the neighborhood of four or five wins, and only dreamed of the polls, where it’s finished once (No. 24 by the AP in 2004) since Roger Staubach graduated. So: does the transition mean another downturn is inevitable?
It’s hard to quantify the impact Johnson’s departure will have on the offense, which is very much Johnson’s system but will not substantially change under Niumatalolo, who was Johnson’s understudy at Hawaii in the early nineties (yes: before they ran and shot on the island, they optioned) and in two different stints at the Academy. This is probably wise: the Midshipmen have long run about seven times for every pass (they’ve finished first nationally in rushing yards and last or nearly last in passing three years in a row), but 2007 was the year the flexbone passed the threshold from “gimmick” to full-fledged threat. The Middies topped the 300-yard mark ten times, including games against top 30 defenses at Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Utah, and were never held below 24 points or four yards per carry as a team. The result was easily the highest per game rushing total (349 yards per game) of any team this decade and a new academy high of 39 points per game.
I know he's the boss, Ken, but this is, uh, probably not the most ringing endorsement.
- - -
In this case, I’m not sure the abstract notion of “talent” has any meaning, since Navy is always presumed to be at a disadvantage from a pure bodily-kinesthetic standpoint, anyway, and it never matters against anyone on the mediocre schedule except vastly bigger-stronger-faster Notre Dame. The Midshipmen led the nation in rushing several times under Weatherbie, too, although not to nearly the same degree it has in the last three years of Johnson’s tenure. For continuity’s sake, Nuimatalolo must be satisfied to have quarterback/Polynesian fish Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada en tow, since the option requires a certain rhythm and comfort level the multiply-voweled senior certainly found last year. But this system is astonishingly plug-n-play, and consistent enough that even the backup quarterback, Jarod Bryant, came close to gaining 500 and scored five touchdowns in ‘07 in what amounted to less than four full games’ worth of action; fullbacks Eric Kettani (who returns) and Adam Ballard (who doesn’t) had one negative carry between them in 293 attempts and averaged 5.3 a pop just plunging into the line play after play. All three regular slotbacks were over seven per carry, which was not particularly unusual dating back to 2004. None of that will be any different on the surface.
When you talk about the intangible “feel” a quarterback has for running the option, though, the same principle has to be applied equally to the playcaller, as convincingly detailed by Blue Gray Sky after Notre Dame’s loss to the Middies last November. The flexbone is an extremely simple concept, based around a few plays off the same inside action to the fullback, but as BGS shows, because its execution is based on creating indecision and surprise, it’s extremely dependent on the in-game agility of the coach to adjust to the defense and mix and match different blocking schemes at the right time. Johnson was a master of this particular domain: the proof is not only in the tremendous consistency and success his outmanned teams showed within a very limited set of options in the running game, but in the fact that they also regularly led or nearly led the nation in yards per completion against defenses lulled to sleep by the repetition of the option. Like so many other things in life, it’s all about timing.
Nuimatalolo’s burden is to recreate that rhythm. In the short-term, with a fairly experienced team, his prospects are good, especially since Kaheaku-Enhada emerged as just the kind of slippery, faster-than-he-looks threat the system requires. Past this crop of players familiar with success, though, nothing about Navy’s talent level or long term trajectory is in the corner of sustainability.
Obscurity is just part of the gig at Navy, at least when you’re not threatening to bust one of the big money bowls, so there’s not really anything surprising about how long it took Paul Johnson to get enough attention to land a fatter gig like Georgia Tech. Most casual fans are still probably only glancingly familiar with the rumpled, gray-haired old pro, even though he was the architect of one of the great program turnarounds of the decade:
That last big spike, beginning at the lowest point of the 40-year span and ending at the highest, represents Johnson’s tenure from 2002-07. And therein lies the problem: with Navy Football just off its most sustained run of success since 1905-08, there’s apparently nowhere to go but down. Longtime Johnson assistant Ken Niumatalolo is supposed to represent the continuation of the regime, like Raul Castro with a headset, but the historical trend is obvious: the Midshipmen rose in the late seventies under George Welsh and fell back to sub-mediocrity when he left for Virginia; after a decade of hard luck, they rose in the mid-nineties under Charlie Weatherbie and fell again, hard, when he tried to move from the wishbone to a more balanced offense at the turn of the century. Weatherbie paid for his tinkering with a 1-18 record in 2000-01 and a pink slip with three games to go in the nightmare ‘01 season. Under Johnson, the Middies rose higher, for longer, than they had in decades, and stand among the most consistently competitive third-tier outfits in the country. But this is not the kind of place you can set on a solid footing with a few years’ improvement in recruiting. Most of the time over the last 40 years, Navy has toiled in the neighborhood of four or five wins, and only dreamed of the polls, where it’s finished once (No. 24 by the AP in 2004) since Roger Staubach graduated. So: does the transition mean another downturn is inevitable?
It’s hard to quantify the impact Johnson’s departure will have on the offense, which is very much Johnson’s system but will not substantially change under Niumatalolo, who was Johnson’s understudy at Hawaii in the early nineties (yes: before they ran and shot on the island, they optioned) and in two different stints at the Academy. This is probably wise: the Midshipmen have long run about seven times for every pass (they’ve finished first nationally in rushing yards and last or nearly last in passing three years in a row), but 2007 was the year the flexbone passed the threshold from “gimmick” to full-fledged threat. The Middies topped the 300-yard mark ten times, including games against top 30 defenses at Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Utah, and were never held below 24 points or four yards per carry as a team. The result was easily the highest per game rushing total (349 yards per game) of any team this decade and a new academy high of 39 points per game.
I know he's the boss, Ken, but this is, uh, probably not the most ringing endorsement.
- - -
In this case, I’m not sure the abstract notion of “talent” has any meaning, since Navy is always presumed to be at a disadvantage from a pure bodily-kinesthetic standpoint, anyway, and it never matters against anyone on the mediocre schedule except vastly bigger-stronger-faster Notre Dame. The Midshipmen led the nation in rushing several times under Weatherbie, too, although not to nearly the same degree it has in the last three years of Johnson’s tenure. For continuity’s sake, Nuimatalolo must be satisfied to have quarterback/Polynesian fish Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada en tow, since the option requires a certain rhythm and comfort level the multiply-voweled senior certainly found last year. But this system is astonishingly plug-n-play, and consistent enough that even the backup quarterback, Jarod Bryant, came close to gaining 500 and scored five touchdowns in ‘07 in what amounted to less than four full games’ worth of action; fullbacks Eric Kettani (who returns) and Adam Ballard (who doesn’t) had one negative carry between them in 293 attempts and averaged 5.3 a pop just plunging into the line play after play. All three regular slotbacks were over seven per carry, which was not particularly unusual dating back to 2004. None of that will be any different on the surface.
When you talk about the intangible “feel” a quarterback has for running the option, though, the same principle has to be applied equally to the playcaller, as convincingly detailed by Blue Gray Sky after Notre Dame’s loss to the Middies last November. The flexbone is an extremely simple concept, based around a few plays off the same inside action to the fullback, but as BGS shows, because its execution is based on creating indecision and surprise, it’s extremely dependent on the in-game agility of the coach to adjust to the defense and mix and match different blocking schemes at the right time. Johnson was a master of this particular domain: the proof is not only in the tremendous consistency and success his outmanned teams showed within a very limited set of options in the running game, but in the fact that they also regularly led or nearly led the nation in yards per completion against defenses lulled to sleep by the repetition of the option. Like so many other things in life, it’s all about timing.
Nuimatalolo’s burden is to recreate that rhythm. In the short-term, with a fairly experienced team, his prospects are good, especially since Kaheaku-Enhada emerged as just the kind of slippery, faster-than-he-looks threat the system requires. Past this crop of players familiar with success, though, nothing about Navy’s talent level or long term trajectory is in the corner of sustainability.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Return of John Holmes
Posted May 28th 2008 9:00AM by Charles Rich
Filed under: West Virginia Football, Big East, NCAA FB Police Blotter
I'm talking about the West Virginia linebacker who was dismissed from the team in February after being charged with possession and intent to distribute marijuana. You didn't think I meant that other John Holmes?
At the time, the charges against Holmes and two other Mountaineer players were felony charges. All three were immediately dismissed from the team. Since then one player has pleaded not guilty and awaits a trial in late July. Another player plea bargained to misdemeanor possession and conspiracy to possess marijuana. He received two years probation.
Holmes had his charges reduced to misdemeanor possession. Of the three, only Holmes may be allowed back on the team.
Of the three, Holmes was the only one to play in all 13 games. That's just a coincidence
Filed under: West Virginia Football, Big East, NCAA FB Police Blotter
At the time, the charges against Holmes and two other Mountaineer players were felony charges. All three were immediately dismissed from the team. Since then one player has pleaded not guilty and awaits a trial in late July. Another player plea bargained to misdemeanor possession and conspiracy to possess marijuana. He received two years probation.
Holmes had his charges reduced to misdemeanor possession. Of the three, only Holmes may be allowed back on the team.
"It was a case of being with the wrong people at the wrong time," [West Virginia Head Coach Bill] Stewart said of Holmes' involvement in the matter. "He's paid a high price for it, an expensive price. It's come as a high cost to him."
Stewart isn't saying it's a done deal. Holmes has to meet all requirements leading up to training camp in August he will be allowed back. Holmes had no prior incidents with the law. The other two players, however, were given "no chance" of returning to the team.
Of the three, Holmes was the only one to play in all 13 games. That's just a coincidence
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Colorado
by SMQ on May 29, 2008 9:36 AM EDT
What’s Changed. The offense goes from impossibly young and inexperienced to just young, more or less: though inconsistent and ranked in the bottom third of the conference by every conventional measure last year, there are sophomores at every position who can properly be described as “battle-tested” – Cody Hawkins at quarterback, Demetrius Sumler and Brian Lockridge at running back, Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith at receiver, freshman all-American Ryan Miller and converted tight end Nate Solder on the line. Not that I have any good idea what to make of them as a group after their first year, which was spent teetering on the brink between breakout success (27, 31 and 65 points in wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Nebraska) and maddening growing pains (20, 14 and 10 points in losses to Kansas State, Kansas and Missouri in a four-week span, followed by a blown 21-0 halftime lead in a loss to last place Iowa State).
The youth movement suggests they should be better, but from that array of unpredictability, what’s the baseline? Certainly they don’t expect to score 65 on the Huskers again, any more than they expect to be held under 200 total yards in a 45-point rout against Missouri.
For an offense with no above-average playmakers whatsoever, the key most of the time was the consistency of Cody Hawkins, which was itself a kind of cyclical beast – Hawkins’ performance seemed to work in conjunction with the success of the running game:
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
The least you should know about Colorado...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007: 6-7 (4-4 Big 12; 3rd/North)
2003-07: 28-35 (18-24 Big 12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 49 • 43 • 48 • 32 • 15</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>13 (5 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
Probably the best thing that could happen for Colorado is that incoming tailback savior Darrell Scott assume this position from the get-go. Until then, it belongs to another Los Angeles transplant, defensive tackle George "The Rabid Goldfish" Hypolite, a likely first day pick next April and the only returning Buffalo who was even honorable mention all-Big 12 in 2007. He has 18 tackles for loss over two years as the anchor of the most respectable unit on the team; his last name sounds like a vitamin formula for infants, but you’d never say that to his face.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>I’m Probably the Only One Who Notices...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
Word up, big love, mad props, etc. to the CU sports propaganda department for one gem of a post-spring prospectus, the most detailed, data-packed, user-friendly animal of its breed. The intricacy of the minutiae presented here is far beyond anyone’s practical use – first down tendencies, complete spring statistics over three scrimmages, offensive line statistics, pages and pagese of roster breakdowns, player-by-player details on pending graduation status, and a short section called "expanded punting," for starters. I’d hate to be the guy delivering the multi-volume tome that must be the actual media guide in July.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>- - -
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
That’s somewhat chicken-and-egg, depending on the offense, but given its reliance on play-action in the games I watched (vs. Colorado State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Alabama), Colorado’s attempts at balance start on the ground and dictate Hawkins’ performance accordingly. In that respect, the most important player this fall is an unknown: Darrell Scott is the running back everybody wanted and CU actually landed, almost singlehandedly breaking a debilitating recruiting slump (see box below) in the wake of the hookers-n-rape scandal under Gary Barnett. In all likelihood, a backfield with Sumler and/or Lockridge will be just adequate most of the time, and occasionally stuffed, as it was last year; Scott, on the other hand, has the hype of a franchise guy who can turn the entire offense around. This can be a very good offense with one reliable, central workhorse.
What’s the Same. Defensively, Hawkins’ staff hasn’t done much yet to overturn the trend begun under Gary Barnett:
There are a few exceptions, but in the least three years, especially, the Buffs can be counted on to be a little above average against the run, a little below average against the pass, and just about average overall. The eight starters back off last year’s defense – three on the line, two linebackers, three in the secondary – should fall right back into the pattern they perpetuated last year. Other than truly terrible games against the pass in 50-point efforts by Missouri and Nebraska (big yards by Baylor and Texas Tech were a little inflated and were accompanied by multiple interceptions) and a porous run D against Kansas State, that form held.
If it’s going to improve, it will probably come in the form of sacks (a meager 11 in the last ten games) and in the secondary, where the three starters are backed by four other guys who have played a good bit. But aside from maybe running back-turned-tackle George Hypolite, nobody remotely stands out, even in terms of something like recruiting hype, as a catalyst for much improvement outside of the general osmosis of becoming upperclassmen.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. The Buffs basically recited their ABCs last spring because there were no healthy offensive linemen and a lot of redshirt freshmen at the skill positions, etc. Stocked with the fruits of eight offensive linemen from the 2007 class (all redshirts except Miller), a completely intact coaching staff and a quarterback with actual on-field experience, Papa Hawkins let loose this year with the more advanced sections of the playbook:
The most significant change during spring drills came on the offensive side of the ball. With the players now more accustomed to the system on offense, and with the timing (game clock) rules changing for the fourth time in as many years, it was time to take things up a notch. The coaches instituted a no-huddle offense, one that will produce more plays and keep the defense from making wholesale substitutions. It figures to be particularly a big hit in home games, when the visitor isn’t used to the altitude at Folsom Field. In fact, Hawkins had hoped to install it a year ago, but the offense hadn’t progressed enough for the staff to be comfortable with it.
One of the major keys to the no-huddle in experienced leadership at quarterback, as CU now has that with Cody Hawkins entrenched as the starter. Signals coming in from the other quarterbacks to call the plays from offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich will keep them involved in the happenings as well, and both Nick Nelson and Matt Ballenger did well in the spring. The pair shined on the field as well when Hawkins was one of the two learning the signals and sending them in. This alone already has the offense well ahead of this time a year ago, which is important since the offense as a whole is still very young.
- - -
The “no-huddle,” or some version thereof, is always good for some “look out, they’re taking the reigns off” articles by content-starved columnists in the spring, though almost no one actually runs it in a live game outside of the occasional two-minute drill. The popular “check with me” described here doesn’t usually shorten time between snaps and restricts substitution by the offense as well. But, you know, more power to ‘em – just keep those wildly gesturing backup quarterbacks away from Bill Belichick and Charlie Weis.
Colorado on You Tube. The Buffs led 1-8 Iowa State 21-0 at the half last November before getting stopped on fourth down on the first possession of the second half and giving up 31 unanswered points. And then, well, see if you can figure out the ending:
<object height="285" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/neKk-xb1_4A&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/neKk-xb1_4A&hl=en" height="285" width="345"></object> </p> Actually, the Iowa State play-by-play guys were on top of it: in Division I Football, brother, you gotta snap the ball. Actually, the entire second half of this game is posted in six parts: one through five are here here here here and here.
See Also: Some terrible video of Darrell Scott, which for CU’s sake had better be in slow motion. ... Ralphie will not be contained, cuz he’s a damn buffalo. What? ... And the amateur Dan Hawkins rants will never getold.
In high school, fine, Scott, but this is Big 12 Football, brother.
- - -
Best-Case: CU had better get in all the hits it can against Colorado State and Eastern Washington, because the next month and a half is a nightmare: four of the next six games are against teams that finished in the top ten last year (West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, Missouri), and the other two (Florida State and Kansas State) are against teams that beat the Buffs by double digits. If they come through that stretch at 4-4 – which will require a serious commitment to physical ball control on offense and at least one, probably two upsets – the last four (at Texas A&M, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and at must-be-improved Nebraska) are only slightly more manageable. If it can get to November with bowl hopes intact and then take three of those last four, the improvement will be far beyond the 7-5 record indicates.
Worst-Case: Obviously, with this schedule, the team could be just as good as last year and win only half the games – it goes into the season as a clear underdog in eight of the last ten, and lost to both the teams (K-State and Iowa State) it’s probably favored to beat this time around. The offense still seems pretty patchwork – the 2-10 mark in Hawkins’ debut in 2006 was the worst record in more than 20 years and seems about as inconceivable now as it did before that season, but if the pieces don’t mesh at the wrong times, this could be the most competitive 3-9 outfit you’ll ever watch.
Non-Binding Forecast: “Just a Few Plays Away” or Bust. If Scott is the real thing, the team will definitely be better, on the order of the Barnett teams that won the North in 2002, 2004 and 2005 (the 2001 edition is a bit out of reach), but the division is much tougher now and the schedule is relentless. Give them an improved running game and the alleged home field advantage in the mountains, and the Buffs would still be pushing their ceiling to be better than 5-7.
What’s Changed. The offense goes from impossibly young and inexperienced to just young, more or less: though inconsistent and ranked in the bottom third of the conference by every conventional measure last year, there are sophomores at every position who can properly be described as “battle-tested” – Cody Hawkins at quarterback, Demetrius Sumler and Brian Lockridge at running back, Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith at receiver, freshman all-American Ryan Miller and converted tight end Nate Solder on the line. Not that I have any good idea what to make of them as a group after their first year, which was spent teetering on the brink between breakout success (27, 31 and 65 points in wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Nebraska) and maddening growing pains (20, 14 and 10 points in losses to Kansas State, Kansas and Missouri in a four-week span, followed by a blown 21-0 halftime lead in a loss to last place Iowa State).
The youth movement suggests they should be better, but from that array of unpredictability, what’s the baseline? Certainly they don’t expect to score 65 on the Huskers again, any more than they expect to be held under 200 total yards in a 45-point rout against Missouri.
