Italian Serie A 2014-2015 Plays and Thoughts

[Toronto_Mike]

I have not focused on the Serie A in a few years simply because value had diminished with Juve running away with it, but I think this is going to be a very very profitable year.
A couple factors to consider when wagering in the Serie A, there are a lot of derbies whether it's local city or region Italy is a country that is separated by local pride. Sicilians, Romans, Sardinians don't even call themselves Italians.
Around the closing months of the season you'll see some "fishy" prices primarily on the draws this is usually in part to a lot of under the desk handshake between the two clubs to ensure both teams don't get relegated.
Yes Serie A is the king of shadiness and they aren't afraid to hide it, like anything you wager on, pick your spots.

Home/Away:
The Serie A is a very home dominant league, the smaller clubs can be very valuable to wager on when the bigger clubs come to visit. Over the last few years the games have averaged a 45%-25%-30%, so it's not like there are a lot of draws in this league as well. When a big club travels to a smaller stadium you can be damn assured that there will be mayhem and the home club will be up to the challenge. Also places such as Cagliari and Palermo are not part of the mainland and the travel can be a nuisance.

Over/Unders:
When wagering the totals in Serie A, don't be afraid to play the overs. The first thing that most bettors assume is that Italian teams play very defensive football. The totals get adjusted and thus making it more enticing to play overs with very very juicy odds. There are some teams that lack a potent attack, creativity, and a defensive manager, but a lot of teams that are very "home" friendly generally have a very good attack.

Best Home teams to bet on: (please remember this is based on teams that can cover the handicap as oppose to their overall record at home)
Lazio
Parma
Cagliari
Sampdoria
Palermo
Udinese

Best Road teams to bet on:
Roma
Napoli
Inter
Fiorentina

Best Over teams: (These teams generally have an attacking style, some do have a very stingy defense while some leave the back fairly open)
Sampdoria
Palermo
Roma
Fiorentina
Napoli

Overpriced: (These teams will be over priced due to their name)
AC Milan - both road and away
Juventus - Home

Here are a few Derbies to take note: (City and Historical)

Title Contenders; expect these teams to be in the top 5 at the end of the season
Roma
Inter
Juventus
Napoli

City:
Inter Milan vs AC Milan
Roma vs Lazio
Torino vs Juventus
Sampdoria vs Genoa

The following are teams, when playing against each other, usually draw big crowds and are rivals:
Inter Milan
AC Milan
Juventus
Napoli
Roma
Lazio
Fiorentina

These are just my opinion on this league, if you wager enough on it you will see some tendencies and really odd prices you can take advantage of.
GL this season folks

 

[Toronto_Mike]

I will be wagering between 1-5u

Roma vs Fiorentina
Over 2.5 @ 1.90 (1u)

Palermo vs Sampdoria
Over 2.5 @ 2.30 (3u)
Both teams to score @ 2.01 (1u)
My favourite play of the weekend, two teams who I rate in this current situation, one depends on home comforts, the other does not defend to win games.
Palermo is back in the Serie A after a year in Serie B where they won the league so that meant automatic qualification. They were one of the favs to immediately come back to the league and rightfully so, they didn't lose too much quality and retained the likes of Barreto and Hernandez...although the latter is subject to a transfer to England.
Sampdoria will use a traditional 4-4-2 formation, with Eder being one of their key players. Currently in his prime Eder has been on form through preseason along with Okaka, the team has had plenty of opportunity to gel. They haven't made any real significant signings that would change the attack. So expect a very similar squad with one of the worse defences in the league. A good attack and a shit D makes for a very suitable over team.
The Stadio Renzo Barbera should be packed, and if this team wants to still be in the Serie A they will need to ensure that the points come from home and make it a tough place to play again. Palermo plays a rather crowded midfield however when playing against a team that can press they will concede. I expect a 2-1 type of game as I don't see either team shutting one another out.

AC Milan vs Lazio
Lazio +0.5 @ 1.86 (1u)

Udinese vs Empoli
Udinese ML @ 1.83 (2u)

 

[Pyppurs]

gl Tmike

:cheers3:

 

[guaranteeed]

gl tmike

great info in that 1st post

 

[EFC1878]

That Roma total jumped out at me immediately. Also liked Lazio getting a half goal, as well. Hadn't looked at the Palermo match until seeing you being so strong on it. After looking into it a bit, I'm on board (esp. at that juice).

Have been considering both teams to score (currently -125 at 5dimes) on the Roma match, but might just ride out the over. Still contemplating.

 

[braves]

awesome Mike...Great stuff

 

[casual]

GL TMike

 

[~Utah]

great info mike

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Skipped the last round glad I did. There are a few games I really like here.

Udinese/Napoli o2.5 @ 2.05 (3u)
Both teams to score? Yes @ 1.83 (2u)

Sassuolo/Sampdoria o2.5 @ 2.10 (3u)
Both teams to score? Yes @ 1.80 (2u)

Genoa 0 @ 2.41 (1u)