For an offense with no above-average playmakers whatsoever, the key most of the time was the consistency of Cody Hawkins, which was itself a kind of cyclical beast – Hawkins’ performance seemed to work in conjunction with the success of the running game:
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
2003-07: 28-35 (18-24 Big 12)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 49 • 43 • 48 • 32 • 15</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>13 (5 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
That’s somewhat chicken-and-egg, depending on the offense, but given its reliance on play-action in the games I watched (vs. Colorado State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Alabama), Colorado’s attempts at balance start on the ground and dictate Hawkins’ performance accordingly. In that respect, the most important player this fall is an unknown: Darrell Scott is the running back everybody wanted and CU actually landed, almost singlehandedly breaking a debilitating recruiting slump (see box below) in the wake of the hookers-n-rape scandal under Gary Barnett. In all likelihood, a backfield with Sumler and/or Lockridge will be just adequate most of the time, and occasionally stuffed, as it was last year; Scott, on the other hand, has the hype of a franchise guy who can turn the entire offense around. This can be a very good offense with one reliable, central workhorse.
What’s the Same. Defensively, Hawkins’ staff hasn’t done much yet to overturn the trend begun under Gary Barnett:
There are a few exceptions, but in the least three years, especially, the Buffs can be counted on to be a little above average against the run, a little below average against the pass, and just about average overall. The eight starters back off last year’s defense – three on the line, two linebackers, three in the secondary – should fall right back into the pattern they perpetuated last year. Other than truly terrible games against the pass in 50-point efforts by Missouri and Nebraska (big yards by Baylor and Texas Tech were a little inflated and were accompanied by multiple interceptions) and a porous run D against Kansas State, that form held.
If it’s going to improve, it will probably come in the form of sacks (a meager 11 in the last ten games) and in the secondary, where the three starters are backed by four other guys who have played a good bit. But aside from maybe running back-turned-tackle George Hypolite, nobody remotely stands out, even in terms of something like recruiting hype, as a catalyst for much improvement outside of the general osmosis of becoming upperclassmen.
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. The Buffs basically recited their ABCs last spring because there were no healthy offensive linemen and a lot of redshirt freshmen at the skill positions, etc. Stocked with the fruits of eight offensive linemen from the 2007 class (all redshirts except Miller), a completely intact coaching staff and a quarterback with actual on-field experience, Papa Hawkins let loose this year with the more advanced sections of the playbook:
The most significant change during spring drills came on the offensive side of the ball. With the players now more accustomed to the system on offense, and with the timing (game clock) rules changing for the fourth time in as many years, it was time to take things up a notch. The coaches instituted a no-huddle offense, one that will produce more plays and keep the defense from making wholesale substitutions. It figures to be particularly a big hit in home games, when the visitor isn’t used to the altitude at Folsom Field. In fact, Hawkins had hoped to install it a year ago, but the offense hadn’t progressed enough for the staff to be comfortable with it.
One of the major keys to the no-huddle in experienced leadership at quarterback, as CU now has that with Cody Hawkins entrenched as the starter. Signals coming in from the other quarterbacks to call the plays from offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich will keep them involved in the happenings as well, and both Nick Nelson and Matt Ballenger did well in the spring. The pair shined on the field as well when Hawkins was one of the two learning the signals and sending them in. This alone already has the offense well ahead of this time a year ago, which is important since the offense as a whole is still very young.
- - -
The “no-huddle,” or some version thereof, is always good for some “look out, they’re taking the reigns off” articles by content-starved columnists in the spring, though almost no one actually runs it in a live game outside of the occasional two-minute drill. The popular “check with me” described here doesn’t usually shorten time between snaps and restricts substitution by the offense as well. But, you know, more power to ‘em – just keep those wildly gesturing backup quarterbacks away from Bill Belichick and Charlie Weis.
Colorado on You Tube. The Buffs led 1-8 Iowa State 21-0 at the half last November before getting stopped on fourth down on the first possession of the second half and giving up 31 unanswered points. And then, well, see if you can figure out the ending:
<object height="285" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/neKk-xb1_4A&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/neKk-xb1_4A&hl=en" height="285" width="345"></object> </p> Actually, the Iowa State play-by-play guys were on top of it: in Division I Football, brother, you gotta snap the ball. Actually, the entire second half of this game is posted in six parts: one through five are here here here here and here.
See Also: Some terrible video of Darrell Scott, which for CU’s sake had better be in slow motion. ... Ralphie will not be contained, cuz he’s a damn buffalo. What? ... And the amateur Dan Hawkins rants will never getold.
In high school, fine, Scott, but this is Big 12 Football, brother.
- - -
Best-Case: CU had better get in all the hits it can against Colorado State and Eastern Washington, because the next month and a half is a nightmare: four of the next six games are against teams that finished in the top ten last year (West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, Missouri), and the other two (Florida State and Kansas State) are against teams that beat the Buffs by double digits. If they come through that stretch at 4-4 – which will require a serious commitment to physical ball control on offense and at least one, probably two upsets – the last four (at Texas A&M, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and at must-be-improved Nebraska) are only slightly more manageable. If it can get to November with bowl hopes intact and then take three of those last four, the improvement will be far beyond the 7-5 record indicates.
Worst-Case: Obviously, with this schedule, the team could be just as good as last year and win only half the games – it goes into the season as a clear underdog in eight of the last ten, and lost to both the teams (K-State and Iowa State) it’s probably favored to beat this time around. The offense still seems pretty patchwork – the 2-10 mark in Hawkins’ debut in 2006 was the worst record in more than 20 years and seems about as inconceivable now as it did before that season, but if the pieces don’t mesh at the wrong times, this could be the most competitive 3-9 outfit you’ll ever watch.
Non-Binding Forecast: “Just a Few Plays Away” or Bust. If Scott is the real thing, the team will definitely be better, on the order of the Barnett teams that won the North in 2002, 2004 and 2005 (the 2001 edition is a bit out of reach), but the division is much tougher now and the schedule is relentless. Give them an improved running game and the alleged home field advantage in the mountains, and the Buffs would still be pushing their ceiling to be better than 5-7.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Maryland
by SMQ on May 27, 2008 10:00 PM EDT
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
It’s easy to lose sight of this, since the Terps finished in very familiar, easily-ignorable mediocrity, but if things had proceeded according to script, 2007 could have been the total disaster that began to draw the curtain on the Friedgen era: after a couple nummy cupcake games, Maryland was a favorite in only three of its last ten, and it lost two of those (18-17 to Virginia and 16-13 at North Carolina). In that context, just getting to .500 and a lame bowl game required upsets of Rutgers and Georgia Tech in consecutive weeks at midseason and Boston College in November, and was an achievement in its own way.
Of course, optimistic Maryland fans will probably argue those three games represent the real Terps, waiting to be unleashed to begin their reign of terror over the ACC Atlantic. From the outside, it just looks like a new way to find the middle: after dramatically overachieving to get to nine wins in 2006, Maryland was exactly one game under .500 in ‘07 for the third time in four years and tied with N.C. State for last place in the division. Friedgen’s seat is probably not anywhere near “hot” because of the 10-win seasons from 2001-03, but in terms of wins and losses, the program is much closer now to the state he found it in (off back-to-back 5-6 records under Ron Vanderlinden*) than to his early success.
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
The least you should know about Maryland...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007: 6-7 (3-5 ACC; T-5th/Atlantic)
2003-07: 35-26 (20-20, ACC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 17 • 16 • 29 • 35 • 38</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14 (9 Offense, 5 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
Darrius Heyward-Bey may never break out in this offense, given its limitations in the passing game, but under the right conditions, Heyward-Bey could be one of the handful of elite deep threats in the country. He’s a former track guy, good for one heartstopping moment several steps behind the defender every game; sometimes they hit him, sometimes they don’t: he only hauled in three touchdowns last year. But he’s a good bet for the first or second round next year or in 2010, and if you don’t know, just ask Miami.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>In Other News...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland clearly peaked at football in the seventies and first half of the eighties, winning eight games or more 11 years out of 13 between 1973-85 and actually opening the ‘85 season No. 1 by a stray magazine or two. This period also produced all of the best crowds in Lane Stadium history, thanks to temporary bleachers, though it’s telling that the top four draws were all from outside of the ACC: Penn State (1975), West Virginia (1983), Alabama (1974) and Penn State again (1979). For such an old school (founded 1856) surrounding by many other old schools, Maryland seems to lack one essential: a really, desperately hated rival. I guess it’s hard to detest Navy. Now, Johns Hopkins, on the other hand...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>- - -
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
What’s Changed. By ACC standards, Maryland wasn’t very good against the run in general (10th out of 12 teams, though it was just average overall because the ACC was so, uh, defensive-minded), but the run defense was probably the strongest catalyst for the non-gimme games UMD was able to win: the defense held Rutgers to 3.6 per carry, one of the Knights’ worst averages of the season, and Boston College (1.7 per carry) and N.C. State (0.6) to season lows. But then, at the same time, West Virginia, Wake Forest, Virginia, Clemson and Oregon State fairly dominated the line of scrimmage (249 per game on 5.2 per carry) in Terp losses. The difference is that the former three running games tended to be conventional, straight-ahead, back-into-the-line schemes, which Maryland handled pretty well; the attacks the Terps tended to struggle with, on the other hand (with the exception of Virginia), were the ones that relied on speed and getting runners to the outside, in space.
I’m in no position to critique Maryland’s speed on defense, which would have to be much more terrible than it could possibly be in reality to explain the problem, anyway. But I do know that when I wrote Saturday that Oregon State lacks playmakers on offense, OSU message boards flipped out at the omission of James Rodgers, the argument for whom went something like this:
<object align="left" height="265" width="345">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/oIpuEJHKOVI&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/oIpuEJHKOVI&hl=en" align="left" height="265" width="345"></object> </p>
That specific play was called back on a penalty, but Rodgers had 115 yards on just ten carries in the game, all of them, apparently, on that little speed sweep (you can see several of them here), which fits perfectly with the larger trend of struggling against speed backs. Adding to the potential trouble there is the early exit of the best athlete on the defense, Erin Henderson, who inexplicably plummeted into free agency despite early round projections, and of three-quarters of the secondary, a trio of seniors who had almost 100 consecutive starts between them and finished right behind the linebackers in tackles.
A much bigger concern is the middle of the line, last year’s strength thanks to massive all-ACC tackle Dré Moore, now a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One of the two guys who rotated alongside him, 315-pound Carlos Feliciano, signed a free agent deal with the Patriots; the other, Jeremy Navarre, is on the lighter side, relatively speaking, at 270 pounds. The linebackers make all the tackles in this defense (the starters have been the top three tacklers the last two years, despite two new starters last year), which becomes much more difficult with offensive lines no longer concerned with – or shielded by – Moore’s very distracting presence inside.
What’s the Same. Two magic numbers: 340, 25. Maryland’s offense hit both of them – 340 yards, 25 points – five times last year, and won all five times (the only other win was against lowly Florida International, with a meager 270 yards). When it failed to hit either number, UMD was 0-7. This is in sharp contrast to 2006, when the Terps won games with no apparent benchmarks or rhyme or reason whatsoever.
The most obvious pattern is the play of afro’d quarterback Chris Turner, whose inconsistency as a first-year starter dovetailed nicely with the team’s at large:
Of all those numbers, the widest and most telling gap is in attempts: 16 passes per win, 25 per loss, even though the losses were all competitive games that didn’t call for a wild, pass-happy comeback effort. Turner is another in a long line of underwhelming, within-the-offense types for Friedgen, guys competent enough as long as they can rely on the running game to set them up and keep them out of trouble. The Terps still want to be in a position to pound away as often as possible, even if it’s not particularly effective – they averaged less than four yards per carry even in the six wins, and were still able to protect Turner and give him the opportunity to pick his spots downfield instead of forcing it.
As far as quarterback fros go, it beats Donovan McNabb's.
- - -
There should be no change whatsoever to this approach despite the return of the four leading receivers, the graduation of two running backs (Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball) who have handled almost all the carries the last two years and a new playcaller, ex-Kansas State coordinator James Franklin, because a) Fridge is still the boss, b) Turner is still the quarterback (probably; see below) and c) four starters and one heavily-rotated injury replacement are back on the line. And those suckers are, in the words of Microscopic Elvis, huuuuuuuuuuuuge: 316 pounds on average, with two 335-pound seniors, Scott Burley and Jaimie Thomas, on the left side. Scores tend to stay in the teens and low twenties in this conference, which – along with the line’s spotty pass blocking last year (32 sacks allowed in ten games vs. BCS conference defenses) –won’t give Franklin much incentive to get too lib’ral with the passin’. [spit]
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Turner started the last eight games, but the job was declared wide open in the spring to give Jordan Steffy and especially ex-hot shot Florida recruit/alleged cheater/unrepentant mama’s boy Josh Portis a chance to add a little pizzazz to the proceedings. Not so much: Portis was a measley 3-6 for nine yards in the spring game, and Friedgen didn’t see anything like “pizzazz”:
"I really need to look at the tape. I didn't think any of them had the day I was hoping for. I'm looking for a factor to separate them and I really can't see that right now. I wish it was that easy but I'm hoping we got one."
- - -
So, if Turner was the top guy going in, and there was no clear separation by the guys trying to catch him, then that must mean...
[Turner]: “...Do I feel like I have momentum? Do I feel like I have a leg up? Sure. But we'll have to see what the reality is."
[...]
"Jordan and Josh are Division I quarterbacks, it's not an easy thing to separate myself from those two. All three of us are capable of playing. If I haven't outplayed Jordan and Josh then they haven't outplayed me. It's up to the coaches to make that kind of call."
- - -
That isn’t exactly rock-solid logic – it’s possible Turner hasn’t outplayed Jordan and Josh because they’ve outplayed him – although it works in this specific case, especially since the quarterback will apparently be spending most of his time handing off to Da’Rel Scott, no matter what: the sophomore ran for 116 yards on 16 carries in the spring, more than he had all of last year as a redshirt freshman, and is the heir apparent to the workhorse role.
Maryland on You Tube. The Terps lose the ACC championship to Clemson in 1985 – well, depending on who you ask:
<object height="265" width="345">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OXpJ1o0e2g4&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OXpJ1o0e2g4&hl=en" height="265" width="345"></object> </p>
Hey, looks like a catch to Florida fans.
See Also: The Tigers earn a more convincing championship over Maryland in 1988. Listen for Danny Ford at the end (even if he cain’t hear ya). ... Frank Reich brings Maryland back in the Orange Bowl in 1984, then leaves it to the defense to hang on. ... And it’s not football, but I can cross over for Len Bias vs. Michael Jordan in 1984. I’m sure everyone thought this at the time, too, but in hindsight, North Carolina’s lineup is ridiculous.
Friedgen feeds on your doubt. It only makes him hungrier. Mmmmm....crow...
- - -
Best-Case: Turtles in the Grass. Amid the tomato can games with Delaware, Middle Tennessee State and Eastern Michigan is this really interesting home game with Cal, which goes cross-country for the early pivot in both teams’ seasons. For Maryland, even optimistically, it could be the difference in a third straight bowl game and another season lost in the mire: I can see the Terps settling into their ball control game and playing defense against fellow ACC conservatives and winning three league games – say, N.C. State, North Carolina and either Virginia or Boston College, each of which should be falling back to earth – and that’s all they’ll need to get back to .500. The question is whether they can catch Cal with jetlag or something and steal a fourth conference game; if so, it could wind up looking a lot like the skin-of-the-teeth 8-4 effort of 2006.
Worst-Case: And the Bottom Drops Out. It’s impossible to not see UMD starting 3-1, but beyond that, there are no guarantees. Only two of the eight ACC foes on this year’s schedule had equal or worse records than Maryland last year, North Carolina and N.C. State, and both are generally considered upwardly mobile programs under second-year coaches. Maryland has been way too competitive to predict an o-fer, but without more consistency on offense, the disaster it avoided with last year’s upsets could come to fruition in the form of 1-7 in-conference.
Non-Binding Forecast: Middle of the Pack or Bust. I’m pretty down on this bunch. It only has one standout player on offense, Heyward-Bey, and lacks the ability at quarterback and in pass protection to keep him consistently involved as a downfield threat. It only has one standout player on defense, linebacker Dave Philistin, who the pro scouts like, but who has more new faces around him than old, and the old faces haven’t been that great. It’s another outfit that has more going for it in terms of a reputation for competitiveness in the past than it does on paper going forward.
But the Terps also don’t have very far to go to get back to .500, and have made a habit of eking out wins they objectively shouldn’t (at least one upset win over a ranked team every year of Friedgen’s tenure). They won’t be any kind of factor in the otherwise open Atlantic race, but with three readymade non-conference locks, they’ll probably need just one surprise of that variety to get back to 6-6.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
It’s easy to lose sight of this, since the Terps finished in very familiar, easily-ignorable mediocrity, but if things had proceeded according to script, 2007 could have been the total disaster that began to draw the curtain on the Friedgen era: after a couple nummy cupcake games, Maryland was a favorite in only three of its last ten, and it lost two of those (18-17 to Virginia and 16-13 at North Carolina). In that context, just getting to .500 and a lame bowl game required upsets of Rutgers and Georgia Tech in consecutive weeks at midseason and Boston College in November, and was an achievement in its own way.
Of course, optimistic Maryland fans will probably argue those three games represent the real Terps, waiting to be unleashed to begin their reign of terror over the ACC Atlantic. From the outside, it just looks like a new way to find the middle: after dramatically overachieving to get to nine wins in 2006, Maryland was exactly one game under .500 in ‘07 for the third time in four years and tied with N.C. State for last place in the division. Friedgen’s seat is probably not anywhere near “hot” because of the 10-win seasons from 2001-03, but in terms of wins and losses, the program is much closer now to the state he found it in (off back-to-back 5-6 records under Ron Vanderlinden*) than to his early success.
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
2003-07: 35-26 (20-20, ACC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 17 • 16 • 29 • 35 • 38</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14 (9 Offense, 5 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
What’s Changed. By ACC standards, Maryland wasn’t very good against the run in general (10th out of 12 teams, though it was just average overall because the ACC was so, uh, defensive-minded), but the run defense was probably the strongest catalyst for the non-gimme games UMD was able to win: the defense held Rutgers to 3.6 per carry, one of the Knights’ worst averages of the season, and Boston College (1.7 per carry) and N.C. State (0.6) to season lows. But then, at the same time, West Virginia, Wake Forest, Virginia, Clemson and Oregon State fairly dominated the line of scrimmage (249 per game on 5.2 per carry) in Terp losses. The difference is that the former three running games tended to be conventional, straight-ahead, back-into-the-line schemes, which Maryland handled pretty well; the attacks the Terps tended to struggle with, on the other hand (with the exception of Virginia), were the ones that relied on speed and getting runners to the outside, in space.
I’m in no position to critique Maryland’s speed on defense, which would have to be much more terrible than it could possibly be in reality to explain the problem, anyway. But I do know that when I wrote Saturday that Oregon State lacks playmakers on offense, OSU message boards flipped out at the omission of James Rodgers, the argument for whom went something like this:
<object align="left" height="265" width="345">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/oIpuEJHKOVI&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/oIpuEJHKOVI&hl=en" align="left" height="265" width="345"></object> </p>
That specific play was called back on a penalty, but Rodgers had 115 yards on just ten carries in the game, all of them, apparently, on that little speed sweep (you can see several of them here), which fits perfectly with the larger trend of struggling against speed backs. Adding to the potential trouble there is the early exit of the best athlete on the defense, Erin Henderson, who inexplicably plummeted into free agency despite early round projections, and of three-quarters of the secondary, a trio of seniors who had almost 100 consecutive starts between them and finished right behind the linebackers in tackles.
A much bigger concern is the middle of the line, last year’s strength thanks to massive all-ACC tackle Dré Moore, now a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One of the two guys who rotated alongside him, 315-pound Carlos Feliciano, signed a free agent deal with the Patriots; the other, Jeremy Navarre, is on the lighter side, relatively speaking, at 270 pounds. The linebackers make all the tackles in this defense (the starters have been the top three tacklers the last two years, despite two new starters last year), which becomes much more difficult with offensive lines no longer concerned with – or shielded by – Moore’s very distracting presence inside.
What’s the Same. Two magic numbers: 340, 25. Maryland’s offense hit both of them – 340 yards, 25 points – five times last year, and won all five times (the only other win was against lowly Florida International, with a meager 270 yards). When it failed to hit either number, UMD was 0-7. This is in sharp contrast to 2006, when the Terps won games with no apparent benchmarks or rhyme or reason whatsoever.
The most obvious pattern is the play of afro’d quarterback Chris Turner, whose inconsistency as a first-year starter dovetailed nicely with the team’s at large:
Of all those numbers, the widest and most telling gap is in attempts: 16 passes per win, 25 per loss, even though the losses were all competitive games that didn’t call for a wild, pass-happy comeback effort. Turner is another in a long line of underwhelming, within-the-offense types for Friedgen, guys competent enough as long as they can rely on the running game to set them up and keep them out of trouble. The Terps still want to be in a position to pound away as often as possible, even if it’s not particularly effective – they averaged less than four yards per carry even in the six wins, and were still able to protect Turner and give him the opportunity to pick his spots downfield instead of forcing it.
As far as quarterback fros go, it beats Donovan McNabb's.
- - -
There should be no change whatsoever to this approach despite the return of the four leading receivers, the graduation of two running backs (Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball) who have handled almost all the carries the last two years and a new playcaller, ex-Kansas State coordinator James Franklin, because a) Fridge is still the boss, b) Turner is still the quarterback (probably; see below) and c) four starters and one heavily-rotated injury replacement are back on the line. And those suckers are, in the words of Microscopic Elvis, huuuuuuuuuuuuge: 316 pounds on average, with two 335-pound seniors, Scott Burley and Jaimie Thomas, on the left side. Scores tend to stay in the teens and low twenties in this conference, which – along with the line’s spotty pass blocking last year (32 sacks allowed in ten games vs. BCS conference defenses) –won’t give Franklin much incentive to get too lib’ral with the passin’. [spit]
Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Turner started the last eight games, but the job was declared wide open in the spring to give Jordan Steffy and especially ex-hot shot Florida recruit/alleged cheater/unrepentant mama’s boy Josh Portis a chance to add a little pizzazz to the proceedings. Not so much: Portis was a measley 3-6 for nine yards in the spring game, and Friedgen didn’t see anything like “pizzazz”:
"I really need to look at the tape. I didn't think any of them had the day I was hoping for. I'm looking for a factor to separate them and I really can't see that right now. I wish it was that easy but I'm hoping we got one."
- - -
So, if Turner was the top guy going in, and there was no clear separation by the guys trying to catch him, then that must mean...
[Turner]: “...Do I feel like I have momentum? Do I feel like I have a leg up? Sure. But we'll have to see what the reality is."
[...]
"Jordan and Josh are Division I quarterbacks, it's not an easy thing to separate myself from those two. All three of us are capable of playing. If I haven't outplayed Jordan and Josh then they haven't outplayed me. It's up to the coaches to make that kind of call."
- - -
That isn’t exactly rock-solid logic – it’s possible Turner hasn’t outplayed Jordan and Josh because they’ve outplayed him – although it works in this specific case, especially since the quarterback will apparently be spending most of his time handing off to Da’Rel Scott, no matter what: the sophomore ran for 116 yards on 16 carries in the spring, more than he had all of last year as a redshirt freshman, and is the heir apparent to the workhorse role.
Maryland on You Tube. The Terps lose the ACC championship to Clemson in 1985 – well, depending on who you ask:
<object height="265" width="345">
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OXpJ1o0e2g4&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OXpJ1o0e2g4&hl=en" height="265" width="345"></object> </p>
Hey, looks like a catch to Florida fans.
See Also: The Tigers earn a more convincing championship over Maryland in 1988. Listen for Danny Ford at the end (even if he cain’t hear ya). ... Frank Reich brings Maryland back in the Orange Bowl in 1984, then leaves it to the defense to hang on. ... And it’s not football, but I can cross over for Len Bias vs. Michael Jordan in 1984. I’m sure everyone thought this at the time, too, but in hindsight, North Carolina’s lineup is ridiculous.
Friedgen feeds on your doubt. It only makes him hungrier. Mmmmm....crow...
- - -
Best-Case: Turtles in the Grass. Amid the tomato can games with Delaware, Middle Tennessee State and Eastern Michigan is this really interesting home game with Cal, which goes cross-country for the early pivot in both teams’ seasons. For Maryland, even optimistically, it could be the difference in a third straight bowl game and another season lost in the mire: I can see the Terps settling into their ball control game and playing defense against fellow ACC conservatives and winning three league games – say, N.C. State, North Carolina and either Virginia or Boston College, each of which should be falling back to earth – and that’s all they’ll need to get back to .500. The question is whether they can catch Cal with jetlag or something and steal a fourth conference game; if so, it could wind up looking a lot like the skin-of-the-teeth 8-4 effort of 2006.
Worst-Case: And the Bottom Drops Out. It’s impossible to not see UMD starting 3-1, but beyond that, there are no guarantees. Only two of the eight ACC foes on this year’s schedule had equal or worse records than Maryland last year, North Carolina and N.C. State, and both are generally considered upwardly mobile programs under second-year coaches. Maryland has been way too competitive to predict an o-fer, but without more consistency on offense, the disaster it avoided with last year’s upsets could come to fruition in the form of 1-7 in-conference.
Non-Binding Forecast: Middle of the Pack or Bust. I’m pretty down on this bunch. It only has one standout player on offense, Heyward-Bey, and lacks the ability at quarterback and in pass protection to keep him consistently involved as a downfield threat. It only has one standout player on defense, linebacker Dave Philistin, who the pro scouts like, but who has more new faces around him than old, and the old faces haven’t been that great. It’s another outfit that has more going for it in terms of a reputation for competitiveness in the past than it does on paper going forward.
But the Terps also don’t have very far to go to get back to .500, and have made a habit of eking out wins they objectively shouldn’t (at least one upset win over a ranked team every year of Friedgen’s tenure). They won’t be any kind of factor in the otherwise open Atlantic race, but with three readymade non-conference locks, they’ll probably need just one surprise of that variety to get back to 6-6.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Contenders: Ohio State
by SMQ on May 29, 2008 2:40 PM EDT
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
This was supposed to be the Year of Dreams even before last year’s run, before potential liability Todd Boeckman led the conference in efficiency and every other passing stat that matters, and before Terrelle Pryor, just based on the sheer amount of experienced talent across the board: the offense loses a tackle and a fullback, the defense loses an end (an early departure, at that) and a linebacker. That’s all. This team would be in everybody’s top three if it went 9-4 last year, like it was supposed to, instead of wiping out almost everybody and backing into another championship game.
Despite the crowded field of potential Number Ones this year, based on those credentials, I think OSU would be a near-unanimous favorite if it had won either of its last two season finales. The hesitancy is mainly about finishing.
Bow Down. On paper, this is pretty easily Jim Tressel’s best team, particularly in two very Tressel-esque ways:
1. The defense – fifth in the nation in scoring and total D in 2005, fifth again in scoring D and top 15 in every major category in 2006 – led the nation in scoring and total defense and was in the top eight in every category last year, including sacks and tackles for loss; it was even first in passing yards allowed, the one area that’s usually skewed for good teams that face a lot of teams trying to throw their way out of a hole. Ten starters back: the entire secondary, and their backups, and two all-America-quality linebackers.
2. Nobody yet has stopped any significant dose of Beanie Wells since about midway through his freshman year, and that includes LSU: even taking away his 65-yard touchdown run on the first drive (totally never happened), he averaged 4.2 on 19 carries for the rest of the game. He delivered a series of knockout blows when the Buckeyes fell behind in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin and broke long, demoralizing runs two years in a row to beat Michigan. The only games he didn’t dominate last year were the auto wins he could afford to leave early. He has four returning starters on the line, three of them (the left side and the center) leading the way for the third straight year.
We're going to try something a little different here. Maybe...run right for a change.
- - -
Seriously: everybody is compelled to mention him, but unless he shows up as a fully-formed Vince Young before he even gets his first buckeye (or at least late 2004 Vince), Pryor is a complete afterthought for now.
Bust Out. There’s that reason everyone is compelled to throw Pryor’s name into the mix out of the gate: Boeckman, for his impressive efficiency, didn’t win much confidence last year, especially in a few tough spots late in the year. When OSU fell behind against Wisconsin and found itself in a no-scoring slog at Michigan two weeks later, it turned to Wells, who delivered on both occasions with minimal help from the passing game. When the Buckeyes did call on Boeckman against Illinois and LSU, he committed a pair of critical second half turnovers in the former game and threw two more picks in the championship, besides looking indecisive and incapable of challenging the Tigers’ man coverage downfield. He threw a lot of interceptions (14) and had four multi-INT games, including low-pressure walks over Akron and Purdue.
Everyone will concede that Boeckman is ‘solid’ or ‘adequate,’ but that may only be with the luxury of the most consistent, attention-consuming power running game in the country.
Truth in Blasphemy. For the Big Ten, and tradition, and regional pride, and another year of Ohio’s birds chirping, flowers blooming, babies laughing, etc., OSU still has to beat Michigan on Nov. 22. But this is about getting back to the mythical championship, and where national ambitions are concerned, beating Michigan is already necessary – if for no other reason than it’s the last game of the season, and therefore a loss that can’t be overcome with time in the polls – and, for once, completely expected, as the Wolverines’ stock during the coaching transition there is temporarily at the lowest it’s been (or probably will be again) in decades. From a realpolitik perspective of the BCS, and its computers which know nothing of petty human emotions, Michigan is a fringe team, likely no more valuable a victory this year than Illinois or Wisconsin; just a means to an end.
But by any reasonable standard, as far as it can be predicted, the only thing standing between OSU and the championship game in Miami is the Sept. 13 date with USC. As I’ve suggested a couple times before, the stakes of a top five, intersectional showdown and the lingering images of the last two championship games make that game probably more important than any single game has been for any single team in years. I don’t think Ohio State can overcome any loss there; a bad loss, when Michigan is down and Illinois, Wisconsin and Penn State are just hanging out at the fringes of the polls and USC has already shed rivers of Big Ten blood in the last two Rose Bowls in atonement for the sins of its own weird losses and Lindy’s magazine is calling the entire Big Ten "Charmin soft," would be debilitating in a way no other inidividual defeat would be for any of the other contenders. Especially in September.
Notre Dame’s demise meant the Big Ten had zero impressive non-conference wins last year, and another fiasco in L.A. is just another excuse to write off the entire league, particularly its eventual champion. Which will be Ohio State, big game choker.
Of the seven mainstream polls I’ve seen at this point, there’s not one yet that ranks USC ahead of OSU, which means either the Buckeyes are the favorite in the Coliseum or no one has any faith in the Trojans to drop their schizo act against the middle dwellers of their own conference. By all means, if you think the Buckeyes have the goods to overwhelm the Trojans’ noobed-out offensive line and pound Beanie Wells through the slugfest of the century, in the stadium where SC has lost once in the last six years, they should be your Number One. I notice most of the early ballots still have the Buckeyes at No. 2, though – all but CBS Sportsline and College Football News, which opened with OSU on top – since the projected Georgia-Florida winner (usually Georgia) is by far the popular kid of the process so far.
Making the case for Number One.
- - -
This was supposed to be the Year of Dreams even before last year’s run, before potential liability Todd Boeckman led the conference in efficiency and every other passing stat that matters, and before Terrelle Pryor, just based on the sheer amount of experienced talent across the board: the offense loses a tackle and a fullback, the defense loses an end (an early departure, at that) and a linebacker. That’s all. This team would be in everybody’s top three if it went 9-4 last year, like it was supposed to, instead of wiping out almost everybody and backing into another championship game.
Despite the crowded field of potential Number Ones this year, based on those credentials, I think OSU would be a near-unanimous favorite if it had won either of its last two season finales. The hesitancy is mainly about finishing.
Bow Down. On paper, this is pretty easily Jim Tressel’s best team, particularly in two very Tressel-esque ways:
1. The defense – fifth in the nation in scoring and total D in 2005, fifth again in scoring D and top 15 in every major category in 2006 – led the nation in scoring and total defense and was in the top eight in every category last year, including sacks and tackles for loss; it was even first in passing yards allowed, the one area that’s usually skewed for good teams that face a lot of teams trying to throw their way out of a hole. Ten starters back: the entire secondary, and their backups, and two all-America-quality linebackers.
2. Nobody yet has stopped any significant dose of Beanie Wells since about midway through his freshman year, and that includes LSU: even taking away his 65-yard touchdown run on the first drive (totally never happened), he averaged 4.2 on 19 carries for the rest of the game. He delivered a series of knockout blows when the Buckeyes fell behind in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin and broke long, demoralizing runs two years in a row to beat Michigan. The only games he didn’t dominate last year were the auto wins he could afford to leave early. He has four returning starters on the line, three of them (the left side and the center) leading the way for the third straight year.
We're going to try something a little different here. Maybe...run right for a change.
- - -
Seriously: everybody is compelled to mention him, but unless he shows up as a fully-formed Vince Young before he even gets his first buckeye (or at least late 2004 Vince), Pryor is a complete afterthought for now.
Bust Out. There’s that reason everyone is compelled to throw Pryor’s name into the mix out of the gate: Boeckman, for his impressive efficiency, didn’t win much confidence last year, especially in a few tough spots late in the year. When OSU fell behind against Wisconsin and found itself in a no-scoring slog at Michigan two weeks later, it turned to Wells, who delivered on both occasions with minimal help from the passing game. When the Buckeyes did call on Boeckman against Illinois and LSU, he committed a pair of critical second half turnovers in the former game and threw two more picks in the championship, besides looking indecisive and incapable of challenging the Tigers’ man coverage downfield. He threw a lot of interceptions (14) and had four multi-INT games, including low-pressure walks over Akron and Purdue.
Everyone will concede that Boeckman is ‘solid’ or ‘adequate,’ but that may only be with the luxury of the most consistent, attention-consuming power running game in the country.
Truth in Blasphemy. For the Big Ten, and tradition, and regional pride, and another year of Ohio’s birds chirping, flowers blooming, babies laughing, etc., OSU still has to beat Michigan on Nov. 22. But this is about getting back to the mythical championship, and where national ambitions are concerned, beating Michigan is already necessary – if for no other reason than it’s the last game of the season, and therefore a loss that can’t be overcome with time in the polls – and, for once, completely expected, as the Wolverines’ stock during the coaching transition there is temporarily at the lowest it’s been (or probably will be again) in decades. From a realpolitik perspective of the BCS, and its computers which know nothing of petty human emotions, Michigan is a fringe team, likely no more valuable a victory this year than Illinois or Wisconsin; just a means to an end.
But by any reasonable standard, as far as it can be predicted, the only thing standing between OSU and the championship game in Miami is the Sept. 13 date with USC. As I’ve suggested a couple times before, the stakes of a top five, intersectional showdown and the lingering images of the last two championship games make that game probably more important than any single game has been for any single team in years. I don’t think Ohio State can overcome any loss there; a bad loss, when Michigan is down and Illinois, Wisconsin and Penn State are just hanging out at the fringes of the polls and USC has already shed rivers of Big Ten blood in the last two Rose Bowls in atonement for the sins of its own weird losses and Lindy’s magazine is calling the entire Big Ten "Charmin soft," would be debilitating in a way no other inidividual defeat would be for any of the other contenders. Especially in September.
Notre Dame’s demise meant the Big Ten had zero impressive non-conference wins last year, and another fiasco in L.A. is just another excuse to write off the entire league, particularly its eventual champion. Which will be Ohio State, big game choker.
Of the seven mainstream polls I’ve seen at this point, there’s not one yet that ranks USC ahead of OSU, which means either the Buckeyes are the favorite in the Coliseum or no one has any faith in the Trojans to drop their schizo act against the middle dwellers of their own conference. By all means, if you think the Buckeyes have the goods to overwhelm the Trojans’ noobed-out offensive line and pound Beanie Wells through the slugfest of the century, in the stadium where SC has lost once in the last six years, they should be your Number One. I notice most of the early ballots still have the Buckeyes at No. 2, though – all but CBS Sportsline and College Football News, which opened with OSU on top – since the projected Georgia-Florida winner (usually Georgia) is by far the popular kid of the process so far.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="col0">Nevada players arrested for DUIs
</td><td class="col1">Story Highlights
</td></tr></tbody></table>RENO, Nev. (AP) -- Three Nevada football players were arrested for driving under the influence over the Memorial Day weekend, including starting tight end Mike McCoy.
McCoy, a senior from Salinas, Calif., was the third leading receiver on the team in 2007 with 598 yards and tied for second on the team with four receiving touchdowns.
A Nevada Highway Patrol trooper pulled him over in Reno at about 3 a.m. on May 24 for failure to stay within marked lanes and exceeding the speed limit, the Reno Gazette-Journal first reported on its Web site Thursday afternoon.
Kenny Viser, a sophomore defensive back from Reno's Bishop Monogue High School, and Rocco Bene, a senior wide receiver and special teams player from Tucson, Ariz., also were charged with DUI in separate incidents, the newspaper reported.
Viser also was charged with careless driving after he was pulled over north of campus at about 4 a.m. on May 24. He played in 12 games last season and recorded 20 tackles.
Bene was pulled over near campus by a Reno police officer about 3 a.m. on May 23 and also was charged with reckless driving. He transferred to Nevada from Texas-El Paso and has yet to record a catch.
Nevada athletic department spokesman Chad Hartley said university officials were expected to make a statement on the matter later Thursday night.
</td><td class="col1">Story Highlights
- McCoy, Viser and Bene all charged in separate incidents
- McCoy, a tight end, was the Wolf Pack's third leading receiver
</td></tr></tbody></table>RENO, Nev. (AP) -- Three Nevada football players were arrested for driving under the influence over the Memorial Day weekend, including starting tight end Mike McCoy.
McCoy, a senior from Salinas, Calif., was the third leading receiver on the team in 2007 with 598 yards and tied for second on the team with four receiving touchdowns.
A Nevada Highway Patrol trooper pulled him over in Reno at about 3 a.m. on May 24 for failure to stay within marked lanes and exceeding the speed limit, the Reno Gazette-Journal first reported on its Web site Thursday afternoon.
Kenny Viser, a sophomore defensive back from Reno's Bishop Monogue High School, and Rocco Bene, a senior wide receiver and special teams player from Tucson, Ariz., also were charged with DUI in separate incidents, the newspaper reported.
Viser also was charged with careless driving after he was pulled over north of campus at about 4 a.m. on May 24. He played in 12 games last season and recorded 20 tackles.
Bene was pulled over near campus by a Reno police officer about 3 a.m. on May 23 and also was charged with reckless driving. He transferred to Nevada from Texas-El Paso and has yet to record a catch.
Nevada athletic department spokesman Chad Hartley said university officials were expected to make a statement on the matter later Thursday night.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
An Absurdly Premature Assessment of: Tennessee
by SMQ on May 30, 2008 11:30 AM EDT
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. It’s well-known that civilization reached its peak in all aspects in 1994, dammit, and a commitment to manly iso runs at Tennessee is just one of many important factors in restoring the universe to its proper balance. Alas, as I asked last year: when did the Vols get soft? Phil Fulmer had never coached a team that was outrushed on average before 2006; it happened in 2007 for the second year in a row, by a little more than 25 yards per game. Beginning with the worst running season in Fulmer’s tenure, 2005, the offense skewed increasingly toward Erik Ainge:
Re: the big dips in ‘06: Remember that year’s play-stealing clock rules.
- - -
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
The least you should know about Tennessee...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007: 10-4 (6-3 SEC; 1st/East)
2003-07: 44-20 (27-15 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 11 • 4 • 23 • 3 • 35</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14 (8 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
Linemen usually get priority here if possible, so I hate to overlook the all-America love being foisted upon Anthony Parker in the preseason mags. But Eric Berry did all the things a five-star superstar recruit is supposed to do: kid switched from corner to safety and still started from the second game, picked off five passes, recovered two fumbles, finished fourth on the team in tackles and was generally awesome enough to win Freshman of the Everything and force a second team all-SEC vote from the senior-loving coaches. The trajectory for any player with this level of hype and immediate impact is pretty obvious: it’s full-fledged star mode from here forward.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Not to Rub It In or Anything</td> </tr> <tr> <td>A few things that have happened since Tennessee’s last SEC championship:
• LeBron James’ jr. high graduation
• Emo
• Nineteen SEC head coaching changes
• Beyoncé
• Columbine
• Predator stars Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger inaugurated as governors
• Birth of Anti-Christ
• Heath Shuler elected to Congress
• Urban Meyer promoted from WR coach
• Joe Buck begins announcing NFL games
• Death of Pat Sumrall
• George W. Bush’s entire presidency</td> </tr> <tr> <td>- - -
* According to Rivals</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> These are not huge disparities, but they do betray a philosophy, and a clear shift in Tennessee’s mindset with Ainge and David Cutcliffe in favor of the short passing game. The Vols hit successive lows in 2005-06 in overall yards per carry, which dropped to an embarrassing 3.1 against SEC defenses in 2006, and in their failure to produce a 1,000-yard rusher in either season, which was once a birthright to the starting tailback – hell, they had two 1,000-yard guys in 2004, when Gerald Riggs and Cedric Houston led a ground attack that averaged a healthy 4.5 per carry against the rest of the conference.
Not that there’s anything wrong with throwing the ball around more often with a quarterback as capable as Ainge, but with both he and Cutcliffe moving on, the pendulum should be swinging decisively back in the direction of the old fashioned running game. Things did improve on the ground last year: Arian Foster shook off a sketchy sophomore season and looked like the feature back UT’s been waiting for, a nice tool to have when you’re breaking in a new quarterback, Jonathan Crompton, who threw a dozen mop up passes last year and completed less than half his attempts in each of the only two starts of his career in 2005, both Tennessee losses.
One thing Crompton does bring that Ainge did not: some modicum of athleticism, if new coordinator Dave Clawson is interested in implementing some of the spread option/zone read business without resorting to sticking wide receiver Gerald Jones in the shotgun with no threat to pass or catch the defense off guard, as Cutcliffe often did to surprisingly good effect last year. That’s only an occasional option, at best.
What’s the Same. The other factor favoring a return to the cloud-of-dust brawn of yore: five offensive linemen are back with at least half a season of starting experience, and three of them – Ramon Foster, Anthony Parker and hard lovin’ Josh McNeil – have substantially more than that. That trio, along with Chris Scott, who moved from right guard to left tackle, started every game last year, allowed the fewest sacks in the nation (four...four) and comes in with 80 career starts between them, almost all over the last two years.
The ridiculous sack number was a result at least in part of Ainge’s grasp of the offense and ability to get rid of the ball quickly and/or wisely (or not so wisely) when he did face pressure, but you don’t shut out the pass rushes of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU and Wisconsin without being unusually good up front. Parker got a little all-America notice after last year and is all over the place on the preseason teams this spring; Foster and McNeil look like all-SEC types, and the entire group will be in the NFL in two years barring some kind of catastrophe. That’s good for a new quarterback, and better, with a 1,100-yard senior behind them, for getting back to the smashmouth routine.
They Grow Up So Fast. One of the knocks on Tennessee before last season was the extreme youth at receiver and in the secondary, which you can still see on this year’s depth chart: of the 66 career starts between the returnees at both positions, 65 of them came last year. With the exception of now-departed safety Jonathan Hefney, the secondary was almost entirely dependent on first-year guys, one of the reasons it was – as the summer hand-wringing predicted – burned badly in the first two months: the young ‘uns were shocked for 40 points three times in their first seven games and had the partisans eyeing the torch and pitchfork store after the 510-yard, 41-point, zero-turnover rout at Alabama. After that game, though, you got one of those bye week turnarounds, in terms of opportunism, if nothing else: interceptions jumped from six in the first seven games to ten in the last seven, and touchdowns fell from fifteen to ten. By the SEC Championship, even if LSU racked up 460 yards with its backup quarterback, the rookies were helping hold the Tiger offense to a season-low 14 points (LSU’s other seven were off the afore-linked interception return). That should qualify as a strength this time.
The receivers, I dunno. Lucas Taylor was clearly the go-to guy, but Austin Rogers and Josh Briscoe were more role players whose fates seem tied to the quarterback, and therefore are not guaranteed to show up with the same consistency. Of the noobs who came in with “gamebreaker” hype, Kenny O’ Neal caught two passes and decided to transfer; Ahmad Paige redshirted as a prelude to being arrested for blazing in a parking lot in January. Gerald Jones (also caught with weed with Paige) and Denarius Moore were more involved and seem much more likely than Rogers and Briscoe to pay off as big play threats, if there’s room for them.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. Crompton led touchdown drives on four of the first five possessions of the Orange and White Game in April, including a touchdown bomb to Moore on the first play, locking down the starting job over would-be upstart B.J. Coleman – though I haven’t read anything yet about the DBs that were scorched losing their positions. No: good quarterback in a new system=good Spring, so good, in fact, Fulmer didn’t want it to end, ever:
When Tennessee's Orange and White Game ended April 19, coach Phillip Fulmer had just one regret.
"I'd like to have about 30 more days of spring practice," he said.
That's because Fulmer left Neyland Stadium feeling good about the team's progress in general and the improvement of the offense in particular. The unit seemed to catch on to the system of new coordinator Dave Clawson as the spring went on, displaying its grasp of things in the spring game.
- - -
Which means nothing, as Mark Richt will tell you, but even the thought has to put defensive coordinators on edge: all questions about the UT offense are based on growing pains from Crompton, who’s basically the only new face. If there’s more than meets the eye to him, or to Clawson pulling the strings, the ceiling for the entire group gets about ten stories higher than it already is. No need to panic because of some scrimmage – just a warning.
Tennessee on You Tube. To set the stage for the Vols’ game with Alabama in 1985, you should start with the incredible ways UT beat Bama in1983 and 1984. Then viddy the dramatic game in Birmingham en route to the ‘85 SEC championship:
<object height="306" width="360">
<embed src="http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x1xsc2&related=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" mce_src="http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x1xsc2&related=1" height="306" width="360"></object>
The rest of the season is up in parts one, two, and five. What happened to Part Four? You’ll have to take it up with oz615, if you’re man enough to dare challenge the great and powerful, etc.
See Also: It will be ten years this November from the greatest two minutes in Tennessee history, not involving Josh McNeil, anyway. ... Six hours at Neyland Stadium condensed into a couple minutes before, during and after last year’s game against Georgia. ... And before he hated immigrants, Heath Shuler sponsored anti-Gator legislation in the rain in 1992.
Best-Case: There’s plenty of optimism to be culled from the “manly iso” angle. Nobody has or will have the Vols competing for the East again with should-be juggernauts at Florida and Georgia, but then again, nobody knows how to clutch and hold and work the points like Fulmer. His best teams have always come as a surprise: the 1998 Vols were an afterthought minus Peyton Manning, but rode defense and a strong running game to an upset of Florida and an eventual mythical championship; the 2001 Vols were an afterthought behind one of Spurrier’s strongest Gator teams, but rode defense and a strong running game to a Sept. 11-delayed upset of Florida for the division title; the 2004 Vols were an afterthought with a true freshman quarterback but rode defense and a strong running game to an upset of Georgia and held on for the division; the 2007 Vols were an afterthought after a couple early defensive embarassments but dominated Georgia and held on through a bad loss at Alabama and a couple overtime scares to take the division. Tennessee has won big with this formula before; high expectations aren’t necessary, or even encouraged.
Trust us, Jon: Once you've made it this far, it's a downhill job from here.
- - -
And there won’t be any, since four of the first six games are such serious business: at UCLA, vs. Florida, at Auburn, at Georgia before mid-October. After that, as usual, things lighten up considerably, give or take the Alabama game. This bunch can’t reasonably expect to knock off Florida and Georgia with a new quarterback, etc., but it can’t lose both games, either, if it wants to have any shot at the division. A split there – a tall order, to say the least – would allow UT to get its championship on by taking care of business the rest of the way and hoping for the right combination of losses to fall in its lap, a la 2004 and 2007. Even if they miss out on another title game, the Vols can still be a strong at-large contender in the BCS (zero big money bowls since 1999) at 10-2.
Worst-Case: Early Pacific road trips have gone pretty badly for SEC teams this decade (see: Alabama at UCLA in 2000, Auburn at USC in 2002, LSU at Arizona State in 2005, Arkansas at USC in 2005, and Tennessee its own self at Cal last year, for starters), which means nothing specifically except that chronically mediocre UCLA shouldn’t be written off in its glorious Neuheiselian premiere. If Tennessee goes down in the Rose Bowl, it’s looking at a very bleak short-term future, where Florida, Auburn and Georgia will all be significant favorites and where 2-4 – 0-3 in the conference – becomes more likely than not. From there, Athlon bizarrely lists Alabama as a ‘projected victory’ despite Bama’s 24-point win last year, which certainly suggests there’s nothing automatic about the Third Saturday tilt (which is, not unusually, actually on the fourth Saturday this time). If the Tide do turn out to be victims, somewhere among Mississippi State, South Carolina and Kentucky is a snake in the grass, waiting to strike UT down to 7-5 and disappointment and the Music City Bowl or something. If quarterback is a really serious issue, the supposedly friendly schedule down the stretch is still tough enough to leave the final damage at 6-6, and the anti-Fulmer natives as restless as they were after the 2005 debacle.
Non-Binding Forecast: Our Usual Hotel, Jeeves, or Bust. If Tennessee does start 0-3 in the conference, it will be a mirage, and the Vols will be back in the polls by November, when they’ll be going about their usual second half dominance in workmanlike fashion. I don’t know if that means they’ll actually improve as the season goes on, or whether improvement is necessary for such a front-loaded slate. But in lieu of serious corruption of the UGA-UF death match for the division, that’s the line you’ll hear – especially re: Crompton – during the run-up to the familiar date in one of the Florida consolation bowls on New Year’s, whatever they’re calling them these days.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. It’s well-known that civilization reached its peak in all aspects in 1994, dammit, and a commitment to manly iso runs at Tennessee is just one of many important factors in restoring the universe to its proper balance. Alas, as I asked last year: when did the Vols get soft? Phil Fulmer had never coached a team that was outrushed on average before 2006; it happened in 2007 for the second year in a row, by a little more than 25 yards per game. Beginning with the worst running season in Fulmer’s tenure, 2005, the offense skewed increasingly toward Erik Ainge:
Re: the big dips in ‘06: Remember that year’s play-stealing clock rules.
- - -
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
2003-07: 44-20 (27-15 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 11 • 4 • 23 • 3 • 35</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14 (8 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
• LeBron James’ jr. high graduation
• Emo
• Nineteen SEC head coaching changes
• Beyoncé
• Columbine
• Predator stars Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger inaugurated as governors
• Birth of Anti-Christ
• Heath Shuler elected to Congress
• Urban Meyer promoted from WR coach
• Joe Buck begins announcing NFL games
• Death of Pat Sumrall
• George W. Bush’s entire presidency</td> </tr> <tr> <td>- - -
* According to Rivals</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> These are not huge disparities, but they do betray a philosophy, and a clear shift in Tennessee’s mindset with Ainge and David Cutcliffe in favor of the short passing game. The Vols hit successive lows in 2005-06 in overall yards per carry, which dropped to an embarrassing 3.1 against SEC defenses in 2006, and in their failure to produce a 1,000-yard rusher in either season, which was once a birthright to the starting tailback – hell, they had two 1,000-yard guys in 2004, when Gerald Riggs and Cedric Houston led a ground attack that averaged a healthy 4.5 per carry against the rest of the conference.
Not that there’s anything wrong with throwing the ball around more often with a quarterback as capable as Ainge, but with both he and Cutcliffe moving on, the pendulum should be swinging decisively back in the direction of the old fashioned running game. Things did improve on the ground last year: Arian Foster shook off a sketchy sophomore season and looked like the feature back UT’s been waiting for, a nice tool to have when you’re breaking in a new quarterback, Jonathan Crompton, who threw a dozen mop up passes last year and completed less than half his attempts in each of the only two starts of his career in 2005, both Tennessee losses.
One thing Crompton does bring that Ainge did not: some modicum of athleticism, if new coordinator Dave Clawson is interested in implementing some of the spread option/zone read business without resorting to sticking wide receiver Gerald Jones in the shotgun with no threat to pass or catch the defense off guard, as Cutcliffe often did to surprisingly good effect last year. That’s only an occasional option, at best.
What’s the Same. The other factor favoring a return to the cloud-of-dust brawn of yore: five offensive linemen are back with at least half a season of starting experience, and three of them – Ramon Foster, Anthony Parker and hard lovin’ Josh McNeil – have substantially more than that. That trio, along with Chris Scott, who moved from right guard to left tackle, started every game last year, allowed the fewest sacks in the nation (four...four) and comes in with 80 career starts between them, almost all over the last two years.
The ridiculous sack number was a result at least in part of Ainge’s grasp of the offense and ability to get rid of the ball quickly and/or wisely (or not so wisely) when he did face pressure, but you don’t shut out the pass rushes of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU and Wisconsin without being unusually good up front. Parker got a little all-America notice after last year and is all over the place on the preseason teams this spring; Foster and McNeil look like all-SEC types, and the entire group will be in the NFL in two years barring some kind of catastrophe. That’s good for a new quarterback, and better, with a 1,100-yard senior behind them, for getting back to the smashmouth routine.
They Grow Up So Fast. One of the knocks on Tennessee before last season was the extreme youth at receiver and in the secondary, which you can still see on this year’s depth chart: of the 66 career starts between the returnees at both positions, 65 of them came last year. With the exception of now-departed safety Jonathan Hefney, the secondary was almost entirely dependent on first-year guys, one of the reasons it was – as the summer hand-wringing predicted – burned badly in the first two months: the young ‘uns were shocked for 40 points three times in their first seven games and had the partisans eyeing the torch and pitchfork store after the 510-yard, 41-point, zero-turnover rout at Alabama. After that game, though, you got one of those bye week turnarounds, in terms of opportunism, if nothing else: interceptions jumped from six in the first seven games to ten in the last seven, and touchdowns fell from fifteen to ten. By the SEC Championship, even if LSU racked up 460 yards with its backup quarterback, the rookies were helping hold the Tiger offense to a season-low 14 points (LSU’s other seven were off the afore-linked interception return). That should qualify as a strength this time.
The receivers, I dunno. Lucas Taylor was clearly the go-to guy, but Austin Rogers and Josh Briscoe were more role players whose fates seem tied to the quarterback, and therefore are not guaranteed to show up with the same consistency. Of the noobs who came in with “gamebreaker” hype, Kenny O’ Neal caught two passes and decided to transfer; Ahmad Paige redshirted as a prelude to being arrested for blazing in a parking lot in January. Gerald Jones (also caught with weed with Paige) and Denarius Moore were more involved and seem much more likely than Rogers and Briscoe to pay off as big play threats, if there’s room for them.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. Crompton led touchdown drives on four of the first five possessions of the Orange and White Game in April, including a touchdown bomb to Moore on the first play, locking down the starting job over would-be upstart B.J. Coleman – though I haven’t read anything yet about the DBs that were scorched losing their positions. No: good quarterback in a new system=good Spring, so good, in fact, Fulmer didn’t want it to end, ever:
When Tennessee's Orange and White Game ended April 19, coach Phillip Fulmer had just one regret.
"I'd like to have about 30 more days of spring practice," he said.
That's because Fulmer left Neyland Stadium feeling good about the team's progress in general and the improvement of the offense in particular. The unit seemed to catch on to the system of new coordinator Dave Clawson as the spring went on, displaying its grasp of things in the spring game.
- - -
Which means nothing, as Mark Richt will tell you, but even the thought has to put defensive coordinators on edge: all questions about the UT offense are based on growing pains from Crompton, who’s basically the only new face. If there’s more than meets the eye to him, or to Clawson pulling the strings, the ceiling for the entire group gets about ten stories higher than it already is. No need to panic because of some scrimmage – just a warning.
Tennessee on You Tube. To set the stage for the Vols’ game with Alabama in 1985, you should start with the incredible ways UT beat Bama in1983 and 1984. Then viddy the dramatic game in Birmingham en route to the ‘85 SEC championship:
<object height="306" width="360">
<embed src="http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x1xsc2&related=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" mce_src="http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x1xsc2&related=1" height="306" width="360"></object>
The rest of the season is up in parts one, two, and five. What happened to Part Four? You’ll have to take it up with oz615, if you’re man enough to dare challenge the great and powerful, etc.
See Also: It will be ten years this November from the greatest two minutes in Tennessee history, not involving Josh McNeil, anyway. ... Six hours at Neyland Stadium condensed into a couple minutes before, during and after last year’s game against Georgia. ... And before he hated immigrants, Heath Shuler sponsored anti-Gator legislation in the rain in 1992.
Best-Case: There’s plenty of optimism to be culled from the “manly iso” angle. Nobody has or will have the Vols competing for the East again with should-be juggernauts at Florida and Georgia, but then again, nobody knows how to clutch and hold and work the points like Fulmer. His best teams have always come as a surprise: the 1998 Vols were an afterthought minus Peyton Manning, but rode defense and a strong running game to an upset of Florida and an eventual mythical championship; the 2001 Vols were an afterthought behind one of Spurrier’s strongest Gator teams, but rode defense and a strong running game to a Sept. 11-delayed upset of Florida for the division title; the 2004 Vols were an afterthought with a true freshman quarterback but rode defense and a strong running game to an upset of Georgia and held on for the division; the 2007 Vols were an afterthought after a couple early defensive embarassments but dominated Georgia and held on through a bad loss at Alabama and a couple overtime scares to take the division. Tennessee has won big with this formula before; high expectations aren’t necessary, or even encouraged.
Trust us, Jon: Once you've made it this far, it's a downhill job from here.
- - -
And there won’t be any, since four of the first six games are such serious business: at UCLA, vs. Florida, at Auburn, at Georgia before mid-October. After that, as usual, things lighten up considerably, give or take the Alabama game. This bunch can’t reasonably expect to knock off Florida and Georgia with a new quarterback, etc., but it can’t lose both games, either, if it wants to have any shot at the division. A split there – a tall order, to say the least – would allow UT to get its championship on by taking care of business the rest of the way and hoping for the right combination of losses to fall in its lap, a la 2004 and 2007. Even if they miss out on another title game, the Vols can still be a strong at-large contender in the BCS (zero big money bowls since 1999) at 10-2.
Worst-Case: Early Pacific road trips have gone pretty badly for SEC teams this decade (see: Alabama at UCLA in 2000, Auburn at USC in 2002, LSU at Arizona State in 2005, Arkansas at USC in 2005, and Tennessee its own self at Cal last year, for starters), which means nothing specifically except that chronically mediocre UCLA shouldn’t be written off in its glorious Neuheiselian premiere. If Tennessee goes down in the Rose Bowl, it’s looking at a very bleak short-term future, where Florida, Auburn and Georgia will all be significant favorites and where 2-4 – 0-3 in the conference – becomes more likely than not. From there, Athlon bizarrely lists Alabama as a ‘projected victory’ despite Bama’s 24-point win last year, which certainly suggests there’s nothing automatic about the Third Saturday tilt (which is, not unusually, actually on the fourth Saturday this time). If the Tide do turn out to be victims, somewhere among Mississippi State, South Carolina and Kentucky is a snake in the grass, waiting to strike UT down to 7-5 and disappointment and the Music City Bowl or something. If quarterback is a really serious issue, the supposedly friendly schedule down the stretch is still tough enough to leave the final damage at 6-6, and the anti-Fulmer natives as restless as they were after the 2005 debacle.
Non-Binding Forecast: Our Usual Hotel, Jeeves, or Bust. If Tennessee does start 0-3 in the conference, it will be a mirage, and the Vols will be back in the polls by November, when they’ll be going about their usual second half dominance in workmanlike fashion. I don’t know if that means they’ll actually improve as the season goes on, or whether improvement is necessary for such a front-loaded slate. But in lieu of serious corruption of the UGA-UF death match for the division, that’s the line you’ll hear – especially re: Crompton – during the run-up to the familiar date in one of the Florida consolation bowls on New Year’s, whatever they’re calling them these days.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
A Reasonably Anticipatory Assessment of: San Diego State
by SMQ on Jun 2, 2008 9:31 PM EDT
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. The NFL, at least, liked the Aztec offense in 2007. Only four offensive players from the Mountain West went in April’s draft, and three of them – quarterback Kevin O’Connell, a third rounder, and receivers Chaz Schilens and Brett Swain, seventh rounders – came from San Diego State. The prolific attack that suggests might come as a surprise to the defenses of the MWC, though: SDSU finished second in the conference in passing yards, but outside of a win over I-AA Portland State, the Aztecs topped 30 points and/or 400 yards of total offense only twice, finishing slightly behind the curve in yards and points in one of the nation’s more offensively-challenged conferences.
So if the Aztecs weren’t particularly explosive with draft-ready talent on hand, where does it leave the team with a ton of new starters on offense, including a new quarterback from among a trio with no significant playing time between them, and that went 9 of 24 in the Spring game? I’m not sure why that group doesn’t include Darren Mougey, easily the most experienced passer on the team: Mougey started three games early in 2006 and has pro size at 6-6, 225. So, yeah, he has four times as many interceptions (8) as touchdowns (2) over his career, was knocked out for the season before he earned his first win as a starter and spent 2007 at wide receiver, where he apparently will spend this fall, too, according to the depth charts. The only other skill player whose done anything is Vincent Brown, who caught 30 passes in the fourth receiver role as a freshman, and the passing game has to find someone to rely on – O’Connell led the team in rushing last year, which is not a testament to his athleticism, and there are no running backs who logged 60 carries or 20 yards per game in the meekest ground attack in the conference.
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
The least you should know about San Diego State...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007: 4-8 (3-5 Mtn. West; 6th)
2003-07: 22-37 (15-23 Mtn. West)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 46 • 57 • 86 • 63 • 77</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>12 (4 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
Career starter and conference tackle leader Russell Allen is the only returnee worth even an honorable mention all-MWC vote, according to the coaches, but no member of a defense as bad in all respects as SDSU's can hold up as a beacon for the team. Look instead to quarterback-turned-receiver Darren Mougey, a huge (6-6, 225) red zone threat who finished third on the team behind a pair of draft picks with 32 catches last year off an injury that cost him the QB job in the fourth game in 2006. Given the lack of experience around him, his consistency as the go-to guy is essential, although one also suspects a real standout would be a part of a doomed-looking quarterback derby, which Mougey is not.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mascotin' (We Don't See Race Here)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
I'm having a hard time keeping straight exactly what's up with the Aztec mascot, a seemingly noble homage to the vicious Mexican overlords of the 14th-16th centuries that nevertheless came under fire for its flame-and-spear-wielding, "Monty Montezuma" depiction around the turn of the century. The university suspended the mascot for a few years and wound up having to endure unofficial versions until it relented and brought back a revised, PC-friendly version of the "Aztec Warrior" in 2006. All of which I mention only to direct you to this photo gallery of the Aztec through the years, which – like all mascot retrospectives – is equal parts hilarious and disturbing, with both emotions fueling the other. It's a, uh, chicken-and-egg thing. </td> </tr> <tr> <td>- - -
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> There apparently was some optimism for running back Atiyyah Henderson going into last year, off a great start as a freshman, but Henderson wore down noticeably at the end of 2006 and was basically a banged-up third-teamer as a sophomore. They desperately need him to travel back to October ‘06 and bottle his mojo, or whatever it was that set him off out of the gate. Even if what it was was illegal – I’m not saying it was, massive frat-run drug rings notwithstanding; SMQ assumes Atiyyah is an upstanding, class-attending, shirt-ironing young man of staggering honor – drastic times call for drastic measures.
What’s the Same. Not to pile on here, but warts and all, the offense was considerably rosier than the defense, which finished last in the Mountain West in every possible category, including a two areas – run defense, sacks – in which SDSU also finished last in 2006, an indictment to the porous front seven. In fact, to say the Aztecs were the worst defense in the conference last year understates the point to a significant degree, somewhat quantifiable thusly:
The only team in the country that allowed more yards per game rushing was UAB, and even the Blazers didn’t completely fall apart to the extent the SDSU front did over the last month: UNLV, Air Force, TCU and BYU rolled up 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns in the last four games, on a ghastly 6.5 per carry between them; Air Force alone had 569 and eight touchdowns in one evening.
Given that, it’s hard to paint six returning starters in the front seven as a positive, and the coaches apparently agree: veteran front-liners are under fire at at least two positions, according to the school’s Spring prospectus, and possibly three, if you believe some of the magazines. Under the circumstances, incremental improvement is inevitable.
The Sun God Relishes the Flesh of Fired Coach. Chuck Long was brought in from Oklahoma in 2005 to be a turnaround guy – he succeeded Mike Leach as Bob Stoops’ offensive coordinator and was integral in mythical championships, BCS wins and the Most Outstanding™ campaigns of Josh Heupel, Jason White and Adrian Peterson – but is probably on one of the hotter seats in the country after two years. This is not only because neither of his initial efforts has matched the worst year under his deposed predecessor, Tom Craft, but also because attendance has dropped dramatically, from 36,000-plus on average in 2005 to less than 28,000 last year – subtract the usual bump for season ticket no-shows, and that’s probably less than half Qualcomm Stadium’s capacity. In the meantime, the program’s very existence has come under heat for being an extraordinary cash cow amid dwindling returns: the athletic department’s take from the university’s general fund is about twice the national average, and the faculty pushed a resolution to abolish football last September.
Pete Thamel is probably right that, short of a long shot winning season, Long is on his last legs here.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. Statistics aren’t the be-all, end-all, right, so the defense was not necessarily that bad. At least it’s going to be better. It must be, because otherwise, the headline:
...could be pretty traumatic. Redshirt freshman Ryan Lindley came out of the morass as the favorite to win the quarterback job in the fall, which surprised even him after a 2 for 7 performance in the scrimmage, with one interception. One thing in the kid’s favor: to the extent it matters in the murky world of mid-major recruiting, Lindley was far higher rated by Rivals out of high school than Kelsey Sokoloski and JUCO transfer Drew Westling, just by being rated at all – he was the No. 34 QB in the class of 2007, and the rare three-star signee, which gives him a leg up in the "upside" category even if things get ugly. San Diego State on You Tube. A couple guys claim they were visiting colleges in 2007, called somebody from the SDSU film department, and ten minutes later were on scene, filming this with no preparation whatsoever:
<object height="295" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wkg80sqm1WE&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wkg80sqm1WE&hl=en" height="295" width="345"></object> </p> That’s pretty much how I picture California all the time, except with Mexicans and Spiccoli-like stoners. That’s what it is, right?
See Also: Shocking, shocking footage of the SDSU party scene. ... A pack of carefully-chosen lies in the 2007 SDSU defensive highlights. God bless editing. ... Playboy presents "SDSU Reggae Sun Splash Party." Dude thinks the girls are hot. ... And someone named Mark Dice, neé John Conner, wakes up some student zombies at SDSU to the truth about 9/11 (hey, babes in bikinis know what’s up).
Best-Case: The receivers are the strength of the team, if a quarterback can make the offense go at all. Unlike last year, when they opened with Washington State, Arizona State and Cincinnati in the first four games, the Aztecs have better than a fighting chance at a 3-1 start, with Cal Poly, San Jose State and Idaho likely victims that can get SDSU halfway to .500 before October. That makes a three-game conference stretch in late October/early November crucial: at New Mexico, vs. Colorado State, at Wyoming. SDSU won two of three from that group last year, as it did in 2005, which it will have to do again if it has any realistic hope of breaking even in the finale against UNLV. There are winnable games in the league: the Aztecs haven’t won fewer than three MWC games since 2002, which puts 6-6 and maybe some rock bottom bowl game (no postseason since 1998) within reach.
Worst-Case: It’s not hard to envision complete disaster: a revolving door of ineffectual quarterbacks, a static, vulnerable defense, a disappointing loss to San Jose (probably a toss-up in reality) or Idaho that knocks a mildly optimistic start off its track. There are no certain wins in the league, though even pessimistically speaking there’s probably one in Colorado State or UNLV, if the Aztecs’ psyche is still intact by then. Long could easily be bounced after a low-scoring, 3-9 slog.
Non-Binding Forecast: Retention or Bust. The schedule is like a mirror image of last year’s brutal early run – the Aztecs trade three much better BCS opponents and one I-AA pushover for three manageable stiffs and only one likely loss, against certain-to-be-improved Notre Dame – and that alone can offset all the key personnel losses on offense. Without being a much better team, SDSU can look much better on paper by holding serve in those games and in the conference, where, again, three wins is the norm. Given the major problems on offense, seven straight losses to New Mexico, the unholy reaming at the hands of Air Force’s option game last year and an unlikely sweep against Colorado State, Wyoming and UNLV, two seems more likely. The question is whether 5-7 is enough of a step to keep Long around for another shot.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. The NFL, at least, liked the Aztec offense in 2007. Only four offensive players from the Mountain West went in April’s draft, and three of them – quarterback Kevin O’Connell, a third rounder, and receivers Chaz Schilens and Brett Swain, seventh rounders – came from San Diego State. The prolific attack that suggests might come as a surprise to the defenses of the MWC, though: SDSU finished second in the conference in passing yards, but outside of a win over I-AA Portland State, the Aztecs topped 30 points and/or 400 yards of total offense only twice, finishing slightly behind the curve in yards and points in one of the nation’s more offensively-challenged conferences.
So if the Aztecs weren’t particularly explosive with draft-ready talent on hand, where does it leave the team with a ton of new starters on offense, including a new quarterback from among a trio with no significant playing time between them, and that went 9 of 24 in the Spring game? I’m not sure why that group doesn’t include Darren Mougey, easily the most experienced passer on the team: Mougey started three games early in 2006 and has pro size at 6-6, 225. So, yeah, he has four times as many interceptions (8) as touchdowns (2) over his career, was knocked out for the season before he earned his first win as a starter and spent 2007 at wide receiver, where he apparently will spend this fall, too, according to the depth charts. The only other skill player whose done anything is Vincent Brown, who caught 30 passes in the fourth receiver role as a freshman, and the passing game has to find someone to rely on – O’Connell led the team in rushing last year, which is not a testament to his athleticism, and there are no running backs who logged 60 carries or 20 yards per game in the meekest ground attack in the conference.
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
2003-07: 22-37 (15-23 Mtn. West)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 46 • 57 • 86 • 63 • 77</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>12 (4 Offense, 8 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> There apparently was some optimism for running back Atiyyah Henderson going into last year, off a great start as a freshman, but Henderson wore down noticeably at the end of 2006 and was basically a banged-up third-teamer as a sophomore. They desperately need him to travel back to October ‘06 and bottle his mojo, or whatever it was that set him off out of the gate. Even if what it was was illegal – I’m not saying it was, massive frat-run drug rings notwithstanding; SMQ assumes Atiyyah is an upstanding, class-attending, shirt-ironing young man of staggering honor – drastic times call for drastic measures.
What’s the Same. Not to pile on here, but warts and all, the offense was considerably rosier than the defense, which finished last in the Mountain West in every possible category, including a two areas – run defense, sacks – in which SDSU also finished last in 2006, an indictment to the porous front seven. In fact, to say the Aztecs were the worst defense in the conference last year understates the point to a significant degree, somewhat quantifiable thusly:
The only team in the country that allowed more yards per game rushing was UAB, and even the Blazers didn’t completely fall apart to the extent the SDSU front did over the last month: UNLV, Air Force, TCU and BYU rolled up 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns in the last four games, on a ghastly 6.5 per carry between them; Air Force alone had 569 and eight touchdowns in one evening.
Given that, it’s hard to paint six returning starters in the front seven as a positive, and the coaches apparently agree: veteran front-liners are under fire at at least two positions, according to the school’s Spring prospectus, and possibly three, if you believe some of the magazines. Under the circumstances, incremental improvement is inevitable.
The Sun God Relishes the Flesh of Fired Coach. Chuck Long was brought in from Oklahoma in 2005 to be a turnaround guy – he succeeded Mike Leach as Bob Stoops’ offensive coordinator and was integral in mythical championships, BCS wins and the Most Outstanding™ campaigns of Josh Heupel, Jason White and Adrian Peterson – but is probably on one of the hotter seats in the country after two years. This is not only because neither of his initial efforts has matched the worst year under his deposed predecessor, Tom Craft, but also because attendance has dropped dramatically, from 36,000-plus on average in 2005 to less than 28,000 last year – subtract the usual bump for season ticket no-shows, and that’s probably less than half Qualcomm Stadium’s capacity. In the meantime, the program’s very existence has come under heat for being an extraordinary cash cow amid dwindling returns: the athletic department’s take from the university’s general fund is about twice the national average, and the faculty pushed a resolution to abolish football last September.
Pete Thamel is probably right that, short of a long shot winning season, Long is on his last legs here.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. Statistics aren’t the be-all, end-all, right, so the defense was not necessarily that bad. At least it’s going to be better. It must be, because otherwise, the headline:
...could be pretty traumatic. Redshirt freshman Ryan Lindley came out of the morass as the favorite to win the quarterback job in the fall, which surprised even him after a 2 for 7 performance in the scrimmage, with one interception. One thing in the kid’s favor: to the extent it matters in the murky world of mid-major recruiting, Lindley was far higher rated by Rivals out of high school than Kelsey Sokoloski and JUCO transfer Drew Westling, just by being rated at all – he was the No. 34 QB in the class of 2007, and the rare three-star signee, which gives him a leg up in the "upside" category even if things get ugly. San Diego State on You Tube. A couple guys claim they were visiting colleges in 2007, called somebody from the SDSU film department, and ten minutes later were on scene, filming this with no preparation whatsoever:
<object height="295" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wkg80sqm1WE&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wkg80sqm1WE&hl=en" height="295" width="345"></object> </p> That’s pretty much how I picture California all the time, except with Mexicans and Spiccoli-like stoners. That’s what it is, right?
See Also: Shocking, shocking footage of the SDSU party scene. ... A pack of carefully-chosen lies in the 2007 SDSU defensive highlights. God bless editing. ... Playboy presents "SDSU Reggae Sun Splash Party." Dude thinks the girls are hot. ... And someone named Mark Dice, neé John Conner, wakes up some student zombies at SDSU to the truth about 9/11 (hey, babes in bikinis know what’s up).
Best-Case: The receivers are the strength of the team, if a quarterback can make the offense go at all. Unlike last year, when they opened with Washington State, Arizona State and Cincinnati in the first four games, the Aztecs have better than a fighting chance at a 3-1 start, with Cal Poly, San Jose State and Idaho likely victims that can get SDSU halfway to .500 before October. That makes a three-game conference stretch in late October/early November crucial: at New Mexico, vs. Colorado State, at Wyoming. SDSU won two of three from that group last year, as it did in 2005, which it will have to do again if it has any realistic hope of breaking even in the finale against UNLV. There are winnable games in the league: the Aztecs haven’t won fewer than three MWC games since 2002, which puts 6-6 and maybe some rock bottom bowl game (no postseason since 1998) within reach.
Worst-Case: It’s not hard to envision complete disaster: a revolving door of ineffectual quarterbacks, a static, vulnerable defense, a disappointing loss to San Jose (probably a toss-up in reality) or Idaho that knocks a mildly optimistic start off its track. There are no certain wins in the league, though even pessimistically speaking there’s probably one in Colorado State or UNLV, if the Aztecs’ psyche is still intact by then. Long could easily be bounced after a low-scoring, 3-9 slog.
Non-Binding Forecast: Retention or Bust. The schedule is like a mirror image of last year’s brutal early run – the Aztecs trade three much better BCS opponents and one I-AA pushover for three manageable stiffs and only one likely loss, against certain-to-be-improved Notre Dame – and that alone can offset all the key personnel losses on offense. Without being a much better team, SDSU can look much better on paper by holding serve in those games and in the conference, where, again, three wins is the norm. Given the major problems on offense, seven straight losses to New Mexico, the unholy reaming at the hands of Air Force’s option game last year and an unlikely sweep against Colorado State, Wyoming and UNLV, two seems more likely. The question is whether 5-7 is enough of a step to keep Long around for another shot.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Freshman Quarterback Review, Part One: ACC
by SMQ on Jun 3, 2008 3:22 PM EDT
One of the regular assumptions here and elsewhere holds that, whatever a player's performance as a freshman, automatically add major gains to his sophomore projections. He had no idea what he was doing; now he does. Hence: he will be better. He'll probably be awesome, in fact, since who's good enough to start despite having no idea what he's doing? Someone awesome.
Since it's June, and we're just chugging along here, I'm going to spend the next couple weeks testing that assumption – not challenging it, necessarily, but testing it – as it relates to quarterbacks. On what basis, besides their preseason assurances that they're "light-years ahead of this time last year," can we assume young passers are going to improve?
Beginning with the ACC, that basis is "He was terrible to begin with." See freshman starters in the conference since 2000, ordered by their first-year passer rating (blue is better, red is worse):
Rix: Future so bright...
- - -
Of the nine guys on this list, five – Rix, Durant, Skinner, Rivers and Weatherford – were at least respectable by conference-wide standards; the first three guys on the list, Rix, Durant and Skinner, actually topped all upperclassmen in passer rating their first years (Rix and Skinner led the league in efficiency; Durant was second to Rix). Of that five, only Rivers, the cream of the crop, the only future draft pick of the lot, was more effective as a sophomore. None of the others came close to improving, though Durant might have, if he hadn't gotten hurt about three-quarters of the way through his second season in 2002 (the NCAA bizarrely excludes Durant from its final rankings for that season, though he had way more than enough attempts to qualify; it also lists his backup, C.J. Stephens, who didn't play nearly as much).
The passers who did improve as sophomores were guys who completely stunk up the joint as freshmen, and for the most part – with the exception of Thad Lewis last year, who persevered as Duke's only hope – were at the bottom of the pack again. That's probably the most striking thing on display here: quarterbacks generally are who they are, from the beginning. Except for Rix, who plummeted the rest of his career, and Rivers, who soared, freshman performance was a remarkably reliable indicator of future returns. Unless you've got a bona fide, next-level talent like Rivers, rampant optimism is probably misplaced.
In keeping with that, looking at last year's freshman starters in the ACC, Virginia Tech is probably in line for rewarding improvement from a hyped athlete like Tyrod Taylor, whereas North Carolina can probably expect T.J. Yates to more or less flatline unless Greg Little or whoever turns the woeful UNC running game into some kind of threat.
Of course, that's only the ACC, and only nine players over the course of seven seasons; trend-bucking is certain to follow in the other conferences. Stay tuned, as they say.
One of the regular assumptions here and elsewhere holds that, whatever a player's performance as a freshman, automatically add major gains to his sophomore projections. He had no idea what he was doing; now he does. Hence: he will be better. He'll probably be awesome, in fact, since who's good enough to start despite having no idea what he's doing? Someone awesome.
Since it's June, and we're just chugging along here, I'm going to spend the next couple weeks testing that assumption – not challenging it, necessarily, but testing it – as it relates to quarterbacks. On what basis, besides their preseason assurances that they're "light-years ahead of this time last year," can we assume young passers are going to improve?
Beginning with the ACC, that basis is "He was terrible to begin with." See freshman starters in the conference since 2000, ordered by their first-year passer rating (blue is better, red is worse):
Rix: Future so bright...
- - -
Of the nine guys on this list, five – Rix, Durant, Skinner, Rivers and Weatherford – were at least respectable by conference-wide standards; the first three guys on the list, Rix, Durant and Skinner, actually topped all upperclassmen in passer rating their first years (Rix and Skinner led the league in efficiency; Durant was second to Rix). Of that five, only Rivers, the cream of the crop, the only future draft pick of the lot, was more effective as a sophomore. None of the others came close to improving, though Durant might have, if he hadn't gotten hurt about three-quarters of the way through his second season in 2002 (the NCAA bizarrely excludes Durant from its final rankings for that season, though he had way more than enough attempts to qualify; it also lists his backup, C.J. Stephens, who didn't play nearly as much).
The passers who did improve as sophomores were guys who completely stunk up the joint as freshmen, and for the most part – with the exception of Thad Lewis last year, who persevered as Duke's only hope – were at the bottom of the pack again. That's probably the most striking thing on display here: quarterbacks generally are who they are, from the beginning. Except for Rix, who plummeted the rest of his career, and Rivers, who soared, freshman performance was a remarkably reliable indicator of future returns. Unless you've got a bona fide, next-level talent like Rivers, rampant optimism is probably misplaced.
In keeping with that, looking at last year's freshman starters in the ACC, Virginia Tech is probably in line for rewarding improvement from a hyped athlete like Tyrod Taylor, whereas North Carolina can probably expect T.J. Yates to more or less flatline unless Greg Little or whoever turns the woeful UNC running game into some kind of threat.
Of course, that's only the ACC, and only nine players over the course of seven seasons; trend-bucking is certain to follow in the other conferences. Stay tuned, as they say.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
One quick thought on that is that players aren't worse as sophomores than as freshman, but the opponents players and DCs now know a lot more about them and are ready for them. And often as freshman they were the youngest and were being bailed out routinely by more experienced players on the offense. Part of "being good" is relative to expectations. Its easy to believe someone is really good when you expect INTs and instead get a few TDs.
The usual pattern for a QB that starts as a freshman is something along these lines:
Frosh: average in performance, they often aren't that great, but seem great because the veteran receivers go out and make plays for them and they are given a manageable workload by the OC and given ample time by a solid OL that probably has had some experience and continuity. May rely on the running game quite a bit.
Soph: sophomore slump ensues, DCs make adjustments, and the seniors on the OL and at WR have graduated and been replaced, so now they have more guys their own age and experience level playing alongside them, OC gives them the whole play book which takes a while to grasp, they now have more expectations, and often come up short of them
Jr: this is the final year on the learning curve and it usually determines the future prospects for a quarterback. To this point, they have had one good year and one bad year, they have been working in the system for 3 seasons, and are now the leader of the offense instead of relying on upper-classmen. A QB with a great JR year is headed to the NFL. A QB with a good JR year will come back as a senior (possibly to try at records, awards, championships), and a QB with a poor JR year is usually a poor QB and will never make the jump to the next level and may even be pushed for playing time by a younger QB. If a QB is still shitty in his third year, then that pretty much means that any successes they had when younger were really just a coincidence.
Sr- a QB starting for the 4th year is usually pretty good (guys like Reggie Ball and Leon Jackson break down my analogy here, but by-and-large it holds) and will put up very fine numbers, regardless of how good the team ends up being. They will be drafted in the 4-7 rounds by a team taking a flier. But these guys are seldom elite and have a limited ceiling, otherwise they would have left after their junior season.
Just the way I see it.
Guys like Colt McCoy, Mathew Stafford, and Josh Freeman are now coming into their junior years. Not that I am recommending that you totally disregard anything and everything that has happened so far, but this is really going to be the year that tells what they're all about. Take a look at the QBs that get drafted year after year, how many of them really have bad junior years? Not many. I would say NFL QBs are just as likely to have had a bad/disappointing senior year as Jr year. Henne and Brohm are two great examples.
The usual pattern for a QB that starts as a freshman is something along these lines:
Frosh: average in performance, they often aren't that great, but seem great because the veteran receivers go out and make plays for them and they are given a manageable workload by the OC and given ample time by a solid OL that probably has had some experience and continuity. May rely on the running game quite a bit.
Soph: sophomore slump ensues, DCs make adjustments, and the seniors on the OL and at WR have graduated and been replaced, so now they have more guys their own age and experience level playing alongside them, OC gives them the whole play book which takes a while to grasp, they now have more expectations, and often come up short of them
Jr: this is the final year on the learning curve and it usually determines the future prospects for a quarterback. To this point, they have had one good year and one bad year, they have been working in the system for 3 seasons, and are now the leader of the offense instead of relying on upper-classmen. A QB with a great JR year is headed to the NFL. A QB with a good JR year will come back as a senior (possibly to try at records, awards, championships), and a QB with a poor JR year is usually a poor QB and will never make the jump to the next level and may even be pushed for playing time by a younger QB. If a QB is still shitty in his third year, then that pretty much means that any successes they had when younger were really just a coincidence.
Sr- a QB starting for the 4th year is usually pretty good (guys like Reggie Ball and Leon Jackson break down my analogy here, but by-and-large it holds) and will put up very fine numbers, regardless of how good the team ends up being. They will be drafted in the 4-7 rounds by a team taking a flier. But these guys are seldom elite and have a limited ceiling, otherwise they would have left after their junior season.
Just the way I see it.
Guys like Colt McCoy, Mathew Stafford, and Josh Freeman are now coming into their junior years. Not that I am recommending that you totally disregard anything and everything that has happened so far, but this is really going to be the year that tells what they're all about. Take a look at the QBs that get drafted year after year, how many of them really have bad junior years? Not many. I would say NFL QBs are just as likely to have had a bad/disappointing senior year as Jr year. Henne and Brohm are two great examples.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
A Reasonably Anticipatory Assessment of: Vanderbilt
by SMQ on Jun 3, 2008 10:05 PM EDT
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. Okay, so Vanderbilt never has any talent, right? Check the 25-year bowl drought and the C-USA-worthy recruiting rankings below for proof. Which makes it much tougher when the Commodores do lose good players, and from last year’s team, they lost a lot: first team all-SEC picks Chris Williams and Earl Bennett from the offense, both draft picks of the Bears in April, and second-teamer/two-time team tackle leader Jonathan Goff, a fifth-rounder to the Giants. Bennett and Goff, both three stars, were major recruits by Vandy standards, by virtue of being rated at all in classes of mostly anonymous kids assigned two stars for signing with a D-I school. That is, they’re extremely difficult to replace with anything like the same level of play, only good enough for three conference wins in two years, anyway. That goes quadruple for Bennett, who caught more passes in three years than any receiver in SEC history. But we’re talking quality and quantity here: the defense technically returns seven starters, but five of them of them are in the secondary – the school is counting the nickelback in that number – leaving a slightly undersized defensive lineman (Steven Stone) and a very undersized middle linebacker with "limited duty" under his belt (218-pound Patrick Benoist) to hold down the front seven. Vandy had by far its best season under Bobby Johnson against the run and in rushing the passer last year, and seems destined to drop right back to its usual low standing by both measures.
That’s optimistic compared to the potential fate of the offensive line, comprised entirely of fouth-year juniors with nary a start between them going into the year. The 2007 line was a miraculously intact group, the same set of five starters in the same positions for all twelve games, one of whom went in the first round to the NFL, and still couldn’t push the offense as a whole into the top hundred. How does that improve under five new guys?
What’s the Same. Pick a quarterback, any quarterback:
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
The least you should know about Vanderbilt...</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007 Record • Past Five Years</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2007: 5-7 (2-6 SEC; 6th/East)
2003-07: 18-40 (8-32 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 66 • 87 • 60 • 67 • 90</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14 (8 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
D.J. Moore became a scout favorite and a quarterback nightmare in a hurry: he grabbed five of his SEC-best six picks in the first seven games, and nobody wanted to throw his way anymore. He’s a nifty kick returner, too, and an odd reverse guy out of the slot on offense (87 yards on four carries), prompting the school’s propaganda department to wonder: "truly, have you ever witnessed a more complete Commodore [than] D.J. in 2007?" As few people out there have witnessed any memorable Commodores at all over the years, we’ll have to take their word for it.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>In the Beginning</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
So overwhelmed was he with sympathy for the newly freed *****, the destitute sharecropper, the ruined cotton baron and the carpetbagger impulse for messianic reform, New York shipping and rail magnate Cornelius Vanderbilt put up $1 million in 1873 – or $17,118,272.71 in modern terms – to endow the methodist-affiliated university despite having never been to the South. It was the only money he ever gave away, leaving him with the equivalent of a mere $167.3 billion and the satisfaction of having smashed the Fulton-Livingston steamship monopoly. He died four years later having never visited. </td> </tr> <tr> <td>- - -
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Well, not any quarterback – Vandy’s pretty much stuck with Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams, both pretty unimpressive overall despite Bennett’s presence. I have an aversion to any guy whose name ends with an ‘i’ myself, but Adams seems to be the favorite after relieving Nickson against Georgia last October, avoiding a killer turnover while the defense did its thing there and leading the upset of then-ranked South Carolina in his first start the next week. The offense scored 20-plus points behind Adams in each of the last three league games, which is really, like Cutler territory where the Commodores are concerned (they rarely average even 17 against SEC defenses over the last decade); they lost all three of those games, but Adams threw five touchdowns with no picks against Tennessee and Kentucky. His last start was a dud against Wake Forest, but nothing like the back-to-back flops against Auburn and Georgia that cost Nickson the job – the junior was 7 of 21 for 44 yards in those games, after a dismal effort against Alabama (5-18, 67 yards) and a four-INT afternoon against Eastern Michigan the previous three weeks. If not for a pretty good night against Ole Miss, Nickson probably would have been bounced even earlier than the Georgia game.
So though a lot of the depth charts say either/or – including the version published by the school – Adams has to be in the pole position. All things being equal, given that the offense still has no reliable running game and is certain to take its lumps again, the guy coming back in 2009 (Nickson is a fifth-year senior) likely takes priority, anyway, especially when he started out with much higher hopes as an incoming recruit three years ago.
Just keep an eye out for the blindside, kid.
- - -
Always Be Coverin’. If you’re looking for a positive, it has to be the secondary, deep, intact and easily the most SEC-worthy component of the team, talent-wise: run-oriented safety Reshard Langford is a good bet for next year’s draft, as is corner D.J. Moore, who is rated really, really high by some projections, certainly high enough to consider coming out a year early if he approaches the love he earned as a sophomore – second team all-SEC by the coaches and media despite being a virtual no-name on the last place team in the division. With Moore and Myron Lewis on the other side, the pass efficiency defense fell from 94th in 2006 to 42nd, still subpar by SEC standards but the first time since 2000 it was even close to the top 50 nationally.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. Add another name to the quarterback derby after the spring: the best signal-caller in the spring game was sophomore Jared Funk, who went a measly 4-6 but hit big plays (a 37-yard pass to former quarterback Turner Wimbley, the longest play of the defense-dominated scrimmage), later on threw the first touchdown of the day, scored again on a 13-yard run and outduelled Adams and Nickson across the board.
Funk hasn’t taken a snap, but he was Rivals’ 13th-ranked quarterback in 2006 and had a lot of interest from middle-of-the-pack Big Ten schools (he metriculated south from Illinois). Depending on who you ask – Phil Steele’s aggregate ranking wasn’t nearly as high on him – that makes Funk among the most highly-sought players on the roster, and a good bet to push Adams when things start turning south at midseason.
Vanderbilt on You Tube. Aw shit, y’all, it’s Vandy Partay time up in this bitch:
<object height="295" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ngKKnmDFbug&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ngKKnmDFbug&hl=en" height="295" width="345"></object> </p> Is it a ripoff? Yeah. And you’re still not even rich enough to watch it.
See Also: Highlights of last year’s upset at South Carolina and at Georgia in 2006. ... Even among the genre of college parody, this is weird. ... The pilot episode of Vanderbilt’s first cooking show. ... And, yeah, crank that Vanderbilt (from the creators of Crank That Snow Day). Best-Case: Can Vandy start 4-0? By any appeal to history, it cannot, though the Ohio-based Miami, Rice and Ole Miss are games it probably thinks it should take and South Carolina showed no life in last year’s upset, in Columbia. If it can get out of September with three wins, there’s a chance, a chance to reach .500: Mississippi State is the only realistic in-conference victim from that point, but a win in Starkville and over Duke two weeks later would move the Commodores one upset away – over Kentucky? Wake Forest? – from the elusive six-win plateau. That’s a lot of toss-up situations coming up ‘Vandy,’ which they have not before, but this team hasn’t made a bowl game since years before any player on the current roster was born. Almost since before I was born, dammit. I can concede an opportunity.
Worst-Case: Can Vandy start 0-4? Probably not, with the Miami (Ohio) and Rice games sitting there for the taking, but the Commodores are no stranger to 0-8 in the SEC, a very real possibility with the extreme inexperience on both lines. Duke is likely the second win, but nobody would bat an eye at another 2-10 disaster – there were four of them in a row here from 2001-04, so it would represent a return to form, as it were.
Non-Binding Forecast: Give ‘em a Scare or Bust. Most SEC partisans know Vandy is rarely an easy out, good for a couple close calls every year – last year, it was Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee, and South Carolina bit it; Georgia bit it in 2006. If Adams hits his stride and the secondary goes into lockdown mode every now and then, the team still has a chance to be competitive. But "competitive" in this case still means "a lot of non-blowout losses." Non-conference is built for success, but the big guys – especially the offensive line, never a Vandy strength at any point in recent memory and about as green as it can be – are in no position to hold up to Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, et al. As usual, it will take a real upset to get more than one SEC win, and that still only brings the final tally to 4-8. Just another year in Nashville.
A too-soon look at next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the long offseason.
- - -
What’s Changed. Okay, so Vanderbilt never has any talent, right? Check the 25-year bowl drought and the C-USA-worthy recruiting rankings below for proof. Which makes it much tougher when the Commodores do lose good players, and from last year’s team, they lost a lot: first team all-SEC picks Chris Williams and Earl Bennett from the offense, both draft picks of the Bears in April, and second-teamer/two-time team tackle leader Jonathan Goff, a fifth-rounder to the Giants. Bennett and Goff, both three stars, were major recruits by Vandy standards, by virtue of being rated at all in classes of mostly anonymous kids assigned two stars for signing with a D-I school. That is, they’re extremely difficult to replace with anything like the same level of play, only good enough for three conference wins in two years, anyway. That goes quadruple for Bennett, who caught more passes in three years than any receiver in SEC history. But we’re talking quality and quantity here: the defense technically returns seven starters, but five of them of them are in the secondary – the school is counting the nickelback in that number – leaving a slightly undersized defensive lineman (Steven Stone) and a very undersized middle linebacker with "limited duty" under his belt (218-pound Patrick Benoist) to hold down the front seven. Vandy had by far its best season under Bobby Johnson against the run and in rushing the passer last year, and seems destined to drop right back to its usual low standing by both measures.
That’s optimistic compared to the potential fate of the offensive line, comprised entirely of fouth-year juniors with nary a start between them going into the year. The 2007 line was a miraculously intact group, the same set of five starters in the same positions for all twelve games, one of whom went in the first round to the NFL, and still couldn’t push the offense as a whole into the top hundred. How does that improve under five new guys?
What’s the Same. Pick a quarterback, any quarterback:
<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; font-size: 10px; height: 1px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="189"> <tbody> <tr> <td>
2003-07: 18-40 (8-32 SEC)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*-</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2004-08: 66 • 87 • 60 • 67 • 90</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Returning Starters, Roughly</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14 (8 Offense, 6 Defense)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Best Player</td> </tr> <tr> <td>
* According to Rivals.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Well, not any quarterback – Vandy’s pretty much stuck with Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams, both pretty unimpressive overall despite Bennett’s presence. I have an aversion to any guy whose name ends with an ‘i’ myself, but Adams seems to be the favorite after relieving Nickson against Georgia last October, avoiding a killer turnover while the defense did its thing there and leading the upset of then-ranked South Carolina in his first start the next week. The offense scored 20-plus points behind Adams in each of the last three league games, which is really, like Cutler territory where the Commodores are concerned (they rarely average even 17 against SEC defenses over the last decade); they lost all three of those games, but Adams threw five touchdowns with no picks against Tennessee and Kentucky. His last start was a dud against Wake Forest, but nothing like the back-to-back flops against Auburn and Georgia that cost Nickson the job – the junior was 7 of 21 for 44 yards in those games, after a dismal effort against Alabama (5-18, 67 yards) and a four-INT afternoon against Eastern Michigan the previous three weeks. If not for a pretty good night against Ole Miss, Nickson probably would have been bounced even earlier than the Georgia game.
So though a lot of the depth charts say either/or – including the version published by the school – Adams has to be in the pole position. All things being equal, given that the offense still has no reliable running game and is certain to take its lumps again, the guy coming back in 2009 (Nickson is a fifth-year senior) likely takes priority, anyway, especially when he started out with much higher hopes as an incoming recruit three years ago.
Just keep an eye out for the blindside, kid.
- - -
Always Be Coverin’. If you’re looking for a positive, it has to be the secondary, deep, intact and easily the most SEC-worthy component of the team, talent-wise: run-oriented safety Reshard Langford is a good bet for next year’s draft, as is corner D.J. Moore, who is rated really, really high by some projections, certainly high enough to consider coming out a year early if he approaches the love he earned as a sophomore – second team all-SEC by the coaches and media despite being a virtual no-name on the last place team in the division. With Moore and Myron Lewis on the other side, the pass efficiency defense fell from 94th in 2006 to 42nd, still subpar by SEC standards but the first time since 2000 it was even close to the top 50 nationally.
Overly Optimistic Post-Spring Chatter. Add another name to the quarterback derby after the spring: the best signal-caller in the spring game was sophomore Jared Funk, who went a measly 4-6 but hit big plays (a 37-yard pass to former quarterback Turner Wimbley, the longest play of the defense-dominated scrimmage), later on threw the first touchdown of the day, scored again on a 13-yard run and outduelled Adams and Nickson across the board.
Funk hasn’t taken a snap, but he was Rivals’ 13th-ranked quarterback in 2006 and had a lot of interest from middle-of-the-pack Big Ten schools (he metriculated south from Illinois). Depending on who you ask – Phil Steele’s aggregate ranking wasn’t nearly as high on him – that makes Funk among the most highly-sought players on the roster, and a good bet to push Adams when things start turning south at midseason.
Vanderbilt on You Tube. Aw shit, y’all, it’s Vandy Partay time up in this bitch:
<object height="295" width="345">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ngKKnmDFbug&hl=en" wmode="transparent" mce_src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ngKKnmDFbug&hl=en" height="295" width="345"></object> </p> Is it a ripoff? Yeah. And you’re still not even rich enough to watch it.
See Also: Highlights of last year’s upset at South Carolina and at Georgia in 2006. ... Even among the genre of college parody, this is weird. ... The pilot episode of Vanderbilt’s first cooking show. ... And, yeah, crank that Vanderbilt (from the creators of Crank That Snow Day). Best-Case: Can Vandy start 4-0? By any appeal to history, it cannot, though the Ohio-based Miami, Rice and Ole Miss are games it probably thinks it should take and South Carolina showed no life in last year’s upset, in Columbia. If it can get out of September with three wins, there’s a chance, a chance to reach .500: Mississippi State is the only realistic in-conference victim from that point, but a win in Starkville and over Duke two weeks later would move the Commodores one upset away – over Kentucky? Wake Forest? – from the elusive six-win plateau. That’s a lot of toss-up situations coming up ‘Vandy,’ which they have not before, but this team hasn’t made a bowl game since years before any player on the current roster was born. Almost since before I was born, dammit. I can concede an opportunity.
Worst-Case: Can Vandy start 0-4? Probably not, with the Miami (Ohio) and Rice games sitting there for the taking, but the Commodores are no stranger to 0-8 in the SEC, a very real possibility with the extreme inexperience on both lines. Duke is likely the second win, but nobody would bat an eye at another 2-10 disaster – there were four of them in a row here from 2001-04, so it would represent a return to form, as it were.
Non-Binding Forecast: Give ‘em a Scare or Bust. Most SEC partisans know Vandy is rarely an easy out, good for a couple close calls every year – last year, it was Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee, and South Carolina bit it; Georgia bit it in 2006. If Adams hits his stride and the secondary goes into lockdown mode every now and then, the team still has a chance to be competitive. But "competitive" in this case still means "a lot of non-blowout losses." Non-conference is built for success, but the big guys – especially the offensive line, never a Vandy strength at any point in recent memory and about as green as it can be – are in no position to hold up to Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, et al. As usual, it will take a real upset to get more than one SEC win, and that still only brings the final tally to 4-8. Just another year in Nashville.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Freshman Quarterback Review, Part Two: Big 12
by SMQ on Jun 4, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
One of the regular assumptions here and elsewhere holds that, whatever a player's performance as a freshman, automatically add major gains to his sophomore projections. He had no idea what he was doing; now he does. Hence: he will be better. He'll probably be awesome, in fact, since who's good enough to start despite having no idea what he's doing? Someone awesome.
Since it's June, and we're just chugging along here, I'm going to spend the next couple weeks testing that assumption – not challenging it, necessarily, but testing it – as it relates to quarterbacks. On what basis, besides their preseason assurances that they're "light-years ahead of this time last year," can we assume young passers are going to improve?
In looking at the numbers in the ACC, it was clear that improving a freshman season was based mainly on being terrible in that season - the only respectable freshman quarterback since 2000 who improved as a sophomore was Philip Rivers, who happened to go on to the best college career in the group by a mile and get snatched up in the first round; none of the other freshman starters were drafted.
The assumption from that is that eventually good quarterbacks may start slow but improve quickly, mediocre quarterbacks may be initially good but then take a step back or level off, and bad quarterbacks start slow, then take a small step forward before leveling off for the rest of their careers, if they can stay on the field. The data from the Big 12 backs up that conclusion to an extent (remember, in the cases of Young and Smith, especially, this doesn't account for extremely valuable running ability, which is more or less there from the outset):
Sometimes you can tell the future, sometimes you can't. Three guys here had very high, NFL-type projections out of high school: Young, Bomar and Freeman. In those cases, you'd probably predict a steady improvement from Year One to Year Two, and in Freeman's case, that's exactly what we see: a terrible freshman quarterback (outside of leading KSU to a high-scoring upset over Texas) who was vastly better as a sophomore – maybe even a little above average, by the standards of a less pass-happy conference. We see a big leap in Young, too – but as a junior, in his world-beating 2005 season, not as a sophomore. In Year Two, Young won the starting job for good but didn't get any better as a passer. Bomar, we don't know; we just have to assume the top-rated quarterback of the incoming class in 2004 would have been markedly improved after taking his lumps as a redshirt freshman.
Damn you, Bomar, will your unrequited talent never sleep?!
- - -
In the cases of Brad Smith and Bret Meyer (who replaced the woefully erratic Austin Flynn), what you saw at the beginning was pretty much what you got the rest of their careers: Smith, always more dangerous as a runner, never had a passer rating in his last three years as high as his mediocre freshman mark, and Meyer, after a WTF, moonshot season as a sophomore, fell back below his freshman numbers his last two years. Smith and Meyer both started as average quarterbacks (from a passing standpoint, anyway) and finished as average quarterbacks. Colt McCoy was destined to fall from his astronomical debut, and did, though he didn't crash: he made a lot of mistakes last year (18 interceptions?), but his completion percentage, yards per attempt and overall efficiency were still above average. Given his very meh status as a recruit and average physical skills, the best guess is that the pretty good Colt McCoy of 2007 – as opposed to very good Colt of his freshman campaign – is closer to the version Texas will get this year, and probably in 2009, too.
Allan Evridge is penciled in to start at Wisconsin this year; I hope they're not expecting too much out of him.
But Donovan Woods? His travails are a mystery, unless you consider the much greater hype that followed him in the form of Bobby Reid, who replaced him as a sophomore and, of course, wound up setting off the most famous YouTube rant of last season. Woods' production was bound to fall in the short-term as surely as Reid's was to rise (and Zac Robinson was no slouch after he replaced Reid last year), but Mike Gundy is probably the only coach in the country with a solid four-year starter at quarterback playing safety and/or outside linebacker.
It still seems the guys who improve from mediocre debuts or hold the line from good starts are the ones with the highest expectations and the best long-term prospects for making the next level; everyone else quickly levels off. We'll see what trends hold going forward.
One of the regular assumptions here and elsewhere holds that, whatever a player's performance as a freshman, automatically add major gains to his sophomore projections. He had no idea what he was doing; now he does. Hence: he will be better. He'll probably be awesome, in fact, since who's good enough to start despite having no idea what he's doing? Someone awesome.
Since it's June, and we're just chugging along here, I'm going to spend the next couple weeks testing that assumption – not challenging it, necessarily, but testing it – as it relates to quarterbacks. On what basis, besides their preseason assurances that they're "light-years ahead of this time last year," can we assume young passers are going to improve?
In looking at the numbers in the ACC, it was clear that improving a freshman season was based mainly on being terrible in that season - the only respectable freshman quarterback since 2000 who improved as a sophomore was Philip Rivers, who happened to go on to the best college career in the group by a mile and get snatched up in the first round; none of the other freshman starters were drafted.
The assumption from that is that eventually good quarterbacks may start slow but improve quickly, mediocre quarterbacks may be initially good but then take a step back or level off, and bad quarterbacks start slow, then take a small step forward before leveling off for the rest of their careers, if they can stay on the field. The data from the Big 12 backs up that conclusion to an extent (remember, in the cases of Young and Smith, especially, this doesn't account for extremely valuable running ability, which is more or less there from the outset):
Sometimes you can tell the future, sometimes you can't. Three guys here had very high, NFL-type projections out of high school: Young, Bomar and Freeman. In those cases, you'd probably predict a steady improvement from Year One to Year Two, and in Freeman's case, that's exactly what we see: a terrible freshman quarterback (outside of leading KSU to a high-scoring upset over Texas) who was vastly better as a sophomore – maybe even a little above average, by the standards of a less pass-happy conference. We see a big leap in Young, too – but as a junior, in his world-beating 2005 season, not as a sophomore. In Year Two, Young won the starting job for good but didn't get any better as a passer. Bomar, we don't know; we just have to assume the top-rated quarterback of the incoming class in 2004 would have been markedly improved after taking his lumps as a redshirt freshman.
Damn you, Bomar, will your unrequited talent never sleep?!
- - -
In the cases of Brad Smith and Bret Meyer (who replaced the woefully erratic Austin Flynn), what you saw at the beginning was pretty much what you got the rest of their careers: Smith, always more dangerous as a runner, never had a passer rating in his last three years as high as his mediocre freshman mark, and Meyer, after a WTF, moonshot season as a sophomore, fell back below his freshman numbers his last two years. Smith and Meyer both started as average quarterbacks (from a passing standpoint, anyway) and finished as average quarterbacks. Colt McCoy was destined to fall from his astronomical debut, and did, though he didn't crash: he made a lot of mistakes last year (18 interceptions?), but his completion percentage, yards per attempt and overall efficiency were still above average. Given his very meh status as a recruit and average physical skills, the best guess is that the pretty good Colt McCoy of 2007 – as opposed to very good Colt of his freshman campaign – is closer to the version Texas will get this year, and probably in 2009, too.
Allan Evridge is penciled in to start at Wisconsin this year; I hope they're not expecting too much out of him.
But Donovan Woods? His travails are a mystery, unless you consider the much greater hype that followed him in the form of Bobby Reid, who replaced him as a sophomore and, of course, wound up setting off the most famous YouTube rant of last season. Woods' production was bound to fall in the short-term as surely as Reid's was to rise (and Zac Robinson was no slouch after he replaced Reid last year), but Mike Gundy is probably the only coach in the country with a solid four-year starter at quarterback playing safety and/or outside linebacker.
It still seems the guys who improve from mediocre debuts or hold the line from good starts are the ones with the highest expectations and the best long-term prospects for making the next level; everyone else quickly levels off. We'll see what trends hold going forward.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Mandate For Change: Texas A&M
by SMQ on Jun 5, 2008 11:32 PM EDT
Turning the thing around.
- - -
"You look at A&M, and you wonder why they haven’t gotten to the top 5. Texas has since won a national championship. LSU, USC and Florida. There’s no reason A&M is not at that level."
– An opposing Big 12 assistant coach in Athlon.
"You're not as good as they are and you're probably never going to be."
– Nike rep, reportedly, when A&M asked for the same deal as Texas.
The Catalyst: R.C. Slocum’s teams in the early nineties set a high bar – undefeated regular seasons in ‘92 and ‘94 – which eventually ate his job and Dennis Franchione’s:
The ‘98 Big 12 Championship upset over Kansas State was a final, anomalous hurrah in a more or less consistent decline since 1995 – the last year of the SWC that A&M had come to dominate. The Big 12 has been a bear for A&M, throwing several challenges it never faced in the brief window the Aggies were finishing in the top ten on a regular basis:
a) Mack Brown and Bob Stoops. Between 1945 and 1985, the Longhorns and Sooners, playing in different conferences, were two of the four winningest teams in the country; A&M ranked 86th over that span, a couple dozen games below .500. The nineties were the worst decade for both UT and OU since World War II, opening the door for A&M to make its move (with, uh, a little assistance, Jackie Sherill style; the 10-0-1 season in 1994 was bowl-less because of booster shenanigans on Slocum’s watch). By 2000, Brown and Stoops had restored the historical order.
b) Mike Leach. A traditional ankle-biter, in relative terms, has made the South a much tougher division at the same time. Leach owns A&M: he was 4-1 against Franchione in ostensible toss-ups, three of the wins embarrassing, 20-plus-point blowouts. Given back-to-back wins over Texas in his last two tries, probably no single outside force acted more decisively for Franchione’s ouster than the Cap’n.
c) A glass-eating defense. See below.
Sorry to see you go, bro.
- - -
I’m a little more forgiving toward the Franchione era than I perceive most people to be. A&M’s return to mediocrity was underway well before he stole away from probation-addled Alabama in the dark of night. Slocum never had a losing season, but with three seven-win seasons and a couple wins over Texas in his last four years, Franchione more or less held the line overall re: Slocum’s last four years. Not good enough – at least not when you’re engaged in hilarious mini-scandals for your own financial benefit at the same time. So the question for Mike Sherman is, how frequently does he have to break the Texas-Oklahoma hold on the division to avoid the same fate? Or does he just have to get back beating Texas Tech?
The New Guy: Sherman is kind of a blank slate retread from the college perspective, just another NFL guy slumming with the kids, which would put him firmly in the category of fellow straight-lipped, brow-furrowing, low pesonality pro refugees Al Groh, Chan Gailey, Greg Robinson and Dave Wannstedt. This isn’t so encouraging. But Robinson was a more successful NFL coach than any of them, despite his eventual demise in Green Bay, with three division championships in four years (albeit in the morgue of the NFC North), and he has "glory days" connections as OL coach in the better half of the Slocum era.
Sherman has already made two gestures remiscent of better days: first, he hired mushmouthed ex-Alabama coach and rumpled coordinator extraordinaire Joe Kines to fashion a promising youth movement (Michael Bennett, Cyril Obiozor, Von Miller and Derrick Stephens were all touted recruits in 2006-07) into something more like the old "Wrecking Crew" than Franchione’s defense ever managed with Carl Torbush and Gary Darnell’s 4-2-5 look:
The other change is an apparent middle finger to the shotgun-based zone read sets, the first offense I’m aware of to move away from the spread and toward a more conventional, power-oriented philosophy (although almost certainly not the last). This suits A&M’s backfield: Jorvorskie Lane is a natural fullback, not built to operate in space, and there is no discernible reason Stephen McGee should have more carries than Mike Goodson, as he has the last two years; what I’ve seen of Goodson indicates to me he can be really electric (I’m thinking of the afterburner run he put on Texas in Austin as a freshman), but he only has one 20-carry game in two years. The offense spent most of the final scrimmage running from the I-formation, and unless it plans to let seldom-used, pined-for bench superstar Jerrod Johnson run around out of the shotgun, manly iso runs seem like the natural recipe here.
Immediate Impact or Slow Burn? I’m optimistic about regime chages, generally, yet still have a lot of doubt about Sherman’s impact unless Goodson or Jerrod Johnson were really criminally ignored by the old staff, are better than the hype and bound to suddenly emerge as all-America-level difference makers. Defensive rejuvenation and a lot of low-scoring slugfests is much more likely. But I don’t see anyone without maroon-tinged scales on their eyes predicting a quick turnaround, and I’d like know on what basis anyone thinks the Aggies are positioned to compete with the division overlords in the long term.
Personal aloofness and illicit newsletters notwithstanding, I tend to think Franchione’s tenure is more or less the long-term norm for A&M, given the monolithic success of its most recent competitors over the vast majority of the last half century – since Bear Bryant, TAMU has only succeeded at a very high level when Texas and Oklahoma are relatively down, and has a long way to go to consistently recruit at the same clip (the ‘Horns and Sooners were 1-2 in Big 12 recruiting five of seven years since 2002 in the Rivals archives, and were 1-2 every year according to site’s ‘Average Star’ rating). At least to the extent that a breath of fresh air is not enough in itself to suddenly begin competing for division titles more than once every four or five years. But I don’t know how patient the partisans will be with just the occasional break from the usual string of Holiday and Alamo bowls. Even the ‘occasional break’ sounds like a best-case scenario, and just as likely to mean a ‘break’ from the December games in the same way it did with Fran.
Turning the thing around.
- - -
"You look at A&M, and you wonder why they haven’t gotten to the top 5. Texas has since won a national championship. LSU, USC and Florida. There’s no reason A&M is not at that level."
– An opposing Big 12 assistant coach in Athlon.
"You're not as good as they are and you're probably never going to be."
– Nike rep, reportedly, when A&M asked for the same deal as Texas.
The Catalyst: R.C. Slocum’s teams in the early nineties set a high bar – undefeated regular seasons in ‘92 and ‘94 – which eventually ate his job and Dennis Franchione’s:
The ‘98 Big 12 Championship upset over Kansas State was a final, anomalous hurrah in a more or less consistent decline since 1995 – the last year of the SWC that A&M had come to dominate. The Big 12 has been a bear for A&M, throwing several challenges it never faced in the brief window the Aggies were finishing in the top ten on a regular basis:
a) Mack Brown and Bob Stoops. Between 1945 and 1985, the Longhorns and Sooners, playing in different conferences, were two of the four winningest teams in the country; A&M ranked 86th over that span, a couple dozen games below .500. The nineties were the worst decade for both UT and OU since World War II, opening the door for A&M to make its move (with, uh, a little assistance, Jackie Sherill style; the 10-0-1 season in 1994 was bowl-less because of booster shenanigans on Slocum’s watch). By 2000, Brown and Stoops had restored the historical order.
b) Mike Leach. A traditional ankle-biter, in relative terms, has made the South a much tougher division at the same time. Leach owns A&M: he was 4-1 against Franchione in ostensible toss-ups, three of the wins embarrassing, 20-plus-point blowouts. Given back-to-back wins over Texas in his last two tries, probably no single outside force acted more decisively for Franchione’s ouster than the Cap’n.
c) A glass-eating defense. See below.
Sorry to see you go, bro.
- - -
I’m a little more forgiving toward the Franchione era than I perceive most people to be. A&M’s return to mediocrity was underway well before he stole away from probation-addled Alabama in the dark of night. Slocum never had a losing season, but with three seven-win seasons and a couple wins over Texas in his last four years, Franchione more or less held the line overall re: Slocum’s last four years. Not good enough – at least not when you’re engaged in hilarious mini-scandals for your own financial benefit at the same time. So the question for Mike Sherman is, how frequently does he have to break the Texas-Oklahoma hold on the division to avoid the same fate? Or does he just have to get back beating Texas Tech?
The New Guy: Sherman is kind of a blank slate retread from the college perspective, just another NFL guy slumming with the kids, which would put him firmly in the category of fellow straight-lipped, brow-furrowing, low pesonality pro refugees Al Groh, Chan Gailey, Greg Robinson and Dave Wannstedt. This isn’t so encouraging. But Robinson was a more successful NFL coach than any of them, despite his eventual demise in Green Bay, with three division championships in four years (albeit in the morgue of the NFC North), and he has "glory days" connections as OL coach in the better half of the Slocum era.
Sherman has already made two gestures remiscent of better days: first, he hired mushmouthed ex-Alabama coach and rumpled coordinator extraordinaire Joe Kines to fashion a promising youth movement (Michael Bennett, Cyril Obiozor, Von Miller and Derrick Stephens were all touted recruits in 2006-07) into something more like the old "Wrecking Crew" than Franchione’s defense ever managed with Carl Torbush and Gary Darnell’s 4-2-5 look:
The other change is an apparent middle finger to the shotgun-based zone read sets, the first offense I’m aware of to move away from the spread and toward a more conventional, power-oriented philosophy (although almost certainly not the last). This suits A&M’s backfield: Jorvorskie Lane is a natural fullback, not built to operate in space, and there is no discernible reason Stephen McGee should have more carries than Mike Goodson, as he has the last two years; what I’ve seen of Goodson indicates to me he can be really electric (I’m thinking of the afterburner run he put on Texas in Austin as a freshman), but he only has one 20-carry game in two years. The offense spent most of the final scrimmage running from the I-formation, and unless it plans to let seldom-used, pined-for bench superstar Jerrod Johnson run around out of the shotgun, manly iso runs seem like the natural recipe here.
Immediate Impact or Slow Burn? I’m optimistic about regime chages, generally, yet still have a lot of doubt about Sherman’s impact unless Goodson or Jerrod Johnson were really criminally ignored by the old staff, are better than the hype and bound to suddenly emerge as all-America-level difference makers. Defensive rejuvenation and a lot of low-scoring slugfests is much more likely. But I don’t see anyone without maroon-tinged scales on their eyes predicting a quick turnaround, and I’d like know on what basis anyone thinks the Aggies are positioned to compete with the division overlords in the long term.
Personal aloofness and illicit newsletters notwithstanding, I tend to think Franchione’s tenure is more or less the long-term norm for A&M, given the monolithic success of its most recent competitors over the vast majority of the last half century – since Bear Bryant, TAMU has only succeeded at a very high level when Texas and Oklahoma are relatively down, and has a long way to go to consistently recruit at the same clip (the ‘Horns and Sooners were 1-2 in Big 12 recruiting five of seven years since 2002 in the Rivals archives, and were 1-2 every year according to site’s ‘Average Star’ rating). At least to the extent that a breath of fresh air is not enough in itself to suddenly begin competing for division titles more than once every four or five years. But I don’t know how patient the partisans will be with just the occasional break from the usual string of Holiday and Alamo bowls. Even the ‘occasional break’ sounds like a best-case scenario, and just as likely to mean a ‘break’ from the December games in the same way it did with Fran.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Louisville AD has a Firm Grasp of the Obvious
Posted Jun 5th 2008 8:23PM by John Radcliff
Filed under: Louisville Football, Big East, Louisville
Picture a team that was one Jeremy Ito field goal away from a shot at the national title in 2006. Most of the major contributors were back on offense in 2007 and expectations were for a similar year. I'm not going to recap the season for you. I will say that I was probably more surprised at the outcome than most of the Cardinal faithful. Seems I have some sort of Brian Brohm flinch reflex.
Fast forward to six months after the season, and I think reality is sinking in on Tom Jurich.
Having said that, I don't think the rebuilding process is going to be nearly as painful as Jurich. I think Hunter Cantwell is a fine quarterback that has shown the ability to lead the team. I'm interested to see if Victor Anderson will step up this year at running back. He was good enough for Rich Rodriguez to offer him a scholarship as a junior.
The defense will surely be better with the addition of Ron English as defensive coordinator. There's going to be a lot of youth on both sides of the ball. But that's not always a bad thing. It makes for a short memory. The change in expectations might actually be a good thing for the team. What Louisville truly lacked last year was an identity. The defense was constantly guessing. The offense did put up some big numbers, but the consistency was way off previous years.
Maybe all this bonds the team together, and the coaches learn from their mistakes. Stranger things have happened. Louisville hasn't set the world on fire recruiting over the last three years, but 47th, 26th, and 43rd isn't exactly anything to cry about either. West Virginia has proven that you can win with that kind of recruiting in the Big East. And so has Louisville for that matter.
Filed under: Louisville Football, Big East, Louisville
Fast forward to six months after the season, and I think reality is sinking in on Tom Jurich.
"We're definitely in a rebuilding process," Jurich told the school's Athletic Association's board of directors. "We're very limited from a depth standpoint. The next two years ... I just want to get through them."
The team lost 12 starters and 5 draft picks. But I think this whole rebuilding thing started about the time Middle Tennessee State put up 42. There's no way a 5-7 team from a mid-major conference should be able to do that. It shows how quick your fortunes can change. Having said that, I don't think the rebuilding process is going to be nearly as painful as Jurich. I think Hunter Cantwell is a fine quarterback that has shown the ability to lead the team. I'm interested to see if Victor Anderson will step up this year at running back. He was good enough for Rich Rodriguez to offer him a scholarship as a junior.
The defense will surely be better with the addition of Ron English as defensive coordinator. There's going to be a lot of youth on both sides of the ball. But that's not always a bad thing. It makes for a short memory. The change in expectations might actually be a good thing for the team. What Louisville truly lacked last year was an identity. The defense was constantly guessing. The offense did put up some big numbers, but the consistency was way off previous years.
Maybe all this bonds the team together, and the coaches learn from their mistakes. Stranger things have happened. Louisville hasn't set the world on fire recruiting over the last three years, but 47th, 26th, and 43rd isn't exactly anything to cry about either. West Virginia has proven that you can win with that kind of recruiting in the Big East. And so has Louisville for that matter.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Who Voted You King?
by SMQ on Jun 5, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
Just to back up the skin-of-the-teeth nature of the series I did last month on the mythical championship contenders, Stassen.com's preliminary preseason consensus makes a great case for compromise:
The Buckeyes' hold on the top spot holds up even if you include some of the earlier top 25 polls from mainstream sites on the Web, though those ballots were much more likely to settle on Georgia as No. 1 than the magazines are, and the Cocktail Party winner is the favorite in general. Either way, it seems everybody's expecting three winner-take-all Armageddon games: Ohio State-USC, Georgia-Florida and Oklahoma-Missouri in the Big 12 Championship, which must be an unprecedented triptych of cataclysmic showdowns for a single season. This regular season really does look like a playoff, if not for, uh, all those other games getting in the way.
But if the favorites hold serve, oh, the drama! The bitching! Would that we could only hope...
Just to back up the skin-of-the-teeth nature of the series I did last month on the mythical championship contenders, Stassen.com's preliminary preseason consensus makes a great case for compromise:
The Buckeyes' hold on the top spot holds up even if you include some of the earlier top 25 polls from mainstream sites on the Web, though those ballots were much more likely to settle on Georgia as No. 1 than the magazines are, and the Cocktail Party winner is the favorite in general. Either way, it seems everybody's expecting three winner-take-all Armageddon games: Ohio State-USC, Georgia-Florida and Oklahoma-Missouri in the Big 12 Championship, which must be an unprecedented triptych of cataclysmic showdowns for a single season. This regular season really does look like a playoff, if not for, uh, all those other games getting in the way.
But if the favorites hold serve, oh, the drama! The bitching! Would that we could only hope...
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Freshman Quarterback Review, Part Three: Big East
by SMQ on Jun 6, 2008 2:01 PM EDT
Here we're looking at the conventional assumption that young players (in this case, quarterbacks) naturally improve from their debut season to Year Two. Through parts one and two with the young passers of the ACC and Big 12 this decade, the trend shows that assumption is true – if the quarterback is so bad as a freshman he has nowhere to go but up. In that case he tends to improve to mediocrity, or just to "less bad," as a sophomore. Kids who succeed immediately are almost certain to level off quickly unless (like Philip Rivers or Vince Young) they're bound for a very bright future. The suggestion being that, for the majority, you are who you are from the beginning.
It's not much of a sample size, but the kid starters in the Big East since 2000 reinforce that interpretation:
What can he say? Teel's just a conventional thinking sort of guy.
- - -
Teel, Cubit and McGann were truly, truly awful in their first years, but Teel may be the best example of the conventional wisdom of steady growth in any of the three conferences so far: he improved substantially as a sophomore and to about the same degree as a junior, again pushing every number upwards and finishing with an impressive efficiency rating of 145 – albeit with the aid of a strong power running game and some misleading eviscerations of bottom-feeders like Buffalo, Norfolk State, Syracuse and Army. He remains the exception, though: Cubit transferred to Western Michigan (following his dad, who was hired as head coach at WMU), McGann had an abysmal TD:INT as a senior of 3:13 for Temple and Grutza, who shared the job with Nick Davila his first two years anyway, sat behind Ben Mauk last year and will probably be the underdog to ex-Notre Damer Demetrius Jones this year.
As long as USF relies on him for everything, with no consistent running game whatsoever, I would expect a fringe recruit/prop prospect Matt Grothe to remain within the window of his first two years. That leaves the greatest improvement, again, to the best player of the lot: Pat White may not be anywhere near an NFL future, but if you think of his passing statistics as mainly a reflection of the respect defenses have to pay to his athleticism by sacrificing their position to defend the pass, it was quickly obvious what a special player White was going to be. But you didn't need the numbers to tell you that.
We'll move on next with the Big Ten, including Chad Henne, Bret Basanez and the immortal Zack Mills.
Here we're looking at the conventional assumption that young players (in this case, quarterbacks) naturally improve from their debut season to Year Two. Through parts one and two with the young passers of the ACC and Big 12 this decade, the trend shows that assumption is true – if the quarterback is so bad as a freshman he has nowhere to go but up. In that case he tends to improve to mediocrity, or just to "less bad," as a sophomore. Kids who succeed immediately are almost certain to level off quickly unless (like Philip Rivers or Vince Young) they're bound for a very bright future. The suggestion being that, for the majority, you are who you are from the beginning.
It's not much of a sample size, but the kid starters in the Big East since 2000 reinforce that interpretation:
What can he say? Teel's just a conventional thinking sort of guy.
- - -
Teel, Cubit and McGann were truly, truly awful in their first years, but Teel may be the best example of the conventional wisdom of steady growth in any of the three conferences so far: he improved substantially as a sophomore and to about the same degree as a junior, again pushing every number upwards and finishing with an impressive efficiency rating of 145 – albeit with the aid of a strong power running game and some misleading eviscerations of bottom-feeders like Buffalo, Norfolk State, Syracuse and Army. He remains the exception, though: Cubit transferred to Western Michigan (following his dad, who was hired as head coach at WMU), McGann had an abysmal TD:INT as a senior of 3:13 for Temple and Grutza, who shared the job with Nick Davila his first two years anyway, sat behind Ben Mauk last year and will probably be the underdog to ex-Notre Damer Demetrius Jones this year.
As long as USF relies on him for everything, with no consistent running game whatsoever, I would expect a fringe recruit/prop prospect Matt Grothe to remain within the window of his first two years. That leaves the greatest improvement, again, to the best player of the lot: Pat White may not be anywhere near an NFL future, but if you think of his passing statistics as mainly a reflection of the respect defenses have to pay to his athleticism by sacrificing their position to defend the pass, it was quickly obvious what a special player White was going to be. But you didn't need the numbers to tell you that.
We'll move on next with the Big Ten, including Chad Henne, Bret Basanez and the immortal Zack Mills.
